The first weekend of March Madness is similar to a long distance run. Runners usually go at a slower pace to keep logging longer distances and stay on their feet for a longer time. That’s how college hoops fans approach the first few days of games of the NCAA Tournament. The second weekend is a little bit slower but more analogous to a “tempo” run. The games are still moving at a faster pace but not necessarily at the pace of a sprint, so the fans can focus on the specific mechanics of the game and key matchups. Four B1G teams will showcase their talents over the next couple days during the Sweet Sixteen. More than likely, a couple of teams will advance into the Elite Eight but every one of them – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Indiana — has a shot to keep moving towards the Final Four. Let’s examine if Wisconsin and Ohio State have what it takes to be elite based on their matchups in the round of 16.

Jordan Taylor needs to keep Scoop Jardine in check.

Wisconsin vs. Syracuse

• Key Matchup: Wisconsin’s defense vs. Syracuse’s transition game. Everybody is aware of Boeheim’s lethal 2-3 zone and what it takes to break it consistently during a 40-minute game. But ‘Cuse is practically impossible to stop if they can get their transition game going on offense. Without Fab Melo, they don’t have the low post presence to challenge teams effectively in a half court set, so they need some easy buckets in transition to maintain offensive momentum. Scoop Jardine is an experienced point guard but he can get frustrated at times if he is limited to half court sets only.  Jardine’s turnover rate is 25%, which is not necessarily high but indicates a lack of composure during certain stretches of the game if he is forced to shoot jumpers. Wisconsin has the guards to match up with Boeheim’s versatile backcourt – Jardine, Brandon Triche and Dion Waiters. Nobody on SU shoots over 37% from the long-range, though, so if Bo Ryan’s crew forces them to settle for jumpers, they could be in trouble.  Jardine doesn’t necessarily have the quickness to get around Jordan Taylor or Josh Gasser. Keep in mind the excellent job that Ryan’s guards did against John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt last weekend. Kris Joseph, a 6’7″ senior, can cause some matchup problems for Wisconsin but he relies heavily on the long-range shot as well – Joseph attempted 144 shots from beyond the arc and hit only 34.7% of them this year.  Limit Syracuse from pushing the ball up the court and Bo Ryan’s crew might be onto something tonight. Read the rest of this entry »

RTC Region correspondents Brian Otskey (East) and Andrew Murawa (West) contributed to this preview.

#1 Syracuse vs. #4 Wisconsin – East Region Semifinals (at Boston, MA) – 7:15 PM ET on CBS

Bo Ryan Is Looking For His Second Trip to the Elite Eight at Wisconsin

Perhaps the most fascinating matchup to date in the entire NCAA Tournament will take place in tonight’s first game from Boston. Wisconsin, the most patient and deliberate team in the country, takes on a Syracuse team that has won 33 games due in large part to a lethal transition attack. While Syracuse ranks #202 in tempo, the Orange thrive on the fast break. You hear a lot about Jim Boeheim’s team struggling on the defensive glass and some of that is due to the fact that his guards already start out on the break when a shot goes up, taking them completely out of position to rebound. Without Fab Melo around to man the middle, Syracuse’s rebounding issues could be a major problem against the physical and deliberate Badgers. It’s always easier to slow a game down than to speed it up and that’s what Wisconsin is going to do. Syracuse will be forced to score in the half court against one of the strongest defenses in the entire nation. The big question will be whether Syracuse, already not one of the better half court teams, can get the ball inside and avoid settling for jump shots. At times this season the Orange have been frustrated and forced into shooting contested jumpers. Syracuse needs to utilize strong ball screening action in order to free up shooters. Wisconsin’s players will fight through screens and stick with you so using the pick-and-roll also wouldn’t be a bad idea. As for Wisconsin, the Badgers match up very well on the defensive end. The question for them will be whether they can score enough to win. Syracuse obviously has more offensive weapons but Bo Ryan has Jordan Taylor to take control of the game for his team. Taylor is the only player on Wisconsin capable of creating his own shot and that will be critical against Syracuse’s 2-3 zone. Wisconsin shoots a bunch of three-pointers and it will have to make quite a few in order to knock off the top-seeded Orange. Syracuse’s zone encourages opposing teams to shoot over it but Wisconsin can actually make them, a major difference from Kansas State last week. If Boeheim chooses to extend his zone out on Wisconsin’s shooters, that will free up the Melo-less middle for Jared Berggren to go to work off screen and rolls in addition to opening up driving lanes for Taylor. Expect Jim Boeheim to adjust how his defense attacks Wisconsin as the game goes along, something he certainly has experience with. This will be a clean game between two teams with great defenses and terrific ball protection. Should it come down to free throws, Wisconsin has the edge. Syracuse is the better team and has many more offensive threats but the Tournament is all about matchups. We think the Badgers will make just enough shots to pull off the upset.

