Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Tonight we’ll see two match-ups that may be previews to conference championship games in the ACC and the WCC. All four teams are in the RTC Top 25 and both games should be fantastic. Let’s take a look at how things break down.

Senior forward Mike Scott takes his efficient offensive skills into Cameron Indoor for UVA's toughest test of the season (The Sabre)

#19 Virginia at #8 Duke – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• Virginia has only lost one time this season and is looking for its 13th consecutive win. Playing at Duke will be UVA’s toughest test of the season. The Cavaliers play at a sloth’s pace. While their offense is nothing more than average, their defense has been stellar. They are holding teams to 27% from beyond the arc and are in the top 10 in the country in defensive rebounding. Although offense is not the Cavaliers’ strong suit, 6’8″ forward Mike Scott is one of the most effective scorers and rebounders in the country. Considering how slowly Virginia plays, Scott should be considered one of the top big men in the country. Keep a close eye on how he matches up with Duke’s Mason Plumlee. It should be a great battle between two future NBA forwards.
• Duke still possesses one of the top offenses in the country. The Blue Devils shoot an outstanding 41.7% from downtown. Much like Virginia, Duke knows how to get to the line. The free throw battle in this game will be extremely important. In both of Duke’s losses, two key statistics emerged. They did not get to the line and their opponent shot the lights out. On the season, the Dukies have a free throw rate of 51.5%, which is good for third in the nation. In losses to Ohio State and Temple, Duke had a free throw rate of 25% and 27%, respectively. Virginia does not put teams on the line, so it will be interesting to see how the free throw situation plays out.
• While it appears that this game will come down to Duke’s offense versus Virginia’s defense, the UVA offense actually may hold the key to the win. In Duke’s two losses, OSU and Temple both had an eFG of over 60%. Look to see if Virginia’s Sammy Zeglinski can hit his threes. Zeglinski is the Cavaliers’ top three-point shooter, hitting 31-of-74 attempts (41.9%). Also, keep an eye on Duke’s offensive rebounding. The Cavaliers’ defense will contest Duke’s three-point shots and the Blue Devils are a poor offensive rebounding team. If Mike Krzyzewski’s squad goes one-and-done too many times, the Cavaliers could pull the upset at Cameron Indoor. However, it may be too much to expect for the Virginia offense to win in such a tough environment.

#16 Gonzaga at #25 St. Mary’s – 11:00 PM EST on ESPNU HD (****)

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I can’t help but be deliriously and feverishly excited about the beginning of intraconference play, but before we get down to brass tacks, there are a few things that we should probably be talking about before we settle up the conference pecking order. Let’s go over a few suggested topics of conversation before actual basketball begins.

1. Virginia is for real. The Cavaliers’ national ranking is totally deserved and barring injuries or collapse, this team is poised to make some noise in March. Mike Scott is the flavor of the week amongst the college basketball stat-erati because, well he is kind of killing it, but Virginia’s slow pace means that he’s not getting enough credit for it. The Cavaliers are certainly capable of taking down Duke or North Carolina and the team’s consistency is something that every other team in the conference envies.

Mike Scott Is Really Good

2. Scheduling is a double-edged sword. Both Maryland and North Carolina State have the talent to make the NCAA Tournament, but both also have some scheduling issues that might get in the way of these aspirations. Maryland has a daunting conference schedule that includes two shots apiece at Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke, as well as a non-conference tilt with Temple. That gives the Terrapins plenty of chances to register signature wins, but it also means that there are seven games on the schedule that are more likely to be losses than not. Conversely, the NC State Wolfpack has two games apiece against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Mark Gottfried’s team is likely to rack up plenty of wins, but they have far less opportunities to make an impression with a certain tournament selection committee.

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Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

It’s a relatively light night of hoops but two interesting games in the South should have your attention this evening.

