Sorry Georgetown, but it’s time to say goodbye to the NCAA Tournament. An 0-2 week against Providence and Seton Hall means that the Hoyas are now just 14-13 overall and 3-10 against the RPI top 50. The opportunities have been there, but they simply haven’t seized them. Even the most fervent Hoya fans would be willing to admit that this demotion has been rightfully earned. For the rest of the Big East as a whole, however, little has changed. This is the second installment of the Big East Bubble Watch, with RPI and SOS figures from RPIForecast.com.
Locks
- Villanova: 23-3 (12-1); RPI: 2; SOS: 13
- Xavier: 23-3 (11-3); RPI: 5; SOS: 34
Analysis: No justification needed here. Both teams are firmly in the RPI top 10 and could be looking at #1 or #2 seeds. At this point, even a prolonged losing streak wouldn’t be enough to keep them out.
Should Be In
Ben Bentil, Kris Dunn And The Friars Should Be Good To Dance…If They Keep Avoiding Bad Losses (Photo: USA Today Sports)
Providence: 19-8 (7-7); RPI: 37; SOS: 44
Analysis: Providence is one of those teams whose computer ratings have always trailed its AP ranking and public perception. Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil have been one of the best one-two combinations in college basketball, accounting for 51 percent of the team’s points this season. But inconsistent play from the Friars’ supporting cast has proven difficult to overcome, and this was especially evident last week as Providence went 1-1 with an expected win over Georgetown and an expected loss at Xavier. The Georgetown win matters only in the sense that the Friars avoided a bad loss — an important exercise at this time of year. But with a healthy Bentil — the Big East’s leading scorer with 20.3 PPG — leading the way, Providence should be good to go for the remainder of the year. The key will be whether Rodney Bullock or Ryan Fazekas can produce more to take a great deal of pressure off the killer combo — both in the Friars’ pursuit of the NCAA Tournament and their efforts once there.
Seton Hall: 18-7 (8-5); RPI: 42; SOS: 69
Analysis: Fueled by the ever-improving play of sophomore Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall has continued to build momentum. After starting league play at 3-4 with narrow losses to Villanova and Xavier, the Pirates have now won five of six contests. A home loss to Butler likely killed the AP votes they’d been receiving, but it didn’t tarnish the team’s overall NCAA Tournament resume to any point of disrepair. Although the Pirates are just 2-5 against the RPI top 50, there are no questionable losses on their resume and they continue to pass the eye test with flying colors. There are two road games coming soon with the potential to deliver a bad loss (at St. John’s and DePaul), so the Hall isn’t out of the woods just yet, but winning those two — particularly if it can get a home win over Providence next week — may seal the deal.
Not Quite There
Butler: 18-8 (7-7); RPI: 59; SOS: 78
Analysis: The Butler resume is as bubbly as it gets. Bulldogs fans are probably sick of hearing about it, but conference play has been absolutely brutal for Chris Holtmann’s team. The offense has been humming along behind the varied skill sets of Kellen Dunham, Roosevelt Jones and Kelan Martin, but the team defense has struggled mightily in getting stops during crucial stretches. The RPI number, which was once as high as #13 after a neutral floor win over Purdue, fell all the way to #67 before the Bulldogs picked up wins over Seton Hall and Creighton last week. Winning one of its two road games at Villanova (unlikely) or Georgetown would ease tensions in Indianapolis, but either way, the margin for error here is thin. Going 1-2 in the next three games (plus a game vs. Seton Hall at home) and then winning in its finale against Marquette would likely require Butler to win a game or two in the Big East Tournament. There’s still plenty of work to do here.
On the Fringe
Creighton: 17-10 (8-6); RPI: 83; SOS: 88
Analysis: Despite an impressive win over Xavier last Tuesday, Creighton still hasn’t done enough to merit inclusion to the NCAA Tournament. A road loss at Butler isn’t a bad one but it does represent a major missed opportunity for a team that desperately needs wins. Now Creighton has two must-win home games (Marquette and St. John’s) before it will need to steal at least one game on the road against either Providence or Xavier. Per RPIForecast.com, taking three of four would leave the Bluejays RPI at #71, a number well outside the range of consideration. So it would likely take a season sweep and a prolonged Big East Tournament run to change this team’s calculus. However, low preseason expectations should make this season, one still on course to result in an appearance in the NIT as a top two or three seed, a definite success.