Over the past two weeks three of the premier college basketball programs in the country had been hit by scandals (Kentucky with the ongoing Eric Bledsoe saga, Kansas with a ticket scam, and Connecticut with…we don’t even know where to begin). The latest college powerhouse — USC — may not be in the same realm of those schools in terms of basketball heritage, but it may send bigger shock waves through the NCAA landscape than any decision by the NCAA in years when the NCAA announces its decision on punishing the school on Friday. While the headlines of this proceeding will center around alleged improprieties involving Heisman Trophy-winning running back Reggie Bush, the case of O.J. Mayo and the infamous Rodney Guillory could also be be brought up. The Trojans have already self-imposed sanctions on themselves stemming from the Mayo case, but are continuing to contest the allegations against Bush and his family. Although any punishments levied would be against the football program as “repeat offenders” since they were sanctioned in 2001 and the Bush era (2003-2005) falls within the 5-year window the sanctions might have significant ramification for all Trojan programs. Beyond the obvious direct impact of taking back the 2004 BCS title, Bush’s 2005 Heisman trophy, and essentially erasing the highly-controversial USC dynasty from the record books, a harsh verdict would be a blow to all USC athletic programs and provide strong ammunition for every team recruiting against the Trojans in the coming years. While many readers are undoubtedly convinced that the NCAA will only impose superficial sanctions on the Trojans there is a chance that they may come down harder than expected particularly now that both USC programs have fallen on (relatively) hard times and the NCAA would not be losing as much of a cash cow as it would have had they sanctioned the Trojans two years ago.
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No wonder Pete Carroll bolted this spring...
Not a hair will be harmed on USC's football head. The basketball program could receive further sanctions because the football team won't. The NCAA does not want to vacate a national title, a Heisman trophy, or keep USC off TV and out of bowl games.
Similarly, UConn will get a slap on the wrist and Kansas will get ignored despite IRS and FBI pending investigations. Kentucky and OU are different stories. The NCAA will slap OU silly because of the institution's long, proud history of running a rogue program. Kentucky also has run a crooked program.
My guesses:
OU - pain. Lots of pain
Kentucky - loss of scholarships and limited recruiting activities
USC men's basketball - more scholarships cut on top of the school sanctions
UConn - limited recruiting activities and a promise not to do it again
USC football - see no evil. hear no evil. Remember, the NCAA wrapped the basketball and the football problems into the same investigation. Dinner and dessert taken away.
KU - dessert taken away and a "I am disappointed in you" lecture from whatever figurehead is running the NCAA.
I like this analysis, and am anxious to see how it actually plays out. We know the NCAA plays favorites, but how predictable will they be here? Worth watching...