Morning Five: 07.21.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on July 21st, 2015

  1. Last night, Harry Giles, the top recruit in the class of 2016, announced his five finalists: Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Wake Forest. Giles, a 6’10” forward from Winston Salem, has been reported to be interested in playing alongside Jayson Tatum, a top five recruit in the class of 2016 and Giles’ roommate while they played for Team US in the U19 FIBA World Championships. Given that Tatum committed to Duke earlier this month it would seem that the Blue Devils would be favorites for Giles although the hometown pull of Winston Salem and the fact that Chris Paul is the sponsor of his AAU team (and probably in Giles’ ear a lot) could sway him to go to Wake. Giles has not set a date for when he will make his choice, but if you want to learn more about him be sure to check out Luke Winn’s profile on Giles.
  2. Yesterday, the NCAA announced some tweaks to its NCAA Tournament selection process that address the play-in games (yes, that’s what they are) and how the highest seeded teams are placed in the bracket. The play-in game change is a really just a revision in the language that gives the Selection Committee the autonomy to select whichever teams it sees fit to be placed in the play-in games. As you may remember this past March, UCLA’s inclusion in the main field without having to even win a play-in game generated quite a bit of controversy given their unimpressive resume. UCLA avoided the play-in games as they were not technically one of the last four teams in. If that happens again this year, the NCAA can point to this clause as a reason to put a team like that in the play-in games. The other change allows the Selection Committee greater freedom in balancing its top two seed lines. Now instead of focusing on geography when placing these teams they can focus on competitive balance. An example of this was the near-meltdown last year on Twitter when Wisconsin and Kentucky were almost placed in the same (Midwest) region. While they won’t go to the S-curve that Joe Lunardi loves to talk about, they will try to make the top two seed lines more evenly balanced.
  3. The NCAA also announced yesterday that it will be distributing an additional $18.9 million to its member schools to help offset the schools expenses for cost-of-attendance, additional food, and various other expenses. The money will be distributed evenly to every Division 1 school so it works out to around $55,000 per school. While that might seem like a small amount (and it probably is to the big-name programs), it is actually a fairly large sum of money to schools that operate on more modest budgets. This $18.9 million will be in addition to the more than $500 million the NCAA already distributes to the schools and conferences. Having said that, we’re sure that Mark Emmert and the rest of the NCAA big shots in Indianapolis will still manage to get by.
  4. As much as we hate what some lawyers do, we have to admit that occasionally be of some use. Such is the case of Austin Nichols, who announced that he was transferring from Memphis at the beginning of the month. While the announcement was not that unusual given the mass exodus out of the program, the timing irritated many within the Memphis program as well as few writers who voiced their displeasure with his timing. So when Memphis announced that they would not be granting Nichols a release to any AAC schools, Tennessee, Virginia, Iowa, and Providence most people assumed it would be a drawn-out battle between the two sides particularly since Virginia is widely considered the favorite to land Nichols–they had been one of his favorites before he went to Memphis and there are reports that billionaire Paul Tudor Jones II may be steering him there. Instead of waiting for Memphis to give in to public pressure, the Nichols’ family hired a high-priced attorney who cited the Sherman Antitrust Act while questioning the legality of the transfer restrictions. If you thought the Ed O’Bannon case was bad for the NCAA, you can imagine what an antitrust case would have looked like. As you can imagine, Memphis quickly “reviewed” the case and removed any transfer restrictions.
  5. If you want to know why conferences (and in some cases schools) are so eager to get their own TV networks, we would refer you to the report that the Big Ten distributed $1 million to each of its schools for the 2014-15 fiscal year from the revenue it generated from the Big Ten Network. While the BTN has been profitable since the 2011-12 fiscal year, the conference had been holding back that money to deal with conference realignment. The $1 million per school may fall short of what some other conferences have been able to generate, but when it makes up approximately 3% of the money a school receives from the one of the most prominent conferences in America it is far from an insignificant amount.
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Morning Five: 07.08.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on July 8th, 2015

morning5
It has been quite a while since we did our regular Morning 5s for a variety of reason (work, life, etc), but we’re back now and will be doing these more regularly. We won’t be posting these daily until the start of the season at earliest, but we will probably be posting once or twice weekly depending on how much news is out there. We won’t be going over all the news that happened since the last time we did one of these because that would be a 10,000-word post and that is only if we kept it brief.

