Four Ways for Maryland to (Maybe) Beat Wisconsin Tonight

Posted by Brendan Brody on February 24th, 2015

Wisconsin has won 10 games in a row and has done so by an average of 13.9 points per game. The Badgers are 25-2 on the season and, short of a completely surprising collapse down the stretch, are going to be no worse than a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Maryland has been the second-best team in the Big Ten most of the season, with a 22-5 overall record that includes a 16-1 mark at home. The Badgers as six-point favorites tonight, which may not seem like a lot, but it’s rare to have a spread so wide between two top teams in a power conference where the second-place team is at home. The long story short is that not too many people are giving the Terps much of a chance this evening, but here are some ways that Maryland can pull off the big upset.

 Melo Trimble needs to control the pace for Maryland if they want to beat Wisconsin.  (David J. Philip/AP)

Melo Trimble needs to control the pace for Maryland if they want to beat Wisconsin. (David J. Philip/AP)

  • Push the Tempo: Wisconsin has proven with its current roster that it can play at a much faster tempo than some of Bo Ryan’s past teams. They are athletic enough to handle a higher pace and do not need to stay in a low-possession game to win. But since Traveon Jackson’s injury last month against Rutgers, no Badgers’ starter is averaging less than 32.6 MPG. Admittedly, some of those high totals are because none of the five are ever really in foul trouble, but the other factor at play hers is that the Badgers don’t get much from their bench. Because Wisconsin rarely fouls, Maryland won’t feast at the free throw line as it typically does; this means getting some easy buckets in transition will help offset those missing opportunities while taking advantage of the fact that Wisconsin’s starters won’t get much rest.
  • Make Them Shoot From the Perimeter: Another dirty little secret about Wisconsin that has been masked by all the wins is that the Badgers aren’t an elite three-point shooting team this season. That’s not to say that they can’t make shots from beyond the arc, but their 35.1 percent clip from distance ranks a middling 129th in the nation. Josh Gasser (32.1 % in Big Ten games) and Sam Dekker (32.7%) are the primary culprits in their recent futility, but it’s much easier said than done to take away the Badgers’ profound ability to score in the paint. Still, the Terps would be wise to pack things in to encourage a handful more long-range attempts on this night.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Weekly Primer: Who Can Make a Run in March?

Posted by Henry Bushnell on February 24th, 2015

It happens every year. Every single year. Okay, that might be a bit of an exaggeration, but more often than not, there comes a time in a college basketball season when the entire hoops world witnesses the birth of something. It can begin with a bang; but it can also begin innocuously. It can occur in plain sight; but it can also be the tree in the middle of a deserted forest. This birth, of course, is the preliminary stage of a postseason run. And the run, of course, is the one that in a few weeks time will be the talk of college basketball. Back in 2011, it was Shelvin Mack, Brad Stevens and Butler. In 2012, it was Lorenzo Brown and NC State. In 2013, it was very nearly Marshall Henderson and Ole Miss. A season ago, it was Jordan McRae and the upstart Tennessee Volunteers. NCAA Tournament runs usually don’t just appear out of thin air. Typically, there’s a backstory. In 2015, the time has come for those backstories to develop. Next month’s headlines will start formulating themselves right now.

Most Every Team is Looking For Its Butler Moment (USA Today Images)

Most Every Team is Looking For Its Butler Moment (USA Today Images)

Who will those headlines be written about this year? Who will be the team that sees everything come together at the right time? Who will be that team? It’s time to start considering some possibilities:

