We continue unveiling our team-by-team breakdowns, in roughly the reverse order of where we expect these teams to finish in the conference standings. 

Colorado Buffaloes

Strengths: While Colorado has a lot of strengths, its biggest may be balance. They’ve got a veteran backcourt featuring an all-conference point guard in Spencer Dinwiddie, but they’ve also got a frontcourt with size, athleticism and, perhaps most importantly, upside. Sophomores Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson are regarded as possible breakout players, while redshirt freshman Wesley Gordon is ready to get back into the swing of things after spending last year improving his body and his game. They’ve got guards that score in the paint and from deep and they’ve got frontcourt guys who can not only post up, but can step outside and knock down perimeter jumpers. This team has a lot of options.

Xavier Johnson Will Be Chief Among The Players Called On To Help Replace Andre Roberson’s Production.

Weaknesses: There are a few main concerns for Colorado. First, while Tad Boyle thinks he’s got enough frontcourt bodies to ease the transition away from the Andre Roberson era, there is no one guy who can do all the things that Roberson did. For instance, while Josh Scott was quite effective on the offensive glass last season, he’ll really need to step it up on the defensive end to make up for Roberson. And frankly, there is nobody with the defensive versatility that Roberson had; the Buffs will need to prove that they can defend as well without Roberson’s freak athleticism. Then there remains the concern that Askia Booker still hasn’t seen a shot he didn’t like and is far too inefficient an offensive force (31.2 percent from three and just 39.5 percent from inside the arc) to be monopolizing so many shot attempts (12.7 FGAs per game). With efficient scorers like Dinwiddie, Scott and, to a lesser extent, Johnson around, there are far better options than Booker hunting looks.

Non-Conference Tests: The Buffs open up on Friday with a tough battle against a talented Baylor team in Dallas, and that is just the first of three match-ups against former Big 12 rivals on their excellent non-conference slate; the other two come in December: a visit from Kansas followed by a neutral site game against Oklahoma State in Las Vegas. There are also three Mountain West teams on CU’s schedule: Wyoming, Air Force and Colorado State. None of those teams are world-beaters, but they’ll all help the RPI numbers. Throw in a visit from a very good Harvard team, a visit from an Elon squad that is the favorite in the Southern Conference, and a visit from a middling SEC team in Georgia, and Boyle has put together arguably the best non-conference slate in the Pac-12. Put together a good record before the New Year and the Buffs will be prepped for a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. It was upset weekend in the Pac-12 to start the month of November. What are we talking about, you may be wondering? The world of secret scrimmages, of course. SMU apparently handled Colorado on the road this weekend, with one source even saying that the Mustangs won by at least 20 points. In Tempe, San Francisco got by Arizona State with ease, another surprising result for the conference. Because of the nature of these controlled scrimmages, the results should certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but they are also not good news by any means. Lots of work is still left to be done before the regular season starts this weekend.
2. Colorado forward Chris Jenkins chose to transfer out of the program Monday. He is a redshirt freshman who wasn’t expected to contribute under head coach Tad Boyle for the second straight season. Colorado opens its regular season Friday against Baylor in Houston.
3. Washington has missed the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons, and senior guard C.J. Wilcox wants to finish his career in Seattle with a trip to the Big Dance. Wilcox is a fifth-year senior and will have to carry the Huskies if they are to return there. “This is my team,” says Wilcox. “I have to make sure I get these guys back to the NCAA Tournament and we can try to do some special things.” However, he will not be able to sneak up on anyone this season after averaging 16.8 PPG last year. If Washington is to navigate the tough Pac-12, the Huskies will need strong performances from new starters Nigel Williams-Goss and Andrew Andrews, who will be playing alongside Wilcox in the backcourt when Lorenzo Romar chooses to go small.
4. Most fans around the country like it when a high school senior signs with their favorite team in the spring. They then watch the player get acclimated to the program during his freshman season, play increased minutes his second year, and start as a junior and senior with the team. Oregon fans have come to expect something a little different. Duck fans rarely get a sense of familiarity with their roster as Dana Altman has built his team the last few seasons through one- or two-year transfer players. This year’s team is filled with six transfers, all of which are expected to contribute immediately. Altman’s squad opens its season on Friday at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, against Georgetown.
5. The guys over at California Golden Blogs met in roundtable form on Monday and discussed California‘s 83-61 exhibition win over Humboldt State. The Bears scored the ball with efficiency and showed off their improved depth over last year’s squad. Head coach Mike Montgomery debuted a 10-deep roster without much of a worry as it appears the majority of the newcomers are already ahead of the curve. As evidenced by that, freshman guard Jordan Matthews led Cal with 15 points off the bench. Forward Richard Solomon added nine rebounds to go with his 11 points.

