With Temple’s Road Win at St. Louis, A-10 Race Even Murkier Than Before

Posted by dnspewak on January 12th, 2012

Danny Spewak is an RTC correspondent. You can follow him @dspewak on Twitter. He filed this report following Temple’s victory at Saint Louis on Wednesday.

Saint Louis looked nothing like one of the Atlantic 10′s top defensive teams on Wednesday. Exploiting a mismatch with its four-guard attack, Temple overcame a sluggish effort from senior point guard Juan Fernandez to knock off the Billikens 72-67 at Chaifetz Arena, avoiding an 0-2 start and leaving the A-10 standings as messy as ever. SLU (13-4, 1-2 A-10) could not handle the physicality of the Owls’ guards, especially Khalif Wyatt. The junior led all scorers with 22 points, and his team shredded Rick Majerus‘ man-to-man defense all night to score 44 points in the paint. Temple (11-4, 1-1 A-10) shot 59% in the second half and 56.6% overall, marking just the second time this season Saint Louis could not hold an opponent to less than 50% shooting. And it all happened without normal production from Fernandez, who scored just two points on a 1-8 effort from the field.

Saint Louis Drew Its Second Largest Crowd of the Year

The Billikens never led in the second half, though they did cut Temple’s lead to a single point on two occasions. Even with an animated home crowd behind it — the 8,760 fans marked its second-highest attendance of the season — Saint Louis could not get the defensive stop it needed in the final two minutes. After Kwamain Mitchell‘s three-pointer pulled SLU to within 62-61 with 2:14 remaining, Aaron Brown immediately responded with a three-point play. Then, a turnover led to a thunderous alley-oop in transition by Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson, sealing the Billikens’ first home loss of the season.  ”You have to buck up and gets stops,” senior forward Brian Conklin said. “And we’re not doing that right now.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Checking In On… the Atlantic 10 Conference

Posted by rtmsf on January 4th, 2012

Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @(vbtnBlog)

Reader’s Take 

 

The Week That Was

  • No A-10 Teams in the Top 25, Again: The latest round of the AP and Coaches polls (January 2) show no Atlantic 10 team that gathered enough support nationally to be ranked … for the second consecutive week. Saint Louis missed a good opportunity to impress when the Billikens dropped a four-point decision to New Mexico on Saturday, picking up their second loss in the process. With the next six teams showing three or four losses, the conference is out of the Top 25 conversation for the next few weeks. The other name brands, Xavier and Temple, did not help their causes this past week. Xavier dropped their third game in the last four, this time to Gonzaga in what might have been a good “comparison” game for the Selection Committee. Temple won their third straight, but the last two have not been especially impressive. The Owls may get the conference’s last good chance for some noise when they host #3 Duke tonight.
  • Conference ComparisonsNearly 90% of the out-of-conference games are on the books and the Atlantic 10 has posted a 62.6% winning percentage:

  • Against the six power conferences, the conference has logged a respectable 22-26 (0.458) record. Highlights include .500 or better records against the ACC (7-6, 0.538 – note Temple hosts Duke tonighit, see below), the Big Ten (4-4, 0.500) and the SEC (4-1, 0.800). Conference members logged their strongest numbers against the teams within the conference footprint – those traditional opponents during the out-of-conference portion of the schedule, posting a 63.8% (30-17) winning record against teams located throughout New England, the Middle Atlantic and upper Midwest regions. Against those conferences most likely to compete for the at-large bids not allocated to the power conference teams, the A-10 posted a strong – but deceptive – 23-12 (0.657) record, largely at the expense of the CAA (15-5, 0.750) and C-USA (4-3, 0.571); both show improvement over the 2010-11 season when, through the end of December, the A-10 went 7-10 versus the CAA and 2-5 with C-USA.
  • Conference Play Commences: The conference maintains their traditional “opening night” tipoff with five conference games and a sixth game to be played on Thursday night. Saturday will feature six conference games with the seventh game to be played on Sunday. By next Monday, every member will have logged at least one conference game.

Despite A Tough Start, Tu Holloway And Xavier Will Be A Major Challenger For The A-10 Crown (AP)

Power Rankings

With only a few games scheduled, and those yielding mixed results for the teams at the top of last week’s power ranking, the conference appears to be sliding sideways. Massachusetts disposes of their last out of conference opponents fairly easily to move up a spot, while Temple finishes the month 6-1 and Fordham upsets a ranked team.

  1. Saint Louis (12-2) – The Billikens ended the week 1-1 — the loss coming at the hands of New Mexico (WAC) at the notorious Pit, UNM’s homecourt. Rick Majerus’ crew smothered Texas Southern with defense in a 71-39 win on 12/27, limiting the Tigers to a paltry 0.57 points per possession (or PPP, with 68 possessions per team calculated), about half a point per possession, just over half of the Division I average. Saint Louis’ own 1.04 point per possession hints at the ongoing point production problem with Saint Louis, but when a defense holds an opponent under 0.6 PPP, the team does not need a very efficient offense to win. Brian Conklin earned an Honorable Mention for his 35-point performance over the two games which yielded an average of 17.5 points per game with an eFG% of 68.4%. Very impressive numbers indeed. The Lobos were a different matter, as the Billikens were down two at the half, and gave up another two points in the second half. Saint Louis opens conference play at Dayton Wednesday, then returns home to host George Washington on Saturday. Read the rest of this entry »
Share this story

Checking In On… the Atlantic 10 Conference

Posted by rtmsf on December 29th, 2011


Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter (@vbtnBlog)

Ed. Note – This post was written prior to Wednesday night’s action.

Reader’s Take

 

The Week That Was

  • No A-10 Teams in the Top 25: The release of the AP and Coaches polls on Mon., December 26 showed no Atlantic 10 conference member for the first time in 12 weeks (going back to January 31, 2011 – week #13).  A Xavier three-game losing streak, coming on the heels of the bench clearing brawl in the “Crosstown Shootout” dropped the Musketeers from #15 in the December 19 poll right out of the Top 25. Saint Louis’ own five-game winning streak includes a win over Division II Illinois-Springfield, Alabama State and Arkansas State — not a slate of opponents that will wow the voters.
  • Early Season Invitational Tournaments – Final Tally: The only good news out of the Diamond Head Classic was that the Musketeers finally broke their three-game losing streak with a win over Southern Illinois in the invitational tournament’s seventh place game. Invitational tournament formats frequently match A-10 teams with power conference opponents on neutral courts, giving the conference their best opportunity for quality wins. Results for the 2011-12 season:

At the end of the first cycle, the conference held a promising 21-13 (0.600) margin with six first and third place finishes, suggesting the team either swept the field or won the first two games (before dropping the final). The brightest lights were Dayton (winner of the Old Spice Classic) and Saint Louis (who beat three power conference schools on their way to the championship in the 76 Classic). Temple may have disappointed slightly, but the Owls, along with Richmond, George Washington and Saint Joseph’s, posted very respectable results in their tournaments.

  • Free Todd O’Brien? Attention to the resurgence of the Saint Joseph’s program was diverted two days after the Hawks’ best win of the season, a 16-point drubbing of Big 5 rival Villanova, when Sports Illustrated released fifth year senior Todd O’Brien’s side of his attempt to take his post season eligibility at Alabama-Birmingham instead of Saint Joseph’s. Buzz about Phil Martelli’s squad notching 10 wins before the start of conference play (virtually certain given their last two out of conference opponents) was pushed aside with the details of the Todd O’Brien imbroglio. The fifth year senior, a transfer from Bucknell who started 28 games in the 2009-10 season and was a serviceable rotation player last season, completed his undergraduate course work over the summer and enrolled in one of Alabama-Birmingham’s MBA programs and play for Mike Davis in his last season of eligibility. Saint Joseph’s, however, denied O’Brien’s application for a Graduate Student Transfer Exception (a release from his athletic scholarship) with no explanation given. O’Brien went public with his version of events, and so far, Saint Joseph’s, and specifically Martelli, has cited student confidentiality as the reason for not responding.

Fordham (Dereck Whittenburg and Jio Fontan), Providence (Keno Davis and Joseph Young) and Siena (Fran McCaffery and Kojo Mensah) were warning signs that Saint Joseph’s ignored. Though Martelli, as did McCaffrey, Davis and Whittenberg before him, may feel justified in denying O’Brien his release (fans and “program insiders” floated three variations of “Todd O’Brien is a bad boy” in the first 24-48 hours after the story was released), the veteran coach has to understand that the notion of a coach and program were gamed by a scholarship athlete never gets much traction with the public, and the university’s strategy of not talking about it gives O’Brien all of the air time on this issue.

Todd O'Brien (right) and Phil Martelli (left) Have Been Caught In A Verbal Tug-Of-War

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Checking In On… the Atlantic 10

Posted by rtmsf on December 15th, 2011

Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @(vbtnBlog)

Reader’s Take

 

The Week That Was

  • Rivalry Week – the Out of Conference Edition: Throughout the East, in the years before the rise of the conferences, the season was the warm-up for the season ending finales – games with the local rivals. The conferences changed that dynamic, as teams from the same media markets found themselves locked in races for conference titles that increasingly translated into NCAA postseason bids. And local rivals find their matches relocated to the earliest parts of the season. As the fall semester (or quarter) winds into final examinations, the weeks leading in have become the non-conference equivalent of “Rivals Week,” and had ESPN looked at the A-10 schedule, they would have found over one-third of conference members squaring off with their most-often faced local opponents.
  • Brawl City: Xavier and Cincinnati have played 79 times, meeting annually since 1947, in what has become known as the “Cross Town Shootout”. Though Xavier won three of the last four meetings, last season’s 66-46 Bearcat rout at Fifth Third must have gone to Cincinnati guard Sean Kilpatrick’s head. In what will no doubt become a teaching point for future Mick Cronin teams, Kilpatrick, in the run-up to the game, opined on local radio that Xavier’s All-American candidate, senior guard Tu Holloway, was probably not good enough to start on the Cincinnati team. Bad move, Sean. The 2011 A-10 Player of the Year responded with a stellar 17-point performance that include going 5-for-10 (1-of-5 three-pointers, 4-of-5 two-pointers) from the field and a perfect 6-for-6 from the line to go with a game-high six dimes. In the post game press conference the clearly agitated Holloway told the assembled scribes that “you do your talking after the game, not before…”. If only Holloway had followed his own advice. With less than 30 seconds to play, during what most likely would have been Cincinnati’s last possession of the game, the obviously incensed Holloway, still in the game for reasons unknown, passed by the Cincinnati bench (the 1:30 mark in the video below), and taunted the Bearcat bench with, “this is MY CITY”.

