Rushed Reactions: #1 Virginia 78, #8 Memphis 60

Posted by Brad Jenkins on March 23rd, 2014

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCeastregion@RTCMWregion,@RTCsouthregion and @RTCwestregion.

Three Key Takeaways.

Virginia Has No Superstars but Plays Great as a Team. (Photo: Gerry Broome/AP)

Virginia Has No Superstars but Plays Great as a Team, Especially on Defense.
(Photo: Gerry Broome/AP)

  1. Virginia got back to being Virginia. In the first half of Friday night’s contest with Coastal Carolina, the Cavaliers were not themselves, falling behind by 10 and trailing by five at the half while allowing the Chanticleers to shoot 52 percent. They tightened things up in the second half of that game and carried that familiar stingy defensive play into tonight’s round of 32 match-up with Memphis. In the first half tonight, Memphis managed only 20 points in 32 possessions and shot a dismal 26.7 percent. For the game, the Tigers were held to 40.7 percent shooting and managed just 0.91 points per possession, their third worst offensive performance of the season. In addition, the Cavaliers’ offense was sharp and balanced as usual. Virginia had five players score in double figures and they shot well in all areas – total field goals (56%), three-pointers (45%) and free throws (81%).
  2. Memphis could not speed up Virginia enough. Coming into the game there was a stark difference in each team’s preferred pace of play. Virginia ranks among the slowest teams in the country, while Memphis would rather play an up-tempo style. Whichever team could control the pace was going to be more comfortable and have the best shot at winning. In Friday’s win over George Washington, Memphis had 15 fast break points and did alright in that area again tonight with 18. But for the most part, Memphis was handcuffed here by the shooting disparity. It’s hard to set up a full-court press if your opponent rarely needs to inbound the ball after a made basket. And it’s also difficult to get out on the fast break when you’re constantly taking the ball out of the net on the other end.
  3. The battle of the boards went to Virginia. This was a big key to the game coming into Sunday, and it turned out to be critical. In a strength-versus-strength match, Memphis entered as one of the nation’s best teams (#29) in offensive rebounding percentage. The Tigers were up against a Virginia group that ranked seventh nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. This battle was decided during the pivotal first half, with Memphis shooting so poorly that there were 22 caroms available on that end of the floor. The Cavaliers stepped up and grabbed 19 of those to take away what the Tigers’ do best. For the game, Virginia allowed the Tigers to grab only 19 percent of their misses, and the Cavaliers ended with a sold +12 edge in total rebounds.

Star of the GameJoe Harris, Virginia. The senior Harris led the balanced attack with 16 points, including nine in the first half when Virginia broke the game open.

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Rushed Reactions: #1 Virginia 70, #16 Coastal Carolina 59

Posted by Brad Jenkins on March 22nd, 2014

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCeastregion@RTCMWregion,@RTCsouthregion and @RTCwestregion.

Three Key Takeaways.

With Harris leading the Cavaliers, VCU could struggle to find its typical turnover-forcing rhythm (USA Today).

Joe Harris and Virginia Avoided History by Rallying to Beat Coastal Carolina(USA Today).

  1. History was almost made and almost repeated. Coastal Carolina came very close to being the first #16 seed to knock off a #1 tonight. The Chanticleers, champions of the Big South Conference, took it to the ACC champions in the first half. Virginia trailed by as many as 10 points and went into the break staring at a 35-30 score in favor of the overwhelming underdogs. For old-time ACC fans, today brought back memories of a similar situation that is known as “Black Saturday.” In the 1979 NCAA East Regionals held in this same city of Raleigh, Duke and North Carolina both fell in huge upsets in back-to-back games.
  2. For the first time in a long time Virginia did not look like Virginia. On the way to winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Cavaliers went 19-2 with the only losses coming on a last possession lucky-bounce three at Duke, and an overtime loss at Maryland. Throughout that long stretch of games, Virginia has been a model of consistency, mostly winning with defense and rebounding. But in the first half tonight, a different Cavaliers team showed up. Against a Virginia defense that allows only 38.5 percent shooting for the season, Coastal Carolina made 52 percent of their first half attempts. Things were even more surprising on the boards. The Cavaliers did not grab a single offensive rebound in the game and finished tied in total rebounds (28 each). Virginia actually won with its offense in the second half tonight, shooting 65 percent and making 6-of-10 from three point range. Read the rest of this entry »
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NCAA Game Analysis: Second Round, Friday Evening

Posted by Brian Otskey, Andrew Murawa, Walker Carey & Bennet Hayes on March 21st, 2014

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We may not know what the Friday evening sessions might have in store for us, but we can be confident in thinking there will be lots of excitement. Let’s continue our analysis of all of today’s games with the evening slate of eight contests.

