A Sunflower State Sorta Winter (Again)

• Jan. 17 – Kansas State @ Missouri – 4:30 pm
• Jan. 17 - Kansas @ Baylor – 8:30 pm
• Jan. 24 – Baylor @ Kansas State - 8 pm
• Jan. 31 – Texas @ Texas A&M – 8 pm
• Feb. 7 – Missouri @ Kansas - 8 pm
• Feb. 14 - Kansas @ Kansas State – 8 pm
• Feb. 21 – Oklahoma State @ Kansas – 8 pm
• Feb. 28 – Kansas State @ Texas – 8 pm

For two schools who supposedly held no value to anyone in conference realignment-land, the good people in Bristol sure seem to think that they’re worth something.  Kansas and K-State are involved in no fewer than seven of the eight Big Monday contests next season, with the biggest one of course falling on Valentine’s Day between the two in Bramlage Coliseum.  We’ve said it before, but the Big 12 continues to be a loaded league, and there’s a slight but realistic possibility that if the Texas schools and Oklahoma State come on strong late next season that all eight of these games could involve ranked teams on both ends of the court.

It’s seeing stuff like this start to come out, though, that really makes us anxious for next season.  What game do you guys like best in this television lineup?     

With the news on Thursday that Utah has received and accepted the invitation to become the 12^th member of the Pac-10, it looks like the college sports realignment apocalypse has been averted for the summer. There may be further movement on down the line, but all signs point to a relative period of calm after weeks of frantic scrambling from all corners of the country. While it was a pale substitute for actual on-court play, we did have plenty of intrigue and suspense, action and strategy, and winners and losers. Now it’s just a matter of sorting out who was what.

The Greatest and Still Champion

Texas

A Lot to Be Happy about in Austin These Days

Texas definitely fits in the “winner” category, but I think lumping them in with these other schmucks below would be selling them short. And I’m sure they would agree. The Longhorns played this about as well as could be played, and they got everything they wanted out of it. The Big 12 keeps their television deal with ESPN (which doesn’t expire until 2016), but only has to share the proceeds among ten schools rather than twelve. The conference received a promise from Fox for a new deal when their current deal expires, with exponential increases in revenue on tap. And, on top of all that, Texas retains the right to sell local television rights and is free to explore its plans for a Longhorn television network. Bonus: in the process of trying to keep the Longhorns in the Big 12, there are reports that the neediest institutions in the bunch agreed to a plan that sent all of the money that Colorado and Nebraska owe the conference in buyout fees (reported to be somewhere between $10 and $40 million, depending on the source) to Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. So, in the span of a week, without losing any of their traditional rivals in the Big 12 South, Texas goes from generating somewhere in the $12 million range in television revenues to earning an estimated $20-25 million annually. And, that’s not even the best of it. In the process, it became painfully obvious that Texas is the big dog in the conference and the other schools (aside from Texas A&M) are in some manner, just riding coattails. Schools like Oklahoma and Texas Tech made it clear that they were just going to do whatever Texas did, while others, like Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor, had their futures twisting in the wind, reliant on Texas to save them. If the Longhorns had gone to the Pac-16, they would have just been one of the sixteen there. By staying at home, they are clearly the kings of their conference.

The Winners

Texas A&M

The Aggies showed themselves as the one school in the conference that had plans of their own regardless of Texas. While Oklahoma and others were happy to just do whatever Texas decided, A&M talked to the SEC, and by all reports, actually had an offer to join that conference. But, in the end when they could have run off and forced Texas’ move west, the Aggies agreed to stick around and share in the league’s windfall, excellent news for an athletic department that was $16 million in debt, and even better for a school whose once proud football program has fallen on hard times in the past decade.

Big 12 Basketball

Without a doubt, the Big 12 became a better basketball conference overnight. Over the last nine years, both Colorado and Nebraska have had an average finish of around ninth in the conference. Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game. Colorado has only had two NCAA tournament berths in the last 40 years. So as far as the basketball side of the equation goes, this is addition by subtraction at its finest. As the conference makes the transition to an 18-game schedule in which each team will play a full home-and-home round-robin, they will no longer have to worry about games against the Buffs or Huskers dragging down their RPI. Every night in the conference will be tough sledding, but every team in the conference will also have a better chance to build their resume for postseason play.

Watch Out, Big East and ACC...

Chip Brown and Orangebloods.com

Chip Brown has been the point-man on conference realignment for about two weeks now. He broke the original story about Texas dragging five other Big 12 schools to the Pac-10, and when Texas blinked in the 11^th hour, it was Brown who had that story first as well, even in the face of ESPN reporting the opposite. In the process, Brown, a former writer for the Dallas Morning News, has seen his Twitter followers increase exponentially, and the profile of Orangebloods.com, a Longhorn Rivals site of which he is part owner, has jumped from something that was only known amongst the most attentive Longhorn fans to an important resource for those of us following this story.

Utah

The Utes received just $1.2 million in television revenue from their association with the Mountain West Conference. Presently Pac-10 schools earn somewhere in the $10-$12 million neighborhood from their television contracts, and with the Pac-10 set to negotiate a new television deal which will begin the 2011-12 season, the Utah athletic department stands to make a nice chunk of change for very little trouble.  While the basketball program is going through a rough patch presently, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the Utes be right in the thick of things in the Pac-10 football chase immediately.

ABC/ESPN and Fox Sports

Both networks stepped in to help save the Big 12. ABC/ESPN agreed to keep their current contract with the Big 12, allowing the ten remaining members to split the revenues that had previously been divided amongst twelve. Fox Sports also agreed to large increases in their agreement with the Big 12 which expires next offseason. If Texas had bolted for the Pac-10 along with five other Big 12 members, both ESPN and Fox Sports would have had a major bidding war on its hands for the rights to the new Pac-16 conference television deal. The breakup of the Big 12 would likely have meant other moves by the Big Ten or SEC or ACC, moves that could have resulted in their contracts needing to be reworked. In the short term, both entities probably overpay for the Big 12 rights, but they saved themselves plenty of cash in the long term.

Big Ten

While it may have appeared to be the first rat on the way out before the ship went down, Nebraska’s move to the Big Ten makes a lot of sense, at least football-wise. Adding the Huskers gives the Big Ten four iconic football programs, the ability to hold a championship game and a fanbase that will eat up anything Huskers on the Big Ten Network. And, passing on Missouri is probably the right move as well. Picking up one Big 12 team brings the Big Ten to 12 schools, and allows them to take their time with any additional expansion they may be interested in, while getting the benefits of the 12^th team. If the Big Ten chooses to pursue further expansion, it will be mostly focused on Big East teams, including the great white whale, Notre Dame.

The Losers

Missouri

Better Head to Rehab, Mizzou...

Since the Big Ten announced that it was exploring expansion as a possibility, Mizzou may have had their feet in the Big 12, but their minds were definitely in the Big Ten. Figuring they were a strong geographic and academic match with the Big Ten and that they added the St. Louis and Kansas City media markets, Missouri administrators figured they were a lock for a Big Ten invite. But, when things started moving fast with the Pac-16 rumors, and with Mizzou still unable to garner the affection of the Big Ten who was busy checking out that hot little number Nebraska, they were forced to backpedal and make sure that everyone associated with the university knew to say that Missouri was already in a very happy relationship with the Big 12. And, while Texas mulled their potential move to the Pac-16, Mizzou was looking at a future that included neither the Big 12 nor the Big Ten. In the end, they got a reprieve from Austin, and in return are locked into the Big 12 for the foreseeable future despite their longstanding displeasure with the appropriation of funds in the conference, a situation that just got far, far worse. So, basically, Missouri comes across as a school that thought itself a lot hotter than anyone else did, waiting on a Big Ten invitation that was never going to come only to go slinking back to the Big 12 after nearly being left to fend for itself, ready to give Texas whatever it wanted so long as they could just stick around. Pathetic, really.

Colorado

During last season’s disastrous football season in Boulder, it came to light that in head football coach Dan Hawkins’ contract was a clause detailing, upon early termination of his contract, approximately $1 million worth of buyout funds for every year remaining on the contract, at a time when Hawkins still had three years on his deal. A major reason why Hawkins remains the head coach at Colorado is because the athletic department couldn’t afford spending the $3 million to buy him out. Fast forward to the offseason, there is an offer on the table from the Pac-10 to take Colorado from the Big 12 along with Texas and the other schools, but once Texas legislative members started making noise about wanting to substitute Baylor for Colorado in the deal, the CU athletic department got spooked and, rather than wait for the official announcement from Texas that the conference was indeed dead, CU got out in front of the deal and announced their intentions to join the Pac-10. A couple days later, Texas backs out, and Colorado is now in a situation where not only will they forfeit 80% of their television revenues for their remaining time in the Big 12, they also will need to pay the Big 12 (well, really, just Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M) additional buyout fees at a time when they couldn’t even afford $3 million to can a failing head coach. And, to top it off, their travel budget just increased as well.

Mountain West

For the span of a weekend or so, the MWC was a very good 10-team conference with at least an argument that they deserved an automatic BCS bid. On the horizon was a chance to pick off some of the Big 12 leftovers once Texas and the gang headed to the Pac-16. Then, at the last minute, Texas changed its mind, and the writing was on the wall that not only would they not be adding any Big 12 schools, but Utah was on the way out the door. While adding Boise State eases the pain somewhat, the loss of Utah – a program with not only a couple BCS bowl bids in its recent history but also a Final Four appearance in the not-too-distant past – is a major blow to the conference, dashing their dreams of the big time.

Baylor

The Bears had a weird couple of weeks. First, they were going to be left behind when Texas pulled out of town for the Pac-16. Then, via Ann Richards’ ghost, they were going to be rescued and brought along in place of Colorado. Then, word came down that Cal and Stanford, among others in the Pac-10, wanted absolutely nothing to do with their religious affiliation, and Baylor was back on the outs again. While they were making plans for life without the Big 12, word came out that even Texas Christian was uninterested in sharing the Mountain West with their former Southwest Conference chums. And, in the end, Baylor got bailed out by Texas, and only had to give Texas everything they wanted for the privilege.

Not Sure Why Baylor Was So Poisonous...

WAC

While Missouri, Colorado, Baylor and the Mountain West all came out losers at the end of the process, they all at least have something to show for it. Mizzou and Baylor (not to mention Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State) are still in a BCS conference, and almost overnight, their television revenues increase as payment for a week or two of stress. Colorado probably jumped the gun too early, but they wound up in another BCS conference, and probably the conference that they wanted to be in. And the Mountain West was on top of the world for a weekend, and when it all came crashing down, they wound up as more or less the same conference they were when they started. But the WAC? Its flagship football program is gone, and there are absolutely no suitable replacements on the horizon anywhere.  For basketball fans, however, you won’t really notice much of a difference. Did the Broncos even field a basketball team?

To Be Determined

Dan Beebe

Beebe’s goal as the Big 12 commissioner was, basically, to be able to still have a job after next season. He’s done that. The Big 12 is saved for now. However, there are plenty of questions about the long term viability of the conference, given that Beebe’s plan to save the Big 12 amounted to little more than giving Texas whatever it wanted. The main problem the Big 12 North schools had with the conference was the inequitable sharing of revenues, and in giving Texas the keys to the conference, Beebe’s plan only exacerbated that situation. And, now the precedent has been set: whenever Texas wants something, the best way for the Big 12 to deal with it is to give it to them. Maybe the next time the SEC comes calling on Texas A&M, the Sooners are willing to go east with them and get out under the thumb of Austin, although that will be at least 10 years down the road. For now, give Beebe plenty of credit for doing what seemed impossible as recently as Sunday, saving the Big 12. But we’ll have to save a final determination on Beebe’s success until later.

The Pac-10

If a month ago, you had been told that the Pac-10 had expanded to twelve by adding Colorado and Utah, most people would have seen that as a good move for the conference, adding the two schools with the most in common with the other Pac-10 institutions: large, non-religious research institutions in large western cities. However, on the heels of missing out on Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, et al, there is a feeling that the Pac-10 failed. While this didn’t turn out quite as well as it might have for the conference, this is by no means a loss. They still get their football championship game, they can still pursue a conference television network, and they have added a couple large media markets along the way. Sure, they didn’t get the home run it looked like they might get, but a double off the fence is nothing to complain about.