  • Additionally: As Cincinnati freshman guard Ge’Lawn Guyn, Holloway’s defensive assignment, put himself between Holloway and the bench, the two went chest-to-chest and Holloway raised his arms as if to strike Guyn. Xavier freshman forward Dezmine Wells, however, beat him to it, throwing the first punch in a bench clearing brawl that has to be the low point in this season. Xavier senior center Kenny Frease suffered a black eye (and no doubt a ripping headache the day after), the result of a sucker punch from Cincinnati forward Yancy Gates and a kick to the head delivered by Cincinnati center Cheikh Mbodj. Both Cincinnati players were suspended for six games. Cronin and the Cincinnati AD also suspended freshman forward Octavius Ellis for four games, and Guyn for one game. Xavier doled out suspensions to Wells (four games), Landen Amos (four games), junior guard Mark Lyons (two games) and Holloway (one game). Cincinnati holds a 58-41 edge in the series. The other four rivalry games may have been every bit as intense, but no centers were harmed in the playing of the games. Read the rest of this entry »
Share this story

Checking In On… the Atlantic 10 Conference

Posted by rtmsf on December 6th, 2011

Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the A-10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @vbtnBlog.

Reader’s Take

 

The Week That Was

Early Season Performances – The Oooh Aaaah Variety (Teams & Individuals)

The A-10 evened the record versus the six power conferences again last week, largely on the strength of performances by Xavier and Richmond. Xavier needed overtime to beat Vanderbilt in Nashville. Down by two with just under four minutes in regulation, Xavier held Vanderbilt scoreless and managed to tie on a Mark Lyons jumper with six seconds remaining in regulation. In overtime the Musketeers took the lead for good 68-66 on two Dezmine Wells free throws and Tu Holloway put a large enough margin between the teams (about eight points) when he hit two threes in successive possessions to absorb a Commodore mini-run. Vanderbilt chipped the Musketeers’ lead down to four, but could get no closer. Forced to foul, Holloway and Travis Taylor went a perfect 6 for 6 from the line to stretch the lead to 10 and suck the life out of the Commodore comeback.

Hosting Purdue five days later, Xavier again went down early, allowing Purdue to take the lead at the 18:49 mark of the first half and hold it for the next 37 minutes of play. The Boilermakers took an 11-point lead into the intermission and stretched it to 15 in the first 6:30 of the second half. Over the next 12:24 Xavier outscored Purdue 29-13 to take the lead for only the second time in the game. Once in control, the Musketeers did not let the Boilermakers back in, pushing their lead out to three in the last minute of the game.

As for Tu Holloway’s (and Xavier’s) week, we can’t say it any better than Rob Dauster over at Ballin’ is a Habit. Ok we could, but cut and paste required fewer key strokes and brain cells:

Those numbers are more interesting, however, when you break up the game. For example, with 3:30 left in overtime against Vanderbilt, Holloway had just 14 points on 4-17 shooting. That stat line looks much more impressive after he hit back-to-back threes on the next two possessions and four straight free throws down the stretch to seal the win. Likewise, against Purdue, Holloway had just 10 points and six turnovers in the first 38 minutes of the game, but in the final two minutes he hit a three on three consecutive possessions (video of the last two below) and followed that up with two free throws, completing the most impressive comeback of the young season…in the final three minutes against Vanderbilt and the last two minutes against Purdue, Holloway had 21 points, went 5-6 from beyond the arc and knocked down all six of his free throws attempts.

The Richmond squad had to replace 59% of their minutes and 68.6% of their scoring from the squad that won the A-10 conference tournament and ran to the Sweet Sixteen last March. Freshman point guard Kendall Anthony, three times designated Rookie of the Week by the conference, has picked up a load of time and scoring responsibilities for the Spiders so far. Richmond leaned heavily on Anthony along with sophomores Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams for offense. Both chipped in double digit points to complement Anthony’s production. Lindsay was a serviceable back-up to senior point guard Kevin Anderson last season, but Williams, who has started all eight games for the Spiders, saw very little action as a freshman.

Overlooked Temple off guard Aaron Brown turned heads the summer before coming to North Broad, but had few opportunities to show Temple fans and the A-10 what he could do. Brown scored 21 points in 22 minutes in a display during Temple’s 86-74 win over Central Michigan. Ken Pomeroy would find hard to ignore his performance, as he hit 7-11 (4-7 from three point land, 3-4 from inside the arc) shots from the floor while getting to the line for five free throws, of which he hit three. That computes to an 81.8% eFG% with a 1.57 points per weighted shot, an outstanding outing for the sophomore, who was pressed into action due to the injury-depleted squad.

Early Season Performances – The What the !@#!@@!# Variety (Teams & Individuals)

After winning their early season invitational tournaments, beating four power conference opponents (two each) during the tournament, both Dayton and Saint Louis stumbled in post tournament games. The losses are puzzling because for both teams, the games were winnable. Saint Louis took an “and-one” game with Loyola Marymount of the West Coast Conference, losing by seven with a performance that had team observers scratching their heads. Dayton compounded the first post tournament loss (by 29 to Buffalo of the MAC) with a second loss, this one by 17, to Murray State of the Ohio Valley Conference. The opponents were beatable, making the scoring margins downright consternating. Dayton was pegged to finish in the middle of the conference, but the two unexpected losses (albeit the Racers will most likely contend for the OVC title this season) could damage the Flyers chances for a post season NIT bid. Other inexplicable losses go to Saint Bonaventure’s home loss to Arkansas State of the Sun Belt Conference, a 3-4 team no one expects to make noise this season. The Bonnies were not helped by a lackluster six-point, nine-rebound effort from Andrew Nicholson.

Power Rankings

The Power Rankings are shuffled again this week in response to the Ooohs, Aaaahs and What the heck games listed above. For the Atlantic-10 the post season margin for error is exceedingly slim. Three losses going into the first or second week of December can take a school off the RPI short list pretty quickly.

1. Xavier (6-0) #8 AP – Xavier took down two more power conference programs last week in fashion impressive enough to climb three more spots in the AP poll. I listed many of the impressive details in the impressive performances section above, but  in addition to the video link below that shows two of Tu Holloway’s three “last two minute” three point field goals below (h/t to Dana & Victory Blog for the link). I should also mention that in Nashville Mark Lyons (19 points) and Travis Taylor (11 points) chipped in more than 10 apiece to go with Holloway’s 24 point performance, while Antoine Walker collected 14 rebounds in his return to Vanderbilt where he played for three years. Versus Purdue three Musketeers, Lyons (14 points), Walker (10 points) and Kenny Fraese (10 points) chipped in double digit points to complement Holloway’s 21 point outburst.

 

 

Xavier will travel to Indianapolis Wednesday for a game with Butler, then return home to host this season’s Crosstown Shootout versus Cincinnati on Saturday. Win these next two and Chris Mack’s squad deserves something special, like Christmas in Hawaii…wait.

2. Saint Louis (7-1) –Their top 25 ranking proved surprisingly short, the penalty for stumbling against the Lions last Tuesday. St. Louis recovered to beat another WCC team, Portland  by 20, 73-53 at the Chaifetz. The Billikens’ defense limited Portland to 0.90 points per possession, much as they had Boston College and Oklahoma. Scoring centered on Brian Conklin and Cody Ellis, with Kyle Cassidy and Mike McCall providing efficient long-range scoring. They will host Vermont on Wednesday and Division II Illinois-Springfield on Saturday.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Checking In On… the Atlantic 10

Posted by Brian Goodman on November 29th, 2011

Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the A-10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @vbtnBlog.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was:

Early Season Tournaments – The Conference Crossroads: Though the invitational tournaments come in three different formats, they provide A-10 members with the opportunity to face-off against competition from other conferences. If the tournament is a “destination”, all the better, as those often offer one or two games versus power conference opponents on a neutral court. Mixed format tournaments can provide the A-10 member with the chance to play a power conference opponent and then host a sub-regional mini-tournament afterward, as George Washington did for the Preseason NIT last season and Rhode Island did for the Legends Classic this season. Despite the road game incentive built into the RPI, the NCAA does little to discourage the power conference practice of guarantee games beyond officially “frowning” on it. Unless you are Xavier or Temple, your best chance to see a power conference team in a venue besides their home court (on the front end of a home-and-home agreement) is to join one of the early-season invitational tournaments. Though Xavier will spend Christmas in Hawaii at the Diamond Head Classic, virtually all early-season invitational tournaments concluded on or before Thanksgiving Weekend. How did the Atlantic-10 do?

 

 

The 21-13 record reveals both hope (Dayton, Richmond and Saint Louis) and fear (La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island) as the season progresses, but overall, the 61.8% winning percentage will help the conference come Selection Sunday. Flyer fans can look to a surprise first-place finish in the Old Spice Classic that included wins over Wake Forest out of the ACC and Minnesota from the Big Ten, as signs that the Dayton program revival is ahead of schedule under rookie coach Archie Miller. Saint Louis rolled through the 76 Classic field, cutting through three power conference opponents in four days like a hot knife through butter. No one, not Boston College (ACC), Villanova (Big East) nor Oklahoma (Big 12) could get closer than 11 points to the Billikens in their final scores.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Checking In On… the Atlantic 10

Posted by Brian Goodman on November 23rd, 2011

Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @vbtnblog.

