Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Three things from the past week:

• Big Ten takes down Big East – Purdue beats West Virginia. If anyone tuned in, it was pretty clear that Purdue deserves its #4 ranking, while proving that the Big Ten can hang with the Big East. As an aside, Pittsburgh is currently 3-0 in the Big East, taking down Syracuse for its first loss. Reminder: Indiana beat Pittsburgh earlier this year.  Check out the story here at ATB – New Year’s Weekend
• Cinderella lost her slipper – Unfortunately for Northwestern, its early season Cinderella had a setback on its way to the Big Dance. Northwestern sneezed, and now find themselves out of the top 25 after losses to Illinois and Michigan State.
• The Bucks got scratched – I could have predicted the Wisconsin game, especially up in Madison, although I didn’t think it was going to be a 20 point blowout. The one that shocked me though, was the loss to Michigan, especially after they were coming off an upset loss to Indiana. It is pretty clear that the current OSU team cannot contend in the Big Ten. Can Evan Turner come out and play? Hopefully sooner than later.

Now three Big Ten teams are in the top 25: Purdue #4, Michigan State #10, and Wisconsin #17.

Power Rankings

1. Purdue    14-0, 2-0
2. Michigan State    11-3, 1-0
3. Wisconsin    12-2, 2-0
4. Ohio State    10-4, 0-2
5. Minnesota    11-4, 2-1
6. Illinois    10-5, 2-0
7. Northwestern    10-3, 0-2
8. Michigan    7-6, 1-1
9. Indiana    7-6, 1-0
10. Penn State    8-6, 0-2
11. Iowa    5-10, 0-3

Top Story

• Big 10 Madness has begun – Conference play started this past week in the Big Ten, and they didn’t disappoint. Indiana loses Maurice Creek, their top scorer and player, and then they upset Michigan at home. Michigan, not to be outdone, gets revenge for what their football team couldn’t do against OSU. Wisconsin, not wanting to miss out, blows out both OSU and PSU. Surprisingly, only Michigan and Minnesota have at least a win and a loss. Everyone else either hasn’t lost, or hasn’t won.

Coming Up

• Wisconsin @ Michigan State – January 6^th – 6:30 ET – Unless things change with Purdue, this is really the game that decides who will be in 2^nd place. Wisconsin hasn’t ventured out of Madison much this year, so hopefully MSU can capitalize at home.
• Purdue @ Wisconsin – January 9^th – 1:30 ET – Apparently the pundits are saying that this game is the one that Purdue will lose, but depending on what happens when the Badgers take on the Spartans, this could be the game that really separates Purdue from the pack.  Check out what the pundits say about the four teams who are left chasing perfection: Four Teams Chasing Perfection
• Ohio State @ Minnesota – January 9^th – 3:30 ET – Ohio State is clearly vulnerable, and this game could show just how vulnerable. I think that Purdue will hand it to the Gophers on the 5^th at Mackey, but Minnesota is tough at home, and OSU is not at full strength. The Bucks could fall even further. This isn’t even factoring in what happens with the Indiana @ OSU game.

