Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.
After a week away from RTC, I just couldn’t help myself, and decided to come back to bring you up to date on the wacky, wild (and mediocre) ACC. Seriously though, the ACC is proving to be relatively unimpressive this year. We worried about that early in the year – at least I wondered that – and it’s starting to come to fruition as we head into February.
ACC POWER RANKINGS (record after games of Monday, Feb. 1)
The rankings will change a little this week, as we try to separate the contenders and pretenders into tiers, based on NCAA Probability: Definite Dancers, Probably Safe, Bubbly, NIT-picking, and CBI-Dreaming:
DEFINITE DANCERS
1. Duke (17-4, 5-2)
RESUME: Duke is still the best team in the ACC, but they have some serious weaknesses that have shown themselves in recent weeks. First of all, I have always wondered why a big-time program – especially one that is counting on young players as important contributors — would avoid true road games until conference play. And now I have proof. Duke is 1-4 in true road games, posting an impressive win at Clemson while falling at Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Sunday at Georgetown, where they decided not to play defense at all. The Blue Devils are looking more like a #4 or #5 seed than a #1 or #2.
FUTURE: Duke hosts Georgia Tech Thursday in a revenge game that qualifies as the ACC game of the week. They then visit Boston College Saturday. They should win that one too – but that’s a challenging turnaround and trip, so beware, Dookies.
2. Georgia Tech (16-5, 4-3)
RESUME: Easy wins over Wake Forest and Kentucky State. I didn’t even know there was such a school as Kentucky State. The Jackets hold onto this No. 2 spot, despite the three league losses. But that “impressive” road win at North Carolina a few weeks back isn’t so impressive anymore.
FUTURE: The trip to Cameron on Thursday should tell us a lot about Tech, but possibly more about Duke. A loss there wouldn’t be killer for the Jackets, except that it would be their fourth of the season in the ACC. Yikes.
3. Wake Forest (14-5, 4-3)
RESUME: Three road ACC losses for the Deacons – Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech (last weekend) – and none of them were even close. The win at UNC is looking less impressive by the day, but I still think Wake is definitely in. They could end up seeded anywhere from #3 to #10, but they’re definitely in.
FUTURE: Wake hosts Miami Tuesday and heads to Virginia Saturday. They REALLY could use a 2-0 week to get this thing on the right track.
PROBABLY SAFE (Yes, I know the league will get more than three bids — I’m guessing six. But who those next three teams will be is very much up in the air.)
4. Clemson (16-6, 4-4)
RESUME: That 4-4 league record doesn’t look good, and the Tigers really don’t have many impressive wins (Butler? at Maryland?). But this team has too much talent to not figure things out in the final month of the regular season.
FUTURE: I see at least five wins in the last eight league games, and probably six. A 9-7 league mark and two wins in the ACC tourney should lock up a #7 to #9 seed. Clemson could use a win at Virginia Tech Saturday to get that started, though.
5. Maryland (14-6, 4-2)
RESUME: My preseason pick is showing some signs of life, and should be able to secure a dance ticket. The 9-point loss at Clemson wasn’t great, but recent home wins over NC State and Miami were convincing enough (24 and 22 point margins) to be impressive.
FUTURE: The one issue for Maryland may be its remaining schedule. The Terps still have to play Duke twice, and face some tough road tests, starting Thursday at Florida State.
6. Florida State (16-5, 4-3)
RESUME: Two wins over Georgia Tech, including one on the road, stand out as highlights of the season for the Seminoles so far. While the wins might not be the impressive, FSU’s best attribute right now is a lack of bad losses. A home loss to NC State might be the worst of the bunch, but losses at Florida, Ohio State, Maryland and Duke aren’t anything to worry about.
FUTURE: Three home games out of the next four set up well for FSU, including Maryland on Thursday and Miami on Saturday. FSU needs to stand tall in Tallahassee to stay in this semi-safe tier.
BUBBLY
7. Virginia (13-6, 4-2)
RESUME: Personally, I think the Cavaliers will end up dancing. One of the unimpressive road losses earlier this year – at South Florida – is starting to look respectable, while many of the other losses were by less than three points. And while UNC is definitely down right now, the 15-point blowout win in Chapel Hill is still worth its weight in gold for fans in Charlottesville.
FUTURE: That said, UVA needs to win both of its games this week: home against NC State Wednesday, and home vs. Wake Forest Saturday. I know Wake is a tough game, but if the Cavs can go 2-0 this week, they might jump up a tier into the nearly-definite dancers.
8. Virginia Tech (16-4, 3-3)
RESUME: I was tempted to only include the Cavaliers on this tier, but I’ll be nice to the Hokies this week. The win at Virginia last week is the only solid road win of the year for Tech (maybe the win at Iowa counts), but a one-point win over struggling BC was a great escape.
FUTURE: This may be the end of Virginia Tech on the bubble, though. The Hokies host UNC and Clemson this week, and I can’t see them winning both. Even one loss (especially if it’s to UNC) could hurt any chance of staying on the bubble.
