Part of the Learning Curve for Pastner

Last week Pastner was in Minneapolis on a recruiting trip when he became aware that Golden Gopher forward/headache Trevor Mbakwe was playing in a summer pro-am nearby.  Memphis is recruiting Mbakwe after he was forced to sit out all of 2009-10 at Minnesota due to an assault charge he is facing from his freshman season at Miami-Dade CC, so Pastner went to the gym to watch him play.  Since Mbakwe is still officially on scholarship at Minnesota (he is asking for a release) and the pro-am was an uncertified event, Pastner was in violation of NCAA rules in watching him perform.  In a story from the Pioneer Press on Wednesday, Tubby Smith became aware of this violation, and, still hoping to get Mbakwe to play for him next year, threw young Pastner (who has a reputation for aggresive recruiting)  under the bus. 

“I think they probably misunderstood what the rules were,” Smith said Tuesday. “It might have been miscommunication or something. I don’t know.”

Memphis responded today that the athletic department has already contacted Conference USA and the NCAA about the violation, and that Pastner was completely guiltless in this matter.  The Tiger storyline is that a compliance officer in the UM athletic department approved Pastner’s appearance at the event, and that she had misinterpreted the rules in this case.  Nicole Green was named by Memphis as the party at fault, and color us skeptical, but if a person with several years of experience in compliance makes that kind of mistake, then she is either: a) incompetent, or b) the fall gal.  Either way, Memphis and Josh Pastner probably should look into shoring up that compliance department because the Tigers cannot afford to lose out on talents like Mbakwe over silly violations like this. 

Where will Davis land?

All of this begs the question as to how someone as talented as Davis could go relatively unnoticed in the over-saturated recruiting landscape. The only comparison player we could think of who rocketed up this quickly this late was Tracy McGrady who went from a relative unknown coming into the summer before his senior year to the top recruit in his class by the time he graduated a little over a decade ago, but that was pre-YouTube and even pre-Google (yes, there was a world before Google). Part of the reason that Davis has shot up the rankings is because of a ridiculous growth spurt during his sophomore and junior years (6-7 inches in 18 months according to Evan Daniels). Still some Illinois recruiting gurus [Ed. Note: We are imagining a Hoop Dreams-like TV segment here.] only had him as the #9 player in the state of Illinois after the high school season ended just a few months ago. There has been some speculation amongst Illinois high school basketball fans that Davis may have been ranked so low coming into the summer because he played in a weak Chicago Public League division that most of the recruiting gurus paid little attention to and until this summer he had skipped the AAU summer circuit. All of this seems perfectly reasonable although somewhat surprising so we are left to wonder just how good Davis actually is. For that we turned to Jeff Goodman of Fox Sports and Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog, who have seen Davis in person and spoken with Davis and people close to him.

Goodman
“It is shocking to see a player these days fly under the radar until this late in the recruiting game. I love this kid and the reason why I would put him at number one is because I don’t see many–if any–weaknesses in his game. He has size and versatility. He may not be as offensively skilled as Kevin Durant, but has a more complete game with his ability to impact on the defensive end. He can step out and make shots, puts it on the floor, passes it well and can score in the post. Honestly, I am not sure there is any fair comparison – maybe Rasheed Wallace back in the day when he played hard.”

Zagoria
On the late recruitment comparison to McGrady: “Good comparison” [with respect to their late appearance on recruiting radars], but he wasn’t willing to go that Davis would turn out to be the caliber player that McGrady was. He felt that Kyrie Irving would be a better, more modern comparison as Irving was a relative unknown two years ago and now is considered one of the best players to ever come out of New Jersey.

Recruiting: Along with the three schools already mentioned, Zagoria knows “that Roy Williams and UConn coaches are watching [Davis].” As for the possibility that Kentucky might sign him along with Gilchrist and Marquis Teague, it “wouldn’t shock him and could become part of one of the greatest recruiting classes ever.”

Comparison: He can see the Kevin Durant comparison, but Davis isn’t as “smooth or polished” as Durant was. Instead he cited Antonio McDyess (with ACLs) as a good comparison player, but Davis “will need to fill out”.

We don’t want to put too much praise on this rising high school senior, but his size, frame, and skill set remind me of another player who played in Chicago his senior year almost a decade and a half ago: Kevin Garnett. We aren’t saying that Davis will ever achieve the success that Garnett has had, but from what we have seen (in limited highlight clips) it looks like he has the tools to be a similar player although we cannot say anything about his intensity although we doubt many high school players can match the nightly insanity of KG. Below we have a video showing off a little of the skill set that we are talking about with a little of the attitude that we have been wondering about.

One other thing to watch for is the influence of Tai Streets, the CEO of Mean Streets (yes, AAU basketball is a big business). Some of you may remember Streets from his time at Michigan where he was a star receiver on the 1997 National Championship football team, but he also played sparingly as a freshman on the basketball team before committing full-time to football (a wise choice as he ended up getting drafted in the NFL where he spent several years playing for the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions). Given the likely influence of Streets we wouldn’t be surprised to see Davis at least make a visit to Ann Arbor (or be less inclined to join the Buckeyes).

