• Although most people have been talking about the growth of international basketball and its impact on the NBA, we never really saw much of an effect on NCAA basketball other than seeing proven college players get passed over by unproven international talents. Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, anybody? No, we are not talking to you David Kahn! Well, now we are finally starting to see some of the effects. Everybody who reads this site is familiar with the work of Enes Kanter who will play for Kentucky next year (pending a final decision by the NCAA), but it does not stop there as this is a growing trend. Last week Seton Hall received a commitment from center Aaron Geramipoor, who hails from England. [Ed. Note: We're really trying hard not to make any Bobby Gonzalez-Harrod's jokes.] Now, Rutgers, Kentucky, and Maryland have expressed interest in 6’6″ wing Daddy Ugbede from Nigeria (cue up the “Who’s your Daddy?” t-shirts and chants in the student section). Ugbede will enroll in a prep school in Washington, DC, but it is clear that college coaches (and high school coaches for that matter) are starting to look more closely at talent from overseas.
• In May, Georgia head coach Mark Fox surprised many fans by landing Marcus Thornton, which was considered a minor coup given the fact that Texas and Georgia Tech were both offering him a scholarship. This weekend, Fox landed the best recruit to come to Athens in many years when he received a verbal commitment from Kentavious Caldwell, a shooting guard who is ranked as one of the top 5 at his position and top 15 players in this year’s senior class overall by every recruiting service.
• Last week, Marshall Plumlee, the #5 center in this year’s rising senior class, committed to attend Duke following in the footsteps on his brothers, Miles and Mason Plumlee, raising the possibility that all three could play together at Duke next year if Mason (a potential lottery pick in the 2011 NBA Draft) decides to return to Durham for his junior season. Not to be outdone by Coach K, Roy Williams has extended a scholarship offer to Plumlee’s AAU teammate Cody Zeller, the younger brother of Tyler. Cody, who is the #4 power forward in this year’s rising senior class, has not committed to a school yet and has a pretty big list of potential schools according to local newspapers, but we have heard that UNC and a pair of in-state schools (Butler and Indiana) are in the lead right now.

• By now many of you have heard of Anthony Davis who is blowing up on the AAU summer circuit this year. We will have a lot more on him tomorrow, but until then you can check out some YouTube highlights of Davis.
• Davis may have taken all the headlines during the Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, but it was Duke-bound consensus top 5 shooting guard/small forward Michael Gbinije (19 points and 5 rebounds) who led his team to victory with undecided point guard James Robinson adding 24 points. Gbinije ended up winning MVP of the tournament thanks to his offensive output and solid defense against Florida-bound Bradley Beal (#2 rated SG in the class) and undecided Ben McLemore (a top 10 SF/SG) in the finals.

Happy Fiscal New Year, everyone.  We hope that your 2010-11 is filled with great financial security and hoops hysteria.

1. Here’s some somewhat dated news, but it didn’t seem to get much attention until this week, which is that Mississippi State’s Renardo Sidney evidently sees himself as a 1-and-doner when he finally gets to play this coming season.  Sidney tweeted during last week’s draft the following: “NYC #2011  Believe dat.”  The big man who sat out the entire 2009-10 season over concerns with his eligibility certainly has the ability to become a top prospect, but he may want to check next year’s draft location before he makes his reservations.
2. It was an odd summer day for comings and goings yesterday, but Michigan dismissed junior guard Laval Lucas-Perry from its team for an undisclosed violation of team rules, while Oregon forward Jamil Wilson is transferring back east to Marquette for his final three years of eligibility.  Lucas-Perry was a sometime starter for John Beilein’s team, now facing a huge rebuild after losing his two stars and another key contributor in LLP.  Wilson was a starter at Oregon, averaging 5/3 in just under 17 minutes per game — nice coup for Buzz Williams to grab the talented forward from nearby Racine.
3. Insert New Jersey chemical plant joke here…  Rutgers will offer naming rights to its football and basketball stadiums (“the RAC”) as a way to offset some of the expense of a recent renovations.  Some RTC ideas: The Honeywell Hive?  The Prudential RAC?  Toys R Us Arena?  Campbell Soup Bowl?  We could go on…
4. An interesting discussion over at Fanhouse as to whether, with John Wooden’s passing, if Coach K is the best coach alive.  He’s certainly on the short list, but it’s hard to believe that he’s above Phil Jackson or Scotty Bowman, much less Pat Summit or Geno Auriemma in his own sport.
5. At the Under-19 World Championships, Team USA led by Duke’s Kyrie Irving (21 pts) and rising prep senior Austin Rivers (19 pts) won the gold medal when Quincy Miller (another rising senior) hit a three with 25 seconds remaining to give the Americans a three-point lead that stuck.  Good job, fellas.

That sound you just heard may have been the proverbial first domino creaking a little. Today, Orangebloods.com columnist Chip Brown reported that, in advance of the Pac-10 meetings which begin this weekend in San Francisco, the Pac-10 is set to invite six Big 12 schools to join in the creation of the first superconference of the new era of college sports. Brown reports that Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech will be the schools invited, leaving Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska behind. All this comes on the heels of the Big 12 meetings, wrapping up on Friday, which opened with a plea by commissioner Dan Beebe for a united front among member institutions and a commitment to the conference. Obviously, this rumor has huge ramifications for the Big 12 and the Pac-10, but the ripple effect of such a move would be felt across the college sports landscape. We’ll take a look here at the specifics of this rumor and how this rumor could affect other conferences around the country.

Why is this man smiling? Beebe has his work cut out for him. (AP/Mike Fuentes)

The Pac-16. Or Big 16. Or the Great New Superconference

According to the Brown article, which cites multiple unnamed sources, the new conference would be divided into two eight-team divisions with the six Big 12 schools joining Arizona and Arizona State in an Eastern or Inland Division and Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington and Washington State forming the Western or Coastal Division. Then, with the aid of Fox Sports Net, already an operating partner with the Big Ten Network and television partner with both the Pac-10 and Big 12 conferences, the league would create its own cable network akin to the BTN. Perhaps coupled with new television contracts with ABC/ESPN, Fox, CBS, Turner or any other bidders, the projected revenues of the new conference (which would encompass seven of the top 20 television markets in the country) could rival those of the SEC or even the Big Ten.

But this is far from a done deal for a lot of reasons. One big rumor recently has been Texas’ interest in creating its own television network, a move that would allow Texas to keep all of the revenues to itself. And considering Texas’ long-standing disinclination towards sharing profits with other lesser draws (one of the main reasons there has been some Big 12 familial disquiet in the past), they would likely prefer to keep the Big 12 together as-is and move forward with their own plans. However, most people around the conference already see Missouri as good as gone, and Nebraska is at least still in the Big Ten’s sights, so the hopes of keeping the conference whole may be rapidly disappearing.

Texas A&M is also reportedly not entirely on board with the move west. A&M athletic director Bill Byrne was quoted in the Houston Chronicle on Thursday as saying that the SEC could be an option for the Aggies and Oklahoma could also be more inclined to head that way rather than west, both turns of events that could cause the new league to be either scaled down or reconfigured.  It still remains to be seen, however, if the SEC is really interested in taking on more members. With member institutions already raking in about $17 million a year from their new deal with ESPN, that pie would either have to be divided into more and smaller pieces, or renegotiated upon the acceptance of new members. As much as A&M and OU may rather head east, they may not necessarily be invited. And then, there is also the question of how attractive the Oklahoma athletic department is at this point, given their current ongoing NCAA investigation into alleged payment to players, a very serious infraction for a school that was already on probation.

Anyone feel like joining the Pac-10?