Breaking It Down

• Purdue is one of four left still standing. Purdue now has a huge bull’s eye on its back. As one of only four teams left unbeaten, it will make a team’s season to take down Purdue. If Purdue’s Big Three in Hummel, Johnson, and Moore can duplicate what they did against West Virginia, any team in the land will have their hands full.
• The Spartans took care of business. Like I said last week, good teams are supposed to win games against opponents who aren’t as good, and that’s exactly what MSU did against Northwestern. Tom Izzo hasn’t been happy with the leadership on this team all year, and he benched Kalin Lucas as a result. Lucas got the message loud and clear, and brought his A-game against the Wildcats. He and others will have to bring much more against Wisconsin.
• Wisconsin shifting gears to spring ahead in the Big Ten. I have already mentioned plenty about Wisconsin both in the games to watch, and what happened in the last week, so I will keep it brief here. Wisconsin had a pretty good draw in their first games, given that they played an Evan Turner-less OSU and then Penn State. They don’t have the good fortune of that continuing, with upcoming games against MSU and Purdue.
• Ohio State needs a recovery game, and quick. I have talked plenty about OSU, so I will just mention their upcoming game against Indiana. Clearly this is a home game for OSU, so they should take care of business, but if they slip and Indiana brings its varsity team, OSU could be 0-4 if Minnesota doesn’t let them off the hook at home.
• Minnesota got two bye games, but now has to climb a mountain. Yes, Minnesota had a seven game streak, and yes, Minnesota is 2-1 in the Big Ten. That’s the good news. Now for the bad news. This is now officially the point in the year, as evidenced by the Purdue game last night, when Minnesota has to play real teams.  Like Tuesday’s game against Purdue, their upcoming game against Ohio State is must-see for this reason.
• Illinois likes long games. Illinois went more than the distance twice this past week, getting the better of Northwestern, and coming up short against Gonzaga. Was Mike Tisdale’s career high 31/11 against Northwestern a fluke? It might seem so, as he followed up with four points and five fouls against Gonzaga. They disposed of Iowa at home, and now hit the road to Bloomington where I will be watching this game just prior to school starting again. I expect to see plenty of fans at Assembly Hall.
• Northwestern has fallen, can they get up? The good news: my man John Shurna is back, and in a big way. He had a 27/7 game against Illinois and followed it up with a 29/6 game against Michigan State. Clearly, he is a conference gamer. The bad news: not everyone else on the team has come with him, including their defense. Michael Thompson has been ice cold, going 2-10 against Illinois and then following it up with 2-8 against MSU, never achieving double figures in either game. Nothing close to his 15.3 PPG average on the year. The past two games, opponents are averaging 90 PPG, whereas they had only allowed 63.7 PPG for the year. The Wildcats will need to find a way to deal with the Big 10 fire power if they want to make the Big Dance.
• Michigan continues its inconsistent season. Each game is a new surprise for Michigan. One would have thought they would have come into Assembly Hall and disposed of Indiana without Maurice Creek, but they didn’t. Then, one would think they would fall to OSU, even without Evan Turner, but they didn’t. What is Michigan going to do next? That’s what I want to know. Clearly whatever happens will involve two guys by the names of Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, the fab two.
• Indiana steps up in Creek’s absence. Indiana brought the team that played against Pittsburgh to the game against Michigan. I will refer to that team as the varsity squad, as they have brought the junior varsity to a couple games (Loyola, most games in Puerto Rico, etc). The stats against Michigan actually mirror the Pittsburgh game, where Verdell Jones III and Christian Watford led the team. Creek’s points look like they will be coming from Jordan Hulls and Devan Dumes, both streaky three-point shooters. Indiana can play with anyone if they bring their varsity. Will they?
• Penn State bruised during Week 1. Talor Battle is putting on a one man show. Too bad it’s a five man game. Battle went for 23/6/4 against Minnesota and 15/4/4 against Wisconsin. Penn State’s 46 points against Wisconsin isn’t going to get it done in the Big 10, especially when only 3 points come from the bench. Bench production has been a problem all year for Penn State, as it is probably a cause of the starters running out of gas at the end of games.
• Iowa is fishing for a W. As predicted last week, Iowa lost the first two Big Ten games. The good news: Aaron Fuller likes to play during conference games (12.5 PPG in conference vs. 5.1 during the rest of the year). Keys to winning: Iowa needs the bench to get involved every game. Against Purdue: The bench scored 9 and Iowa scored 56. Against Minnesota: The bench scored 28 points and Iowa scored 74. Coincidence? I think not. I am still not sure Iowa will get a W for a while. Go fish.

RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every Tuesday as the season progresses.

1. More than the countless Big East tournament runs at the Garden, or the contention for conference regular season titles on a yearly basis, or reaching upper-echelon status in college basketball playing with no flashy All-American recruits, Jamie Dixon is proving his worth as a coach this year more than ever. Few teams lost as much talent, leadership, and production as senior point guard Levance Fields, dominating big man DeJuan Blair and outside threat Sam Young. The departure of these three mainstays plus two projected starters for 2009-10, Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown, beginning the year MIA prompted many preseason prognosticators (including myself) to deem Pittsburgh a non-contender in the rugged Big East. My mistake, Jamie. The Panthers just finished one of their most difficult Big East road stretches of the year with two statement victories at previously undefeated Syracuse and at fringe-ranked Cincinnati. Sophomore Ashton Gibbs is taking his experience from playing under Dixon at the U19 Games to good use, running the Pitt offense with superb efficiency, shooting the ball lights out from deep and breaking the all-time Pitt record for consecutive free throws made in the process. Brown has his academics in order and used his athleticism to make a few back-breaking baskets against Cincy last night. Dixon provides stellar defense and outside shooting. It remains to be seen whether Pitt can stay at the top of the Big East with less talent than the other squads, but we do know that Dixon’s team will play smarter and tougher than any opponent. And that always gives them a fighting chance.