The RTC Certified Pick: Wisconsin

#1 Michigan State vs. #4 Louisville – West Regional Semifinal (at Phoenix, AZ) – 7:47 PM ET on TBS

One of the things we college basketball fans tend to really like about this time of year are the surprises. Not just the obvious ones like Butler running to the national title game or Villanova playing the perfect game against Georgetown, but more subtle ones like teams unveiling a new wrinkle to their offense or players making plays that you hadn’t known they were able to make. As for this game, however, don’t expect many surprises; we all more or less know how this is going to go down. We’ve seen Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino enough over the years to know what they want to do, and we’ve seen the 2012 vintages of both of these clubs to know what they are capable of. Michigan State is going to defend like crazy in the halfcourt, pound the glass on both ends of the court and try to knock Louisville around enough so that the Cards will be forced into submission late in the game. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are going to turn up the pressure defensively, try to force turnovers, rely on Gorgui Dieng to block shots in the middle and watch Peyton Siva get penetration and create offense off the bounce. It is likely going to be a low-scoring game that is still in doubt late into the second half and it will come down to which of these teams is capable of making the most plays down the stretch. While Siva’s numbers on the season are not great, he has been a different player since the Big East Tournament started, getting into the lane seemingly at will, creating opportunities for himself and for others and pitching in everywhere on the floor on his way to 13 points, 5.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game over the six-game stretch. He does a lot of damage in the pick-and-roll game, so not only will Spartan guard Keith Appling have to be on his game defensively, but whichever big man gets involved in the screen needs to do a good job of keeping Siva out of the lane. Draymond Green is clearly the big factor for Michigan State, and he too has been on fire of late, averaging 20 points, 12.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists and shooting it at a 64.3% eFG in the NCAA Tournament. Freshman Chane Benahan appears to be the most obvious individual matchup for Green, but it is going to have to be a full team effort for the Cards to slow the All-American down. Louisville will need to pressure the Spartan guards, keeping them from getting into their halfcourt offense easily and, perhaps more importantly, dedicate themselves to keeping Spartans like Green, Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix off the offensive glass. However, given their relative lack of size (only Dieng is taller than 6’8”) and struggles with defensive rebounding, this could be the eventual downfall of the Cards. While they’ll certainly get their share of stops and turnovers, allowing Green and company second opportunities is a recipe for disaster.

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RTC Region correspondents Brian Otskey (East), Kevin Doyle (South), and Andrew Murawa (West) contributed to this preview.

#1 Syracuse vs. #8 Kansas State – East Region Third Round (at Pittsburgh, PA) – 12:15 PM ET on CBS

Jim Boeheim's Team Appears Vulnerable: Will They Find Steady Footing?

You can make a case that Syracuse shouldn’t even be here after the officiating disaster at the end of its first game. However, the Orange survived and now are being questioned by many fans and commentators. A word of caution: Thursday’s game against UNC-Asheville may have been what Syracuse needed to get over the jitters of playing without Fab Melo. While that’s not likely to be a popular opinion, it may be enough to move Syracuse to at least the Sweet Sixteen. The Orange are not going to have an easy time with Kansas State’s physical defense but the big question mark is if the Wildcats can score enough to keep pace. Kansas State is actually somewhat vulnerable on the defensive glass and Syracuse did a nice job of offensive rebounding against Asheville. Obviously the Wildcats have a significant edge on their end of the floor when it comes to offensive rebounding but we actually like the matchups for Syracuse. The Orange have a lot more talent, are deeper and can pressure a Kansas State team that averages 14 turnovers per game. Syracuse won’t get out on the break often but all it needs is a couple stretches of turnovers and fast break points in order to create a cushion. Experience also matters and the Orange feature two seniors in Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph while Kansas State has freshman Angel Rodriguez running its offense. Syracuse isn’t nearly as good without Melo but we think the Orange are good enough to advance past the Wildcats in this game.