The Week That Was:

How They Measure Up: Results by Conference

The A-10 teams played 51 games from November 9 through November 22 against teams from 22 conferences and an independent. The overall record, 34-17 (0.667) may leave fans optimistic as last season’s final winning percentage was 0.589, but the season is very, very early with less than 25% of the schedule in the books. Whether conference members can draw a fourth (or even a third?) bid depends to a considerable degree on how the conference as a whole fares against the power conferences and against schools that will form the pool of at-large candidates.

Conferences not played have been omitted. A few oddities should catch the reader’s attention. First, only Saint Bonaventure has engaged a MAAC school so far, unusual for the conference. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference is largely made up of private colleges (many of them Catholic) located in a footprint that stretches from the Capital Region in New York State, west to Lake Erie and south through metropolitan New York down to Maryland. Many MAAC schools share basketball traditions with Fordham and St. Bonaventure, and many of the other A-10 members from New England and Philadelphia. Second, the A-10 is killing the CAA this season, notching a 5-1 record so far. Granted less than a third of the scheduled games have been played, but A-10 teams had to close with a rush of wins to bring last season’s head-to-head record to 7-10, and conference fans watched with mixed emotions as the second CAA team in four seasons advanced to the Final Four last March. While only George Mason from among the CAA’s elite teams has been engaged (and GMU squeaked by, beating Rhode Island in overtime), the early returns are promising. The winning percentage against the power conferences is much lower than last season’s 0.469, but again the season is early as the conference has completed only 20% of their anticipated slate. Excluding the ACC where the A-10 holds a 2-0 edge so far, the conference’s only other power conference win came Sunday against Washington. While the lopsided record compiled against the CAA is the largest influence in the composite record, the A-10 has compiled an 8-1 record versus conferences with a similar profile (the CAA, CUSA, MWC, WAC and MVC), conference teams have sustained winning records against MWC and CUSA competition as well as the CAA.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Conference Primers: #8 – Atlantic 10

Posted by Brian Goodman on October 30th, 2011

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can find him on Twitter @vbtnBlog.

Reader’s Take I

The A-10 has earned three invitations to the NCAA Tournament in each of the last four seasons. Xavier and Temple, as they have for the past two seasons, will claim two bids.


Top Storylines

Xavier's Tu Holloway Is A First-Team All-American Candidate And One Of The Nation's Best Seniors

  • A-10 to Barclays in 2013: Barclays Center, under construction in the New York City borough of Brooklyn, is in the market for multi-day sporting events while the Atlantic 10 is looking for a bigger stage for their post season tournament — a perfect match perhaps? The two announced a deal late last month that will move the 2012-13 A-10 Conference Tournament to the 675,000-square-foot, state-of-the-art sports and entertainment venue that will feature an 18,000 seat arena for basketball. The Atlantic 10 has vacillated between rotating campus sites and a “permanent neutral” site since the first conference tournament in 1976-77. The current location since the 2006-07 tournament, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, is a 10,500 seat amphitheater. While technically neutral, the attendance is up when one or more of the Philadelphia contingent (La Salle, Saint Joseph’s and/or Temple) advances to the quarterfinal round and beyond, and down when they do not. The conference will return to Boardwalk Hall for their 2011-12 tournament, then move over to Barclays Center the following season.
Share this story

Checking in on… the Atlantic 10

Posted by Brian Goodman on March 2nd, 2011

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10.

A Look Back

Duquesne, despite an 0-2 week, continues to be ranked #2 in net efficiencies through Monday of this week (2/28/2011). Duquesne dropped into a fourth-place tie with Rhode Island after they sustained losses to the Rams and Saint Louis last week. While they have dominated enough games that their decline in net efficiency has not matched the decline in their won-loss record, it is clear the Dukes are suffering a severe end of the season slump. Bad timing, as a few of the conference teams need to finish their schedules strongly to earn bye seeds to Atlantic City, or at least secure home court advantage for the first round of conference tournament play. Xavier, Temple, Duquesne and Richmond, all of whom have maintained positive net efficiencies through the entire conference slate, were joined this week by a revitalized Dayton squad.

An oddity noted the past several weeks, but present through much of the A-10 conference regular season, is the inbalance between the teams with positive net efficiencies and those with negative net efficiencies, narrowed yet again when Dayton “crossed over” and joined Rhode Island on the plus side of net efficiency line. The gap between the “haves” and “have nots” has narrowed, as well, with the range between the top (Rhode Island with +0.020) of the middle four schools in the conference and the bottom (Saint Louis -0.019) is only 0.039, a gap less than that which separates Xavier from Temple (0.046) and less than a third of the gap which separates Fordham from Saint Joseph’s (0.122). I speculated last week about whether the relatively “bottom-heavy” conference would hurt Richmond’s chances for an NCAA berth, and it now appears as if that was premature as both Bracketology 101 (best predictive record over the past five seasons) and Joe Lunardi over at ESPN have Richmond in their field of 68. RTC bracketologist Zach Hayes lists the Spiders among the “first four out” in his February 28 bracket.

For those who wonder what happened to their team in conference play, the grid below should be helpful. The average efficiency for the conference is 1.018 (or 101.8 points per 100 possessions) — conference games only. By comparing each team’s offensive and defensive efficiency to the conference average (average for all conference games), I was able to determine whether the team had a “better than average” offense or defense (or both or neither). The grid below confirms the narrative of the conference season…

…with a few twists and insights. While two of the three “Good/Good” teams, Xavier and Temple, are entirely predictable, those who wonder why Richmond, despite preseason predictions, has struggled to secure their place in the NCAAs, the answer (from the chart) suggests it may have to do with defense. The Spiders have provided enough offense, but have struggled defensively in several conference games this season (Xavier, Temple and at George Washington). Through 14 conference games the Spiders are ranked #10 in shot defense (eFG%) and #9 in defensive rebounding, two factors that hurt when matching up with Xavier and Temple in particular. The key to the Bonnies revival this season is offense, while Rhode Island’s late season resugence has come through defense. The oddest team on the grid is George Washington. The Colonials tout an 8-6 record through 14 conference games, yet register below average (“Bad/Bad”) in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The paradox is resolved by noting that Coach Hobbs’ club as won a number of close conference games, two with La Salle (72-67 & 82-80), versus Saint Louis (52-46) and at Charlotte (73-67) for example, while also losing by double digits to Temple (41-57), at Duquesne (59-84) and at Richmond (58-68). Consistency matters too, it seems.

Power Rankings

The top team is Xavier. The Muskies settled it on the floor of the Consol Arena Sunday with a comfortable win over Duquesne, who dropped to #4 in the conference “record rankings.” Oddly, the bottom spot was also settled on the court, on Sunday and also with the host taking the loss. Saint Joseph‘s will now battle with Charlotte for the last spot in the first round of the A-10 Conference Tournament. Rhode Island also had a good week, while Dayton did not. Those developments are also reflected in the conference rankings and this week’s power rankings.

1. Xavier (22-6, 13-1) #23 AP

Last Week: 2/27 @Dayton 66-62

Next Week: 3/2 vs. Charlotte, 3/5 @St. Louis

Xavier continues to roll, pushing Dayton away 66-62 in a late season game that has become a conference television event. Tu Holloway again posted game-high points, 26 this time, as the Musketeers completed their sweep of the Flyers. The X-men moved up to #23 in the latest AP poll (Monday 2/28). In retrospect, the late season road game at Georgia was a very smart scheduling move. Coach Chris Mack‘s squad has games against Charlotte and a visit to Saint Louis to finish the week. Should Xavier drop both games, the #1 seed in Atlantic City would most likely go to Temple. Given the 49ers and Billikens have a combined 7-21 conference record however, those chances are pretty small (a quick log5 calculation puts the probabilities of winning both games at 70% — very, very likely). Go 1-1 and Xavier will still take the #1 seed by virtue of their holding the tie breaker over Temple. For a team that looked like their season was over on January 6, Xavier’s comeback is remarkable and a tribute to the coaching staff and players.

2. Temple (22-6, 12-2)

Last Week: 2/23 @Duke 61-78, 2/26 @George Washington 57-41

Next Week: 3/2 @Massachusetts, 3/5 vs. La Salle

A 1-1 week with a 17-point loss at Duke was the lowlight to Temple’s next-to-last week of the regular season play. Lavoy Allen took his second Player of the Week citation from the conference. The Owls are adjusting to life without Michael Eric. Temple has two conference games this week. They travel to Massachusetts for a game with the Minutemen on Wednesday, then back home for the regular season closer with Big 5 rival La Salle. A 2-0 week is very probable (the log5 probability per Ken Pomeroy is 78.9%, very likely). The Owls own the tie-breaker over Richmond, so a 1-1 week most likely still earns them the #2 seed in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

3. Duquesne (17-10, 9-5)

Last Week: 2/23 vs. Rhode Island 76-77, 2/26 @St. Louis 51-62

Next Week: 3/2 vs. St. Bonaventure, 3/5 @Richmond

The Dukes ran their losing streak to three through the games of last week. After an 8-0 start to conference play, Duquesne has logged a 1-5 record in conference play. Talk of an NCAA bid (remote short of an outstanding record — 14 or more wins for example — in conference play), vanished with their loss to Xavier on February 13, the Dukes nevertheless hold a #3 in the NIT field per The Bracket Project and an #8 seed per John Templon’s computer projection. Templon’s #8 seed puts the Dukes on the NIT bubble, something that could be addressed with at least one win in games of the last week of conference play. Ron Everhart and the Dukes host the Bonnies on Wednesday, then take to the road to close out the regular season in Richmond on Saturday. The Dukes have lost out on the last bye seed in Atlantic 10 Tournament, but even if they log another 0-2 week (not probable) they will host a first round A-10 Tournament game. No question Duquesne fans have to be disappointed with the team’s play over the last six games (a -0.020 net efficiency and 0.440 Pythagorean Winning Percentage), the good news is wins away from the Palumbo this season. The 2010 Dukes logged a 3-8 (0.273) record in away and neutral games that included a net efficiency of -0.102. This season Duquesne has a 0.093 net efficiency reflected in their 8-7 (0.533) record.

