With less than 10 weeks left until Selection Sunday, we can begin to look at how each team is addressing their weaknesses that could become a roadblock on their way to winning a national title in March. The biggest concern with Michigan State was their ability to consistently generate offense, specifically, whether they have a go-to guy scorer that isn’t afraid to carry them over the last five minutes of the game. The contenders usually have one such player, which is why Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke are still considered to be a force in March because Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, and Jabari Parker can manufacture points regardless of double teams against formidable competition. During the preseason, Gary Harris was tagged to be that guy for Michigan State, and he is making a strong case for his ability to lead the Spartans in March based on his performance over the past two weeks.

Gary Harris has averaged 19 PPG over the last five games. (Getty)

Harris has averaged 19 PPG during January, but more importantly, he has shown that he can score without just relying on the three-pointer. He has one of the prettiest looking jumpers from beyond the arc, but he hasn’t been very consistent, as indicated by a so-so 32% shooting. However, when his shot doesn’t fall, he has shown the maturity to move into the mid-range and leverage his jumper from the elbow around the free-throw line in the half-court. Against a hungry Illini team on Saturday night, Harris drilled a couple of clutch shots off the pick-and-roll from the mid-range. These types of shots will be available to him as long as he doesn’t settle for the three because the Spartans have a decent frontcourt that can run pull up from the mid-range in case the defender forgets to switch away from Harris. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Terone and Ronnie Johnson don’t necessarily receive the glare of a national spotlight like the Harrison twins from Kentucky, but they are a formidable combination of brothers themselves. While Terone has averaged 13.4 PPG to help the Boilermakers with the offense, Ronnie has averaged 3.7 APG to set the tone in the half-court. The brothers have come through in the clutch lately, loggin recent wins over Illinois and Penn State. After the win over the Nittany Lions, older brother Terone said of his younger sibling, “But at the end of the game, he made a big steal for us, which we thought was great and we congratulate him for that.” With a 13-5 overall record, it is uncertain if the Boilers have the juice to make the NCAA Tournament, but they will need the brothers to win a couple of road games if they hope to be considered by the committee in March.
2. Sometimes the certainty of not having your best player around can benefit a team in a positive way. With Mitch McGary sidelined for at least a few more weeks, the Wolverines may have finally found their identity, now clearly under the leadership of sophomore Nik Stauskas. Stauskas went off for 23 points over Wisconsin, nailing a pull-up three to win the game on the road in Madison. With the win, John Beilein’s squad now sits at the top of the Big Ten with a perfect 5-0 record, but more importantly, the Wolverines are clicking on the offensive end. Even Bo Ryan was impressed with the sophomore’s performance when he said: “Any time a guy steps back like that, you try to cover ground like that with that quick a release? … That step-back’s so fast and that release is so fast, you’re not going to (defend it). He’s quick. He’s like a cat.”
3. Speaking of injuries helping a team improve, Adreian Payne’s sore foot is giving an opportunity for Matt Costello to take advantage of additional playing time and gain confidence in his offensive game. With Payne out for three games, Costello has been actively involved in the half-court, specifically running the pick-and-roll with Gary Harris. Harris was on fire from the field against Illinois on Saturday night, scoring 23 points with most of them coming off the pick-and-roll with Costello. Costello chipped in with eight points and showed off his excellent jumper away from the hoop. These minutes will help Tom Izzo once Payne comes back because Costello’s confidence will be very high based on his performances while Payne was out.
4. When Wisconsin was still unbeaten, we were raving about their offensive versatility, and specifically the fact that all five of their starters could shoot from the perimeter and score with anybody. But we may have slightly overlooked some of their defensive flaws and the two losses last week showed why they are not a lock to win the conference title. During both games, the Baddgers experienced numerous defensive breakdowns, which could haunt them over the next few weeks when they face Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. Michigan’s Nik Stauskas had a field day against their backcourt with 23 points, and during the late minutes against Indiana, Yogi Ferrell and Stanford Robinson found their way into the paint rather easily against the porous Wisconsin defense.
5. Indiana‘s loss to Northwestern at home on Saturday is a primary example of a “letdown game.” Just a few days after their fans rushed the court because they ended Wisconsin’s unbeaten season, the Hoosiers sleptwalked for most of the game against the Wildcats. They shot a dismal 25 percent from the field instead of relying on Noah Vonleh to take them to a win. Vonleh ended up with 17 points, but he should have taken more shots because the IU backcourt of Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey shot an icy 3-of-21 from the field. Inconsistent shooting has been a concern for the Hoosiers, but they need to recognize that Vonleh is good enough to carry the team in the paint if their long-range shooting is off on a given night.