1. When Oregon faces Georgetown on November 8 in Seoul, South Korea, there will be a familiar face on the other side. The NCAA has cleared former UCLA center Josh Smith to start playing immediately for the Hoyas. In addition, Smith now has two years of eligibility remaining after being granted a waiver by the NCAA, since he only played six games last season. Head coach John Thompson made it clear Smith’s old problems in Los Angeles would be a thing of the past, saying he “has to maintain a high level of commitment on and off the court.” The Ducks and Hoyas will meet at 5:00 PM Pacific on that opening Friday in a game televised by ESPN.
2. “We don’t view Arizona as the top, the cream, and everybody is the rest. We view ourselves as the cream and everybody else can fight for the rest of the spots.” Those are the words of junior Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie speaking at last week’s Pac-12 Media Day. Head coach Tad Boyle says he’s preaching for his team to ignore the preseason expectations and to be “humble and hungry”, which is easier said than done after a 20-win season last year and most everyone picking CU to make its third straight NCAA Tournament. The Buffaloes get all the chances they could every want in non-conference play to prove they are legit with a road game at Baylor, home games against Harvard, Kansas, and Georgia, and a meeting with Oklahoma State in Las Vegas.
3. Four-star power forward Michael Humphrey (AZ) has narrowed his impressive list of offers down to two, but the Arizona Daily Star reports that there is no timetable for a decision from the Class of 2014 big man. Humphrey visited Arizona over the weekend, and Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins made an in-home visit with him on Monday. It appears that Notre Dame, UCLA, and Vanderbilt, who had offers on the table, are now out of the running.
4. In the “down the road” department of recruiting, Craig Robinson and Oregon State landed a verbal commitment from Class of 2016 shooting guard JaQuori McLaughlin (WA). Citing his long relationship with the coaching staff at Oregon State and their man-to-man defense, McLaughlin wanted to jump aboard early. He averaged 13 points per game in his freshman season at Peninsula High School, but hopes to raise that average to 25 this year. Whether McLaughlin sticks with his commitment (and whether Robinson is still in Corvallis when McLaughlin finally graduates high school) remains to be seen.
5. We keep it in Corvallis to close things up, as we learned yesterday they would be holding the annual “Nike N7 game” on November 26 against SIU-Edwardsville. This is the game where Oregon State wears the turquoise jerseys to bring attention to the initiative that helps Native communities across the country get access to products that encourage participation in sports. It is nice to see the tradition continue even after Joe Burton, who grew up on the Soboba Reservation in Southern California, graduated after last season.