The RTC Certified Pick: Syracuse.

#2 Ohio State vs. #7 Gonzaga – East Region Third Round (at Pittsburgh, PA) – 2:45 pm ET on CBS

There are a ton of fascinating matchups in this game. From Gonzaga’s front court guarding Jared Sullinger to the nation’s most efficient defensive team going up against a Gonzaga team that can certainly put up points. Aaron Craft is widely considered to be one of, if not the best perimeter defender in the nation. Thad Matta will count on his sophomore point guard to shut down Gonzaga freshman Kevin Pangos, an absolute sniper from the arc. Gonzaga shoots the ball very well as a team but Pangos is the guy who really provides the spark for this team. The Bulldogs demolished West Virginia on Thursday but facing Ohio State is going to be a totally different animal. Gonzaga does have the front court depth needed to double Sullinger and make it difficult for the big fella to score inside. The key to beating Ohio State is to make them take jumpers while frustrating Sullinger and Gonzaga can do that with its strong front line. However, foul trouble could become a major concern for the Zags if they’re not careful. A matchup on the wing between Elias Harris and Deshaun Thomas are also intriguing, as is Gonzaga’s ability to get to the foul line against a defense that is physical but doesn’t foul a lot. If the Bulldogs can’t get to the stripe that means Sullinger isn’t in foul trouble and they’re going to be forced to make shots against a really tough Buckeye defense. This is going to be a really fun game to watch between two very talented teams. In fact, it may be the best Saturday matchup on a day in which there will be many.

The RTC Certified Pick: Ohio State.

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Well, that didn’t turn out to be too exciting.  The top four seeds of the Big Ten Tournament made it to the semifinals yesterday but only two teams were clear about their intentions – Michigan State and Ohio State.  Neither squad is satisfied about sharing the regular season title but there will be nothing shared on Sunday as they face off in the Big Ten Tournament final in Indianapolis.  The Spartans ground it out to beat Wisconsin, 65-52, despite the Badgers jumping out to an early 20-9 lead in the first half.  Ohio State, on the other hand, wasted no time as they came out firing right from the tipoff.  Their hot shooting in the first few minutes put them up 16-3 against Michigan and continued their dominance to beat the Wolverines 77-55.  Here are a few thoughts from Saturday’s action in Indy.

Deshaun Thomas has been stepping up for Ohio State lately.

1. Deshaun Thomas is ready for March – Thomas has been on fire offensively over the past five games, averaging 19.6 points per game.  Michigan did not have any player who could match Thomas’ aggressiveness or athleticism.  Thomas must have finally realized that few players in the conference can match his size and quickness, and he is beginning to take full advantage of the matchups. Michigan had no answer for his 22 points and six rebounds on Saturday.  Thad Matta is elated to see his group of sophomores fired up for the final stretch of the season.  Aaron Craft obviously never takes a play off, but Thomas and Jared Sullinger have shown a sense of urgency during the last two weeks. Sullinger is averaging over 22 points per game since the loss to Wisconsin in Columbus two weeks ago.  Sunday’s matchup against the Michigan State forwards will tell a lot about Sullinger and Thomas’ leadership. Read the rest of this entry »