As we discussed in our original piece on conference realignment, the worst case scenario for the Big 12 is that it doesn’t exist anymore, and this news today goes a long way towards making that more of a reality. Why is the Big 12 the target for cherry-picking from all sides — the Pac-10 to the west, the Big Ten to the north and the SEC to the east? Well, certainly geography is part of it, and with the Big 12 being smack in the middle of the country and other conferences wishing to expand into relatively nearby geographical areas, member institutions throughout the Big 12 are just primed to be picked at by conferences on the edges. But, beyond that angle, there is the fact that television revenues in the Big 12 are not paid out evenly, with Texas earning over $3 million more per year than Baylor and Iowa State, and even $2 million more than schools like Missouri, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Colorado. Ostensibly, the new superconference would provide a much more equitable distribution of wealth. Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott said recently that a new conference network would need to be an “all-rights-in situation,” again per Orangebloods.com. Revenue sharing in the Big 12 has long been an issue (prompting a hilariously self-unaware quote by Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins: “Revenue sharing is an issue, but if you do some other things there are ways to offset that”), but again at this week’s conference meetings, the issue was not up for discussion. With Missouri in particular displeased with the unequal distribution of wealth, that could be just one more nudge toward the Big Ten door for that school.

Big 12 Leftovers

While there are big questions for both the Pac-10 schools and the Big 12 schools rumored to be invited, all of that pales in comparison to the questions left for those Big 12 schools rumored to be on the outside looking in. What happens to Kansas, one of the nation’s preeminent basketball schools? How about up-and-coming programs Kansas State and Baylor, the Big 12’s Elite Eight representatives last year? If Oklahoma or Texas A&M wind up getting invited to the SEC instead, perhaps Kansas and Kansas State could take their spots in the new Pac-16. Or, if the original 16 in the rumor wind up together, maybe KU and KSU get a lifeline from the SEC, although neither really fits in geographically or aesthetically with the SEC schools. Baylor would be a logical partner in the MWC with fellow former-SWC member TCU, but does Kansas make any sense in the MWC?

So what about the remaining five Big 12 teams banding together to pick off some conglomeration of MWC and Conference USA teams, resulting in a new Big 12 that looks something like: Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, New Mexico, Rice, TCU, Tulsa and Utah? It makes some sense, but at this point it is likely that the MWC teams would have more clout than the remaining Big 12 teams. Certainly, with the MWC perhaps on the verge of adding Boise State, a quartet of Boise State, BYU, TCU and Utah is far more appealing than the remaining Big 12 schools football-wise, and while Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor would significantly upgrade the already strong MWC basketball slate, does Iowa State get left out in the cold? Does Nebraska get left out if the Big Ten decides to go to the bigger media markets to the East?

Another scenario, which would require several other things to transpire in front of it, is the Big 12 leftovers joining forces with the Big East football leftovers (assuming the Big Ten raids the Big East for some combination of Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse), for a mish-mashed geographic league: say Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Nebraska, South Florida and West Virginia. Yuck.

The reality is, if the rumored six head off to the Pac-16, the remaining Big 12 schools will be in for some major league scrambling.

Effect on Big Ten Expansion

If this comes to fruition, what kind of effect does this have on Big Ten expansion? With many people already considering Missouri a done deal, it puts a lot of pressure on Nebraska to find a way to get invited for Big Ten membership, lest they, their legions of fans, and their historic football program be left scrambling for invitation somewhere else, whether that be the SEC (poor geographic match, although the heft of the Husker football program would fit in well with the SEC schools), MWC (better, but still not great geographically, and a significant step down for the football program), or some other new conglomeration of schools left out in other realignments. It is possible that the disintegration of the Big 12 may actually give the Big Ten more of a reason to go out and get Nebraska, perhaps even prompting them to go beyond 16, because Nebraska and their football program will wind up somewhere at some point and they are an attractive well-supported option. There is also the idea that the Pac-10 jumping to 16 may cement the notion that the Big Ten will at least go to 16, if for no other reason than to keep up with the Joneses.

Will Slive and the SEC go searching for new blood?

Effect on SEC Expansion

More interesting may be the number of different scenarios that get tossed towards the SEC if the ball gets seriously rolling on the Pac-16. If Texas A&M and Oklahoma are seriously not interested in Pac-10 membership, the SEC may be able to snap them up and expand their reach further west, maybe even grabbing Nebraska along the way, making an already strong football conference even stronger, although perhaps further diluting their basketball strength. While this could happen if the Big 12 gets dissolved and suddenly these programs are out there for the taking, the key hurdle for any SEC expansion would be to figure out exactly what happens with their historic television contract with ESPN. It is unlikely that ESPN is just going to pony up another $17 million a year for each new member, so do the member schools all agree to just take a smaller piece of the pie? Quite unlikely, although maybe if Texas is part of the package, ESPN would be more apt to sweeten the pot. But Texas seems particularly unwilling to join the SEC due to their desire to maintain some pretense towards remaining in rarefied academic company. In the end, this really doesn’t change the first major decision that SEC commissioner Mike Slive and the presidents and athletic directors of the member institutions need to make: is expansion even realistic financially for the conference at this point? And if the answer there is yes, then the SEC can start comparing their numerous options from both the Big 12 (Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M), ACC (Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami) and even the Big East (Louisville, West Virginia).

Effect on Big East Expansion

The only major effect a Pac-16 would have on the Big East is if it provided further incentive for the Big Ten to raid a significant number of Big East football schools, a prospect that is perhaps already in the works. There is a scenario where this could be a good thing for the Big East, however. Say the Pac-16 happens, and the Big Ten decides to snatch up free agent Nebraska in addition to Missouri. If the Big Ten is really not interested in going any further than 16 teams, perhaps they can convince Notre Dame to come on board and grab just two of the remaining Big East teams. In that scenario, the Big East only has to find two football replacements to get back to the eight teams necessary to retain the possibility of automatic BCS qualifying status, maybe snatching up teams like Central Florida and Memphis to get back to eight while providing geographic partners for schools like South Florida and Louisville. In the end, the Big East is still in a precarious position, but there may be a little glimmer of hope in this news for them.

Big 12 Meetings Wrap-up

While there is still plenty going on behind the scenes that needs to get sorted out before we have any definitive answers, this newest rumor is a bombshell, to say the least. However, Beebe got it just exactly perfect on Tuesday at the start of the Big 12 meetings when he said: “I think it’s very serious. And I think it’s something that we better be very careful about. If we come to a day where there are four 16-member conferences, then it’s going to be a sad day, and it’s going to be very difficult to not have more legal issues and interventions. The pressures will be immense for certain programs to be successful, (and) there will be less chances to win conference championships and national championships.” He’s right about that, and yet just three days later, we may be on the verge of taking that next step towards that very scenario.

]]> http://rushthecourt.net/2010/06/03/realignment-rumors-on-todays-pac-10big-12-rumblings/feed/ 4 http://rushthecourt.net/2010/05/12/the-big-12-and-pac-10-an-alliance/ http://rushthecourt.net/2010/05/12/the-big-12-and-pac-10-an-alliance/#comments Wed, 12 May 2010 10:25:05 +0000 jstevrtc http://rushthecourt.net/?p=21648 Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-10 and Mountain West Conferences and an occasional contributor.

Much has been made of the Big Ten’s interest in expanding beyond their current 11 teams and all the consequences that such expansion could have on other conferences throughout the country. But, given that the other BCS conferences are multi-million dollar organizations and that the continued competitiveness and even existence of these organizations may depend on their actions both before and after the Big Ten comes to its decision, it should come as no surprise that conference commissioners and athletic directors of their respective member institutions are considering their options in a game of moves and countermoves. It is probably no coincidence that the first speculative report to surface indicating that the Big Ten has made its choices and offered up its first invitations came on the heels of reports at the end of last week that the Big 12 and Pac-10 had met to discuss a possible alliance, a big innovation that makes a lot of sense for both conferences.