4. Richmond (22-7, 11-3)

Last Week: 2/26 @Charlotte 72-59

Next Week: 3/2 @Saint Joseph’s, 3/5 vs. Duquesne

Richmond closed their series with Charlotte with a 13 point road win. The Spiders have locked down at least a #4 seed in Atlantic City, bypassing the first round game for the second consecutive season, irrespective of how they play against Duquesne. A worst case for Coach Mooney’s team is an 0-2 week with a corresponding 2-0 from Rhode Island, in which case the Runnin’ Rams would take the #3 seed and push the Spiders down to a #4 seed (with a semi-final game versus Xavier, should both survive the quarter final round on Friday). A relatively unlikely possibility however, since the Spiders have a two loss edge over Rhode Island and play 3-11 Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday, a game Pomeroy projects as a win to a 80% probability. While Richmond has had some inconvenient timing with home games this season (Bucknell, Rhode Island and Xavier ring a bell?) and the Dukes have improved away from Palumbo this season, the Spiders have to be favored to close out the regular season with a win and a 13-3 conference record because Richmond is a consensus bubble team for the NCAAs right now, and finishing with a good run can only help their chances. Bracketology 101 has Richmond in as an #11 seed (last eight in territory), while RTC’s Zach Hayes has Richmond (just barely) out.

5. Rhode Island (18-10, 9-5)

Last Week: 2/23 @Duquesne 77-76, 2/26 @Fordham 90-58

Next Week: 3/2 vs. George Washington, 3/5 @St. Bonaventure

Rhode Island logged a 2-0 week to bounce back yet again and leapfrog the Flyers in my power ranking. The road win over slumping Duquesne gives Jim Barron‘s team the tie-breaker over the Dukes — both share #4 in the conference standings through March 1. Fourth place is the last bye seed in Atlantic City, and would allow the Runnin’ Rams to rest through the front end of next week, when eight of the conference’s 14 teams will go head-to-head one last time to decide who goes on to spend the weekend in Atlantic City, NJ. Rhodi’s last two will not be easy, hosting George Washington on Wednesday and traveling to St. Bonaventure on Saturday. Both the Bonnies and Colonials have improved with more season play. Sweep and Rhode Island has the last bye seed irrespective of other outcomes. Lose one or (horrors…) both, and final standings get complicated. Though an NCAA invitation will only come should the Runnin’ Rams run the table in Atlantic City, they are very much in play for an NIT berth, currently seeded #8 in both The NIT Bracket Project and John Templon’s computerized projection Rhode Island is on the (NIT) bubble, but a second 20 win season and strong finish in conference play should secure them a place in the field of 32.

6. Dayton (19-10, 7-7)

Last Week: 2/27 vs. Xavier 62-66

Next Week: 3/2 vs. Saint Louis, 3/5 @George Washington

Dayton logged an 0-1 week and dropped back to a 0.500 record in conference play. The Flyers, currently in a three-way tie for #7 (Massachusetts holds the tie-breaker), have an opportunity to move up to sole possession of #6 if they can beat both Saint Louis and George Washington to close out conference play. The Colonials have not been dominant at home during conference play (a 0.013 net efficiency for their seven conference home games), but the Flyers have been something less than Road Warriors themselves, logging an anemic -0.018 net efficiency in seven conference road games. Pomeroy’s log5 projection narrowly gives the game to the Flyers.

7. George Washington (15-13, 8-6)

Last Week: 2/23 vs. Charlotte 74-57, 2/26 vs. Temple 41-57

Next Week: 3/2 @Rhode Island, 3/5 vs. Dayton

The Colonials beat Charlotte on Wednesday, but lost (predictably) to Temple Saturday. This last week could be a Statement Week for Coach Karl Hobbs’ squad. Both games are with NIT teams from 2010, and teams close to the sixth ranked (in conference standings) Colonials. Take both and GW has assured themselves of home court advantage for the first round of conference play. Lose both and GWU closes the regular season with a 0.500 records, both in conference (8-8) and overall (15-15).

8. St. Bonaventure (15-12, 7-7)

Last Week: 2/23 vs. Fordham 82-63, 2/26 @Saint Joseph’s 65-79

Next Week: 3/2 @Duquesne, 3/5 vs. Rhode Island

Coach Mike Schmidt’s Bonnies thumped Fordham, but lost by 14 to struggling Saint Joseph’s. Though finishing the regular season above 0.500 and assuring themselves of at least a first round game in the Atlantic 10 Tournament has to be gratifying, locking down a homecourt advantage for the tournament has been squandered with the Saint Joseph’s loss. The last two games are interesting because both Duquesne and Rhode Island are tied for #4 in the conference standings and in the conversation for an NIT berth. Win both and the Bonnies will most likely tie for #6 in the conference standings and grab the #7 seed (and home court advantage) for the first round of the A-10 tournament (and play St. Louis). Win neither and St. Bonaventure will do no worse than last season’s 7-9, a #9 seed and trip to Washington DC for a first round tournament game at George Washington.

9. Massachusetts (15-12, 7-7)

Last Week: 2/23 vs. Saint Joseph’s 69-51, 2/27 @La Salle 49-72

Next Week: 3/2 vs. Temple, 3/5 @Fordham

The Minutemen posted another 1-1 week, beating Saint Joseph’s by two and dropping a 130point decision on the road to La Salle. Best case scenario for Derek Kellogg‘s squad is a 9-7 finish and a #6 place tie with Dayton. UMass holds the tie-breaker, which would give the Minutemen the home court for a first round game versus Saint Louis, a team they lost to during the season. A more likely 1-1 week would probably put UMass in tie for #7, good for the #8 seed and a first round game (at home) versus (most likely) St. Bonaventure.

10. La Salle (13-16, 5-9)

Last Week: 2/27 vs. Massachusetts 72-49

Next Week: 3/2 vs. Fordham, 3/5 @Temple

The Explorers logged a 1-0 week, beating Massachusetts in convincing. The losing streak stops at three games. Best finish for the Explorers at this point would give them a win over Big 5 rival Temple (and level their season series at 1 apiece) and a #10 seed for the A-10 tournament. Dr. Giannini’s squad would most likely travel to Massachusetts for a first round game with the Minutemen, a team that beat them by 23 last week. A more likely scenario has La Salle finishing conference play with a 6-10 record, but still with a claim to the #10 seed in the tournament.

11. Saint Louis (11-17, 5-9)

Last Week: 2/26 vs. Duquesne 62-51

Next Week: 3/2 @Dayton, 3/5 vs. Xavier

The Billikens posted a 1-0 week, complements of an 11 point win over fading Duquesne and a Rookie of the Week effort from Dwayne Evans. Finishing out with Dayton and Xavier is a tough road for Rick Majerus‘ charges. No doubt the schedule-makers anticipated a Mitchell and Reed-led team would challenge the Musketeers and Flyers for a piece of the conference elite. The late season games should be a valuable experience for the freshmen and sophomore-heavy team. Something they can build on for next season. Worst case, the Bills drop both and draw the #11 seed for the A-10 Conference Tournament. They will most likely travel to Dayton or Duquesne for a first-round tournament game.

12. Charlotte (10-18, 2-12)

Last Week: 2/23 @George Washington 57-74, 2/26 vs. Richmond 59-72

Next Week: 3/2 @Xavier, 3/5 vs. Saint Joseph’s

Another 0-2 week has extended coach Alan Major‘s losing streak to six. Prospects to break the run at six are slim as Charlotte takes to the road for a game with Xavier Wednesday. Prospects are a bit better on Saturday, as the 49ers host Saint Joseph’s. The last ticket to the first round of conference tournament play is on the line.

13. Saint Josephs (8-20, 3-11)

Last Week: 2/23 @Massachusetts 51-69, 2/26 vs. St. Bonaventure 79-65

Next Week: 3/2 vs. Richmond, 3/5 @Charlotte

The Hawks logged their second consecutive 20 loss season during the course of a 1-1 week. Langston Galloway earned his fourth Rookie of the Week citation (shared with Saint Louis forward Dwayne Evans). Looking ahead, beating Richmond, improbable (about a 20% probability per Ken Pomeroy), would nevertheless assure the Hawks of a first round game in the A-10 Tournament. Should they lose, their road game with Charlotte will decide who gets the last ticket to the A-10′s first round, and one last game for the season.

14. Fordham (6-20, 0-14)

Last Week: 2/23 @St. Bonaventure 63-82, 2/26 vs. Rhode Island 58-90

Next Week: 3/2 @La Salle, 3/5 vs. Massachusetts

Fordham’s winless string runs to 14 in conference play, with an 0-2 week. The probabilities (per Ken Pomeroy) have climbed to an ominous 59.9%. The Rams are staring at a two season winless run in conference.

A Look Ahead

No conference titles on the line this week, and in retrospect, it seems the schedule-makers in September overestimated Saint Louis and Dayton, while underestimating Rhode Island. Places #1 and #14, however, are the only two that are absolutely settled going into the last week of conference play. Virtually every other place will be settled by play either Wednesday or Saturday. The season will end Saturday for those teams finishing #13 and #14. At the bottom of the conference Saint Joseph’s and Charlotte will most likely settle who gets the last berth in the first round in Halton Arena, Charlotte Saturday.

The last A-10 Conference Tournament bye seed (#4) is still in play, with Rhode Island and Duquesne the primary candidates. Both will play St. Bonaventure this last week of the season, so the Bonnies, who have no hope of finishing higher than #7, can play the spoiler. Of particular interest is the Wednesday game between Duquesne and St. Bonaventure, to be played in Pittsburgh. The Bonnies beat the Dukes in Olean early last month, the loss that started the Dukes’ fall from grace. Places #5 through #10 will also be settled on the court this week, with Dayton, George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Massachusetts, along with Duquesne and Rhode Island all having a stake in the outcome. St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island and George Washington have games with two teams ranked in that group, several with each other (Rhode Island-St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island-GWU). Of interest is Dayton’s Saturday game with George Washington, as the winner will hold the tie-breaker over the other in the event Rhode Island loses to George Washington.