  1. Lost in the hysteria around the Women’s World Cup title was the fact that the US also won another significant world title on Sunday: the FIBA Under-19 championship. While their win over Croatia wasn’t the prettiest thing you will ever see, it was nice to see some of our top prospects play together against high-level competition. There are a ton of places we could point you recap the action and highlight the guys you should be keeping an eye on, but we will just direct you to a pair of excellent columns from Luke Winn and Jon Givony. Winn’s column is a sweeping overview of Team USA with particular attention to Jalen Brunson (going to Villanova) and Harry Giles (a rising high school senior who is the projected #1 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft). Givony is still putting together his review posts, but his look at the top five point guards is informative and helps you look outside of Team USA, which is important because many of these international players will end up playing college basketball. We expect that Givony will review the other positions in the coming days so watch out for those.
  2. Having a top-tier player decide to transfer is not shocking in the current era, but when that player announces his intent on July 7–like Austin Nichols did yesterday–it certainly catches your attention. The rising junior forward, who averaged 13.3 points and 6.1 rebounds per game last year, informed Josh Pastner of his decision last week, but did not publicly reveal his decision until yesterday afternoon when he announced his intendt to transfer from Memphis. Pastner, who says he was caught off-guard by the decision, has stated he will not release Nichols for his transfer. While most people will be quick to criticize Pastner and his staff for not granting Nichols a release, the timing of this announcement is at just about the worst possible time for Memphis since every high-level recruit and transfer for the upcoming season has already committed to play elsewhere. In the end, we suspect that Nichols will get his release, but that may depend on what we find out about why Nichols decided to transfer in early July. As for Pastner, Nichols will be the seventh player to transfer from the program since last year. Given how underwhelming the program has been during his time there, we are not sure how much longer he will last in Memphis.
  3. Coming into this season, Eron Harris was expected to play a big part in Michigan State‘s attempt to make another run to the Final Four, but that may be in jeopardy as the junior transfer was arrested early on July 1 for driving while intoxicated leading Tom Izzo to suspend him indefinitely. Harris, who averaged 17.2 points per game as a sophomore at West Virginia in the 2013-14 season, sat out last season as one of the few transfers in the country who did not qualify for a transfer waiver. Harris will be arraigned on July 17 and faxes a maximum of 93 days in jail and a $500 fine. Given what we have seen in these case we doubt that Harris will spend any time in jail. At most he might get a suspended sentence or do some community service and then it will be up to Izzo to decide how much time Harris will have to miss.
  4. We will admit that we don’t pay that much attention to high school prospects until they are seniors and even then it is mostly around the time that high school All-American teams are announced that we start to recognize names. So when we saw posts on Twitter about how Florida State had landed a 5-star recruit, we initially assumed it was for football because even with their surprising incoming freshmen class the Seminoles have never been considered a threat for top basketball recruits. That was not the case with 6’9″ forward Jonathan Isaac, who climbed up the rankings rapidly in 2015, as the rising senior announced that he was committing to FSU. The decision took some by surprise particularly since Isaac had previously stated he was considering 12 schools including Kentucky and LSU (we know it seems weird to mention them, but with their incoming class they deserve it). In the end, it appears that FSU’s early pursuit of Issac–they had been recruiting him for two years even when he was less highly touted–paid off. Of course, there is still quite a bit of time before Isaac would start playing in Tallahassee so we wouldn’t write this one in pen just yet.
  5. The NCAA released its annual attendance report earlier this week and while the figures aren’t exactly shocking they are worth looking at for some interesting trends. You can read plenty of articles or tweets about how you can play with the numbers in the NCAA report, but attendance was basically steady (up or down a little bit depending on how you calculate it). Syracuse repeated as the leaders in home attendance narrowly edging Kentucky for the second year in a row in that category after Kentucky had finished first 17 of the previous 18 years. While that is particularly impressive for Syracuse with a mediocre team that self-imposed a NCAA Tournament ban, it is worth noting that the Carrier Dome has the capacity for more than 10,000 more fans than Rupp Arena can seat and if they built 10,000 more seats in Rupp they would have been filled for Kentucky this past season. Although Kentucky was not able to overcome its seating disadvantage in that category, Big Blue Nation came through giving the Wildcats a decisive edge in overall attendance (home and away). It is worth noting that Duke would have been much closer to Kentucky in that category (Wisconsin came in second) if they did not have their own home seating disadvantage with almost 13,000 fewer seats for home games. Duke will just have to comfort itself with taking home the national title.
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Morning Five: 03.24.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 24th, 2015

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  1. We aren’t going to go over what happened last weekend because frankly you probably were sitting on the couch watching the entire thing. So that brings us to the Regionals which have plenty of intriguing story lines. In the East, we have a ridiculously wide-open field where we wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the four teams advance to Indianapolis (ok, maybe North Carolina State would be surprising). In the South, it is pretty much all chalk except for UCLA and since they don’t have an overseeded team or a Cinderella next so we don’t expect they will be around much longer. The Midwest is basically Kentucky and a bunch of other teams that pretty much everybody expects to be pushovers although we think the Elite 8 game could be interesting. To us, the West is by far the most interesting region especially with a potential WisconsinArizona match-up in the Elite 8, which could be a match-up of the second and third best teams in the country right now.
  2. Mississippi State will introduce Ben Howland as its next coach at a press conference tomorrow. The timing of introducing Howland as its new coach so soon after Rick Ray was fired makes it seem like this was either in place or essentially a done deal before Ray was fired. Landing Howland is huge for a program that frankly is a mediocre Power 5 program and that might be generous. There will be plenty of questions as to why Howland took the position so early in the coaching carousel when he presumably could have gotten a better position, but we would guess that it was because he was left without a spot last off-season.
  3. According to Gary Parrish, Alabama is set to offer Gregg Marshall over $3 million per year to try to lure him away from Wichita State. We are assuming that Alabama is at least waiting until after the Shockers are eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, but as we have seen in other cases that is not necessarily always true. Marshall was making $1.75 million a year at Wichita State according to the most recent reports we have heard so he would be making at least $1 million per year more not accounting for bonuses for performance and all the other ridiculous clauses they have in contracts to get more money (radio show, etc). With Bruce Pearl at Auburn, there is some pressure on the Alabama administration to improve their basketball program although we all know the fans of those programs judge success almost entirely by what their football team does. We will be interested to see if Marshall jumps at the chance to get more money and move to a Power 5 conference or if he stays at Wichita State with the possibility of even better positions (like Texas or Indiana) opening up in the coming weeks.
  4. President Obama has been more involved in college basketball (and sports in general) than most previous Presidents, but he has been especially involved recently with his call for student-athletes to receive guaranteed scholarships, but not financial compensation in an interview with The Huffington Post. While none of this is new–the Power 5 conferences are moving towards guaranteed scholarships and there is no official compensation–it is unusual to see a President speak about these issues. And as for his famous annual bracket, teams have started using it as motivation including Cat Barber who called out the President for picking Villanova to beat North Carolina State. It won’t happen, but we wish we could see Barber get invited to the White House and try to explain that one.
  5. We found one championship that Kentucky won’t win this year as the first men’s college basketball national championship of the year was awarded to Wisconsin-Stevens Point, which beat Augustana 70-54 on Saturday to win the Division III title. They won’t get much press for it, but it is the school’s fourth title in 12 years, which is impressive regardless of the level of competition you are playing against. We doubt that this will get more than a quick highlight over the Final Four weekend (unless Wisconsin ends up playing for the Division I title) as they typically broadcast the Division II championship game instead, but it is still worth noting.
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Morning Five: 03.19.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 19th, 2015