Big 12/Pac-10

Representatives from the two conferences met in Phoenix last Wednesday in what Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe described as “an informal meeting” to discuss a possible alliance. The two main planks of this possible alliance are rumored to be scheduling preferences in the future and, most importantly, joint television negotiations and ventures. As rumors have swirled of the Big Ten and possibly SEC poaching some Big 12 teams, and with the Pac-10 exploring its own expansion options, a “strategic alliance,” between the two conferences, as Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott put it, could be a boon to both.

The conference generals will do what they have to do in the spirit of self-preservation.

Aside from the potential benefits that an alliance between the conferences could bring, there is a lot of common ground between the two, as they are the only two BCS conferences made up entirely of member schools located west of the Mississippi and Pac-10 deputy commissioner Kevin Weiberg was Beebe’s predecessor at the Big 12. Weiberg was also instrumental in helping launch the Big Ten Network, a bit of experience that may come in handy as these two conferences discuss possibly launching a network of their own, a joint venture between the two that would allow them to show more (or potentially all) of their football and basketball games that don’t get picked up by national or regional networks.

With both conferences facing expiring television contracts at the end of 2012, each conference is looking to find its way into new television contracts with revenues that are competitive with what the Big Ten and SEC have going for them. Current Big Ten member schools receive around $20 million in television revenue each year, with the SEC having just signed a contract with ESPN that would pay member schools approximately $17 million a year. The expiring Big 12 and Pac-10 contracts pay member schools between $7 million and $12 million each. An alliance between the two conferences, however, would offer potential bidders roughly one-third of the nation’s TV market and six of the nation’s top 14 media markets (Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, Houston, Seattle-Tacoma and Phoenix). That would certainly be an attractive option for ESPN/ABC, Fox, or other networks. Likewise, a Big 12/Pac-10 television network would be an intriguing addition to cable and satellite television providers, showcasing not only the highly competitive football and basketball played in each conference, but also baseball and other non-revenue/Olympic sports in which the conferences excel.

We wonder who else may end up getting friendly as a result of all this expansion talk.

In addition to the benefits involving TV negotiations, there is the possibility of preferred scheduling between the two conferences. While the two conferences already have the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series which creates non-conference basketball matchups between the schools in each conference, additional scheduling preferences in football would be a huge incentive for bidders. Potential early-season football matchups like Texas/USC or California/Oklahoma would be very interesting to not only fans, but advertisers as well. There is even the potential for rotating home-and-home football games between all member institutions of the two conferences. Picture USC playing home and away against Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Nebraska and Missouri over the course of a decade. Additional basketball games between the two conferences could also be in the works.

For the time being, an alliance is as far as anyone is willing to go; there will not be a merger of the two conferences at this stage, although events outside of these two conferences could cause that possibility to be considered in the future. However, for now, as Beebe put it, “We feel like 12 is the maximum number that operates well in football,” a line that can be seen either as a pointed dig at the Big Ten or evidence of Beebe’s state of denial about the Big Ten’s plans. Beebe is not the only figure in the Big 12 who appears to be in denial, as Baylor athletic director Ian McCaw has said “I’ll be surprised if the Big Ten expands beyond 12 schools. There are a lot of reasons they won’t go past 12.” That type of underestimating of the Big Ten’s intentions and the possible fallout afterwards is something that could get the Big 12 relegated to history books, but an alliance with the Pac-10 could give the Big 12 a lifeline and make the conference a better option for schools like Nebraska and Missouri.

Elsewhere in expansion/conference realignment news:

Big Ten

As mentioned above, Sports Radio WHB 810 AM in Kansas City reported on Monday that the Big Ten has issued invitations to Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska and Rutgers, with the idea being that if all four decide to join, they will invite a fifth team to fill out a full 16 slots, but that if just three of the four join, 14 will suffice. Never mind that the Big Ten likely would never have issued the invitations if they didn’t already know the answers, and the fact that no one else is reporting it as true; the story has received a lot of attention, if only for the numerous denials the story triggered. If this story is even remotely true, we’ll know quite a bit more about it soon, as the Big Ten coaches and athletic directors will meet May 17-19, and presidents and chancellors will meet the first week in June, both in Chicago.

ACC

ACC commissioner John Swofford said that the ACC will not be proactive in expansion, but will be ready to respond to any situations that may arise.

SEC

Former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer acknowledges that the extent of Big Ten expansion could cause the SEC to initiate expansion of their own. Moreover, current SEC commissioner Mike Slive said that while he is very comfortable with where the SEC is at right now, if there’s going to be a significant shift in the conference paradigm, the SEC will be strategic and thoughtful in order to maintain its position as one of the nation’s premier conferences.”

1. According to Jeff Goodman, Mike Rice is the guy at Rutgers.  The Robert Morris coach who led his team to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances and very nearly took down #2 seed Villanova in this year’s first round, will take over in north Jersey.  He has his work cut out for him, as  Rutgers has already lost its two best players Mike Rosario (transfer to Florida) and Hamady Ndiaye (graduation) in the offseason.
2. Staying in the greater New York area, new Hofstra coach Tim Welsh has resigned in the wake of his DWI over the weekend.  You really hate to see what should have been a good situation for the former Providence coach turn into a negative one, but it’s probably in the best interests of all parties if he simply moves on and gets his life back in order before trying to coach again.
3. This decision by the US Supreme Court today ensures that the only place you can legally wager on college basketball in the United States will remain in Nevada unless a federal law banning such gaming is someday repealed.
4. Rematch of the title game.  Duke and Butler have scheduled a repeat performance of their classic title tilt on Dec. 4 in East Rutherford, NJ.  We know Final Four MOP will be back for the Devils, but will Gordon Hayward be facing him on the other side?  Should be a good one regardless.  Speaking of Duke, Luke Winn has already broken down their repeat title chances in his typically informative way.
5. How’s this for a strange early entry candidate?  John Sloan, a 5’11 backup for D3 Huntingdon College (Alabama) who averaged two points per game last season has entered his name into the draft.  And yes, he was joking.

1. There have been several more comings and goings in the coaching ranks over the last few days.  Two Ivy League schools filled head coaching positions, with Cornell replacing Steve Donahue with Virginia Tech assistant Bill Courtney, and Columbia replacing Joe Jones with St. Mary’s assistant Kyle Smith.  In other vacant head coaching positions, Rutgers is expected to name a coach to replace the embattled Fred Hill sometime this week, and ESPN commentator Fran Fraschilla and Robert Morris’ Mike Rice are alleged to be the co-leaders.  In contract extension news, Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is now signed through 2015 in Madison and the long-awaited extension for UConn’s Jim Calhoun is supposedly near-completion despite rampant rumors of NCAA violations on the horizon.
2. New Hofstra head coach Tim Welsh is off to a troubling start in his new job when he was found sleeping at the wheel of his Lexus early Friday morning with a blood alcohol level of 0.18.  He pleaded not guilty to the charge of DWI and expressed deep regrets for his transgression but the school has suspended him indefinitely without pay while things get sorted out.
3. Some key player news: Ole Miss starting forward Murphy Holloway, a sophomore who averaged 10/7 last year for the Rebs, is leaving Oxford for somewhere closer to his six-month old daughter in his hometown of Columbia, SC.  Ole Miss is unlikely to allow him to transfer immediately to South Carolina, so Clemson appears to be the best bet for his future services.  Cal starting forward Omondi Amoke was dismissed from the team for an undisclosed rule violation.  He had been previously suspended for the Bears’ NCAA Tournament games against Louisville and Duke, and his departure means that Mike Montgomery will have to replace his entire starting lineup next season.  At BYU, up-and-coming guard Michael Loyd, Jr., is also leaving, and it appears that his flamboyant style (he has sported a mohawk and a tongue piercing) may have had something do to with it.  Assuming superstar Jimmer Fredette returns, BYU should still be fine in the backcourt with several returnees.
4. The 2010 Jimmy V Classic has been announced with a solid doubleheader of games on tap: Memphis vs. Kansas followed by Michigan State vs. Syracuse.  This event could involve three of the top ten teams in America.
5. The matchups for the Pac-10/Big 12 Hardwood Classic were announced late last week, and many of the games are simply return games from last year’s event.   We really don’t understand why these two leagues can’t get their act together on this thing.  Here are a couple of suggestions.  #1) make it a real event that covers two or three consecutive nights the way the ACC/Big 10 Challenge works.  #2) put all of the games on television, preferably on the same network (FSN?). #3) get some better matchups.  Sheesh.  For your perusal:

