Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

On Tuesday, 68 teams still had hopes of reaching college basketball’s pinnacle on April 4 in Houston.

Over a week later, 68 have been whittled down to 16. Whether it’s heavy favorite Ohio State dispatching of their inferiors without breaking a sweat or VCU stunning the hoops world with their thrashings of Georgetown and Purdue, each of the 16 preparing for this weekend’s games have taken alternate routes to this point. Regardless of location, draw or circumstance, this select few is thrilled to still have a pulse.

Let’s delve into each Sweet 16 participant from two polar opposite points of view: the indelible optimist and the hopeless pessimist.  Everywhere from Lawrence to Richmond, fan bases are filled with those that see the glass half full and those that view the glass half empty. The optimist will take the viewpoint that their favorite team is destined for Houston while the pessimist sees the bitter end approaching Thursday (Friday’s teams posted tomorrow):

Connecticut

Optimist: We have the best late-game scorer in the country, a weapon that’s simply uncontrollable with the shot clock winding down and the chips on the table. Unlike the Kemba Walker show that dominated the early months of the schedule, our secondary pieces continue to grow and mature tremendously. Alex Oriakhi has posted three double-digit scoring and rebounding games in our last five contests, Jeremy Lamb is reliable scoring option #2 and Shabazz Napier allows Walker an opportunity to create scoring looks off the ball. Nobody is hotter or brimming with more confidence than my Huskies, who have won seven in a row against #6 seeds or better.

Pessimist: Fatigue has to start to wear on a team consisting of mostly freshmen and sophomores that haven’t been through the rigors. Thursday’s game will mark the tenth game they’ve played in the month of March only. Kemba Walker has rested a grand total of 21 minutes in that brutal stretch. Running on adrenaline can only take him so far; eventually, his legs are going to give and his jump shot will certainly follow. The bruising nature of the San Diego State frontcourt will surely intimidate the inconsistent Oriakhi and we simply lack the depth to match the likes of Malcolm Thomas, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard should he disappear or pick up two early fouls. SDSU also ranks in the top 25 in both two point and three point FG defense. Our pedestrian numbers on the season- 47% from two and 33% from three- will only exacerbate that strength.

San Diego State

Optimist: This team matches up phenomenally with Connecticut and Duke. If Oriakhi disappears like he has in the past, Calhoun has to rely on Charles Okwandu or Tyler Olander and that’ll be their death sentence. Frankly, the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly aren’t a concern. Our bread and butter all season has been defense; with Leonard and D.J. Gay struggling to find their shots late in the season and against Temple, we simply locked down on the other end. UConn hasn’t faced a physical defense like ours since Pittsburgh and there’s no Gary McGhee on this roster that’s a liability switching against ball screens for Walker. We can also throw our steady, dependable senior guard Gay at Walker and make his life plenty more difficult. Our main weakness is three-point shooting and UConn was middle of the pack in the Big East at defending the outside shot.

Pessimist: Did you watch that game against Temple? The second half exemplifies the scoring struggles this team has exhibited all season. We have nobody to drain perimeter jump shots lately with Gay struggling and Fisher unable to compromise our defense and play James Rahon extended minutes. We just don’t have a reliable scoring threat at the end of shot clocks to match the wits of Walker and I can easily envision a devastating lull offensively late in the second half of a tight ballgame. It’s not like UConn won’t be prepared for a physical, athletic defense. They’ve only seen it all year long in the bloodbath that can be the Big East, and, counting the postseason, they’ve won 15 of those duels. The way Leonard was disrupted by the length of Lavoy Allen was deeply concerning and makes me think that Roscoe Smith could do the same for the Huskies.

Duke

Optimist: When Coach K hinted that Kyrie Irving may play limited minutes against Hampton, we immediately became the national title favorite. I was scared to death of Texas; with Joseph and Balbay they can throw two outstanding perimeter defenders at Nolan Smith and Irving and I had zero confidence in Miles and Mason Plumlee containing Tristan Thompson down low. Arizona is a much easier assignment. Their guard play is mediocre offensively and they’ll become well-acquainted with the workings of both Smith and Irving on the defensive end. We’re so much Arizona’s superior defensively it’s not even comparable, another reason why Texas did us an enormous favor by blowing that game. San Diego State doesn’t have the backcourt to survive against our foursome and Nolan Smith can match Walker point-for-point late if Connecticut comes calling. We went 5-20 from three and beat an ultra-confident Michigan team, showing those handful of games where we were dependent on making threes to win are in the past, especially with Irving back in the fold.

Pessimist: I may be in the minority, but I’m not convinced Irving returning is the best thing for this team. Coach K even admitted that he coached two Duke’s this season: one in November with Irving and one the rest of the season without. Now we’re going to transition impeccably back to November Duke without missing a beat? I was much more confident in our ability to score with Smith controlling the basketball at the point and utilizing ball screens at the top of the key. I’m worried about Derrick Williams completely taking  Singler out of his game. Kyle has scored 12 per game in his last four and even missed three straight free throws on Sunday. We may not need him against Arizona, but beating either San Diego State or Connecticut without Singler’s services is a stretch.

Arizona

Optimist: There’s a magical element on this team. Sean Miller was a fantastic hire and has seemingly instilled a fight and desire late in games that have resulted in clutch late victories. Derrick Williams may be limited for 35 minutes on some nights, but everyone knows he’ll be a major factor in the final five. I really believe he can win the battle with Kyle Singler in isolation situations down the stretch in a tight game. Underdogs need to be able to make threes and at 40% on the season and 57% in our most recent outing we’re more than capable of catching fire from deep. Beating Texas with MoMo Jones going 0-6 shows the tremendous depth and multiple weapons Miller has assembled in Tucson in short order.