2. The most significant win this New Year’s week had to be Purdue running away from West Virginia to remain unblemished and surpass the Mountaineers as a projected #1 seed at this stage of the season. Purdue and coach Matt Painter have constructed their program unlike many of their other counterparts atop the rankings on a weekly basis. There’s no Xavier Henry, Avery Bradley, Devin Ebanks or John Wall walking through the doors of Mackey Arena to play for the Boilers for one or two years; instead, their 2009-10 highly ranked squad features a group of players that have been together for three straight seasons, such a rarity in the age of one-and-done players and the glorification of NBA riches. This specific group of players- Robbie Hummel, Chris Kramer, JaJuan Johnson, E’Twaun Moore, Keaton Grant– have practiced and played together for three straight years now, stepping up the ladder slowly but surely in the college hoops landscape. They took the Big Ten by surprise in 2007-08 before falling in the second round to Xavier and climbed up another step by reaching the Sweet 16 a season ago. This year they hope to reach the top and cut down the nets in nearby Indianapolis with a group of kids that have been through the ups and downs of a college basketball season together more than once- a group of lightly-recruited but tough-minded individuals that will utilize defensive intensity and offensive efficiency to reach the ultimate goal Hummel, Johnson, Moore and others been striving for since arriving in West Lafayette.

3. Think about this for a second: Despite losing three four-year starters that all played 30+ MPG and notched 10+ PPG, Marquette coach Buzz Williams would probably tell you that his Golden Eagles should be staring at a 12-2 (2-0) record with wins over top-ten Villanova and West Virginia and another top-25 team in Florida State. Typical of young, inexperienced squads, Marquette has simply been unable to close games this season against stellar competition. If Darius Johnson-Odom and Jimmy Butler don’t miss two front ends of 1-and-1 opportunities, Da’Sean Butler’s game-winning shot never happens and Marquette has the second most impressive road win in the country this season (just behind Pitt stunning Syracuse). Up two Saturday against Villanova, Johnson-Odom again stepped to the line up two points and 2:35 left on the clock. Both of those attempts bricked, and, couple that with a bunny missed by Butler at the buzzer, the Golden Eagles again fell just short. Rewind back to November in the Old Spice Classic where Marquette held a 30-18 lead at half against FSU and a 10-point cushion midway through the second half, but squandered the lead. I haven’t even included the NC State game where Marquette lead by 11 at the intermission. Closing out games has been a devastating problem for Buzz Williams’ squad this season, and these close losses could very well cost Marquette a spot in the field come March if they’re sitting on the bubble.

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Over the long holiday weekend, Syracuse and West Virginia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only four teams — Kansas, Texas, Kentucky & Purdue — with a shot at the holy grail of a perfect season.  None of the coaches will admit to it on the record, but they all hate losing, and each of them would welcome a chance to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to win every game put in front of them.  There’s only one problem.  It’s collectively called the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten gauntlets schedules. 

As you’re well aware, there have only been two schools in the last two decades who have run the regular season table — UNLV in 1991, and St. Joseph’s in 2004 — and of course the aforementioned Hoosiers a generation ago were the last to go unblemished throughout.  There are many reasons for this, especially given that it’s difficult to win every single game with a growing target on your back, but the primary reason that Tark’s Rebels and Martelli’s Hawks were able to do it when so many other great teams were not was because they played in mid-major conferences (the Big West and Atlantic 10, respectively).  This is not to say that those conferences are cakewalks, because they’re not.  Every league has its share of rivalry games, other good programs and rattlesnake pits disguised as home gyms that make life difficult on favorites.  But what those conferences provide that is often missing among the BCS conferences are the true bottom-feeders that give elite teams such as UNLV/St. Joe’s breaks on a given night.  Have a tough shooting night at Vandy or Baylor?  You’re going home with your first L.  A tough shooting night at Fordham or Long Beach, though?  You’re probably still ok. 

With the clear knowledge in mind that all four of the remaining unbeatens are going to lose a regular season game (or several), let’s take a look at the remaining schedules to pinpoint exactly when and where that might happen.  First, let’s see what Pomeroy has to say.  He provides percentage odds on every future game, and if you extrapolate out over the rest of the year, you can start to pinpoint the true likelihood of when that first loss might occur.

This is a good starting point, as Purdue appears to be the most likely candidate to lose next (@ Wisconsin on Saturday), while Kansas seems to be the most likely team to run the table (10.2% isn’t exactly a lock, though).  The statistical analysis Pomeroy provides only tells part of the story, though, so we’re going to break down each team’s likelihood of its next loss using another analytical tool – our brain. 