  • Georgetown – The Hoyas aren’t exactly in the same category as the Butlers and Ole Misses of years past, but they seem to be flying somewhat under the radar. Georgetown has the pieces to make a run. The Hoyas are a top-20 defensive team, boast an occasionally dominant post presence in senior center Josh Smith, and have a guard in D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera who can take over a game. After getting smoked by Villanova a couple weeks ago, they’ve now won three straight and have the week off to prepare for St. John’s in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. That’s the kind of win that could propel the Hoyas to a #4 or #5 seed and their first Sweet Sixteen (or better) run since 2007.
  • Indiana – Another team that is solidly in the NCAA Tournament, the Hoosiers certainly will never be considered a Cinderella story. But most projections have them as a #8 or #9 seed right now, meaning they aren’t being discussed as a legitimate contender either. This team has notable flaws in its personnel and it has a coach who many have questioned in recent years. But it’s also arguably got the most lethal backcourt in the country — just the type of thing that can carry a team on a surprising journey through March. The Hoosiers, which have struggled on the road but have been dynamite at home, travel to Northwestern on Wednesday night before a two-game home swing featuring Iowa and Michigan State. It’s really the perfect slate to build some March momentum.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Analyzing the Big Ten Race For the Top Four Seeds

Posted by Alex Moscoso (@AlexPMoscoso) on February 24th, 2015

Let’s face it — barring serious injury to another Wisconsin player, the Badgers have all but won the Big Ten regular season. Bo Ryan’s club is 13-1 and comfortably in first place with a three-game lead and four games left in its schedule. While three of those upcoming contests are away from Madison, Wisconsin will be favored in all four games. But that presumed fact at the top of the standings doesn’t mean there’s no excitement to be found in the final two weeks of the regular season. Seven other Big Ten teams are currently vying to finish as one of the three remaining top seeds: IllinoisIndiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue. A top-four finish isn’t just ceremonial, either, as it gives a team a coveted double-bye in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament. That means a team’s first game (on Friday March 13) will come against a team that played the day before (perhaps even twice before), and will need only three wins in three days to be crowned tournament champions. Needless to say, it’s quite the advantage. The table below, provided by Daniel Borup and using KenPom’s win percentages, shows the current probabilities of each Big Ten team finishing at each of the 14 seed lines. After the table is a team-by-team synopsis on each of those squads vying for a top-four seed.

btt probabilities

Source: Daniel Borup

  • Illinois (1% likelihood of a top four finish). The Illini are mathematically still in contention for a top-four seed but a home loss to Michigan State on Sunday really set them back. Now the Illini may need to pull an upset either at Iowa or Purdue to ensure that they’re even on the right side of the bubble.
  • Indiana (11%). The Hoosiers currently sit at fifth place and have three games left — at Northwestern, Iowa and Michigan State. They’ll likely need to run the table on those to have a chance to catch up to Purdue or Michigan State. If they can accomplish that, they’ll still need the Spartans to tumble as Indiana owns the tiebreaker over Michigan State but not the Boilermakers.
  • Iowa (19%). Though two games back of fourth place, the Hawkeyes have a fairly manageable schedule still ahead of them: Illinois, at Penn State, at Indiana and Northwestern. That gives Iowa a fighting chance as two of the teams currently in the top four — Purdue and Michigan State — both have challenging schedules ahead. The problem is that Iowa has run so hot and cold all season — as evidenced by their win at Ohio State and home loss to Minnesota — that it’s hard to put much faith in this team.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Big Ten M5: 02.20.15 Edition