Share this story

Checking in on… the Atlantic 10

Posted by Brian Goodman on February 23rd, 2011

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Looking Back

Net efficiencies through Monday of this week (2/21/2011) continue to show Duquesne ranked #2 in the conference. Though Duquesne dropped to fourth place in the conference standings after their loss to Xavier the Sunday before last, The Dukes lost a third conference game, this time to Dayton, last weekend. While they have dominated enough games to maintain their spot just below Xavier, but the gap between Duquesne and Xavier widens as the Dukes fall back towards Temple and Richmond. Temple and Richmond maintained positive net efficiencies and were joined this week by a revitalized Dayton squad.

An oddity noted last week, the inbalance between teams whose net efficiencies were positive (four last week, five this week) and those whose net efficiencies are negative (10 last week, nine this week) continues. The gap between the “haves” and “have nots” has narrowed, which may not be a good thing when looking at postseason prospects. Consensus bracketology has the conference with two “solid ins” right now (Xavier and Temple), with Duquesne and Richmond “with work to do” on the bubble (Richmond appears to be in a slightly better position than Duquesne).

Power Rankings

The top team is Xavier. The Muskies settled it on the floor of the Consol Arena Sunday with a comfortable win over Durquesne. Duquesne dropped to #4 in the conference “record rankings.” Oddly the bottom spot was also settled on the court, also on Sunday and also with the host taking the loss. Saint Joseph’s will now battle with Charlotte for the last spot in the first round of the A-10 Conference Tournament. Rhode Island also had a good week, while Dayton did not. And those developments are also reflected in the conference rankings and this week’s power rankings.

1. Xavier (21-6, 12-1)

Last Week: 2/16 @Saint Joseph’s 74-54, 2/19 vs. Fordham 79-72, 2/22 La Salle 100-62

Next Week: 2/27 @Dayton

Xavier continues to roll, downing down-and-out Saint Joseph’s and Fordham, then La Salle. Coach Chris Mack‘s squad has one last bridge to cross, Dayton next Sunday, then two more “should wins” late next week. A Dayton win should seal the #1 seed in the conference tournament next month.

2. Temple (21-5, 11-2)

Last Week: 2/16 vs. Richmond 73-53, 2/19 vs. Saint Joseph’s 66-52

Next Week: 2/23 @Duke, 2/26 @George Washington

A convincing win over closest (seed) rival Richmond highlighted a 2-0 week for the Owls. Low light is the season-ending injury to junior center Michael Eric. Eric’s absence from the rotation did not create a problem for the Owls as they handled the frontcourt-challenged Spiders by 20, nor against the very inexperienced (and mercurial) Hawks. Going forward, particularly in the conference tournament and beyond, however is another story. Temple has a late non-conference game as they travel to Durham, North Carolina, to face Duke. This should be a good benchmark game for Owl fans. Going toe-to-toe with the ACC powerhouse should bode well for Temple’s NCAA prospects.

3. Duquesne (17-8, 9-3)

Last Week: 2/16 @Massachusetts 81-63, 2/19 @Dayton 63-64

Next Week: 2/23 vs. Rhode Island, 2/26 @St. Louis

The Dukes logged their third consecutive 1-1 week, which this time dropped them back to #4 in the conference standings, though they maintain their #2 spot in the conference net efficiency (see table above). Their loss to Dayton helped the Flyers, but probably damaged the Dukes’ post season NCAA prospects. Coach Ron Everhart‘s squad hosts the Runnin’ Rams on Wednesday, then take to the road a game in St. Louis this weekend. Another 1-1 week would be fatal to any NCAA hopes (short of running the table in Atlantic City).

4. Richmond (20-6, 9-2)

Last Week: 2/16 @Temple 53-73, 2/19 vs. St. Bonaventure 82-65

Next Week: 2/26 @Charlotte

Richmond lost ground to Temple in the race for the #2 seed in Atlantic City, and took out their frustrations on St. Bonaventure. Coach Chris Mooney‘s squad has light duty this week, a trip to Charlotte and a game with the 49ers on Saturday is all they have before finishing out the season with two last conference games.

5. Dayton (19-9, 7-6)

Last Week: 2/16 @Charlotte 69-51, 2/19 vs. Duquesne 64-63

Next Week: 2/27 vs. Xavier

Dayton halted their downward drift in the conference standings with a 2-0 week. Their win over Duquesne, good for conference standings, may be a case of too little too late. Should they follow it with a win over Xavier next Sunday, they will have 20 wins and might revive hopes to make the bubble. The Musketeers are the only opponent on the schedule next week, they should draw the Flyers’ full attention.

6. Rhode Island (16-10, 7-5)

Last Week: 2/19 vs. Massachusetts 60-66

Next Week: 2/23 @Duquesne, 2/26 @Fordham

Rhode Island’s loss to struggling Massachusetts is a good microcosm of the season. Good showings (a six-point loss at Pittsburgh, win over Richmond) are too often followed by letdowns (loss to Quinnipiac, loss to La Salle). Rhode Island has lost both games with conference rival Massachusetts, a team that will most likely finish play below 0.500 will not be a brightspot on the team’s post season resume. The Runnin’ Rams take to the road for two games this week. First stop is Pittsburgh (again) for a game with Duquesne, followed by a stopover in New York City and a game at Fordham. A sweep would keep them ahead of George Washington for the #5 seed in the conference tournament.

7. George Washington (14-12, 7-5)

Last Week: 2/19 @La Salle 82-80

Next Week: 2/23 vs. Charlotte, 2/26 vs. Temple

The Colonials beat fading La Salle on Saturday and host two teams this week — Charlotte on Wednesday, followed by Temple Saturday. If Coach Karl Hobbs’ squad follows form, this should be a 1-1 week. They will need at least 1-1 to keep pace with Rhode Island.

8. St. Bonaventure (14-11, 6-6)

Last Week: 2/16 vs. St. Louis 83-73, 2/20 @Richmond 65-82

Next Week: 2/23 vs. Fordham, 2/26 @Saint Joseph’s

Coach Mike Schmidt’s Bonnies beat St. Louis by 10, then dropped a 17 point decision in Richmond. Next week provides a great opportunity to collect two more wins in conference play as the Bonnies host winless Fordham on Wednesday, then travel to Philadelphia for a game with Saint Joseph’s on Saturday. A 2-0 week would seal a winning season, their first since 2001-02, for St. Bonaventure.

9. Massachusetts (14-11, 6-6)

Last Week: 2/16 vs. Duquesne 63-81, 2/19 @Rhode Island 66-60

Next Week: 2/23 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 2/27 @La Salle

The Minutemen posted a 1-1 week, dropping an 18-point decision to Duquesne, but leveling the weekly record complements of regional rival Rhode Island. Coach Derek Kellogg‘s troops looks at two “should win” games this week in the form of Saint Joseph’s and La Salle. La Salle is a road game, traditionally a problem for Massachusetts — they sport a net efficiency of -0.071 in road games this season.

10. La Salle (12-16, 4-9)

Last Week: 2/19 vs. George Washington 80-82, 2/22 @Xavier 62-100

Next Week: 2/27 vs. Massachusetts

The Explorers logged another 0-2 week, their third 0-2 week in conference play this season. The current losing streak stands at three games. There will be no closing rush to the upper division this season. Playing out the string, Dr. Giannini will no doubt review the current roster to see who he can build a team around next season. Will the Explorers’ game with UMass on Sunday be the first day of 2012 tryouts?

11. Saint Louis (10-17, 4-9)

Last Week: 2/16 @St. Bonaventure 73-83, 2/19 vs. Charlotte 61-56, 2/22 vs. Chicago State 90-52

Next Week: 2/26 vs. Duquesne

The Billikens posted a 2-1 week, starting with a loss to St. Bonaventure and followed with back-to-back wins against conference mate Charlotte and Horizon League member Chicago State. Their Saturday game with Duquesne should be an interesting contrast in styles. The Billikens are a low possession (their 63.7 average possessions per game is ranked #12 in the conference), defense-first team, while Duquesne is a high possession (70.9, #1 in conference play) three point shooting team. If Duquesne is hot from the perimeter, this could be really ugly.

12. Charlotte (10-16, 2-10)

Last Week: 2/16 vs. Dayton 51-69, 2/19 @St. Louis 56-61

Next Week: 2/23 @George Washington, 2/26 vs. Richmond

Charlotte logged a 0-2 week and extended their losing streak to four. Coach Alan Major‘s squad travels to Washington for a game with the Colonials, then returns home for a Saturday game against Richmond. This could be losing week #3, with their streak running to six.

13. Saint Joseph‘s (7-19, 1-10)

Last Week: 2/16 vs. Xavier 54-74, 2/20 @Temple 52-66

Next Week: 2/23 @Massachusetts, 2/26 vs. St. Bonaventure

The Hawks dropped two more this week, this time to conference leaders Xavier and Temple. On target for a second consecutive 20 loss season, Temple students arranged a funeral for Saint Joseph’s team mascot, the Hawk (“The Hawk will never die”). The Hawks travel to Massachusetts, a team they have beaten already this season, and they host St. Bonaventure, a middling team, thus, theoretically it may be possible to stave off their 20th loss this season for another week. Possible, but not probable.

14. Fordham (6-18, 0-12)

Last Week: 2/16 @Xavier 72-79

Next Week: 2/23 @St. Bonaventure, 2/26 vs. Rhode Island

Fordham’s winless string runs to 12 in conference play, with an 0-1 week. Losing by seven to the conference leader on their home court may count as a moral victory, but it changes nothing in the won-loss column. The probabililties that they will finish the conference season without a win dropped to 38.8%, per Ken Pomeroy, complements of their close game against Xavier. Their road game to Olean (St. Bonaventure) and hosting Rhode Island will not be the place to break their winless run.

