Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

16 days till Selection Sunday as more bubble teams hurt than helped their cause over the last week. Here’s the latest Bubble Watch update on where those teams stand heading into the stretch run:

New Locks

Xavier 21-6, (12-1) 27 RPI, 69 SOS– The Musketeers have now won 11 of 12 to establish themselves in a familiar spot atop the Atlantic 10 standings. Xavier holds a one game lead over Temple and won their only head-to-head matchup back on January 22. With a home game against bottom feeder Charlotte still remaining and an RPI/SOS to back up their record, Chris Mack’s team is safely in the Dance. Xavier also has non-conference wins at Georgia and vs. Butler to go along with Temple and at Richmond in A-10 play.

Temple 21-6 (11-2), 33 RPI, 108 SOS– Despite a plethora of injuries throughout the campaign, Temple has compiled a resume worthy of inclusion into the field of 68. The Owls stand at 11-2 in the Atlantic 10 and it’s highly unlikely they lose any of their final three games at George Washington, at Massachusetts and home vs. La Salle. Temple also beat Georgetown at home and Georgia on a neutral floor and beat Richmond at home. With a decent RPI also boosting their chances, the Owls are a safe bet for a bid.

Texas A&M 22-5 (9-4), 25 RPI, 47 SOS– It hasn’t been the smoothest of waters, but the Aggies have accumulated enough wins to be considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Prior to a 14-point win over Oklahoma in which A&M trailed at halftime, the Aggies won their previous four games by a combined 12 points. With a 9-4 Big 12 mark and a home date with Texas Tech still on the slate, they appear safe. A&M also downed Temple and Washington out of conference and have wins over Missouri and Kansas State during Big 12 play.

George Mason 24-5 (15-2), 28 RPI, 102 SOS– The Patriots certified their NCAA bid with a two-game road sweep at VCU and Northern Iowa. They boast the longest winning streak in the nation and finish with two very winnable games in CAA competition, rendering a 25-5 (16-2) overall mark and top 25 RPI all but a certainty. That should be more than enough in the committee’s eyes for an at-large berth.

UNLV 21-7 (9-5), 30 RPI, 42 SOS– This was a closer call than the previous three, but in today’s bubble climate the Rebels likely clinched a bid with their OT win at New Mexico on Wednesday night. Their RPI/SOS are stellar, they beat both Wisconsin (home) and Kansas State (semi-neutral in KC) away from MWC play and also won at bubble team Colorado State. Even if they should split very winnable games remaining vs. Wyoming and at Utah, 10-6 in the MWC with that Wisconsin win warrants inclusion.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier, Temple.

Richmond 21-7 (10-3), 67 RPI, 170 SOS- The Spiders have faced Xavier and Temple in the last month and lost both games by a combined 43 points, a fact that surely will stand out to the committee when they convene in 16 days. Without much depth in the Atlantic 10, Richmond must first win out their remaining three games against sub RPI top-200 teams Charlotte and St. Joe’s then beat Duquesne at home to have any chance. They probably then have to beat either Xavier or Temple in the A-10 Tournament to earn a bid. Their lone win over an NCAA Tournament team was against Purdue on a neutral floor back in November.

ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina.

Florida State 19-8 (9-4), 45 RPI, 94 SOS– The Seminoles played their first legitimate game without Chris Singleton Wednesday at Maryland and the results weren’t promising. At 9-4 in the ACC, though, Florida State can lock up a bid by winning either vs. North Carolina or at NC State in the last week of the campaign. Luckily their one quality win was potential #1 seed Duke because FSU’s resume is bogged down by a #116 SOS, a horrendous loss at Auburn and only one other win against a possible NCAA Tournament team – Boston College at home.

Virginia Tech 18-8 (8-5), 51 RPI, 97 SOS– The RPI/SOS are poor, but hopefully the committee digs deeper and gives Seth Greenberg a bit of a pass for trying to schedule difficult non-conference games after last season’s debacle. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Mississippi State and UNLV all underachieved relative to expectations and a rash of injuries derailed hopes of a top-two ACC finish. Still, the Hokies have a remarkable opportunity staring them right in the face with Duke at home tomorrow. Win and they can clinch a bid by just splitting their final two games vs. Boston College and at Clemson.

Boston College 16-11 (6-7), 58 RPI, 17 SOS– The Eagles sustained their most devastating loss of the season at the worst possible time falling to Miami (FL) at home on Wednesday. BC badly needed to take care of business against the Hurricanes before heading out to Virginia and Virginia Tech in the next week. Steve Donahue’s team has now lost five games to teams with an RPI or 65 or less and their two wins over NCAA teams are Texas A&M on a neutral floor in November and home vs. Virginia Tech. Assuming a loss in Blacksburg, the Eagles at 8-8 in the ACC will need at least one conference tournament win to have a legitimate chance.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M.

