***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.
Tonight you’ll catch three really good games (including two heavyweight Big 12/Big Ten clashes) if you sit down, relax, and watch ESPN2 all night. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.
#25 Texas @ #12 Michigan State – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)
It’s always fun when two name-brand programs go at it and this one is no exception. This is a big game for both teams but especially so for the homestanding Spartans. A loss here would drop Michigan State to 7-4 against D1 competition and once again ignite the questions about this team’s ability over the long haul, regardless of Tom Izzo’s history. Speaking of Mr. Izzo, he’s back after serving a one-game suspension for employing someone connected to a recruit at his basketball camp. Sparty had no problems against Prairie View A&M but Texas poses a stern test for State. The Longhorns look like a better team this year, playing with good chemistry and stronger defense. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency with Texas in the top three in defensive effective field goal percentage. Rick Barnes has a cohesive unit this year that can score as well. With Jordan Hamilton draining threes and Cory Joseph taking over at the point, Texas may just be starting to hit their stride. The key matchups in this ballgame are Hamilton against Durrell Summers and Joseph versus Korie Lucious. When he’s on, Summers can match Hamilton shot for shot. Izzo has moved Lucious to the point many times while shifting Kalin Lucas off the ball. It is essential that each point guard control the ball and get others involved, plus we’re curious to see how the freshman Joseph reacts to the intense environment of the Breslin Center. Each team is deep and talented so the point guards cannot expect to be the stars of the show. The problem for Michigan State all season has been turnovers, something Texas will be eager to force. The Longhorns are deadly when they get out in transition and Michigan State just can’t afford another game chock full of giveaways. Pay attention to the three point line tonight. Michigan State is a very good three-point shooting team, the least we’d expect from what Izzo called a “pretty-boy jump shooting team” after their loss to Syracuse. However, Texas is very good at defending the arc and even better inside it, ranked seventh in two-point defense. The Spartans have three legitimate deep threats and will look to put Texas on notice early and often. On the other end, Michigan State is not good at defending the three. That’s a potentially lethal situation when you have a gunner like Hamilton on the other side. This would seem to be a great time for Michigan State to turn the corner and re-establish itself as a contender with a convincing win over a solid Texas team. We see this game as a closer contest however and Texas can put themselves on the map for good this year with a strong road win. Michigan State is the favorite at home and we’ll take the Spartans by single digits.
#10 Missouri vs. #21 Illinois (in St. Louis) – 9 pm on ESPN2 (****)
The annual Braggin’ Rights game between these two border state rivals is always a must-watch, especially when the teams are good as they are this season. Plus, don’t you love seeing that dividing line right in the middle of the arena separating black and gold from orange? Each team is in the top 25 for the first time in seven years but both programs are dealing with a bit of adversity. The Illini are coming off a brutal loss to Illinois-Chicago while Missouri lost freshman Phil Pressey to a broken hand and will welcome Michael Dixon back from suspension in his place. The story of this game will be pace, essentially who establishes their style of play. Everyone knows Missouri loves to get out and run but Illinois can control this game by protecting the ball against the aggressive Mizzou defense, running efficient half court sets and playing to their strength, defense. Ranked #18 in efficiency, the Illini defense needs to always have a man between Missouri and the basket to stop the ball, otherwise the Tigers will carve them up in both the half court and in transition. Illinois will have success if they force Missouri to play half court offense, taking time off the shot clock and limiting possessions. The most important player in this game is Demetri McCamey. The Illinois senior runs their offense and can shoot the lights out from three. He has to take advantage of Missouri jumping the passing lanes and make good passes to his teammates leading to open looks. Bruce Weber’s team has to take advantage of the mismatch on the perimeter when they have the ball. Illinois ranks #19 in three point shooting while the Tigers are #215 in defending the trey. Meanwhile, Missouri can exploit a weak spot in the Illinois defense inside with Ricardo Ratliffe. Illinois’ interior defense is ranked #118 and the Missouri big man should be able to get Mike Tisdale and/or Mike Davis into foul trouble. Missouri has a bunch of scorers on its roster but, remarkably, they don’t get to the foul line often. Illinois is even worse when it comes to free throw rate but they may get there more often against the foul-prone Tigers. Expect a very close game between two fierce rivals with the outcome in doubt late into the second half. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a determined and focused Illinois team rebound from the UIC loss by knocking off Missouri this evening.
Xavier @ Gonzaga – 11 pm on ESPN2 (***)
These two clubs are down a bit this year but this still should be a terrific game between two teams in need of a nice win. This figures to be a good matchup for Gonzaga as Xavier isn’t a team that excels where Gonzaga falters. The Bulldogs are a poor defensive team, especially against the three, that turns it over a lot. Fortunately for Mark Few, Xavier is one of the worst three point teams in the nation and doesn’t force many turnovers at all. That helps but Gonzaga still has to do the work on their end. The Zags are the better offensive team but they’ll have to contend with Xavier playmaker Tu Holloway (21/5/5). While Holloway shoots just 30% from long range, he’s the key player on Chris Mack’s team whether it is through driving and scoring or driving and dishing. The Musketeers also have a couple big guys who can score, Kenny Frease and Jamel McLean. Frease has really picked up his play of late and both of them are going to play vital roles if Xavier hopes to pull off a difficult road win. Gonzaga is a front court laden team and will be even more so if Steven Gray doesn’t play. He left Saturday’s win over Baylor with back spasms and is still feeling sore. He’ll probably be a game time decision but it’ll be a big boost to Xavier’s chances if he can’t go. Gray adds another dimension to Gonzaga’s offense though we’re sure Few would love if he didn’t turn it over as much as he does. Production out of Robert Sacre and Elias Harris is crucial to Gonzaga’s success in this game, otherwise the Xavier tandem could have their way. That shouldn’t happen with the Bulldogs’ superior inside depth but college basketball is a crazy game, especially if players get in foul trouble. Look for Xavier, especially Holloway, to try and get to the line often. They get 27% of their points from the charity stripe and that will likely put some Gonzaga bigs in foul trouble. If Gray plays, Gonzaga should win behind superior shooting and rebounding but all bets are off if he can’t go. Xavier could really use a quality win away from home and this is a good opportunity, especially if Gray is out.