Texas A&M at #5 Baylor – 7:00 PM EST on ESPNU (***)

• The Baylor Bears keep winning as they head into a conference showdown with in-state rival Texas A&M tonight. This figures to be a good match-up for Baylor although it needs to ensure it controls the pace. Texas A&M gets 65.2% of its points from two-point range (third in the nation) but interior defense happens to be Baylor’s biggest strength. The Bears allow only 39.3% shooting from inside the arc with Perry Jones III and company patrolling the paint. Defensively, look for Scott Drew’s team to try to pick up the pace and pressure Texas A&M’s guards. The Bears force a turnover 24.6% of the time although both teams don’t handle the ball particularly well.
• Texas A&M is not comfortable playing at a faster pace but therein lies the dilemma. The Aggies don’t run efficient enough half court offense to succeed in a slower-paced game, especially against the strong Baylor defense. Billy Kennedy’s team should take a page out of Louisville’s playbook against Kentucky. A&M should pressure Baylor and try to get turnovers at certain times, but not throughout the entire game. Texas A&M may actually hurt itself while trying to force Baylor into turnovers, something that will speed up the game where the Bears’ superior athletes can take over. Texas A&M has to establish Ray Turner and David Loubeau inside while Khris Middleton uses his versatility to stretch Baylor’s defense, opening up seams. Getting Elston Turner going from long range would also be advantageous for A&M, a team that doesn’t rely much at all on the trifecta. Turner had 20 points on 3-5 shooting from deep in a loss against Florida last month.
• For Texas A&M to have a chance on the road, it must rebound, rebound, and rebound some more in addition to controlling pace. If the Aggies don’t score inside off second chance opportunities or in transition, Baylor will win this game easily. Keep an eye on Baylor’s perimeter shooting. Texas A&M ranks #6 in three-point defense and will look to shut down Brady Heslip and Pierre Jackson. Even if the Aggies are successful in that regard, they need to do a whole lot more to pull the upset.

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After a weekend of largely uneventful blowouts, lowlighted by the Ivy League getting the best of the ACC in an impromptu and unofficial interconference challenge that saw Harvard smash Boston College, Yale come within one point of defeating Wake Forest, and Miami losing to Princeton in triple overtime, the teams of the ACC face their final non-conference tune-ups before the beginning of league play. It has been an odd time for the conference and the balance of power is very much in the air. While North Carolina and Duke appear to still be the class of the conference and Boston College looks to be the joke of the conference, the other nine teams have yet to stake out clear identities or even a presumptive pecking order. With ACC play on the near horizon, teams are running out of opportunities to make statements in inter-conference play.

A Defensive Showdown

• Virginia at LSU at 7:00 PM on ESPN3.com

The Cavaliers are one team that has done a pretty good job in staking out an identity in the ACC. They are the clear third best team in the league, featuring a tenacious, unyielding defense and a probable All-ACC player in Mike Scott. Ironically, when Virginia takes its trip down to the bayou to take on the Tigers, they will be facing one of the most hard-to-pin-down teams in the nation. LSU’s early losses to Coastal Carolina, Northwestern, and the University of Southern Alabama were discouraging losses, but the fact remains that these Tigers have rebounded and haven’t lost a game since November. LSU has been getting it done on defense and despite the team’s youth and utter rawness on offense they have managed some impressive wins including a win over a very good Marquette team. Virginia is probably the better team and their tough defense figures to make life far too difficult for an LSU team that struggles to score against mediocre defenses. Still, Virginia is playing on the road, and Lousiana State certainly has enough talent to pull off an upset making this a game that should prove to be fairly intriguing.

The Last Likely Win For Boston College

• Rhode Island at Boston College at 1:00 PM on ESPN3.com

Boston College is going to have a hard time winning games in the ACC. Looking at Boston College’s conference schedule, it is hard to pick out games where the Eagles could be called the favorites, or failing that, even a reasonable pick. Outside of a home game against Wake Forest, the spring of 2012 could be a very tough time for fans in Chestnut Hill. It’s a bleak prospect, so hopefully this game will offer some succor to the Eagles’ fans. Rhode Island is having an equally disastrous season as BC, and with the game being played at home, I don’t think it would be crazy to call the Eagles the favorites. That’s something worth savoring, since this might be the last time this season that I can say that.