A couple of weeks back we broke down the top five freshmen in the B1G up to that point. We also listed an honorable mention of sorts including six more first-year players who could play their way onto this list. Seemingly out of nowhere, a new freshman beyond those initial 11 has crashed on to the conference landscape by coming off the Michigan State bench and making three-pointers at a torrid pace. Redshirt freshman Kenny Kaminski has overcome injuries and inconsistency to become the hottest outside shooter in the league right now, helping the Spartans start off league play with a flawless 4-0 record. With personnel issues related to injury and illness hampering Sparty’s ability to play a whole game with an intact roster, Kaminsky has become that much more important.

Kenny Kaminski has been a key shooter off the bench for Michigan State (J.Scott Park, Mlive.com).

Let me preface this by saying that if you believe that Kaminski can maintain his 62.5 percent shooting from behind the arc, and a 79.0% eFG, you can just go ahead and pencil in Michigan State as your national champion. His hot shooting is not sustainable at this level, but it helped the team earn two very important wins when at less than full strength. Kaminski went 4-of-4 in the first 20 minutes against the Gophers, knocking down every open triple that he took. He also went 3-of-4 in the Ohio State game a week ago. Given the recent struggles of Travis Trice, Kaminski has become the go-to shooter off the bench, allowing point guard Keith Appling to draw the defense to kick it out to a wide open shooter capable of making defenses pay.

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1. Just when it appeared that Branden Dawson is finally healthy and ready to contribute consistently for the Spartans, he seems to have a few health issues over the past two games. Tom Izzo said, “There’s something bothering him. He hasn’t been that way in a month and he’s been really, really, really, for the whole year he’s been pretty good. Despite averaging a double-double for most of the season, Dawson was a non-factor over the weekend when the host Spartans beat the Gophers in overtime. The top-10 ranked squad can’t afford any more injuries, especially with Adreian Payne sitting out the last game with a sore foot. Back to Dawson, regardless of the immediate concerns to his team, we can only hope that the tests don’t show anything negative because he has been plagued with injuries over the last year and half or so.
2. With Mitch McGary sidelined indefinitely, the other Michigan sophomores need to contribute more than expected if the Wolverines hope to contend for the Big Ten title. Nik Stauskas is already doing his part by averaging 17.4 PPG, but Glenn Robinson III has been inconsistent until the last few weeks. Over the last seven games, Robinson has averaged 16.3 PPG, living up to his billing of a potential pick in next year’s NBA lottery. John Beilein said, “You just watch what he’s going to do here as he get more comfortable with the role we want him to play.” Now if Derrick Walton can take care of the ball and chip in 13 PPG consistently, the Wolverines may beat the top teams such as Michigan State or Wisconsin, especially at home.
3. If losing two players to the NBA – Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller – wasn’t tough enough for your offense, it could be worse if the rotation is unclear two months into the season. Tom Crean had his work cut out, but the rotations still appear to be uncertain and it may not helping the Hoosiers as they struggled to beat Penn State on the road over the weekend. When asked about this topic, Crean responded, “We have a chance to be deep. What we’re imploring is to have that concentration and focus when you’re sitting out so when you do go in you’re absolutely prepared.” Noah Vonleh and Yogi Ferrell have been and will continue to be fixtures in the offense, but Crean needs a consistent third scoring option, whether it may be Will Sheehey or Jeremy Hollowell.
4. Emotions of a college basketball fan can be very volatile during a close game, especially if the team doesn’t have a consistent scoring option. Buckeyes fans see the talent of LaQuinton Ross when he shoots three-pointers with ease of the pick-and-rolls, but at the same time, worry when he tries to dribble in traffic and turn the ball over in the half-court. OSU’s 84-74 loss to Iowa on Sunday was an excellent example of the “give and take” of Ross’ game. He scored 22 points in the game, but also turned the ball over three times over the last five minutes, helping Iowa pick up easy baskets in transition. Nonetheless, it is still positive that Ross bounced back after a tough game – just five points – against Michigan State earlier in the week.
5. Richard Pitino appears to get close to winning a big game within the conference, but could still be far from closing crucial games. Against Michigan, his Gophers couldn’t close the last two minutes, which resulted in a loss. Similarly, they couldn’t avoid the Spartans from staging a comeback in East Lansing over the weekend. However, his players appear to be gaining confidence with every game and Malik Smith proved on Saturday that he could be a legit scoring threat, specifically from the perimeter. Smith was 5-of-10 from beyond the arc and he made two clutch shots during the last two minutes in a hostile environment.

