Rush The Court

Back in late August when the ACC released complete team-by-team schedules for this season, North Carolina‘s non-conference slate prompted Roy Williams at the time to say, “This one may be a little off the charts.” As we will see below, perhaps his quote should be rephrased: “top of the charts” might be more appropriate. Now that we’ve reached the Christmas break for every ACC school, let’s evaluate this year’s non-conference schedules for all 15, considering different ways to judge the relative strengths and weaknesses of each. Keep in mind that each program must schedule according to its own needs that season, so some disparity in schedule strength is expected. But some of following numbers are still disappointing, to say the least.

In the chart above, we used current KenPom rankings and included all past and future opponents (most ACC teams have one or two non-conference contests remaining). As usual, the two most blue-blooded ACC programs top the list in most areas of evaluation. North Carolina has a clear edge in nearly every measurable factor, including average opponent rating, fewest home games, and most Top 25 opponents. The Tar Heels own the best average opponent rating by such a wide margin that even if #1 Kentucky is removed from the schedule, it would still lead the conference in that metric. Triangle neighbors Duke and N.C. State are in a tight race for the second-toughest non-conference schedule, with the Blue Devils earning the nod here due to the Wolfpack’s lack of a Top 25 opponent and their tendency to play so many home games. Mark Gottfried has always scheduled with the infamous RPI strength of schedule rating in mind, and who can blame him? The RPI rewards a win over a team ranked #150 much more than it does versus a team ranked #300, even though good teams should beat both squads relatively easily. Therefore, many of N.C. State’s opponents are chosen because they are expected to fall in that upper middle tier of the RPI: nine of N.C. State’s 13 non-ACC opponents currently have KenPom ratings between #59 and #114. Virginia has upgraded its schedule this season in accordance with the newly-elite status of the Cavalier program. Tony Bennett’s group only plays two games against bottom-150 teams and Virginia has already played (and won) three true road games in non-conference play.

The middle of the chart reveals some interesting tidbits about several ACC teams, including the better-than-expected ranking for Syracuse. Jim Boeheim’s historical propensity for playing a bunch of weak non-conference opponents in the Carrier Dome has led to much national criticism. But while there are some of those games this year, the Orange have also played a number of tough road/neutral contests as well. One explanation could be that Boeheim was actually telling the truth when he said that the university needed all those home dates in years past for budgetary reasons. Now that Syracuse is receiving a much larger conference paycheck in the new ACC, he may correspondingly have more flexibility in upgrading his schedule. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has the epitome of an average schedule strength this season, with zero games against Top 25 opponents but only two with bottom-150 squads. Louisville‘s slate is a little disappointing, particularly given its high percentage of home games, five of which have come against bottom-150 squads. We have to be careful about setting arbitrary cutoff points, though, as the results can sometimes be misleading. For example, Pittsburgh looks good for only having three bottom-150 teams on its slate, but if you extend that break point to the bottom-158, suddenly the Panthers’ number of “cupcakes” increases to seven.

At the bottom of the chart we see the teams we should expect there, with one glaring exception. Notre Dame, a program that has made six NCAA Tournament appearances in the last eight years, should be embarrassed with its non-conference schedule. Only Virginia Tech has a weaker schedule of non-ACC games, but given the current state of the program that Buzz Williams is rebuilding, it’s no time to pile on the Hokies. On the other hand, Mike Brey’s schedule features an inexcusable six games against teams in the bottom-47 of the rankings and not a single true road game. As a successful and nationally-known brand, it’s not like Notre Dame should have any problem lining up several decent opponents. This could come back to haunt the Irish somewhat if they finish outside the ACC’s top five in league play. The rest of the conference pays for Notre Dame’s indiscretions here as well.