**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.
An intriguing matchup in Knoxville and a clash in KC highlight tonight’s schedule. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.
USC @ #17 Tennessee – 7 pm on ESPN3.com/ESPN FullCourt (***)
All of a sudden this has become a really interesting basketball game. Each team is headed in the opposite direction with USC coming in confident after a close loss at Kansas which saw the debut of Jio Fontan while Tennessee has lost two straight after starting 7-0. Fontan played well for the Trojans but five turnovers did not help the cause in his first game since transferring from Fordham. USC will look to slow down the pace of this game on the road against the up-tempo Volunteers. The Trojans are rated #283 in tempo and should have an edge rebounding wise with Alex Stepheson and Nikola Vucevic up front. Stepheson is a key player in this game. Coming off a season-high 18-point performance at Kansas, Kevin O’Neill needs his big man to be a presence inside against Tennessee’s Brian Williams. Stepheson is more talented offensively but he’ll have to work hard to get off quality shots against Williams. The rebounding battle is a huge factor in this game with USC coming in at #13 in defensive rebounding and Tennessee #16 in offensive rebounding. USC has to control the glass in order to win and can’t afford careless turnovers, giving the Vols extra possessions. Another area to watch is free throws. Tennessee’s stellar free throw rate has fallen in recent games but it still ranks #6 in the country. The problem is they foul a lot and put their opponent on the line at a pretty good clip as well. USC has a decent defensive free throw rate so keeping Tennessee off the line will give them a much better chance to win. Bruce Pearl now has 6’6 wing Jeronne Maymon eligible, a transfer from Marquette. He’ll add depth to the Volunteer rotation but the key player that has to get going is Scotty Hopson, just 6-19 from the floor in the Charlotte loss. When Hopson is on, Tennessee is awfully tough to beat. With Hopson playing well, teams can’t back off him and must spread the floor defensively, opening up holes where other players can take advantage. Another big player for Tennessee is freshman Tobias Harris. Going up against the taller USC defenders inside, Harris may look more towards his mid-range game in this contest. The Trojans won’t be intimidated after playing so well at Allen Fieldhouse. They’ve been up and down however, having knocked off Texas but losing to the likes of TCU and Bradley among others. Tennessee is a seven point favorite and should win, but this game is basically unpredictable after what we’ve seen from these two teams over this past week.
UNLV vs. #14 Kansas State (in Kansas City) – 9 pm on ESPN2 (****)
This is a huge game for both teams as the loser will pick up their third loss of the season. Each team has seen their offense falter recently. UNLV’s effective field goal percentage dropped quite a bit over their last two games while Kansas State’s offense did essentially nothing in a loss to Florida on Saturday. The Wildcats put up just 44 points after taking a 20-8 lead to start the game and missing 19 of 20 shots at one point. In fact, Kansas State hasn’t cracked 70 points in three of their last four games. One thing the Wildcats do very well is defend and rebound, ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency and offensive rebounding percentage. Kansas State has to get a consistent third option on offense. Curtis Kelly can be that guy but he was ineffective in only 19 minutes against Florida. As for UNLV, the Rebels do a great job inside the arc and that’s where they need to take advantage of Kansas State tonight. Lon Kruger’s team is #8 in two point offense and #22 in two point defense. They get 57% of their points from two point range led by Chace Stanback. Though he’s struggled a bit in UNLV’s recent games, Stanback can also take his game outside where he’s a 38% three point shooter. Kansas State has to do a good job defending the interior in order to win, otherwise UNLV will run rampant inside. With a capable point guard in Oscar Bellfield and three other solid starters, Kruger has a balanced team that can put up points in a hurry when they’re clicking. For Kansas State, Jacob Pullen has simply got to play better. He looks nothing like the All-American candidate he was hyped up to be though he still leads the team in scoring by a wide margin. He’s scored 19 points in each of the last two games but has shot just 11-34 (32%). When he’s off, the opponent can lock up Rodney McGruder making Kansas State incredibly weak on offense. One area to watch in this game is turnovers, specifically how well UNLV does in forcing K-State to give the ball away. The Rebels rank #15 in defensive turnover percentage while Kansas State is #209 in offensive turnover percentage. Should they turn it over often the Wildcats can make up for it on the glass where they should hold an advantage, turning rebounds into extra offensive opportunities. As everyone knows with Kansas State, should this game be close towards the end the Wildcats are an awful free throw shooting team. Playing in front of what should be a partisan crowd, Kansas State should win this game. However, another weak performance on the offensive end will keep UNLV in this right until the very end. The Rebels are talented and have what it takes to win this game. We predict this one will go down to the wire with free throws deciding the outcome.
Northwestern @ St. John’s – 9:30 pm on MSG (***)
Each team won on Monday night to advance to the finals of the MSG Holiday Festival. How they won was totally different as Northwestern exploded offensively against St. Francis (NY) while St. John’s struggled with Davidson on their home floor at the Garden. Northwestern is a terrific offensive team behind John Shurna, shooting a ridiculous 64% overall and 23-37 (62%) from three while averaging 24 PPG. He’s not the only one who can score however. The Wildcats have point guard Michael Thompson (16 PPG/5 APG) and Drew Crawford anchoring their offense as well. Crawford almost had a triple-double against St. Francis, scoring 25 points while grabbing nine rebounds and dishing out eight assists. NU is #1 in the country in three point percentage and tenth from inside the arc making them dangerous anywhere on the floor. Bill Carmody runs his Princeton-style offense from his days with the Tigers, protecting the ball well and scoring efficiently. Northwestern gets 36% of its production from the three point line and that should continue against a St. John’s defense ranked #301 against the trey. St. John’s opponents get 37% of their points from behind the arc, a troubling statistic for this game if you’re a Red Storm fan. Northwestern is also vulnerable defensively, ranked a very mediocre #123 in defensive efficiency. However, the Wildcats can score at will, something the Red Storm cannot do. D.J. Kennedy is the best player for St. John’s (17/10 vs. Davidson) but he desperately needs help from guys like Dwight Hardy who is really struggling when it comes to the three ball. Each team protects the ball very well so Steve Lavin can’t count on extra possessions created through turnovers. Aside from being home, St. John’s is in a tough spot here. They love to slow the game down and turn it into a mistake filled slop-fest but that’ll be very hard to do against an experienced and disciplined Northwestern offense. The Wildcats play slow as well but they’re so fundamentally sound that it’ll be difficult for them to fall into the St. John’s trap. While Kennedy played well against Davidson, the rest of the team shot just 38% from the floor. The Johnnies need an offensive explosion to have any chance and hope that Northwestern has a bad night shooting the ball. St. John’s should have a rebounding edge against an NU team that averages just 32 RPG but that won’t be enough. This is a bad matchup for St. John’s and considering how they’ve played, we can’t see them winning this one, even at home.