NIT-PICKING
9. North Carolina (13-8, 2-4)
RESUME: The talking heads on TV are debating whether UNC will miss the dance. I don’t see a debate at all – they are headed to the NIT. The Heels have too much youth, too many blowout home losses, and just too many tough games still to navigate. The wins over Ohio State and Michigan State are nice, as are victories over NC State and Virginia Tech, but the losses are just too hard to ignore. As is the upcoming schedule…
FUTURE: I mean, seriously, if you’ve watched UNC this year, do you really expect them to win more than a few of the remaining games? The Heels still have to go on the road to Virginia Tech (Thursday), Maryland (Sunday), Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest and Duke. I see maybe three wins out of those six – if they’re lucky. Plus, they still host Duke, Florida State and Miami. UNC will get an NIT invite, obviously, even if it’s just on name alone. But they need a miracle to make the big dance.
10. Miami (16-5, 2-5)
RESUME: Miami will go to the NIT only because it might reach 20 wins, not because any of them were impressive – at all. Sure, there was Minnesota, Wake Forest, and last week vs. Virginia Tech. But everything else on this resume is a total joke, and the remaining schedule takes the ’Canes away from Miami a few times – meaning nearly definite defeats.
FUTURE: Out of nine remaining ACC games, I’m seeing a real chance at just two wins, despite an imbalance of home games. The remaining slate is brutal. The only game where Miami would be favored is home to NC State. The ’Canes still have road games at Wake Forest (Tuesday night), Florida State (Saturday), Clemson and North Carolina. They still have to host Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia and Florida State.
CBI-DREAMING
11. NC State (14-8, 2-5)
RESUME: The Wolf Pack have been burned this year by lots of close losses, but as they say, close only matters in horseshoes, hand grenades, and 96-team NCAA Brackets (what a joke). The win over Duke could bump them into the NIT discussion – but only if Duke acts like a top-10 team the rest of the way.
FUTURE: Two road games this week at Virginia (Wednesday) and at Georgia Tech (Saturday), and two likely losses. I really only see two wins out of the remaining nine for NC State (maybe three), which would mean an optimistic final record of 17-14 and 5-11.
12. Boston College (12-10, 3-5)
RESUME: The win over Clemson was followed quickly by a bad home loss to Florida State. BC still hosts Duke and North Carolina, and travels to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The Eagles hockey team also gets to lost to Boston University in next Monday’s Beanpot final – so there’s that. What’s the Beanpot, you ask? Only the coolest in-season college sports tournament in all the land…
FUTURE: The Eagles welcome Duke to Boston on Saturday.
RAMBLING RANT OF THE WEEK
Making a return for this week only, the rant tackles an issue that everyone on this site seems to hate – so I’m jumping on. Why the hell do we need to mess with perfection? A 96-team Tournament? Really? We already have 7, 8 or even 9 teams from one conference going to the dance, including .500 teams from power conferences. It further minimizes the regular season, and throws even more asterisks into the record books. What if Northwestern finally makes the dance after it expands? Do they still celebrate like they would if they made it this year? And how will you feel when 22nd-seeded North Carolina (in a down year) “shocks” No. 3 Kentucky. You’ll feel empty and unmoved, that’s how you’ll feel.
CRYSTAL BALL TIME…
Considering how topsy-turvy things have been in the ACC this year, my 10-5 mark is quite respectable. But by perfect 3-0 mark in upset picks is pretty awesome, if I do say so myself.
OVERALL SEASON RECORD: 10-5
UPSET OF THE WEEK: 3-0
LAST WEEK’S CORRECT PICKS
BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH
My Prediction: Virginia Tech by 4
Result: Virginia Tech by 1
DUKE at CLEMSON
My Prediction: Duke by 3
Result: Duke by 13
GEORGIA TECH at FLORIDA STATE (Upset of the Week pick)
My Prediction: Florida State by 2
Result: Florida State by 2
LAST WEEK’S INCORRECT PICK
WAKE FOREST at NORTH CAROLINA
My Prediction: UNC by 11
Result: Wake Forest by 13
VIRGINIA at WAKE FOREST
My Prediction: Virginia by 2
Result: Wake Forest by 12
THIS WEEK’S PICKS (Upset special in italics)
GEORGIA TECH at DUKE, Thursday, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Duke takes care of business at home. Duke by 4.
MARYLAND at FLORIDA STATE, Thursday, 9 p.m.
Maryland picks up a big win away from home to boost its resume. Maryland by 2.
NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH, Thursday, 9 p.m.
I can’t call this an upset, but I see UNC getting this one late. UNC by 3.
DUKE at BOSTON COLLEGE, Saturday, 2 p.m. (ESPN)
A SHOCKING upset special of the week, but I’m just feeling it. Boston College by 2.
NORTH CAROLINA at MARYLAND, Sunday, 2 p.m. (FSN)
Maryland completes the best overall week for an ACC team. Maryland by 6.
BONUS PICK (ON ICE)!
BEANPOT HOCKEY FINAL: BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY, Monday, 8 p.m.
Despite a down year, my alma mater pulls out its 30th Beanpot title in 58 tries. BU 4, BC 2.