1. Instead of an exhibition game or two, the USC‘s men’s and women’s teams announced yesterday they’ll be hosting the “Trojan Tipoff” on Sunday morning. The day will open with a FanFest, which includes a meet and greet with Trojan coaches and players, but the highlight will be the intrasquad scrimmages that come later in the day. It will be the first glance at the new-look Trojans, now under the guidance of uber-promoter Andy Enfield. Hopefully SC provides some type of streaming for the event for us out-of-towners interested to see how Dunk City looks on the west coast. The men’s team opens the season November 8 at Utah State, in a game to be televised by CBS Sports Network.
2. Across town, the fallout continues from Enfield’s “If you want to play slow, go to UCLA” comment made last week. First year Bruins head coach Steve Alford issued another denial to the quote on Monday, pointing out that his teams at New Mexico were always first or second in scoring in the Mountain West. He also said that while there are no problems between he and the other new coach in Los Angeles, he understands that there is a rivalry between the schools. Before the session was over, however, Alford couldn’t resist getting a low-key shot in at the Trojans. “You look at history and tradition, UCLA and USC, there is quite a bit of difference there.”
3. Some leftovers from Thursday’s Pac-12 Media Day, as Arizona Desert Swarm sat down with junior guard Nick Johnson recently. Johnson discusses playing in the backcourt with point guard T.J. McConnell, how he handles game-by-game expectations, and the Wildcats’ hidden shooting ability at the three and four spots, among other things. Johnson averaged 11.5 PPG for Arizona last season in over 30 MPG, and if the Wildcats are to live up to the expectations being put upon them in the preseason, he will need to contribute double figures again. Even more important will be his perimeter defense, which gave a huge lift to Arizona at times last season. His pressure and ability to get his team out on breaks energized things whenever the offense struggled. Johnson and the Cats will open regular season play against Cal Poly on November 8.
4. This is the year that Larry Krystowiak will need to show some of the strides Utah has been making, this being his third year at the helm and the Utes’ third in the Pac-12. He thought that the best way to get started on that this offseason was to get in better shape, and the Deseret News reports that his team has more or less accomplished that. Post players Jordan Loveridge, Renan Lenz, and Marko Kovacevic have lost about 20 pounds each as Krystowiak is looking for more active players inside. As far as the guards go, Brandon Taylor and Parker Van Dyke are no longer two of the smallest players in the conference, with each gaining around 15 pounds over the summer. On the court, Krystowiak reports that the Utes are having “spirited and competitive” practices so far this fall. They will have their annual “Night with the Runnin’ Utes” on Wednesday evening of this week.
5. Tad Boyle‘s Colorado team has developed a reputation as one of the best teams in the league at taking charges, and Boyle worries that the Buffaloes will be at a disadvantage this season with the NCAA’s new rules on how to interpret the violation. Bobby Dibler, the Pac-12’s new coordinator of men’s basketball officiating, broke down the guidelines at Media Day last week and said that he expects more blocks to be called this season. The modification states that once an offensive player has started an upward motion with the ball, the defender can not move into that player’s path or it will be a blocking foul. This is a welcome change after many players had became masters of sliding under a player already in mid-air to draw the charge. As probably expected, Boyle is not a big fan: “We’re going to have to adjust, but I don’t like the rule.”

October is here, and that means we are just weeks away from real, live basketball games. In order to prepare you for the first two months of the season, we’re going to break down all 12 non-conference slates over the next couple of weeks. Up next; the schools in the Rockies.

Teams are listed in order of which they will be played. Last season’s RPI in parenthesis. Potential opponents (one round in advance) are italicized. All times listed are Pacific.

Colorado

Cream of the Crop: vs. Baylor (70) in Dallas, vs. Harvard (92), vs. Kansas (5), Oklahoma State (27) in Las Vegas

Tad Boyle And The Buffaloes Will Renew Rivalries With Three Former Big 12 Conference Foes

For a team with high expectations, Tad Boyle has put together a schedule worthy of the attention. They begin with a talented Baylor team on what amounts to the sport’s opening night, but that’s just the first of three quality games against former Big 12 rivals. Their two biggest non-conference games are the other two of those three games, against the two favorites in the Big 12, with Kansas coming to Boulder on December 7, and the Buffaloes meeting Oklahoma State in Las Vegas two weeks later. The good news is that none of those games are true road games, so the Buffs should find a way to win at least one of those three against the Big 12; if they win two, they’re golden. But, just in case everything goes to hell against those Big 12 teams, the Buffs do get a chance to welcome in a Harvard team that has the chance to be a fixture in the Top 25 for much of the year; the bad part is that the Crimson are a team that could give CU all they can handle.

Solid Names: vs. Wyoming (73), @ Air Force (79), @ Colorado State (18), vs. Georgia (140)

Aside from the big names on the schedule, the Buffaloes will also face three Mountain West teams and one SEC team. The bad news there is that none of these teams are expected to be NCAA Tournament contenders this season. Nevertheless, wins over these four teams, especially those two tough in-state roadies, could help bolster the team’s RPI numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Bennet Hayes is an RTC columnist. He can be reached @HoopsTraveler. Periodically throughout the preseason, RTC will take an in-depth look at the schedules of some of the more prominent teams in college basketball.