Saturday, November 27
USC at Nebraska

Thursday, December 2
Missouri at Oregon
UCLA at Kansas
Arizona State at Baylor

Friday, December 3
Kansas State at Washington State

Saturday, December 4
Oregon State at Colorado
California at Iowa State

Sunday, December 5
Texas at USC
Oklahoma at Arizona

Tuesday, December 21
Stanford at Oklahoma State

Overview

College sports fans dodged a major bullet last week when the NCAA announced that the men’s basketball tournament would only be expanding to 68 entrants, rather than the 96-team field that had been widely rumored. However, the face of college sports as we know it is still in jeopardy, as the specter of widespread conference realignment still looms, with the much-speculated-upon expansion of the Big Ten as the key domino that could start a wave of changes leaving the college sports landscape drastically altered.

The elephant in the room issue is the consolidation of power away from the existing six BCS conferences and into a smaller number of “superconferences” with the possibility looming that once any realignment sorts itself out and we’ve got four 16-team conferences, those conferences break away from the NCAA and form their own structure. As Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins puts it: “At some time, the major conferences are going to have their own quasi-NCAA. They’re going to do their own thing.” Former Syracuse AD Jake Crouthamel was even more specific, saying that eventually the Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Pac-10 would expand and ultimately leave the NCAA, even to the point of forming their own competing basketball tournament: “If you look at the history of what’s been going on for the last decade, I think it’s leading in that direction.”

We Promise It Won't Get This Complicated

The potential expansion of conferences detailed below is not the first shot fired in the consolidation of power, but the next step in an already-existing series of moves that has widened the financial gap between the biggest athletic departments and the rest of the supporting cast. And, as those at the top get bigger and bigger, the underdogs not only fall behind in terms of funding, but they may ultimately be left completely behind: no more Boise State and Utah to steal BCS bowl spots from big-money institutions during the winter, and no more Butler and George Mason sneaking into the Final Four in the spring. While that type of doomsday scenario is still several decision points down the line, what happens in the Big Ten over the next twelve months or so could be the monumental tipping point to drastically move things in that direction.

At present, the most widely rumored targets for Big Ten expansion are Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse from the Big East and Nebraska and Missouri from the Big 12, although as always occurs when the Big Ten thinks about expansion, Notre Dame is in the mix and likely their number one choice. With the Pac-10 also in the midst of contemplating expansion within the next year, these moves could send a ripple effect throughout all of the Division I conferences causing some conferences to get bigger, others to contract, and even some to disappear.  While the specifics remain conjecture and speculation at this point, there are enough common-sense scenarios out there to fuel theories to create one of the most helter-skelter flowcharts ever seen. We’ll take a look conference-by-conference at what could happen, and what kind of fallout might be created by each move, starting with our eleven midwestern friends.

Big Ten

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany confirmed last Wednesday that his conference is considering not only expanding to 12, but also perhaps even 14 or 16 teams. While some of the rationale for the expansion would be the addition of a football championship game for more revenue, the accumulation of more content and more markets for the Big Ten Network is probably more important to their plans. Delany noted that while discussions for this expansion are ongoing, the 12-18 month timetable that was originally announced in December is still the current framework.

Starting with the first domino, there is little doubt that the Fighting Irish would be the Big Ten’s first choice and the most logical fit for the conference, in terms of geography, academics and, frankly, football. Notre Dame and the Big Ten have flirted with each other many times in the past, but there is likely a greater chance that they will consummate their relationship this time around than any time before. For the Big Ten, the attraction is obvious: a huge fan base in historic “Big Ten country,” a ton of athletic history, and excellent academics. For Notre Dame, however, the question is a lot tougher. The Irish have been a football independent throughout their history and current athletic director Jack Swarbrick recently said that their “highest priority is maintaining football independence.” Notre Dame is currently in the middle of a television contract with NBC for the rights to broadcast home football games, a contract that runs through 2015 and an issue that will need to be confronted somehow if the Irish are eventually invited and accept Big Ten membership. The amount of the NBC deal (about $15 million annually) is not prohibitive enough to prevent them from considering membership in the Big Ten, whose member schools currently receive about $20 million annually from their television contracts. It is even possible that if the Big Ten and Notre Dame can come to an agreement, all this expansion talk will end right there: Notre Dame joins up, the Big Ten stops at 12 teams, the Big East poaches a team from CUSA like Central Florida as an additional football school and geographic partner to South Florida or a basketball-only school from the A-10 like Rhode Island or Massachusetts and the end-of-the-world scenario is averted. At present, however, it is being reported that Notre Dame is not being considered in the Big Ten’s expansion plans (a report that nobody in their right mind believes), but if Notre Dame is interested, the Big Ten will certainly be interested as well.

Figure 1: Big Ten Best Case Scenario

However, it is also realistic that with or without Notre Dame, the Big Ten is aiming for 14 or 16 teams to become the first superconference. While the addition of teams such as Missouri and Nebraska makes the most geographic sense, this expansion thing is not really about logic but about dollars, and Delany seems most interested in all the potential viewers that the bigger east coast markets present — notably Rutgers and Syracuse, but also Pittsburgh and potentially Connecticut. Adding three or even all four of those schools would effectively kill Big East football as we know it and potentially damage the Big East basketball enough to persuade a fence-sitting Notre Dame to leap off onto the Big Ten side as well. Swarbick himself admitted in March that “there are things that are large enough to challenge our ability to remain independent and remain in the Big East.” All four (or even three) of those flagship Big East programs bolting for the Big Ten could be one of those “large enough” things.

There have also been rumors about the Big Ten talking to Texas, one of the wackier possibilities and a move that would go a long way toward shattering the Big 12, especially in combination with Nebraska bolting as well and other conferences cannibalizing the remaining Big 12 membership. Why would Texas want to leave their traditional rivals (notably, Oklahoma and Texas A&M) in the Big 12? Big old reason number one: money – the conference’s television contract pales in comparison to the Big Ten’s (or even the SEC’s, another interloper interested in stealing Texas away). While Texas joining the Big Ten is a longshot, it is still a possibility if the Big 12’s member institutions start to get spooked and scatter, something that might happen if Missouri and Nebraska commit early.

Big East

If the Big Ten and Notre Dame finally get hitched and everybody else is happy enough with that arrangement to stay put, the Big East could find one basketball-only replacement pretty easily without starting a resulting avalanche. They could even find an all-sports participant (UCF as mentioned above, or perhaps some other CUSA school) without afflicting too much damage.  Although if they were to snap up Memphis, CUSA’s basketball legitimacy would fall off in a big way.

