Duke has experienced multiple runs of success so far in conference play. The Blue Devils started ACC action with three straight victories, and are now on a two-game win streak. But in between those five wins came a stretch where Duke lost four times in five contests, which is why there are still major doubts about Mike Krzyzewski’s team heading into the final four weeks of the regular season. Can the Blue Devils play good enough defense to compete with the nation’s (or even the ACC’s) best teams? Are two of the freshmen (Derryck Thornton and Chase Jeter) making enough progress to be solid contributors in big games? Will a lack of depth eventually wear out the Blue Devil core? Many of those questions may be answered, for better or worse, in the coming two weeks, when the Blue Devils’ schedule gets downright brutal. This week features home games with Louisville (tonight) and Virginia (on Saturday). The following week will see the Blue Devils travel to North Carolina and Louisville. That’s four consecutive games against the league’s top three teams.
Derryck Thornton’s return to the starting lineup has given Duke a boost defensively. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
Let’s look at those questions one by one:
Can the Blue Devils play good enough defense?
Currently Duke ranks ninth in the ACC in defensive efficiency, allowing 1.09 points per possession in league play. Led by star Grayson Allen, the Blue Devils only trail Notre Dame in ACC offensive efficiency, meaning they have generally been winning by outscoring the opposition. That feat will get harder in the next four games, as Duke will face the top three rated defenses in the conference. To have success against the league’s best, Krzyzewski needs his team’s man-to-man defense to be good enough to use as a viable alternative to the zone that Duke has often employed this season. Duke’s performance in its last two games may give its veteran coach some hope. Using man-to-man exclusively, Duke held Georgia Tech to 0.84 points per possession in the second half of last Tuesday’s road win. In Saturday’s victory over N.C. State, the Blue Devils played man-to-man for the entire first half, holding the Wolfpack to 0.95 points per possession.
Are Derryck Thornton and Chase Jeter making enough progress to become solid contributors?
Last year, Duke rode their outstanding freshmen class all the way to a national title. As expected, this year’s rookie foursome has not produced at nearly the same level. Brandon Ingram and Luke Kennard have been very impressive for most of the year, but Thornton and Jeter have been much slower to adjust to the college game. Serving as Duke’s lone frontcourt reserve for Marshall Plumlee, Jeter has only scored six points and grabbed five boards in 39 minutes of ACC action. But he has looked a little more comfortable lately, earning 11 minutes in the last two outings after only playing a total of six in the previous five games. The development of Thornton has long been seen as a key to this team, and there are signs that he may be turning the corner. After Duke’s bye week, Thornton returned to the starting lineup against Georgia Tech and responded with his best offensive game in ACC play (15 points and three assists). Saturday, it was Thornton’s early defense on Cat Barber that helped Duke get off to a solid start. As the only true point guard on the roster, his presence on the court enables the Blue Devils to play more conventionally on both ends of the floor. It also allows Matt Jones to play his natural wing position, where he is far more effective.
Will a lack of depth eventually wear out this team?
The easy solution here would be the return of senior forward Amile Jefferson, who has been out of the lineup since mid-December with a foot injury. But with Jefferson still in a walking boot, there’s no expectation that he will be back for this tough four-game stretch, forcing Krzyzewski to run this gauntlet with his seven-man rotation. Another injury would be devastating, and it looked for a moment on Saturday that Allen had suffered a severe one when he awkwardly twisted his ankle on a drive (he walked it off). Another nightly concern for Duke is foul trouble. Ingram in particular has had to sit for long stretches after picking up fouls trying to compete with bigger bodies in the post.
In trying to answer all three above questions, it’s evident that the answers will be intertwined. Most notably, the second answer holds the key to the other two. It’s crucial that Thornton and Jeter develop into consistent contributors, because there is no depth at all if those two can’t be trusted enough to be on the floor. Without a bench, Duke can’t afford to play man-to-man defense. Thornton in particular gives the Blue Devils someone who can pressure opposing point guards like no one else on the roster.
Unlike nearly every recent Duke team, this squad is not yet assured of an NCAA Tournament berth, as all six of Duke’s ACC wins have come against teams with losing conference records. A split or better in the next four games versus the ACC’s three best squads would likely ensure the Blue Devils’ inclusion, but three or four losses over the next two weeks would leave open the possibility of Duke failing to make its 21st consecutive trip to the Big Dance.