We realize the last real Big East Tournament is already in full swing in Madison Square Garden, with DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall and South Florida already sent packing in four chalky contests. But with 71% of the field still in the hunt and two second round games remaining tonight, we maintain that arriving late to the party is better than never showing up at all.
So here, in a format lifted shamelessly from Pat Forde, are our best- and worst-case for the four teams to be showcased tonight. What do each of them stand to gain or lose in New York City this week?
#11 Rutgers
No. 11 seed Rutgers has already advanced into day two of the Big East Tournament after dispatching with DePaul in convincing fashion. They failed to advance beyond the first round in Madison Square Garden last season, losing 70-49 to #11-seed Villanova.
Next game: Rutgers will face No. 6 seed Notre Dame in the 9:00 PM slot tonight.
- Best Case: While they took the Irish down to the wire in South Bend in their only contest this season, that was with 20 points from Eli Carter, who would break his leg a month later. Sadly, at 15-15 (5-13 in conference play) and missing their best player, avenging a February loss to the Blue Demons is likely as good as it gets for the Mike Rice’s club in New York City. At #107 in the RPI, Rutgers’ best hope is to lock up an NIT bid with an upset win over Notre Dame.
- Worst Case: Mike Rice hurls a ball at Mike Brey’s head, resulting in a suspension for the duration of the CBI. Indiana’s General Assembly passes a resolution banishing Rice from the Hoosier State, forcing him to watch his team’s Big Ten road games in Bloomington and West Lafayette from his couch.
#10 St. John’s
The #10 seed St. John’s Red Storm bring a four-game losing streak with them into the Big East Tournament and they finished 8-10 in the conference after showing some promise throughout the conference slate. Last season they lost their first game of the Big East Tournament in convincing fashion to Pittsburgh, officially ending their season on their home floor.
Next game: St. John’s plays No. 7 seed Villanova at 7:00 PM.
- Best case: At this point, it is hard to look on the bright side when analyzing the Johnnies’ chances in this tournament. Since losing their leading scorer D’Angelo Harrison, the Red Storm have lost all three games they have played and ruined Notre Dame senior Jack Cooley’s last ovation on his home court with a nasty fight when down by 26 points. The team did show some grit in an overtime loss to Marquette to end the regular season, though, and they have enough athleticism to punch Villanova in the mouth and set up a rematch with Notre Dame. Beating an experienced team like the Fighting Irish, even on their home court, will be a different story, so if the Johnnies actually make it into the conference semifinals, it would be a shock to everyone who has followed the conference this season.
- Worst case: The silver lining, if you want to call it that, is that the Johnnies have nothing to lose. They are headed to the NIT most likely unless they somehow win the conference tournament. But it would be a frustrating end to a once promising season if St. John’s can’t come out with energy and passion in their opening game against the Wildcats and lose. The future is bright for Steve Lavin’s young team, especially if they stop losing players to personal and eligibility issues. But no one would be shocked if the team continued to slide, lost to Villanova, and kissed their already slim hope at making it to the NCAA Tournament goodbye for good.
#7 Villanova
The Villanova Wildcats earned the #7 seed in this year’s Big East Tournament after an up-and-down season in which they finished 10-8 in the conference, earning a single bye at Madison Square Garden. They will be looking to make last year’s disappointing second-round loss to South Florida a distant memory as they try to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
Next game: Villanova plays No. 10 seed St. John’s at 7:00 PM.
- Best case: Considering the Wildcats have beaten the best three teams in the conference tournament, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to see Jay Wright’s club take Madison Square Garden by storm and capture a conference championship. The path to the championship likely will go through Notre Dame and then Marquette, which is probably the easier half of the bracket, and the Wildcats have played good basketball down the stretch, so beating both of those teams shouldn’t shock anyone. The key will be shooting well from behind the three-point arc and getting to the free throw line. If ‘Nova can focus on defending the three-pointer and not collapsing down the stretch, and if they are lucky enough to get both the good JayVaughn Pinkston and the good Ryan Arciadiacono in the Big East Tournament, they have enough firepower and depth to make a serious run in the Big East Tournament and cement their spot in the NCAAs.
- Worst case: It has been a season of Jekyll and Hyde for the Wildcats who have knocked off some of the best teams in the conference and also lost to Providence twice and Columbia at home by 17 points. They are fortunate that St. John’s is not a terrific perimeter shooting team, because ‘Nova has been dreadful at defending the three-point arc and they hardly ever force turnovers despite a sneakily above-average defense. Jay Wright has also struggled to make sure his players are giving consistent effort, and if it looks like key players like James Bell, Darrun Hilliard, and Pinkston are listless, the Wildcats will have trouble beating anyone. The worst thing that could happen to them is to come out flat against the more athletic Red Storm, get blown out of Madison Square Garden and give the NCAA Tournament committee a lot to think about it terms of Villanova’s Big Dance worthiness come Selection Sunday.
#6 Notre Dame
Sixth-seeded Notre Dame went 11-7 in the conference to earn a single bye in MSG. Last season, they defeated South Florida in the Big East Tournament’s third round as the #3 seed, before falling to eventual champion Louisville in the semifinals.
Next game: Notre Dame will take on No. 11 seed Rutgers in the 9:00 PM slot tonight.
- Best case: The road to the Big East title game is one filled with redemption potential, which could play into Notre Dame’s hands. Recent history is full of examples of teams struggling mightily against opponents they’d recently beaten in the regular season. Assuming they handle Rutgers tonight, Notre Dame would get another crack at #7 seed Marquette, who defeated the Irish in Milwaukee 11 days ago. Should the Irish edge the Golden Eagles, a rematch of last season’s semifinals (and last weekend’s blowout road loss) with #2 seed Louisville may await them on Friday. Joe Lunardi pegs the Irish as a #7 seed in the East region as of this afternoon. Defeat two ranked Big East teams and prove they can string together three wins away from home, and the Irish will be looking at much better seeding and momentum heading into the Big Dance.
- Worst case: The Fighting Irish ended the regular season ranked in the AP Poll, but they’re entering the postseason looking vulnerable. They went 3-3 to close out Big East play, and after beating DePaul in Chicago at the beginning of February have finished 1-4 on the road. Should their struggles away from home continue and they drop their first BET game to Rutgers, Notre Dame is likely to enter the NCAA Tournament unranked as an #8 or #9 seed, where it could draw an imposing matchup like Minnesota or Missouri in the first round.