Posted by Alex Moscoso on February 20th, 2015

morning5_bigten

  1. After a miserable 0-5 start in the Big Ten, Minnesota was always a long shot to make a run at an at-large bid. Despite the terrible start, Richard Pitino’s team managed to fight back and win five of its next seven games. But the Golden Gophers’ postseason dreams effectively came to an end on Wednesday night when they suffered their worst lost of the season to Northwestern at home. For the second straight game, Minnesota let a team get hot from the perimeter as the Wildcats hit 15 three-pointers in the game. Now, at 5-9 in the conference, the Gophers are likely headed for the NIT or worse. Pitino will need to figure out what went wrong during the offseason and fix it quick as he’ll enter year three in Minnesota with no NCAA Tournament appearances.
  2. On Thursday, Purdue got its best win of the season when the Boilermakers topped its intrastate rival, Indiana, by four points in Bloomington. A.J. Hammons was tremendous in the game on both sides of the court, evidenced by his 20 points on 8-of-9 shooting and four blocks. Purdue’s guards were able to aggressively blanket Indiana’s shooters because of the rim protection Hammons provided all night. The result was that the usually deadly-from-deep Hoosiers were held to 31 percent from the three-point line and one of the best offenses in the country only managed 0.96 points per possession. While the Boilermakers are still on bubble, they finally have a signature win to counter some bad losses from earlier in the season.
  3. With 14 teams and 18 games, unbalanced schedules are a part of life in the new and super-sized Big Ten. Because of this, and the fact that rivalries are not protected for basketball, we as fans miss out on some great home-and-home battles against historic foes. Matt Brown from SBNation makes the argument that the Big Ten should forego the rotating schedule and lock in key games each and every year. It would make sense from the Big Ten’s perspective too, as these games would bring in more impressive ratings and demand better TV slots. It’s tough to argue with the logic, but the greater expansion of leagues throughout the sport has made that just short of impossible in this framework.
  4. Don’t let anyone tell you bad decisions aren’t contagious. After Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott trotted out the idea of reinstating freshmen ineligibility, the Big Ten followed suit saying it’s gauging the interests of its members about the possibility of implementing the rule once again. On Thursday, Maryland’s president, Wallace Loh, said “If they do well because they spend more time, get more academic advising … their freshman year, they’re going to graduate”. That’s quite a lot of hypocrisy to choke down from the president of a university who left their historic (and geographically sensible) conference for a more lucrative one in the Midwest. Next time Maryland flies 1,200 miles to Nebraska on a school night to play a 9:00 PM ET game, they should ask themselves if that may be negative factor for the student-athletes’ academics.
  5. Finally, on Thursday ESPN released Joe Lunardi’s newest brackets, and seven Big Ten schools are projected to make the Big Dance. Wisconsin (#2 seed), Maryland (#5), Ohio State (#7), Indiana (#7), Michigan State (#8), Iowa (#10), and Illinois (#11). Purdue is missing from the field as of right now, but this projection does not include the Boilermakers’ big win at Indiana on Thursday night. By the next time Lunardi updates his brackets, there may be eight teams in the field, which would undoubtedly make this another successful season for the league.
Share this story

Big Ten M5: 02.18.15 Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on February 18th, 2015

morning5_bigten

  1. With injuries to Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton, Michigan has gotten inexperienced very quickly. While the team’s freshmen and sophomores have shown signs that they could become heavy contributors at some point in the future, the young Wolverines are going through some growing pains right now. This mostly manifests itself on the defensive end of the floor and was quite evident in Michigan’s loss to Michigan State on Tuesday night. The Spartans shot 62.0 percent from the field and did so by seemingly scoring at will in the paint and through second-chance buckets. The Wolverines tried multiple defenses to slow down Sparty, but in the end they had no way of corralling the inside-outside combination of Branden Dawson and Travis Trice.
  2. It was mentioned in this space on Monday morning that Penn State head coach Pat Chambers wasn’t too happy with a late call against Jordan Dickerson in his team’s Saturday loss to Maryland. He’s now been publicly reprimanded for his comments on the game’s officiating and Penn State has been fined $10,000 as a result. Chambers was also frustrated with the fact that the Terps’ Melo Trimble managed to get to the free throw line 12 times in the game. The Nittany Lions have been plagued by foul trouble in many of their games this season — it’s obvious that Chambers doesn’t think his team is getting a fair shake.
  3. The Michigan State-Michigan game last night had some famous recent alumni in attendance due to this year’s extended NBA All-Star break. Draymond Green and Nik Stauskas were in Ann Arbor for the festivities and they had some entertaining social media discussion in advance of the rivalry game. It’s looking like Stauskas will be donning some green in the near future after his Wolverines lost to Sparty at home for the first time since 2010.
  4. Indiana added another player to the mix last week when football player Jordan Fuchs joined the roster. The 6’6″ tight end from New York City was good enough to have received a basketball scholarship offer from Iowa State, among other Division I programs, coming out of high school. Fuchs gives the Hoosiers some additional depth on the bench in anticipation of Purdue’s bulk in Thursday night’s game. He played two minutes in the Hoosiers’ win over Minnesota on Sunday, but he didn’t register any meaningful statistics. It will be worth noting whether this addition pans out for the team, as by all accounts the New York native was a legitimate high school prospect in both sports.
  5. ESPN’s latest bubble watch now only has two Big Ten teams listed as locks for the NCAA Tournament. Maryland joins Wisconsin as the two most probable entries with Indiana close to sewing things up. Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa and Purdue fall into the category of “still having work left to do.” It’s looking right now like the league will get as many as seven teams into the tourney, which means that someone from the group with work to do could end up on the outside looking in. Purdue has the most non-conference damage for which to compensate while Iowa way be in the midst of another late-season collapse. The next three weeks of Big Ten action will definitely be worth monitoring.
Share this story