For Fans Only

• UNC Greensboro at Miami at 9:00 PM on ESPN3.com
• Wofford at Wake Forest at 7:00 PM on ESPN3.com

Miami’s tough loss against Princeton on Friday seems like bad news for UNC Greensboro. The Hurricanes will be out to prove that the loss was a fluke and will be eager to crush their over-matched Southern Conference foe. If you change the home team to “Wake Forest”, the previous result to “a narrow win against Yale”, and the Southern Conference opponent to Wofford, you will likely have a creeping feeling of déjà vu.

There was only one game on last night and it wasn’t exactly thrilling or unexpected as Virginia, led by the machine-like Mike Scott, destroyed the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks. The win is only the latest in a campaign that has the Cavaliers ranked in both national polls and off to their best start in a decade. While soundly beating the teams that you should beat doesn’t impress most people, it’s what Tony Bennett‘s crew has done after bouncing back from the tough loss to TCU early in the season.

Mike Scott Has Been A Consistent Star For Virginia

The Duel and the Debut

• Albany at Maryland at 8pm

In the Albany Great Danes, the Terrapins should see more than a bit of themselves. Like Maryland, Albany is a mediocre team defensively, but a  much better offensive team powered by a star scoring wing who has a real talent at getting to the free throw line. Terrell Stoglin averages 21.5 PPG while drawing an incredible 7.5 fouls per forty minutes. For the Great Danes, Gerardo Suero averages 21.5 PPG and draws an even more stunning 8.4 fouls per forty minutes. Suero is bigger and gets more rebounds than than the smaller Stoglin, but he also turns the ball over much more. In any case, both players are scoring dynamos with a talent for drawing contact and it should be a joy to see them try to one-up each other. More important, perhaps, is that this game will feature the debut of Alex Len, the promising freshman big man who was serving an NCAA mandated suspension related to his amateur status and time playing with a professional team in Ukraine. While Len will come off the bench, his play should at least give the Terrapin faithful some glimpses of what the future might hold.

Please accept my sincerest apologies for the absent Morning Five yesterday. I hope a double-dose of links will help ease the pain.

1. Run The Floor: In case you can’t tell, I’m a big fan of defensive charting. Michael Rogner has charted the defensive work of Bernard James, John Henson, Josh Smith and Anthony Davis. Putting on your ACC goggles, you can also check his piece over at Tomahawk Nation that ignores the non-Seminole players. The findings are very interesting. Basically, without Chris Singleton, the Seminole defense is elite with James in the game and above average with him on the bench. With James on the court, Leonard Hamilton’s squad allows only 0.75 points per possession, but with him on the bench it allows 0.91 points per possession. That’s a gigantic difference. For comparison’s sake, Henson “only” affects North Carolina’s defense by 0.11 points per possession.
2. Durham Herald-Sun: James Michael McAdoo is off to a relatively slow start for North Carolina this season, and Roy Williams thinks it’s his lack of aggression to blame. Against UNCG, “Williams turned to the bench and said that if the 6’9″ freshman didn’t dunk the ball next time, everyone on the team would run sprints while he sat McAdoo on a lawn chair and served him lemonade.” McAdoo’s talent is undeniable, but his transition to the college level has been far from smooth.
3. Washington Post: Coaching legend Larry Brown made another short stop (zing) to visit his former player, Mark Turgeon, at Maryland’s basketball practice recently. Despite playing for North Carolina, Brown called Maryland a “special place” with a “special coach.” The only coach in history to win an NCAA championship (1988) and an NBA championship (2004) also gave some advice to Turgeon.
   