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Ok, the time for messing around is over.  Let’s get conference play started and see what those top teams are really made of, shall we?  Analysis after the jump…

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

The biggest note: this is the most subjective bracket of the process. With RPI still evolving into a tool worth considering substantially, I had to construct this bracket primarily on 1) quality wins and bad losses in non-conference play, 2) non-conference SOS and 3) simple W-L record. Even conference RPI can’t be factored in yet because teams have played, at most, three conference games. With RPI rounding into form as January progresses, the bracket will switch from a more subjective process (had to use the eye test a few times, which I despise) to a more objective compilation.

• The #1 and #2 seeds were fairly straightforward. Due to Syracuse tripping up at home to Pittsburgh Saturday, the process became much easier and the four undefeated teams remaining earned the #1 nod. Three Big East teams earned nods as a #2 seed, all with one loss: West Virginia, Villanova and Syracuse. Duke was the other obvious choice for the second line.
• One of the more interesting cases was Ohio State. How much do I penalize them for the loss of Evan Turner? I was fairly harsh in the opening bracket following a discouraging defeat to Michigan and a blowout loss at Wisconsin. I’m fairly sure the Buckeyes will be moving further up the bracket when Turner is back in the fold a few weeks from now, but a #11 seed at 0-2 in the Big 10 and wins over California and Florida State seemed appropriate.
• USC will not be included in any of my brackets this year. It’s a shame because they have strong computer numbers and are building a handful of quality wins including Tennessee and UNLV. Like the Pac-10 needed to be hurt any further.
• Some notable snubs were Miami, Oregon and Saint Mary’s.  The point is pretty straightforward: I’m not going to reward you for playing a soft schedule. Miami is 14-1 but has the #85 RPI and #328 SOS in the nation with only notable wins against Minnesota and South Carolina. Oregon may be 2-0 in the Pac-10 but they have some BAD losses and need to do more to find their way into the bracket. The win at Oregon is looking stronger for St. Mary’s, but they still need to do more.
• Since we’re so early, I did factor in “quality” losses for some teams. For example, Dayton lost by under 10 to both Villanova and Kansas State (both top-10 teams) and by 2 at New Mexico (top-20 team). They deserve some credit for those close losses.
• Since we’re early in conference play, I determined the automatic bids among undefeated squads by which team had the highest RPI. I figured I should stay consistent with this throughout the season.

Last Four In: Northwestern, Richmond, Missouri State, Vanderbilt.

Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Saint Mary’s, Oregon.

Automatic bids: Vermont, Temple, Duke, East Tennessee State, Kansas, West Virginia, Weber State, Radford, Purdue, Pacific, William & Mary, UAB, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Western Michigan, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Army, Kentucky, Western Carolina, UT-San Antonio, Texas Southern, Oakland, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Louisiana Tech.

Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (6), Big 10 (6), Mountain West (3), Atlantic-10 (3), Pac-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2).

Next bracket: January 18

New Year’s Football? Coulda fooled us, as there were nearly 200 basketball games over the last four days in every corner of America.  And here’s the rub — a couple dozen of those games held more value than all those meaningless bowls over the same time period.  The bowls are fun for the players and the fans of the teams involved (another reason to tailgate), but they have absolutely no (as in zero; as in 0.00%) bearing on the national title picture in football.  At least games like West Virginia @ Purdue and Louisville @ Kentucky and William & Mary @ Hofstra have implications toward invitation and seeding in the NCAA Tournament in March.  These games matter.  The bowls (save Thursday night) do not.  Let’s see what some of the highlights of the long weekend were.

Unbeaten No More.  Two of the remaining six undefeated teams lost over the weekend — one expected, one unexpected.  On Friday afternoon, a New Year’s Day tilt between the #4 (Purdue) and #6 (West Virginia) teams in America resulted in the Boilermakers running away with the game 77-62.  JaJuan Johnson was awesome on the interior (25/10), completely outplaying the WVU big men Da’Sean Butler (17/7) and Devin Ebanks (11/6) and showing that when he, Robbie Hummel (18/2) and E’Twaun Moore (15/3 assts) are clicking, the Boilermakers can play with anybody in America.  Oddly, WVU shot the ball ok enough to win, and was absolutely scorching from deep (9-12 3FG), but it was the 17 turnovers that did them in.  Time and time again a poor possession on the WVU end (in large part because of their lack of a true PG) led to Purdue points on the other end.  This game was arguably the ‘biggest’ game of the preconference schedule, and Purdue made a real statement as to its legitimacy in this one.