The doomsday scenario for the Big East occurs, however, if some combination of Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers and Connecticut leave, swiftly eviscerating the conference’s football core and leaving Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia and South Florida looking for a home. Possible scenarios there include the Big East raiding Conference USA for teams like Memphis, UCF and/or Marshall, picking up some of the MAC outliers (Temple, Buffalo) or the whole pack leaving together to form a new conference, leaving basketball-only schools DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Villanova to form a Catholic hoops league or possibly looking to the Atlantic 10 for reinforcements (Temple again, Rhode Island, UMass, Xavier, Richmond, Charlotte, Dayton, St. Joe’s).

Figure 2: Big Ten Goes to 14

The possibilities here are endless, but without a doubt rookie commissioner John Marinatto has his work cut out for him. He has already hired former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue as a consultant, and it is possible that the Big East, already at sixteen basketball schools, could look to expand proactively. There is early talk about trying to get Boston College back from the ACC and possibly swiping Maryland as well. Marinatto has begun talk about a Big East Network, and there are even a couple of ideas to handle the Notre Dame problem: for example, getting the Irish to agree to a deal where they are not a full football member but still schedule a certain number of Big East schools in exchange for their continued membership in the conference in basketball and the non-revenue sports.

From a basketball perspective, imagining a landscape where Georgetown and Syracuse (just to pick one historic rivalry) are not both members of the Big East is a bit scary. But if the nuclear option goes down and the Big East loses three schools to the Big Ten, they could still form a pretty impressive basketball-only conference by raiding the Atlantic 10. DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Villanova plus Xavier, Temple, Rhode Island, Dayton and St. Joseph’s for a 12-team league? Yes, that could work, although it would leave the Atlantic 10 either dead or looking to poach teams from further on down the ladder.

Pac-10

Before we jump to some other conferences that would be impacted by the Big Ten expansion, let’s go west for a bit to another conference actively exploring expansion. Where the Big Ten is looking at options beyond merely a 12-team league, it is thought that 12 is the upper end of the spectrum for the Pac-10 for now. Twelve teams would give the conference the chance to hold a football championship game, but another scenario new Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott is exploring is legislation that would allow a conference to hold a football championship game with only ten members. Throw into the mix the fact that the conference is looking for a new TV deal to replace their current one that expires at the end of 2012 and change is also afoot out west. One major hurdle for the conference to clear in order to be able to expand: expansion requires unanimous approval of the member institutions and there are rumors that Stanford president John Hennessy is against any expansion plans whatsoever.

If the Pac-10 does expand, they’ll be looking for a couple of teams in the same region to match their current ‘traveling partner’ setup. Colorado and Utah are probably the schools that the Pac-10 is most interested in. Both are large research institutions in sizable media markets and close enough together to be traveling partners. BYU and Missouri are far longer shots, with several other west coast athletic powerhouses (UNLV, San Diego State, Boise State, etc) likely having very little chance of being invited to join due to their lack of academic cohesion with the rest of the conference. The problem, however, is that while Utah would probably jump at the chance to bump up to the Pac-10, Colorado presently doesn’t have any reason to want to leave the Big 12. But, if CU administrators see storm clouds on the horizon for the Big 12, they may jump ship ahead of the sturm and drang. And, if Colorado goes west, along with Nebraska and Missouri heading to the Big Ten, maybe Kansas is suddenly also interested in Pac-10 membership. As the Big 12 then crumbles around it, Texas and Oklahoma will need a home, and what about the rest of the conference: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas A&M, Iowa State. If the Big Ten goes to 16 teams and one other conference follows, a third of the BCS conferences is going to have to get swallowed up entirely, and with the Big 12 geographically in the middle of all the others, it is easy to see a scenario where it gets partitioned off bit by bit.

Pac-10 expansion is not a given, considering the conference’s stringent criteria for member institutions and the limited possibilities that fit those specs, and many in the conference want to maintain the conference’s ability to schedule a full round-robin in football and a full home-and-home round-robin in basketball. However, if a couple dominoes fall the right way at the front of the stack, the Pac-10 may have little other choice. A decision on Pac-10 expansion is expected by the end of 2010, with their television contract negotiations likely playing a major role in their eventual decision.

Big 12

While the Big East has the most to lose due to expansion, the Big 12 is not far behind their eastern brethren. If Nebraska and Missouri are invited to join the Big Ten, they would probably jump at the opportunity given the financial implications. Those decisions could prompt a feeding frenzy that would leave the Big 12 every bit the memory that its progenitor, the Southwest Conference, currently is.  Furthermore, if the Big Ten expands to 16 teams, it could prompt the SEC to look into its own expansion possibilities, with teams like Texas and Oklahoma being among the many potential candidates. With the sharks circling to the north, south and east, perhaps Colorado and even Kansas then head to the Pac-10, leaving the remaining conference teams all fighting for a few lifeboats. Some of the less powerful schools could wind up heading to a greatly-expanded Pac-10, the SEC or even the Mountain West.  If all goes wrong for the Big East, they’ll at least still be able to fall back into a pretty strong basketball-only conference. If it all goes wrong for the Big 12, there is no more Big 12, a crazy but realistic thought given the circumstances.

Figure 4: Big Ten to 16 and Effect on Big 12

SEC

The Big Ten is the number one conference in terms of revenue produced. The SEC is a strong second. If the Big Ten expands to just 12 teams, that probably provides no impetus for the SEC to respond. But if the doomsday scenario occurs and the Big Ten moves to 16, the SEC might want to respond, and they’ll likely have no problem doing so.

The first question to ask is why would the SEC expand? They don’t have to expand by four teams to 16 just because the Big Ten does. Right now, there is no question that the SEC is the best football conference in the land and it is the Big Ten that needs to make a move to catch up to the SEC, not the other way around. One key difference between the two is that the SEC doesn’t have its own television network but it already has a huge 15-year contract with ESPN to broadcast their games. Adding more teams is not going make the conference any richer (in fact, depending on the terms of any SEC expansion, it may cause the existing teams to have to split the existing contractual revenue into more slices). So just because the Big Ten gets bigger doesn’t mean that the SEC is necessarily going to respond in kind. SEC commissioner Mike Slive’s comment that “if there is going to be a significant shift in the conference paradigm, the SEC will be strategic and thoughtful to make sure it maintains its position as one of the nation’s pre-eminent conferences” can  be read either way.

However, if they did pursue expansion, the only problem they would have is choosing between their many different options, a decision that would likely be influenced by how the Big Ten got to 16. If the Big Ten raided the Big East to the point of near-extinction, teams like South Florida, West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati would be pretty good matches with the SEC. If the Big 12 lost Nebraska and Missouri, perhaps Oklahoma and Texas would fall into the SEC’s lap. Or maybe the SEC tries to get out ahead of the game and go after schools like Florida State, Miami, Clemson and Georgia Tech from the ACC, all of whom would be better matches with the SEC both in terms of geography and philosophy, triggering a whole different set of dominoes.

ACC

It is possible that even if the Big Ten expands to 16, the ACC could get out of this whole mess unscathed and unchanged. It is also possible that any of Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland or Miami could be gone and any of Cincinnati, Connecticut, Lousiville, South Florida and West Virginia could be in. So far there is no indication that the ACC has any interest in expanding beyond twelve teams and likely any move that the ACC were to make would have to be in response to other fallen dominoes which finally reached them, courtesy of either poaching by the Big East or the SEC.

By the time you get down to discussing the potential fallout of Big Ten expansion reaching the ACC, you’ve got what-ifs and maybes piled sky high and the potential flowchart diagramming the whole mess beginning to double back on itself. I suppose the ACC has the best chance of avoiding any of the blowback from changes made up the line from them, but at the same time they seem to be in a spot where they are just going to have to react to whatever changes around them. There is no possible scenario where the ACC goes away in the short term, as the core of the conference on Tobacco Road is going nowhere, but the peripheral teams outside of that area may shift. And, it isn’t even out of the realm of possibility that the ACC is comfortable sliding back to just ten teams, or even eight or nine, given their troubles selling any number of tickets to their football championship, and even recently lagging ticket sales for the ACC Tournament.