4. Basketball Prospectus: Drew Cannon evaluated Kendall Marshall as the 70th best basketball player in the country during the offseason, which was substantially below where pretty much everyone else places the unique North Carolina point guard. But Cannon realized that “[he] was evaluating players in terms of ‘how many wins would this player add to a randomly assembled team of college players?’ while everyone else was evaluating players in terms of ‘how many wins will this player add to his team?'” It’s an important distinction to make, and a valuable one. I still think he had Marshall a little undervalued (and most have him overvalued), but it certainly provides some food for thought (also, don’t be surprised to see some more content this week in a similar vein).
5. CollegeHoops.net: It’s probably not surprising that three ACC teams are in the Top 25 this week. What may be surprising is which three teams made the cut. Instead of Florida State, Virginia‘s hot start earned the Cavaliers the conference’s third spot in the AP and Coaches polls. This raises the question of which team is actually better. Florida State has played a tougher schedule, and definitely has the athletic advantage on defense. But Virginia’s offensive and defensive numbers are a little better at the moment. This debate will definitely be something to keep an eye on moving forward. The second half of today’s links is after the jump.
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Here’s a look at the power rankings that Drew and I have compiled after the sixth week of Pac-12 games. Here we go!

1. Stanford, 9-1: Stanford took care of business in their only game of the week, a 20-point drubbing of a mediocre San Diego club. The Cardinal defense has been outstanding in these types of game so far this season, as they have not given up more than 59 points to a non-power conference team. They have two more chances to keep that streak alive before Pac-12 play begins. Up Next: 12.19 vs. Bethune-Cookman

Dwight Powell can smell other player's arms AND average 3.6 RPG. (credit: Richard Drew)

2. California, 9-2: Across the bay we have our number two team, who also went 1-0 this week with a 20-point win over a mediocre team. The Golden Bears defeated Weber State 77-57, making them the first Pac-12 team to reach the nine-win plateau. While the Wildcats as a whole are mediocre, they are home to the nation’s leading scorer, Damian Lillard. The Bears held Lillard to 14 points, 11.4 under his season average. Up Next: 12.19 vs. UC Santa Barbara

3. Oregon State, 9-2: On paper, Oregon State’s 289-193 outscoring of their three low-major opponents this week looked great, but I didn’t like most of what I saw, especially against Portland State on Sunday. On offense, the Beavers looked great. They were shooting the ball with ease, passing with great efficiently, and flying high on dunks. But those plays led to too much celebrating and not enough getting back, making the Beavs look slow against the already-quick Viking guards. If they do this in Pac-12 play, opponents will be scoring in the 7os and 80s instead of the 60s, leading to more losses and making their chances of an NCAA Tournament bid even smaller. Up Next: 12.21 @ Chicago State

4. Arizona, 7-4: The Wildcats hold steady after dropping a 71-60 decision to Gonzaga in Seattle. Most will look at Arizona’s four losses and think they are a middle-of-the-pack team, but considering those four have come against Mississippi State, San Diego State, Florida, and Gonzaga, they don’t seem that bad at all. Group that in with the growing pains coach Sean Miller has had to endure so far, I really like UA at fourth. Up Next: 12.20 vs. Oakland

5. Oregon, 6-3: The Ducks opened up the week with an ugly nine-point win over Portland State, but the real challenge was to come six days later when Virginia came calling. Oregon was able to stay with the Cavaliers for 30 minutes, but Virginia used a stifling defense and hot shooting down the stretch to pull away for a 13-point win. Virginia forward Mike Scott led all scorers with 17 points. Up Next: 12.20 vs. North Carolina Central

6. Washington State, 7-4: The Cougars only game of the week was a less-than-stellar win over DII Western Oregon, but they trade places with rival Washington anyway. The Cougars have now won five in a row going into the Cougar Hardwood Classic. Up Next: 12.22 vs. Pepperdine in Seattle Read the rest of this entry »

Arizona did meet Gonzaga earlier today in the Battle in Seattle, but the biggest game of the week takes place tomorrow at Matthew Knight Arena. Oregon came into the season with high expectations for their backcourt, led by highly touted freshmen Bruce Barron and Jabari Brown. However, those two left the program in late-November, leaving Garrett Sim and Johnathan Loyd to pick up the minutes and production. They have done a solid job (13 and 6.8 PPG, respectively), but the biggest boost has come from Minnesota transfer Devoe Joseph. Joseph had to sit for Oregon’s first six games since he transferred mid-way through last season, but in his previous two appearances he’s averaged 15.5 PPG. Joseph has combo-guard ability and can be the difference between a top six finish in the Pac-12. At small forward it has been all about E.J. Singler.  The junior is averaging 13 PPG and quite possibly has the purest stroke on the team, both behind the arc and at the charity stripe.