Nebraska

On the surface, Nebraska will fit in with the Big Ten culture just fine. But let’s be honest, Nebraska is all about football. While they will continue to grab every high school football prospect out of the state of Nebraska, to paraphrase Barry Alvarez, their hearts and minds may come from Nebraska, but their legs and hands better come from Texas and Florida. In pulling out of the Big 12, Nebraska will have to reorient its recruiting away from Texas and towards the Big Ten territory. It remains to be seen how successful they can be competing in recruiting against traditional Big Ten powers, and how successful they can be on the national scene just pulling the majority of its players from within the Big Ten footprint.

Instead, we’re left with a Big 12 conference that suddenly looks much stronger in the sport of basketball than it has since the good ol’ Big 8 days of yore.  Consider that in the last seven years of Big 12 conference play and in twelve of the fourteen years of its existence as a twelve-team league, BOTH of now-departed Nebraska and Colorado failed to make the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, Colorado only made the Big Dance twice (1997 and 2003) over that period, while the moribund Huskers only took part once (1998).  The two teams combined for a single NCAA win (CU in 1997) in that span, and generally neither school did much to scare the likes of Kansas, Mizzou, Texas or Oklahoma on the recruiting trail or in the arena (Nebraska averaged 6.4 wins in the Big 12 on an annual basis, while the Buffs averaged an even paltrier 6.2 wins per season).  Put simply, these are two of the worst BCS-level basketball programs in America, and now the Big 12 has fortuitously shed themselves of their depressing RPIs and general albatross-ness.

Imagine how much better the SEC’s profile would look if it could drop Auburn and Georgia in basketball, or if the ACC could do likewise with NC State and Miami (FL).  Suddenly, those #7 and #8 teams fighting for NCAA attention look stronger because their RPIs are not being dragged down by multiple games (and an occasional loss) with the bottom-feeders.  Missouri Governor Jay Nixon already gets it:

Nixon suggested that the loss of Colorado and Nebraska might be good for MU and the rest of the conference, at least in one sport.  “When you drop the two weakest basketball programs in Colorado and Nebraska, it makes the conference better,” Nixon said. “Our RPI will improve.”

Consider what’s left.  Kansas is a top five historical program who will always be good.  Texas is currently a top ten program with the resources and recruiting base to remain there for years to come.  Missouri has a long tradition of excellent basketball and will continue to excel under Mike Anderson.  Texas A&M will play tough-minded defensive basketball for Mark Turgeon and can also tap into the recruiting riches of the Lone Star State.  Ditto for Baylor and Scott Drew.  Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have strong traditions as well, and will continue to get good players and make NCAA Tournaments.  Frank Martin’s Kansas State is on the verge of becoming a powerhouse of its own to rival KU and Mizzou in their backyards.  The only two dogs of the group are at Iowa State, who hasn’t been able to get its act together since Larry Eustachy was in town, and Texas Tech, who is clearly still feeling the effects of the Bob Knight era.  But eight of ten good to great programs is not freakin’ bad, folks.

You Have to Resurrect Tyronn Lue to Find a Good Nebraska Hoops Team

Last season the Big 12 already had the best conference RPI in the land by a slight margin over the Big East.  If we remove CU and UN from the mix, the Big 12′s conference RPI would have risen by a full 0.14 ratings points, making it quite clearly the strongest league in 2009-10.  Seven teams already got into the Dance last year — with the additional slots that the 68-team Tournament will now provide, it is conceivable that the Big 12 could see eight of its ten teams advancing to the NCAAs in a particularly strong year.  While all of these moves were driven by the pigskin dollars, it may be that the biggest beneficiary in terms of success on the playing surface are the remaining basketball programs.   

The Big 12 went all the way to the brink, peered over the other side into non-existence, and then veered away from the white light at the last minute. The patient is now resting comfortably in Austin, although it has lost a little weight.

After last week’s rumors that the University of Texas was all but signed up to head to the Pac-10, bringing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and potentially Texas A&M or Kansas along for the ride, Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe pulled off perhaps the biggest longshot in the college sports year, reportedly in conjunction with an influential group of concerned citizens both within and outside of the world of college athletics, pulling Texas back from the brink with promises of SEC-type money and an ability for the Longhorns to start their own television network, the revenues of which they’ll be able to keep all for themselves. And, just as a little bonus, the remaining ten Big 12 schools (yes, it appears that for the near future, the Big 12 will have ten schools and the Big Ten twelve) will get to split the nearly $20 million in buyout penalties that Colorado and Nebraska must pay for leaving the conference. Maybe Christian Laettner’s shot and Doug Flutie’s pass were more exciting to watch, but Beebe’s last chance attempt at holding the Big 12 together will have a much larger long-term impact on the college sports landscape.

The Most Powerful Athletic Program in College Sports

Texas

The biggest winner here is Texas, on several fronts. According to Beebe’s projections, the Big 12’s next television deal coupled with projected income from a Longhorn television network could provide the university with between $20-$25 million annually, a marked increase from the estimated $10-$11 million they are currently generating.  And, the Longhorns get to remain in a conference with its historic rivals, many of whom were either in the position a few days ago of  doing whatever Texas decided it was going to do, or being left behind if Texas did leave. While the Big 12 was already painted as Texas and the 11 dwarfs before the last week, that image has been cemented in everyone’s minds now. Clearly that will be just another useful recruiting tool for Texas athletics.

Texas A&M

The Aggies come across as the only school in the Big 12 whose leaders were able to think of themselves in a way other than their relationship to Texas. If Texas had made the decision to head west, A&M was already well on its way to paving its own road to the SEC. Whereas before this mess, most would have pointed at Oklahoma or maybe Nebraska as the strong number two program to the Longhorn Ace, Texas A&M went a long way this week toward establishing their own identity. And then, of course, at the last minute the Aggies blinked. Fortunately for them, big daddy Texas still had their backs.

The Little Twelve

So what happens to the conference as a whole? It gets significantly richer, while being in the excellent position of dividing up a bigger pie up into fewer pieces. Beebe’s number should certainly be retired, and any time that he shows up at a Big 12 sporting event for the rest of his lifetime, they should roll out the red carpet for him, sit him down at a nice courtside throne and pay off a few cheerleaders to fan him with feathers and feed him grapes. Iowa State in particular was certainly on the verge of relegation to a mid-major program with Baylor likely not far behind. Missouri’s administrators, who not long ago talked of their involvement in the Big 12 in the past tense, have been saved as well from peddling their wares on the street corner. Kansas and its pre-eminent basketball program has been spared the indignity of either playing out of region in the Big East or asking for shelter from the Mountain West. And all these longtime rivals (or at least most of them) get to continue beating each other up on the playing field. Without a doubt, the 2010-11 season has just taken on some added significance.

Beyond all that, there are the details. First, is this league still the Big 12? We’ve put up with the Big Eleven still calling themselves the Big Ten if only because they were sorta old and quaint, perhaps a little senile, and who could blame them if they couldn’t count anymore. Sure the Atlantic 10 has 14 members, but the Atlantic 14 sounds like a really bad sequel to Ocean’s Eleven. But we really can’t have the Big 12 operating with ten members (assuming they actually stay at ten – more on that in a second), still calling itself the Big 12, can we? The easy solution is to just have the Big Ten and Big 12 swap logos, but something tells me we’re stuck with these names.

Next, the schedules should improve for the conference. As the Pac-10 gave up its claim as the only BCS conference to host a full schedule in football and a home-and-home round-robin in basketball, the Big 12 should be able claim that schedule for their own as its football championship goes on hiatus for awhile and it drops the dead weight at the back end of their basketball slate.

Then, there is also the issue of whether the Big 12 maybe gets a little bit of that expansion greed of its own and tries to reach into the MWC for a couple teams to move back to 12, giving the name meaning again and firing the football championship game back up. Air Force and BYU have already been mentioned, and while I’m not going to say for sure (things ‘round these parts have a way of changing rapidly), I don’t see that happening. The member institutions have this nice new television contract, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense for them to be interested in cutting in two new schools on the deal.

One interesting question that remains is the talk of this television money. The Big 12 still has existing television contracts with Fox (which expires at the end of 2010-11) and ESPN (which expires at the end of 2015-16). Renegotiating the Fox contract surely did not suddenly make the conference flush with all this cash, right? It had to be ESPN that came in to save the day, renegotiating their contract with the Big 12 to allow the conference to stick around. And, in the process, ESPN prevented a bidding war for the rights to the new Pac-16 conference (the Pac-10’s deal expires at the end of 2010-11) and stuck it to Fox a little, since the plans for the new Pac-16 conference network included Fox as an operating partner and perhaps as the main cable conference for the network.   It will be interesting to see the details about exactly where this conference-saving television contract came from at some point in the future.

Pac-10. Or 11. Or 12?

So, with the Big 12 (or 10, or god knows what) all set, where does that leave the Pac-10, which currently has 11 teams? Commissioner Larry Scott is not going to be able to reel in the big fish, but he’s still got a line out there, looking for a 12^th team with the likeliest target being Utah. And frankly, Utah is probably snapping around in the water just begging to get a bite of that hook. Utah is everything the Pac-10 is looking for, and the combination of Colorado and Utah was the likeliest set of invitees to the Pac-10 all along. Utah is a large state research institution in a big western market, and they match well with Colorado as their traveling partner in the Pac-10’s geographical clustered format. Utah athletic director Chris Hill has made it clear that  his school is happy in the MWC, but he would have a hard time turning down an offer from the Pac-10, which would certainly be more profitable.

Utah is Likely to be the 12th Member of the New Pac-12

While the Pac-10 may take a little heat in the general public for having missed out on Texas, the perspective I see is that they swung for the fences, and only wound up with a double. They still will likely end up with the schools they thought they had the best chance of getting at the start of this whole process, and the schools that were the best geographic and cultural matches. The talk is that they’ll still proceed with their plans for a conference cable network, as they’re still well positioned for their upcoming television negotiations (although there isn’t much chance they’ll get the type of money the Big 12 got), and they’ll now be able to hold the football championship game they wanted all along.

And, if the Pac-10 does wind up at 12, don’t expect them to force the Pac-10 moniker on us. They’ll at least be smart enough to call it what it is, the Pac-12.

Mountain West

With Utah apparently the next target for the Pac-10, the Mountain West could wind up basically trading Utah for Boise State. With Utah, the MWC would have been a very strong football conference,but without the Utes they’re basically back to where they were last season. The worst case scenario for the MWC is if the Big 12 does in fact try to get back to twelve teams by poaching a couple of the MWC schools, like Air Force and BYU. In that unlikely scenario, both the MWC and Boise State wind up the big, big losers in the whole affair, with the both sides wondering why they didn’t wait a few more days to make their union official. As it is, however, it looks like mostly a wash. But the college sports landscape may lose another of its big conference rivalries, with BYU and Utah being split up.

Will the MWC try to replace Utah? If so, it won’t be an upgrade; possible targets would be further WAC teams like Fresno State, Nevada or Utah State, but those conversations may be further down the road.

What’s next?

The next big story will likely be the Pac-10’s courtship of Utah, which shouldn’t really be a long and suspense-filled dalliance. After that, we may downshift into normalcy for awhile. Big Ten expansion has moved back over into the slow lane (although I don’t suspect that they are quite done yet), and Jim Delany’s original 12-18 month timetable is again the order of the day. With the Pac-10 and Big 12 pieces of the puzzle off the table (Orangebloods.com reports that the new TV deal for the Big 12 will lock the schools into the conference for the life of the deal), any further conference realignment will be focused in the east. The Big Ten, if it expands further, will still look at Notre Dame and several Big East football schools. There is talk of Memphis trying to buy its way into a BCS conference via FedEx CEO Fred Smith’s offer of up to $10 million annually for an invitation, and some talk that the Big East may be interested. The SEC could still be interested in some ACC football powers, although the SEC/ESPN contract that was once such hot stuff is no longer all that outrageous anymore. For the time being, however, it looks like we have passed the hyper-critical stage of conference realignment, with just three confirmed moves so far, and it looks like we have avoided the apocalyptic meltdown that was once a distinct possibility. At least until all these television contracts get ready to expire again.

