Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.
Bracket Math (italics indicates automatic bid)
Locks: 34
Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22
Spots Remaining: 12
Currently In The Field: Florida State, Marquette, Illinois, Georgia, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson
Last Four In: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson
First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, Baylor, Colorado State
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Washington State, Oklahoma State, Memphis
1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2 Seeds: BYU, Notre Dame, Texas, Purdue
3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse
4 Seeds: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgetown, St. John’s
5 Seeds: Connecticut, Kentucky, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
6 Seeds: Arizona, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas State
7 Seeds: Cincinnati, George Mason, Texas A&M, Missouri
8 Seeds: Old Dominion, Tennessee, Temple, Washington
9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, UCLA, Florida State
10 Seeds: Marquette, Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Georgia
11 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College
12 Seeds: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson, UAB, Missouri State
13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston
14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Bucknell, Coastal Carolina, Vermont
15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Fairfield, Kent State, Murray State
16 Seeds: Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman
Weekend’s Bubble Games:
Saturday: Virginia Tech at Clemson– It doesn’t get much bigger than this in terms of bubble implications. Both teams need this game desperately. A Clemson loss would likely push them out of the field should Baylor beat Texas or Alabama beat Georgia. A Virginia Tech loss would drop them down to the tenuous Last Four In spots. The winner still has to win their first round ACC Tournament game to be completely safe.
Saturday: Duquesne at Richmond– Mostly due to the faltering of fellow bubble squads rather than any efforts of their own, Richmond has slipped into the projected field. They still in all likelihood need to beat Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals to secure a bid, but a capable Duquesne team is their first obstacle. A loss here would drop the Spiders into NIT territory.
Saturday: Indiana at Illinois– The Illini aren’t a bubble team quite yet and if they simply take care of business at home against Big Ten bottom feeder Indiana, Bruce Weber’s squad is officially dancing.
Saturday: Georgia at Alabama– Alabama just needed a respectable showing in Gainesville on Tuesday night. Instead, they lost by 27 and are currently my last team out. The Tide will need their stingy defense to show up against the talented Bulldogs who are looking to secure a spot in the field with a key road win.
Saturday: Michigan State at Michigan– Here’s another massive bubble clash on Saturday afternoon. A win for the Spartans on the road not only clinches a bid but also drives their bitter rivals from Ann Arbor likely out of the next projected field on Monday. A victory for the maize and blue would be yet another giant step towards one of the more unlikely berths in program history.
Saturday: UCLA at Washington State– Are the Cougars hitting their stride at the right time? Washington State had three must-wins to close their campaign: at Washington, USC and UCLA. They’ve won the first two. A Bruins team that locked up a bid last Saturday comes to Pullman a week later. Washington State is quietly becoming a lurker. Win or lose, they still need a Pac-10 Tournament run to have any hope for an at-large berth. (Star Klay Thompson’s marijuana arrest may put a damper into this just a bit.)
Saturday: Marquette at Seton Hall– Win either of their home games with St. John’s or Cincinnati and Buzz Williams’ team is in the dance. Instead, they’ll try to clinch a spot on the road in Newark against a Pirates squad that just upset the Johnnies. A loss drops Marquette to 9-9 and means the Big East Tournament is where they’ll have to secure their spot.
Saturday: Texas at Baylor– One last gasp for the somehow-still-breathing Baylor Bears. They might be catching a slumping Texas team at the right time, too. A loss at home to the Longhorns could be the final dagger into the hearts of the Bears barring a conference tournament push, but what an opportunity to collect an RPI top-20 win to match their sweep over Texas A&M.
Saturday: Colorado at Nebraska– A virtual elimination game in the Big 12. Colorado is close to the field due to their quality wins over Texas, Missouri and Kansas State twice, but losing to Iowa State and Nebraska with a bid on the line would be too damaging to overcome.
Saturday: Colorado State at San Diego State– This is seemingly a long shot, especially since the Aztecs won’t be anxious to drop two home games in two weekends. The Rams have talent, though, and if they can pull off this massive upset, they might be in the field of 68 come Monday. CSU has to beat either San Diego State or BYU in the next 9 days to make the NCAA Tournament.
Sunday: Wake Forest at Boston College– Not a bad time to welcome Wake Forest to town! The Deacons have won once in ACC play and no-showed last night against Georgia Tech at home, losing by 26. BC needs two more wins to secure a bid- Wake on Saturday and their first ACC Tournament contest.
Sunday: Florida State at NC State– The Seminoles didn’t quite close out their game with North Carolina on Wednesday, but it was a favorable showing for the committee sans Chris Singleton. A win in Raleigh would be the final piece of the puzzle. If they falter in the ACC finale, one more win must be secured in the conference tournament to make absolutely sure.
Sunday: WCC Semifinals– Here’s the first chance for both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga to potentially fall. The Gaels will likely face either Portland or Santa Clara in the semifinals, while Gonzaga will probably play San Francisco. The Zags lost to USF earlier this season. A loss for either WCC banner program could be devastating.