Senior forward Mike Scott will draw the majority of the attention from Oregon's defense. Scott is averaging 15.3 PPG and 9.1 RPG. (credit: The Sabre)

Virginia will bring their slow-down, methodical offense into Eugene. Mike Scott leads the Hoos in points, while sophomore guard Joe Harris is also producing great numbers. But those were the guys that were SUPPOSED to produce. One of the main reasons that Virginia is off to such a great start is because of Assane Sene and Jontel Evans. Sene, the 7’0” senior center, has got the job done on the boards by averaging 4 RPG. Evans’ best game came in their December 6th meeting with George Mason, where Jontel logged 36 minutes, 11 points, and three assists. Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Patton is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference. You can follow him on Twitter @rise_and_fire.

Reader’s Take

Top Storylines

• Wake Forest’s Dynamic Duo: The Demon Deacons may not be the prettiest team to watch, but CJ Harris and Travis McKie are lighting up the box score. We knew (even if I, in a gaffe of all gaffes, left him off my All-Freshman team last year for Ryan Harrow) Mckie was going to be one of the ACC’s top players this year, but Harris has been a very pleasant surprise. The pair are efficiently combining for nearly 57% of Wake Forest’s points through the first 10 games of the year. Harris has already made as many threes as he made all last season on 18 less attempts, and he’s significantly more effective inside the arc. It remains to be seen how Harris will adapt to the defenses of ACC play, but so far he has to be leading the “surprise of the year” category.
• Duke’s Post Presence: That’s right: after two solid years of berating the Plumlees as overrated and generally poor basketball players, it’s time to give credit where it’s due. Mason Plumlee has developed into a very good big man. No, he can’t make a free throw to save his life, but he’s much better offensively everywhere except the boards than he’s been the last few years. He developed a couple of solid post moves, stopped turning the ball over as much and learned to hold his ground on defense. If he can either learn to crash the offensive glass or hit 60% of his free throws, I’m confident in saying he’ll be one of the top three or four bigs in the ACC this season.
• That’s right, the ACC Digital Network launched this season. Check out JR Reid break down North Carolina‘s softness and the conference power rankings. So far the coverage is fairly limited, but as it expands this could become one of the better sources of information for ACC fans.

Power Rankings

1. North Carolina (8-2) stays atop the rankings with a hard-fought win over Long Beach State, which better get rewarded by the Selection Committee in March for playing such a tough non-conference schedule. The Tar Heels dominated on the inside with John Henson and Harrison Barnes leading the scoring, but it is worth noting that this is  another game where four Tar Heel starters played more than 30 minutes. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, as expected Charleston Southern seized on its one advantage and managed to force Florida State into 21 turnovers. Of course, it didn’t matter: The Seminoles locked down and held its Monday night opponent to 29.9% from the field while shooting 48.4% on its end. It was a 15-point victory, but it felt like the margin was bigger considering how quickly Florida State jumped to a big lead.

The Seminoles Had Little Problem Blasting Charleston Southern Last Night

Tonight, we have a couple of nice gut-check games and then the equivalent of an angry child getting their aggression out by punching a pillow a bunch of times.

The Main Event

• Memphis at Miami at 9:00 PM on ESPN2

Even without Reggie Johnson, Miami has been pretty good this year. A loss to Purdue and an overtime road loss to Mississippi are understandable, but they are also blown chances at really putting the Hurricanes on the national map. With a faltering Memphis team coming to Coral Gables, the team has a good chance at a nice signature win. Without a strong front court presence, Miami has struggled to rebound effectively, but Memphis has been fairly terrible at rebounding so far this season too,  giving the Hurricanes an opening. In terms of weaknesses, Miami’s mediocre perimeter defense will have to hold strong against a Tigers team that has shot 44.2% from beyond the arc. The game may come down to pace as Miami tries to slow it down against Josh Pastner’s run-happy team. In any case, this should be a pretty entertaining game this evening.

The Undercard

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