Following yesterday’s whirlwind of activity surrounding the Big Ten, Pac-10 and Big 12, today was a relatively mild day. All that happened, was, you know, the first actual confirmed move of a school from a conference to another, as Colorado and the Pac-10 announced their agreement to have the Buffaloes begin play in the Pac-10 conference beginning in the 2012 academic calendar. While rumors continue to fly that five additional Big 12 teams will be invited to join the Pac-10 (at least that’s still the name of the conference right now) and that Nebraska and the Big Ten will formally announce their union tomorrow, the Colorado move is still the only move that is signed, sealed, delivered and announced.

Seen here in their heyday, the Bigtwelveosaur and Bigeastosaurus were blown into extinction by the conference realignment asteroid of 2010.

Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott also mentioned on Thursday that his conference will not necessarily add any more teams after Colorado, a comment that is seen as little more than a smokescreen before further announcements come.

Beyond Colorado, the biggest news on the Big 12/Pac-10 front on Thursday was the news that the SEC (whom we referred to yesterday as “refreshingly silent”) is in very serious talks with Texas A&M as a second option for the Aggies, who aren’t enthralled about heading west.  A&M athletic director Bill Byrne and regent Gene Stallings are leading the charge for the move to the SEC instead of the Pac-10, and the SEC seems ready to play ball as well, with the conference potentially interested in Virginia Tech as a 14th team. The SEC has also talked with Oklahoma about potentially moving to the conference, but OU AD Joe Castiglione confirmed that they would follow Texas, and Texas is simply not interested in the SEC.

The only news on the Missouri front is that university officials are being reminded to confirm that the university is a “proud member of the Big 12 Conference,” despite Missouri’s clear desire to become a proud member of the Big Ten Conference and leave the Big 12 behind.  At this point, however, it is more likely that the Big 12 will leave Missouri behind than the other way around.

The conference realignment chain reaction has begun. And if you can't draw this, you can't be in the Pac-10.

And, while we watch as the Big 12 slowly fades from existence, former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer envisions the same thing happening to the Big East. A lot of what he says makes sense, but more importantly, it is just further proof that absolutely no one in this process is paying a lick of attention to basketball. While it is very possible that the Big East as a football conference is headed toward extinction, it is still very unlikely — bordering on impossible — that there would not be at minimum a very strong Big East basketball-only conference going forward.

What’s Coming Next?

It is expected that tomorrow the Big Ten and Nebraska get hitched. Once that happens, the Pac-10 snatching up the best of the Big 12 is the next big move. It is unlikely that such an announcement will happen on Friday, although the writing will clearly be on the wall. The formal announcement could come early next week. However, before that happens, the Pac-10 will probably want to know exactly who the five additional Big 12 teams will be, so a deadline for Texas A&M to come to a decision could be put in place. If A&M opts for the SEC, suddenly it is possible that Kansas gets an invitation from the Pac-10, although breaking up Kansas and Kansas State would be borderline criminal. The other option, perhaps more likely than snagging the Jayhawks, is that rather than make any Big 12 team the 16th team in the Pac-10, the conference would reach out to Utah of the Mountain West and pull them in. These are the handful of question marks that remain in the Big 12/Pac-10 saga, and it is likely that they will be sorted out early next week.

On the heels of recent rumors regarding the Pac-10’s plans to invite six Big 12 schools to leave their current home for a new superconference, the Big 12 is looking for assurances that all of its current members are committed to the conference. At the Big 12 meetings in Kansas City this week, nine of the 12 schools gave their commitment to the Big 12, but the three schools with the likeliest chances of invites elsewhere – Colorado, Missouri and Nebraska – declined to do so. As a result, the remaining Big 12 schools have issued an ultimatum to all three schools, mostly focused on Nebraska, to either commit fully to continued membership in the Big 12 or else be ready to watch it dissolve. While there is no reason that any commitment these schools give to the Big 12 would be in any way binding and there is no “or else” necessarily specified, reading between the lines it looks like if the six schools tied to the Pac-10 rumors do not get assurances from Nebraska that they will remain Big 12 members, those six schools will pursue their opportunities with the new Pac-10 superconference.  So, while the Big 12 feels that can withstand the loss of Missouri and that Colorado isn’t going anywhere without other members of the conference, if Nebraska is not ready to commit to the rest of the conference and foreswear possible Big Ten membership, the invited six are ready to join up with the Pac-10.

In a related story, there is also news that the Texas state legislature is at it again, mixing it up in inter-collegiate sports in an attempt to save Baylor from being left behind. Orangebloods.com is reporting that there is a group of Texas lawmakers trying to make a push to force the Big 12 to take Baylor instead of Colorado, by doing something like not allowing Texas to leave the Big 12 for the Pac-10 if Baylor is not invited as well.  Also, it seems that rather than deal with a big legal and political hassle, the Pac-10 would be willing to substitute Baylor for Colorado, despite the desire for the lucrative Denver television market. This, of course, has happened before with Baylor. When the Southwest Conference broke up in the mid 90s, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Baylor were offered invitations to join the Big 8 schools, creating the Big 12. It was then-Texas-governor Ann Richards, a Baylor alum, who insisted that Baylor be included in any plan with Texas state universities joining the Big 8 schools. This time around, it may be new Baylor president Ken Starr (yes, THAT Ken Starr) who is leading the charge to keep Baylor tied to the hips of the other Big 12 Texas schools.

As far as the Pac-10, they granted commissioner Larry Scott the power to proceed with expansion plans, effectively handing a pen and some invitations to Scott to let him fill out and send. There are really three possible scenarios for the Pac-10 at this point: no expansion, add six Big 12 schools, or — the scenario that was first talked about — adding Colorado and Utah. That last option might be fading fast at this point, with the other two perhaps equally likely. Whatever happens, the Pac-10 would like to move quickly, settle expansion issues once and for all by the end of the year if not in the next month, and have the lineup of the conference (whatever that may be) ready for play by 2012-13.  Settling plans for expansion by the end of this year would give the conference plenty of time to either plan its new cable network or negotiate a new television contract for itself.

The first bit of the oncoming shakeup was supposedly to go down on Monday, if the Mountain West Conference had invited Boise State to join. BSU has been angling for MWC membership for several years now, and if an invitation is extended, it is expected that they will trip over themselves on the way to signing up. However, with the report on the possible breakup of the Big 12, both sides are a bit nervous about what could come next. While six teams leaving the Big 12 would cripple it and leave it without an automatic NCAA tournament berth and without an automatic qualifier into the BCS, there would be no real reason for the Big 12 to exist anymore.  With the possibility, however, that schools like Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State and Nebraska could possibly tempt current MWC members like BYU and Utah to take a step up, both the MWC and Boise State are choosing their steps a bit more carefully. Brian Murphy of the Idaho Statesman tweeted on Sunday night that after he talked to MWC commissioner Craig Thompson, he did not expect Boise State to be invited on Monday as both sides consider their options.  Murphy then confirmed this on Monday afternoon.  An invitation could still be forthcoming soon — just not on Monday.

Calm down, boys. You're not going anywhere. Yet.

With the expansion watch heating up all over, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany made it clear that his 12-18 month timetable on which he has repeatedly insisted is being accelerated as we speak. Much like the Pac-10, we could have a definitive answer as to the future make-up of the Big Ten well before Labor Day. There is still the strong possibility that if Notre Dame agrees to join the Big Ten, all of this talk can stop.  The Big Ten goes to twelve teams, gets the big gun they wanted all along and shelves any plans to extend invitations to Missouri or any of the Big East teams. Missouri and Nebraska, with nowhere to go, recommit to the Big 12, the Pac-16 plans are scrapped, the Big East is saved, the SEC and all of its member institutions are just fine with their ESPN contract and counting their millions, and we can scrap all future columns on any possible conference shakeups.  Notre Dame would fit in just perfectly with the Big Ten, did it not still hold onto a grudge nearly a century old and its desire to remain independent. And now, Notre Dame could hold the fate of the face of the college sports landscape in its hands.

That sound you just heard may have been the proverbial first domino creaking a little. Today, Orangebloods.com columnist Chip Brown reported that, in advance of the Pac-10 meetings which begin this weekend in San Francisco, the Pac-10 is set to invite six Big 12 schools to join in the creation of the first superconference of the new era of college sports. Brown reports that Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech will be the schools invited, leaving Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska behind. All this comes on the heels of the Big 12 meetings, wrapping up on Friday, which opened with a plea by commissioner Dan Beebe for a united front among member institutions and a commitment to the conference. Obviously, this rumor has huge ramifications for the Big 12 and the Pac-10, but the ripple effect of such a move would be felt across the college sports landscape. We’ll take a look here at the specifics of this rumor and how this rumor could affect other conferences around the country.

Why is this man smiling? Beebe has his work cut out for him. (AP/Mike Fuentes)

The Pac-16. Or Big 16. Or the Great New Superconference

According to the Brown article, which cites multiple unnamed sources, the new conference would be divided into two eight-team divisions with the six Big 12 schools joining Arizona and Arizona State in an Eastern or Inland Division and Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington and Washington State forming the Western or Coastal Division. Then, with the aid of Fox Sports Net, already an operating partner with the Big Ten Network and television partner with both the Pac-10 and Big 12 conferences, the league would create its own cable network akin to the BTN. Perhaps coupled with new television contracts with ABC/ESPN, Fox, CBS, Turner or any other bidders, the projected revenues of the new conference (which would encompass seven of the top 20 television markets in the country) could rival those of the SEC or even the Big Ten.

But this is far from a done deal for a lot of reasons. One big rumor recently has been Texas’ interest in creating its own television network, a move that would allow Texas to keep all of the revenues to itself. And considering Texas’ long-standing disinclination towards sharing profits with other lesser draws (one of the main reasons there has been some Big 12 familial disquiet in the past), they would likely prefer to keep the Big 12 together as-is and move forward with their own plans. However, most people around the conference already see Missouri as good as gone, and Nebraska is at least still in the Big Ten’s sights, so the hopes of keeping the conference whole may be rapidly disappearing.

Texas A&M is also reportedly not entirely on board with the move west. A&M athletic director Bill Byrne was quoted in the Houston Chronicle on Thursday as saying that the SEC could be an option for the Aggies and Oklahoma could also be more inclined to head that way rather than west, both turns of events that could cause the new league to be either scaled down or reconfigured.  It still remains to be seen, however, if the SEC is really interested in taking on more members. With member institutions already raking in about $17 million a year from their new deal with ESPN, that pie would either have to be divided into more and smaller pieces, or renegotiated upon the acceptance of new members. As much as A&M and OU may rather head east, they may not necessarily be invited. And then, there is also the question of how attractive the Oklahoma athletic department is at this point, given their current ongoing NCAA investigation into alleged payment to players, a very serious infraction for a school that was already on probation.

Anyone feel like joining the Pac-10?

As we discussed in our original piece on conference realignment, the worst case scenario for the Big 12 is that it doesn’t exist anymore, and this news today goes a long way towards making that more of a reality. Why is the Big 12 the target for cherry-picking from all sides — the Pac-10 to the west, the Big Ten to the north and the SEC to the east? Well, certainly geography is part of it, and with the Big 12 being smack in the middle of the country and other conferences wishing to expand into relatively nearby geographical areas, member institutions throughout the Big 12 are just primed to be picked at by conferences on the edges. But, beyond that angle, there is the fact that television revenues in the Big 12 are not paid out evenly, with Texas earning over $3 million more per year than Baylor and Iowa State, and even $2 million more than schools like Missouri, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Colorado. Ostensibly, the new superconference would provide a much more equitable distribution of wealth. Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott said recently that a new conference network would need to be an “all-rights-in situation,” again per Orangebloods.com. Revenue sharing in the Big 12 has long been an issue (prompting a hilariously self-unaware quote by Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins: “Revenue sharing is an issue, but if you do some other things there are ways to offset that”), but again at this week’s conference meetings, the issue was not up for discussion. With Missouri in particular displeased with the unequal distribution of wealth, that could be just one more nudge toward the Big Ten door for that school.

Big 12 Leftovers

While there are big questions for both the Pac-10 schools and the Big 12 schools rumored to be invited, all of that pales in comparison to the questions left for those Big 12 schools rumored to be on the outside looking in. What happens to Kansas, one of the nation’s preeminent basketball schools? How about up-and-coming programs Kansas State and Baylor, the Big 12’s Elite Eight representatives last year? If Oklahoma or Texas A&M wind up getting invited to the SEC instead, perhaps Kansas and Kansas State could take their spots in the new Pac-16. Or, if the original 16 in the rumor wind up together, maybe KU and KSU get a lifeline from the SEC, although neither really fits in geographically or aesthetically with the SEC schools. Baylor would be a logical partner in the MWC with fellow former-SWC member TCU, but does Kansas make any sense in the MWC?