#8 Memphis vs. #9 George Washington – East Region Second Round (at Raleigh, NC) – 6:55 PM ET on TBS

It's Put Up or Shut Up Time for Josh Pastner (Photo: Spruce Derden/USA TODAY Sports)

It’s Put Up or Shut Up Time for Josh Pastner
(Photo: Spruce Derden/USA TODAY Sports)

On paper this is a very intriguing game. The statistics, especially those compiled by Ken Pomeroy, point to an even match-up between two teams who play similar styles. A tougher Atlantic 10 schedule caught up to George Washington in the closing weeks of the season but the Colonials still enter this game with a 7-5 record in their last 12 games. Memphis, on the other hand, is just 4-4 in its last eight after getting bounced on its home floor by Connecticut in the AAC Tournament. Mike Lonergan’s team will be led by a pair of former high-major players who transferred to his program, Maurice Creek and Isaiah Armwood. Creek represents the most substantial three-point threat for GW and it will be interesting to see if he can get some shots to go down against a Memphis guard unit that defends the arc fairly well. There is injury news regarding the Colonials. 6’3” guard Kethan Savage is unlikely to see significant time if at all, but Lonergan would not rule him out of action when asked on Thursday. Savage (12.7 PPG) made a one-minute appearance in last week’s conference tournament loss to VCU but has not played any significant minutes since January 18. If he can go, it would provide more of an emotional lift to GW than anything else given he is nowhere near 100 percent. As for Memphis, it will have to dominate the paint area and win the rebounding battle in order to advance to the round of 32. The Tigers have a lot of talent but it is hard to trust this team against a talented A-10 club with something to prove.

The RTC Certified Pick: George Washington

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NCAA Tournament Tidbits: 03.21.14 Edition

Posted by Griffin Wong on March 21st, 2014

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March Madness is finally upon us, and we here at RTC are here to make everything a little bit easier for you. From the First Four until One Shining Moment, we’ll be dropping daily tidbits of knowledge regarding the teams in each region.

South Region

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James Johnson’s Dismissal Highlights the Other Unpleasant Side of March

Posted by Lathan Wells on March 17th, 2014

The month of March is one that brings joy to many college basketball programs across the country, as they now have the chance to chase a national championship via the NCAA Tournament (or to a lesser extent, an NIT title that at least yields a banner). But as many know, March is often a time of despondency across the college basketball landscape. It starts with the teams that had their hopes dashed on Selection Sunday when their names weren’t called, but it also extends to the programs whose seasons are completely over. That’s where the dark days in March occur, and Virginia Tech’s James Johnson experienced such a day today as he was relieved of his duties as head coach of the Hokies after a mere two seasons on the bench.

James Johnson's uninspiring term at Virginia Tech ended after only two years (newsleader.com)

James Johnson’s uninspiring term at Virginia Tech ended after only two years (newsleader.com)

Johnson was considered something of a surprise hire when he replaced the ousted Seth Greenberg two years ago. In fact, he had never been a head coach at all, having recently left Blacksburg to take on a similar assistant coaching role at Clemson. Instead, Greenberg’s messy exit coupled with resounding support from the holdover players convinced the administration to hire Johnson to take over the program, citing in particular his recruiting ability for some of the better teams of the Greenberg era. He inherited a bad team in his first season that only produced 13 wins, even with ACC Player of the Year and eventual pro Erick Green on the roster. His follow-up nine-win campaign, which resulted in a dead-last performance in a 15-team ACC, was due to an extremely underwhelming roster. In the preseason, Johnson made the bizarre decision to name an incoming freshman team captain despite the presence of seniors Jarell Eddie and Cadarian Raines returning. And it wasn’t a superstar talent like Jabari Parker who was named the leader, either; it was two- or three-star guard Ben Emelogu. Emelogu had a decent start to his first college campaign, but he was far from a star.

