The last week of regular season action is here.  The talk about bubbles popping, seeding and rotations will continue to grow over the next few weeks.  Among the conference tournaments, the Big East Tournament is generally known to be the toughest to predict, but the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis this season might be just as good or maybe even better.  Five teams appear to be locks for the NCAAs at this point — Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Indiana.  There are at least three other teams still in the hunt — Northwestern, Minnesota and Purdue.  Factor in a surging Iowa team to the teams on the bubble and the result is bound to produce some upsets in Indy during the second week of March.  Certain coaches have exceeded expectations this season (John Beilein), while some may have their job in jeopardy (Bruce Weber).  Let’s examine which coaches (in no particular order) have the most to prove over the next four weeks, not just to finish conference play but also beyond.

Bill Carmody is making a strong push to get Northwestern into the NCAA Tournament

1. Bill Carmody – Carmody deserves a lot of credit for keeping his players’ confidence up after a demoralizing overtime loss to Michigan earlier this week.  The Wildcats were shell-shocked in the overtime period as Michigan drained three shots from long range to seal the deal.  But they are still in the hunt for an NCAA bid after their nail-biting win at State College over Penn State on Saturday.  John Shurna got his coach’s message about a lack of leadership and delivered a 23-point performance on the road.  Carmody will not have a go-to scorer like Shurna next year, so this year might be his best shot to lock in that NCAA Tournament appearance that has eluded the program for so long.  Drew Crawford will lead in Shurna’s absense but his supporting crew will be relatively younger, so the Wildcats may be back into semi-rebuilding mode again in 2012-13. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Somewhat unbelievably, the second-to-last regular season Saturday is upon us. Plenty of big time and bubble games are on the schedule as the stretch run really heats up.

#3 Missouri @ #4 Kansas – 4:00 PM EST Saturday on CBS (*****)

• The final Border War game promises to be another terrific display of basketball between two top five teams that really don’t care for one another. Missouri won the first meeting between these teams, but to do it again it will have to defend at a higher level. Both teams shot over 50% at Mizzou Arena three weeks ago, but Kansas has been the better defensive team all season long. Now playing at home in virtually impenetrable Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks have to like their chances in this one. Kansas has a huge rebounding and size advantage in the paint with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey going up against Ricardo Ratliffe. While Ratliffe is a great finisher around the bucket, he was held to six points in the first meeting, limited by foul trouble in only 20 minutes of action. Kansas can neutralize Ratliffe and force Missouri to make shots. Missouri hit 10 threes in the first meeting, led by Marcus Denmon’s six. Kansas will have to tighten up a three point defense that ranks #173 nationally in order to prevent that from happening again.
  

  Can Denmon & The Tigers Rebound?

• Denmon’s 29-point effort against Kansas on February 4 lifted him out of a slump and his high level of play has continued since then. Denmon and Kim English have to make shots or else Kansas will have a significant edge in this game. The Jayhawks should be dominant inside with Robinson going against Ratliffe with Withey by his side. Kansas is one of the best teams in the nation in two point percentage. Defensively, Bill Self has to be worried about the three point line. While Kansas is a very efficient defensive team, they can be beaten from the arc. Missouri is certainly a team capable of doing that as it moves the ball well and has a multitude of deep threats lining the perimeter. Frank Haith needs a good game at point guard out of Phil Pressey, otherwise Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor could take over the game quickly as they did against Baylor at the Phog. Taylor has had an outstanding senior season but is vulnerable to turnovers. Look for Missouri to target him defensively in order to prevent him from getting into a rhythm and setting up the Jayhawk offense.
•  The big question mark here is can Missouri defend at a high level against an elite opponent on the road? The Tigers are last in the Big 12 in three point defense and their overall efficiency rating leaves a lot to be desired. Kansas is going to get its points inside but is not a particularly great outside shooting team. However, Taylor poses a big threat and must be held in check if Missouri is going to beat Kansas in a place where almost nobody wins. Until proven otherwise, we can’t pick against the Jayhawks in such an emotionally charged game as this one.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ohio State fans are used to top-15 recruiting classes coming through Columbus every season.

Last season was no different as Thad Matta brought in a top-10 recruiting class featuring three dynamic players – Jared Sullinger, Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Deshaun Thomas.

Sullinger has not disappointed and continues to lead Thad Matta’s program towards a possible Final Four appearance. Senior guard, William Buford is extremely reliable on the perimeter and Aaron Craft is a defensive menace. But the main x-factor on this squad is Deshaun Thomas.