So what about the remaining five Big 12 teams banding together to pick off some conglomeration of MWC and Conference USA teams, resulting in a new Big 12 that looks something like: Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, New Mexico, Rice, TCU, Tulsa and Utah? It makes some sense, but at this point it is likely that the MWC teams would have more clout than the remaining Big 12 teams. Certainly, with the MWC perhaps on the verge of adding Boise State, a quartet of Boise State, BYU, TCU and Utah is far more appealing than the remaining Big 12 schools football-wise, and while Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor would significantly upgrade the already strong MWC basketball slate, does Iowa State get left out in the cold? Does Nebraska get left out if the Big Ten decides to go to the bigger media markets to the East?

Another scenario, which would require several other things to transpire in front of it, is the Big 12 leftovers joining forces with the Big East football leftovers (assuming the Big Ten raids the Big East for some combination of Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse), for a mish-mashed geographic league: say Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Nebraska, South Florida and West Virginia. Yuck.

The reality is, if the rumored six head off to the Pac-16, the remaining Big 12 schools will be in for some major league scrambling.

Effect on Big Ten Expansion

If this comes to fruition, what kind of effect does this have on Big Ten expansion? With many people already considering Missouri a done deal, it puts a lot of pressure on Nebraska to find a way to get invited for Big Ten membership, lest they, their legions of fans, and their historic football program be left scrambling for invitation somewhere else, whether that be the SEC (poor geographic match, although the heft of the Husker football program would fit in well with the SEC schools), MWC (better, but still not great geographically, and a significant step down for the football program), or some other new conglomeration of schools left out in other realignments. It is possible that the disintegration of the Big 12 may actually give the Big Ten more of a reason to go out and get Nebraska, perhaps even prompting them to go beyond 16, because Nebraska and their football program will wind up somewhere at some point and they are an attractive well-supported option. There is also the idea that the Pac-10 jumping to 16 may cement the notion that the Big Ten will at least go to 16, if for no other reason than to keep up with the Joneses.

Will Slive and the SEC go searching for new blood?

Effect on SEC Expansion

More interesting may be the number of different scenarios that get tossed towards the SEC if the ball gets seriously rolling on the Pac-16. If Texas A&M and Oklahoma are seriously not interested in Pac-10 membership, the SEC may be able to snap them up and expand their reach further west, maybe even grabbing Nebraska along the way, making an already strong football conference even stronger, although perhaps further diluting their basketball strength. While this could happen if the Big 12 gets dissolved and suddenly these programs are out there for the taking, the key hurdle for any SEC expansion would be to figure out exactly what happens with their historic television contract with ESPN. It is unlikely that ESPN is just going to pony up another $17 million a year for each new member, so do the member schools all agree to just take a smaller piece of the pie? Quite unlikely, although maybe if Texas is part of the package, ESPN would be more apt to sweeten the pot. But Texas seems particularly unwilling to join the SEC due to their desire to maintain some pretense towards remaining in rarefied academic company. In the end, this really doesn’t change the first major decision that SEC commissioner Mike Slive and the presidents and athletic directors of the member institutions need to make: is expansion even realistic financially for the conference at this point? And if the answer there is yes, then the SEC can start comparing their numerous options from both the Big 12 (Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M), ACC (Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami) and even the Big East (Louisville, West Virginia).

Effect on Big East Expansion

The only major effect a Pac-16 would have on the Big East is if it provided further incentive for the Big Ten to raid a significant number of Big East football schools, a prospect that is perhaps already in the works. There is a scenario where this could be a good thing for the Big East, however. Say the Pac-16 happens, and the Big Ten decides to snatch up free agent Nebraska in addition to Missouri. If the Big Ten is really not interested in going any further than 16 teams, perhaps they can convince Notre Dame to come on board and grab just two of the remaining Big East teams. In that scenario, the Big East only has to find two football replacements to get back to the eight teams necessary to retain the possibility of automatic BCS qualifying status, maybe snatching up teams like Central Florida and Memphis to get back to eight while providing geographic partners for schools like South Florida and Louisville. In the end, the Big East is still in a precarious position, but there may be a little glimmer of hope in this news for them.

Big 12 Meetings Wrap-up

While there is still plenty going on behind the scenes that needs to get sorted out before we have any definitive answers, this newest rumor is a bombshell, to say the least. However, Beebe got it just exactly perfect on Tuesday at the start of the Big 12 meetings when he said: “I think it’s very serious. And I think it’s something that we better be very careful about. If we come to a day where there are four 16-member conferences, then it’s going to be a sad day, and it’s going to be very difficult to not have more legal issues and interventions. The pressures will be immense for certain programs to be successful, (and) there will be less chances to win conference championships and national championships.” He’s right about that, and yet just three days later, we may be on the verge of taking that next step towards that very scenario.

]]> http://rushthecourt.net/2010/06/03/realignment-rumors-on-todays-pac-10big-12-rumblings/feed/ 4 http://rushthecourt.net/2010/05/25/morning-five-05-25-10-edition/ http://rushthecourt.net/2010/05/25/morning-five-05-25-10-edition/#comments Tue, 25 May 2010 07:04:31 +0000 rtmsf http://rushthecourt.net/?p=21728

1. Some transfer news from the weekend…  Two of the bigger names in college basketball from a celebrity perspective are leaving their respective schools.  Guard Jeff Jordan (MJ’s son, in case you hadn’t heard) is leaving Illinois for his senior season a mere year after he quit the team and returned the first time.  We’re not sure what exactly the deal is with the somewhat indecisive Jordan, but the word is that he’s looking for more PT than the fourteen minutes per game he received last year for the Illini.  The other big transfer name belongs to Percy Miller, aka Lil Romeo, the hip-hop star who presumably sold a lot more albums than he scored points (5) in his two-year USC Trojan career.  The subject of one of RTC’s first-ever posts (#3 actually), it’s not clear whether he will try to continue playing college basketball elsewhere or give it up completely.
2. Moving to players that actually matter at this level, former Washington guard Elston Turner will re-surface at Texas A&M beginning in 2011-12 and LSU star guard Bo Spencer will be ineligible for the fall semester next season as a result of academic problems.  Turner will have two years of eligibility in College Station, while Spencer will have an opportunity to return to his team next winter if he can get his books in order.
3. The final notable piece of news with players leaving is that Florida’s Nimrod Tishman is leaving the Gator program after only one year in Gainesville.  He is returning to Israel to play professionally, causing mass lamentations throughout the SEC fanbases from Fayetteville to Columbia.
4. Is the one-year renewable scholarship a bigger problem than we, or anyone, knows?  If you buy USA Today’s report that over 20% of athletes on the 65 NCAA teams leave the program in a given year, it just might be.  We’d never really given it much thought other than when a new coach comes into town and runs everyone off (see: Calipari, John), but maybe we should start paying attention to this a little more.
5. We always thought something didn’t smell quite right with the universally-liked and respected Tyler Smith being caught with a firearm in a rental car on New Year’s Day.  Smith finally came out and said that he purchased the gun based on death threats that he was receiving about his three-year old son.  He didn’t go into details as to whom was making the threats or why they would be making them, but he’s now back in Tennessee after playing professionally in Turkey for a few months and waiting to see if his name is called next month in the NBA Draft.

1. Horrid news from Texas, as Texas A&M recruit and current prep senior Tobi Oyedeji died from injuries sufffered when the Toyota Avalon he was driving veered out of his lane and hit another car head-on at 6:15 am yesterday morning, killing the other driver as well as himself.  He was heading home after his senior prom and an after-party at a local Dave & Buster’s.  We hate to wildly speculate about this without knowing the facts, but we are very hopeful that his toxicity screening comes back negative.  A tragedy like this one doesn’t need additional reasons to hate everything about it.  RIP young fella.
2. This Chicago Tribune article about Big Ten expansion hones in on just how impressively the Big Ten Network has grown in its three-year existence.  The mere fact that we’re discussing expansion as a proximate cause of the success of the channel in such a short period of time shows the phenomenal foresight that the conference had to take the substantial risk and initiate this endeavor.  It’s potentially paying off in droves now.
3. While we’re on the topic of expansion, this is an interesting article we stumbled across that considers the endgame if the major NCAA football schools eventually break away from the rest of the organization.  NCAA Tournament stalwarts like Siena and Butler would no longer be a part of the Madness, a frightening proposition for those of us who think the little guys make up so much of the magic of the Tournament.
4. Mike DeCourcy points out some of the expected impact transfers we should all keep an eye on in 2010-11.  Speaking of transfers, 6’11 JuCo Eloy Vargas from Miami-Dade CC picked Kentucky as his destination of choice, likely vaulting John Calipari’s recruiting haul to the #1 spot for the second year in a row at the school.  Vargas began his career at rival Florida two years ago, seeing spot time in nine games prior to injuring his ankle and missing the rest of the 2008-09 season.
5. Last week the Hartford Courant listed some of the game’s top coaching salaries in light of Jim Calhoun’s new $13M, five-year contract.  This list is not exhaustive, as several coaches at private schools such as Coach K at Duke and Jim Boeheim at Syracuse are undoubtedly also in this range, but it is interesting to see nevertheless.

Average yearly salaries for some other men’s basketball coaches
John Calipari, Kentucky – $3.95 million (8 years for $31.65 million in 2009)
Billy Donovan, Florida – $3.3 million (6 years for $21 million in 2007)
Bill Self, Kansas – $3 million (10 years for $30 million)
Tom Izzo, Michigan State – $2.6 million (7-year extension in 2009)
Thad Matta, Ohio State – $2.5 million (10-year extension in 2006)
Tom Crean, Indiana – $2.36 million (10 years for $23.6 million in 2008)
Bruce Pearl, Tennessee – $2.3 million (6-year extension in 2008)
Rick Pitino, Louisville – $2.25 million (6 years for $13.5 million in 2007)
Rick Barnes, Texas – $2.15 million (10-year extension in 2007)
Roy Williams, North Carolina – $2.11 million (10-year extension in 2005)

Much has been made of the Big Ten’s interest in expanding beyond their current 11 teams and all the consequences that such expansion could have on other conferences throughout the country. But, given that the other BCS conferences are multi-million dollar organizations and that the continued competitiveness and even existence of these organizations may depend on their actions both before and after the Big Ten comes to its decision, it should come as no surprise that conference commissioners and athletic directors of their respective member institutions are considering their options in a game of moves and countermoves. It is probably no coincidence that the first speculative report to surface indicating that the Big Ten has made its choices and offered up its first invitations came on the heels of reports at the end of last week that the Big 12 and Pac-10 had met to discuss a possible alliance, a big innovation that makes a lot of sense for both conferences.

Big 12/Pac-10

Representatives from the two conferences met in Phoenix last Wednesday in what Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe described as “an informal meeting” to discuss a possible alliance. The two main planks of this possible alliance are rumored to be scheduling preferences in the future and, most importantly, joint television negotiations and ventures. As rumors have swirled of the Big Ten and possibly SEC poaching some Big 12 teams, and with the Pac-10 exploring its own expansion options, a “strategic alliance,” between the two conferences, as Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott put it, could be a boon to both.

The conference generals will do what they have to do in the spirit of self-preservation.

Aside from the potential benefits that an alliance between the conferences could bring, there is a lot of common ground between the two, as they are the only two BCS conferences made up entirely of member schools located west of the Mississippi and Pac-10 deputy commissioner Kevin Weiberg was Beebe’s predecessor at the Big 12. Weiberg was also instrumental in helping launch the Big Ten Network, a bit of experience that may come in handy as these two conferences discuss possibly launching a network of their own, a joint venture between the two that would allow them to show more (or potentially all) of their football and basketball games that don’t get picked up by national or regional networks.