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  1. Companies often try to hide negative announcements by issuing press releases on Friday afternoon before a long weekend and we guess that is what Syracuse was trying to do by announcing that firing athletic director Daryl Gross and announcing that Jim Boeheim will retire in three years. The former is not exactly shocking since Gross ran the program during much of the time that it committed the NCAA violations for which it was punished. The announcement for Boeheim is a little more surprising and seems to suggest a comprise at some level as it was not that long ago that Boeheim said he would not be retiring any time soon. It would seem that the administration wanted to get rid of Boeheim, but perhaps he was too powerful to have that happen so instead we will be treated to the world’s longest retirement tour. It also raises questions as to what the school’s plans will be to replace Boeheim since Mike Hopkins has been the coach-in-waiting for years, but that was under Gross and with Gross on his way out that decision will be made by his successor, who might opt to go in a completely different direction. It will be interesting to see what happens in the post-Boeheim era since without Boeheim and the basketball program’s reputation there is really nothing to draw a recruit there and the area is not exactly a hotbed for basketball talent.
  2. In other news… the NCAA Tournament is finally here. For some the NCAA Tournament kicked off with the first of the First Four games, but for traditionalists like us the “real” Tournament does not start until the field is set at 64. If you haven’t already found resources to help you understand each region and/or match-up either for your curiosity or your bracket (still a few hours left to make final edits), we have plenty of resources available in our 2015 NCAA Tournament section. If you are just looking for breakdowns of each region, we have that for you for the East, Midwest, South, and West Regions. If you are looking for a completely different way of looking at the NCAA Tournament, we would suggest you check out the post by Draft Express breaking down the prospects for each of the opening games. It will also help you sound a little smarter when you are sitting around with our friends talking about every prospect on each team. Of course, since you are visiting this site, we doubt that you need any help being smart.
  3. This year’s NCAA Tournament will produce many stars, but Chris Obekpa and Cliff Alexander are not likely to be among them barring any surprises. Obekpa, one of the top shot blockers in the country, was suspended for two weeks after testing positive for marijuana. While the decision to suspend Obekpa is not that surprising if that is the school’s policy, the decision to announce the suspension before the Selection Show was pretty gutsy since it could have been enough to move St. John’s down at least one seed line. As for Alexander, it appears increasingly likely that we have seen the last of him for at least this season as he did not make the trip with the team to Omaha for its opening game(s) while he waits to speak with NCAA investigators regarding alleged impermissible benefits he received (his mother receiving a loan). While we think Kansas can survive without Alexander, his absence limits their upside although a potential weekend match-up against Wichita State might have a bigger impact on that.
  4. The big topic in this year’s NCAA Tournament is obviously Kentucky namely who can actually beat the Wildcats. President Obama, for one, is picking Kentucky to win in his Presidential bracket (he also announced his support of a 30-second shot clock, which means that every red state will now support extending the shot clock to 45 seconds). As for someone with a little more legitimate NCAA basketball experience (and two more NCAA violations), Larry Brown boldly claimed that this Kentucky team would make the NBA Playoffs in the Eastern Conference. We won’t get into how ridiculous this statement is (plenty of others have already done it), but it does make us question the sanity of a Hall of Fame coach and one who led his team the AAC title. As for individuals who are trying to maintain a shred of credibility when discussing Kentucky, ESPN Magazine offered seven ways to beat Kentucky and teams that are suited to do so (hint: all of the teams listed are really, really good and none of the teams are listed in more than two of the seven ways). If you’re looking for more credible responses or at least ones from coaches who have matched up against Kentucky, Jeff Eisenberg has some of their tips on how to beat Kentucky and who is ideally equipped to do so.
  5. We suspect that the Equity in Athletics report claiming that many NCAA Tournament teams do not make a profit might involve some creative accounting methods, but it should serve as a reminder just how tenuous the financials can be for some schools and serve to highlight issues involved in paying student-athletes to pay college sports. While Louisville led the nation with its basketball program turning a $24.2 million profit in 2013-14, several notable programs like West Virginia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, and Davidson reported losses with the first two reporting $2.2 million and $2 million in losses respectively. Several other big-name programs reported breaking even and Duke, which apparently hired some accountants from Arthur Anderson, actually reported a $2 million loss for the 2008-9 season. Although we doubt the validity of some of the figures (particularly that Duke one), it does underscore the variable profitability within the sport.
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Morning Five: 03.11.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 11th, 2015