One of the best games of the Big Ten weekend slate should be in East Lansing this afternoon. Minnesota (13-3, 2-1) takes on Michigan State (14-1, 3-0) in a game that pits a team looking to climb into the the top half of the league against a team looking to get healthy and find some consistency on its way to a national title. RTC Big Ten microsite columnists Brendan Brody and Alex Moscoso decided to take a look at some key questions heading into this interesting match-up.

Andre Hollins needs a big game for Minnesota to pull off an upset in East Lansing.

1. Both teams are relatively equal nationally with Minnesota ranking 44th in offensive rebounding rate, and Michigan State checking in at 45th in defensive rebounding. Who wins the battle of the boards?

Alex Moscoso: For once, I’m going to disregard the numbers and predict that Michigan State wins the rebounding battle under its own basket. When it comes to rebounding, I’m not betting against Tom Izzo, especially when the Spartans are at home. While Michigan State has Adreian Payne as its only consistent low-post presence, wings Branden Dawson and Denzel Valentine have stepped up and are accounting for 5.7 and 4.3 defensive rebounds per game, respectively, as well. This should work to their advantage against Minnesota, who shoots a ton of threes (12th in the nation in attempts), and allow them to go after long rebounds. Add to the fact that Payne’s ankle is getting healthier every day, and I think Sparty wins the battle of the boards in this game.

Brendan Brody: Rebounding for Minnesota starts and ends with Elliott Eliason. He’s been pivotal in the Gophers’ efforts on the glass, and with Payne still struggling with some foot issues, look for Eiliason to continue to clean up Minnesota’s misses at a high level. He’s second in the league in grabbing offensive rebounds (13.5%), and he along with Maurice Walker will enable the Gophers to get second-chance opportunities if the Gophers aren’t hitting from deep.

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1. Much like fellow freshman Nigel Hayes, Ohio State’s Marc Loving has the advantage of coming into a situation where he can blend in on a top-5 team with plenty of upperclassmen. Loving has been getting more extended looks from Thad Matta in terms of playing time, and has been taking advantage of the opportunity. Loving stayed on the floor through much of the Buckeyes’ furious comeback the other night against Michigan State over veterans LaQuinton Ross and Lenzelle Smith Jr. Loving has averaged 11.5 points per game in his last two, and is part of the reason why Matta is taking advantage of having a deeper bench then in previous years.
2. Tom Izzo really still doesn’t know what to think after the Spartans held off Ohio State on Tuesday night. “We survived, great teams have to survive. I think we’re a damn good team. But I don’t know where we are right now,” stated the coach. Injuries have continued to hamper the team, as seniors Adreian Payne and Keith Appling both battled lingering foot problems and muscle cramps respectively. This win could be the type of close-call victory that makes championship-caliber teams tougher, or it could be a sign that this preseason national championship contender will struggle to hit its ceiling because of injury problems.
3. Illinois made their first appearance of the season in the top 25 this week, but it might be a short stay after they were thoroughly dismantled by Wisconsin on Wednesday night in Madison. The team really is ahead of schedule in the John Groce tenure however, as they still sit at 13-3. Perspective is needed as this unit that features a bench filled with freshman, and two transfers in their starting five has done a really good job just getting to the level they’re at right now. The Illini should still make the NCAA Tournament, but the game on Wednesday showed that they still have a ways to go to get back to the upper level of the conference.
4. John Beilein deserve a tremendous amount of credit for honoring the letter of intent signed by Austin Hatch. Hatch survived two plane crashes and was in a coma for two months. He made his triumphant return to the court recently at his new high school in Los Angeles. And in Hollywood fashion, he drilled his first shot, causing his team to rush the court to congratulate him. Whether or not Hatch ever has an impact on the floor for Michigan, his story should be told to everyone.
5. Wisconsin continued to roll on Wednesday night, and in the process secured their place in the history books. They officially have now gotten off to the best start in school history with their 16-0 mark. Despite the total curb-stomping they put on the Illini, Bo Ryan still wasn’t pleased with the fact that Illinois grabbed 25 offensive rebounds. This illustrates part of the reason why this program under Ryan consistently overachieves. There isn’t any danger of this, or any of his teams getting caught up in the hype or starting to enjoy their press clippings too much. Ryan will make sure they stayed motivated and focused on the fact that there is still a lot of basketball left to be played this season.