With both conferences facing expiring television contracts at the end of 2012, each conference is looking to find its way into new television contracts with revenues that are competitive with what the Big Ten and SEC have going for them. Current Big Ten member schools receive around $20 million in television revenue each year, with the SEC having just signed a contract with ESPN that would pay member schools approximately $17 million a year. The expiring Big 12 and Pac-10 contracts pay member schools between $7 million and $12 million each. An alliance between the two conferences, however, would offer potential bidders roughly one-third of the nation’s TV market and six of the nation’s top 14 media markets (Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, Houston, Seattle-Tacoma and Phoenix). That would certainly be an attractive option for ESPN/ABC, Fox, or other networks. Likewise, a Big 12/Pac-10 television network would be an intriguing addition to cable and satellite television providers, showcasing not only the highly competitive football and basketball played in each conference, but also baseball and other non-revenue/Olympic sports in which the conferences excel.

We wonder who else may end up getting friendly as a result of all this expansion talk.

In addition to the benefits involving TV negotiations, there is the possibility of preferred scheduling between the two conferences. While the two conferences already have the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series which creates non-conference basketball matchups between the schools in each conference, additional scheduling preferences in football would be a huge incentive for bidders. Potential early-season football matchups like Texas/USC or California/Oklahoma would be very interesting to not only fans, but advertisers as well. There is even the potential for rotating home-and-home football games between all member institutions of the two conferences. Picture USC playing home and away against Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Nebraska and Missouri over the course of a decade. Additional basketball games between the two conferences could also be in the works.

For the time being, an alliance is as far as anyone is willing to go; there will not be a merger of the two conferences at this stage, although events outside of these two conferences could cause that possibility to be considered in the future. However, for now, as Beebe put it, “We feel like 12 is the maximum number that operates well in football,” a line that can be seen either as a pointed dig at the Big Ten or evidence of Beebe’s state of denial about the Big Ten’s plans. Beebe is not the only figure in the Big 12 who appears to be in denial, as Baylor athletic director Ian McCaw has said “I’ll be surprised if the Big Ten expands beyond 12 schools. There are a lot of reasons they won’t go past 12.” That type of underestimating of the Big Ten’s intentions and the possible fallout afterwards is something that could get the Big 12 relegated to history books, but an alliance with the Pac-10 could give the Big 12 a lifeline and make the conference a better option for schools like Nebraska and Missouri.

Elsewhere in expansion/conference realignment news:

Big Ten

As mentioned above, Sports Radio WHB 810 AM in Kansas City reported on Monday that the Big Ten has issued invitations to Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska and Rutgers, with the idea being that if all four decide to join, they will invite a fifth team to fill out a full 16 slots, but that if just three of the four join, 14 will suffice. Never mind that the Big Ten likely would never have issued the invitations if they didn’t already know the answers, and the fact that no one else is reporting it as true; the story has received a lot of attention, if only for the numerous denials the story triggered. If this story is even remotely true, we’ll know quite a bit more about it soon, as the Big Ten coaches and athletic directors will meet May 17-19, and presidents and chancellors will meet the first week in June, both in Chicago.

ACC

ACC commissioner John Swofford said that the ACC will not be proactive in expansion, but will be ready to respond to any situations that may arise.

SEC

Former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer acknowledges that the extent of Big Ten expansion could cause the SEC to initiate expansion of their own. Moreover, current SEC commissioner Mike Slive said that while he is very comfortable with where the SEC is at right now, if there’s going to be a significant shift in the conference paradigm, the SEC will be strategic and thoughtful in order to maintain its position as one of the nation’s premier conferences.”

12:10 pm – #1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga  (Buffalo pod)

In the CBS national game to start the day, everyone will get this very enticing game between Syracuse and Gonzaga.  Given the way this year is winding up, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Orange without their big man Arinze Onuaku found itself on the short end of the score around 2:30 pm today.  But we still have faith in Syracuse even without the talented center and we think that Jim Boeheim’s team is too good to fall short of the Final Four this early.  The primary problem that the Zags are going to have is one they didn’t have to worry as much about with Florida State, and that is in stopping the powerful SU offense.  With offensive scoring threats at all five positions, Syracuse is in a far more advantageous position than FSU was (with their limited offense) when Gonzaga caught fire on Friday — if the Zags want to get into a shootout with Syracuse, that’s not likely to end well for them. Still, with the way the Big East has had so many early round troubles, and the WCC looking great with St. Mary’s already in the Sweet Sixteen, we’re not ready to dismiss the Zags based on that alone.  The Syracuse zone is likely to be something that Mark Few’s team has not seen with such athletes all season, so even with their ability to put the ball in the hole, we hesitate to think the Zags can consistently score on it.

The Skinny: Gonzaga will push the Orange, but we still like this team to advance and make a serious push for the national title in coming weeks.

2:20 pm – #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech  (Milwaukee pod)

You might not see it on their faces, but the Buckeyes are smiling.  Northern Iowa’s removal of Kansas puts Ohio State in the driver’s seat in the Midwest region.  That said, there’s still no way Thad Matta and Evan Turner are going to let the rest of that team look past their opponents and assume an open road to Indianapolis.  Good thing, because Georgia Tech showed us that they’re not just made up of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal and a bunch of suckers.  The Yellow Jackets shot 2-10 from the three point line but balanced that by holding Big 12 player of the year James Anderson to a 3-12 shooting night, 0-6 from beyond the three-point arc, and an overall 11 points.  But the most impressive aspect of Georgia Tech’s performance on Friday night — by FAR — was the fact that they went to the free throw line 25 times — and hit 24 of them!  It wasn’t just Lawal and Favors.  Tech played nine players, and eight of them shot at least one free throw.  Evan Turner isn’t just the player of the year in his conference, though — he’s likely the national POY, so the Tech task is that much tougher.  Turner wasn’t himself in their first round game against UCSB, going 2-13 and posting only nine points (though he did contribute 10 boards and five assists).  He’s looking to break out, and knows he’ll have to be at his best.  Lawal and Favors, though, will be looking to get Dallas Lauderdale, Jon Diebler, and Turner in foul trouble early and open poke some holes in that OSU front line.

The Skinny:  You probably don’t want to go with our Midwest picks, since yesterday we took Kansas and Ohio.  It’s not exactly going out on a limb to say that this will be a great second round game, but that stat line of Turner’s shows you that he can play such an important role on the team even when he’s not scoring.  For Tech to win, they’d have to turn in a similar performance at the free throw line, keep Turner under wraps and coax him into a supporting role again, and cool down Jon Diebler.  That’s a tough trifecta to pull off.  We don’t see it happening.  But we didn’t see Northern Iowa dismissing Kansas, either.

2:30 pm – #4 Maryland vs. #5 Michigan State  (Spokane pod)

We bet some scouts and film guys are working overtime for these two teams, not only gathering extra film on their opponent on Sunday, but also erasing all that Kansas game film to make room for some material on Northern Iowa!  This will be interesting not just because it looks like one of the funnest matchups on paper, but because of what we saw in each team’s first round game.  Michigan State seemed as if they were already looking forward to playing Maryland as opposed to worrying about New Mexico State.  Some would even say that the only reason they got by the Aggies is because of a controversial lane violation call (our opinion: if a ref sees something, he has to call it, no matter the teams or the time) from which the Spartans benefited.  That aside, in the post-game press conference, Tom Izzo didn’t look like Tom Izzo.  You could see the worry and a little bit of surprise.  Maryland, however, didn’t exactly have an easy time against Houston but it wasn’t as tough a game as it looked.  Greivis Vasquez looked more than content to let Aubrey Coleman and Kelvin Lewis go crazy for the Cougars and grab all the scoring headlines, take a back seat in scoring to teammates Landon Milbourne and Jordan Williams, and collect assists and rebounds.  Michigan State rode Kalin Lucas‘ career high of 25 points to that first round victory, and they can’t let it get to that point against the Terps.  The Spartans as a team didn’t shoot very well (20-53, 37.7%), and they let NMSU hang with them on the boards.  That’s MSU’s calling card, especially at tournament time.

The Skinny:  The one who dictates tempo will win.  And Maryland seems to have more of a sense of purpose than does Michigan State right now.  We thought we’d see a little more spring in the Spartans’ collective step as the tournament began, but it wasn’t there.  Another great second round game, but we see Maryland getting out to an early lead, Michigan State closing the gap in the second half, but the Terps pulling it out in the end.  We always hesitate to go against Izzo and his boys in early round games, but this MSU team looks a little confused right now.

2:40 pm – #2 West Virginia vs. #10 Missouri  (Buffalo pod)

Besides being the stronger overall team with a plethora of options, West Virginia has a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. Even before Justin Safford tore his ACL, the Tigers weren’t a strong rebounding team and often found themselves with a size disadvantage against Big 12 opponents. Missouri ranks #329 in the nation in preventing offensive rebounds from their opponents, a concerning stat for Mike Anderson given that the Mountaineers come in at second in the nation in offensive rebounding. Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones, Wellington Smith and the other West Virginia bruisers could have a field day on the boards. It’ll take a yeomen’s effort from Laurence Bowers and Keith Ramsey to keep the second chance points from getting out of hand. Where Missouri cancels out these types of numbers is with their suffocating press and forcing turnovers. The Tigers stand at third in the nation in steal% and second in the nation in turnover% defensively. Missouri will need to force Joe Mazzulla and the many West Virginia ballhandlers into traps and turnovers to keep the game from remaining in the halfcourt. They’ll also need hot shooting days from Kim English and Marcus Denmon.

Skinny: This seems like a poor matchup for Missouri. They may be able to stick around given West Virginia’s tendency to let their opponents hang, but second chance points and the shooting of Butler will vault the Mountaineers into the Sweet 16, a stage Bob Huggins doesn’t often reach.

2:50 pm – #4 Wisconsin vs. #12 Cornell  (Jacksonville pod)

Rather than the lower seeded Cornell surviving a scare in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, it was heavy favorite Wisconsin grinding out a 40-minute victory over Wofford to earn the right to advance. The Badgers received major contributions late from their junior forward Jon Leuer, a player they’ll need to step up once again in order to play in the Sweet 16. The key for Cornell will be the effectiveness of their seven foot center Jeff Foote. The Badgers have a severe matchup issue with Foote; their big men, Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, may be 6’10 but they like to drift towards the perimeter and may not be able to contain the Cornell behemoth in the post. Foote features an array of nifty moves on the block and could give the Badger big men headaches. In the end, this game should come down to who makes more three pointers. Both teams love to shoot from downtown, whether it be Trevon Hughes or Jordan Taylor for the Badgers or Ryan Wittman and Louis Dale for the Big Red. While Wisconsin does boast a top ten defensive efficiency on the season, they don’t guard the long range shot particularly well. Cornell’s overall defense and three-point defense happens to be even worse.

Skinny: I thought it would be Jimmer Fredette, but Ryan Wittman could be the budding star from this NCAA Tournament that turns into a household name. I expect another big performance from the Cornell senior in a close win where each possession is vital.

4:50 pm – #3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Xavier  (Milwaukee pod)

This is a rematch of last year’s regional semifinal game that Pittsburgh won, but very few of the players who played in that game are still in the fold.  The three primary players on this year’s Pittsburgh team — Jermaine Dixon, Brad Wannamaker, Ashton Gibbs and Gilbert Brown — combined to score 17 points in last year’s win, while XU’s returnees — Dante Jackson, Jason Love, Kenny Frease and Terrell Holloway — scored just 15.  Of course, Xavier has added a superstar player in Jordan Crawford, who blew up on Minnesota in the first round for 28/6/5 assts, and Pittsburgh has had a miraculous year with a bunch of guys who were merely role players last season.  Both of these squads looked very impressive in their first round games, but in a battle of really strong defenses, we like the fact that Xavier has a few more offensive options than Pitt does in this one.

The Skinny: In a tight defensive battle, we like Xavier to outlast Pitt in a revenge game for the ages.

5:00 pm – #4 Purdue vs. #5 Texas A&M  (Spokane pod)

The Boilermakers come into this game having knocked off a Siena team that a lot of the betting/bracketeing public probably picked to win that first round match-up. In doing show they showed a lot of people that they do have heart, which is something that Matt Painter had questioned earlier this season even when they had Robbie Hummel. The Aggies prevailed in the first round against their namesakes from Utah State thanks in large part to relentless defensive pressure and an unexpected contribution from freshman Khris Middleton who scored a career-high 19 points. Don’t expect Middleton to match those numbers against the Boilermakers, but you can count on the Aggies bringing their defense again. The Aggies will be chasing Purdue around every screen they try to throw at them and will provide a very different look than what the Boilermakers saw against Siena. You can expect a physical game which the Aggies prefer, but I am not sure anybody on the Boilermakers does with the exception of Chris Kramer. The key match-ups to watch in this one are on the inside where JaJuan Johnson will battle against Bryan Davis and on the perimeter where Kramer will attempt to slow down Donald Sloan, the one consistent scoring option for Mark Turgeon. The one wildcard in this match-up is E’Twaun Moore who has struggled recently, but could carry the Boilermakers into the Sweet 16.

