According to KenPom’s average efficiency rankings, the MAC is currently the 12th-best conference in college basketball, behind the Mountain West and Missouri Valley and just ahead of the Ivy League and Big West. But unlike most other mid-major conferences in its class – Harvard in the Ivy; Wichita State in the MVC; Green Bay in the Horizon – there’s no clear-cut favorite, or even clear pecking order in the MAC; seven of its top eight teams are ranked within 57 spots of each other. As conference play tips off this weekend, let’s take our best shot at separating true East and West Division contenders from those squads likely to fade in the muddled MAC pack. Remember, the top two seeds in this league receive a triple-bye in the MAC Tournament.

Teams to Believe In: MAC East

Justin Moss and the Buffalo Bulls should compete for a MAC East crown. (Chad Cooper, The Spectrum)

• Buffalo. Buffalo lost three seniors from last season’s 19-10 unit, including MAC Player of the Year Javon McCrea, yet – at 8-3 – looks to be legitimate. The Bulls are currently the conference’s highest-ranked unit in both KenPom and Sagarin (71st and 49th, respectively) with its three losses all coming on the road to respectable opponents – including Kentucky and Wisconsin, of which it led both at halftime. Bobby Hurley’s defense is much-improved from an efficiency standpoint (allowing well under a point per possession), and big man Justin Moss has almost immediately morphed into a poor man’s (or even a middle-class man’s) McCrea, averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds per contest. Likewise, guard Lamonte Bearden has emerged as one of the conference’s top freshmen (9.4 PPG, 4.0 APG). And while Jarryn Skeete’s scorching-hot three-point shooting (50% 3FG) may come back to earth a bit (the guard has missed the last two games with an injured ankle), the fact that preseason all-MAC East forward Will Regan has considerably underperformed to this point makes offensive improvement seem more likely than regression.

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Evan Jacoby is an RTC columnist. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s slate of games.

After another impressive road victory, it’s time to get Ohio University on the national radar. The Bobcats of the MAC improved to 10-1 with Tuesday’s night’s impressive win over Northern Iowa, another one-loss team coming into tonight’s game. Ohio entered the contest as six-point underdogs and left with a 17-point victory. They have now won road contests over Oakland, Marshall, and UNI, and they had a five-point lead at Louisville with under three minutes to play before poor execution down the stretch lead to a late loss. That near-upset remains the Bobcats’ only loss of the season. Ohio has passed all of its major non-conference tests with flying colors, and they certainly look the part of an NCAA Tournament team. Barring a stunning loss in one of their next three home games against weaker opponents, star point guard D.J. Cooper and his team will head into MAC conference play as the league favorite and with a good resume worthy of at-large bid consideration.

DJ Cooper and Ohio Are 10-1 and Nearly Got By Louisville (AP)

Ohio is led by the junior guard Cooper who simply does it all. The 5’11”, 165-pounder doesn’t have the physical make-up of a high major player, but he’s been as productive as any guard in the country. His playmaking skills on both ends of the floor have been remarkable. Cooper led the entire country in total steals as a freshman, not to mention finishing the season with a 13/5/6 APG average that season. As a sophomore, Cooper accumulated the second-most assists in the nation, dishing out 7.5 per game. He’s back at the task this year, contributing across the board with 14.6 points, 6.4 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.5 steals per game. His one struggle is shooting the ball from deep, where he’s made just 30% of his career three-point shots despite attempting over five per game. If he were ever to cut down on his volume of deep shots, then we’d be looking at an even more dangerous player.

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