Sean Miller’s fifth season in Tuscon could easily turn out to be his best. Despite the graduation of key seniors Solomon Hill (a first round pick in the 2013 NBA Draft), Mark Lyons, and Kevin Parrom – in addition to the surprising departure of freshman Grant Jerrett to the professional ranks, Miller has assembled the most talented roster that Arizona has seen in quite some time. A solid Pac-12 conference and challenging non-conference schedule will challenge the Cats’, but a nice blend of returnees and newcomers should give the man at the helm ample leeway to steer this storied program deep into March.

Nick Johnson will be asked to do more — both on and off the court — for this young but talented Wildcat team

• Team Outlook: This will be a new-look Arizona team, as last year’s squad was built around departed seniors Lyons and Hill. Some familiar faces will be back and poised to fill leadership roles this time around, with junior Nick Johnson (11.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 1.9 SPG) most prominent among them. The athletic two-guard shot the ball better from three-point range as a sophomore (39% after 32% as a freshman), and should also serve as the Cats’ best perimeter defender in 2013-14. Sophomores Kaleb Tarczewski (6.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 22.2 MPG) and Brandon Ashley (7.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 20.5 MPG) return to anchor the frontcourt, with each likely seeing a slight minutes increase, despite the arrival of a duo of freshman studs in the same frontcourt. Both Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson were McDonald’s All-Americans last spring, and immense immediate contributions from both freshmen would surprise no one. Gordon especially shapes up as a good candidate for a jump to the NBA after a season of stardom in Tuscon, as he is currently projected as a Top-20 pick in the 2014 draft on NBADraft.net. Gordon’s production will be one of the keys to this Wildcat season, but he may not be Sean Miller’s most important player. Duquesne transfer T.J. McConnell (11.4 PPG, 5.5 APG, 2.8 SPG in 2011-12) will be filling Lyons’ shoes and running the show in Tucson this season. McConnell was an efficient lead guard in the Atlantic-10 and should quickly acclimate to the Pac-12, but the absence of proven ball-handlers elsewhere on the roster means his transition has to be a smooth one for Arizona to be successful. He will be a welcomed change-of-pace for teammates used to the shoot-first Lyons dominating the ball, and his steal % of 4.7 (12^th best in the nation in 2012) is ample indication of a dedication to both ends. The talented youngsters around him will keep expectations low for McConnell individually, but don’t be shocked if he emerges as the leader of this club. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday afternoon, the final missing piece in the Pac-12 early entry decisions came down, as Colorado junior forward Andre Roberson announced his intention to bypass his final year of eligibility and enter the NBA Draft. Roberson led the conference in rebounding the last two years (11.2 RPG in 2012-13, and 11.1 RPG in 2011-12) and was the Defensive Player of the Year, not only for his rebounding but also for his ability to match up with players at several different positions. Roberson had previously called a press conference for Friday to announce his choice, but cancelled that due to some remaining indecision. But now that the verdict is in, it will have a major impact on Roberson’s career going forward as well as the short-term prognosis for the Buffaloes.

The Pac-12’s Leading Rebounder The Last Two Years, Andre Roberson, Will Forego His Final Year Of Eligibility