Missouri 22-6 (8-5), 22 RPI, 55 SOS– The only reason Missouri isn’t a lock yet is because of their challenging slate still remaining – at Kansas State, at Nebraska and Kansas. It’s possible the Tigers could fall in all three games and drop to 21-9 (8-8) with only one road win in Big 12 play. Even then, Missouri would only need one or two wins in the Big 12 Tournament to solidify a bid, showing how close Mizzou is to locking up a spot in the field. Mike Anderson’s squad have three RPI top-50 wins out of conference over Vanderbilt (home), Illinois (neutral) and Old Dominion (home) and beat Kansas State (home).

Kansas State 19-9 (7-6), 28 RPI, 6 SOS– Frank Martin’s team took a major step towards an NCAA bid by downing fellow bubble team Nebraska on the road on Wednesday. The Wildcats’ RPI/SOS keeps climbing and that win over Kansas does stand out, plus it appears wins over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga could be worth something. Kansas State needs to reach 9-7 in the Big 12 to clinch a bid and they have home dates with Missouri and Iowa State to accomplish that feat. The sandwich game is at Texas, so it’s imperative the Wildcats protect their floor or they’ll have to win one game in the Big 12 Tournament.

Baylor 17-10 (6-7), 68 RPI, 39 SOS– Any team sitting bubble-out in late February needs RPI top-25 win opportunities. Luckily for Baylor, there are two golden opportunities still on the schedule with Texas A&M and Texas coming to Waco in the season’s final two weeks. The brutal RPI and losses to Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are devastating, and the only factor keeping the Bears alive is their remaining schedule and that road victory at Texas A&M. Baylor probably needs to go 2-1 (at Oklahoma State is the third game left, not exactly an easy win) and make a deep Big 12 Tournament run. For a team with preseason top 15 expectations, 2010-11 has been a bitter pill to swallow for Scott Drew.

Nebraska 18-9 (6-7), 75 RPI, 75 SOS– The Cornhuskers desperately needed to follow up their monumental win over Texas with a victory over Kansas State to continue their uphill climb. The close loss dropped Nebraska to 6-7 in the Big 12 and, with zero quality wins out of conference, they need to win their final three games at Iowa State, home vs. Missouri and at Colorado to have a fighter’s chance. Nebraska is 2-6 vs. the RPI top-25 with a win over Texas A&M to go along with Texas. The lackluster RPI/SOS obviously doesn’t help.

Big East

Locks: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Connecticut, St. John’s, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Villanova.

Cincinnati 22-6 (9-6), 31 RPI, 85 SOS– Chris Wright’s injury and a stifling Cincinnati defense pushed the Bearcats to an unexpected upset road win at #6 RPI Georgetown that may single-handedly push them into the field of 68. Their win at St. John’s keeps increasing in importance and home victories over Xavier and Louisville were a nice boost to a resume anchored by a #281 non-conference SOS, but their win at Georgetown on Wednesday probably put Cincinnati over the top. The Bearcats are now trending more towards 8 or 9 seed territory and need only one more win to clinch a 10-8 Big East mark. Given the state of that loaded conference, 10-8 is sufficient to collect a bid.

Marquette 17-11 (8-7), 54 RPI, 31 SOS– The win of greatest importance Thursday night was Marquette extinguishing demons of numerous close losses this season – only one of their 11 defeats this year was by double digits – and winning in overtime at #15 RPI Connecticut. This gives the Golden Eagles four wins over the RPI top-20 in Big East play. All Marquette needs to do to clinch a bid is win two of their last three regular season games at home against Providence and Cincinnati before traveling to Seton Hall. Marquette has lost a staggering ten games vs. the RPI top-25.

Big Ten

Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin.

Michigan State 15-11 (8-7), 38 RPI, 8 SOS– The Spartans have won three of four since their back-to-back no-shows at Iowa and Wisconsin and their one loss during that stretch was a competitive game at Ohio State. Tom Izzo appears to be turning the ship around behind a healthier Kalin Lucas and Izzo’s always challenging non-conference SOS has resulted in a boosted RPI compared to some of their bubble brethren. Michigan State is 6-9 vs. the RPI top-50 with wins over Wisconsin, Washington, Illinois and a sweep of Minnesota.  Sunday’s matchup with Purdue is a bid-clinching opportunity with Iowa coming to East Lansing next.

