Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.
Another Friday, another edition of the official RTC bubble watch:
New Locks
St. John’s 16-9 (8-5), 16 RPI, 3 SOS– The Johnnies move into lock status following a two-game road winning streak at Big East bubble teams Cincinnati and Marquette. Steve Lavin’s team has collected four wins against the RPI top-11 and welcome Pittsburgh to the Garden on Saturday for another major scalp opportunity. St. John’s seniors will be dancing for the first time in their careers.
Louisville 19-7 (8-5), 25 RPI, 28 SOS– Despite a setback at Cincinnati, the Cardinals effectively clinched a bid with their home win over Syracuse last Saturday to go along with RPI top-25 victories at Connecticut and at home against St. John’s and West Virginia. Any team that notches ten wins in the Big East is safely in the field and Louisville has games against Rutgers and Providence still remaining.
Arizona 22-4 (11-2), 17 RPI, 74 SOS– The Wildcats have only beaten one NCAA Tournament team this season, a home victory over UCLA, but a #17 RPI, 22 overall victories and a likely Pac-10 regular season championship is enough of a pedigree to easily garner a bid. Two of Arizona’s four losses came against the top two teams in the RPI, Kansas and BYU.
Vanderbilt 19-6 (7-4), 14 RPI, 9 SOS– The Commodores solidified a bid last Saturday behind John Jenkins’ heroics in a win over Kentucky and only cemented their NCAA status by coming from behind to win at Georgia on Wednesday. The RPI/SOS is fantastic and Vanderbilt has a clear path to second place in the SEC East. Wins over North Carolina and Saint Mary’s also aid the cause.
Kevin Stallings and Vandy are now NCAA Tournament locks
Atlantic 10
Xavier 19-6 (10-1), 19 RPI, 30 SOS- The Musketeers passed their toughest remaining test at Duquesne last Sunday and now face an easy schedule the rest of the way in the Atlantic 10, so it’s only a matter of time before they move into lock status. Xavier will be favored in their last five contests before the A-10 Tournament where they’ll enter as the top seed. Xavier boast a stellar RPI/SOS, beat Temple and won at Georgia.
Temple 20-5 (10-2), 32 RPI, 113 SOS– Fran Dunphy’s team is currently playing their best basketball of the season and showed it last night by dismantling a Richmond team that badly needed a marquee win. The Owls toppled #5 RPI Georgetown back in December and haven’t suffered a loss against a sub-100 RPI squad. Temple is also inching closer to lock status.
Richmond 20-7 (9-3), 69 RPI, 170 SOS– The Spiders may need to make the NCAA Tournament on the back of a deep Atlantic 10 conference tournament run. Oh, and they should also root for Purdue in the process, as their upset win over the Boilermakers is the main bragging point of a lackluster resume. The RPI is being anchored by a #226 non-conference SOS. Richmond is probably out as of today.
Duquesne 16-7 (9-2), 73 RPI, 133 SOS– The upstart Dukes fell to West Virginia, George Mason and Xavier by single digits and could badly use one of those over in the win column right now. Their only bragging point is a home win over Temple and the RPI/SOS screams NIT. The Dukes have two games remaining they badly need to win — at Dayton and at Richmond – to even garner consideration.
ACC
Locks: Duke, North Carolina.
Boston College 16-9 (6-5), 45 RPI, 18 SOS– The Eagles boast a superior RPI to their ACC bubble counterparts, but have all the makings of a team that’ll be debated vigorously in the selection room on March 13. They’re 1-5 vs. the RPI top-50 with a November win over Texas A&M and three road games at North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Virginia remaining. If the Eagles win in Charlottesville and beat Miami and Wake at home to get to 9-7 in the ACC, it may be hard to keep them out during a soft bubble season.
Florida State 18-7 (8-3), 48 RPI, 88 SOS- Leonard Hamilton needs to make sure his team doesn’t completely go in the tank without Chris Singleton. They appear safely in the field now boosted by that win over Duke, but a complete collapse without their star player would give the committee signals that Florida State should be re-evaluated, especially if it’s uncertain Singleton returns. With Maryland off the radar, FSU only faces one NCAA team, North Carolina at home, the rest of the way.
Virginia Tech 17-7 (7-4), 57 RPI, 111 SOS– Seth Greenberg ran into some bad luck with his scheduling as Kansas State, UNLV, Mississippi State and the ACC as a whole all underachieved this season and his SOS catapulted as a result. Tech’s best wins are home against Florida State and neutral over Oklahoma State, and with a bubblicious RPI, obviously the Hokies have work to do. They’re in as of this moment, but it may come down to the two-game homestand in late February with Duke and BC coming to Blacksburg.
Clemson 17-9 (6-6), 76 RPI, 104 SOS– Clemson has blown two golden opportunities to stay in the bubble fight, losing by two at home to ascending North Carolina then falling to NC State on the road in a game they had to win. Lose at Miami on Sunday and Brad Brownell’s hopes for a surprise bid are officially over with a trip to Duke still on the slate. Clemson’s best win is a blowout of Florida State at home.
Big 12
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