Rush The Court

Valparaiso’s victory over Green Bay last Friday was big, no matter how you slice it. The Crusaders held home court, avoided being swept by the Phoenix, and maintained their full game lead on both Green Bay and Cleveland State with less than two weeks remaining in the season. Still – with the top overall seed and both double-byes in next month’s league tournament yet to be determined – the result was far from a coronation. Let’s examine the key matchups, possible tournament scenarios and general outlook heading down the stretch.

The Top Four

• Valparaiso – 24-2 (11-2). It’s quite simple for Valparaiso: win out and the championship is yours. Of course, with a pair of difficult road games left – including Cleveland State to end the season – that might be easier said than done (the Crusaders barely snuck by the Vikings back in January), but Bryce Drew’s group has been remarkably consistent in 2014-15 and sophomore forward Alec Peters (17 PPG, 6.6 RPG) might be the league’s most dynamic player, aside from Keifer Sykes.
• Cleveland State – 16-11 (10-3). After starting the year 6-8, Cleveland State got its act together in conference play and now has a legitimate chance to claim a share of the title. It won’t be easy – a road trip to Green Bay and Milwaukee beckons, before closing the season against Valparaiso – but if the Vikings can knock off the Phoenix tonight, they will own a sweep over the reigning champs and be in excellent position to emerge with a top-two seed in March.
• Green Bay – 21-6 (10-3). Green Bay can avenge two of its three league losses by beating Cleveland State at home tonight and taking down Oakland on February 28th.  KenPom gives the Phoenix about a 53 percent chance of winning their final three, but if Wednesday night’s drubbing of Detroit is any indication, those odds might actually be better: Greg Mays dropped 34 points, Keifer Sykes (nursing a thumb injury) flirted with a triple-double and the preseason favorites won by 20.
• Oakland – 14-14 (9-4). The Grizzlies will be hard-pressed to finish first or second, but they did lock up a top-four seed by beating Wright State on Wednesday. That guarantees a bye in the Horizon League tournament, which is pretty good for a team picked seventh in the preseason.

What’s At Stake

Seeding matters immensely in the Horizon League, considering the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals, the top two head straight to the semifinals, and the top overall seed hosts both the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds. Likewise, the highest remaining seed hosts the conference championship game. As it stands, those top four slots are locked up – Valparaiso, Cleveland State, Green Bay, and Oakland – but the double-byes and tournament host have yet to be determined.

Three Key Games

Although Valparaiso controls its own destiny – again, they just need to win out – so does Cleveland State. If the Vikings win their final three games, which include Green Bay and Valparaiso, they will have a better conference record than the Phoenix and own any possible tiebreaker over the Crusaders by virtue of sweeping Green Bay [Full tiebreaker procedure can be found here]. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the three best and most crucial games left on the Horizon League slate – two of which involve Cleveland State.

• Cleveland State at Green Bay – Tonight (7:00 ET – ESPN2). The Vikings handled Green Bay by 14 back in January, so they would own any possible tiebreaker over the Phoenix with a win tonight (if both teams wind up with the same conference record). But Sykes and company haven’t lost at home this season and enter the contest with a 77 percent win probability.
• Valparaiso at Cleveland State – February 27th (10:00 ET – ESPNU). Next Friday’s matchup could end up being a de facto conference championship game if Cleveland State finds a way to upend Green Bay tonight.
• Oakland at Green Bay – February 28th (2:00 ET). If the Phoenix do lose tonight, next week’s bout with Oakland would potentially decide the third and fourth seeds.

Could RPI Ultimately Decide Who Hosts?

One of the most likely scenarios could also be the most controversial, or at least discussion-worthy. If Green Bay wins its last three and Valparaiso loses at Cleveland State to end the season (KenPom has that game pegged as a toss-up) both teams will finish 13-3 in the Horizon League standings. According to the conference’s tiebreaker procedure, “if two tied teams split in two games during the regular season, compare each team’s record against the team occupying the highest position in the standings and continue down through the standings.” But for the Phoenix and Crusaders, that wouldn’t solve the issue; at that point, each team will have lost one game apiece to Cleveland State, Oakland and each other. So how does the tiebreaker proceed from there? By taking the club with the highest RPI. That’s right – RPI. Whichever squad finishes with the highest RPI ranking according to Collegiate Basketball News will win the tiebreaker and host the tournament. Unfortunately for Valparaiso, the Phoenix – already ahead in that category – would likely wind up on top.

The Outlook

Green Bay looked sharp against Detroit on Wednesday and Valparaiso has been consistently sharp all season, so I suspect those two will finish 1-2 in the standings. The question is in what order. It might all come down to the Crusaders’ trip to Cleveland State next weekend and whether Bryce Drew’s club – the Horizon League’s youngest – can keep its composure; they are the conference’s second-most turnover-prone unit, while Cleveland State is the most adept at forcing turnovers. Valparaiso coughed it up 19 times in their first meeting, so better ball security will be crucial in Valparaiso’s quest for the outright league title.