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  1. The automatic bids are starting to fill up. In the past two days, automatic bids have gone to Northeastern (Colonial), Manhattan (Metro Atlantic), Wofford (Southern), Valparaiso (Horizon), Robert Morris (Northeast), North Dakota State (Summit), and Gonzaga (West Coast). There are obviously some big story lines from Monday night that Tommy Lemoine covered in his Bracket Prep for Wofford, Northeastern, and Wofford. We will cover last night’s story lines a little more later today, but the things that jumped out at us were St Francis-Brooklyn remaining one of only five original Division I programs to never make the NCAA Tournament (Army, Citadel, Northwestern, and William & Mary are the others) and the questions surrounding whether or not BYU will receive an at-large bid.
  2. The coaching carousel is starting to heat up as three new positions opened up with SIU-Edwardsville firing Lennox Forrester, Illinois-Chicago firing Howard Moore, and Citadel firing Chuck Driesell. Forrester had been the coach at SIU-Edwardsville for eight seasons going 83-149 with losing seasons in each of his final seven seasons after going 17-11 in his first season, which also happened to be the school’s last year in Division II. Moore went 49-111 in five seasons with his only winning season happening in 2012-13 when he went 18-16. Driesell, the son of the legendary Lefty Driesell, had his best season in the last of his five seasons. Unfortunately, that was only 11-19 and he finished 42-113. Like the other positions we mentioned before, none of these would be what we consider big-time jobs, but the Illinois-Chicago position offers the appeal of being in one of the best basketball areas in the country and a decent conference (Horizon) to play in, which could entice a high-major assistant who might feel that he has waited long enough.
  3. The coaching carousel might generate most of the attention in terms of movement, but be sure to keep an eye for some potentially significant transfers now that many players are having their seasons end. One of the first big ones to hit the transfer market is Evan Payne, who announced on Instagram that he would be transferring from Loyola Marymount. Payne, who averaged 18 points and 2.8 rebounds per game this past season, will probably end up at a high-major school especially since he has two more years of eligibility remaining even if he has to sit out a year as we have not heard anything about him looking for a hardship waiver.
  4. If you thought there were grey areas with social media, just wait until we get into the crowdfunding. According to a report from Darren Rovell, FanAngel is proposing to allow fans to contribute money towards an athlete who returns to school instead of leaving to play professionally. The company would take 9% off the top as its commission. Of the remaining 91%, when the athlete completes his or her eligibility, the athlete would get 80%, the athlete’s teammates would get 10%, and the remaining 10% would put into a scholarship fund. Although this has generated quite a bit of buzz based on it being featured on ESPN.com, we have a hard time believing this will ever be approved as even the company’s founder admits that the NCAA has not signed off on it and expressed reservations about it. There are also issues with how the money gets distributed to the athlete since neither the athlete nor anybody representing him or her is supposed to contact the company before the athlete’s eligibility is complete. Given all of these issues, we have a hard time seeing how this will hold up to NCAA scrutiny.
  5. With the start of the NCAA Tournament a little over a week away (don’t get us started on the ridiculous event in Dayton) you are going to start seeing a lot of lists talking about the best games, players, shots, etc. We doubt that you are going to see many lists like Ken Pomeroy’s most tense NCAA Tournament games since 2010. Like many things that Pomeroy does, some of these are obvious and are easily remembered by even the most casual fan while others are things you would not have remembered without his work. Now, you can question his methodology here, which is admittedly not as rigorous as his usual statistical analysis, but it is a fun trip down memory lane.
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Morning Five: 03.09.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 9th, 2015

