Early conference results can sometimes be deceiving. While the Big East is one of only two major conferences with a true round-robin format, the start to conference play for Butler and Georgetown has been quite different. These teams currently sit at 1-3 and 4-1, respectively, even though the Bulldogs are widely regarded to be the better team. While Georgetown was handed a soft opening stretch to conference play, one that included two games with DePaul, one with St. John’s and a home tilt against Marquette, Butler has had to play the likes of Xavier, Providence and Villanova right off the bat. Everything will even out eventually, but sometimes a tough start to league play can take away momentum created in the non-conference, something Butler (11-1 non-conference record) did quite well. But should there be concern now that the Bulldogs are heading in the wrong direction? Absolutely. Chris Holtmann’s team ranks a dismal No. 157 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the season and dead last in the 10-team Big East when considering conference games only. Butler has struggled all season with adjusting to life without Kameron Woods, who was a dominant rebounder last season. The Bulldogs are undersized in the frontcourt and need to figure out a way to rebound and defend if they are going to bounce back from a rough start to league play.
We will find out a lot more about Georgetown in the coming weeks. The Hoyas now begin a stretch of six straight games against KenPom top 50 teams after their soft open to the Big East schedule. Turnovers, rebounding and perimeter defense remain issues for this team, and the loss of Paul White for the rest of this season hurts its depth. Georgetown showed glimpses of strong play in the non-conference, but when you remember the good with the bad — head-scratching losses to some legitimately bad teams — it is difficult to make a confident judgement on the team. One thing that is a safe bet: The Hoyas will go as far as D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera can take them.
In its present form, the Big East has struggled in postseason play, despite sending 10 teams to the NCAA Tournament in only two seasons. Matchups can certainly be blamed for the struggles, but it’s also possible the league has been a bit over-valued during the regular season. Is the league not strong enough top to bottom to prepare the better teams for the rigors of March? Consider the makeup of this year’s league. Seven of the Big East’s teams currently reside in the top 75 of the KenPom rankings but of those, only three have an adjusted offensive efficiency rated amongst the top 25 nationally. “Defense wins championships” has long been the adage, but in recent years it has been offense that has carried teams deep into March. While as many as six Big East teams may find their way to the tournament, only Villanova and Xavier appear strong enough to put together an extended run, based on this criteria.
Let’s get back to offensive efficiency for a second. Providence, Seton Hall and Marquette (along with bottom feeders DePaul and St. John’s) sport offensive efficiencies outside the top 100 nationally at the present time. That is half of the league, including three teams that should and/or may contend for a NCAA bid. The fact that Providence falls into this category is quite surprising given that Kris Dunn is considered by many to be the best point guard in the nation. Even teams like Georgetown and Creighton, while respectable offensively, are nowhere near elite. The depth of the league is impressive (there are truly only two bad teams this year), but the talent and offensive playmaking seem a notch or two below the top teams from other leagues. Are Big East teams not seeing enough quality offenses over the course of a rigorous league schedule to prepare them for what they’ll see in March? It seems like it.
Is another round of discontent brewing at Seton Hall? After starting 12-2 (2-0) for the second straight season, the Pirates have lost two straight games ahead of an absolutely brutal stretch where they visit Providence, host Villanova and take a trip to Xavier in succession. There was no shame in the Hall losing a competitive game to Villanova on the road last week, but returning home and laying an egg against Creighton has fans justifiably concerned about a repeat of last year’s meltdown. Kevin Willard benched starters Isaiah Whitehead, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez for nearly the entire second half as the Bluejays routed the home team. The dismal effort, motivation and preparation should worry Pirate fans, mainly because it is not a new problem for Willard. In his previous five seasons with the school, he has a track record of struggling to control chemistry problems that simmer early in the season. It hasn’t been pretty when adversity strikes Seton Hall, as the offense has tended to stagnate while “hero-ball” drowns out any play-calling. The Pirates’ bread and butter this season has been defense (a vast improvement) and they need to bring maximum effort on that side of the ball in order to fuel some easy baskets for an offense that can struggle mightily at times. While the upcoming stretch is difficult, it is hard not to feel like Seton Hall must win one of the next three games in order to maintain contact with the rest of the Big East, and to prevent any chemistry issues from flaring up again. After all, Willard may be coaching for his job over the next two months.