The Skinny: Look for the Aggies to advance to Houston unless Moore or Johnson go off, which could happen, but we wouldn’t bet on it.

5:15 pm – #1 Duke vs. #8 California  (Jacksonville pod)

How’s your bracket?  Probably looking pretty sweet if you went to undergrad at St. Mary’s and then took a master’s at Northern Iowa.  Have they stopped partying at UNI yet?  Or campaniling?  Or whatever they do there?  And if not, who could blame them?

That was yesterday, though.  The Panthers and Gaels will be receiving their Official Cinderella starter handbooks in the mail in a couple of days, so the matter now turns to the Sunday games, and any possible candidates that could join them.  Your lineup:

• #1 Syracuse vs #8 Gonzaga
• #2 Ohio State vs #10 Georgia Tech
• #4 Maryland vs #5 Michigan State
• #2 West Virginia vs #10 Missouri
• #4 Wisconsin vs #12 Cornell
• #3 Pittsburgh vs #6 Xavier
• #4 Purdue vs #5 Texas A&M
• #1 Duke vs #8 California

Will Northern Iowa’s dismissal of Kansas inspire other underdogs to greater heights?  Or will it cause the higher seeds to sharpen their focus and be even warier of the upstarts?  Keep in mind, things always start and end a tad earlier on Second Round Sunday, and there’s that glut of four games that all start within 30 minutes of each other in the early afternoon.  But no worry, if you can’t see them all — we’ll be here all day, talking about them, updating this post every few minutes, and looking for your comments.  Hard to believe we’ll have whittled the field of 64 down to 16 by Sunday night, and the events of Saturday should drive the point home that we need to enjoy this while it’s here.  We’re here to help.  We’ll start updating the post a few minutes before the first tipoff, and we hope to see you here.

12:00: Here we go, folks!  Day 2, second round.  The day starts with ‘Cuse/’Zags and you see the rest of the lineup above.  Syracuse, Duke, Ohio State…you’ve been put on notice by Northern Iowa.  Let’s see what happens.

12:10: One thing that’s got to make you happy if you’re a Syracuse fan is that Wesley Johnson is being VERY aggressive with the basketball.  Hit his first two.

12:18: See, I don’t think Matt Boldin needs to fire from three for the Zags to put their best foot forward, today.  I think they’ll be better off if he does more creating and dishing, and we know he picks up points that way.

12:27: Goodness, right now it’s Wesley Johnson versus Elias Harris.  Johnson has Syracuse’s first ten and Harris has just made the baseline his second home.

12:33: Third foul on Rick Jackson.  Robert Sacre is smiling.  That’s one of the worst things that could happen for the Orange.

12:38: Is it just me or can you tell that Gus Johnson is ready to bust over something…anything?  Scoop Jardine has shown that he has no problem knifing through a 2-3 zone.  That’s the second time he’s penetrated with almost no problem or contact.

12:45: That’s a big three by Steven Gray.  Syracuse looked like they were calmly going to stretch this out to a ten or twelve point lead by halftime.  GREAT tweet by John Gasaway — Gonzaga almost always scores when the ball touches the paint.

12:53: Well, that’s a 9-0 run by Syracuse, and that 10-12 run I was talking about before halftime is now 13.  Oddly, Wesley Johnson has been left open twice on the perimeter.  Might want to consider doing something about that.

1:00: Is this over?  Syracuse put their foot on the Gonzagan throat to close that half.  15-2 to go into the locker room.  We all know that upsets are not borne from comebacks.  They happen when an upstart team gets an early lead, starts to believe, and withstands the “big team’s” run at the end.  Gonzaga would really have to buck tradition to make this comeback.  The first 4-5 minutes will tell the tale.

1:20: Syracuse still has their foot on the gas.  Syracuse is 9-18 from three.  The Zags are 2-12.  And there’s your ballgame.

1:32: Matt — I honestly don’t know.  This is as one-sided as the Kentucky vs Wake game last night.  I don’t know how the Bulldogs are going to defend this bunch.  I don’t know how ANYbody could defend them when they’re playing like this.  They’ve held Boldin to two field goals and the first one came, what, three minutes ago?

1:36: I thought one part of the Zags’ game plan would be to really crash the offensive glass.  When playing a zone, because there’s no man-to-man assignment, when you’re on defense and a shot goes up, there’s that split-second where you have to turn and find a man to box out, and sometimes offensive players are left unchecked or can attack the glass in that split-second.  No signs of that from the Zags.

1:46: Keep in mind, this is all without Arinze Onuaku.  Yeesh.

1:51: For some perspective…enjoy these shooting percentages.  Syracuse: 25-43 (58.1%) from the field, 12-23 (52.2%) from three.  Gonzaga:  21-51 (41.2%) from the field…but 3-20 (15%) from three.

1:59: The refs have evidently stopped calling some things.  Gonzaga could have been called for a charge, a push, and a goal tend in the last three minutes, and the refs let them all go.  Jim Boeheim’s slowly removing his starters to thunderous applause.  Which brings up the point…is this fair?  Syracuse is 2.5 hours away from Buffalo.  The other number one seeds had to do at least a LITTLE traveling to their first/second round sites.  Kansas had to go to Oklahoma City, Duke had to go to Jacksonville, and Kentucky had to go all the way to New Orleans.  And Syracuse was considered the last #1 seed by the committee’s own words.  Would anything have changed if Syracuse had to travel a little bit?

2:07: Wes Johnson’s double-double is not just a double-double. 31-13 is a THICK one.  Gotta wonder why he’s still in the game, though.  The announcers went to filler material ten minutes ago.  This is a 20-point game, and it’s not THAT close.

2:14: OK, finally…another game.  And this one looks dangerous.  I’ve got a feeling about this Georgia Tech team today.  Maybe it’s just the Midwest Mayhem.

2:25: Already, Ohio State’s shown GT a 2-3 and a 1-3-1 zone in an attempt to clamp down on the GT bigs and keep the guards guessing.  Interesting move by Thad Matta, but understandable.  Now, that three from D’Andre Bell is something I thought we’d see just a LITTLE more from GT…they actually shoot it pretty well.  I know you don’t want to stray too far from the inside game when you have big guys like Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors.  Now it looks like they gave Bell a two.  Oh well, still applies.

2:35: The game just changed.  Favors with his second foul with only about 6 minutes gone.  Trouble for Tech.

2:37: GOOD GRAVY, GANI LAWAL.  Two HUGE dunks by the Georgia Tech big man!  Products of great dishes from the guards.  But WOW, both in traffic.

2:46: Now we’ve tipped off at Mizzou-WVU.  Gus sounds primed.  At OSU-GT, Evan Turner’s hit a couple of shots to close the lead but he’s 2-7 right now.

2:49: Maryland and Michigan State have been underway for about five minutes now.  This is going to be hard to follow.  I’ll be keeping an eye on the scores and watching for close games, but anyone have a preference on which game I monitor, i.e. one you’re not getting?

2:51: Michigan State looks like a different team.  Definitely more focused and it doesn’t help Maryland that Jordan Williams is on the pine with two fouls.  You don’t want those MSU bigs going against the second and third string.  Lawal just took his second foul against the Buckeyes.  GT in early foul trouble.

2:56: Cornell-Wisconsin have tipped.  I hate this four-games-at-once format on Second Round Sunday.  Back when there was no DirecTV, it didn’t matter.  But now it does.

3:01: Cornell looks fierce early!  Jon Jaques and Ryan Wittman have each hit a three and Wisconsin’s Jon Leuer is the only Badger to have taken a shot so far.  The Big Red have an early 11-2 lead.

3:05: Rungun: OSU-GT it is, then.  OSU up 26-22 after a 7-0 run.  GT looks vulnerable and a little shaken because of the foul trouble right now.  Turner’s now 6-14 and is starting to assert himself.

3:11: Look at this!  Brad Sheehan comes into the game for Tech because of the Jackets’ foul troubles, and gets an and-one, drawing the second foul on David Lighty.  Strange play to end the half — Iman Shumpert put an elbow in Evan Turner’s face and called an offensive foul right at the buzzer, and GT didn’t get a shot off.  0.7 seconds got put back onto the clock, and we’ll see if OSU can get a shot off.

3:15: Jon Diebler got a good look at a three — but missed it.  OSU leads 28-26 at the half.  I’m going over to Michigan State-Maryland while the OSU-GT game is at the half.  MSU-Maryland is a pretty high-scoring affair and it’s the next game to go to halftime.

3:21: Missouri’s pressure is getting to West Virginia a little.  Mizzou has managed to come back and tie that one at 25 about three minutes before the half.  Back to MSU-Maryland…Korie Lucious grabs an offensive board and hits a long two just before the half to make it 48-39 Spartans at the half.  Raymar Morgan has had a great game for MSU so far, with 13 points on 5-8 shooting.  Those teams are a combined 8-15 from three, and that’s with Greivis Vasquez on the pine for a while because of foul trouble.

3:31: WVU and Mizzou go to the half at 30-25 in favor of the Mountaineers behind Da’Sean Butler’s 19, though it’s on 4-10 from the field.  Missouri is hanging on because of their pressing defense having generated some turnovers in the middle of the first half.

3:36: Amazed by Cornell again.  Not only are they hitting threes (as usual), they’re also getting inside on the Badgers and getting easy layins.  They’re actually up by ten, 41-31, and they’ll get the last shot of the half…

3:39: …and Ryan Wittman hits a long two to make it a twelve point lead!  Isn’t 43-31 a full-game score for Wisconsin?  I don’t know if they can make up a ten-point lead in a half, with Cornell playing like this and the molasses-like offense for which they’re famous.

3:50: Back in action in Milwaukee with Ohio State going on a 7-0 run coming out of the break.  As we talked about in our analysis for today’s games, OSU has to be looking a little bit ahead with Kansas and Georgetown already torpedoed.  Is anyone else unsurprised by the Michigan State – Maryland score?  If this holds, we’re probably looking at a Big Ten rematch between the two best teams in the league for a trip to the Final Four.  Still a lot of time left in both games though.

3:59: WVU is still up four points on Missouri but they haven’t had a FG in the last TEN minutes of action.  Nobody seemed to be giving Mizzou much of a chance to win this game for some reason, but the Tigers appear poised to stay in this one till the end.  Over at OSU-GT, the Yellow Jackets just went on a 7-0 run themselves to cut it back to seven points, and Michigan State is still holding off Maryland.

4:06: Ohio State on another run here.  They just look way too dialed in versus a team that’s young and inconsistent to give it up at this point.  Mizzou can’t hit much of anything, but their defense is solid enough to make a run if things start clicking a little better.  Meanwhile, every time I look over at Michigan State, they’re hitting a three as a result of the Maryland press.

4:12: Wisconsin is still down fourteen to Cornell, but Ohio State and Michigan State appear to be pulling away.  Strong day for the Big Ten regardless if this holds.  Da’Sean Butler is doing his thing for WVU, now with 19 of the Mountaineers’ 42 total points.  We get the feeling that Missouri is just one 6-0 run fueled by a couple of turnovers from making this into a completely different game.

4:21: So it looks like we’re going to have a #9, #10, #11 and #12 into the Sweet Sixteen this year.  And suddenly Georgia Tech has made a run to put pressure on the Buckeyes.  An 11-0 run has brought GT to only down four with 1:47 remaining.

4:27: David Lighty gets hammered by Brian Oliver on a breakaway, but he popped back up.  Honestly, we don’t believe that Oliver was trying to intentionally hurt Lighty there, he just got into the air himself and the angle was bad.  Totally understand why it has to be called, though.  OSU should put this one away from the line and move on to face Tennessee.

4:45: Amazing comeback by Maryland to take the lead over Michigan State, followed by a Vasquez floater, and then Korie Lucious with the big-time three to win it at the buzzer!  The pass from Draymond Green over to Lucious very nearly hit another MSU player in the head (he had to duck!), but Michigan State will move on after nearly blowing a late lead.

