With college basketball halfway through conference season and the NFL finally finished, sports fans across the country are starting to look more closely at this season’s version of bracketology. My microsite colleague Chris Kehoe did a nice rundown of ESPN’s latest bracket focusing on the six ACC teams currently in the projected field. In this post we will take a hard look at a seventh ACC team that appears to have the best chance to join the others in the Big Dance this season. But as we will see, the Clemson Tigers have a lot of work ahead of it in order to merit serious consideration from this year’s NCAA Selection Committee.
After Tuesday night’s low-scoring home win over Georgia Tech, Clemson has a nice ACC record of 6-3 that is good for fifth place in the league standings. That puts them ahead of two teams that most pundits believe are going to the NCAA Tournament — North Carolina and Florida State. Of course, it doesn’t matter where you are right now, but rather how you are viewed by the Selection Committee on Selection Sunday. So with that in mind, let’s try to project where Clemson will be after the ACC Tournament concludes and its resume is complete. Below we list the Tigers’ remaining schedule along with Ken Pomeroy’s current ranking of each opponent and his predicted outcome for each game.
Two things immediately jump out about this lineup of games. The most obvious is that Clemson is projected to lose the next three times it suits up. The other is how close most of these games are expected to be, with three of the projected losses and two of the projected wins by just one or two points. If the Tigers follow Pomeroy’s predictive model (not likely but the best guess we have at this point), they will end the regular season with an 11-7 ACC mark and a 20-10 overall record. Let’s then assume that Clemson performs according to seed in the ACC Tournament, winning an opening round game and losing in the quarterfinals. That would leave the Tigers with a 21-11 record (12-8 ACC) going into Selection Sunday. Will that be good enough? Let’s look at a few teams from the past three seasons that have had similar resumes to what Clemson would have under this scenario. Specifically, we looked at teams from major conferences with between eight to 12 losses that also had very weak non-conference schedules. It’s been proven time and again that the Selection Committee puts a high emphasis on a team’s RPI non-conference strength of schedule, and will often use it as an eliminating factor for teams on the bubble.