When Thomas shines on the offensive end, the Ohio State offense is unstoppable. Currently, Thomas averages 14.3 points per game despite playing only 28.7 minutes per game. He can score quickly, but a deeper look into his offensive game indicates that his moves can be one-dimensional. Despite having the essential tools to be an offensive force, Thomas still holds back.  Consistency is an issue, especially during the big games. For instance, he shot 2-of-12 against Michigan State this weekend from the field and finished with a disappointing eight points.

Let’s review specific aspects of his current game and a few changes that could raise his game to the next level:

Deshaun Thomas can score with the best of them.

Predictable Scouting Report

More often than not, Thomas can be found hovering around the baseline during Ohio State’s offensive sets. He shoots a very effective 60% from mid-range, but he relies on the jumper too much. When the initial look at the basket is taken away, Thomas will take a dribble towards the basket, but still pull up for a shot rather than drive all the way.

Against Michigan State, his first four shot attempts of the game came from the corner. Thad Matta needs him to do more than just shoot, because he already has guards who provide that dimension to the offense – Buford and Smith Jr. Both of them shoot a reliable percentage from the field (45% in Buford’s case and 52% of Smith Jr.’s mid-range shots are successful).

Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Plenty of top 25 games are on Saturday’s slate while conference races heat up and bubble teams look for key wins.

#20 Virginia at #5 North Carolina – 1:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

• Coming off the crushing home loss to Duke on Wednesday, how will the Tar Heels respond? Without P.J. Hairston (sore foot) in the lineup, things could get a little dicey for #5 UNC. Hairston’s absence severely limits Carolina’s already thin back court depth. This game is going to be all about pace. Virginia plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation while North Carolina is one of the fastest teams. Point guard Kendall Marshallhas to get his team running as much as they can but we’ve seen time and time again how it is much easier to slow a game down than it is to speed it up. Wisconsin did this effectively at the Dean Dome earlier this season and you’re going to see the same blueprint from Virginia. The Cavaliers do a great job defending the three-point arc so UNC will likely get almost all of its points from inside or the free throw line. The Tar Heels are among the bottom five teams in America in terms of threes attempted to begin with and get 61.8% of their points from two-point range on average. Marshall and his teammates must be able to penetrate and move the ball well against Virginia’s strong half court defense.
  

  How Will Marshall & The Tar Heels Respond To Tuesday's Last Second Loss?

• Virginia’s biggest strengths are its defense and play of forward Mike Scott. At 60.3% from the field, Scott is among the best interior players in the nation, but will have to receive some help from a thin UVA front line in this game. Led by Tyler Zeller and John Henson, North Carolina has a ton of height up front that could give Scott a lot of problems. With Assane Sene still out with an ankle injury, the burden of helping Scott against UNC’s imposing front line falls to Akil Mitchell. His presence will be needed more on the defensive end to limit Zeller and Henson but Virginia is not going to win if Scott doesn’t score. Mitchell must be enough of a threat to prevent quick double teams on Scott, allowing him to maneuver around the UNC trees. Defensively, Virginia will look to pack its defense in and prevent Marshall from penetrating and dishing to Zeller and Henson. Making opponents take tough shots is something Virginia does really well and the Cavaliers will need to do it again. Harrison Barnes will likely oblige but Mitchell and Scott must force Zeller and Henson into shots outside the paint or falling away from the basket. If you allow those guys to receive the ball in the paint, you’re finished.
• Even though Virginia will likely slow the game down to a pace of its liking, the Cavaliers still must score the basketball. Sammy Zeglinski is five for his last 19 from the floor over the past three games and Jontel Evans has to have a good game at the point guard position. Virginia can’t turn the ball over and fuel the Carolina transition attack. It would also help if Joe Harris was knocking down triples, especially if Zeglinski can’t get out of his funk. Keep an eye on rebounding. North Carolina did a great job against Duke, showing some toughness on the glass that we haven’t always seen this year. Virginia is fourth nationally in defensive rebounding percentage but the Cavs really struggle on the offensive end. If the shots aren’t falling, Virginia will have a lot of one and done possessions if it can’t do a better job on the offensive glass. Good rebounding also helps a team control tempo and that’s exactly what Virginia needs to do in order to win this game on the road.