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Bracket Prep: East Region Analysis

Posted by Brian Otskey (@botskey) on March 17th, 2014

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Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (10:00 AM), Midwest (11:00 AM), South (1:00 PM), West (2:00 PM). Here, Brian Otskey (@botskey) breaks down the East Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC East Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCeastregion).

You should also check out our upcoming RTC Podblast with Brian breaking down the East Region, which will drop both on the site and on iTunes Tuesday.

East Region

Favorite: #1 Virginia (28-6, 16-2 ACC) – The Cavaliers earned the final No. 1 seed and there should be no griping about that. While much is made about Virginia’s unbalanced ACC schedule, you can’t brush off both the regular season and conference tournament crowns. Tony Bennett’s team has a great blend of talent and experience with seniors Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell leading an impressive group of sophomores. This team is one of the finest in the nation on the defensive end of the floor where it has earned its reputation for slow, physical basketball, but its offense doesn’t get the credit it deserves. Virginia ranks No. 25 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and was second behind only Duke in ACC games.

Joe Harris led his Cavaliers team to the ACC title and a No. 1 seed. (USA Today).

Joe Harris led his Cavaliers team to the ACC title and a No. 1 seed. (USA Today).

Should They Falter: #2 Villanova (28-4, 16-2 Big East) – The Wildcats blew their chance to grab the top seed in this region with a quarterfinal Big East loss to Seton Hall on Thursday. That said, Villanova remains a dangerous team. Jay Wright’s group has not received a lot of press because most people may not even know the players on this team. There are no stars or surefire NBA draft picks here, but this team plays with tremendous chemistry and is efficient on both sides of the ball. Are the Wildcats too reliant on the three-point shot? Probably, but the toughest competition for Villanova likely won’t arrive until the Sweet Sixteen at the earliest, where it may have to face Iowa State.

Grossly Overseeded: #13 Delaware (25-9, 14-2 Colonial) – Admittedly, this is a reach. There are no teams in this region I felt were overseeded, but I have to pick one, Delaware is it. The Blue Hens went just 8-7 outside of conference play and are a great example of the stark contrast between the RPI and better rating systems like KenPom. Delaware is No. 70 in the RPI, which no doubt helped them to a No. 13 seed, but its efficiency profile (No. 105 in KenPom) is much more similar to that of a #14 or #15 seed. The Blue Hens are a good team and were very competitive with Villanova and Notre Dame this season, among others, but a #14 seed may have been more appropriate. Again, this is a very minor quibble with an otherwise solid seeding job in this region by the committee.

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Bracket Prep: Florida, Virginia, Michigan State

Posted by Bennet Hayes on March 17th, 2014

Championship Week has found its close, but here are a few final short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket this week. None of these titans really needed the “automatic bid” portion of their Tournament title gift package, of course, but with each figuring to play a key role in the weeks ahead, here’s what you need to know about a trio of Championship Week’s final victors.

Florida

Billy Donovan And The Gators Are SEC Champions Twice Over, But Florida Has Their Sights Set On A Greater Prize

Billy Donovan And The Gators Are SEC Champions Twice Over, But Florida Has Their Sights Set On A Greater Prize

  • SEC Champion (32-2, 21-0)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #2/#3/#3
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +16.1
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #1

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

  1. In the final minutes of basketball before the 2014 NCAA Tournament bracket was unveiled, Florida survived Kentucky to claim the SEC crown, complete their 21-game conference sweep, and keep alive a 26-game win streak. Quite a tidy going away package for the Gators, who will enter the Tournament as a #1 seed and among the two or three favorites to cut down the nets in Dallas. The one-point victory Sunday was only the fifth time this season that the Gators have won by three points or less – a testament to the workmanlike attitude that has extended this win streak time and time again.
  2. The Gators led the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Defensive weaknesses are hard to spot with the Gators, but despite the high overall level of offensive efficiency, there is a weak spot or two that opponents will seek to exploit. Florida’s free throw shooting is shaky (66.2% as a team, 295th nationally), and even primary ballhandlers Scotty Wilbekin (72%), Casey Prather (68%) and Kasey Hill (63%) are anything but sure things at the charity stripe. Three-point shooting isn’t a concern for Florida at first glance – they shoot 37% as a team, 73rd best in the country – but Wilbekin (58 3PM, 40%) and Michael Frazier (107 3PM, 46%) have combined to make over 70% of the team’s three-point field goals. The rest of the team shot just 27% from distance, so if an opponent can find a way to take away looks from either Wilbekin or Frazier – especially the latter, who is strictly a perimeter shooter – things could get pretty one-dimensional for the Gator offense.
  3. Florida is the perfect example of a team that used the entire season to grow into an elite squad. For much of November and December, Billy Donovan was just trying to keep proverbial head above water with his team, as pieces shifted in and out of the Gator lineup. Wilbekin, Prather, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kasey Hill, and Chris Walker all missed time for various reasons, but save for road losses at Wisconsin and Connecticut (and no shame in those, either), the Gators kept on winning. Prather grew into an unlikely All-American candidate, Wilbekin has staked his claim as the best point guard in America, and Frazier is now second to none when it comes to perimeter shooters. None of these things happen without one of the best coaches in the game pressing all the right buttons from the sideline, but Donovan has spent the last four months constructing a team poised for even greater things in the NCAA Tournament. And after winning 26 games in a row en route to a sweep of the SEC titles, that, my friends, is saying something.