Maryland’s Big Three Leads the Way

Posted by Brendan Brody on February 12th, 2015

Maryland‘s three best players have all struggled at various times in recent games — one might be hitting shots while the other two disappear. But on Wednesday night the Terps received double-figure scoring from each of Melo Trimble, Dez Wells, and Jake Layman, and as a result of a two-point win over Indiana, were able to move into a tie for second place in the Big Ten. The trio combined for 50 points, and did so on a highly-efficient 18-of-31 clip from the field. Granted, the Hoosiers won’t be confused with the ’85 Bears in defensive prowess anytime soon, but after a dreadful effort against Iowa on Sunday, Mark Turgeon has to be pleased with this performance.

Dez Wells tallied 18 points as Maryland moved to 8-4 in conference play with their win Wednesday night over Indiana. (Getty)

Dez Wells tallied 18 points as Maryland moved to 8-4 in conference play with its win Wednesday night over Indiana. (Getty)

Trimble, Wells and Layman each took turns making plays on the offensive end, exhibiting why Maryland is at its best when they spread the floor offensively. Because all three have a knack for getting to the basket when things aren’t too clogged up inside, the Terps’ offense is at its best when there are abundant driving lanes. There is some size in the interior with Damonte Dodd and Jon Graham manning the post, but neither is much of a threat to score from anything other than putbacks and broken plays. The primary issue this season has occurred when Wells and Trimble get into the habit of taking too many contested twos and Layman has simply disappeared for long stretches. Last night, by contrast, they mixed things up nicely and got much better perimeter looks because the realistic threat of the drive had been established. In turn, Maryland made 10-of-21 shots from behind the arc (six from the trio) and shot 49.0 percent from the field.

Maryland is now 9-0 when its best players reach double-figures, and the Terps have won those games by an average margin of 14.8 points. Granted, that group includes some bad non-conference competition, but it also includes wins over Arizona State, Iowa State, Purdue, Minnesota and now Indiana. Expecting freshmen like Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens to suddenly morph into major scoring threats at this point is wishful thinking, so the ultimate success of Maryland’s season will hinge on whether they can consistently play like they did against Indiana for the rest of the way.