Read the rest of this entry »

Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter (@Bill_Hupp) for his thoughts on hoops, food, PR, various city river walks and life.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was:

• Halfway Home: As of this week, the regular season conference schedule is officially more than halfway done. And – with apologies to Dennis Green– teams are pretty much who we thought they were at the beginning of the season. Ohio State is the class of the conference; Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana are solid NCAA Tournament teams; Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern are fighting for seeding while Iowa, Nebraska, and Penn State pick up the rear. Of course, there have been some upsets and many compelling games, but now that the dust is starting to settle, the cream of the crop has risen to the top.
• Super Shurna: Leave it to a savvy veteran to catch fire at just the right time. With Northwestern’s hopes of making its first NCAA Tournament fading fast, John Shurna won co-Big Ten Player of the Week honors after he shot a blistering 71% from the field and averaged 26 points, four rebounds, and two steals to lead the injury-depleted Wildcats to a home win over Nebraska and a road victory over Illinois. Shurna is up there with Michigan State’s Draymond Green and Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor as the most valuable players to their respective teams.
• Close Calls: Illinois may be struggling at the moment, but they aren’t getting blown out. Each of the Illini’s last six games has been decided by five points or less. Unfortunately for the Orange Crush, they are just 2-4 in those games. Now they get to go on the road for four of their next five, starting with a doozy of a week with games at Indiana and at Michigan.

Will Draymond Green And The Spartans Snap Ohio State's Impressive Winning Streak In Columbus Saturday? (Al Goldis/AP)

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (21-3, 9-2) – With the amount of scoring options Thad Matta has, it’s really just a matter of if Ohio State wants to defend you. They didn’t do that against Indiana or Brandon Paul (though he was just on fire that day), and sure enough, they lost both games. Purdue gave the Scarlet-and-Gray all they could handle before OSU escaped with an 84-81 win. Buckeyes face an interesting test when Michigan State comes calling to Columbus on Saturday. A win would put them in a comfortable position to win the regular season crown.
2. Michigan State (18-5, 7-3) – All of East Lansing waited with baited breath to learn the results of Draymond Green’s MRI. After Green left the game with a minor knee injury, Michigan State struggled mightily in a 42-41 upset loss. They bounced back nicely against their in-state rivals, and sure enough, Green led them with 14 points and 16 boards. As good a season as State has had, it could be even better: Two of the three conference losses have been by a single point on the road. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

There are lots of good games on Saturday, highlighted by the big one in Columbia. Overall it’s a very nice day of hoops despite only a handful of truly terrific games.

#4 Kansas @ #6 Missouri – 9:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN (*****)

KU Needs Taylor To Be Good Tyshawn on Saturday (credit: Missourian)

• It doesn’t get much better than this. Two teams that don’t particularly like each other and a Border War rivalry with roots in the Civil War era. Missouri enters this game after surviving Texas in Austin on Monday. The Tigers have perhaps the best offense in the nation with incredible balance at the guard and wing positions. The question for Frank Haith and his team will be how effective Ricardo Ratliffe can be against Thomas Robinson inside. Ratliffe shoots almost exclusively in the paint and converts an astounding 75.1% of the time. However, Ratliffe will be going up against a front line of Robinson and Jeff Withey (3.1 BPG) in this one and needs to utilize his patented pick-and-roll more in this game. Ratliffe won’t have great success going one-on-one against either Robinson or Withey inside. Kansas’ defense ranks #4 in two-point percentage against but the Jayhawks are vulnerable to the three-ball. That’s where Missouri and snipers Marcus Denmon, Kim English and Michael Dixon can really take advantage of Bill Self’s team.
• The Jayhawk offense is essentially a two-man operation. While players like Withey and Travis Releford contribute offensively, Kansas’ fortunes depend on Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor. Taylor has taken his game to another level over the last month, highlighted by the back to back 28-point efforts against Iowa State and Baylor. The Kansas senior hasn’t shot under 40% from the floor since January 4 but will be the focus of Haith’s perimeter defense. Taylor is prone to turnovers and you can bet the Missouri guards will be ball hawking him all night long. If Taylor has a good ball handling night, Kansas will be in very good position to grab a road win. Robinson will get his points but it’s up to Taylor to put the Jayhawks in a position to win this game.
• It’s hard to pick against Missouri at home but if any team is going to win in Columbia, Kansas is the one. With ESPN in the house for the top two teams in the Big 12, this will be as charged an environment as you will see all year in college basketball. Despite Ratliffe’s stellar shooting percentage, Kansas should win the battle inside. The duo of Robinson and Withey is incredibly difficult to score against and Robinson is obviously a load on the offensive end as well. However, the friendly confines of Mizzou Arena and the Tigers’ perimeter attack and balance should be enough to put Missouri over the top.

