All the Big Ten teams are now about one-third of the way done with their conference schedule, so it seems like a natural breaking point to do a quick projection on each team’s finish. The table below presents the probabilities each team places at every seed (1-14) in the Big Ten Tournament. These numbers are based on the probability of the outcome for each game set by KenPom. One caveat is that these projections do not include tiebreakers, and therefore may be more positively skewed for some teams–although not by a large degree. This table will be updated in a few weeks and right before the final week of regular season. Follow the handle @AlexPMoscoso on Twitter for intermittent updates to the projected seedings. Below the table are some take-away points from this analysis.
- Iowa is the Heavy Favorite: That’s right, the Hawkeyes are more likely than not to win their first regular season title since the 1978-79 season. They had a fantastic start to conference play by going 5-0 with wins over Michigan State (twice), Purdue, and Michigan and their current winning streak is historic for their program. While they certainly have the inside track to win the Big Ten at this point, an 85 percent likelihood of doing so seems very optimistic. This is a testament both to how well Iowa is playing–third in KenPom with a top ten offense and top fifteen defense–and that the rest of their schedule is rather soft. They only play five more games against teams projected to be in the NCAA Tournament–only three of which are on the road.
- The Top Six: If it wasn’t already clear, this table highlights the fact that there is a major drop off between the top six teams–Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, and Michigan–and the rest of the league. These squads are safely on the right side of the bubble while the rest of the league is clearly outside of it. Each of top six teams have a 10 percent likelihood or less to fall outside the top six seeds. Michigan has the highest probability of falling out, but don’t expect such a meltdown to happen as Caris Levert is likely to return from injury sooner rather than later. And keep your eyes on the battle for the top four seeds, which have the significant advantage of a double-bye in the first two rounds of the Big Ten Tournament.
- The Battle Back to the Bubble: If there is another team that is going to make a late push for an at-large bid, it will come from one of these four teams: Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Each of these schools have a double-digit probability of finishing in seventh place. The Buckeyes and Wildcats have the best odds of a seventh place finish and a handful of bracketologists have one of the two teams in the field (most have both out). While KenPom has Northwestern more highly ranked, Ohio State has the easier schedule going forward. But it’s safe to say that both teams will need to upset some of the top six to even be considered on Selection Sunday.