Figure 6: ACC Fallout

Other Conferences

As all the dominoes above fall, there will undoubtedly be fallout in the non-BCS conferences. The Atlantic 10 could be raided by the Big East for their basketball-only schools. Depending on the number of teams that leave that conference, they could be looking for teams from either the Colonial or the MAAC. Conference USA teams could be replacements for Big East football schools, or if those schools decide that the Big East without Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse is not for them, there could be an entirely new conference made up of some of those leftover Big East football schools and some of the Conference USA teams. It’s even possible teams in the lower rungs of the conference (St. Bonaventure, Fordham, La Salle) find their way back down to conferences like the MAAC, the America East or the NEC. The Mountain West could either be the beneficiary of teams after the breakup of the Big 12, or the league itself could be erased as those teams head either to the Pac-10 or the Big 12 in other scenarios. And it is certainly possible that the WAC and the MWC might find each other thrust together again (they split in the late 90s) if they lose even a handful of teams. Short-term, the MWC doesn’t want to add just a single team to get up to ten (Boise State has been the hot-topic of conversation around the MWC for a couple of years) because of the football scheduling implications for Air Force (a 10-team MWC would require nine regular season games, and the Air Force has two non-conference obligations to their fellow military academies, leaving them just one “free” game each year), but if Utah leaves for the Pac-10 and Boise State brings along some combination of Nevada, New Mexico State, Utah State and Fresno State to form a 12-team conference, that could be a possibility (nevermind the side-effects of leaving schools like Hawaii, Idaho and San Jose State out in the cold).

Summary

In the end, it is clear that we could be on the precipice of an era of wholesale expansion of major conferences to 12 teams at a minimum, or as far as 16 for two or three conferences, and there has even been some talk of the Big East doing some pre-emptive expansion of their own, to as many as 20 teams. While the Big Ten is likely the first big domino in a long line of them, there are plenty of key points along the line where sanity could take over and prevent a complete makeover of the college sports scene as we currently know it. But the Big Ten blowing right by twelve and becoming the Big sixTEeN will likely force at least the Big East and Big 12 to scramble, and a couple other properly placed blows (like the Pac-10 poaching Colorado) could set the whole thing tumbling.  Is this a good thing for college basketball and intercollegiate sports in general?  We suppose that it depends on your perspective, but one thing we’re quite certain of is that the moneyed interests playing this shell game don’t really care what we (or you) think.  Caveat emptor. 

There are no announcements here and there are no notifications here.”  Delany said the expansion process remains in an early phase. He said it’s too early to tell whether the 11-team conference would add one or as many as five teams. He said his thinking wasn’t being heavily influenced by a desire to hold a conference championship game in December. He also said he doesn’t know how quickly an expanded league could be put together.  He would not deny, however, that programs are being evaluated for their potential fit in the Big Ten.  “I didn’t say we weren’t at that phase, I said we are not at the phase of any need to provide notice to an institution, that we were in formal discussions with an institution.”

We counted at least five uses of the negative in his two quotes there.  Delaney uses two more in another interview with USA Today, where he said the Big Ten is: 

“not anywhere near” [approaching or adding new schools.]  “We have not accelerated anything” [with respect to the 12-18 month timetable.]

Delany’s manner of speaking reminds us of the old unknown unknown bit from Donald Rumsfeld in the mid-2000s.  It wouldn’t have surprised us to hear Delany segue into a similar lecture on what the knowns and unknowns are with respect to conference expansion, all the while dropping double-negatives and enough qualifiers and derivatives to make Goldman Sachs blush these days. 

The bottom line is this, though.  Missouri, Pitt, Rutgers, UConn and Notre Dame fans can all rest easy now.  Until they can’t anymore, which will happen at a time and place known only to Delany and his cronies  and will be pushed upon the American people without provocation or consideration.  All we ask is that when it comes time to actually add one, three, or five new teams to the Big Ten Conference, Delany doesn’t continue to play this game by telling us that, for example, ”Missouri may not be under consideration in the current phase, but that doesn’t mean that they weren’t ever under consideration nor does it preclude them from future consideration.  It wouldn’t make good business sense to not consider them at some point.”  Um, thanks.

1. Whew, things aren’t slowing down much in comings and goings.  Colorado filled its open head coaching position with Tad Boyle, the Northern Colorado coach who took a transitional D1 program to 25 wins and second place in the Big Sky this season.  Appalachian State is reported to be filling its open position vacated by Buzz Peterson with another former UNC player, Jason Capel.  The 30-year old Capel has only one season of experience as an assistant under his belt, but he clearly has the name recognition in the state of North Carolina that should help with recruiting.  Washington’s Lorenzo Romar parlayed his run to the Sweet Sixteen into a ten-year contract extension (through 2020), which shows again how important March has become.  On the NBA Draft side, Richmond’s Kevin Anderson will test the waters to see what he needs to improve upon for next season, and BYU’s Jimmer Fredette will do likewise.  Neither player will sign with an agent, leaving open the possibility of a return to school next season.  Fredette is currently projected as a late first/early second round pick, while Anderson is likely undrafted at this point (which means he should return).
2. The Fred Hill saga at Rutgers has finally ended, with the embattled head coach agreeing to a settlement with the school worth $850,000 to resign his position.  This was an embarrassing week for the State University of New Jersey, but the school can now get back to the more important issue of finding a coach to save this moribund basketball program.  Eddie Jordan, Fran Fraschilla and Jim O’Brien are reportedly on the short list.
3. Meet Zach Lipson, the next Kentucky equipment manager, and one of the neatest stories you’ll read about keeping your head up and having faith in your abilities.
4. This is an incredible column.  First, we’d been wondering why we hadn’t seen Bill Walton on any NBA/NCAA broadcasts for a while, and this explains why.  But second, it now puts the notorious UCLA loss to Notre Dame in 1974 to end the 88-game winning streak in a completely new light.  The Big Redhead played with broken bones in his back — take that Evan Turner!
5. From yougotdunkedon.com, This is a fun mix of some of the best dunks of the 2009-10 season.  Which is your fav?  For our money, it’s Travis Leslie… wow!

Rosario can fill it up, and he'll fit in well at UF. (W. Perlman/Star-Ledger)

Rosario was a highly regarded high school star at the legendary St. Anthony High School in Jersey City, listed as the ninth-ranked shooting guard in the nation as a high school senior and a four-star recruit overall. That promise was definitely realized in his freshman year at Rutgers in 2008-09 as Rosario contributed 16.2 PPG and 3.5 RPG.  But he really came to our attention last summer during the FIBA Under-19 World Championships in Auckland, New Zealand.  Rosario averaged 24.0 PPG playing for the team from Puerto Rico, and while his team finished a respectable fifth place out of 16 teams, Rosario was one of the stars of the tournament.  A game-tough, gritty guard with a knack for scoring, he displayed that knack all over the French U19 team, lighting them up for 54 points and leading PR to a come-from-behind one point victory in that game.  His average of 24.0 PPG led the tournament (which was won by the USA, by the way).

Rosario will fit in well at Florida.  Billy Donovan doesn’t have a quick trigger when it comes to yanking players after they take a bad shot, and Rosario occasionally can put up a questionable one.  Consider, though, that Rosario was asked to carry a lot of the load in the impotent Rutgers offense last season, and his 16.7 PPG last year made him the Knights’ leading scorer, over four points higher than second place Gregory Echenique.  Given a year to gain his bearings in Gainesville, practice with the likes of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker, and learn Donovan’s way of doing things, Rosario could give Donovan one of the top backcourts in the game in 2011-12.