A Look Ahad

The week offers a single headliner game, Temple at Duke on Wednesday night. Temple and Duke are both in the NCAAs, Duke looks good for a #1 seed right now, so an Owl win would definitely boost Temple’s standing within the field. Winning at Cameron however is tough. Keeping it close at Cameron is tough too, but if the Owls can give the Blue Devils a competitive game, the Selection Committee will no doubt take notice.

The Rhode Island-Duquesne game scheduled for Wednesday as well could, should Rhode Island win, put the #4 seed for next month’s conference tournament up for grabs. Duquesne is tied in the loss column with Richmond, and their game on March 5 could be the sorting out game for the #3 and #4 seeds. A loss to Rhode Island would drop the Dukes a loss behind Richmond, and leave the Spiders in control for the #3 seed. Duquesne in turn could find itself in a cat fight to hold onto the #4 seed.

Share this story

Checking in on… the Atlantic-10

Posted by Brian Goodman on February 16th, 2011

Joseph Dzuback of Villanova By The Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

A Look Back

Net Efficiencies, end of season honors: Net efficiencies through Monday of this week (2/14/2011) give us a better sense of the conference race than the won-loss standings. Though Duquesne drops to fourth place in the conference standings, the Dukes have dominated enough games to maintain their spot just below Xavier. Temple and Richmond follow, with both maintaining positive net efficiencies.

Xavier took sole ownership of first place Sunday with their win over Duquesne. The Musketeers’ conference SOS (see above) confirms their fans have no need to credit the conference schedule maker with an assist on their ascension. The Musketeers are back!

One of the developing oddities of late is the number of teams with negative net efficiencies — with a full ten teams logging negative nets through last Sunday. A 50/50 split would be unusual, but a 30/70 split is a bit unusual and a development that should rebalance over the next two weeks. The split however, does not bode well for postseason prospects. Consensus bracketology has the conference with three “solid ins” right now (Xavier, Duquesne and Temple), and Richmond “with work to do.”

With POY handouts  and All-Conference Team awards less than a month away, it is time to look at who has been on the conference radar all season. The Player of the Year will most likely come from the list below — I have noted the number of times the player has been cited as Player of the Week and the number of times the player has made the conference Honor Roll.

Someone not named Tu Holloway will have to put on a major push through the end of the month to overtake the Xavier guard for Player of the Year honors. Of the most like candidates (most are shown in the table), the most likely candidate is Justin Harper, Richmond’s talented #4 player, possibly Temple’s Lavoy Allen or Ramone Moore, or if Rhode Island has the kind of February that St. Louis had last season, maybe Delroy James finds his way into the conversation. But let’s be honest, for Rhode Island to have that kind of February, James would have to play like the Player of the Year. I believe the voters tend to look among the conference contenders for the Player of the Year contenders, which eliminates Chris Wright (Dayton), Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure), Chris Gaston (Fordham) and Aaric Murray (La Salle). All four (and James and Harper) are however, along with James, Moore, Allen, Chris Wright and Duquesne’s Bill Clark, well in the mix for All-Conference Teams. Those not named to the first team will no doubt make the second team.

Rookie of the Year honors appear to be a little tighter, with contenders coming from Saint Joseph‘s, Dayton, La Salle and George Washington. Duquesne’s T.J. McConnell (see table above) is the clear favorite right now, but how he fares with the voters may well be tied to how strongly the Dukes finish out the regular season. The voters may be less inclined to pin conference-contender responsibilities on a freshman/transfer, so Langston Galloway (Saint Joseph’s), Tyreek Duren (La Salle), Juwan Staten (Dayton) and Namanja Mikic (George Washington) should not be handicapped when compared to McConnell. There are two more rounds of weekly citations and a strong closing by Saint Joseph’s or George Washington may scramble this race.

Power Rankings

The top team is Xavier. The Muskies settled it on the floor of the Consol Arena Sunday with a comfortable win over Duquesne. Duquesne dropped to #4 in the conference “record rankings”. Oddly the bottom spot was also settled on the court, also on Sunday and also with the host taking the loss. Saint Joseph’s will now battle with Charlotte for the last spot in the first round of the A-10 Conference Tournament. Rhode Island also had a good week, while Dayton did not. And those developments are also reflected in the conference rankings and this week’s power rankings.

1. Xavier (18-6, 9-1)

Last Week: 2/8 @Georgia 65-57, 1/13 @Duquesne 71-63

Next Week: 2/16 @Saint Joseph’s, 2/19 vs. Fordham

After a start to the season that included injuries, academics and unexpected losses, the Musketeers have put them back at the top of the conference and into the NCAAs. Xavier has been gaining national notice over the last half of January, and whispers of Chris Mack for conference coach of the year seemed justified with their comfortable win over Duquesne Sunday. Tu Holloway earned an Honor Roll citation for averaging double digit scoring over the course of the two road games.

The Duquesne game was a classic first half/second half struggle. The home team took a narrow one point lead into the locker room, but Xavier, the larger and more physical team, slowed down the pace (36 possessions was where Duquesne wanted to play) to a more manageable 33 possessions, and took control of the defensive boards. Duquesne had a huge 31-23 FGA advantage in the first half, complements of some terrific offensive board work. The Musketeers shut down the defensive boards, limiting the Dukes to a skimpy 20% rebounding rate of their misses in the second half. Neither team overwhelmed the opponent with an offensive blitz, but by limiting second chance opportunities, Xavier turned the game into a series of one-and-done possessions. And that was a game where their superior conversion abilities could prevail. Coach Mack’s squad has light duty this week — games with Saint Joseph’s and Fordham. No slip-ups, guys.

2. Duquesne (16-7, 8-2)

Last Week: 2/13 vs. Xavier 63-71

Next Week: 2/16 @Massachusetts, 2/19 @Dayton

The Dukes had another 1-1 week, which this time dropped them back to #4 in the conference standings, though they maintain their #2 spot in these power rankings. Ron Everhart‘s charges have two road games this week, coming off a loss to Xavier, this could be a rougher trip than anticipated. Beware of a dangerous Dayton club.

3. Temple (19-5, 9-2)

Last Week: 2/9 vs. Fordham 77-66, 2/12 @Dayton 75-63

Next Week: 2/16 vs. Richmond, 2/19 vs. Saint Joseph’s

It was Lavoy Allen’s turn, as the injury bug took a bite out of the senior forward, forcing him to the bench for Saturday’s game versus Dayton. Ramone Moore stepped up and earned his sixth Honor Roll citation last week as he averaged 24.0 points and 5.0 rebounds over the week. Moore snagged nine rebounds in the Owls’ win over Dayton. Temple has a showdown with Richmond scheduled for Thursday night. The winner should draw at least the #3 seed for the conference tournament in Atlantic City next month.

4. Richmond (20-6, 9-2)

Last Week: 2/9 @George Washington 69-65, 2/12 vs. Saint Louis 64-52

Next Week: 2/16 @Temple, 2/19 vs. St. Bonaventure

The Spiders put some distance between the elites and the middle teams as they posted another 2-0 week complements from two middle-of-the-conference teams. Justin Harper earned his second Player of the Week citation for as he averaged 21.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in Richmond’s two games last week. Coach Chris Mooney and Company take a trip up to Philadelphia for a mini-showdown on Wednesday, then returns home to host the Bonnies on Saturday.

5. Rhode Island (16-9, 7-4)

Last Week: 2/9 vs. Dayton 67-53, 2/12 vs. Charlotte 71-70 OT

Next Week: 2/19 vs. Massachusetts

Rhode Island demolished a struggling Dayton team Wednesday to take over fifth place in the conference standings, and hung on to beat Charlotte on Saturday in overtime. Too little too late? Perhaps for the NCAAs, a number of solid conference wins will not make the Selection Committee forget losses to Quinnipiac and a route at the hands of Florida. Finish solidly and another round in the NITs awaits. Will that be enough for coach Jim Baron? The Runnin’ Rams face regional rival (and conference mate) Massachusetts Saturday in one of their three conference mirror games.

6. Dayton (17-9, 5-6)

Last Week: 2/9 @Rhode Island 53-67, 2/12 vs. Temple 63-75

Next Week: 2/16 @Charlotte, 2/19 vs. Duquesne

Final Judgement Week did not go well for the Flyers, as they went 0-2 against teams they really needed to beat to make any case for the post season. Rhode Island has a two game cushion in the loss column now, and Temple has another important win to stay within striking distance of Xavier. Dayton continues to drift downward in the conference standings. Dayton will play Charlotte in Charlotte Wednesday, then return to host Duquesne on Saturday.

7. George Washington (13-12, 6-5)

Last Week: 2/9 vs. Richmond 65-69, 2/13 @Massachusetts 59-51

Next Week: 2/19 @La Salle

The Colonials logged another 1-1 week, but gained an advantage over Massachusetts by winning their head-to-head. Freshman Namanja Mikic earned his second Honor Roll citation (to go with his Rookie of the Week citation) as he averaged 17.5 points for the week’s games. Karl Hobbs‘ team travels to Philadelphia to play La Salle Saturday in their only game this week.

8. St. Bonaventure (13-10, 5-5)

Last Week: 2/12 vs. La Salle 82-61

Next Week: 2/16 vs. St. Louis, 2/20 @Richmond

Coach Mike Schmidt’s Bonnies hammered a struggling La Salle squad by 21 points, earning Andrew Nicholson his ninth Honor Roll citation this season. The Bonnies host St. Louis Wednesday and travel to Richmond for a tilt with the Spiders Sunday.

9. Massachusetts (13-10, 5-5)

Last Week: 2/13 vs. George Washington 51-59

Next Week: 2/16 vs. Duquesne, 2/19 @Rhode Island

The Minutemen ran their losing streak to three last week with a loss to George Washington Sunday. Derek Kellogg‘s squad looks at two more tough opponents this week as the Minutemen host a two game home stand by hosting the Colonials next Sunday, then the Dukes the following Wednesday.

