Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Northwestern, Miami, BYU.
• First Four Out: South Florida, Colorado State, Dayton, Oregon.
• Next Four Out: Arizona, VCU, Illinois, UCF.

Click on bracket to enlarge and check out my latest bubble watch update here.

S-Curve

• 1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke
• 2 Seeds: Michigan State, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State
• 3 Seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown
• 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Louisville, Indiana, Wichita State
• 5 Seeds: Florida, Florida State, UNLV, Notre Dame
• 6 Seeds: Temple, Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton
• 7 Seeds: San Diego State, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
• 8 Seeds: Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas State, Virginia
• 9 Seeds: Memphis, Alabama, Southern Miss, Cincinnati
• 10 Seeds: California, Saint Louis, Connecticut, West Virginia
• 11 Seeds: Long Beach State, Mississippi State, Washington, Harvard
• 12 Seeds: Seton Hall, Xavier, Texas, BYU, Miami
• 13 Seeds: Northwestern, St. Joseph’s, Oral Roberts, Iona, Drexel
• 14 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Akron, Davidson
• 15 Seeds: Belmont, Valparaiso, Weber State, UT-Arlington
• 16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, Bucknell, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, Duke, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, Drexel, Memphis, Valparaiso, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Savannah State, Wichita State, UNLV, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, California, Bucknell, Kentucky, Davidson, UT-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (4), Mountain West (3), West Coast (3), Pac-12 (2), Conference USA(2), Missouri Valley (2).

• It was a close call between Duke and Michigan State for the final #1 seed. What temporarily tilted the designation to Duke’s favor is 1) their head-to-head victory over the Spartans back on November 15, 2) wins over North Carolina and Kansas as superior to Sparty’s best victory at Ohio State and 3) four more top-100 wins overall. If Duke falls to the Heels in their rematch at Cameron and State finishes off the Big Ten regular season title, I’d expect them to overtake the Blue Devils by next Monday.
• Ohio State has lost three of their last five games to fall to 23-6 (11-5) on the season, but they still stay on the second seed line, a sign of how much of a gap there was between the #2 seeds and the #3 seeds. Marquette has a chance to surpass the Buckeyes if they beat Cincy, Georgetown and make a run in the Big East Tournament and OSU slips up in two difficult games this week: at desperate Northwestern and at Michigan State.
• Due to bracketing principles and to avoid regular season rematches during the first weekend, Saint Louis and Washington flipped seeds in this week’s bracket.
• It may be hard to believe that USF could be left out of the field with 11 Big East wins, but it’s still a largely empty profile with just one RPI top-50 win over Seton Hall compared to the quality wins of St. Joe’s (Temple, Creighton), Northwestern (Michigan State), Miami (at Duke, Florida State), BYU (Gonzaga) and Texas (Temple, Iowa State, Kansas State). With games at Louisville, vs. West Virginia and the conference tournament remaining, the Bulls have ample opportunity to earn a spot in the field.