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RTC Bracketology Update: 03.12.11

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Saturday, 11:19 PM ET.

First 4 Byes: Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Saint Mary’s.

Last Four In: Penn State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Georgia, Boston College, Southern California, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

  • 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
  • 2 Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Texas, North Carolina
  • 3 Seeds: Florida, Connecticut, Louisville, BYU
  • 4 Seeds: Purdue, Syracuse, Kentucky, Wisconsin
  • 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Vanderbilt
  • 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Georgetown
  • 7 Seeds: Xavier, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  • 8 Seeds: George Mason, Tennessee, Washington, Utah State
  • 9 Seeds: UCLA, UNLV, Gonzaga, Florida State
  • 10 Seeds: Marquette, Villanova, Richmond, Butler
  • 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan
  • 12 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Penn State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Memphis
  • 13 Seeds: Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
  • 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Long Island
  • 15 Seeds: Akron, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  • 16 Seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, UNC-Asheville, Hampton, Arkansas Little-Rock, UT-San Antonio, Alabama State

3/12 changes:

  • Penn State and Ed DeChellis will go dancing. The Nittany Lions needed to beat both Wisconsin and Purdue/Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament to clinch a bid. They completed both scalps and should go to the tournament in Talor Battle’s senior season.
  • Kentucky didn’t help their SEC brethren by thrashing Alabama. If Dayton wins the A-10 Tournament, the Tide are the team to drop out. Richmond also clinched a bid with their semifinal win over Temple, so the conference may end up with four teams in the Dance.
  • Washington jumped up two seed lines with their dramatic Pac-10 Tournament victory. The Huskies made up for a lackluster non-conference performance with two wins over both UCLA and Arizona.
  • San Diego State flipped with BYU. The Aztecs are now the #6 overall team in the S-Curve while the Cougars will either garner a #3 or #4 seed on Sunday depending on how much the committee downgrades them post-Brandon Davies.
  • Florida will earn a #2 seed if they beat Kentucky and win the SEC Tournament tomorrow. Their body of work is tremendous and the Gators will have won both the regular season and tournament titles.
  • Connecticut won five games in five days and now will receive a #3 seed at the very minimum. They were a #6 seed heading into the Big East Tournament. Louisville’s defeat of Notre Dame on Friday, close loss to UConn and entire body of work in the historic Big East (7 RPI top-25 wins, five more than Purdue) gives them a slight edge for the final #3 seed.
zhayes9 (301 Posts)


zhayes9:

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  • I am not really seeing a gap of 3 seed lines between Gonzaga and Memphis. Their profiles look pretty similar to me, with Memphis maybe having a slight edge (see my analysis below), especially considering the head-to-head win by Memphis @Gonzaga. I admit that I am a Memphis fan, but want to say that I am not complaining about Memphis' seed. I am just curious about the gap between their seedings. Is there a big difference between the profiles or are all of the teams in the 7-13 range very close together? Is it an eye test/margin of victory thing?

    Here is my analysis, which ignores margin of victory. RPIs are in ():

    Good wins:
    Gonzaga had the best win (Xavier (22)). Memphis’ sweep of UAB(31) is better than Gonzaga going 2-1 against St. Mary’s. Memphis’ next best good wins (@Gonzaga, UTEP(59) in CUSA championship in El Paso) are better than Gonzaga’s (Marquette(64), OK St.(62)). Plus Memphis had 13 total top 100 wins, while Gonzaga had only 8 (I am giving them top 100 credit for Portland(104)).

    I think Memphis has a clear advantage here. The quantity of the good wins by Memphis and that several of them were true road games is enough to overcome the Xavier win. Xavier is good, but it is not like they will be a #1 seed.

    Memphis top 100 wins: @31 (UAB), 31, 55 (Marshall), @57 (Gonzaga), ~@59 (UTEP), @63 (Southern Miss), 63, 63, @68 (UCF), 68, 73 (Miami), 96 (ECU), 96
    Gonzaga top 100 wins: 22 (Xavier), @46 (St. Mary’s), 46, 62 (Ok St.), 64 (Marquette), 93 (Baylor) (104, @104 Portland)

    Losses:
    Both lost to three good teams, a few bubble/NIT type teams (3 for Memphis, 4 for Gonzaga), and had a few bad road conference losses (3 for Memphis, 2 for Gonzaga).
    Gonzaga probably has an advantage here.

    Good losses:
    Memphis: Kansas(1), Georgetown(13) with Chris Wright, @Tennessee(33) (maybe should be bubble)
    Gonzaga: SDSU(3), @Notre Dame(8), Kansas State(23)

    Bubble/NIT losses:
    Memphis: @Marshall(55), @UTEP(59), Tulsa(81)
    Gonzaga: Memphis(28), St. Marys(46),@Illinois(47), @Washington State(82)

    Bad losses:
    Memphis: @ECU(96), @Rice(187), @SMU(206)
    Gonzaga: @San Francisco(120), @Santa Clara(158)