Share this story

Big Ten M5: 02.11.15 Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on February 11th, 2015

morning5_bigten

  1. Player of the Year talk in both the B1G and nationally is starting to heat up. Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell has been mounting an impressive campaign with his play of late, but Wisconsin is squarely in first place. That’s why many think that the award in both the conference and nationally should go to the Badgers’ Frank Kaminsky. The case for Kaminsky comes from the fact that he is the offensive linchpin for the most efficient offense in the country. In addition to his abilities as a scorer and on the glass, he’s led the Badgers in assists eight times. His defense is more advanced than that of Duke’s Jahlil Okafor, and he showed his true value in the fact that Wisconsin is 0-1 (against a bad team) when he’s not in the lineup. Keep an eye on Russell, however, as the buzz will continue to grow if Ohio State can make a late run with its precocious freshman leading the way.
  2. Don’t expect Marc Loving back for Ohio State’s game against Penn State tonight. The sophomore is expected to miss his third straight contest but he may be back for the team’s Saturday tilt against Michigan State. Loving was suspended by the athletic department for an undisclosed violation. He’s been able to keep practicing, and he may be motivated by the fact that freshmen Jae’Sean Tate and Keita Bates-Diop have played well in his absence.
  3. Maryland has struggled lately with three not-so-close road losses to teams that they are currently stuck in a logjam with behind Wisconsin in the league standings. Turninovers and poor shooting have been the catalysts for the Terps’ significant drop in offensive efficiency since conference play began. The Testudo Times tried to diagnose the offensive problems by crunching some numbers. They have increased their tempo significantly since conference play started, but have seen their point per game drop to 62.6. While they’re still getting to the free throw line at a decent clip, they’ve started turning the ball over more frequently. There’s a good deal to digest there, but one major sticking point is the inconsistent play lately of Melo Trimble, Dez Wells, and Jake Layman. If these three can all get rolling, Maryland can right the ship.
  4. After suffering through close loss after close loss, Northwestern got blown out at home Tuesday night against Michigan State. This brings up some concern in Evanston as to why this team- especially with how young they are at key positions- seemingly getting worse as the season goes on. The Wildcats are now 1-10 in the Big Ten after surprising many with their 5-5 start last season. BTN’s Dave Revsine brought up the fact that this year’s unit has a better point differential than last year’s team, so luck is a factor. But maybe it’s time to realize that Drew Crawford was extremely important to last year’s team, and that maybe the rebuilding process at Northwestern may take longer than some expected.
  5. The Big Ten is close to having the rights to some of their games going up for bidding after their ESPN deal ends, and some feel as though a move to Fox and Fox Sports One would make sense since the media conglomerate owns half of the Big Ten Network. It might not end up that way however if Commissioner Jim Delany looks closely at the ratings the network is drawing with its coverage of the Big East. Granted, it may take a while for the “new Big East” to gain the eyeballs of the casual fan. But this year the league is probably the second best in the country yet has experienced some brutal numbers with its television ratings. While the B1G has more established brands nationally, a move away from ESPN could be risky.
Share this story

Big Ten Weekend in Review

Posted by Brendan Brody on February 10th, 2015

The weekend before Valentine’s Day in the Big Ten was hardly easy on the eyes. Only five teams were able to crack the the 1.00 points per possession mark, and 10 of the 14 league teams had double-figure turnovers. As an example, Nebraska only managed 13 first half points en route to a 29.4 percent shooting performance in its ugly loss to Penn State. Maryland found itself down by a score of 23-2 to Iowa before finally waking up to make the score a little more respectable (71-55). All in all, it wasn’t a good weekend if you were looking for aesthetically pleasing hoops. As always, though, there were a few highlights and solid performances, so here are some of the best.

D'Angelo Russell and his freshmen cohorts lead Ohio State's efforts in their win Sunday over Rutgers. (Kyle Robertson, Columbus Dispatch)

D’Angelo Russell and his freshmen cohorts lead Ohio State’s efforts in their win Sunday over Rutgers. (Kyle Robertson, Columbus Dispatch)