For Roberson, it wasn’t a slam dunk choice. Yes, he’s an excellent rebounder and defender, but he’s still just a 6’7” small forward with a limited offensive game outside of the paint. As a result, he’s a borderline prospect at best – nobody projects him as a first round pick and there’s a strong possibility he will go undrafted in June. But that doesn’t mean he won’t have a future playing pro basketball. His athleticism and nose for the ball alone will make him a useful piece for somebody somewhere around the globe. But as far as his near-term NBA prospects? Project number one is to do everything possible to improve his inconsistent jumper. In his three seasons at Colorado, he hit a grand total of 50 three-pointers, with his long range average dipping from 38% in his sophomore campaign to 32.8% last season. Throw in an additional three feet in the NBA to earn that extra point and Roberson is clearly not a guy who should be expected to be a prolific NBA shooter in the immediate future. Still, if he can make strides in that area while focusing entirely on basketball over the next few years, he could be an NBA player in due time.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Steve Alford issued a statement yesterday apologizing for the way he handled the Pierre Pierce situation at Iowa. Alford constantly defended Pierce at Iowa after he was accused of sexual assault even after Pierce pled guilty. When Alford took over at UCLA last week, the topic came up once again when Dan Bernstein published a column entitled “Alford already lying at UCLA”. It was the right move for Alford to apologize, but it didn’t make sense that he waited nine years to do so.
2. The Pac-12 has launched an independent review of the officiating that occurred at the Pac-12 Tournament this year. Even with Ed Rush’s resignation, the conference must determine whether the officials were influenced by external factors during the games in Las Vegas. Additionally, the review will focus on how to improve the officiating overall — a recurring hot topic among league fans. This is a step in the right direction for the Pac-12 given the inconsistent and often very poor officiating that occurred this season.
3. Standout freshman Jahii Carson will return for another year at Arizona State. Carson was not going to be a lottery pick in this year’s draft and still needs to improve his jumper and scoring ability against bigger guards. With Carson’s return to Tempe, the pressure now will be put on Herb Sendek to produce results with his team. While Sendek has been in Tempe, he has only made the NCAA Tournament once in seven years, and that simply won’t cut it. The Sun Devils will lose Carrick Felix, but they return Jordan Bachynski and Carson and will need to make a run at the postseason.
4. Tad Boyle said yesterday at his season-ending press conference that Andre Roberson is getting “misinformation” that may be preventing him from deciding on whether he will declare for the NBA Draft. Many projections have Roberson going in the second round and some have him possibly not even getting drafted at all. Boyle noted that this is a very different situation than that of Alec Burks two years ago, where it was almost certain that he would get picked in the lottery. There’s a lot more risk for Roberson as a result. If Roberson does decide to leave school, Colorado will be prepared to move on. The Buffaloes will return four starters, have a deeper bench, and bring in three talented recruits. If Roberson decides to stay, there will be a spot for him in the lineup and the Buffaloes could potentially be a Top 15 team with the 6’7″ forward around for another season.
5. Kevin Parrom’s career at Arizona has officially ended. Parrom tweeted recently that he won’t apply for a waiver request that would grant him a fifth year of eligibility. There was a slim chance of this happening as Arizona was expected to appeal and include the adversity Parrom faced as a main reason for the player to receive another year. Parrom was shot and lost his mother and grandmother as well within a short period of time in 2011. In Parrom’s final season, he averaged 8.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per game — although he is unlikely to make a roster in the NBA, he certainly has the ability to play overseas somewhere.

1. Pac-12 coordinator of officials Ed Rush resigned on Thursday after it was revealed he put a bounty on Arizona head coach Sean Miller during last month’s Pac-12 Tournament. Multiple officials said that Rush offered $5,000 or a trip to Cancun if any official gave a technical to Miller during the tourney. The Wildcat coach ended up receiving his first T of the season in UA’s semifinal against UCLA, a game the Wildcats lost by two points. Conference commissioner Larry Scott announced earlier in the week that Rush’s comments were made “in jest” and that he wouldn’t be fired because of them. But after much national scrutiny and heat, Rush took care of things himself and avoided what would have likely been a mutiny among Pac-12 referees.
2. Although an official announcement will not come until Monday, former Oregon State point guard Gary Payton will be elected into the Basketball Hall of Fame this year. While in Corvallis, Payton was named the Sports Illustrated college basketball player of the year in the 1989-90 season. He also holds the Seattle SuperSonics’ franchise records in points, assists, and steals, and finished his career as a nine-time NBA all-star.
3. Coming as a bit of a surprise yesterday was news coming out of Los Angeles that  UCLA has extended athletic director Dan Guerrero‘s contract through 2019. The extension comes on the heels of Guerrero’s hiring of new basketball coach Steve Alford, who comes from New Mexico fresh off a 29-6 record. He will receive $734,774 in base pay, with a 5% raise each year of the contract. Bonuses tied to academic and athletic achievements will also be available.
4. Speaking of Alford, he’s got until April 29 to pay a $1 million buyout to New Mexico. Alford had just agreed to a new 10-year deal with the Lobos that would have been worth around $2 million a year. Under the new agreement, if Alford took another job prior to April 1, 2015, he or his new employer would owe the school $1 million. As the article states, UCLA officials said that Alford is responsible for the buyout, but that UCLA would help him work out the details.
5. Jeff Goodman and CBS Sports released its initial list of postseason transfers from around the nation yesterday, and four of the 100 who were revealed will be leaving a Pac-12 institution. Junior shooting guard Jeremy Adams will be leaving Tad Boyle and Colorado, while Washington sophomore Martin Bruenig, who would have been in line for an increase in minutes in 2013-14, will also be departing. The other pair of transfers are freshmen; Kaileb Rodriguez of California and Justin Seymour of Utah.