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ACC M5: 03.17.14 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 17th, 2014

morning5_ACC

  1. Hampton Roads Daily Press: So the big news out of Greensboro is that the ACC is working on a deal with the A-10 to send the ACC Tournament to Brooklyn for 2017 and 2018. This is good because Greensboro always has a horrible atmosphere and it will be so much more sophisticated in New York City. Kidding. Seriously, I think it makes sense to move the ACC Tournament from year to year (keeping it in Greensboro a plurality of the time since a plurality of the teams can drive there easily). The championship game will also be moved back to primetime Saturday night. I have my concerns about Brooklyn, but I think there are enough Duke and Syracuse fans from the area to help fill the stands as the weekend progresses. That does require that one or both of those schools advances, but it’s a fair bet that both will be good under their current coaches. Long story short: the ACC should not move the tournament permanently to New York City (or anywhere else). Expect more on this from me later.
  2. Syracuse Post Standard: All hail Patrick Stevens! He killed bracketology this year as the only analyst I know who predicted all 68 teams (NC State threw everyone for a loop). The ACC got lucky getting the Wolfpack in (though having two one-seeds in the NIT would’ve been a slap in the face), and Virginia was favorably seeded on the top line. I’m very excited for Syracuse and Ohio State to cause the powers at be to lower the shot clock in hopes of increasing scoring. Though the real game to hope for is Duke – Iowa because Iowa is 1) underseeded, 2) likes to run, and 3) plays no defense. Basically, lots and lots of points.
  3. Fayetteville Observer: Good story on Stamey’s and it’s close ties to the ACC Tournament. If you haven’t been, you should probably go next time you’re in town. The barbecue is fantastic. Right down the road from the Greensboro Coliseum, the restaurant–which opened around the birth of the ACC–has become an ACC Tournament tradition for many. The iconic school flags hang (although they sold the Maryland flag to buy a Louisville one), the hushpuppies are hot, and the pork smoked good and slow.
  4. Charlottesville Daily Progress and Hampton Roads Daily Press: Good local takes on Virginia‘s ACC championship. The anecdote about Justin Anderson deferring to Akil Mitchell and Joe Harris says everything about this Virginia team. Everyone knows his role. And they don’t back down (at least not since the horrific beatdown in Knoxville). Coach K also offered good analysis in his post-game conference: “Brogdon’s a first-team, all-league player,” Krzyzewski said. “He’s steady, kind of unflappable and so strong mentally and physically. He and Harris … they’re two men. Those two and Mitchell give you three of the better players in the country all on one team.”
  5. Syracuse Post Standard: Sometimes the Selection Committee does something too good to be a coincident (or too bad, at least from Roy Williams’ perspective). But this, I can get down with. Both Tyler Ennis and his brother Dylan Ennis (who plays for Villanova) will be in the same sub-regional. That means friends and family can see both brothers without having to split like their parents last weekend for the conference tournaments. So props Ron Wellman and company. Even if it was an accident.
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NCAA Tournament Instareaction: ACC Teams

Posted by Lathan Wells on March 16th, 2014

Selection Sunday has now yielded a 2014 NCAA Tournament field, and the bracket is filled out. It’s time to analyze how the ACC teams fared in their quest to garner postseason success. Some teams seem to have an easier path than others, but it is March and nothing can be taken for granted. Some may be surprised that six ACC teams made the field, especially since Florida State was the presumed ACC team on the brink, but nonetheless the ACC tied for the second-most teams in the field behind the Big 12′s seven entrants. Here’s a look at the six ACC squads that were lucky enough to hear their names called, and what their NCAA Tournament might look like.