]]> http://rushthecourt.net/2010/04/19/mike-rosario-will-fit-in-well-at-florida/feed/ 1 http://rushthecourt.net/2010/04/15/morning-five-tax-day-edition/ http://rushthecourt.net/2010/04/15/morning-five-tax-day-edition/#comments Thu, 15 Apr 2010 07:18:30 +0000 rtmsf http://rushthecourt.net/?p=21304

1. Yesterday was the first day of the national spring signing period, and there were a couple of mid-major surprises (Butler Effect or just pater familias?) in addition to everyone else in America signing with John Calipari.  Ok, we’re (partially) kidding on the last part, but Cat fans should get used to a revolving door in Lexington for as long as the 1-and-done rule is still in effect.  Here are the updated Scout.com class rankings — UNC and Memphis both have three 3-star players coming in next season.
2. Andy Katz introduces us to the 2011 NCAA Tournament Committee chairman, Ohio State AD Gene Smith.  The most interesting part — like seemingly everyone else outside NCAA HQ, he’d prefer that the Tourney stay at 65 teams as well.
3. A couple of interesting lists here.  First, five players who helped and five players who hurt their stock during the NCAA Tournament, as described by an NBA scout.  This one is five players who should be sticking around for another year, although none of them will be.
4. Zagsblog is reporting that Rutgers transfer candidate Mike Rosario will visit Florida on Friday.  This would be a solid get for Billy Donovan’s club for the 2011-12 season.
5. Joe Lunardi has his new 2010-11 Bracketology out, and you’ll note that it assumes a 96-team field.  Enjoy those #12-#21 matchups.

Starting with the daily NBA Draft exodus, Butler fans are today experiencing life as a top-tier program, as star forward Gordon Hayward announced that he will be testing the waters to determine just how much his game translates to the next level.  6’9 forwards with three-point range and guard-like skills aren’t growing on trees these days, so there’s a strong likelihood that Hayward — a probable lottery pick — has seen his last minute as a Bulldog.  But he will not sign with an agent, and there’s a good possibility that he could return for another run at the Final Four next year in Houston.

We already knew about Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson’s pending announcement for the NBA Draft, but teammate E’Twaun Moore’s caught us a little by surprise.  Moore is not projected as a draftee on either of the two major NBA Draft projection sites, but apparently he recognizes that fact because he will not sign with an agent this year.  Losing both of these players would devastate the Final Four chances for the Boilermakers next year, but there’s a better than reasonable chance that both could return to Matt Painter’s team in 2010-11.

DePaul’s Mac Koshwal is joining the crowd and leaving school for the NBA Draft as well.  He is gone for good, as he tested the waters last year and you only get a single shot in that regard.  At 6’10 and 240 pounds, Koshwal is an intriguing prospect inside and he will get a strong look among teams needing frontcourt depth in the second round.  He averaged 16/10 on a terrible Blue Demon team in 2009-10, but apparently didn’t want to deal with a brand-new coach coming into the program for what would have been his senior campaign.

Things continue to improve at Rutgers as their star player Mike Rosario has received permission to transfer out of the program.  He must not believe that he is draft-ready or we’d probably see his name coming out along with all the rest.  Rosario is a volume shooter, averaging 17/4 while putting up a third of the shots in Fred Hill’s offense last season (#38 nationally).  The school has agreed to release him conditionally, which means that Rutgers must approve the school to which he wants to transfer.  Presumably that would mean no Big East teams or other local rivals.

After several whiffs with elite name coaches, Oregon reportedly focused on a much  more realistic target — Missouri’s Mike Anderson — offering him a salary of $3M per year to move to Eugene (double his current salary).  Our first impression was that this was a solid strategy, as Anderson is one of the most underrated coaches in America, and his system is very tough to prepare for.  But he’s already turned down offers in recent years from SEC schools and Memphis, so the only true attraction would have been the dollar-value of the contract and the new facilities available to him in Eugene.  Needless to say, he denied interest later this evening.

Stevens Will Be in Indy For a While (AP/D. Cummings)

Fans at Oregon, Wake Forest, Clemson and Rutgers are all probably disappointed in this news, but it’s possible that the only job Stevens would seriously consider taking in the future is at regal home-state program Indiana.  Even though Stevens went to school at DePauw University, it’s well known that he’s a Hoosier at heart.  But at least now those programs can move away from their lovesick pursuit of Stevens to a more realistic choice that fits their values and goals.  You have to love the coaching carousel!

John Calipari has a major rebuilding task ahead of him in the 2010-11 season, as his five best players are leaving the program for the bluer waters of the NBA Draft.  In a move that shocked absolutely no one, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton all declared today, leaving UK with just a handful of returning scholarship players heading into next season.  According to KSR, however, P-Pat has yet to file his papers although he would undoubtedly become a top fifteen pick when he does so.  If all five of these guys stay in this year’s draft, it’s likely that each of them would be selected in the top twenty, a first in the history of the event.  This begs the question, of course, whether we should be impressed by so many draft-worthy players on a single team; or by the curious fact that five top twenty picks couldn’t even make it to the Final Four despite an embarrassment of talent at its disposal.

Ohio State’s National POY Evan Turner also declared that he will enter the draft today, and as the presumed #2 overall pick he is making a good decision.  The multi-talented point forward has a chance to become an outstanding perimeter player at the next level, and we’re very happy that his year turned out the way it did after a horrific fall in December threatened to derail his season and (potentially) career.  Some other names that threw their hats into the ring today were: Kansas’ Xavier Henry, who is expected to fall into the #8-#20 range, Xavier’s Jordan Crawford (late 1st/early 2d round), Cincinnati’s Lance Stephenson (late 1st/early 2d round), Marshall’s Hassan Whiteside (late lottery pick), Oklahoma’s Willie Warren (early 2d round), Dayton’s Chris Wright (mid 2d round), Texas’ Avery Bradley (late 1st round), and Florida’s Alex Tyus (undrafted).  Stephenson is the most interesting case study in why we should never listen to players during the season with respect to this stuff, as he clearly stated earlier this season that his return to Cincinnati for a sophomore campaign was ‘definite.’   He’s already signed with an agent, so that sophomore season will have to occur elsewhere.  Can we just say this again for the record?  Please, please David Stern — negotiate a two-year rule for players after their HS class graduates or none at all.

Moving to coaching news, the surprise of the day was the abrupt dismissal of Wake Forest’s Dino Gaudio by the school on Wednesday.  Gaudio was 61-31 in three seasons at the school, but what sealed his fate were his 1-5 postseason record that included two epic collapses down the stretch of the last two years.  It’s unlikely Wake AD Ron Wellman would make this move without a serious candidate in mind, so we should expect to see this position filled in a matter of days.  In more pleasant news, Cornell’s Steve Donahue accepted the job at Boston College, which makes a lot of sense given his northeastern pedigree, and the Rutgers job may be opening up as soon as Thursday if Fred Hill is canned as a result of his bizarre insubordination in the form of attending a baseball game (JR Inman must be ecstatic!).

We decided to take a historical look at some situations in the last fifty years of the Final Four where we feel that there could have been a home court advantage of some kind for the Final Four and Championship Games.  We tried to limit our choices to a three-hour driving radius from the host venue, but we recognize that some fanbases will travel to the moon to see their team while others can’t be trifled with moving off the couch.  So bear with us.

A brief review found seventeen such instances in the last half-century (Butler @ Indy is #18).  Of special note is that there were only seven situations where a team got to play in its home state (including last year’s Michigan State @ Detroit situation) and only twice where a Final Four school played its games in its home city as Butler will do this coming weekend (UCLA both times).  Here’s the list of what you really want to know, and we’ll break down each instance below that to determine if we think HCA had an impact. 