  • Player of the Weekend: D’Angelo Russell continues to strengthen his candidacies for both Big Ten Player of the Year and National Player of the Year, notching Ohio State’s first triple-double since Evan Turner recorded one in 2010. We can probably just go ahead and make it a post rule that if someone earns a triple-double and his team wins, he will end up with the Player of the Weekend award. Russell didn’t make the handful of spectacular plays that he’s become known for in this game, but he continued to just put up numbers in an efficient way. He scored a ‘quiet’ 23 points, including 17 in the first half on only 13 attempts. He also had six rebounds and seven assists by halftime, making it almost a forgone conclusion that the triple-double was imminent. Granted, all of this production came against Rutgers, but a Player of the Year race that once looked like an easy win for Frank Kaminsky has now become much more competitive. The March 8 tilt between the two stars in Columbus might ultimately decide the award.
  • Super Sub of the Weekend: Ohio State freshmen accounted for 61 of the Buckeyes’ 79 points on Sunday night, and Keita Bates-Diop enjoyed his most productive game of the season. Stepping in because Marc Loving was still suspended, Bates-Diop boosted his confidence by hitting two threes early in the first half. From there, he managed to either tie or post career-bests in all five major statistical categories. He tied a career-high in points (19) and assists (three), and set career-highs with his nine rebounds, two steals and three blocks. Not bad for 19 minutes of action. The Buckeyes are getting great contributions from their freshmen right now, and Thad Matta’s first-year players may decide how far this team goes.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Big Ten M5: 02.05.15 Edition

Posted by Alex Moscoso on February 6th, 2015

morning5_bigten

  1. On Wednesday night, Purdue got an important 60-58 win over Ohio State. Why was it important? Not only did it stretch the Boilermakers’ winning streak to four games, it also moved their conference record to 7-3, their best start since the 2007-08 season. If Purdue can win the rest of its home games (Nebraska, Rutgers, and Illinois), they’ll guarantee themselves at least 10 wins in conference play. To get serious consideration in March for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid, they’ll need to compensate for their two bad losses against Vanderbilt and Gardner-Webb. A win against the ranked Buckeyes goes a long way toward eliminating some of the stink on their resume.
  2. One factor that may have played into Ohio State’s loss was that sophomore forward Marc Loving was not on the court. The sophomore and second-leading scorer did not make the trip to West Lafayette, as he has been suspended indefinitely for disciplinary reasons. The specifics of his cause for suspension were not released by the school, but his absence threatens the Buckeyes’ pursuit for a protected seed in the NCAA Tournament. Loving was beginning to emerge as one of the the best shooters in the Big Ten, as evidenced by his 53.2% shooting from deep. But now that he’s on the sidelines, Ohio State will become even more of a one-man show, starring D’Angelo Russell, than it’s already been.
  3. Also on Wednesday, Maryland managed to fend off Penn State in College Park. While the Terrapins are still hovering near the top of the Big Ten standings, stud freshman Melo Trimble has hit a bit of a slump with only seven combined points in his last couple games. It’s lucky for Mark Turgeon that he has a senior leader like Dez Wells, who contributed 23 points and seven rebounds, to pick up the slack. He also managed to get the home crowd off its feet with this monster dunk. On Sunday, Maryland heads to Iowa City for a key game with the Hawkeyes. They’ll need Wells to continue to make big plays and for Trimble to wake up out of his slumber if they hope to notch their third conference road win.
  4. On Thursday, Iowa snapped its three-game losing streak with a 72-54 victory at Michigan. The Hawkeyes were able to take advantage of the shallow depth of the injury-ridden Wolverines and walked out of Ann Arbor with an important road win. This bodes well for Fran McCaffery’s group, as his team has a favorable schedule the rest of the way. It’s too early to predict that Iowa is over the hump, but a strong finish would certainly be a departure from what last season when the Hawkeyes imploded and exited the NCAA Tournament in the First Four. This year, the Hawkeyes could actually enter the postseason with some real momentum.
  5. After Indiana started off Big Ten play at 5-1, the Hoosiers have dropped three of their last four games and are coming off an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin. Alex Bozich from Inside the Hall takes a deep dive into the makeup of this up-and-down team with a player-by-player breakdown. Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., and Troy Williams lead the way when it comes to filling out the stat sheets, but given the fact Indiana has allowed over 1.2 points per possession in each of their last three losses, they may need Hanner Mosquera-Perea back from injury to provide some semblance of a defensive presence inside.
Share this story

