There wasn’t a whole lot of movement in the O26 bubble picture this past week. We’ve seen teams projected safely in the field continue to cement that status — Wichita State, San Diego State, Saint Louis, etc. — and another couple squads with a gaudy records but subpar SOS and RPI numbers take themselves completely out of the at-large discussion — Harvard and Green Bay. While there weren’t many teams that picked up resume-making wins last week — most tread water or broke a little above even — we also didn’t see all that many teams exacerbate things with horrible losses. So let’s check out who helped and hurt themselves in this week’s O26 resume review:
Helped
Saint Joseph’s (16-7, 6-3 Atlantic 10)
Saint Joseph’s biggest week of the season brought mixed results. The Hawks fell flat against Saint Louis in a 65-49 loss last Wednesday before rebounding with a solid 69-62 victory against Virginia Commonwealth on Saturday. A sweep might have put Saint Joseph’s in the NCAA Tournament field, but a sweep the other way probably would have signaled lights out on the Hawks’ at-large aspirations. The week’s split saw Saint Joseph’s RPI jump from #53 to #46 in seven day’s time. The Hawks are sitting squarely on the fence in the bubble conversation. The Bracket Matrix places the Hawks as the second team in the First Four Out category. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, CBS’ Jerry Palm and Sports Illustrated’s Michael Beller have Saint Joseph’s currently out of the field as well, while Yahoo’s Brad Evans has the Hawks as the last team in the field. A home game with Dayton and road tilt at George Washington highlight the remaining slate. Ken Pomeroy, however, projects Saint Joseph’s to lose four more regular-season games, which would certainly leave the Hawks in the NIT.
Projected seed for now: Out
Dayton (16-8, 4-5 Atlantic 10)
The Flyers are back on track, winning three straight games. While this past week’s victories came against George Mason and Saint Bonaventure, a pair of teams in the bottom half of the A-10, it’s just important that Dayton keeps winning and doesn’t suffer any bad losses. Mission accomplished this week. It will be more of the same in the near future with Rhode Island, La Salle and Duquesne dotting the upcoming schedule. Then comes the stretch that will ultimately determine Dayton’s fate — a closing stretch with Saint Joseph’s, Massachusetts, SLU and Richmond. The RPI sits at #60, up five spots from a week ago. KenPom has Dayton losing to Saint Joseph’s and SLU but winning the rest of its league games. That would put the Flyers at 21-10 overall and 9-7 in the A-10. That might be enough to earn Dayton a bid.
Projected seed for now: Out
BYU (17-9, 9-4 West Coast Conference)
Much like Dayton, this past week was all about treading water for BYU. The Cougars picked up home wins against Santa Clara and San Francisco and saw their RPI jump from #45 to #43 in the process. Avoiding a bad loss against Pacific on Thursday is key before visiting Saint Mary’s on Saturday. A home game with Gonzaga on February 20 could determine BYU’s fate. KenPom projects the Cougars to go 4-1 down the stretch, the lone loss coming to Saint Mary’s. That might be enough to earn an invite to the Big Dance.
Projected seed for now: #12
Southern Miss (21-3, 8-1 Conference USA)
I feel like I need to include the Golden Eagles in this category. They’ve won eight straight games after pulling out home wins against Marshall and Charlotte this past week. The RPI remained the same, but that’s perfectly fine since the number is 34. That’s not too shabby considering Southern Miss has played one guaranteed tournament team all season — a 31-point loss at Louisville in late November. KenPom projects Southern Miss to win its remaining seven games, thus finishing the season at 28-3 overall and 15-1 in C-USA play. With a number of so-called middling majors, would that be enough to get the Golden Eagles in despite a marquee win? It would certainly be an interesting debate.
Projected seed for now: #10 as the automatic bid
Hurt
Boise State (15-9, 5-6 Mountain West)
Boise State has become all too familiar a name in this category. They remain here after blowing a lead and a golden opportunity for a resume-making win against San Diego State last Wednesday, combined with a road loss at Utah State on Saturday. Yikes. With at-large hopes already slim before this week, they are all gone now. It’s automatic bid or bust for the Broncos. The RPI dropped from #60 to #67 in a week’s time and only one shot at a big win remains — tonight against New Mexico. KenPom projects Boise State to win that game but lose road games at Colorado State and Wyoming down the stretch. Currently sixth in the MWC standings, it would be a stiff task to ask the Broncos to win the MWC Tournament.
Projected seed for now: Out