10.  La Salle (12-14, 4-7)

Last Week: 2/9 @Saint Louis 78-77, 2/12 @St. Bonaventure 61-82

Next Week: 2/19 vs. George Washington

The Explorers won their mini-series with St. Louis, pushing the Billikens another game down in the conference standings, but they have a two game gap to jump if they want to finish in the middle of the conference. Dr. John Giannini‘s squad has earned 16 citations for individual performances from the conference this season, one less than conference-leaders Duquesne and Dayton, two teams ensconced in the conference’s upper division. When working through this season, the La Salle staff and administration is going to have to reconcile the paradox of recognizable individual performances and mediocre team outcomes. La Salle has a single weekend game, as they host George Washington on Saturday. If the Explorers plan to mount a closing rush for an upper division finish this season, they have to start with George Washington.

11. Saint Louis (8-16, 3-8)

Last Week: 2/9 vs. La Salle 77-78, 2/12 @Richmond 52-64

Next Week: 2/16 @St. Bonaventure, 2/19 vs. Charlotte

The Billikens posted an 0-2 week, and run their losing streak to three. The Richmond game raised no eyebrows, but giving up a layup to Ruben Guillandeaux with 19 seconds left (and a one point lead) will hurt for awhile. Freshman Dwayne Evans earned his second Honor Roll citation of the season as he averaged 15.5 points and 11.5 rebounds last week. Coach Rick Majerus‘ squad heads out to Olean, New York to play St. Bonaventure Wednesday, then returns to Chaifetz Arena to host Charlotte in a Saturday game.

12.     Charlotte (10-13, 2-7)

Last Week: 2/12 @Rhode Island 70-71 OT

Next Week: 2/16 vs. Dayton, 2/19 @St. Louis

Charlotte logged a 0-1 week and extended their losing streak with Satuday’s result in Rhode Island. Chris Braswell did draw a conference citation for logging his fifth double-double (15 points, 11 rebounds) in the loss. Charlotte hosts Dayton Wednesday and travels to St. Louis for a weekend game with the Billikens.

13. Saint Joseph‘s (6-17, 1-8)

Last Week: 2/13 @Fordham 76-70

Next Week: 2/16 vs. Xavier, 2/20 @Temple

The Hawks played a single game last week, but it was a good one as Saint Joseph’s stormed back from a 12 point halftime deficit to notch the program’s 1,500th all-time win, a six point classic, against Fordham last Sunday that also earned Langston Galloway his third Rookie of the Week citation for his career-high 25 point performance against Fordham. Saint Joseph’s’ two-game winning streak has been fun, but the Hawks are back in the meat grinder this week as they host Xavier on Wednesday and then travel across town to play Temple on Sunday.

14. Fordham (6-17, 0-11)

Last Week: 2/9 @Temple 66-77, 2/13 vs. Saint Joseph’s 70-76

Next Week: 2/16 @Xavier

Fordham’s winless string runs to 11 in conference play, with another 0-2 week. The probability they will finish the conference season without a win stand ominously at 44.7% per Ken Pomeroy. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage suggests the Rams will earn a win, but the calculations for individual games shows a “losing” probability for each game. Best chance remains a travel-challenged Massachusetts squad at the end of the season. Fordham travels to Cincinnati to take on Xavier.

A Look Ahead

The week offers a single headliner game, Richmond at Temple on Thursday night. Crucial to settling the question of the #2 and #3 seeds in Atlantic City. A Temple win would assure the Owls of no worse than a #3 seed, with distinct possibilities of a #2 seed should Duquesne falter. A Richmond win will leave the question to be settled on the court in a season-ending clash with Duquesne on March 3. Rebounding has become Richmond’s burden to bear this season. The lack of presence on the glass means their shots have to fall consistently for them to have a chance. So far they have as the Spiders convert at a 54% (eFG%) rate in conference play. They do not however rebound defensively either. And that can be a real problem given Temple’s board domination. This one should go to the Owls, though Temple fans should be warned that Richmond has the strongest road-only efficiency in the conference.

The Rhode Island-Massachusetts game scheduled for Saturday can help the Runnin’ Rams for NIT consideration should Coach Baron’s charges win. With five conference games remaining in the regular season, Rhode Island can solidify a #5 seed in the tournament should they continue to win.

Share this story

Checking in on… the Atlantic 10

Posted by Brian Goodman on February 9th, 2011

Joe Dzuback of Villanova By The Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

A Look Back

Won-loss Records vs. Net Efficiency: Net efficiencies through Monday of this week (2/7/2011) give us a better sense of the conference race than the won-loss standings. With the front-runners (Xavier and Duquesne) taking losses last week, the race appears to have tightened up with just over three weeks (and 43.8% of the slate) left to play. As the table below illustrates, two teams, Duquesne and Xavier, are tied for the lead with two others, Temple and Richmond, tied for third a single game behind the leaders. Four more teams, Dayton, George Washington, Massachusetts and Rhode Island are tied for fourth just two games out of third place and four games out of first, all with seven games left to play.

The won-loss standings are deceptive however, as the table below reveals. The positive-negative split is five and nine, well off of the seven team split one would expect, and definitely at odds with the eight-five above-below 0.500 split based on conference records. The efficiency split suggests the top four teams at least are far better than their nine “net negative” conference mates. Dayton, unlike last season when the Flyers sported a net efficiency that was clearly at odds with their conference won-loss record, find those two numbers in closer alignment. The three teams they “share” fifth place with however, all show negative efficiency nets, suggesting their won-loss records may be a bit misleading. All three are clustered fairly closely, with Rhode Island bringing up the rear in the group. The conference SOS shows all three have had schedules that fall around the mid-point for difficulty (note even Saint Louis clusters into that SOS grouping), so the schedules to date are not especially helpful for projecting through the end of the season.

Who in that cluster (Dayton, Saint Louis, Massachusetts, George Washington and Rhode Island) has the tougher road home? Looking over the next five weeks, Saint Louis and Dayton both have three more games versus the top four teams. For the Billikens, that slate includes a trip to Richmond and two home games versus Duquesne and Xavier. The Flyers also face three of those teams — Temple, Duquesne and Xavier — but do not leave Dayton in the process, possibly a slight advantage over Saint Louis. The Flyers also have a chance to clear some space at fifth place as they also play Rhode Island and George Washington during that run. The season-ending run suggest the Billikens should not anticipate a repeat of last February’s run. Rhode Island may have the easiest run, as the Rams have a single top four game left, at Duquesne, and head-to-head games with the other three fifth place teams.

Power Rankings

The top teams logged a loss apiece, and while they stayed on pace with each other, they did drift one back closer to the trailing teams. This is coming down to a four-team race and assuming no more slip-ups by those four, the head-to-head games will decide the seeds for the conference tournament, and most likely who will earn at-large bids to the NCAAs.

1. Duquesne (16-6, 8-1)

Last Week: 2/2 vs. George Washington 84-59, 2/5 @St. Bonaventure 62-64

Next Week: 2/13 vs. Xavier

The Dukes’ winning streak snapped at 11 in Olean, NY on the fifth, as Duquesne lost by two, 62-64 to St. Bonaventure. B.J. Monteiro picked up his first Honor Roll mention for his 18.0 point average on the week. Coach Ron Everhart‘s squad goes home to prepare for their shootout with Xavier on Sunday. Pomeroy favors the Dukes by eight right now, which is about four more points than he gives to the home team.

2. Xavier (17-6, 8-1)

Last Week: 2/2 @Charlotte 62-66, 2/5 vs. Saint Louis 76-68

Next Week: 2/8 @Georgia 65-57, 1/13 @Duquesne

The Musketeers stumbled first, dropping a “What the heck?!” game to the 49ers in Charlotte, the kind of game more common in the first two months of the season than in the last five weeks. A bounce back win over Saint Louis Saturday leveled the week at 1-1, as Mark Lyons drew an Honor Roll nod from the conference for his career-high 25 point performance at Charlotte, 20.0 point average for the week and 52% shot accuracy. Chris Mack and his crew take to the road this week, stopping first in Athens, Georgia for a late season out of conference game with the Georgia Bull Dogs. What, at the beginning of the season appeared to be a late season distraction, may prove to be RPI gold for the X-Men. Georgia ranks #39 in the RPI and should Xavier win (Pomeroy shows them as four point underdogs right now), they would have a Top 50 road win for their post season resume –  the X-Men won this game, by eight, 65-57. The weekend road stop brings the Musketeers to Pittsburgh for a showdown with conference co-leader Duquesne on Saturday.

3. Richmond (18-6, 7-2)

Last Week: 2/2 vs. Saint Joseph’s 62-52, 2/5 @Fordham 77-60

Next Week: 2/9 @George Washington, 2/12 vs. Saint Louis

The Spiders beat up the conference underdogs — Saint Joseph’s and Fordham, rather handily, taking each game by double digit points. Senior big man Dan Geriot earned his first conference Honor Roll mention as he averaged 15.0 points and 4.0 rebounds in last week’s games. Chris Mooney‘s squad takes a trip up to Washington DC for a game with the Colonials on Wednesday, then return home to host the staggering Billikens on Saturday.

4. Temple (17-5, 7-2)

Last Week: 2/2 @La Salle 71-67, 2/5 vs. Rhode Island 81-67

Next Week: 2/9 vs. Fordham, 2/12 @Dayton

Juan Fernandez returned to the lineup just in time as Temple posted another 2-0 last week and kept pace with Richmond (which had a much easier draw last week) for third place in the conference standings. Junior forward Scootie Randall drew his first Player of the Week citation (only the second all season for a Temple player) for his 20.5 point average over the two games. Randall hit his first eight shots in the Rhode Island game on his way to a game-high 25 points. The back court quartet of Randall, Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt and T.J. DiLeo (plus the returned Fernandez) continues to power the Owls, combining for 48 of the Owls’ 71 points versus La Salle and 54 of the Owls’ 80 points versus Rhode Island. The Owls host Fordham Wednesday, then travel to Dayton for a showdown game on Saturday. Pomeroy projects both as wins, which will be necessary if Temple’s showdown with Richmond on 2/17 is to be a true throw down for the #3 seed (or better) in Atlantic City.