Virginia, #1 seed, East Region. The Cavaliers were rewarded (and justly so) for claiming the ACC regular season and tournament titles with a #1 seed in the East. They won’t have to travel far in the early stages, either, with the opening rounds in a familiar venue in Raleigh. After what should be an opening round win over Coastal Carolina, Virginia will have to tangle with either Memphis or George Washington. The Cavaliers are one of the few teams in the country that always controls the tempo, so a match-up with a running team like the Tigers won’t faze them a bit. Tony Bennett’s team has a good shot of advancing to the Final Four if it can survive a potential Sweet Sixteen match-up with a suddenly-healthy #4 seed Michigan State. Villanova as the #2 seed is not as potent as other regions’ second seeds, so the Cavaliers have a very realistic shot of ending up in Arlington.

Virginia's dominance of the ACC regular and postseason helped them grab a number one seed (usatoday)

Duke, #3 seed, Midwest Region. Duke also gets the favorable early draw of playing in Raleigh, opening with Mercer. The Blue Devils’ region arguably has the most questionable top seed in Wichita State, but a potential UMass meeting in the second game could be tricky. Duke’s NCAA hopes are always pinned on how they shoot from distance, and if they’re on they can beat anyone. If they’re off, Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood have to make plays to rescue the team. The region’s #2 seed, Michigan, already tussled with Duke earlier in the year and fell short, so that should also bolster Mike Kzryzewski’s outlook. Nevertheless, Louisville lurks in the Midwest with a head-scratching #4 seed, so Duke is not without a test at every turn in its quest to bring glory back home to Durham for the fifth time.

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2014 ACC Tournament Superlatives

Posted by Brad Jenkins & Matt Patton on March 16th, 2014

ACC Microsite writers Matt Patton and Brad Jenkins will be reporting live from Greensboro at the 2014 ACC Tournament throughout the week. Based on our observations from the entire tournament here are our choices for the best of the best, on and off the court.

All ACC Tournament Team

  • Joe Harris, Virginia
  • Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
  • Jabari Parker, Duke
  • Talib Zanna, Pittsburgh
  • T.J. Warren, N.C. State

ACC Superlatives

Clemson' Rod Hall Loses The Ball in Attempt to Upset Duke at the Buzzer. (Photo: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports)

Clemson’ Rod Hall Loses The Ball in Attempt to Upset Duke at the Buzzer.
(Photo: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports)

  • Tournament co-MVP’s – Harris and Brogdon. On a team as balanced and unselfish as Virginia, its hard to just pick one guy.
  • Best Defensive Player – Akil Mitchell, Virginia. In the championship game, Mitchell harassed Parker into 15 missed shots, and collected 11 defensive rebounds.
  • Craziest Game – #5 Pittsburgh 80, #5 North Carolina 75 in Friday’s Quarter-Finals. Pittsburgh raced out to an 18 point lead in the first half before a North Carolina rallied to within 10 at the half. The second half almost became one of the all-time tournament comebacks. Pittsburgh led by 16 with 4:30 to go, but then the Tar Heels turned up the defensive pressure and closed to within 3 with 12 seconds left before the Panthers held on. During the furious comeback, the North Carolina fans came alive and almost pulled their team all the way back.
  • Most Intense Moment – Clemson’s Rod Hall’s mad dash at the end of the Tigers’ Quarterfinal game with Duke. The last play of the day Friday was the most dramatic moment of the tournament. With four seconds left and his team trailing by one, Hall drove towards the lane, split two defenders, had the ball poked away and hit the floor, leaving most of the remaining folks in the arena screaming for a foul call that never came. Meanwhile, Duke and its fans exhaled deeply, knowing how close they came to an early exit.
  • Best Individual Game - Talib Zanna, Pittsburgh in the above game with North Carolina. Zanna was a dominant force inside and the key to the Panthers win, finishing with 19 points and 21 rebounds, which included 10 on the offensive glass. That 21 rebound total ties the senior Zanna for third-most in an ACC Tournament game.