morning5

  1. The first automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament were handed out over the weekend. The first school to earn an automatic bid was Belmont, which upset Murray State on Saturday night to receive the Ohio Valley automatic bid. Yesterday, they were joined by North Florida (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South), and Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley). There will be three other automatic bids handed out later today with the Colonial, Mid-American, and Southern Conference all awarding their titles. If you are looking for a handy although not real-time infographic showing who is remaining in the field check out our Circle of March feature, which is updated daily.
  2. On Friday, NCAA handed down its sanctions against Syracuse after looking into the school for eight years (full 98-page report here). The headline of the sanctions is that Jim Boeheim will have to sit out for half of next year’s ACC regular season (nine games) and have 108 wins vacated from his record (moving him from 2nd to 6th on the all-time Division I men’s wins list for the time being), but the other sanctions and the stain it will leave on the program and those around it will probably have a more significant long-term effect. The scholarship reductions and limitations on the number of assistants who can go on recruiting trips could significantly impact the program for years to come. On an individual level, this will also make it more difficult for Mike Hopkins (the long-time coach-in-waiting) to succeed Boeheim and will also make it more difficult for him to get hired. The level of penalties (and the decision by the NCAA to only prosecute violations starting a few weeks after Syracuse won its only national title–very convenient…) should also make other schools–like one in particular in North Carolina–nervous.
  3. Speaking of NCAA violations, based on a report from Yahoo! Sports, Cliff Alexander is being investigated by the NCAA because his mother received a loan from a company that typically makes loans to professional athletes and agents. While it is not unusual for college athletes (or their families) to receive these type of loans it is usually after the athlete has finished competing in college as such a loan would be a NCAA violation. According to the report, both the NCAA and Kansas are trying to move the investigation along, but that Alexander’s legal counsel might be slowing it down. Given what we have read about the situation we doubt that we will see Alexander in a Kansas uniform again (at least until they need him for a promotional photo).
  4. The coaching carousel is starting to heat up. As of Sunday night, the two newest positions to open up are at Holy Cross where Milan Brown was fired and Penn where Jerome Allen will step down (a nice way of saying he was fired). We doubt that either is big enough to attract a big name candidate both positions should attract attention from mid-major coaches although there is a possibility that someone who is out of coaching might use one of the positions as a stepping stone to get back in. During his five seasons at Holy Cross, Brown went 69-83 with only two winning seasons (15-14 in 2011-12 and 20-14 in 2013-14). Allen, a former star at Penn who was a 2nd round pick in the 1995 NBA Draft, is 66-103 in six seasons heading into his final game on Tuesday.
  5. Senior nights are special in a lot of ways, but Georgetown’s senior night on Saturday stands out for the return of Tyler Adams, who has been sidelined since his freshman year due to an arrhythmia. While Senior Nights are typically reserved for individuals who remained on the team, John Thompson III, who has kept Adams on scholarship despite not playing for the team, decided to start Adams and ran the first play for Adams, which he dunked. Even though there were a lot of highlights from the weekend this moment will stick with us for the class that Thompson and Seton Hall showed giving Adams one last moment as a player as he enters the next phase of his life.
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Morning Five: 03.06.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 6th, 2015

morning5

  1. There had been hope that Justin Anderson would return this weekend from a broken finger and help make Virginia a legitimate national title threat again (well as much as you can be with Kentucky this year). The Cavaliers still could end up making a run in the NCAA Tournament, but that task just got tougher as Anderson will be out for an undetermined period of time following an appendectomy on Thursday. Anderson, who had been averaging 13.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2 assists per game prior to his injury, will probably miss at least part of the ACC Tournament with Virginia, but it is possible he could return for the NCAA Tournament particularly if Virginia makes it to the second weekend. The question for Virginia is what kind of shape Anderson will be in when he returns if they even make it that far.
  2. Last week we linked to Luke Winn’s Power Rankings analyzing how the top teams stack up defensively. This week, Luke took a look at how they compare on offense. By this point in the year you know a decent amount about how these teams perform on offense and certainly to a much greater degree than you do about their defensive abilities, but there are still certain aspects of the offenses that Luke takes a look at that you probably missed. One example of this is for Virginia where he looks at where Anderson is most effective (ok, that might not be as relevant any more–see above) as well as how effective they are at getting put-backs ranking first in the nation in tempo-adjusted put-back scoring (still relevant even with Anderson out).
  3. For years people have speculated about which teams were the “first four out”, but this year for the first time ever the NCAA will actually tell us by giving those teams #1 seeds in the NIT. We had assumed that this was usually the case but this is the first time that the NCAA will do so explicitly. The benefit for teams getting these #1 seeds is primarily that they get at least one more home game although we assume that they would have been highly seeded in the NIT under any seeding format.
  4. The coaching carousel started on Wednesday with Liberty firing Dale Layer after an 8-24 season. Layer, who was 82-113 in six seasons at Liberty, led the Flames to the NCAA Tournament in 2013 with an automatic bid despite going 6-10 in the Big South regular season. Prior to his time at Liberty, he had served as the coach at Colorado State from 2000 to 2007. Given the relative anonymity of the position we suspect that this will probably be filled by a mid-major assistant or a retread since we can’t see a high-major assistant going here for his first job.
  5. Indiana fans hoping for Brad Stevens a step in to save their failing program received some bad news yesterday and it wasn’t just that Stevens will never be coming to Bloomington. Athletic Director Fred Glass issued a statement in support of Tom Crean, which would seem to indicate that Crean’s job is safe for the time being. We are not going to call for Crean’s job like some columnists who don’t follow the sport and just write to get attention, but we do think that the coach of a top 10 program should be doing more than what Crean has done thus far. So although Glass may have voiced his support for Crean we wouldn’t be shocked if he looked at other big names if those names are put out there.
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Morning Five: 03.04.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 4th, 2015

