Just a few short weeks ago, an 11th straight Big 12 regular season championship seemed like a lock for Bill Self and Kansas. “[I]t would take a monumental collapse for the Jayhawks to miss out on at least a share of another Big 12 title this season,” I wrote back on February 4, as we passed the midpoint of conference play. At the time, Kansas held a two-game lead over its competition and was coming off an impressive home win against Iowa State in Lawrence. Another share of the regular season title seemed like a sure thing for this year’s Jayhawks.
Self emphasized the importance of the Jayhawks’ road games after their victory against the Cyclones. Kansas at the time still had five away contests on the remaining schedule and the head coach noted that his team would be in a much more comfortable position if it could steal a few wins away from Allen Fieldhouse. Since those prophetic comments, Kansas has trended downward, going 1-3 on the road with their lone win coming against the league’s worst team, Texas Tech. The Jayhawks laid an egg in the second half against Oklahoma State, turned it over on 26.9 percent of their possessions in Morgantown, and couldn’t get a stop down the stretch against the Wildcats in Manhattan last night. As a result, Kansas has seen its lead in the Big 12 race slip away; now at 11-4, the Jayhawks are just half a game up on the Cyclones as Fred Hoiberg’s bunch takes on Baylor in Ames on Wednesday.
Iowa State appears poised to challenge the Jayhawks for the title, as the Cyclones certainly have a more favorable schedule to close out the regular season. According to Ken Pomeroy’s FanMatch, Iowa State will be favored in each of its remaining contests, including home games against Baylor and Oklahoma and two road games at Kansas State and TCU. If Hilton Magic holds, the Cyclones will have a fantastic chance at snagging the league championship because Kansas has three games remaining against teams in KenPom’s top 25. The Jayhawks have two upcoming home games — versus Texas this weekend and West Virginia next Tuesday — before heading to Norman where they will face off against Oklahoma in a game that will likely have massive implications on the title race. If Iowa State wins out and Kansas keeps pace, Self’s team would face a championship game of sorts on March 7 against the Sooners. The most interesting scenario, though, could involve an Oklahoma win in Ames on Big Monday, which would then set the stage for a potential three-way tie atop the standings should the Sooners also defeat Kansas. In any case, the Jayhawks’ recent struggles have now set up an exciting finish in Big 12 play as they valiantly chase their 11th straight Big 12 championship. It’s been an exciting league all season long; why would that change now?