#3 Ohio State @ #23 Wisconsin – 2:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN (****)

•  Ohio State can take command of the Big Ten with a win in this game. The Buckeyes hold a one game lead over Wisconsin in the loss column heading into Saturday’s matchup. If Ohio State has one weakness, it’s three-point shooting. Thad Matta is not going to beat Wisconsin, a team that shoots well over 20 threes a game, from outside. Matta has the best player on the floor in Jared Sullinger and he needs to use him early and often in order to set the tone. Ohio State is not going to turn Wisconsin over and fast break points will be at a minimum. The Buckeyes must execute their half court offense in order to win this game and the way to do that is through the big man in the middle.
• The Badgers have righted the ship with six straight wins but will need a big game out of their supporting cast if they are going to make it a seventh. Jared Berggren in particular must contain Sullinger on the low block or else Aaron Craft can feed him all day long with no consequences. Offensively, Wisconsin will run everything through Jordan Taylor but guys like Josh Gasser and Ben Brust need to be hot from deep in order for the Badgers to pull off the win. Wisconsin will be limited to one shot per possession most of the time as it loves to run the shot clock down and shoot threes. Ohio State ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage, mostly thanks to Sullinger.
• This game features the top two defensive teams in the nation in terms of efficiency. It’s likely to be a low scoring, low possession affair that comes down to the final minutes. Players like Ryan Evans for Wisconsin and Ohio State’s Lenzelle Smith could be the determining factors. The battle at the point guard position between Taylor and Craft will be phenomenal but the complementary players usually put a team over the top in matchups like these. We think that’s what will happen at the Kohl Center on Saturday.

1. Tom Izzo‘s affinity for football is well documented — he’s always joked about coaching football, even at Michigan State, and his best friend is former NFL head coach Steve Mariucci — but apparently his passion for other sports extends into the boxing ring, as well. James Dundee, the son of Angelo Dundee, who was Muhammad Ali‘s trainer that died Wednesday at the age of 90, said Angelo and Izzo met once. The two Italians hit it off so well that Angelo never missed a Michigan State game from then on. “He was sitting there saying, ‘That’s my man I-Zo,'” James Dundee said when he happened on his father watching the Spartans on Tuesday. “Once he met Izzo, Dad never missed another Michigan State game.”
2. If Bill Carmody is concerned about John Shurna‘s minutes, he has a funny way of showing it. The Wildcats played just six men in their 84-74 win against Nebraska on Thursday night, and Shurna played all 40 minutes in the game. Entering Thursday, the senior was averaging 39.2 minutes per Big Ten game, most amongst his conference counterparts. It was Northwestern‘s first win since a January 14 upset of Michigan State when, ironically, the Wildcats got double-digit scoring from four different players.
3. We’re 23 games into Indiana‘s season and the Indianapolis Star‘s Terry Hutchens still doesn’t really know what to make of this squad. The Hoosiers started the season 12-0 and 15-1 overall, leading many to believe that this team was peaking well ahead of time. Now they’ve fallen back down to earth and haven’t been able to win on the road, so some people are starting to talk about them as an NIT team. Hutchens says they’re more than likely NCAA Tournament-bound but, when such inconsistency is at play, it’s really too hard to make a reliable prediction.
4. Speaking of Indiana, the Hoosiers will have another chance to finally get a road win — the Hoosiers are 0-31 under Tom Crean in Big Ten games against everyone but Penn State — in an important in-state rivalry game on Saturday at Purdue. The two schools began playing each other in 1901, and there have been some remarkable shifts in power along the way. In the last few years, Tom Crean has struggled while trying to rebuild the IU program as Purdue has thrived under Matt Painter. This season, the time seems to have turned (Indiana is 17-5 and Purdue 15-7), but you can usually throw all of that out the window in a rivalry game like this one.
5. Ohio State has had absolutely no shortage of talented freshmen under Thad Matta. Is LaQuinton Ross next? The freshman was an ESPNU Top 75 recruit out of high school, but hasn’t had the opportunity to contribute immediately as players like Greg Oden or Jared Sullinger have under Matta. “I’m still part of a great team that has a chance to win the national title,” Ross told the Columbus Dispatch. “I’ve just got to be ready at all times because you never know when Coach Matta might call my number.” Matta has called Ross’ number in five of the Buckeyes’ nine Big Ten games  (he didn’t play at all during the non-conference slate) and, though he has never played more than seven minutes a game, he has scored in each of the last two games he’s appeared in.

