It’s hard to believe, but we’re almost there. March is creeping up, and the Big Ten regular season is coming to a close. Michigan State has surprised just about everyone outside the walls of Breslin Center in East Lansing, already securing a share of the conference title, but there’s plenty left to shake out in terms of seeding for the 2012 Big Ten Tournament. There are four pairs of teams tied throughout the standings, which means eight squads have plenty left to play for. Here’s an updated look at what the bracket would look like if play ended today, based on the conference standings heading into this week’s games. As usual, the tiebreaker results are explained below.
The Spartans are in line for the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Can they carry their success into Indy? (AP)
- #1 : Michigan State (24-5 overall, 13-3 Big Ten)
- #2: Michigan (21-8, 11-5)*
- #3: Ohio State (23-6, 11-5)*
- #4: Wisconsin (21-8, 10-6)
- #5: Indiana (22-7, 9-7)**
- #6: Purdue (19-10, 9-7)**
- #7: Northwestern (17-11, 7-9)***
- #8: Iowa (15-14, 7-9)***
- #9: Illinois (17-12, 6-10)
- #10: Minnesota (17-12, 5-11)
- #11: Nebraska (12-15, 4-12)****
- #12: Penn State (12-17, 4-12)****
** Indiana beat Purdue, 78-61, in the team’s only meeting of the season, on February 4. They play again in the season finale in Bloomington.
*** Northwestern won the only meeting between the Wildcats and Hawkeyes (83-64 on February 9), though they play again in the season finale in Iowa City.
**** Nebraska and Penn State split the season series, and both teams are winless against #1 seed Michigan State. #2 seed Michigan, #3 seed Ohio State, and #4 seed Wisconsin. The tiebreaker trickles all the way down to record against #5 Indiana, whom Nebraska beat but Penn State did not.
Under this scenario, the first round would play out like this:
- #8 Iowa vs. #9 Illinois
- #5 Indiana vs. #12 Penn State
- #6 Purdue vs. #11 Nebraska
- #7 Northwestern vs. #10 Minnesota
- Winner #8/#9 vs. #1 Michigan State
- Winner #5/#12 vs. #4 Wisconsin
- Winner #6/#11 vs. #3 Ohio State
- Winner #7/#10 vs. #2 Michigan
- There aren’t a whole lot of changes from last week, but the final week of play will be telling. Michigan State has tough games at Indiana and against Ohio State. Can Wisconsin catch the stumbling Buckeyes? Can Illinois get it together in its final two games against ranked opponents? There’s still plenty of time left for teams to rise and fall.
- If things hold, we’re looking at the possibility of a Michigan-Michigan State championship game. It may seem hard to believe, but neither of those teams have been in the tournament’s title game since the Spartans won it and went on to win the national title in 2000. Michigan hasn’t played in the Big Ten Tournament championship game since 1998, but its win that year was vacated due to NCAA violations.
- Purdue and Iowa are both hot right now and have plenty of upset potential. Iowa has won two of its last three games behind the conference’s hottest player in Matt Gatens, with winnable games remaining against Nebraska and Northwestern. Purdue lost Kelsey Barlow, but somehow found a boost of adrenaline — seen in the Boilermakers’ biggest win of the year, this weekend at Michigan — and has a home game against Penn State before a rivalry game against Indiana.
- ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi has seven Big Ten teams dancing in his latest installment of Bracketology, with Purdue as a No. 8 seed and Northwestern as one of his last four in (No. 13 seed team). Will they be fighting for their lives in Indy? Will Minnesota, Iowa, or Illinois stand a chance? Desperate teams are dangerous teams.
At this point, it’s hypothetical. But with just a week of conference play remaining, these are plenty of interesting — and more and more likely — storylines to keep an eye out for.