1. Another day another UCLA coaching search update. With Shaka Smart officially out of the picture, talk about Butler’s Brad Stevens is starting to heat up. First, ESPN broke the completely obvious news that he is UCLA’s top target, while also briefly reporting that Stevens and UCLA were in contract negotiations. Later, FoxSports reported that Stevens was actually in Westwood in the middle of negotiations with UCLA. This report has not been confirmed anywhere, though. However, as should be expected of the calm and quiet Stevens, he’s not commenting on the job at all, other than to say he is still the coach at Butler. And all Butler president James Danko can offer is that he hopes his head coach stats. Elsewhere, N.C. State head coach Mark Gottfried tweeted out that he is “committed” to staying in his current job, which really means nothing, as offering that statement does little but make him have to answer some tough questions if he were to wind up taking the UCLA job. Although you can probably read the tea leaves to find that Gottfried hasn’t received a whole lot of encouragement from those in charge of the UCLA search.
2. One other thing on the UCLA coaching search: for some reason, writers tangentially associated with the Colorado program keep trying to float Tad Boyle as a candidate for the Bruin job. And for no apparent reason. Certainly he’s a fine coach and the job he has done taking the Buffaloes to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances (and, let’s face it, it should be three straight – CU got screwed in 2011) while building up a passionate new fanbase is commendable. But the UCLA job search would probably have to go pretty poorly, with name after name passing on the job, before Boyle gets hired. Again, no offense to Boyle who I think the world of as a coach and expect to have a bright future, but at this point, as a “deranged buffalo” points out, he just hasn’t done enough quite yet to merit the attention of athletic directors at the six elite “blueblood” college basketball programs.
3. Oh, and in case you forgot, the USC coaching job is also open, though there is nowhere near the speculation about it as there is across town. With some of the top candidates already out of the picture, names like Tommy Amaker, Tubby Smith, Tim Floyd, Mike Hopkins and, get this, Ben Howland, are at the top of the list.
4. Speaking of coaching searches, Oregon head coach Dana Altman has been a party in a couple entertaining searches. First, there was the extended and wildly optimistic Oregon search that wound up landing Altman, only after like 600 (note: that number is only an estimate) other coaches turned down Nike U. But Pac-12 fans may have forgotten the 2007 debacle where Altman accepted Arkansas’ offer for their head coaching position, only to renege a day later after a change of heart. I only bring this up now because, (1) well, I needed an additional point for my morning five, but also because (2) it goes to show just how drawn out and dramatic these coaching searches can be and (3) it is a testament to how lucky Oregon is to have Altman, one of the best coaches in the nation.
5. And, as we wrap up another week, we also wrap up the career of some great Pac-12 players, as Arizona’s demise in the Sweet 16 last night ends the college careers of Mark Lyons, Kevin Parrom and Solomon Hill. Hill, for one, did not go down without a fight, as Bruce Pascoe writes. He scored nine-straight in the middle of the half to rescue the Wildcats from a rough patch spanning the half and to keep his team within shouting distance of Ohio State. While his career at UA is done, he does go down in the record books, tied with Kyle Fogg for most games played in Wildcat history.