1. College Basketball coaches are used to selling their program all the time.  Marketing is usually geared towards recruits but March can be a time for lobbying for an NCAA bid if you live on the bubble.  But Northwestern Head Coach Bill Carmody refuses to do that this week.  He understand that the Wildcats control their own destiny if they can beat Minnesota on Thursday.  That won’t make them a shoe-in but should certainly help their case especially if they also give Michigan a great game on Friday. Carmody’s team split the season series against Minnesota as each team held server on its home court.  If Drew Crawford continues to be a force offensively — 23 points against Ohio State and 18 against Iowa — the Wildcats might finally make it to the NCAA Tournament.
2. With Branden Dawson out for the season, Tom Izzo needs every other Spartan to be healthy and ready to step up over the next few weeks.  Travis Trice re-injured his ankle during practice on Wednesday and had to be carried from practice by a trainer. Trice should get more than 17 minutes per game which has been his average this season.  Look for Izzo to use Brandon Wood as the primary ball-handler and run more offensive plays for Keith Appling.  Whatever it may be, the veteran coach will be trying out a few rotations during the B1G tournament before the Big Dance.
3. Has any other Big Ten coach received more national coverage over the last month than Bruce Weber? Sports Illustrated published an article about the Illinois coach on Wednesday. Michael Rosenberg makes the case that Weber is being forced out despite having a solid record in the Big Ten (albeit skewed towards the early years).  He also makes a great point that the Big Ten has been a “coaches league,” so the best of the best are going against each other which makes the job very stressful and as a result, programs expect consistent titles in the conference.
4. Michigan fans have been celebrating all season long, all the way until its shared Big Ten title on Sunday. Whatever happens over the next few weeks, Wolverines fans will be happy for what they got this year.  But they would ask only one more thing from their sophomore star, Tim Hardaway Jr. — to come back for a junior season. Hardaway, Jr., dodged the question about his future in an interview with Grantland, but if he does come back, the trio of himself, Trey Burke and the highly recruited Mitch McGary, the Wolverines might just have their sights set on the 2013 Final Four.
5. Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger came back for one more season to make something happen in March.  Winning the regular season championship is just one of his checklist items but he has been waiting for postseason play ever since the Buckeyes’ loss to Kentucky a year ago.  Sullinger is anxious to go further than the Sweet Sixteen round, and the sophomore definitely put in the work during the offseason. Thad Matta hopes it will continue to pay off as Ohio State looks to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2007.

1. What can we expect from Ohio State this weekend in Indianapolis? Many are unsure, and that includes the Columbus Dispatch’s Rob Oller. The Buckeyes are just 4-3 in their last seven games, and it’s hard to say how that Sunday date in East Lansing would have gone if Michigan State had Branden Dawson for the duration. But Ohio State has battled through its late-season troubles for a share of the Big Ten title. The question is, where do they go from here? Is this the same team many people thought could run the table in the Big Ten? They’ve had role players step up in the last few weeks, but does Thad Matta’s group have the depth to make a run? Only one way to find out.
2. As of Tuesday, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi had Northwestern as one of the last four teams in his mock NCAA Tournament bracket. But CBSSports.com‘s Jerry Palm tells Teddy Greenstein that Northwestern needs to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament to seal a bid in the Big Dance. That would mean a win against Minnesota on Thursday, and then an upset of two-seed Michigan on Friday in the second round. It seems the Wildcats’ fate is in their own hands.
3. Fran McCaffery made no bones about his thoughts on the All-Big Ten teams and how it relates to his Hawkeyes. McCaffery said on his weekly radio show early this week that he believes Matt Gatens should have been on the first team. “I voted him on the first team,” McCaffery said. “I think Matt Gatens is one of the five best players.” McCaffery also said he felt Gatens — a second-team media selection and third-team coaches pick — also should have been on the All-Defensive team.
4. Plenty of college basketball pundits around the country love hammering the RPI, so why not give this system that a Minnesota graduate student came up with a try? Luke Stanke has developed a statistical model that he says can more fairly choose and seed the 68 NCAA Tournament teams and calls it the “Win Index.” Sounds like somebody’s got a lot of free time on his hands.
5. It hasn’t been an easy road back for Purdue senior Robbie Hummel, but he was rewarded this week by being named to the All-Big Ten first team for the third time in his career. Hummel, who was part of the “Baby Boilers” class that helped bring Purdue back to the college basketball forefront, is averaging 22.6 points and 9.6 rebounds in Purdue’s last seven games. Hummel is the 18th Big Ten player to earn three first-team berths, and the first since Michigan State‘s Mateen Cleaves in 2000.