morning5

  1. In a reminder that no program is immune from scandal, news came out on Monday morning that Rasheed Sulaimon, the only player ever dismissed by Mike Krzyzewski during his time at Duke, had been accused of sexual assault by two female students and that athletic department officials knew of the allegations in March 2014 (10 months before his dismissal). Neither of the women was willing to press charges reportedly for fear of a backlash similar to what Jameis Winston’s accuser experienced. Duke released a statement that essentially saying that federal law prevented it from discussing the case, which is about what we expected them to say while Krzyzewski offered three “no comment”s on a conference call. Duke has also said that the school and athletic department officials have done all that is required of them, which is technically true although they do seem to be using very broad definitions of laws and requirements as a means to not discuss the case. Plenty of people will be quick to attack Duke and Krzyzewski, but they are placed in a difficult situation. Should they have kicked Sulaimon off the team based on allegations from women who did not press charges or should they just let him play? The reported crimes if true are obviously horrific, but it is not much better to brand someone with the label of having sexually assaulted two women if he did not. As we have said before, this case will individually garner quite a bit of attention, but the bigger issue is the culture surrounding sexual assault that leads to women being afraid to press charges.
  2. With its win over West Virginia last night Kansas won the Big 12 regular season title for the 11th consecutive season. The Jayhawks were helped out by Iowa State’s comeback victory (or Oklahoma’s collapse) on Monday that gave them at least a share, but last night’s victory gave them the outright title. The streak, which is approaching the 13 straight Pac-8/-10 titles that John Wooden’s UCLA teams won from 1967 to 1979 (they also picked up a few national titles during that stretch) is probably underappreciated nationally even if basketball writers continue to mention it. While most casual fans remember seasons by what happens in the NCAA Tournament, the consistent excellence that Kansas has shown over the past 11 regular seasons is probably even more remarkable.
  3. With the season winding down many are focusing on Kentucky‘s place in history, but as John Gasaway notes in his Tuesday Truths there are several other teams having historic seasons. The most obvious of these is Virginia, which is in the midst of a historic 2-year run in the ACC, and if not for Duke scoring on 14 of its final 15 possessions in their comeback win (probably the most improbable run of the season) they would also be unbeaten. There are plenty of interesting figures in here including some teams who have put up better seasons statistically than you might suspect. Even if you aren’t someone who is into “numbers” it is an interesting and fairly simple look at how dominant certain teams have been.
  4. The idea of moving back the start of the college basketball season in order to allow it to start without having to compete with the college football is hardly a new one, but we are always surprised to see the visceral backlash it creates. While we love March Madness moving it back by a month (or more) would not necessarily make it worse. The idea of doing it to allow for more studying by student-athletes or to improve attendance by players leaving for the NBA Draft seems to be a much smaller factor especially since many of these players are on year-round academic plans and a relatively percent are actually involved in the NBA Draft process. The biggest issue involved in moving the NCAA Tournament back a month would be that it would no longer benefit from having little competition from other sports as it does in March. Instead it would be going up against The Masters, NBA Playoffs, and to a lesser degree spring training. If you want to use that as a rationale against moving the college basketball season back, we would be willing to hear that argument, but we don’t buy the idea of sticking to the current schedule just because of tradition.
  5. One of the many criticisms of the NCAA is how it preaches about the education of student-athletes and punishes them for poor academic performance, but typically lets schools slide when they try to circumvent the rules for their own gain. To that end the NCAA has put together a group of 20 college administrators to craft a proposal about how the NCAA should respond to such situations. This probably won’t (and shouldn’t) affect cases that are currently being investigated, but it should provide a warning to schools that they cannot manipulate their academic system just to improve their on-field performance. The actual enforcement of such a policy will be tricky because schools have a lot more to fight back against the NCAA than an individual student-athlete will, but this is at least a start.
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Morning Five: 03.02.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on March 2nd, 2015

morning5

  1. March is finally here. For those of you who have been slacking now is a very good time to cram in as much basketball before Selection Sunday. If the next two weeks seem overwhelming, we have an easy-to-use spreadsheet that lays everything out for you. Even if your team is in a conference that is not playing their conference tournament this week, it is worth keeping an eye on the games particularly later in the week because some of those could make a big difference in the bubble if a team that was expected to get an automatic bid is knocked off and then becomes a bubble team.
  2. The big news from this weekend came from Kansas where Cliff Alexander is being held out of games while the school and the NCAA work through questions regarding Alexander’s eligibility. While Alexander’s performance this year has been underwhelming–particularly in comparison to what some other similarly highly-touted freshman have done in recent years–his absence would be a big loss for Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament and beyond. Simply put, legitimate 7-footers big men with athleticism are extremely rare and despite Alexander’s current limitations he does have the ability to carry his team for brief stretches. Much like Rick Pitino last week, we are hesitant to question Bill Self, but the loss of Alexander would limit Kansas’ ceiling albeit to a much-lesser extent than what Chris Jones’ absence will do for Louisville.
  3. At this point North Carolina should just send the NCAA a drawing of a giant middle finger. The latest news from Dan Kane, who might be the least popular person in Chapel Hill, is that a senior associate athletic director helped a football player gain admission to a graduate school despite having a low GPA, no entrance exam score, and being several months past the application deadline. To make matters worse, the issue was brought up to the school’s provost, but instead of denying the admission he simply referred the official to the dean of the graduate school who admitted him in time after which he played in all but one of the team’s games, but regularly skipped classes while receiving Fs. While this appears to be the most egregious abuse of UNC’s graduate schools and the NCAA’s graduate school transfer waiver exception in this part of UNC’s ever-growing academic scandal, it was not the only case as it appears to have happened almost yearly with Justin Knox being another example, who may have been able to get into the graduate school anyways, but was past the application deadline and got in anyways. This probably won’t affect the NCAA’s decision given how many other things went on at the school, but it just makes the school look even worse and might be an issue that an accrediting body takes seriously.
  4. On Saturday, Billy Donovan won his 500th game with a win at home against Tennessee making him the second youngest to reach the figure (only Bobby Knight did it faster), but this might end up being his most disappointing season during his time in Gainesville. Coming into the season Florida was expected to be a top-10 team and potential Final Four threat. Now they will need to win the SEC Tournament to even make it to the NCAA Tournament and unfortunately for the Gators we suspect that a team from Lexington will be showing up for the SEC Tournament making that possibility seem like nothing more than a dream. The Gators did get one other piece of good news on Saturday with the return of Dorian Finney-Smith from a three-game suspension. Finney-Smith, who came into the game as the team’s second-leading scorer at 12.9 per game and leading rebounder at 5.8 per game, had 20 points and 10 rebounds and makes the Gators a threat to make a SEC Tournament run given all their talent, but in the end it probably will not matter.
  5. Dwayne Polee II‘s comeback suffered a setback when the senior forward was noted to have “abnormal” readings on his implanted cardiac monitor necessitating an adjustment in one of his cardiac medications. Polee, who collapsed during a game on December 22, returned to action last weekend, but with this setback we are not sure how much longer he will be out. It isn’t our place to tell Polee to play or not (that decision is up to Polee, his doctors, and his family), but whenever we hear about cases like this we always think of Hank Gathers, who died on March 4, 1990 (Wednesday will be the 25th anniversary). Dick Jerardi wrote an excellent piece on Gathers and his legacy for Philly.com, which only serves to reinforce our concern in situations like this.
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Morning Five: 02.27.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on February 27th, 2015