The unexpected loss was #5 Syracuse, who has looked so fantastic this season, dropping a game to rebuilding Pittsburgh on Saturday.  There were quite a few people in the preseason who were writing off Pitt after what was admittedly huge personnel losses from last season, but those people obviously don’t know or care to know that Jamie Dixon is a phenomenal coach (same as Bo Ryan at Wisconsin).  He always figures out how to win with the team he’s got.  His guards attacked the Syracuse zone to the tune of ten threes while holding their own on the boards and forcing Syracuse to miss most of theirs (1-13 from deep).  A 55-point second half behind Ashton Gibbs’ 24 /8 and Jermaine Dixon’s 21/5/4 assts/5 stls for the game gave Pitt its defining win for the season, and it was clear throughout the second twenty minutes that the Panthers were the more aggressive team.  Syracuse’s Wes Johnson (19/6) didn’t have his usual double-double, but the Cuse players are going to have to remember that Big East foes know how to play against their zone and will need to adjust accordingly.

There are four unbeatens remaining. You may have heard of them.  #1 Kansas, #2 Texas, #3 Kentucky, #4 Purdue.

Bluegrass Bloody Brawl.  #3 Kentucky 71, Louisville 62. This was an ugly, ugly game, and the tone was set from the first eight seconds when it was clear that one of Rick Pitino’s primary strategies was going to be to rough up the young Wildcats in an attempt to get in their heads.  It worked with Louisville’s first target, Eric Bledsoe, as he was sent to the bench almost immediately, but it never fazed DeMarcus Cousins (18/18/3 assts) or John Wall (17/4), who were subject to repeated hacks and hard fouls throughout.  This game was a turnover-filled foulfest that included five techs, but when Louisville came back to take a one-point lead at 42-41, it was Wall (who later said he’s not even close to fulfilling his potential) who once again took over the game and made several key plays to give the Wildcats breathing room.  This put UK at 15-0 and at its best start in forty years, making the Wildcat faithful apoplectic over the possibility of what lies ahead.  UK will most certainly lose a game or several in the SEC, but what’s even more amazing to us is that John Calipari is now 86-6 over the last two-plus seasons.  Those are John Wooden/Coach K in their prime type of numbers (before you get all crazy, we’re not saying Calipari is as good as those guys… yet).

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Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Two things from the past week:

• Luckily for Michigan State, it is still December, because they have still yet to prove that they can beat a top 10 team, losing to Texas in the biggest game they have played so far this year.
• I don’t know if you looked at the new AP top 25 poll, but if you have, you may have done a double take when you saw Northwestern at number 25. It’s for real, for the team that has never made the NCAA Tournament, they are well on their way.  Now five Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #4 Purdue, #11 Michigan State, #13 Ohio State, #23 Wisconsin and #25 Northwestern.

Standings

1. Purdue 11-0
2. Michigan State 9-3
3. Ohio State 10-2
4. Wisconsin 10-2
5. Northwestern 10-1
6. Illinois 8-4
7. Minnesota 9-3
8. Penn State 8-4
9. Michigan 6-5
10. Indiana 5-6
11. Iowa 5-7

Top Storyline

This past week was relatively calm with the holiday season, but I believe that was just the calm before the storm. This week there are some amazing matchups that will really show who’s who in the Big Ten, both in conference and on the national stage. Be sure to check out RTC throughout the week to make sure you don’t miss any of the action. If you want to see all of these games, you might need to get a little creative.

Coming Up

• December 30th – Northwestern @ Illinois, 9:00 ET – I think this game, if Northwestern wins, adds legitimacy to their ranking and actually makes the January 2nd game against Michigan State even more important. If Northwestern wins, the MSU game doesn’t matter that much.
• December 31st – Ohio State @ Wisconsin, 2:00 ET, ESPN2 – This is the matchup of the week in the Big Ten as far as conference standings shake up. Of course, it will also lead to repercussions on the national stage as well. Wisconsin is super tough at the Kohl Center, but Ohio State is a team with something to prove without Evan Turner.
• January 1st – West Virginia @ Purdue, 2:30 ET, ESPN – This is the marquee matchup nationally, and a chance for Purdue to either show up or fall. It could go either way, as West Virginia is coming off of two solid wins this past week, especially the overtime victory against Seton Hall.
• January 2nd – Michigan State @ Northwestern, 6:30 ET – Like I said earlier, if Northwestern loses against Illinois, this game could be a moot point if Michigan State plays like they can. If not, this could get very interesting, as Northwestern needs to prove they can play against top teams, and see what kind of home court advantage they can have in the Big Ten. A lot is at stake for the Spartans too.
• January 2nd – Gonzaga @ Illinois, 1:00 ET, CBS – Since I have already started to play the scenario game, I am going to keep at it. Let’s say Illinois pulls off the upset against Northwestern at home, and the victory gets them back on track. This is exactly the type of game Illinois needs, and Gonzaga doesn’t want to let slip away. If we want to comparison shop the Big Ten, Wisconsin lost by 13 earlier in the season to Gonzaga, and Michigan State won by four.

