It’s been a little under a month since our previous seeding forecast and that means it’s time for an update. While a lot has happened over the last four weeks, the race for the Big Ten title and NCAA at-large bids have remained relatively even. There are still six Big Ten teams that appear comfortably within the field of 68 while a seventh remains firmly entrenched on the bubble. There’s also a three-way race for the #4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and its accompanying double-bye. The table below shows each school’s updated likelihoods for finishing the regular season at each seed.
Here are three takeaways from the data.
1. Iowa is the strong favorite to capture a regular season title. There was a three-way tie for first place between Iowa, Indiana and Maryland heading into last weekend. In fact, the Terrapins — which owns the tiebreaker over the Hawkeyes — had at the time almost a 50 percent chance of finishing in first place. But after Maryland lost to Wisconsin and Indiana lost to Michigan State, Iowa once again finds itself alone at the top. Along with its one-game lead, Iowa has a comparative advantage with its remaining schedule. The toughest games for the Hawkeyes in the final three weeks will be versus Indiana and at Michigan; Maryland, on the other hand, still has games against Michigan, at Purdue and at Indiana; Indiana must face Purdue and Maryland as well as travel to Iowa. With this kind of advantage in place, Iowa has sole possession of the Big Ten Championship within grasp for the first time in 36 years.
2. It’s a three-way race for the #4 seed and Michigan State has the inside track. Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue are all battling to secure a top-four seed and accompanying double-bye in Indianapolis. The Wolverines currently own the best Big Ten record (9-4) among the three schools and are coming off an impressive come-from-behind win against Purdue at home, but they are forecast to finish either fifth or sixth in the standings. Both Purdue and Michigan face two games against either the league leaders of Iowa, Indiana or Maryland in their remaining schedules, while the Spartans only have one. This scheduling quirk, along with the resurgent play of NPOY candidate Denzel Valentine, means Michigan State looks like the favorite to get the fourth double-bye seed.
3. Wisconsin’s incredible winning streak puts the Badgers back on the bubble. Many expected Wisconsin’s recent tear to end last weekend when the Badgers played at Maryland. They instead extended their winning streak to seven games with a 70-57 win over the Terrapins. This catapulted Greg Gard’s team past Ohio State as the more likely candidate to get into the NCAA Tournament — despite a problematic start to the season where Wisconsin dropped games to Western Illinois, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Marquette. And while the Badgers now have wins against Michigan State, Indiana and Maryland, they’ll need to finish strong by notching another resume win or two to seal the deal. Wisconsin’s upcoming games at Michigan State, at Iowa, and at home versus Michigan and Purdue will provide those opportunities. A few more wins seems very possible given how well Gard’s team has been playing.