Illinois 17-11 (7-8), 43 RPI, 16 SOS– Despite the under-.500 conference record, Illinois is still in decent shape. Their December win over North Carolina looks strong today and they also beat Wisconsin and Michigan State in Champaign during conference play. Illinois still has home dates with Iowa and Indiana sandwiching a trip to Purdue as their last three games. 9-9 in the Big Ten with a middling RPI and two RPI top-15 wins is enough for a spot in the field, albeit with a seed much lower than preseason expectations.

Minnesota 17-10 (6-9), 48 RPI, 36 SOS– It’s evident this team is taking on water without the services of point guard Al Nolen and don’t think the committee hasn’t noticed the staggering contrast. Minnesota is now 1-6 in their last seven games and those include winnable games at the Barn against Illinois and Michigan State along with a road loss at #155 RPI Indiana. Luckily for the Gophers, they still have three RPI top-20 wins to fall back on, but two came in November against North Carolina and West Virginia. Minnesota has three eminently winnable games left – Michigan, at Northwestern, Penn State – and it would do them a great deal of good to win all three.

Penn State 15-12 (8-8), 46 RPI, 5 SOS– The Nittany Lions are still breathing after taking care of business at Northwestern last night, but the next two games bring Ohio State to Happy Valley before traveling to Minnesota for the conference finale. A win over Ohio State and they’re thick in the discussion. Judging by home wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota, and a competitive three-point loss in Columbus in January, next Tuesday’s rematch with the Buckeyes can be had. Their season is on the line. Lose both and they’re finished. Split and work will have to be done during the conference tournament.

Colonial

Locks: George Mason

Old Dominion 23-6 (13-4), 29 RPI, 76 SOS– The Monarchs have won nine of ten down the stretch heading into their CAA finale at home vs. William and Mary. ODU is bordering on lock status and just needs to handle that final game to establish a spot in the field of 68 behind a stellar RPI and quality wins over George Mason, Xavier, Richmond, Cleveland State and at VCU.

Conference USA

UAB 19-7 (9-4), 35 RPI, 65 SOS– The stellar RPI is the only factor keeping UAB in contention and, knowing the committee will dig deeper into their resume, I’m not bullish on the Blazers’ chances. A sweep at the hands of Memphis and a home loss to Southern Miss stings as does a two-point defeat at Georgia from back in early December. UAB has not beaten an RPI top-50 team and their best win is either at Marshall or against fading VCU. Their March 2 meeting at Southern Miss is essentially an elimination game unless either claims the conference tournament crown.

Southern Miss 18-6 (9-4), 36 RPI, 88 SOS– As is the case with their conference foe UAB, the RPI looks better than their actual portfolio. Their win at UAB is the only RPI top-50 win and the sweep at the hands of Memphis certainly hurts. One more loss in their final three games – at UCF, UAB, at Tulsa – is enough to take them out of the at-large conversation. Luckily for all of these CUSA teams, the conference tournament is very winnable.

Memphis 21-7 (9-4), 37 RPI, 56 SOS– The same inflated RPI applies to Memphis. The Tigers resume remains a lot less impressive than the number would indicate. The four RPI top-50 wins are respectable until you realize they’re merely sweeps of UAB and Southern Miss, although the win at Gonzaga just gained a lot more worth. Memphis also had three bad losses to Tulsa, at SMU and at Rice. Their game Saturday at UTEP is crucial. Lose and they’ll likely need to win the CUSA Tournament if the bubble shrinks.

Horizon

Butler 19-9 (10-5), 50 RPI, 81 SOS– Butler’s case to the committee would be boosted if Milwaukee loses at Youngstown State on Saturday and the Bulldogs take care of Loyola at Hinkle Fieldhouse, therefore handing Butler yet another regular season Horizon title. Butler’s chances are fairly simple. If they lose again to anyone but RPI top-50 Cleveland State (say Milwaukee or Valparaiso in the conference tournament), it’s extremely unlikely they earn a spot in the field as an at-large with six poor losses in Horizon League play. Their neutral court win over Florida State only holds so much weight and the Washington State victory means close to nothing. Butler is right on the fringe at this moment.

Mountain West

Locks: BYU, San Diego State, UNLV.

Colorado State 17-9 (8-5), 40 RPI, 26 SOS– The Rams are bubble-out at this point but still alive. They have two RPI top-40 wins at UNLV and vs. Southern Miss and five of their nine losses will be against top five teams if they fall in the season finale on March 5 at San Diego State, but regrettable defeats against Hampton and Sam Houston State also stand out. Upsetting the Aztecs would obviously put Tim Miles’ squad in excellent position for an at-large berth. CSU must win at Air Force tomorrow in a tricky game. It’s going to come down to the MWC Tournament for the Rams where they’ll have to upset either San Diego State or BYU to clinch a bid.

Pac-10

Locks: Arizona.