Breaking It Down

• West Virginia @ Purdue – It’s on. I have mentioned this game for weeks now, but now it is finally here. This is by most measures, the biggest test for Purdue this year, and since Purdue is carrying the banner for the Big Ten, a great game to showcase the Big Ten against the Big East. Stats of the game: free throws and offensive boards. Purdue has an almost 10% lead from the charity stripe, but West Virginia sends a lot of big men to the offensive glass. If Purdue can hold WVU to their season averages without giving up the boards they will win this game.
• The Spartans were corralled, but must slay a cat. Okay, enough about MSU losing to Texas. They played a solid first half, and couldn’t stop the Longhorns from coming back to win the game. If you want to read more about the game though, check it out here on RTC: ATB: Texas the New Florida? Ok, last week is last week, and this week is well… this week. Michigan State, if they are good team, should beat teams they are expected to beat. Cinderella status notwithstanding, MSU should beat Northwestern, so they need to get it done.
• Ohio State needs to pack a winter coat this week. Ohio State, or should I say, David Lighty and Ohio State put on a show and took down Cleveland State. David Lighty lit it up for a career best 30 against the Vikings (pun intended), so nobody is wondering if he is serious about filling a void. Cleveland might be a past tournament Cinderella, but the Buckeyes might need a more balanced effort to slay the mighty Badgers at the Kohl Center. The Kohl Center holds one of the most sizable home court advantages of anywhere in the nation. OSU can hope that Wisconsin students are still on break, and won’t come back from vacation early for this game. The key word there is hope.
• Northwestern made the rankings, now can they stay? Somebody either has a great sense of humor or has been schooled in irony. Northwestern has been getting votes all year to be in the top 25 while not really playing anybody, but now that they made it, they have to be play Illinois followed by Michigan State. It is completely plausible that the Wildcats could be 0-2 in the Big Ten and definitely be out of the top 25 by the end of the week. Winning on the road at Assembly Hall in Champaign is tough, so if they can do that, their confidence should be sky high to take on the Spartans. That game, given the talent level of the two teams, should go to MSU, but don’t count the Wildcats out yet.
• Wisconsin extinguishes the Flames to get ready for the Bucks. What else can I title the only game Wisconsin played since last week, other than that? Ok, I could think of a few more, but I will leave it at that. Illinois-Chicago was a good filler game to remind the Badgers that they are now concluding the preconference slate, and a 36-point drubbing got the point across. The first week of conference for Wisconsin is what I call The Week of the States: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State. The Buckeyes game should be very interesting, as Wisconsin would love to slow it down, and OSU would love to hit the century mark. May the team that best plays its game and doesn’t allow the other team to do the same will win.
• Illinois likes a consistent win-loss pattern this year. Lucky for Illinois, so far each time they have won four games, only to follow it up with two losses. Why lucky you ask? In case you weren’t following the embarrassing loss to Mizzou, but that made it two losses in a row. Surely Illinois will follow it up with four wins a row. To pull it off though, they need to take down one Cat and then one Dog. They need to bring in Northwestern and Gonzaga, and beat them both. If they can do that, their four-game win streak gets easier with Iowa at home, and then Indiana on the road.
• Minnesota will be looking for wins 6 and 7 before Purdue. Not much to report on Minnesota since they haven’t played in a week, but I am hoping the break did them well because the easy schedule will be coming to an end very soon, and they will have to prove where they stack up in the Big Ten. I expect them to take down Penn State and Iowa, but it isn’t preposterous that they could lose the next three in Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan State.
• It’s make or break time for the Michigan Wolverines. Such high hopes for Michigan this year, but as of yet, very little has materialized. Two unpredictable teams will meet up this New Year’s Eve in Michigan and Indiana. If IU brings the team that lost to Loyola, it’s an easy Michigan win. If they bring the team that knocked off Pittsburgh, the Wolverines will be clawing their way through a tough one (yes, another pun for those keeping track). After Indiana, maybe the basketball team can make up for the frustration of the football team when they bring Ohio State to town.
• Penn State takes a break from basketball. Penn State cruised against American, but they will be in trouble against Minnesota on the road, especially having not played in eight days, and then the tough road doesn’t stop. They will have Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois. They could be 0-4 before battling it out for the bottom of the Big Ten against Iowa. Hopefully it won’t be the case, but stranger things have happened.
• Indiana without Maurice Creek, what team will emerge? Indiana has had a rollercoaster year thus far, some exciting, some frustrating, all unexpected. The one steady positive variable for the Hoosiers this season has been the superstar freshman Creek, but now Indiana will be without him for the rest of the year, as he fractured his knee against Bryant during a rout, and will have season ending knee surgery about the time you read this. What will happen to Indiana without Creek’s 17 PPG and emerging leadership presence?
• Iowa is in for a long month. Iowa decided to take an 8-game break in between their game against South Carolina State and Purdue, mainly as a way for it to really soak in that they would be kicking off conference play against Purdue. I don’t see a winnable game in much of January until they play Indiana, so they did an ingenious scheduling move to build confidence mid-conference: they scheduled a game against Tennessee State on the 12th of January. The only problem is that move could backfire, as TSU only lost to Northwestern by 7 and Vanderbilt by 13. I wish I had better news for the Hawkeyes.

