Rush The Court

One of the interesting things about a long and grueling conference season is the subtle changes that teams undergo, both good and bad. For a Xavier team that remains in solid position for a top-two Big East finish and a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament, an issue may be developing. Despite a 9-2 record since losing at Villanova, Xavier has been trending down in efficiency metrics (with both KenPom and others). Defense is the main culprit, specifically on the interior. Wins against St. John’s and Marquette were much closer than they should have been and Chris Mack’s team followed those up with a disappointing loss at Creighton, a game in which it was blitzed from the opening tip. The Musketeers have allowed six of its last seven opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from two-point range. What’s shocking is this had only happened six times in the preceding 23 games. While the better competition in Big East play is certainly a factor, the trend is undoubtedly still alarming. It’s no coincidence that the three teams to beat Xavier have all shot better than 60 percent from inside the arc. Given the makeup of this Musketeers team, the porous interior defending is especially surprising.

Xavier not only has one of the better frontcourts in the nation, but it also has a stockpile of guards and wings with length and athleticism. Mack’s 1-3-1 zone has been incredibly disruptive at times this season, particularly in limiting penetration by the opponent. Given all this, it’s hard to decipher the exact problem for the X-men, but they would be wise to find a way to stop this trend. It will be notable if the poor defending continues down the stretch, as this team is faced with a brutal late February schedule. The Musketeers have been a complete team on both ends of the floor for most of this season and have a legitimate chance to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. It would be a shame if porous interior defense derails this dream season.

You will hear a lot of talk about the NCAA Tournament and where Big East teams stand over the next few weeks. Heck, you are hearing a lot already. What the media and fans need to keep in mind (which they often do not) is that there is a full month of basketball still to be played between now and Selection Sunday. The actual bracket will look very different from the mock brackets we see this time of year from the so-called “bracketology experts.” Just look at the remaining schedule for every Big East team with NCAA Tournament aspirations. There are many critically important games still to play that will help shape the actual bracket, not to mention the conference tournament. The bottom line is that the majority of teams (both in the Big East and nationally) will clearly play their way either into or out of the postseason, with only a select few falling right on either side of the cut line. While it is nice to think about March Madness and all that comes with it, rankings and bracketology mean little in the grand scheme at this point in time. Championship week is when bracketology actually becomes important.

Meanwhile, it appears the computer rankings had the right idea about Providence. Since beginning the season 14-1, the Friars have lost six of their last 10 games to fall to just 6-6 in conference play. All season long Providence has been ranked in the polls far above its ratings in the efficiency metrics, a trend partially due to all the media attention surrounding Kris Dunn. While computer rankings are certainly not the be-all and end-all, human polls inevitably allow subjective biases into the discussion. You don’t have that when it comes to computer rankings and they have told the less biased story all season long of an offensively inefficient Friars team. This is slightly surprising, if only because of Dunn’s reputation as the top point guard in America. There are two ways to think about the issue of Dunn and Providence’s offensive inefficiency. One is that you would expect an elite point guard to be in command of a strong offensive team. The other is recognizing that Providence would be even poorer offensively without Dunn in the mix. The truth (as it often does) most likely resides somewhere in the middle. While Dunn and Ben Bentil have carried Providence to a strong record despite its recent struggles, the inability of a third option to emerge offensively has been the most significant contributor to the PC offensive woes. Rodney Bullock played well in the non-conference season and posted 25 points in a win at Butler, but has not developed into a reliable third wheel for Ed Cooley.

This is a team with an interesting tournament resume. The Friars have performed extremely well on the road but have lost four games at home in conference play alone. Unsurprisingly, inconsistency on offense may best explain those losses, as Providence’s defense has been strong all year and defense has kept them in games, especially on the road. With a fairly difficult remaining schedule still to play, Cooley and his group need to play better offensively and take care of the teams they should beat in order to secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament.