Rushed Reaction: North Carolina 61, Virginia 57

Posted by Matt Patton on March 12th, 2016

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Three Key Takeaways:

  1. North Carolina’s defense was tremendous, as it was all tournament long in Washington. Marcus Paige was mostly tasked with guarding Malcolm Brogdon (along with Kenny Williams, of all people) and held him to 15 points on 22 shots including only one trip to the foul line. After the game, Brogdon gave North Carolina credit for flooding the lane when he drove, but he also took a lot of responsibility for the poor performance. For his part, Roy Williams called Paige one of the five best defensive guards he’s ever coached. Looking past Brogdon, London Perrantes also struggled shooting with Joel Berry smothering him (he finished 3-of-14 from the field). The Cavaliers did a great job on the offensive boards, but couldn’t convert enough of those to second chance points.

    North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks (3) and North Carolina forward Brice Johnson (11) celebrate winning the championship game of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington, DC, Saturday, March 12, 2016. (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

    North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks (3) and North Carolina forward Brice Johnson (11) celebrate winning the championship game of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington, DC, Saturday, March 12, 2016. (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

  2. In the first 13 minutes of the game, North Carolina committed eight turnovers on 19 possessions. They were careless with the ball in the post, often trying to make passes that weren’t there. And while Virginia didn’t light up the scoreboard off of those turnovers, they led to a lot of extra shots. Some post turnovers are inevitable against Virginia — especially considering the Tar Heels’ love of quick post passes — but once North Carolina started hitting some jump shots, their post players started playing better with the ball.
  3. There’s not much Virginia should take away from tonight’s game because the Cavaliers controlled the tempo and dominated the offensive boards. Roy Williams was asked what he thought North Carolina’s chances would be if they had been killed on the glass and didn’t make their threes: “Zero,” he responded. The more I reflect on the game, the more it felt like this was Virginia’s game to win. That shouldn’t take away from what North Carolina accomplished here, but Virginia played a near-perfect game apart from missing its jump shots. One game sample sizes are cruel bedfellows, but don’t use this game to say that Tony Bennett’s team can’t win the NCAA Tournament over the next several weeks.

Star of the Game: It’s tough to choose, but Joel Berry was North Carolina’s difference-maker this whole tournament. As he’s evolved into a backcourt leader, the Heels have started taking on his persona as a team. They have more of an edge than they did at the start of the year, and a lot of the credit for that change in character should go to Berry. He plays for contact and isn’t scared of tough jump shots. Against Pittsburgh, Berry put the team on his back when their shots weren’t falling. Against Virginia, Berry hit the shot to take the lead for good along with a dagger three and four free throws to ice the game. Tonight, his defense and 19 points carried the day.

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Rushed Reactions: Virginia 73, Miami 68

Posted by Matt Patton on March 12th, 2016

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Three Key Takeaways:

  1. This game featured a ton of experience. Miami started three seniors and two juniors with a senior as the first player off the bench; Virginia started two seniors and a junior with a senior as the first player off the bench. That experience helped Miami hang tight with Virginia throughout, but it also aided Virginia in stopping Miami from ever taking a lead. Jim Larranaga was frustrated by his team’s uncharacteristic mistakes (notably turnovers and fouling), but their opponent didn’t make anything easy, either. London Perrantes deserves credit for not committing a turnover all game. Maybe because the top of the league is so blessed with experience (the top four seeds all feature experienced lineups), there has only been one upset so far in the ACC Tournament — at least according to seed.

    Virginia guard Malcolm Brogdon (15) is pressured by Miami guard Sheldon McClellan (10) during the semifinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington DC, Friday, March 11, 2015. (Photo by Sara D. Davis, theACC.com)

    Virginia guard Malcolm Brogdon (15) is pressured by Miami guard Sheldon McClellan (10) during the semifinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington DC, Friday, March 11, 2015. (Photo by Sara D. Davis, theACC.com)

  2. Angel Rodriguez giveth and taketh away. On the same play, he threw a ridiculous behind-the-back pass at Ivan Cruz Uceda that should have been taken the other way for an easy two by Virginia. Instead Rodriguez got it back and hit a three to cut the game to a single possession. He was nearly perfect from the field, but turned the ball over once casually dribbling behind his back (he kicked it out of bounds) and once palming the ball. In a way, Rodriguez’s play was emblematic of his team’s performance, as every time they cut the game to three or four points a bad pass would wind up in Virginia’s hands.
  3. Virginia’s bigs didn’t have stellar games. Mike Tobey disappeared in the second half and Anthony Gill was saddled with foul trouble. Miami also did a great job of getting into the paint (the Hurricanes scored 32 of their 68 points in the paint, and that number would be much higher if you included free throws resulting from paint touches). The Cavaliers must defend that area of the floor better tomorrow or North Carolina’s front line will feast inside. Virginia also doesn’t have the depth up front to afford foul trouble against a deep Tar Heels front line.

Star of the Game: Malcolm Brogdon wasn’t perfect. He missed a lot of shots but he was still the player Virginia turned to whenever it needed a big bucket and he iced the game from the free throw line. His generally unflappable persona played a big role in Virginia’s cool demeanor when it looked like Miami might go on a run. Just on defense alone, Brogdon deserves national recognition, but his importance to the Cavaliers’ offense should make him a consensus first team All-American. It certainly made him the most important player on the floor tonight.

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ACC Tournament Thursday Takeaways

Posted by Matt Patton on March 11th, 2016

Thursday in Washington, DC, featured a terrific afternoon with Notre Dame clawing past Duke in overtime. Unfortunately, the other three games of the day weren’t quite as closely contested. Here are a few takeaways from the quarterfinals action.

The Pitt band plays during the quarterfinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington, DC, Thursday, March 10, 2016. (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

The Pitt band plays during the quarterfinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington, DC (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

North Carolina (26-6): The Tar Heels got a huge lift from Joel Berry in the first half as he carried their often-stagnant offense. In the second half, North Carolina’s depth was on full display while Brice Johnson was his normal all-ACC self. However, the highlight of the day may have been head coach Roy Williams failing to censor himself in the following exchange:

Q: Coach, the unbalanced schedule this year. It benefited you guys having the easiest strength of schedule in the ACC this year. Do you think it benefited you at all getting the No. 1 seed going into this tournament?

A: Depends on how you evaluate that. You know what we didn’t have the benefit of, to make somebody say we didn’t have the easy schedule, we didn’t get to play North Carolina. All that is a bunch of horse ****.

Well said, coach. We all want the round-robin back, but that’s not realistic with 15 teams. Even then, we don’t think you’d be able to play North Carolina.

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RTC Top 25: Final Regular Season Edition

Posted by Walker Carey on March 8th, 2016

Another regular season has come and gone. In a season that was defined by utter craziness throughout, the final week was laced with mostly expected results. Previously #22 Wichita State, however, suffered an unexpected defeat to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Tournament semifinals. That loss is part of a less than spectacular NCAA Tournament résumé that will have Gregg Marshall’s Shockers sweating all the way up to Selection Sunday. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty is after the jump.

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Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

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2016 ACC Tournament Preview

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 8th, 2016

After 10 consecutive years of southern hospitality, the ACC Tournament moves north to Washington, D.C., for a year before heading even farther up the east coast to Brooklyn in 2017 and 2018. This will mark the fifth time the ACC Tournament has been held in the DC area, and the first time back there since 2005. In a bit of a public gaffe, the league’s marketing office apparently used the wrong dome in a stock photo advertising for the tournament. Let’s hope that’s the only embarrassment that the league suffers this week. As we move into day one of the tournament, here’s a preview of a few things we expect to occur.

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Here’s a printable version of the Bracket: 2016 ACC Tournament

And The Winner Is: According to KenPom, there’s a 66 percent chance that one of the league’s two highest-rated teams (#2 Virginia and #1 North Carolina) wins the ACC crown this week. We agree that those are the two teams to beat, with the Cavaliers earning a slight edge over the Tar Heels. Led by newly-minted ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon, the Cavaliers have been the league’s best team during the second half of conference play. North Carolina is certainly capable of beating any team in Washington, but we are a little leery of the Tar Heels’ tendency toward inconsistent shooting.

Dark Horse With a Chance: It would be a massive surprise if #4 Notre Dame repeats its historic run in Greensboro from last year, but there is a distinct possibility that this season’s bracket could break in favor of the Fighting Irish. It’s unlikely that Mike Brey’s squad will win the ACC title, but it could make a run to the championship game on Saturday. Could the 2016 ACC Tournament feature a narrative similar to that of 1976, the first time the league held its championship in the D.C. area? Virginia, the #6 seed, beat three higher-seeded teams on its way to the program’s first-ever ACC title. The Cavaliers were led by ACC Tournament MVP Wally Walker, who was supposedly motivated by a perceived snub by a media corps that neglected to vote him on to the all-ACC First Team that year. Many observers thought Notre Dame point guard Demetrius Jackson would be an all-ACC First Teamer when the league announced its current season awards on Sunday, but the outstanding junior ended up as a Second Team selection. It would not shock anyone if Jackson is out to prove a point this week.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VII – Final Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 7th, 2016

Here is the final edition of our weekly look at the ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. This week we also examine how each ACC team performed on the road compared with its home performances, and we take a final stab at predicting postseason placement for all of the eligible ACC schools.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Saturday, March 5.

Current StandingsACCStand-Mar7

North Carolina and Virginia were pegged in the preseason as the two best teams in the ACC and that’s exactly how it turned out. Each team went through a tough stretch of games — Virginia began conference play with a 2-3 record while North Carolina was 4-4 in the month of February, but the Tar Heels and Cavaliers will enter the ACC Tournament as the clear co-favorites based on efficiency margins and seeding. Speaking of that, both teams are also still in the hunt for #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament along with favorable opening weekend placement in friendly Raleigh.

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ACC Weekend Review: 03.07.16 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins on March 7th, 2016

The ACC regular season came to an end on Saturday, and despite persistent congestion at the top of the league standings for much of the campaign, we finished with an outright champion as North Carolina claimed its first regular season conference title since 2012. The Tar Heels collected this year’s title in a similar fashion to how they did so that season, beating archrival Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium after suffering an earlier crushing home loss to the Blue Devils. Miami was not able to tie the Tar Heels for the league’s top spot because of another poor showing on the road — this time at the hands of surging Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Virginia also easily handled Louisville for the second time this season. The Cavaliers (now ranked #1 in KenPom) are perhaps the favorite to win the upcoming ACC Tournament in Washington, D.C. Here are some of the highlights from a busy weekend around the league.

Brice Johnson slams home two of his 18 points as North Carolina dominated Duke in the paint. (Mark Dolejs/USA TODAY Sports)

Brice Johnson slams home two of his 18 points to help North Carolina dominate Duke in the paint. (Mark Dolejs/USA TODAY Sports)

  • Best Win: There was a lot at stake for North Carolina in its annual season-ending meeting with Duke. Not only were the Tar Heels playing their archrival for a regular season crown and a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Roy Williams’ team was also playing to prove its toughness against good competition — something this squad has struggled with. The game certainly wasn’t pretty (both teams shot less than 40 percent from the field), but North Carolina finally got over the hump to notch the big win (Duke had won 11 of their 14 previous meetings). To say that the Tar Heels dominated the glass would be a gross understatement. Led by Brice Johnson’s 21 boards, North Carolina held an incredible +35 edge in that category. Duke never led but managed to stay close by making 13 threes and committing eight fewer turnovers. The Tar Heels iced the game by going 8-of-8 from the foul line in the last 30 seconds of play. Saturday’s outcome continued an interesting recent trend in this rivalry. Over the last 14 seasons, Duke and North Carolina have split their regular season games eight times. On seven of those occasions, the Tar Heels claimed the season finale.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VI

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 4th, 2016

Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. Each week we delve into the advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. With the season winding down, we’ll look at which ACC schools are getting hot as the postseason beckons. We’ll also forecast how the final standings may look (this will be easier now than ever!) and what it means for each ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, March 2nd.

Current StandingsACCStand-Mar2

With just seven games left to play in the ACC regular season (all on Saturday), these numbers shouldn’t change much. As you’ll notice, efficiency margin and win-loss record correlate as strongly as you would imagine. No team with a losing record has a positive efficiency margin, although one team over .500 in the standings does have a deficit in points per possession. Virginia Tech has achieved its winning mark in the ACC despite being outscored by 0.03 points per possession. The Hokies have pulled off this neat trick by winning the close ones in Cassell Coliseum – Virginia Tech is 4-0 in home games decided by three points or less or in overtime. With his team picked to finish 14th in the league in the preseason, Buzz Williams is rightfully garnering support as a potential ACC Coach of the Year. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC Weekend Review: 03.01.16 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 1st, 2016

It was tough sledding on the road for four ranked ACC teams this weekend. In Saturday’s premier match-up, Virginia led most of the way and knocked off league leader North Carolina in Charlottesville. The outcome was not a big surprise, but we didn’t expect the Cavaliers to win the way they did — Virginia usually keeps the score in the 60s when it is most successful. Also on Saturday, Miami broke open a close game late to beat visiting Louisville, and Notre Dame was hammered on the road against Florida State. Pittsburgh captured a huge resume-building win against Duke at the Peterson Events Center on Sunday, and while most experts already projected Pittsburgh into the Big Dance, the one thing missing for Jamie Dixon’s squad was a signature win. Consider that box checked now. Here are some of the highlights from a busy weekend around the ACC.

Malcolm Brogdon made a strong case to be ACC Player-of-the-Year in Virginia's win over North Carolina. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Malcolm Brogdon made a strong case to be ACC Player-of-the-Year in Virginia’s win over North Carolina. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

  • Best Win: We had been anxiously waiting on the only meeting between the two preseason league favorites all season, and we weren’t disappointed. Virginia led most of the way but North Carolina stayed within striking distance due to some surprisingly hot shooting from deep (9-of-19 on threes). In the end, however, it was Virginia’s offense that was the difference (the Cavaliers scored 1.20 points per possession), representing its second-best output and the highest allowed by North Carolina in conference play. Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon may now be the front-runner for ACC Player of the Year after scoring 26 points and grabbing six boards while Brice Johnson only managed 12 points and five turnovers. Much of the credit for the Tar Heel star’s subpar performance goes to Virginia’s Anthony Gill, who was the primary defender on him for much of the night.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume V

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 26th, 2016

Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. Each week we delve into the advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we examine the relative shooting expertise among ACC schools. We’ll also forecast how the final standings may look and what it means for each ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Thursday, February 25th.

Current StandingsACCStand-Feb24Since last week’s analysis, North Carolina outscored its two opponents by a total of 37 points in extending its lead in efficiency margin while also reclaiming sole possession of first place in the standings. Miami seems to be the outlier among the crowded group of teams just below the Tar Heels. The Hurricanes’ continued struggles on the road is the reason for it. After last Saturday’s blowout loss to North Carolina, not only has Miami lost four of its seven away games, but Jim Larranaga’s team has also been outscored by .08 points per possession in ACC games away from Coral Gables. That makes the Hurricanes the 4th worst team in the league in road efficiency margin. Looking further down the standings, Georgia Tech’s record now corresponds to its efficiency margin, thanks to back to back home wins by a combined three points. This newly found phenomenon in Atlanta (winning close games), has many wondering if Brian Gregory might keep his job for next year, something that was regarded as an impossiblity just two weeks ago. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC Weekend Review: 02.22.16 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 22nd, 2016

In Saturday’s two headline ACC contests, one ended up a shocking blowout while the other turned out generally as expected. Most anticipated that a game between teams tied for first place would be a tightly-fought battle, but North Carolina easily handled Miami to reclaim sole possession of the top of the standings. In the other big game of the weekend, injuries and a corresponding lack of depth finally caught up with Duke, unable to hold off Louisville’s second half charge. Elsewhere around the league, it was a bad weekend for three ACC schools fighting for NCAA Tournament consideration. Syracuse lost at home to Pittsburgh, while Clemson and Florida State lost to teams with losing conference records. Here are some of the highlights from a busy weekend around the ACC.

Brice Johnson recorded another double-double and North Carolina routed Miami in Saturday's battle for first place in the ACC. (Gerry Broome/AP Photo)

Brice Johnson recorded another double-double and North Carolina demolished Miami in Saturday’s battle for first place in the ACC. (Gerry Broome/AP Photo)

  • Best Win: The battle for first place in the ACC was completely one-sided as North Carolina dominated Miami  in Chapel Hill. For anyone worried about the Tar Heels after their heart-breaking loss last week to rival Duke, those concerns were erased early in the second half when UNC quickly extended a nine-point halftime lead to as many as 38 points. Brice Johnson led a balanced Tar Heels’ attack with 16 points and 15 rebounds, while five teammates joined him with double figures. For Miami, it was the first of four straight games against ranked ACC opponents — a stretch that will undoubtedly test the Hurricanes’ legitimacy among the league leaders.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume IV

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 19th, 2016

Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. Each week we delve into the advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we consider which of the Four Factors are most important to winning in the ACC on a team-by-team basis. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, February 17th.

Current Standings

ACCStand-Feb17

Things are incredibly bunched up at the top of the ACC right now, with four schools only a game behind Miami and North Carolina in the loss column. Those two will battle for temporary league supremacy this weekend in Chapel Hill, as the Tar Heels try to bounce back from their crushing midweek loss to rival Duke. Note that the Tar Heels have faced the easiest slate of ACC games among the group of six, which may explain why they hold a slight edge on the rest of the league in efficiency margin. Meanwhile, Duke’s recent tough stretch of games has boosted its strength of schedule from 10th to seventh in the last two weeks. There’s an interesting situation also taking form in the lower middle of the ACC standings. N.C. State and Georgia Tech have performed about as well in conference play as Pittsburgh and Florida State, but because of their middling records, only the latter two are considered bubble teams. Maybe then it isn’t so surprising that the Wolfpack knocked off the Panthers and the Yellow Jackets bested the Seminoles, both on the road, earlier this season. And while most ACC fans will be watching the battle for first place this weekend, there will also be an intriguing matchup on Sunday night in Winston-Salem when 1-13 Wake Forest entertains 0-13 Boston College. In a twist of the old axiom, it will be the resistible force (Eagles’ offense) versus the movable object (Deacons’ defense). Something has to give!

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