4:52: Is there another amazing comeback in Buffalo here?  Probably not after the beautiful offense rebound off a FT miss by Da’Sean Butler.  WVU up seven with a minute to go.  Mizzou needs some threes.

5:25: Didn’t happen.  WVU outlasted Missouri and will advance, saving a little face for the Big East in the process.  Cornell finished off Wisconsin easily, which is making Jay Bilas look smarter by the minute. Meanwhile, we’ve got three games starting up here, with Xavier-Pitt, A&M-Purdue and Duke-Cal on the three tv/computer setup.

5:33: Interesting start to the Duke-Cal game.  Patrick Christopher has to go out immediately with blood somewhere on his body, while Duke goes on a 6-0 run which is immediately followed by a Cal 6-0 run.  A&M and Purdue are tight early, while Xavier-Pitt are in their expected slugfest already.

5:40: Good lord, what does Christopher have over there, a razor cut on his head?  Get some leeches over there and stitch him up.

5:46: Cal’s Sanders-Frison laying waste to the interior to create driving lanes for the Bear guards on the last couple of possessions.  We’re already seeing the size advantage that Duke has making a difference, though.  A&M is still having trouble scoring on their game and XU has run up on Pitt by seven.

5:54: Cal’s defense isn’t going to hold up here if they keep allowing Duke to get great looks like the last few possessions.  This is starting to get a little ugly so I’m switching focus over to A&M-Purdue for a little while.

5:58: Amazing stat that Cornell has hit 59% in its two games so far.  Against the Wisconsin and Temple defenses???  They are playing at an extremely high level right now.  Kentucky would do well to not overlook this team next week.

6:06: A&M and Purdue can’t hit very much from the field, but they’re both battling hard and the Boilers can’t win this game with JaJuan Johnson putting up an oh-fer like he is so far.  With a couple of threes in the last minute-plus, though, A&M is going to take a lead into the half.

6:11: That last play by Jerome Randle on the Cal-Duke game illustrates the problem the Bears have here.  Their only shot to win is if they make outside shots, and they are finding that the defense Duke plays on the perimeter is significantly better than that of Louisville.  Back at A&M-Purdue, Dash Harris was just fouled on a three attempt with 0.9 on the clock, sending him to the line for three freebies going into the half.  Make that two freebies, as the middle shot drew nothing but floor.

6:26: Xavier is back on against Pittsburgh, and this provides me an opportunity to again talk about just how amazing the XU program is on a yearly basis.  Lose your coach to Arizona?  No problem.  Lose three star players?  No problem.  They are one of the most consistent programs in America, regardless of conference affiliation.

6:35: Back to Cal-Duke, and the Devils are just too big for the Bears inside.  Getting offensive rebounds and challenging shots inside.  I’ll keep an eye on this one to see if Cal starts hitting some threes, but mainly I’ll be checking the other two games.  A&M up seven and Xavier up eight.

6:46: Pitt is almost all the way back after a 12-0 run here to get it within one.  Texas A&M is pushing Purdue around and starting to pull away from Purdue.  Amazing stat is that Purdue just went to the line for its first FT of the game!

6:52: Game of runs.  As soon as I typed that last sentence, Purdue went on an 14-2 run of its own to get back into it and take the lead.  The threes finally started dropping for Purdue and we’ve got a game there.  Cal got it back within seven of Duke, but they can’t handle the Blue Devil size so they’re back down fifteen with no signs of life.

7:00: Thanks to a ridiculous shot by Terrell Holloway falling to the floor on the release, Xavier has re-taken control in their game against Pitt.  Still some time in that one, though — around six minutes left.

7:01: Purdue is hitting everything right now.  Another three and it’s now a 17-2 run for the Boilers.  You have to love the heart of Matt Painter’s team to keep battling despite the loss of Hummel at the end of this season.

7:08: Xavier with a breakaway dunk by Jordan Crawford is followed by a Gilbert Brown three.  XU still up four with 1:22 remaining though.  Speaking of everyone’s favorite Lebron-dunker, is Jordan Crawford becoming what his older brother, Joe, was supposed to be?

7:12: The Purdue defense is winning this game for the Boilermakers right now.  By my count, they’re on a 26-8 run and A&M is getting nothing easy.  Quick check-in on Duke-Cal finds the Devils up 19 and the game effectively in the books.  Two other relatively close ones right now, though.

7:16: Gilbert Brown for Pitt nails a giant three to keep his team’s hopes alive.  If this holds, only two of the eight Big East teams will make it to the second weekend of action.  Ouch.  Over in Purdue-A&M, we’re still at a two-point Purdue lead with two minutes to go.  Anybody’s game there, but Chris Kramer has been awesome with his defensive play to help his team get back into it this half.

7:20: Wow.  Gilbert Brown hit another huge three to cut it back to three, and then initially on the inbounds it appeared to be a Xavier turnover.  But the refs changed the call and they still need some help from XU to win this game.  Meanwhile, A&M is back tied and Purdue is inbounding with 59.5 seconds and a 55-all tie.

7:24: Dante Jackson missed BOTH and Pitt had a chance to tie in the air.  It looked on-line but it was a little long and was knocked out of bounds on the carom.  Pitt will have one more shot at it with 0.4 left on the clock.  What will Jamie Dixon come up with here?

7:25: Meanwhile, Purdue dribbled the clock down but A&M got a hand in and ended up calling timeout with 1.1 seconds left.  They’ll have a shot to win themselves in their game.  Couple of wild endings here (what else is new?).

7:29: Apparently Xavier held on even though my CBS feed never went back to check on that game, preferring to stay with Purdue-A&M.  The Aggies will have 1.1 to pass, catch and shoot.  Finish this weekend with another miracle?  Why not?

7:30: Pitt actually got a really nice look to tie there with 0.4 on the clock.  He rushed it a little with good reason so it came up short, and Xavier will move back into the Sweet Sixteen.  Great win for the Muskies, who just continue to impress year after year after year.

7:32: We started the weekend in OT and we’ll end in OT.  BJ Holmes had a little trouble collecting a pass at his feet, but he was still able to turn and give it a pretty good look from about 25 feet.  This one is going to come down to toughness and desire in this overtime session.  It’s a cliche, but it’s true here because of the way these two teams play — who wants it more?

7:36: Really nice start for both teams offensively, with Bryan Davis dunking twice and Chris Kramer going strong to the hole for a bucket and two FTs.  Halfway through the OT and nothing is settled yet.

7:42: Can’t believe that Bryan Davis blew that layup.  Normally that’s automatic for him.  Purdue will have a chance to win here and move the third Big Ten team into the Sweets.

7:44: That layup will haunt Davis forever.  Chris Kramer takes it down the lane and finished with a layup and the ensuing A&M rush upcourt resulted in a three that was short to win at the buzzer.  Wow.  Major props to the Boilermakers for gutting this one out — their season appeared over when Hummel went down a few weeks ago, but even if their ride stops next weekend, they’ve managed to salvage a really nice season out of this.

7:48: Whew.  48 games in a little under 80 hours this weekend, and we were with you every step of the way here.  It’s time to get out the ice, bring over the masseuse and get ready for when things get serious next weekend.  If you were going to redo your brackets, and I seriously need to do that myself, who would you have advancing now?  Ohio State, Syracuse, Kentucky and Duke?  That would be one hell of a Final Four, wouldn’t it?  Ok, take care everyone.  We’ll definitely be back throughout the week leading up to the Sweet Sixteen beginning at around 7pm ET on Thursday night.  What a weekend!

]]> http://rushthecourt.net/2010/03/21/boom-goes-the-dynamite-second-round-03-21-10-edition/feed/ 5 http://rushthecourt.net/2010/03/19/rtc-region-by-region-tidbits-03-19-10/ http://rushthecourt.net/2010/03/19/rtc-region-by-region-tidbits-03-19-10/#comments Sat, 20 Mar 2010 05:59:23 +0000 rtmsf http://rushthecourt.net/?p=20194 Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region.  If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

South Region Notes (Patrick Sellars)

• Everybody expects Baylor to have problems with  Old Dominion’s zone in their second round matchup. The zone ODU ran against Notre Dame in their first round game was one of the key reasons the Monarchs came out on top. Here is a great breakdown of tomorrow’s game from the American Chronicle.
• The Boston Herald takes a look at St. Mary’s center Omar Samhan and how much his opponents respect him , despite the trash talking.
• ESPN’s Brian Bennett questions whether this Duke team is different than the recent Blue Devils teams that lost early in the NCAA tournament.
• Mark Turgeon is one of the best up and coming coaches in college basketball, and here is an article recapping his unique coaching style. As a former Oregon assistant there are whisperings over in Eugene about whether they will offer Turgeon the job, and if he would even consider leaving what he has at Texas A&M.
• The New York Times sums up Cal’s first round win over Louisville. It’s pretty amazing that the Pac-10 is 2-0 in the tournament thus far, both wins coming against Big East teams.

Midwest Region Notes (Tom Hager)

• Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl says that Ohio is a lot like his previous team, UW-Milwaukee.  In addition to being an extremely confident group, they Bobcats rely heavily on three point shooting.
• President Obama is at the 96.6th percentile of ESPN brackets after the first round.  However, he did have Georgetown going to the Elite Eight, so his chances at the grand prize may be less promising.
• For one of the first times all season, Cole Aldrich will be going up against somebody who is actually bigger than him in UNI’s Jordan Eglseder.  The Panthers’ big man was arrested earlier in the year on DUI charges, and his numbers have taken a slight dip since his return, but he will play a huge role in any upset bid by Northern Iowa.
• CBS Sports’ Gregg Doyel said that this Northern Iowa team is like other memorable cinderellas such as George Mason and Davidson.  His reasoning?  He has gone on record saying how UNI has no chance of winning,and that is what he said about the Patriots a few years ago.
• Despite playing for two previous teams before the Bobcats, Mike Freeman says that no player typifies Ohio basketball more than Armon Bassett.  Bassett was a key catalyst for Ohio’s rout of Georgetown, and he has 148 points in his last five games.

East Region Notes (Ryan Restivo from SienaSaintsBlog)

• Don’t look now but Kentucky coach John Calipari said he is concerned about Wake Forest who outrebounded Texas by 25 in their win Thursday. “They got 20 offensive rebounds against Texas, who prides itself in that toughness and that rebounding,” Calipari told the AP. “I just watched tape and, you know, you get sick to your stomach.” The Demon Deacons have momentum and nothing to lose against the Wildcats, the New Orleans Times-Picayune points out.
• Cornell waited for its moment for two years and finally put on a show over Temple using players that were largely overlooked by major college basketball.
• Wisconsin barely survived its first-round game against Wofford, who caught a tough break to end their first NCAA Tournament appearance.
• Is Washington soft? No way. The Seattle Times said Coach Lorenzo Romar let his players play in the final seconds and won the game his way.
• Darington Hobson hurt his wrist but he still has New Mexico thinking big.
• Missouri shut down Clemson’s Trevor Booker in their win today. CBSSports asks, will Bob Huggins and West Virginia be able to handle the pressure?

West Region Notes – (Andrew Murawa)

• While Murray State and its 31 wins didn’t exactly come out of nowhere to beat Vanderbilt in the first round, they know for sure now that they won’t be catching anyone by surprise, especially their second round opponent, Butler.  And even though senior forward Danero Thomas has become an overnight star in the wake of his buzzer-beating game-winner on Thursday, it’s back to business for him and his teammates who still have work to do.
• For its part, Butler will lean heavily on Kentuckian Shelvin Mack to help send the Racers back to Kentucky with just a single NCAA win. The Bulldogs, however, find Murray State to be a very familiar team: a very good college team hidden away in a relatively nondescript Midwest midmajor conference.
• While Jimmer Fredette has more important things on his mind today, BYU fans can look forward to sweating out his NBA draft decision this offseason.  While the Cougars have relied heavily on Fredette this season, it may have been his struggle with mononucleosis in January that helped BYU head coach Dave Rose discover what sophomore Michael Loyd, Jr. could do when given the chance
• Kansas State’s focus on Saturday will be to contest every shot Fredette takes and that challenge will primarily fall to Jacob Pullen. Meanwhile, BYU knows that they’ll need to improve their effectiveness on the glass against the Wildcats after getting outrebounded by Florida on Thursday.
• And, once again, Sunday’s game times have been released, with Syracuse and Gonzaga getting the early spotlight at 12:10pm EDT and Xavier/Pitt among a trio of games wrapping up the first weekend of the tournament with an estimated start-time of 4:50pm.