1. William Buford stole Draymond Green’s spotlight on Senior Day in East Lansing on Sunday. Buford drilled a jumper during the final seconds to lead Ohio State to a Big Ten title tie with Michigan State and Michigan. He scored 25 points during the pivotal road win. Thad Matta‘s team had a huge week with tough wins at Northwestern and Michigan State. The Buckeyes have finally shown that they have the mental toughness to do well in March.
2. Draymond Green can deal with losing the final home game of his career at Michigan State. But Branden Dawson‘s injury during the game is more concerning for Green and the Spartans as they head into postseason play. Reports state that Dawson tore the ACL of his left knee and might be out for rest of the season. Not only will Tom Izzo miss Dawson’s 8.5 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per game; but his defense will be sorely missed as the Spartans look forward to the NCAA Tournament.
3. Even though Bruce Weber might not be wanted in Champaign, sources indicate that his prior employer, Southern Illinois might be interested in hiring him back to coach in Carbondale, Illinois.  Southern Illinois fired their coach and Weber’s protege, Chris Lowery, after two frustrating seasons that resulted in no tournament appearances. Illinois finished the Big Ten season by losing 11 out of the last 13 games as they got crushed in Madison, 70-56 on the road to a Wisconsin team that is surging at the right time.
4. Speaking of Wisconsin, Bo Ryan continued his streak of wins on Senior Day in Madison as they beat Illinois.  Ryan has never lost a game on Senior Day during his time with the Badgers. Seniors Rob Wilson and Jordan Taylor chipped in 8 points and 16 points respectively during their win on Sunday. After their big win against Ohio State on the road last weekend, Bo Ryan’s squad seems to be getting their act together as they prepare for postseason action.
5. John Beilein is a hero in Ann Arbor today. Michigan won their first Big Ten regular season title for the first time since the 1985-1986 season. The Wolverines were in transit from State College during the pivotal Ohio State – Michigan State game on Sunday afternoon.  They watched the final minutes of the game after reaching Ann Arbor including William Buford’s cold-blooded shot that gave them a share of the Big Ten championship.

Bill Hupp is an RTC correspondent. You can follow him on Twitter (@Bill_Hupp). He filed this report following Northwestern’s last-second loss to Ohio State on Wednesday night.

Purple Pain

It was hard to tell if the cheers erupting from Northwestern students after consecutive rebounds by the Wildcats on Wednesday night were sarcastic or an ironic roar acknowledging the event’s rarity. As has been the case in most games this season, Northwestern was dominated on the backboards in their 75-73 last-second loss to Ohio State. At the half, the Buckeyes were outrebounding the ‘Cats 22-5, as interior beasts DeShaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger had 25 of the Buckeyes’ 39 points (and OSU had poured in 20 points in the paint). “They killed us on a second-chance shots in the first half,” Northwestern coach Bill Carmody admitted. “They destroyed us on the backboards.” With Northwestern employing their trademark 1-3-1 zone, OSU used their superior size and athleticism to outrebound the Wildcats 44-18, grab 20 offensive boards (11 by Sullinger) and score 20 second chance points.

Drew Crawford And Northwestern Are Sitting Right On The Bubble (AP)

Still, Ohio State Coach Thad Matta dismissed the gaudy rebounding differential as largely irrelevant. “That’s misleading because a lot of teams do that and don’t beat them,” Matta said. “[But] we felt we could do a heck of a job rebounding if they played their 1-3-1 zone.” If the NCAA Tournament bubble upon which Northwestern firmly sits does burst, the Wildcats will look back and point to poor post play this season as a major reason. It’s not a question of work ethic as Davide Curletti, Luka Mirkovic, John Shurna, and Drew Crawford all battle and scrap down low. But the foursome are finer, more finesse players, athletes not equipped to sustain success against the rigors of conference post play.

