The first post-rivalry week matchup in the ACC starts up with an intriguing bout between two teams that may be headed in different directions. Clemson took an easy victory against Wake Forest on Saturday and Virginia lost big to a North Carolina team that was trying hard to put the Duke loss behind them. Now Virginia goes to Clemson for a game that becomes more interesting the more I look at it.
The Only Game In Town
- Virginia at Clemson at 7:00 PM on ESPNU
Virginia is nationally ranked, has a winning conference record, and has beaten Clemson once already this season. Clemson hasn’t been ranked all season, has a losing conference record, and lost to Virginia earlier this season. I would have guessed that Virginia would have a clear edge in this game, but the betting odds have the Cavaliers as a slight underdog coming into this game. Was the Wahoos’ loss to North Carolina so damning that the betting public has simply lost confidence in Virginia? Is there some matchup issue that has newly emerged? What does Vegas know that we don’t? The odds may seem surprising at first, but that’s only because we are probably underrating the value of home court advantage. Virginia won its first game at home against Clemson, but the score was 65-61. A four-point home win isn’t worth that much. A team that wins at home by single-digits wins the in-conference rematch only about 33.0% of the time. Vegas doesn’t know some big secret about Virginia; it just understands home court advantage. Virginia has played well this season, but they are going to have to stretch to win this game on the road.