Washington 19-8 (10-5), 34 RPI, 70 SOS– Although the Huskies lost at Arizona, the competitive nature of that game likely impressed the committee. With three games remaining on a home floor where Washington always plays at another level, the odds of them clinching a bid in the near future are about 95%. Home dates remain with Washington State, UCLA and USC. What better way to clinch a bid than against your bitter rival? The Huskies won at UCLA and beat Arizona in Seattle, but their best non-conference win was against #93 RPI Portland.

UCLA 20-8 (11-4), 39 RPI, 43 SOS– The Bruins are in a similar boat as Missouri. The record and computer numbers look stellar enough to be considered a lock, but UCLA could easily lose their final three games vs. Arizona and at the Washington schools. The bulk of the Bruins resume is their two non-conference wins over RPI top-25 teams BYU (neutral) and St. John’s at Pauley since they fell in both earlier games to Arizona and Washington. Just like the Huskies, win one more game and UCLA is back in the Dance.

SEC

Locks: Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt.

Tennessee 17-11 (7-6), 32 RPI, 2 SOS– Tennessee’s win at Vanderbilt was massive, especially following their disappointing home loss to Georgia last weekend. Despite sustaining 11 losses – with a handful of them utterly confounding – the Volunteers are just one win from moving to lock status and it can come tomorrow at home against Mississippi State. Tennessee has wins at Pittsburgh, on a neutral floor vs. Villanova, swept Vanderbilt, won at Georgia and also beat Belmont twice. If Tennessee falls this weekend, games at South Carolina and home vs. Kentucky conclude the campaign, so opportunities are plentiful to clinch a bid.

Georgia 18-9 (7-6), 41 RPI, 34 SOS– The Bulldogs are in the field if the season ended today. They can lock up a winning record in the SEC by just beating South Carolina and LSU at home. Their season finale at Alabama  presents a chance to earn a spot in the Dance. A 2-1 mark likely means Georgia has work to do come SEC Tournament time. Mark Fox’s team has RPI top-50 wins vs. Kentucky, UAB and at Tennessee. One fact helping their cause is that Georgia’s worst loss this season is against NCAA lock Temple.

Alabama 19-8 (11-2), 66 RPI, 132 SOS– If the committee is every going to deny an SEC team with that conference record, it’s this Alabama squad with their lackluster non-conference results and lagging RPI/SOS. The Tide dodged a major bullet by barely edging Auburn on home on Wednesday and now face the hardest stretch of their schedule, a three game swing that takes them to Mississippi and Florida before heading home for a huge duel with Georgia. Like the Bulldogs, Alabama has wins over Kentucky and at Tennessee, but bad losses to the likes of Iowa, Arkansas, St. Peter’s and Providence. Alabama is in at this moment, but their situation is very fluid.

WAC

Utah State 24-3 (12-1), 24 RPI, 127 SOS– The Gaels loss to Gonzaga last night actually hurts the Aggies because St. Mary’s RPI plummeted to #55. Utah State’s resume is now lacking an RPI top-50 win and, if St. Mary’s slumps all the way to the NIT, a victory over an NCAA Tournament team. The WAC’s embarrassing state also represents a challenge. Still, it’s highly unlikely the Aggies lose in the WAC Tournament. Even if they do, Stew Morrill’s team will have at least 28 wins and two of their three defeats were at BYU and at Georgetown.

West Coast

Saint Mary’s 20-7 (10-3), 55 RPI, 129 SOS– Ouch. Not only did last night’s heartbreaking overtime loss to rival Gonzaga cost the Gaels a chance to celebrate their first outright conference title since 1989, it severely hurt their at-large hopes (as did last Saturday’s loss to Utah State in Moraga). Their season finale against Portland won’t help St. Mary’s much, so it’s going to come down to the WCC Tournament. The Gaels only have one win over the RPI top-50 and it was back in November over St. John’s. They also won at Gonzaga, but the loss to #307 RPI San Diego was stupefying. If St. Mary’s doesn’t win the WCC Tournament, it’s going to be another nervous Selection Sunday for Randy Bennett.

Gonzaga 19-9 (10-3), 76 RPI, 122 SOS– Gonzaga kept their at-large hopes alive last night with that gutty overtime win at St. Mary’s and would probably be in the field of 68 if the season ended today. Gonzaga beat Xavier at home and Marquette on a neutral floor in non-conference play to compliment the St. Mary’s win in Moraga. Gonzaga cannot afford to fall victim to an upset by Santa Clara or San Francisco in the WCC Tournament like they did in mid-January. Gonzaga sits firmly on the bubble and still has work to do. The finals of the conference tournament are a necessity.

On the fringe: Clemson, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri State, Wichita State.