ACC M5: 02.05.15 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 5th, 2015

morning5_ACC

  1. Syracuse Post-Standard: Huge news broke yesterday evening. Syracuse has decided to self-impose a postseason ban in basketball this year “as a further means of acknowledging past mistakes.” Even though the team isn’t all that great this season, this is a big step. It means the Orange can’t play in the ACC Tournament, much less the Big Dance. The worst part is that this year’s players (who didn’t commit any of the infractions) are the ones who will pay the price. I’ll leave you with a couple of things: First, this doesn’t mean that the Orange are off the hook with the NCAA (although postseason bans usually go a long way — see Miami’s football scandal for an example); and second, this is the new ACC Tournament bracket — the only change is that the #10 seed now gets a bye.
  2. Raleigh News & Observer: Luke DeCock thinks Virginia is still the team to beat in the ACC after the Cavaliers thrashed North Carolina (which admittedly couldn’t match up much worse) in Chapel Hill on Monday night. John Gasaway and I both agree. If you had questions, Duke’s letdown win at home against Georgia Tech should help with the argument. It doesn’t mean Duke isn’t really good or really dangerous (the same goes for Notre Dame, North Carolina and Louisville). It just means that Virginia operates in a higher gear consistently.
  3. Chicago Tribune: Speaking of the Fighting Irish, Notre Dame has done very well in its close games this year. Sure, the Irish lost one to Pittsburgh, but on the whole Mike Brey’s team keeps its cool when games get tight. Their opponents do not, which means that the Irish’s porous defense gets enough stops to pull out the win. With a stone-cold killer like Jerian Grant capable of getting his own shot and plenty of shooters surrounding him, the Irish are really tough to beat down the stretch.
  4. NC State Technician: NC State is digging deeper and deeper. Tuesday night’s game at Wake Forest represented a microcosm of their season (although their normal routine is a good first half followed by a bad second half). The Wolfpack came out incredibly flat in Winston-Salem and trailed by 21 points at the half. By the time they had mounted a comeback to make the margin reasonable, it was too late. The Demon Deacons held off the final run thanks to a little luck and a lot of cushion. NC State has now lost four of its last five games and has a whole week off to think about it. That gives Mark Gottfried plenty of time to make some adjustments, but his players also will have a lot of time to stew on their struggles. Oh, and Virginia is coming to town. The Wolfpack’s options are becoming limited — either steal a couple of wins down the stretch and stop losing to mediocre competition, or make a serious run in the ACC Tournament.
  5. Washington Post: So how does Maryland‘s move to the Big Ten look? Mark Turgeon has finally gotten around to succeeding like I predicted when Maryland first hired him (albeit in a much weaker Big Ten than in years past), but it’s nice to hear Adrian Branch and Kristi Toliver say they regret the move and miss the ACC. I’ll be the first to admit I miss having Maryland around. Duke needs a foil outside of the Triangle, and the Terps often lived up to the role. All that said, I’ll take the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh over moving to be geographically isolated in a conference.
Share this story

Big Ten M5: 02.04.15 Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on February 4th, 2015