morning5

  1. The Chris Jones story is quickly going from bad to horrific. The former Louisville guard who was suspended indefinitely for one game last week before returning to lead Louisville to a comeback victory over Miami on Saturday has been charged with raping one woman and sodomizing another later that night. These events appear to be unrelated Jones sending a threatening text message to another woman, which appears to be the cause of his indefinite one-game suspension. According to the school, Jones, who has pleaded not guilty, was dismissed from the team after missing a Saturday night curfew and they were unaware of the nature of the charges prior to his dismissal.
  2. Being the son of LeBron James will lead to increased scrutiny particularly on the basketball court, but it appears that LeBron is ok with it up to a certain point, which appears to be college coaches recruiting his 10-year-old son LeBron James Jr. On some level part of this is due to James and other (like the John Lucas Camp) promoting videos of LeBron Jr. on social media. Even in the world of recruiting, reaching out to a 10-year-old is ridiculous especially when his father is among the most famous athletes on the planet and has access to any basketball figure he would like to speak to (ok, maybe not Pat Riley any more).
  3. Nathan Power, the Kansas State student who intentionally ran into Jamari Traylor following Kansas State’s victory over Kansas, has been cited for disorderly conduct. It is unclear what kind of penalty Power, who apologized in the student newspaper, will face. At the very least we would expect that he will be banned from going to Kansas State games for the foreseeable future, but we are not sure if he will face a fine or any kind of disciplinary measures such as probation.
  4. Over the years we have heard quite a bit about how Mark Few would never leave Gonzaga, but we have not seen a profile on Few that is in-depth as the one Jason King wrote. The picture that King paints of Few’s life at Gonzaga makes it seem unlikely that Few will be leaving any time soon. We are certain that some big school could offer Few more money and the possibility of becoming a NBA coach down the road (sorry, but we doubt that anybody is going straight from the sideline of the WCC to leading a NBA team), but it is usually not a good idea to mess with happy especially when Few is well-compensated and gets the chance to compete for a national title every year.
  5. This week’s version of Luke Winn’s Power Rankings are lighter on statistical analysis than usual, but it does offer a nice concise look at the defenses of the top teams in the country. The analysis–particularly the strengths/weaknesses–might serve as a good tool if you are looking at potential NCAA Tournament upsets. Some of the analysis is obvious like Kentucky and Virginia having ridiculously good defenses, but many people might not take the time to think about the weaknesses that those teams have (yes, there are a few weaknesses even for those teams).
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Morning Five: 02.25.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on February 25th, 2015

