Rush The Court

The “way-too-early” portion of this exercise holds even more weight this year because so many elite prospects are still uncommitted. Both Caleb Swanigan and Jaylen Brown —  elite McDonald’s All-Americans with program-changing potential — as well as Thon Maker, another possible immediate impact player, could still pick Big Ten teams. There are also a half-dozen or so NBA decisions pending from underclassmen that could significantly alter next season’s Big Ten landscape. What follows here is a look at where things stand right now, assuming that Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell, Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker and Nebraska’s Terran Petteway all leave early.

1. Maryland: The Terps should return three starters unless Jake Layman decides to leave early. Melo Trimble could be a national Player of the Year candidate and star freshman Diamond Stone will be an upgrade down low. The return and probable improvement of this year’s freshmen combined with newcomers like Stone and transfer Robert Carter Jr. should make this team deeper and better than this year’s unit that exceeded expectations.
2. Michigan State: Losing Travis Trice and Branden Dawson to graduation will sting, but newcomers Eron Harris and Devonta Davis will do more than balance out those losses. Everyone else who played more than 10 minutes per game this season is expected to be back, and Denzel Valentine should develop into a star in his senior season. This year’s March run will be a catalyst for much bigger things in 2015-16.
3. Indiana: This spot among the Big Ten’s top three could change if any of Yogi Ferrell, Troy Williams or James Blackmon Jr. decides to leave, but all are expected to return. The primary addition that makes next season look so promising is that 6’10” freshman Thomas Bryant will enter the program. The center who can run the floor and defend will give the Hoosiers what they were missing on the inside during an up-and-down 9-9 Big Ten season. If Tom Crean can get Thon Maker to commit to Indiana as well, he has enough talent on hand to become a top 10 team nationally next season.
4. Michigan: The key for the Wolverines will be whether Caris LeVert returns for his senior season. But even if he decides to leave school a year early, Michigan should expect to be back in the Top 25 as everyone else other than Max Bielfeldt is expected to return. The fact that Aubrey Dawkins and Muhammed Ali Abdur-Rahkman were able to contribute so much as freshmen gives John Beilein great depth in his backcourt. Jaylen Brown is unlikely to end up in Ann Arbor but he still lists Michigan in his final grouping of schools. Any combination of adding Brown or keeping LeVert is cause for optimism.
5. Wisconsin: Although he is going to take his time to decide, Sam Dekker is more than likely heading to the NBA. His departure would mean that the Badgers will lose five of their top seven players this offseason. Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig represent a nice start as far as retooling, and it’s never a good idea to lose faith in Bo Ryan finding a way to put the pieces together in this conference. Zak Showalter should be fine in stepping into an expanded role and there are plenty of others like Ethan Happ and Alex Illikainen who will fit well within the system.
6. Purdue: AJ Hammons’ decision will be the major variable here. If he returns, the only loss of the Boilermakers’ top nine players will be Jon Octeus. Matt Painter’s team had a better-than-expected season in finishing in the top four so it would be reasonable (assuming Hammons sticks around) to expect Purdue to get better with noted sharpshooter Ryan Cline and point guard Grant Weatherford joining the mix.
7. Ohio State: If for some miraculous reason Russell decides to postpone his riches for another season, the Buckeyes will jump up this list. You have to assume he’s gone, however, meaning that Jae’Sean Tate will be the only returning Ohio State starter next season. Thad Matta’s next group will be loaded with outstanding freshmen and sophomores but because the league should be stronger at the top, it is likely that they will struggle. Players like Keita Bates-Diop and Virginia Tech transfer Trevor Thompson will have to be huge if the Buckeyes expect to compete for another league title.
8. Iowa: Losing Aaron White, and to a lesser extent, Gabriel Olaseni, will cause the Hawkeyes to take a step back next season. Jarrod Uthoff and Adam Woodbury will need to substantially improve for Iowa to best a very solid 2014-15 season.
9. Illinois: After two consecutive NIT berths, it’s hard to rank Illinois any higher than this right now. Tracy Abrams will help stabilize things, but someone needs to emerge as a rim-protector to replace Nnanna Egwu.
10. Northwestern: There will be some noise about the Wildcats breaking their infinite NCAA Tournament dry spell with four starters returning next season, and adding top 100 recruit Aaron Falzon add Jordan Ash will give them tremendous depth. But we have to be cautionary and say that we’ll believe it when we see it.
11. Minnesota: Nate Mason looks to be a lead guard that Richard Pitino can build around but the loss of three seniors who played heavy minutes puts the Gophers slightly behind Northwestern as the two young coaches shape their programs. Minnesota’s recruiting class is solid but it will take some time to develop.
12. Penn State: Josh Reaves and Mike Watkins come in with solid reputations, but losing DJ Newbill and Ross Travis will be too much for Pat Chambers’ squad to overcome.
13. Nebraska: If Petteway decides to return, the Cornhuskers will move up the list. But Tim Miles will need Andrew White to emerge as a third scorer and freshmen Glynn Watson and Edward Morrow Jr. to contribute at a high level. Right now this team has no size whatsoever.
14. Rutgers: Freshman Corey Sanders is a nice starting point but this rebuild (build?) is going to take a very long time. Losing three of the team’s top four scorers won’t help.