Here’s the list of roughly thirty or so teams with the strongest efficiency differentials in the 2009-10 season (sorted as such): that far right column is the key number for our purposes.  The greater the efficiency differential, the more dominant a team tends to be.  Remember that both the offensive and defensive efficiency statistics represent the number of points a team scores over 100 possessions of basketball.  +120 is really good for offense, while less than 90 is really good on defense.  Anytime a team’s differential approaches +30 points or more, we’re reaching rarefied air in college basketball.  (note - Pomeroy doesn’t provide historical data prior to past years’ tournaments, but we still think there is some value in looking at his final ratings because the likelihood that a team significantly improves or regresses during the snapshot window of the NCAA Tournament is small).  If you don’t follow Pomeroy regularly, you might be a little surprised at the placement of certain teams versus some others.  Have a look…

 
So what, right?  Well, let’s see if we can use the historical data that we have from Pomeroy to make assessments of this year’s batch of teams and their prospects. 

National Champions

Let’s first take a look at the last five national championship teams.  What jumps out at us immediately is that they’re all offensive juggernauts.  Every one of them is ranked first or second in offensive efficiency.  These teams know how to score the ball.  Defensive efficiency is a little more spotty, but they’re all pretty good (<90 and ranking in the top twenty).  The average differential is really high at 37.4 points per 100 possessions, and all of them easily reach the +30 threshold in that regard.

2010 Profile:  There are only two teams that have the “look” of a national title contender in this year’s bracket: Kansas and Duke.  The Devils and Jayhawks are the only two teams with +35 efficiency differentials by a big margin (next best: Wisconsin and Ohio State at a shade over +29), and they rank #1/#2 in terms of offensive efficiency.  You’d be doing well from a Pomeroy standpoint to pick either of these two to win it all.  

Runners-Up

Looking at the five runner-up teams from 2005-09, we notice right away that these teams’ defensive efficiencies are generally just as good as those of the champions, but where they fall off significantly is on the offensive end.  Great teams can make a handful more scoring plays a game, even against a great defense, and that appears to be where the separation happens. 

2010 Profile:  Whoever you didn’t pick above, you probably would want to pick here as your runner-up.  The separation between those two teams and everyone else is fairly substantial this year. 

Final Four

And now, the real fun begins.  How to distinguish from all of these other teams?  What you’ll notice below is that nearly all of them are north of +30 when it comes to the efficiency differential.  Of the three Cindys, only Mason remains a real shocker with a pedestrian offensive efficiency and good-but-not-great defensive efficiency.  The average Final Four team is not markedly different than the average Runner-Up, but as you’ll see below, nearly every F4 school has a top 25 defense.  In quite a few of the Elite Eight examples, you’ll find a team with a top 10 offense that gets weighed down because their defense simply isn’t up to snuff. 

2010 Profile:  You should focus on teams with a top 25 defense and, in general, a corresponding offense.  The few Cinderellas that make the F4 can all make stops in the clutch, but they don’t have enough offensive firepower to go further.  Among this year’s field, this would mean that semi-popular teams such as Villanova, Maryland, Georgetown, Baylor and Xavier should be off your board.  You may want to give more serious consideration to Wisconsin, BYU and Kansas State than you previously have, just to be safe. 

Elite Eight

This round is where you’ll want to see a team with at least a +20 efficiency differential, but how they’re actually doing it is less important than the mere fact that they are.  We note a lot of teams with really good offenses and really good defenses, but few times where they’re excellent at both facets of the game (UNC in 1997 is an anomaly).  One thing to note with your brackets: every team on this list is at least a top 20 offense or defense — they have to be good at something to make it this far. 

2010 Profile:  Noting that E8 teams tend to be good at offense or defense, but not always both, you should examine your brackets to see if the teams you have slotted there are good at one or the other.  Teams like Texas, Texas A&M, Minnesota, Michigan State and Pittsburgh probably aren’t Elite Eight caliber if you buy into the Pomeroy numbers, but some sleepers like the ones you didn’t choose above could be (Wisconsin, K-State, et al).  You probably also want to avoid teams with huge ranking differentials, as only WVU made the Elite Eight with a ranking differential of over fifty spots — so, for example, Cal, Villanova, Missouri and Temple are probably way too one-dimensional to merit inclusion this deep into your bracket.   

First Three Rounds 

This is where it starts to get too difficult to see much in the way of trends from the eyeball method.  There are too many teams and randomness in the soup.  But if you believe that Pomeroy’s numbers are good at telling the story, hopefully some of the guidelines above at a minimum helped you to decide between a couple of your final teams at each slot.  The first round is great and all, but the last three rounds are where the heavier points are located.  You nail all of those and it probably won’t matter much whether you hit 23 or 25 picks over the first two days. 

Reliant Stadium Hosts the South Regional

Region: South

Favorite: Duke, #1 seed, 29-5. Yeah, I know it isn’t shocking that they are the favorites especially in what many are calling the weakest of the four regions, but the Blue Devils have a solid combination of perimeter talent (albeit limited in numbers) and interior players (quantity more than quality, but still something). With the way Jon Scheyer has been playing this season and the sudden re-emergence of Kyle Singler in the ACC Tournament, Coach K and the Blue Devils should have their sights set on Indianapolis.

Should They Falter: Villanova, #2 seed, 24-7. A Final Four team last year, the Wildcats had the appearance of a Final Four team a month ago (many will still pick them now), but after losing five of their last seven games to close the season some of that luster has worn off. Still we would be remiss not to list them here as all but one of those losses came on the road (neutral site in one case to a #6 seed) against a team that is in the NCAA, another team with a top-3 seed and another to a UConn team back when Jim Calhoun’s players still cared.

Grossly Overseeded: California, #8 seed, 23-10. I know they won the Pac-10 regular season, but as you may have heard the Pac-10 was awful this year. When we asked Mike Montgomery about the possibility that the Bears might miss the NCAA Tournament this year he was perturbed. While he might have made it into the NCAA Tournament it does not erase the fact that they did not beat a single team in the top 50 of the RPI ratings. The Bears might deserve a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but I think most people would agree that they have not earned a seed this high.

Grossly Underseeded: Siena, #13 seed, 27-6. This might be where they deserve to be seeded based on their resume this year, but this is the team with the most “growth potential.” The Saints struggled in their conference final, but they have won first round games as an underdog in each of the past two years. Last year they knocked off Ohio State as a #9 seed and the year before knocked off Vanderbilt as a #13 seed. With an experienced squad they would be a tough out as a #13 seed in any bracket.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): Siena. Like we said they won their first round games each of the past two years and there might not be a team more set-up to be upset in the first round than the Robbie Hummel-less Purdue Boilermakers. If they get past Matt Painter’s crew, they will play the winner of the Texas A&M and Utah State. It won’t be an easy second round game, but since it is in Spokane, Washington, we can’t imagine that either team will have a huge following there (although Utah State could conceivably travel up there).

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): Richmond. Anybody who follows college basketball is aware of the Spiders’ reputation for pulling off shocking first round upsets. That won’t be the case this year as they come in as the #7 seed against the #10 Saint Mary’s Gaels. Still if they can get past Omar Samhan in the first round they could cause all sorts of problems for Villanova with their Princeton Offense.

Carmelo Anthony Award: Scottie Reynolds, Villanova, 18.5 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.7 RPG, and 1.5 SPG. He did it last year. He may well be the most dynamic small players in the nation not named John Wall. If anybody is going to carry their team to the Final Four out of the South Region it will be Reynolds.

Stephen Curry Award: Omar Samhan, Saint Mary’s, 20.9 PPG, 11 RPG, and 3 BPG. Just a year after Patty Mills left the Gaels, they have another potential superstar. Samhan isn’t your typical small-school star who is going to run up and down the court and destroy your team with a barrage of three-point shots. Instead, he is going to go down low and embarrass your big men while emasculating them.

Home Cooking: The South Region might as well be called the Sky Miles Region because nobody is playing close to home in the opening weekend. The only way any of these teams will play close to home is if they advance to the Regional in Houston and in that situation Baylor (probably), Texas A&M (maybe), and Sam Houston State (unlikely) would likely have the home crowd on its side. This could play a major role in determining the outcome of the South Regional.

Can’t Miss First Round Game: Richmond vs. St. Mary’s, Thursday @ 2:50 pm. Normally we hate it when two mid-majors meet like this because it feels like another play-in game, but this game is too good to miss. Richmond has been a borderline top 25 team throughout the year, but after a four-point loss in the Atlantic 10 Finals to Temple they slipped to a #7 seed. As a result they will face a St. Mary’s squad that destroyed Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Finals. Look for an entertaining game with two of the best mid-major teams you will see all year.

Don’t Miss This One Either: Purdue vs. Siena, Friday @ 2:30 pm. This is the “upset du jour” in the first round for the South Region. It almost sounds too straightforward. A big-name school that has had a disappointing finish to the season—first with Hummel’s season-ending knee injury, then with an evisceration at the hands of Minnesota—going up against a small school that has the pedigree and the experience of having knocked off big-name schools in the past (see above). Still with E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, and Chris Kramer, the Boilermakers will not be an easy out.

Lock of the Year: Purdue not “living up” to their seed. Even if they manage to escape their first round match-up against Siena, I can’t see them getting to Houston. And just remember that they were seeded well below where they probably would be if you looked at the ranking. . .

Juiciest Potential Match-Up (Purists): Richmond vs. Villanova in the second round. Sure the media will eat up the giant-killer angle with Richmond (ignoring the fact that Villanova is the most famous giant-killer knocking off Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown Hoyas in the 1985 NCAA title game), but between Richmond’s Princeton offense and Villanova’s bevy of talented guards this game should thrill everyone who loves “old-school” basketball.

Juiciest Potential Match-Up (Media): Duke vs. Louisville in the second round. Almost everyone is circling this as a potential trap game for the Blue Devils, but that only scratches the surface of the media angles here. Rick Pitino and his Karen Sypher saga will come up again [Ed. Note: Nobody was more appreciative of the Tiger Woods fiasco than Pitino.] Then there is the coaching matchup between Pitino and Krzyzewski. We will have replays of the 1992 East Regional Finals. [Ed. Note: If you aren’t watching you will know when it is on from the blood-curdling screams coming from the state of Kentucky. And speaking of Kentucky, Wildcats fans will most likely have an aneurysm. Who do they root against? Afterward are they happy that someone lost or sad that someone won?]

We Got Screwed: Notre Dame, #6 seed, 23-11. The Irish got all they could have asked for in terms of seeding, but they could have had a much better draw. They open with a very good Old Dominion team that nobody wanted to play (ask Digger Phelps). If they win that they will most likely get a Baylor team that is a trendy pick to make it to Indianapolis. So even though nobody in the South Region can complain about their draw too much, the Irish have the biggest beef. Looking at the draws for the other #6s I would definitely rate Marquette’s (East) and Xavier’s (West) as easier with only Tennessee’s (Midwest), most likely having to get through San Diego State and Georgetown, as more difficult.

Strongest Pod: Spokane. Tough call between this and the New Orleans pod, but that pod has a bad team (Sam Houston State) while all four in Spokane (Purdue, Texas A&M, Utah State and Siena) are solid.

Wildcard, Bitches: Chad Ford tweeted during the Bracket Selection Show that there were no lottery picks in Duke’s region. He might have been too kind. Outside of Duke’s team where Mason Plumlee is the #37 prospect and Singler is the #55 prospect on Ford’s NBA Draft rankings, only one other player is in the top 65: Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson at #50.

So-Called Experts: It seems like a somewhat even split between #1 Duke and #2 Villanova among the ESPN crew.  Currently 44% of users in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge game are picking Duke out of this region, with Villanova at 34% and #3 Baylor garnering 11% of the vote.

Vegas Odds to Win Title:

• Duke = 8:1
• Villanova = 20:1
  
• Baylor = 30:1
  
• Purdue = 60:1
  
• Texas A&M = 100:1
• Notre Dame = 100:1
  
• Richmond = 300:1
  
• California = 100:1
  
• Louisville = 100:1
  
• St. Mary’s = 300:1
  
• Old Dominion = 300:1
  
• Utah State = 500:1
• Siena = 300:1
• Field = 50:1