1. There may be no team in the conference that ebbs and flows with its star the way Michigan State does with Draymond Green, and Spartan fans can not be feeling great about what they saw late Tuesday night. Not only did the Spartans drop a close one in Champaign, but they also lost Green indefinitely. It seems the senior do-everything forward injured his left knee in the final four minutes of the game (he did not return) though he made it seem afterward like he’d be OK. With a critical game against rival Michigan coming up this weekend and plenty on the line in the conference, Michigan State better hope so.
2. It’s been common knowledge that the Big Ten is the nation’s best conference this year, and with the release of the NCAA’s “Nitty-Gritty” report that the selection committee uses for the NCAA Tournament, it’s pretty well confirmed. Entering play Tuesday, the conference had two teams in the top six for RPI (Michigan State at #4 and Ohio State at #6) and five in the Top 25 overall (Michigan at #19, Indiana at #24 and Wisconsin at #25). No other conference had as many teams ranked (the same goes for the AP Top 25).
3. “Ohio State” and “bench production” are not two things you often see in the same sentence recently, unless it’s in reference to the lack thereof. But as nine Buckeyes played in this weekend’s win against Michigan, it’s clear that Thad Matta is starting to feel more comfortable going to his bench. It’s been a concern in years past that the Buckeyes have relied too heavily on their starting five. Matta still has five players averaging over 22 minutes each game, but it’s a transition from last year, when all five starters logged at least 29 minutes per game.
4. Wisconsin has a reputation for grinding out the shot clock and milking possessions, resulting in low-scoring games that cause opponents fits and requiring patience and efficiency. But the Badgers say a bit more aggressiveness on the offensive end lately has resulted in their spurt back toward the top of the conference standings.
5. Are the Fighting Illini going to dance? At this point, shouldn’t the question be about how well they can dance, whether they can dance at all? With wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, it seem Illinois is well on its way to another NCAA Tournament bid. Granted, Bruce Weber‘s group still has a tough slate ahead. But just how much damage can this group do the rest of the way? Wait and see.

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

There aren’t too many big time matchups on the schedule this weekend but it’s still a decent slate of games to keep you occupied.

Mississippi State @ #12 Florida – 1:30 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com  (***)

Florida May Struggle to Contain the Mississippi State Big Men

• It has gone largely unnoticed but Florida has won six of its past seven games since losing at Rutgers in December. The Gators bring the top-rated offensive efficiency to the table and are a threat to win any game they play because of it. However, Billy Donovan’s team is thin up front and lacks the lockdown defense elite teams exhibit. Against Mississippi State, Florida could very have major problems dealing with the Bulldogs’ front line. Patric Young attempted double figure shots for only the fifth time this season against Mississippi on Thursday. Without a go-to guy in the post, Florida’s offense revolves around Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton with Brad Beal and forward Erik Murphy, a pick-and-pop specialist. Florida will attempt plenty of threes, connecting 40.7% of the time. Scoring from outside shouldn’t be a major problem against Mississippi State but stopping the Bulldogs inside will be.
• Rick Stansbury has a huge advantage in this game with Arnett Moultrie and Renardo Sidney in his frontcourt. Florida can’t match those two players and the Bulldogs should be pounding the ball inside all day long on Saturday. However, Dee Bost has to be able to create and get into the lane in order to get Moultrie and Sidney going early and often. If Bost isn’t able to penetrate Florida’s defense, the Gators can pack it in and dare Mississippi State to beat them from the outside. Of more concern to Stansbury has to be his defense. In SEC play, the Bulldogs are allowing opponents to shoot 43.4% from beyond the three point arc. If Florida shoots anywhere near that percentage, it’s likely going to be a long afternoon at the O-Dome for the visitors from Starkville.
• In order to steal an important road win, the Bulldogs have to rebound and score in the paint as well as in transition off long rebounds since neither team turns the ball over much. Fast break points will be at a premium in this game but whichever team wins that category will have an advantage. However, the most important part of Mississippi State’s game plan has to be defending the three point line. If the Bulldogs can’t, they won’t win in Gainesville. Even with all that said, this is a game Mississippi State can win with a strong effort. Florida needed a second half rally to defeat Ole Miss in its last game and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Mississippi State could spring the upset.