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Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

It’s another big Wednesday night in college hoops. Three bubble teams have home games against top 15 opponents, so we will see who really wants to earn their way into an at-large bid. Let’s jump into the breakdowns:

#8 Marquette at Cincinnati – 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 (****)

Cincinnati Will be Fired Up at Home Against #8 Marquette (AP Photo/A. Behrman)

• Buzz Williams’ team continues to impress. Even a suspension of four of its best players for at least one half couldn’t stop Marquette from winning at West Virginia last Friday. Now the Golden Eagles will look to add another quality road win to an already sparkling resume. Jae Crowder’s campaign for Big East Player of the Year is gaining steam as he ranks in the top 10 in the conference in points per game (17.6), rebounds per game (7.7), steals per game (2.9), field-goal percentage (52.4%), and offensive rating (123.9). He and Darius Johnson-Odom are the most potent and consistent one-two punch in the league, and they both have versatile games that should thrive against the Cincinnati zone defense. Marquette leads the conference in scoring but must adapt to the Bearcat attack that plays at a slow pace and limits turnovers.
• The last time the Bearcats were on national television, they had another ranked Big East foe at home in what Rick Pitino called the best home court advantage his team had faced all season. Cincinnati will look to mimic that environment in this game, facing the high-flying Golden Eagles. To slow down Marquette, Cincinnati needs a big game from its veteran guards who can control pace and hit shots. As a team, the Bearcats commit just 9.6 turnovers per game, best in the conference, and they score 31.5% of their points from the three-point line. Dion Dixon, Cashmere Wright, and Sean Kilpatrick will win or lose this game for Cincy. It will be up to Yancy Gates to keep the Marquette defense honest inside as well as trying to shut down Crowder in the paint.
• This game is a pick’em in Vegas, which feels accurate. Cincinnati will be fired up on Senior Night and a win over a top 10 opponent will guarantee its entrance into the Big Dance, but Marquette has been simply fantastic in Big East play, winning 12 of its last 13 games in a variety of fashions. As a believer in this Bearcats team, I think they pull this one out and lock up a postseason bid.

1. At the season’s onset, Ohio State was an easy choice for the Big Ten title, a likely Final Four participant and a trendy choice to be cutting down the nets in New Orleans. It was practically national title or bust for Thad Matta, who is yet to win the big one. Now, things are slipping away in front of our eyes. You can’t help but get a sense that the Buckeyes are close to implosion, particularly after Matta uncharacteristically practically threw his players under the bus after a Senior Day loss to Wisconsin on Sunday. Weeks ago, we were wondering if Ohio State could run the table in the conference. At this rate, we might be wondering just how many more they can win.
2. Many left Purdue for dead when Matt Painter made the widely-publicized decision to kick Kelsey Barlow off the team prior to the Michigan State game earlier this month, but the Boilermakers have responded like few expected they would. Other conference teams seem to have benefited from “addition by subtraction” in recent memory (looking at you, Michigan State). Could this be the case with the Boilermakers? They have won four of their last five, with a great shot to make it five of six with a home meeting against Penn State up next. Robbie Hummel clearly does not intend on ending his career at Purdue quietly. Does anyone want to play the Boilermakers in the Big Ten Tournament?
3. To fully realize just how unselfish this Michigan State team can be, you need look no further than the inside play of Derrick Nix. Tom Izzo likes to call his junior center “Tragic Johnson” — a play on the former Michigan State superstar point guard’s nickname — for Nix’s desire to pass the ball. At times, Nix would be almost better off just going up for the basket rather than looking for the extra pass. But that unselfishness is what brought the Spartans to this surprising share of the Big Ten title, the Detroit Free Press‘ Michael Rosenberg writes. “We always talk to him about that,” senior captain Draymond Green said of Nix. “He’s so unselfish. But how can you get mad at somebody for being unselfish?”
4. Bruce Weber probably feels like he’s on an island right now, with his Fighting Illini having lost nine of their last 11 games. It’s all but certain that this will be his last season in Champaign, but Weber has the support of Iowa coach Fran McCaffery.  “I’ve known Bruce a long time. I think the world of him as a person,” McCaffery said Tuesday. “I think he’s done a terrific job there. He’s had phenomenal success. I feel for him. I wish nobody in our business would have to go through it.”
5. Speaking of Illinois, can we talk about the basketball program without focusing on the head coach’s job security? (Certainly, Bruce Weber would appreciate it.) In honor of the Assembly Hall’s 50th birthday, the News-Gazette‘s Paul Klee pens a nice tribute to the Fighting Illini’s home digs. And it’s not just the Illini that have called it home. Frank Sinatra, Garth Brooks, Prince, Elvis and more have all called the place home, if only for a day or two. With an important home game against Michigan up next for Illinois, maybe the facility can deliver the team a present of its own.