5. Dayton (17-7, 5-4)

Last Week: 2/2 vs. St. Bonaventure 63-61, 2/5 @La Salle 85-81

Next Week: 2/9 @Rhode Island, 2/12 vs. Temple

The Flyers bounced back with a 2-0 week, their first in conference play this season. Senior forward Chris Wright earned his eighth citation from the conference (one Player of the Week & seven Honor Rolls), his second consecutive Honor Roll mention, for averaging 19.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game in Dayton’s two wins.

If January 23 – January 30 was Dayton’s “Statement Week”, then February 6 – February 12 should be “Statement Week II (Final Judgment?)” as the Flyers travel to Kingston, RI to throw Rhode Island out of their extended tie for fifth place, then return home to host Temple on Saturday. The Owls, tied with Richmond for third place and a strong favorite to make the NCAAs, has a two loss advantage over Dayton in conference standings. A 2-0 week would not vault Dayton into conference leadership, but it would really scramble the conference standings in the last month of the season, and provide coach Brian Gregory‘s squad with a good resume win for the Selection Committee.

6. Rhode Island (14-9, 5-4)

Last Week: 2/2 vs. Fordham 72-52, 2/5 @Temple 80-67

Next Week: 2/9 vs. Dayton, 2/12 vs. Charlotte

Rhode Island demolished struggling Fordham team Wednesday, but then dropped their road game against Temple (not shocking, but…) to post a 1-1 week. Senior forward Delroy James earned his ninth Honor Roll citation (third consecutive) from the conference as he averaged 22.0 points, 6.5 for the Rams last week.

A Wednesday shootout with Dayton for fifth place, then a Saturday game versus struggling Charlotte constitutes next week’s slate. With post season options, short of a run through the conference tournament, limited to three lettered tournaments, the Runnin’ Rams have nine losses with seven more conference games to play, which leaves no more room for slip ups. Chances they will run the table going into Atlantic are slim, especially with Duquesne coming up in two weeks. Shooting deficiencies have hobbled Coach Baron’s team, and Delroy James, practically a lock for All Conference honors (First team most likely) cannot carry the team, despite what the succession of Honor Roll citations would have one believe. Some combination from among Nikola Malesevic, Orion Outerbridge, Marquis Jones and Akeem Richmond has to take the pressure off James offensively. Malesevic or Outerbridge has to touch the ball more, while Jones and Richmond have to be more accurate with the shots they take.

7. Massachusetts (13-9, 5-4)

Last Week: 2/2 @Saint Louis 53-69, 2/5 @Saint Joseph’s 64-67

Next Week: 2/13 vs. George Washington

The Minutemen had an 0-2 week, dropping games to the Billikens and to the previously winless (in conference play) Hawks. After standing with a 5-2 record ready to take a big leap into the thick of the conference race, the week knocked the Minutemen back into the jumble of teams grasping and clawing for a chance at one of the bye seeds. Derek Kellogg and the Minutemen open a two-game home stand by hosting the Colonials next Sunday, then the Dukes the following Wednesday.

8. George Washington (12-11, 5-4)

Last Week: 2/2 @Duquesne 59-84, 2/5 @Charlotte 73-67

Next Week: 2/9 vs. Richmond, 2/13 @Massachusetts

The Colonials logged another 1-1 week, getting blasted by 25 points at the hands of Duquesne, then took a road game in Charlotte over the weekend. They continue to stay just north of 0.500 in conference play even as junior Tony Taylor was cited for his second consecutive Honor Roll mention (sixth of the season) for averaging 23.0 points and 6.0 assists in last weeks’ road games. Coach Karl Hobbs takes his charges home for a battle against the third place Spiders of Richmond Wednesday night, the travel to Amherst to play the Minutemen in a battle for fifth place, on Saturday..

9. St. Bonaventure (12-10, 4-5)

Last Week: 2/2 @Dayton 61-63, 2/5 vs. Duquesne 64-62

Next Week: 12/12 vs. La Salle

Coach Mike Schmidt’s Bonnies finished a 1-1 week on a pair of two point games, a loss 61-63 at Dayton, and a win 64-62 versus Duquesne. Junior center Andrew Nicholson earned his seventh Honor Roll nod as he recorded his eighth double-double (25 points, 11 rebounds) of the season in the Fordham game. The Bonnies travel to Dayton for a Wednesday game with the Flyers, then return home to host Duquesne, on Saturday. A 1-1 week would be a morale boost for the squad.

10. La Salle (11-13, 3-6)

Last Week: 2/2 vs. Temple 67-71, 2/5 vs. Dayton 81-85

Next Week: 2/9 @Saint Louis, 12/12 @St. Bonaventure

If the past week was indeed La Salle’s “Statement Week”, the words are “Not this year”, as the Explorers stumbled through an 0-2 week, dropping home games to Temple and Dayton. Starting center Aaric Murray was benched seven and half minutes into the game, and did not appear again in the half. “We subbed him when we were down by a whole bunch (9-21), and the guys who came in gave great effort…I was extremely pleased with the guys who were in the game…” Dr. John Giannini explained. The Explorers in the game did battle back and took a three point lead, 38-35, into the intermission. Devon White started the second half as Murray remained benched. A few minutes into the half the sophomore asked to go back in and, with Dayton up 46-40 about six minutes into the second half, Giannini obliged. Murray logged another 3:29 and, with the Dayton lead out to 17, 59-42, Giannini pulled him for the second and last time. “…they (Dayton) went up big on us again, and I went back with that team that made the run in the first half — and they made another run…”. The Explorers trimmed their deficit to two in the last 0:09, but a last possession foul put the visitors on the line one last time, accounting for the winning margin. La Salle has two road games coming up, Saint Louis on Wednesday and St. Bonaventure on Saturday. At this point the assumption is that Murray will play.

11. Saint Louis (8-14, 3-6)

Last Week: 2/2 vs. Massachusetts 69-63, 2/5 @Xavier 68-76

Next Week: 2/9 vs. La Salle, 2/12 @Richmond

The Billikens posted a 1-1 week, beating middle-of-the-conference Massachusetts by six, then dropping an eight point decision at Xavier. Freshman Rob Loe earned his first Honor Roll mention because he averaged 14.0 points (while leading the team) for the two games. He went 5-5 at Xavier, including 4-4 from beyond the arc. Coach Rick Majerus‘ squad hosts La Salle Wednesday, then travels to Richmond for a Saturday game.

12. Charlotte (10-13, 2-7)

Last Week: 2/2 vs. Xavier 66-62, 2/5 vs. George Washington 67-73

Next Week: 2/12 @Rhode Island,

Charlotte snapped their four game skid complements of Xavier. Senior guard Derrio Green earned his fifth Honor Roll citation because he led the 49ers last week, but more noteworthy, he was a perfect 10-10 from the line in Charlotte’s win over Xavier. Charlotte closed their three game home stand with a 1-2 note, losing to GWU by six. Charlotte goes back into action with a trip to Rhode Island for a Saturday game with the Runnin’ Rams.

13. Saint Joseph’s (6-17, 1-8)

Last Week: 2/2 @Richmond 52-62, 2/5 vs. Massachusetts 67-64

Next Week: 2/13 @Fordham

The Hawks’ will not register an O’fer conference season, complements of the Minutemen. Freshman Langston Galloway earned his second Rookie of the Week nod from the conference. The guard posted his best numbers of the season, 25 points, in the Massachusetts game. Galloway hit 6-6 from three point land. He scored 11 points in the Hawks’ loss at Richmond. Saint Joseph’s will travel to the Meadowlands of New Jersey for a Saturday game versus Fordham, the last winless team in the conference.

14. Fordham (6-15, 0-9)

Last Week: 2/2 @Rhode Island 52-72, 2/5 vs. Richmond 60-77

Next Week: 2/9 @Temple, 2/13 vs. Saint Joseph’s

Fordham’s winless string runs to nine in conference play, with another 0-2 week. The probabilities that they will finish the conference season without a win stand at 35.6% per Ken Pomeroy. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage suggests the Rams will earn a win in some game before the end of conference play, but the calculations for individual games shows a “losing” probability for each game. Fordham travels to Philadelphia to close out their home-away series with Temple, then back home to host Saint Joseph’s on Saturday in a game that represents their best chance to log their first conference win in two seasons.

A Look Ahead

The week offers two headliner games this week, with the conference’s two heavy weights, Xavier and Duquesne, facing off in Pittsburgh. The game will pit the conference’s best defense (Duquesne) against the conference’s strongest offense (Xavier). Duquesne will match their third-best offense against Xavier’s fifth-best defense. Shot making will be the key, as each squad’s shot defense is among the conference’s best. Duquesne relies on turnovers to augment their strong shot defense (and mask weak defensive rebounding), but the Musketeers do not turn the ball over and shoot the ball very well (#1 eFG% in conference play), so expect a strength-on-strength matchup. On the other side of the court, the teams have similar strength-on-strength matchups. The Dukes have to shoot well and rebound their misses, two defensive strengths for the Musketeers who lead the conference in defensive rebounding. If the Dukes can force Musketeer turnovers and chill the visitor’s shooters, they may parlay their strengths into a win, but should Musketeers dominate the defensive boards and shut down the Duquesne shooters, they should come out the winner.

The Dayton-Rhode Island game on Wednesday also promises to sort out the teams just below the “bye” rankings. Dayton has been maddeningly inconsistent on the road this and last season. For Rhode Island it comes down to shooting (eFG%). If the Rams hit their shots, they win. If their opponents make their shots, the Rams lose. Rhodi’s offensive efficiency and shot conversion efficiency in conference games so far has been well below their overall efficiency numbers. They have struggled to find a second and third option behind James. For Dayton, efficient shot conversion is extremely important, but the Flyers also look to offensive rebounding (and second chance points) when they are cold. Rhode Island is an average rebounding team (defensively), so the boards, should become a key to this outcome. The Flyers have a terrible habit of going down early in road games and relying on half time adjustments and second half rallies to turn the tide.

Share this story