Here’s this week’s Top 25, and you might be surprised as a new #1 takes over even though the top six all won last week.  Analysis after the jump…

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Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Standings

1. Purdue       10-0
2. Michigan State      9-2
3. Ohio State      9-2
4. Wisconsin       8-2
5. Northwestern      9-1
6. Illinois       8-3
7. Minnesota     8-3
8. Penn State     8-4
9. Michigan      5-5
10. Indiana       5-5
11. Iowa             4-7

Three Things Last Week

• Evan Turner looks like he might be back early – a full four weeks ahead of schedule, which will help Ohio State as well as the Big Ten.
• The Big Ten has speculated on adding another team to its ranks, adding further confusion as to how it will be able to call itself the Big Ten. Apparently if you spell out Ten you can add as many teams to the conference as you want.
• Three Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #4 Purdue, #9 Michigan State, and #17 Ohio State.

Top Storyline

The Big 10 is busy off the court.

• Bobby Knight singles out John Calipari to show the dismal state of the NCAA when it comes to academics.
• Minnesota’s Royce White decides to give it up and leaves Minnesota and college basketball after his mounting legal troubles caused him, his family, and the school undue stress.
• Not to be outdone, Iowa’s Anthony Tucker drops 17 on Drake, gets drunk in public, and is then suspended indefinitely by Iowa.

Coming Up

• December 22^nd – Michigan State @ Texas, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2 – As far as I am concerned, this is the biggest matchup for a Big Ten team this year. One could argue that the MSU vs. UNC game earlier in the season was bigger, but after Texas’ thrashing of UNC the other day, I would say that this is a biggest test for Tom Izzo and company. They are going to have to come to play down in Austin if they want to stay in this one.
• December 23^rd – Illinois @ Missouri, 9:30 ET, ESPN2  – This is a classic Bi-State rivalry, as the 29^th Annual Busch Braggin’ Rights game happens in St. Louis at the Scottrade Center. This game could be close, or it could be a blowout. If you play the who played who and what happened game, you will find that there could be 17 points separating these two teams, with Illinois having the advantage. That’s the difference in what happened when both teams played Vanderbilt earlier in the year. The other stat that could prove interesting is 6-0. That’s Missouri’s record at home this year. Too bad this game is being played in neutral territory. Watch the game to see if the Vanderbilt proves as an accurate guide. 