Each week throughout the season, RTC columnist Brian Otskey (@botskey) will run down his observations from the previous week of college basketball. 

Baylor Fails To Live Up To The Hype

When I saw the national polls come out this week I was stunned to see Baylor ranked No. 7. Yes, the Bears were 12-1 heading into last night’s Big 12 opener at Iowa State, but I was surprised more pollsters were not able to see through their smoke and mirrors. I rated Baylor No. 19 in the latest RTC Top 25 and thought it was generous given its resume. Of the team’s 12 wins, just three have been quality: Two came in Dallas against Colorado and Kentucky (certainly very fine wins) and one in Maui against Dayton. In other words, Baylor had yet to beat a great team away from home and last night’s game was actually its first true road contest of the season. Scott Drew’s team didn’t exactly validate its lofty ranking after being torched in the second half at Hilton Coliseum last night. BU’s interior defense, normally a strength, was horrendous against the Cyclones, particularly in transition. It almost seems as if Baylor was unprepared for Iowa State’s up-tempo style of basketball. Baylor is not a bad team by any stretch but there just isn’t enough consistency from game to game to warrant such a high ranking. The Bears do a lot of things well and a handful of things poorly. That keeps their ceiling low, despite a ton of talent on the roster.

Kenny Chery and Baylor have some shortcomings to address

Iowa State is For Real, But Just How Good are the Cyclones?

Speaking of Iowa State, how about the job Fred Hoiberg has done in Ames? In only his fourth year he has made his alma mater relevant in leading it to a top 10 ranking this week. The Cyclones are legitimate and DeAndre Kane is a big reason why. The Marshall transfer is making the most of his one year in Ames as one of the country’s best all-around players. After a season-high 30 points against Baylor last night, Kane seems to be getting even better. Hoiberg really can’t ask for much more from a senior who can run the team, rebound and score efficiently. Iowa State is obviously terrific at home but I would like to see this team perform on the road against better competition before I fully buy in. Don’t get me wrong, the Cyclones are a sure fire top 20 team in my view. However, their toughest road test to date was against a 9-7 BYU team in Provo. With five of their next nine games on the road, the Cyclones will be challenged in a big way against the likes of Kansas and Oklahoma State, as well as upstarts Texas and Oklahoma. While I believe Iowa State is very good, we will know a heck of a lot more about it when the calendar flips to February.

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The Big Ten already gave us a Top 25 match-up over the weekend, but tonight it rewards us with a top five game, as No. 3 Ohio State travels to No. 5 Michigan State for a 9:00 PM tip at the Breslin Center. Both teams started the conference slate at 2-0 and this game could be instrumental in how the race eventually shakes out. This is especially important when you consider that both of these teams will play Wisconsin only once at the Kohl Center (Bo Ryan thanks the schedule-makers), so any loss is huge. To get ready for the Big Ten’s biggest game of the year so far, Big Ten microsite writers Deepak Jayanti and Jonathan Batuello got together to answer three key questions going into the game.

Adreian Payne will be key inside for the Spartans as they host Ohio State in the biggest game of the young Big Ten season tonight (AP Photo/Al Goldis).

1. Michigan State likes to get into transition while Ohio State would prefer to win with its defense. So, who sets and controls the pace in this game?

• Deepak Jayanti: Last season, the average number of possessions over the three games between these two teams was 60. The average number of possessions per game in Division I basketball was 65.1, so clearly things tend to slow down when these two defensive-minded teams face off. The Buckeyes’ depth at the guard position will create issues for Michigan State’s Keith Appling because there will be fresh legs guarding him throughout and preventing him from picking up the tempo in transition. Between Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott and Sam Thompson, Thad Matta will rotate his guards against the Michigan State backcourt to help dictate the overall tempo. Without those easy transition baskets, Appling will have to beat Craft off the dribble in the half-court which could be challenging and give an advantage to Ohio State in this game.
• Jonathan Batuello: Michigan State would love to have its guards get out on the break to limit Ohio State’s defense getting set, but it’s likely that this game will slow down. The biggest reason for this is that both teams play smart offensive basketball that leads to highly efficient scoring. It is much more challenging for teams to get out in transition when your opponent converts, and Ohio State boasts an effective field goal percent of 53.7 percent (45th nationally) and Michigan State is even better at 55.2 percent (18th). For Sparty to push tempo it needs turnovers and missed shots, and Ohio State doesn’t commit many miscues (approximately 10 per game) nor have many ice cold shooting nights. Therefore, expect Michigan State to focus on winning the game using smart possessions instead of trying to create extra ones.