Final Fours Involving Home Teams

• 2009 – Michigan State (@ Detroit) – 90 miles.  Ford Field was completely full of Spartan fans last year, and it may have helped Tom Izzo’s club play inspired basketball to pull of an upset in the semifinals against UConn.  It was not at all helpful against UNC two nights later, though, as Sparty got run out of the building in a total mismatch.  If we were going to suggest an effect of holding HCA here, it would have been only in the semifinal game.
• 2005 – Illinois (@ St. Louis) – 180 miles.  This one was pretty far from Champaign, but there are Illini fans aplenty all over the state of Illinois and in the St. Louis metro area, so it’s not too much of a stretch to call Bruce Weber’s team the home team here.  The problem is that they were already a really good team that easily beat a Cinderella in Louisville before playing and losing to eventual national champ UNC in the final minutes.  It’s very hard to say that there was an HCA here because Deron Williams’ and Dee Brown’s Illini were so good.
• 1994 – Duke (@ Charlotte) – 140 miles.  This Duke team was hoping to re-enact NC State’s title run within the state lines some twenty years prior.  After a matchup in the semis against Florida that the home crowd may have helped with a little bit, they then lost to a superior Arkansas team in the national title game.  It’s difficult to project just how much being in Charlotte helped, but keep in mind too that Duke doesn’t have the in-state following like UNC and NC State do. 
• 1988 – Kansas (@ Kansas City) – 35 miles.  If there was ever a home court advantage that helped an underdog get through, this may have been it.  The #6 seed Jayhawks, playing a half-hour from campus in the heart of Big 8 Country, took down Duke and Oklahoma in succession behind Danny Manning and the Miracles.  The game wasn’t actually in their home state of Kansas, but it may as well have been (Kemper Arena is located mere feet away from the MO/KS border).  Does Butler have a Danny Manning?
• 1980 – Purdue (@ Indianapolis) – 65 miles.  This year there were two teams at the Final Four who were within easy driving distance of the games, but Purdue was not the beneficiary.  Despite playing a #8 seed UCLA, the Boilermakers lost by five points in their home state of Indiana roughly an hour away from campus. 
• 1980 – Louisville (@ Indianapolis) – 115 miles.  In a completely jacked-up Final Four that featured a #2 seed (Louisville), a #5 seed (Iowa), a #6 seed (Purdue) and a #8 seed (UCLA), Louisville was clearly the best team left.  The Cardinals undoubtedly had good support in Indy for their first-ever national title run, but they probably could have won this event in Nome, Alaska had it been scheduled there instead.
• 1976 – Rutgers (@ Philadelphia) – 60 miles.  Rutgers came out of a very weak east region (beating VMI in the regional finals) to get to the Final Four, where Michigan smacked them around, eventually winning by sixteen points.  Any HCA that RU may have had in Philly was more than counterbalanced by the talent of the Wolverines. 
• 1975 – UCLA (@ San Diego) – 120 miles.  There was so much going on here that it’s hard to say what mattered the most.  John Wooden’s retirement game.  The fact that UCLA dodged playing previously-unbeaten Indiana in the finals because Kentucky had knocked them out the week before.  The Bruins’ semifinal game was an overtime one-point victory over Louisville, and the UK game was a relatively close affair as well.  Did HCA help?  Maybe a little bit, but it’s difficult to state definitively that any UCLA team of this era wouldn’t have won wherever they played the games.
• 1974 – NC State (@ Greensboro) – 80 miles.  This NC State team led by David Thompson was really, really good, but make no mistake, UCLA in the semis and Marquette in the finals were playing road games.  There was a serious pride of basketball in the ACC at that time and they were intent on showing how good their league was by packing the house with NC State partisans and cheering the Wolfpack home to victory.  NCSU was good enough to win those games without fan support, but old-timers still like to talk about how great their local support was there.
• 1972 – UCLA (@ Los Angeles) - 10 miles.  It doesn’t get much more home than sleeping in your own bed and playing in your home city, and even though LA is a really big place, UCLA had a serious advantage this year.  The problem with attributing HCA to the victory is that the Bruins were the five-time defending champs and in the midst of an 88-game winning streak at the time.  They likely could have played this game in semifinalist Louisville and runner-up Florida State’s buildings and still won the games.
• 1969 – Purdue (@ Louisville) – 180 miles.  This is a tenuous HCA as Purdue is located a solid three-hour drive from Louisville, and they destroyed UNC in the semifinal round anyway.  But like mentioned above, UCLA simply wasn’t going to be beaten in this era even if the games were being played in West Lafayette. 
• 1968 – UCLA (@ Los Angeles) - 10 miles.  Alcindor, Allen, Shackleford… enough said.  UCLA blew out Houston in the Game of the Century rematch and followed that up with a pasting of UNC to win it all.  HCA was irrelevant with this team.
• 1967 – Dayton (@ Louisville) – 150 miles.  Dayton was a Cinderella in getting to the Final Four this year, having had to win an opening round game over Western Kentucky to advance, and the Flyers eventually made the championship game before running into none other than that same group led by Alcindor, et al., whom they were never going to beat.  There’s a possibility that a mild HCA effect helped UD get past North Carolina in the semifinals, though.
• 1964 – Kansas State (@ Kansas City) - 115 miles.  There didn’t appear to be any HCA help here as K-State fell in the semifinals to UCLA en route to John Wooden’s first national championship. 
• 1963 – Cincinnati (@ Louisville) – 100 miles.  From 1959-63, Cincinnati went to the Final Four five consecutive times.  Twice — 1961 and 1962 — they won the national championship.  In this particular year, the Bearcats destroyed an overmatched Oregon State team in the semis before losing in OT in the finals to Loyola (Chicago).  We’re not sure that HCA could have helped them any more than it already did.
• 1962 – Cincinnati (@ Louisville) – 100 miles.  As mentioned above, the Bearcats won their second straight title this year, and HCA may have helped a little with respect to the semifinal game against UCLA that UC won by two points. 
• 1960 – California (@ San Francisco) – 14 miles.  Cal was the local team and the defending national champs, but they’d experienced some injuries to key personnel and were blown out by Jerry Lucas’ Ohio State Buckeyes in the final game.  It’s possible that the semifinal game against Oscar Robertson could have in part been explained by HCA, but the Big O never led his team to a championship while in Cincinnati. 

Conclusion

After carefully reviewing all of these instances of a team playing the Final Four close to home, we’re falling on the side of a very mild HCA impact.  In the majority of cases, the teams that are playing at home are going to win or lose their game(s) regardless of where they’re played.  Many of the above situations involving the UCLA dynasty were exactly such situations.  Whether the Bruins played in Pauley Pavilion, Louisville or France was irrelevant — they had the better players and the better team.  In a minority of situations where the two teams are fairly evenly matched — such as last year’s Michigan State-UConn game or Duke-Florida in 1994 — we think that the home team has a small advantage.  This could come into play this weekend as many people believe that Butler and Michigan State are an even matchup (Vegas has the Bulldogs favored by one point).  There are also a couple of situations (1988 and 1974 in particular) where we believe a home team that is backed by a rabid following in a basketball hotbed has even a better chance than the norm.  The problem with this analysis with respect to Butler is that even though they’re the home team and all unaffiliated fans will root for them, the Bulldogs still aren’t IU or Purdue in this area.  Put one of those two teams into this same situation and suddenly we might have a home-team lightning-in-the-bottle scenario again.  Does Butler have the same kind of rabid basketball following to make this a pit for Michigan State and the others?  We don’t think they do, but we’d happily take our medicine if we end up being wrong.