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Rushed Reactions: #6 Virginia 72, #7 Duke 63

Posted by Matt Patton & Brad Jenkins on March 16th, 2014

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Three Key Takeaways.

Virginia claimed the ACC crown. (credit: Robert Willett / Raleigh News & Observer)

Virginia claimed the ACC crown. (credit: Robert Willett / Raleigh News & Observer)

  1. Virginia was the better team. They took all of Duke’s shots and punched right back. They dominated stretches with rebounding and defense. It took a miracle stretch by Jabari Parker to keep Duke in the game. Virginia’s balance and defensive strength (along with winning the regular season and tournament) will make people think of Miami last season. Virginia’s constant off-ball screens on offense kept Duke defenders out of sync the whole game, which led to all of the fouls. Virginia has three lock-down defenders in Joe HarrisMalcolm Brogdon and Akil Mitchell. That’s enough to slow every team down. Also while the Cavaliers only got credit for five blocks, it felt like more than ten (while only committing 15 fouls). Last but not least, Virginia is going to be a nightmare draw in the NCAA Tournament. This is an impossible team to prepare for–especially on short rest. They may go cold and make an early exit, but don’t say I didn’t warn you when they are in Arlington.
  2. Jabari Parker solidified his high lottery status. He had a couple of just ridiculous buckets (a step-back three and a transition dunk to name two), and an unstoppable stretch while Mitchell was on the bench. Don’t be fooled by his inefficient stat line. Parker was the best offensive player on the floor. After the game, Coach K pointed out that Parker has a ways to go: “Part of his development is, when he makes those [NBA] moves, is to finish, get fouled, not get fouled, you know what I mean. [...] His should be a combination.”
  3. This was likely a battle for a spot in the East Regional. This loss may hurt Duke even more soon. I don’t think the Blue Devils ever had a shot at a top seed (take away the loss to Wake Forest and it’s a different story), but they definitely had a shot to play through Raleigh and then New York City. Now? Who knows. It’s still possible, but Virginia definitely put themselves in the driver’s seat for a nice location and a two-seed (likely with a very favorable one to boot).

Player of the game: Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia. Still snubbed. Yeah, he was named all-tournament, but he made a really strong case to complete Wally Walker snub to most valuable player transition. Brogdon locked down Rodney Hood for much of the game. He also stepped up when Virginia needed a bucket, be it a field goal or a free throw. Lamar Patterson started the year imitating Oscar Robertson, but it was Brogdon who finished as the most versatile offensive player. The difference was even more obvious when you take defense into account.

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ACC Championship Preview: #6 Virginia vs. #7 Duke

Posted by Brad Jenkins & Matt Patton on March 16th, 2014

It’s the game that we all expected when the ACC Tournament brackets came out last weekend. Duke vs. Virginia. Let’s preview the ACC Championship game by answering the key questions headed into this one in Greensboro.

Joe Harris gets a second shot against Duke this season with an ACC title on the line (credit: Geoff Burke/USA Today).

Joe Harris gets a second shot against Duke this season with an ACC title on the line (credit: Geoff Burke/USA Today).

1. Can Virginia’s balanced scoring offset the star power of Duke’s Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood?

Yes and no. The Cavaliers can’t get in a shootout, but I don’t think they’ll try. Virginia is an experienced team that plays to its strengths. I’ll be very surprised if Duke can push them out of their comfort zone. That said, if Hood and Parker are both firing on all cylinders, I’m not sure how Virginia will put up enough points to win. Look for them to try to make Parker into a jump shooter or to force things against multiple defenders since he’s struggled passing out of double teams when he gets head full of steam. Hood is a little more difficult to contain (since he’s really a second option), but I expect to see a lot of Justin Anderson hounding him. Neither of these teams will quite be at 100 percent, playing their third game in three days, but I think that favors the more balanced team.

2. Duke hasn’t been hitting as many threes lately. Who do you expect to help keep the offense going if shots aren’t falling?

If the outside jumpers aren’t falling — and by playing the third straight grueling game in as many days, there’s a good chance they don’t — then Duke will have to rely on its two future NBA forwards to make plays. Jabari Parker makes plays that are almost unstoppable, even by great defenses like Virginia’s, so he figures to be the best candidate. Rodney Hood’s conditioning will be tested after chasing T.J. Warren all over the court yesterday. Rasheed Sulaimon has had success in the tournament with his penetration, so he may also try to create scoring chances that way.

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