Rush The Court

Indiana’s star forward Cody Zeller was the consensus preseason pick for freshman of the year in the Big Ten Conference.  Even though early season picks may be biased or based off the recruiting rankings, there were plenty of reasons to believe that he would make an impact during the 2011-12 season.  Indiana isn’t truly “back” until it can prove its consistency on the road – the Hoosiers have only a 2-5 record during conference play outside of Bloomington.  Regardless, they are significantly better than last season and Zeller deserves a fair amount of credit for the turnaround.  But Michigan point guard Trey Burke has made a compelling case with his play to challenge him for the best freshman title. The Wolverines are ahead of the Hoosiers in the conference standings and show no signs of slowing down as Burke continues to improve with each game.

Both of the players might end up as co-freshmen of the year, but who is more valuable to their team and the program?  The quick answer: They are equally important.  However, each of them plays a different role on his team and those differences indicate one of them adding more value so far this season.  The following analysis is a brief attempt to examine the challenging topic.

Individual Contributions

Both freshmen rank among the top 15 in scoring in the conference.  Zeller averages about 15 points per game and Burke is not too far behind with an average of 14.3 per game.  But Zeller scores more despite getting fewer touches within his team’s offensive schemes than Burke.  He is involved in 23% of Indiana’s total possessions while Burke ends up finishing approximately 26% of John Beilein’s offensive sets. Comparing their individual contributions beyond that statistic is unfair because they play different positions.  Zeller can clean the glass with the best of them as he pulls in 6.4 rebounds per game and Burke ranks in the top 10 in the assist category.  Their field goal percentages are not a good basis for comparison because their shot selection is very different, but they are clearly one of the best in the Big Ten at their respective positions.

More valuable: Slight edge to Zeller.

Performance against the top teams

For years, the most valuable player award has been measured outside of the realm of statistics. Player value is determined based on their performance during tough road games or against top-flight competition. Cody Zeller has been consistent against the top teams except when playing on the road.  He couldn’t keep up against Michigan State’s big men (scoring four points) or Wisconsin’s stellar defense (scoring seven points) when the Hoosiers needed him on the road.  Defensively he must learn not to pick up easy fouls because his team needs him on the floor.  Indiana shoots the best deep ball in the Big Ten (40.9% 3FG) but those prayers don’t always sink when they are away from Assembly Hall.  With thousands of students on the road heckling their three-point specialists, they clinch up during the final minutes of the game so Zeller needs to produce consistently in the paint to balance out poor outside shooting.

Burke on the other hand has no problem with the spotlight.  He wants to make a statement that he belongs against the veteran guards of the B1G and rest of the country.  He performed impressively on the road and against top competition — 19 points against Northwestern in Evanston, and 14 against Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor at home.  Even during the tougher road games, he goes down fighting because he wants to make the key plays despite a poor shooting night, especially if his teammates are struggling to find their own shot. During the loss in Bloomington, he kept the Wolverines in the game by scoring a bulk of his 10 points over the final minutes.  Against an underrated Arkansas team on the road, he brought the Wolverines back from a double-digit deficit in the second half and came within an in-and-out three pointer to win the game.  He is acutely aware of the pace of the game and knows when to take over during key possessions.

More valuable: Trey Burke because he has stepped up for Michigan during the final minutes of important games.

Leadership

Intangibles, although very tough to measure, have become significant factors used to understand a player’s value.  Indiana’s road woes aren’t necessarily because of Zeller’s inability but due to his lack of aggressiveness to demand the ball in the post.  There were times during the losses when his teammates forgot about him altogether.  They would rather chuck a bad shot than feed the ball to him down low.  Zeller hasn’t asserted himself onto the team… yet.  That is not a knock against his personality because he is only a freshman so judging his maturity may be a little too harsh this early in his career.  But for comparison sake, Burke has shown an ability to lead. He is an extension of the head coach on the floor and has become the go-to guy for the Wolverines.  Coming into the 2011-12 season, Tim Hardaway Jr. was supposed to be most valuable player for Michigan, but that notion has changed over the last few weeks.  The Wolverines will go as far as Burke will take them, and the Michigan offense moves smoothly with Burke on the court.  He sets up their seniors Zach Novak and Stu Douglass perfectly so they can hit their sweet three-point shots in stride.  His assist rate is about 30.5 but Zeller’s assist rate is only 8.5. Burke’s teammates expect him to deliver during the final minutes of a game.  In Zeller’s case, however, once the ball comes out of the post, it usually doesn’t return to him.  Jordan Hulls or Christian Watford play one-on-one ball and take ill-advised shots rather than commit to score in the paint.  For example, during IU’s game against Michigan, he only attempted six shots until the final minutes of the game!  Tom Crean’s team defines their identity with the long-range shot, not through the post.  John Beilein’s squad, on the other hand knows that the pivotal plays run through Trey Burke and they look for his leadership as a result.  Indiana needs to make a conscious effort to feed Zeller but Burke is already a natural fit for the Wolverines.

More valuable: Trey Burke because he has become a go-to guy for his team more than Zeller.

Zeller and Burke have turned their programs’ directions around in their own specific way.  Zeller provides the consistent post presence that the Hoosiers need because Tom Pritchard wasn’t getting it done as the main guy in the paint.  Michigan fans don’t miss Darius Morris who left for the NBA because of Burke’s presence in Ann Arbor. Without Burke, Michigan would have taken a step back this season but instead they continue to build on the momentum from their late season charge last March. Similarly, without Zeller, the Hoosiers would have relied too much on the deep ball resulting in an unbalanced scoring attack.  Needless to say, the co-freshmen of the year have shown that they will keep their teams in contention over the next few seasons and as a result, they are extremely valuable to the Big Ten conference as a whole.