To understand the magnitude of tonight’s Big 12 showdown between Baylor and Kansas, we must backtrack more than six decades into history. In 1950, the Bears won the Southwest Conference under coach Bill Henderson, cementing itself as a national power by reaching its second Final Four in three seasons. The Jayhawks, still five years away from moving into Allen Fieldhouse, shared the Big Seven title with Kansas State and Nebraska.
Sixty-two years later, Kansas has won 28 additional conference championships (along with two national titles). Since 2005, it has earned at least a share of the Big 12 title, as it has not finished worse than 2nd since the turn of the millenium. Baylor, on the other hand, never won another SWC title. And since the inception of the Big 12 in 1996, only Scott Drew‘s Elite Eight team in 2009-10 has even sniffed a championship when it tied for second. In the other 14 seasons, the Bears finished in the upper-half of the league just three times.
So that’s where we stand on Martin Luther King Day in 2012. With the whole world watching on ESPN’s Big Monday, Baylor has a chance to erase 62 years of history and knock Kansas from the throne of this conference. That is, if it can handle the Phog, where Baylor has never won. Hardly anybody does, after all. But if the first two months of the season has taught us anything, it’s that the Bears aren’t going to roll over on the road. This isn’t the same team that collapsed in 2011-12. With better guard play and a more unselfish offensive attack, Drew’s team has already won at BYU and Kansas State, two of the tougher home venues in college basketball.
The Bears beat Oklahoma State by 40 points on Saturday. They’re undefeated. They have NBA lottery picks up and down the bench and more long, athletic forwards than they know what to do with. But as every hoops analyst has repeated time and time again, “The road to the Big 12 title goes through Lawrence.” That’s why this may be of the more important mid-January games you will see in college basketball.
On an individual level, NBA scouts have to be salivating at the thought of Thomas Robinson playing against Perry Jones and the rest of Baylor’s frontcourt. A Naismith candidate and one of the nation’s top rebounders, Robinson hardly has any weaknesses. He has embarrassed opposing forwards this season because of his tenacity and physicality, and he can also step out and shoot from mid-range when he needs to. That doesn’t mean Robinson isn’t human though. Iowa State’s Royce White outplayed him this weekend, as Robinson shot just 4-10 from the floor and missed four of his six free throw attempts. And he still finished with a double-double. Against the freakishly long Baylor forwards, Robinson will need to play his best basketball. He also could exploit Baylor on the offensive glass, an area the Bears have struggled with at times this season.
Same goes for Jones. He’s starting to break out lately and was particularly impressive against Kansas State’s tough forwards, but the two best player he’s faced this season– West Virginia’s Kevin Jones and Mississippi State’s Arnett Moultrie– both shut him down. Robinson is better than both those players, and Jeff Withey changes the game defensively with his shot-blocking. Jones isn’t in this alone, however. Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller will get a chance to strut their stuff against Robinson and Withey, and it should make for a brutal and entertaining match-up. Baylor’s forwards have been impressive on the defensive end too. Drew has played mostly zone with this group, but against Kansas State, he switched to primarily a man-to-man look in the second half and got great results. They are all so disruptive and frustrating to play against because of their athleticism, which means it is up to Tyshawn Taylor to take care of the basketball and help this offense execute. Bill Self has criticized his team’s half-court offense this season, and against ISU on Saturday, it needed a second-half rally because the Jayhawks couldn’t hit their free throws and couldn’t get threes to fall. Defense was another story altogether– in a good way. The Jayhawks tallied 10 blocks in that game, the kind of effort it needs against Baylor’s future pros in the paint.
The key individual match=up is… Pierre Jackson vs. Tyshawn Taylor. Jackson may not start, but he logs the majority of the minutes at the point for Baylor. His teammates A.J. Walton and Gary Franklin are important here too. They have all got to stay poised at the Phog and get their big men the basketball on the block. Jackson in particular can be a catalyst with his speed and ability to penetrate a defense. He actually plays a lot like his counterpart Taylor. Both are really strong passers and facilitators, but they also make silly decisions sometimes and turn the ball over too much. The difference in Monday’s game might be which one takes better care of the ball.
Baylor will win if… It leans on its depth. The Bears have more options than the Jayhawks. If Jackson does not play well, Walton, Franklin, or Brady Heslip can fill the void. If Jones does not play well, Miller, Acy, Cory Jefferson, and Anthony Jones are all good enough to step up. Kansas doesn’t have that luxury. It needs Robinson to dominate and it cannot afford a rough night by Taylor. The energy of the home crowd will help, but Baylor’s depth could really help it wear down the Jayhawks in the second half. It also affords Baylor a little more room for error from its stars.
Kansas will win if… Robinson and Withey play like animals. On the defensive end, these two guys will not be afraid to compete against one of the nation’s top frontlines. Withey, who averages more than three blocks per game, had seven against Iowa State. His seven-foot stature is also an advantage, even though he’s slower than Jones, Miller, Acy, and the rest of the crew. Robinson isn’t the same kind of shot-blocker, but he’s still a tough post defender and a tenacious rebounder. Baylor might have more depth in the paint, but Robinson and Withey are a difficult tandem to deal with.