morning5_bigten

  1. It’s now the time of the season when the frantic checking of various bracketology updates becomes a daily must for college hoops junkies. It also marks the return of ESPN’s bubble watch column. In this week’s version, there are eight Big Ten teams with a reasonable chance to make it into the field of 68. This is obviously a fluid situation, but right now Wisconsin is the league’s only true lock. It will be worth watching to see if the conference can match last season’s six bids in what has to be considered a down season in terms of overall quality.
  2. There are only 14 American Indian college basketball players at the Division I level this season, but one of that group has been thrust into the spotlight by playing for a Wisconsin team that has Final Four aspirations. Given the brighter stage that he finds himself on, Bronson Koenig has used the opportunity to act as an inspiration for others like him. He’s attempted to learn more about his background as he’s gotten older, and he rails against sports nicknames (like the Redskins) that he feels degrade his people. Koenig had another outstanding game against Indiana on Tuesday night, and seeing the sophomore get an opportunity both on the floor and to become a powerful off-court spokesman might go a long way toward ending some of the more foolish nicknames in sports.
  3. Indiana was without the services of freshman James Blackmon Jr. last night, as the wing was sidelined with an ankle injury that he suffered in Saturday’s win over Rutgers. It may not have mattered all that much, though, as Wisconsin scored seemingly at will on its way to a lopsided 92-78 home victory. The Hoosiers now will take on Michigan on Sunday, and it is unknown whether Blackmon will be available for the key upcoming game against the Wolverines. Indiana has been a surprise team through the first half of Big Ten play, but Tom Crean will need the services of his star rookie in order to push on through to an unexpected NCAA Tournament berth.
  4. Penn State is now 2-7 in conference play, and one of the major reasons for that disappointing record has been an over-reliance on DJ Newbill on the offensive end. Newbill is being asked to make something out of nothing on a good number of the Nittany Lions’ possessions, which often leads to others standing around and essentially getting in the way. The lack of a true point guard on the team has hurt considerably, and despite returning most of their key contributors from last season, they’ve clearly regressed. Their assist rate sits at a paltry 42.3 percent, which is a byproduct of not having a serviceable distributor to make things happen. Newbill leads the team in assists and scoring, and Shep Garner plays shooting guard. This also explains some of the poor shot selection and late-game turnovers that have contributed to several of their close losses.
  5. Chemistry was questioned at Maryland after the Terrapins lost five players from last season’s team that underachieved in their final ACC season. This year’s edition has blended newcomers and veterans much better than in the past, and graduate transfer Richaud Pack has been a key component to that improvement. The senior has been a valuable presence in the Maryland locker room even as he’s seen his minutes cut back lately. The guard can do a little bit of everything, and he will be a needed to fill whatever role the Terps ask of him as they hit the home stretch.
Share this story

Analyzing the Remaining Big Ten Schedule

Posted by Alex Moscoso on February 3rd, 2015

Now that this Big Ten season is at its midpoint, it gives us a chance to gauge teams’ performances to date and analyze what’s to come. Besides a surprising second half hiccup in New Jersey, Wisconsin has been the dominant team in the league everyone expected. Ohio State, Indiana, and (surprisingly) Maryland are the consensus contenders for second place, and each could make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament if conditions are right. Nebraska, Penn State and Northwestern have had disappointing seasons. The rest of the league is in a slog to find an address on the right side of the bubble. But given uneven schedules, comparing teams by their record in conference play alone may hide the actual favorability of their schedules. Because of this — and the overall relative parity throughout the league — a good number of people in the media have been using “true” standings. This approach ranks teams by penalizing them for a home loss and rewarding them for a road win. Below, I’ve illustrated the true Big Ten standings and attached each team’s upcoming schedule and their predicted finish according to KenPom. By looking at the table, we can make some assumptions about what the second half of the Big Ten season has in store for us.

midseason big ten standings

Here are my three main takeaways from the table above:

  • Wisconsin should cruise to an outright regular season title. While I’ve previously commented on the overall parity of the league, I’m really talking about every team except for the Badgers. Wisconsin has been dominant — both nationally and within the Big Ten. Its sole loss to Rutgers was flukish given that it came while Frank Kaminsky and Traevon Jackson were sidelined (Jackson for the second half). Looking forward, it’s unlikely that another team will enter the Kohl Center this season and leave with a win, and three of their five remaining road games come against struggling teams like Nebraska, Penn State and Minnesota. With a two-game lead already in hand, the Badgers are headed to a regular season title and a possible #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story