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1. Most people have been surprised with exactly how strong of a start Wisconsin has had this season. It’s even has some wonder if this could be the best Bo Ryan-led squad to ever come out of Madison. Well, this team’s adaptability certainly makes it a strong candidate to go further than any other one. It’s normal for Ryan’s Wisconsin teams to win in low-scoring, grind-it-out type of games, but this year’s Badgers are winning those and high-scoring affairs. Wisconsin has won while scoring in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, and 100s (note to other teams: force a game in the 90s apparently). With a group of players that can play all over the floor, this team certainly has the talent level and ability to match-up with anyone and potentially make a deep run in March.
2. Iowa was on a lot of people’s radars as a team to watch this season in the Big Ten, but it hasn’t just been its slew of starters that are making that come to fruition. It’s been Iowa’s bench and depth that have really been a difference maker for the team. It’s reserves are ranked third nationally in scoring and blocked shots and first in rebounding. It’s impressive stats for the back-ups that the Hawkeyes will need to continue to be successful in Big Ten play. Some of the top teams (read: Michigan State) are relatively thin so Iowa will have an advantage in terms of depth where it can potentially wear teams down.
3. Tom Izzo has had plenty of worries these past few weeks. Namely, the injury report and who to play. Travis Trice and Gary Harris have both been held out this week with injuries, with no exact timetable for their returns. This has put a lot of pressure on Izzo to tinker and come up with varying line-ups that can be successful. Most stressful for the Spartans is that its lack of depth puts a bigger impetus on getting the starters and key reserves back quickly. With a match-up against Texas and the Big Ten season looming, how quickly they return will be critical to the team’s success.
4. It’s tough to knock an undefeated team, but sometimes context needs to come into play. For Ohio State, its non-conference schedule has it ranked in the bottom third for toughness, so the question arises if the Buckeyes are that good or simply a byproduct of a weak schedule? The team did have what appeared to be a challenging road game at Marquette, but the Golden Eagles have fallen quickly since the early part of the season. Still, it’s tough to knock Ohio State when it’s won every game dominantly. It can only play the team’s on its schedule and it is handling them well. For those still doubting Ohio State, the conference season is just around the corner, where everyone will find out if its early record is because of a weak schedule or a talented team.
5. With a week between games, Michigan coach John Beilein took a visit to a high-priority recruit this week. He ventured to Ohio to check on Luke Kennard, a 6′ 5″ shooting guard who is averaging just more than 40 points a game this high school season. Michigan made an offer to the five-star prospect this summer, the first for a Class of 2015 player from the Wolverines. Kennard is obviously a high-volume scorer and a top priority for Beilein and his staff. Being involved early in his recruitment certainly helps, too, as Kennard also has offers from Duke, North Carolina and just about every other Big Ten school.

Author’s note: This analysis was performed on Sunday night, December 15, and does not include Monday’s Northwestern game against Mississippi Valley State.

Welcome to the third edition of our Big Ten non-conference analysis.  By now, you should be familiar with how we’re measuring teams’ performances; but if not, please re-read our first post describing the methodology. In short, we’re comparing how Big Ten teams have performed against their preseason expectations according to KenPom. Since our last analysis two weeks ago, the Big Ten/ACC challenge has come and gone, and we’ve had some major interconference match-ups. Unfortunately, Big Ten teams have mostly ended up on the losing side of these games, especially last weekend as Iowa State outlasted Iowa, Arizona beat Michigan, Notre Dame shocked Indiana, and Butler held off Purdue. To see how these losses have shaken things up from the expectations viewpoint, see the updated performance table below.

Here are our two main takeaways:

• Wisconsin has improved its long-term season outlook the most and has also been the most consistent team in the Big Ten.Things are murky at the top of the league. Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan all have questions surrounding them or outright blemishes on their early season resumes. But the Badgers have been the league’s lone shining star by going undefeated, a record that includes seven wins against the RPI Top 100 (2-0 against the Top 50), more than any other team in the country. Furthermore, according to our analysis, Wisconsin has only underperformed in one game the entire season. Not only have they played well throughout, but they’ve been consistent in their efforts which is shown by their league-low 5.1 standard deviation (basically measuring variability in performances). Finally, Bo Ryan’s team’s long-term outlook has improved as they’re now expected to win seven games more than originally thought, which includes projected wins against Florida, at Indiana, at Minnesota, at Purdue, Ohio State, at Illinois and at Michigan State. As of right now, the Badgers are the class of the league. Read the rest of this entry »