Breaking It Down

• Purdue first to Ten in the Big Ten. Robbie Hummel had a 19/9 game and Purdue’s top three scorers were good for 47 of the 69 points that the Boilermakers put on the board against Ball State. Purdue will blow out both SIUE and Iowa, but I can’t wait to see what they do against West Virginia in West Lafayette. To move up in the rankings, though, they will need some help from Michigan State against Texas or Louisville to knock off Kentucky.
• Michigan State has one more blowout before Texas. Admittedly, I had never heard of IPFW and Oakland, but they definitely found out how dominant MSU can be, even on off nights. MSU hasn’t lost to Texas in three years, and hopefully they can make it four. Time will only tell how both of their inside games match up.
• Ohio State could be saved by the Christmas bell. The Buckeyes have done an admirable job in Evan Turner’s absence, but if his recovery is going to be as speedy as he announced this week, they won’t have to keep it up for much longer. They just have to get past Wisconsin and Michigan on the road, and Indiana at home before Turner is back. If they can do it, it’s anyone’s game in the Big Ten.
• Northwestern is the best basketball nerd school in the nation. Two great things about last weekend’s Stanford game for the Wildcats. First, they beat probably the only school that can compete with them on the hardwood and in the classroom. The second is that John Shurna is back. He had a 22/8 game against Stanford, so I hope I don’t jinx him. Stanford actually shot better from the field and from 3-pt territory, but the Wildcats dominated from the free throw line. Northwestern is going to have to find a bench though, as five points from the reserves isn’t going to cut it in the Big Ten.
• Wisconsin gives opponents a nice Madison Tour, they might not come back. It’s no secret that Wisconsin does ok in the Kohl Center, but their game against Cal Poly gave the southern California team a Wisconsin blizzard. The Badgers were up by 52 points at one time in this game, and dominated in every area. That type of performance will be repeated in the next two games, but after that OSU will be sure to give Wisconsin a run for its money.
• Illinois gets cocky, loses to Georgia. Illinois had a good run, and maybe this game is just a hiccup on its way to another four-game win streak. Actually, if you look at earlier in the season, they reeled off four straight, only to lose two straight followed by another four wins. Let’s hope they don’t need two losses to learn their lesson. Let’s see if Demetri McCamey can repeat his 21/5 performance against Mizzou.
• Will Minnesota’s distractions end anytime soon? I already mentioned what hopes to be end of the Royce White era, but is this theme going to repeat itself throughout the year, or will the Gophers make all of their news on the court for the rest of the year? The good news is that Minnesota is torching outmatched opponents on the court, but once conference starts, it could be a different story. Blake Hoffarber set a school record by hitting eight shots from long range in their last game, so that is definitely a bright spot when someone goes off for 26 points after only averaging 10.5 on the year. Look for another three wins for Minnesota before colliding with Purdue on January 5^th.
• Michigan doesn’t get embarrassed by Kansas. Ok, so the good news is that Michigan managed to stay in the game against Kansas. The bad news is that they let a great opportunity to beat Kansas slip away. My main question with Michigan is when will they figure out that they aren’t a very good three-point shooting team? They shot an ice cold 17.9% against the Jayhawks, and on 28 attempts nonetheless. They are now 28.4% on the year on 257 attempts. Kansas in contrast is shooting 43% from long range. Michigan needs to take it to the basket and leave the threes for someone else.
• Penn State hits the Century Mark. Who knew that the Nittany Lions hadn’t hit 100 in a game since a game against Virginia Military Institute three years ago. Penn State was lights out against Gardner-Webb, led by Talor Battle’s 21. Penn State most remarkably shot 87.5% from the free throw line, which I can’t say I have seen much this year in the Big Ten. The bad news is that Penn State has eight days off before traveling up to Minnesota to take on the Gophers.
• Indiana has definitely found the guy to build the program around. Maurice Creek is his name, and lighting it up from three and leading the team last game in rebounds with seven is his game. He followed up his 31-point performance against Kentucky with 29 against North Carolina Central. Want to be amazed by more stats from Creek? Ok, so he is shooting 44.3% from three, 53.3% from two (as a guard), and a respectable 4.1 boards per game. IU should get a couple more wins before battling Michigan at Assembly Hall for a New Year’s Eve special.
• Iowa is not the worst in state, just the Big Ten. Iowa just got worse after suspending their second leading scorer in Anthony Tucker after beating Drake by four. Guess December just isn’t Anthony’s month, as he pulled the same move last year as well. The bad news for Iowa is that they will have to venture outside the state, and the competition is much better. It will be a long year for the Hawkeyes.

Welcome back!  Another weekend means another edition of everyone’s favorite college basketball live blog.  Assuming they all actually happen (there was, like, a huge snowstorm, you see), there are actually some pretty darn good games happening today (Michigan at Kansas, anyone?  Maybe a little Xavier at Butler?), and since we know you’ll be watching, and we know we’ll be watching…why not watch with us?  We’ll be commenting all day, but we want to know what your thoughts are on the games as they’re being played.  So keep checking this space and hitting that refresh button, and let’s have your comments as well.  It’ll start at noon and go all day long, so I suggest you grab some hot chocolate (or your beverage of choice), turn on your favorite game, and join us.  Keep checking back every few minutes!

12:03 pm: So here we go.  Starting off with Michigan at Kansas on ESPN as our principle (and as of right now, only noteworthy) game.  This is a good but perplexing Michigan team.  Their four losses are Marquette, Alabama, Boston College, and at Utah.  Michigan was a tournament team last year and returned those two stars in Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, which would make me think they should have at least won a couple of those.  BC is tough, but Michigan has to defend the home floor against a team like that if they want to be taken seriously.  Quite a tall order they’ve got today.  As I type this, Michigan’s last three shots have been threes, none of which went down.  Meanwhile, Kansas has been getting the ball inside every trip down.

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