Pessimist: Let’s face it: this team is extremely lucky to still be playing. Williams probably body-fouled Memphis on his game-saving block and if not for the brain-farts of Texas down the stretch – from Hamilton’s timeout to Joseph’s five-second violation to Hamilton sliding over for an ill-advised charge – the season is over on Sunday. We haven’t played a team of this caliber since Kansas in November and Duke only improved this past week by inserting Irving to the rotation. Our fantastic outside shooting and the heroics of Williams masked a defense that finished an uninspiring #74 in overall efficiency and we were especially decrepit at preventing opponents from scoring inside the arc (51%). With only one regular rotation player above 6’8, who’s going to prevent the Plumlees from playing volleyball with the backboard and giving cold-blooded killers like Smith and Singler those unrelenting Duke kickout threes?

BYU

Optimist: The statistical profiles for us and Florida are strikingly similar, so who usually wins those types of evenly matched games? The team with the best player. Jimmer Fredette fits the bill, no? Florida won’t prevent Fredette from springing for 35 on four days of rest, especially if they hand Kenny Boynton the honorable task of chasing Jimmer around screens the entire night. Boynton’s never exactly been known as an elite defender and that type of concerted defensive effort could hurt his jump shot on the other end. Double him and that leaves Jackson Emery or Noah Hartsock wide open for threes. Everyone overreacted to those New Mexico and TCU games just days after losing Davies. We’ve learned how to play without him and it was evident the way we shredded a capable Gonzaga defense.

Pessimist: As long as Florida continues to play like they have for a couple months now – that’s dumping the ball into the post and playing inside-outside rather than chucking NBA threes for 40 minutes – it’s going to mark the end of this promising season. Ideas for who is going to prevent Vernon Macklin from doing his best Drew Gordon impression on my Cougars? It’s also easy to envision Chandler Parsons handling Jimmer if Donovan decides to put the 6’9 versatile wing on him. He can chase him off screens, frustrate Fredette with his length and Florida has other weapons offensively so Parsons can focus on defense. That’s a stark contrast to BYU. We’re one Fredette off night from going home.

Florida

Optimist: We’re playing our best basketball of the season. Think about it: we’ve lost to one team (Kentucky) since the end of January. Players like Parsons, Boynton and Walker are finally providing consistent production night in and night out. Parsons is a near triple-double machine, Boynton appears to have turned a corner with his jumper and Walker is a flat out assassin in crunch time. The game plan against BYU will be simple: take advantage of Davies’ absence early with Macklin and Alex Tyus, force BYU to double or over-help and create room for our plethora of capable shooters. Expect a significant second chance point discrepancy, too. We rank tenth in the country in offensive rebound percentage while BYU is #222. Neither a #4 or a #8 seed is going to stop this train in the Elite 8, either.

Pessimist: I still don’t completely trust this team. People always overlook Jackson Emery because of Fredette, but he’s undoubtedly a top-five perimeter defender in the country. Plug him on Walker and the straw that stirs the drink of our offense is a non factor. I’m completely uncomfortable with relying on Kenny Boynton and his career 31% mark from three, plus he’s dealing with a sprained ankle. It’s not as though we can trot out an assembly line of reliable big men to take advantage of Davies on the sidelines, either. Macklin only plays 24 MPG and Patric Young just isn’t an offensive threat yet.

Butler

Optimist: Don’t be fooled by our poor defensive efficiency on the season. This has been a completely different team defensively since the stunning loss to Youngstown. Ronald Nored may be a liability offensively, but there’s absolutely no reason why he can’t lock down Jordan Taylor. He limited Ashton Gibbs to just seven shots on Saturday and made both Andy Rautins and Jacob Pullen’s lives miserable last March. The same applies to Fredette or Walker in the next round. Most of our significant minutes go to players with Final Four experience and Shelvin Mack is finding his stride at an opportune time after his numbers dropped across the board this season. Just ask Pittsburgh. Most importantly, though, I firmly believe we have the best coach in this region. The way Stevens had Vanzant deny the ball screen in that final basket on Saturday was genius, especially since Pitt surely expected Butler to take advantage of a switch with Gary McGhee.

Pessimist: What happens when the second most efficient offense in the country (Wisconsin) matches up against the #74 defense in the country (Butler)?  Butler loses. Nored is fantastic defensively against purely offensive players, but Wisconsin’s win over Kansas State showed they have enough of a supporting cast to survive even on an off-night from Taylor. As long as he continues to be his efficient self and run the show effectively, Nored isn’t a factor. Howard isn’t a matchup problem for them, either. It’s not like either Jon Leuer or Keaton Nankivil is uncomfortable operating around the perimeter. The NCAA Tournament is all about matchups and this one stinks for my Bulldogs. The magic has to end sometime.

Wisconsin

Optimist: I truly believe we’re the favorite to win this region. The emergence of complimentary guys like Mike Bruesewitz, Josh Gasser and Tim Jarmusz in that Kansas State game should give them a ton of confidence heading to New Orleans. Frankly, Jordan Taylor isn’t shooting 2 for 16 again, either. Nobody else in this region has a 1-2 punch like Taylor and Leuer. Our record lack of turnovers speaks for itself. And that ability to knock down 82% from the line late in games is infinitely valuable.

Pessimist: Butler frightens me. I actually think Matt Howard and Andrew Smith have the ability to defend Leuer and Nankivil if they stay out of foul trouble. They create mismatches against bruising, wide-bodied big men that are only comfortable in the post and can’t defend ball screens for Taylor around the perimeter. Take our first matchup with Ohio State as an example with Jared Sullinger. As much as guys like Jarmusz and Gasser stepped up against K-State, does anyone really trust them? It’s going to be Jordan Taylor and more Jordan Taylor on those possessions that come down to the end of the shot clock. He can only wear that Superman cape so many times.