morning5

  1. Chris Jones‘ dismissal got a lot more complicated for Louisville when it was revealed on Monday that he had threatened to slap a female student prior to his dismissal for the team. At this point Jones will never play college basketball again and will likely end up playing overseas. The question to us is when did The Louisville staff find out about this and what did Jones do that led to his ultimate dismissal. Pitino is too big of a figure to be dismissed over something like this especially since nothing appears to have happened, but it is a bad look for an athletic department that has had its share of players with outside issues.
  2. In the wake of Kansas State‘s win over Kansas and more importantly the post-game celebration several pundits have decided to take up the crusade against students rushing the court after games. Some might consider us to be experts on the topic (whatever that is supposed to mean), but the truth is we don’t necessarily consider ourselves to be arbiters on the subject even if people turn to us for ruling and occasionally misquote us in national publications. In reality, we consider the topic more nuanced than many of the reactionary pieces we saw online yesterday. Brian Goodman had a pretty good take on the topic that addresses some of the finer points and goes into greater detail than we would probably take the time to go into so if you are looking for our take on it that would be a good place to start.
  3. We are not quite at March yet, but for some people it is never to early to start preparing for your bracket. Over the years we have seen various individuals introduce systems for predicting upsets with some of them being fairly successful. So while we are not overly impressed with ESPN’s contribution of “Giant Killer clans” (maybe it is better on oversized paper that doesn’t seem to fit anywhere) it might be worth saving for Selection Sunday if you happen to see any of the match-ups they talk about and you want to take a shot at an upset. As we get closer to Selection Sunday, we will probably see more pieces helping you pick your bracket so it is worth keeping an eye on even if you will still probably end up losing to someone who picks games based on mascots.
  4. We are all familiar with schools offering need-based financial aid, but Michigan‘s plan to offer need-based student ticket pricing is the first we have heard of such a concept. According to the school, students will be eligible for discounted student season tickets for football ($100 vs $175), men’s basketball ($120 vs $200), and men’s hockey ($90 vs $150) if they qualify for Pell Grants. Given the popularity of Michigan sports we understand the need to make students commit to student tickets even with a ridiculously big football stadium, but the relatively paltry difference in price seems to make this measure seem more like a PR move than anything significant.
  5. While it will not fall under the same category of embarrassment that Louisville suffered as the result of the Chris Jones dismissal (and his preceding actions) Rick Pitino‘s criticism of Miami for allowing Tonye Jekiri to return to Saturday’s game after there was concern for a concussion when in fact it was a Louisville team physician who cleared Jekiri to return to play. It might seem like a relatively minor point and we are not sure if teams have uniform policies, but Pitino’s lack of understanding for the protocols surrounding a player injury is somewhat surprising. Fortunately, basketball does not have the same issues with injuries as football does, but it would seem like a coach should know how his players are assessed for injuries.
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Morning Five: 02.23.15 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on February 23rd, 2015

morning5

  1. We are hesitant to write off a Rick Pitino-coached team, but the announcement by Louisville yesterday that Chris Jones had been dismissed from the team should take away any (slim) hope they had of making a title run. The timing of the announcement–a day after Jones returned from an indefinite suspension that lasted one game to lead the team in a comeback win over Miami with 17 points, five rebounds, two steals and two assists–raises a lot of questions about what happened in less than 24 hours that could have led to his dismissal. For the Cardinals, a team already lacking scoring depth the dismissal of Jones (13.7 points, 4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game) is a crippling blow that probably limits their potential to a second weekend team although if they make it to Indianapolis it would not be the first time that Rick Pitino has surprised us.
  2. It was an interesting weekend for coaching outbursts. The more notable event happened at North Carolina where Roy Williams criticized fans on Saturday for their lack of understanding of his decision to run Four Corners as a tribute to Dean Smith and their overall apathetic nature. On some level, we can agree with Williams as UNC crowd’s are notoriously quiet (“Wine and Cheese”), but it is always dangerous to criticize the paying customers. Tim Miles took a slightly different approach as he banned the Nebraska players from entering the locker room or lounge and prevented them from speaking to the media after their 28-point loss at home to Iowa on Sunday. With the way that the team has performed this year (going from a NCAA Tournament team to one that won’t even get into any of the postseason tournaments) we can understand his frustration, but antagonizing your entire team probably isn’t the best approach.
  3. After having to sit out 61 days following an incident where he collapsed on the court, Dwayne Polee II returned to the court for San Diego State on Saturday night. Although Polee only scored 3 points in 13 minutes his return after being worked up extensively and diagnosed with an arrhythmia was a special moment for Polee and the crowd. Polee, the 2013-14 Mountain West Conference Sixth Man of the Year, was averaging  8.4 points per game so if he can return to close to full strength he could be a huge addition for the Aztecs in March. Although we will always probably nervous about hearing players in this situation return to the court it seems like the physicians in San Diego did a pretty thorough work-up of Polee.
  4. There were a couple of other notable announcements involving players over the weekend outside of Chris Jones. Aaron Cosby, who is still indefinitely suspended, announced that he will be transferring after the season and utilizing the graduate transfer waiver. Cosby, who played two years at Seton Hall before transferring to Illinois, was averaging 7.8 points per game, but doing it on absolutely atrocious shooting (29.3% from the field). Although graduate transfers are usually coveted since they can play right away and have experience we are not sure how interested programs will be in a highly inefficient player who is transferring while suspended. At Tennessee, freshman forward Jabari McGhee will redshirt this season as he continues to rehab from surgery on his right foot. McGhee, who was averaging 4.4 points and 3.8 rebounds, injured the foot on December 17 and underwent surgery two days later. Instead of risking further injury, McGhee is planning on taking a medical redshirt and given the Volunteers recent tailspin it would make sense not to bring him back this year anyways.
  5. Perhaps Syracuse can try to get NCAA investigators off their case by pretending this entire season didn’t happen including Saturday’s fiasco where they retired Roosevelt Bouie‘s jersey, but presented him with a plaque that included a jersey with his name misspelled as it read “Bowie” instead of Bouie. The school did manage to spell his name right on the jersey hanging from the rafters, but it is still another embarrassing incident for the school although one that is not as likely to carry repercussions as significant as what the NCAA might hand down for their other errors. In the end, this will probably just result in Bouie getting a replacement jersey and plenty of individuals (mostly from Georgetown) having a good laugh.
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