One of my favorite parts of the college basketball season is watching players make the leap to stardom, from the game notes to the headline, from role player to All-America candidate. Every season players spring up in November and December with performances that make you wonder if they’ve finally harnessed all of that talent and are prepared to take off to unforeseen heights, a recent example being Wes Johnson’s virtuoso two-game clinic at MSG against California and North Carolina. It was Jacob Pullen emerging as a top scorer in the loaded Big 12. It was Austin Freeman pouring in 33 in a huge comeback win over Connecticut. It was Darington Hobson leading the Mountain West champs team in scoring, rebounds and assists or Jordan Crawford scoring 87 points in three NCAA Tournament games. Who will those bust-out performers be next season? Here are my most likely candidates:

Marcus Morris, F, Kansas- On a team with Cole Aldrich, Sherron Collins and Xavier Henry, any Kansas fan will tell you that during more than one stretch in 2009-10, Marcus Morris was their most reliable player. Coach Bill Self expects Morris to break out and become a bona fide star and likely first round pick, forming a dynamic inside-outside duo with incoming freshman Josh Selby and the many wings at Self’s disposal this season. Morris averaged 13/6 in around 25 MPG as a sophomore despite all of that talent around him and I don’t believe it’s a stretch he could boost those totals to 18/9 next season. He’s also shown outstanding efficiency in his game- 57% FG, 66% FT (not bad for a college PF and up 6% from his first year), along with rankings of #52 in offensive rating and #62 in efficient FG% in the nation. Morris is a solid rebounder and even has displayed improving range on his jumper. Expect Morris to be one of the main reasons the Jayhawks remain atop the Big 12 even after their numerous personnel losses.

Morris, along with Josh Selby, will lead the KU attack

Kris Joseph, F, Syracuse- Quick trivia question: Who was the third leading scorer on last year’s Syracuse squad after Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins? The answer is the mega-talented Kris Joseph, a slashing swingman from Montreal that has Jim Boeheim already expecting big things heading into his junior season, similar vibes from the Hall-of-Fame coach that we heard last summer regarding Wesley Johnson (and look how that worked out). Joseph has all of the athletic tools to mold into a lottery pick before our very eyes and lead a Syracuse team to back-to-back Big East titles. His first-step quickness is outstanding and Joseph could live at the free throw line this season if his aggressiveness is maintained. Sure, the mid-range shooting game needs improvement, but anyone who watched Joseph score seven of the last ten Orange points in a road win over Georgetown last February knows it’s all about commitment and dedication. If Boeheim pushes the right buttons- and why would we believe otherwise?- watch out.

Terrell Holloway, G, Xavier- Everyone remembers Crawford’s shooting display against Kansas State, but it was fellow guard Terrell Holloway’s clutch buckets and nerve-wracking free throws that kept Xavier breathing time and time again. Holloway will now have to take over as the Musketeers’ go-to offensive threat with both Crawford and senior forward Jason Love on their way out. Holloway saw his minutes jump from 20 to 30 per game in his sophomore season and made newly minted head coach Chris Mack seem awfully smart- his FG% jumped 5% and his scoring average more than doubled. Holloway notched 26 in the crosstown Cincy rivalry game, dropped 20 on LSU, 24 on Richmond and 22 on Dayton, so it’s not as if Holloway is beating up on the dregs of the non-conference schedule. A name still relatively unknown to the casual college hoops fan, Holloway should change that wisdom this season.

Jordan Williams, F, Maryland- The departures of seniors Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne means diaper dandy Jordan Williams is suddenly the focal point of a Terps offense that will look to relish an underdog role for 2010-11. Williams certainly showed signs he can become an impact big man in the ACC in just his second season at College Park. The headline player of last year’s recruiting class, Williams nearly averaged a double-double and shot over 50% as a freshman in one of the toughest conferences in the nation. Now it’ll be Adrian Bowie, Sean Mosley, Dino Gregory and the baby-faced Williams that will have to lead the push. Williams is the youngest and has the highest ceiling of the pack: a bulky 6’10, 260 pound frame, a high basketball IQ, tremendous rebounding instincts and advanced post moves for a player his age. If his 18/5 on 8-12 FG against Trevor Booker and Clemson, his 15/11 against Brian Zoubek and Duke or his 21/17 in the opening round against Houston are any indication, Williams is the next star for the Terps, and that star could shine as soon as this winter.

Michael Thompson, G, Northwestern- Make no mistake about it: Northwestern WILL make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in their school’s history this season. Kevin Coble returns from an ACL tear, John Shurna is back for his junior campaign after averaging 18/6 last season, Drew Crawford appears to be a recruiting coup for Bill Carmody and the only subtraction of note is defensive stalwart Jeremy Nash. But the biggest reason could be Michael “Juice” Thompson, who I feel is on the fast track to Big Ten stardom. Thompson has a fantastic feel for the game, has shot 40% all three years at Northwestern from deep and knows how to run an offense. He’s improved his A/T ratio every year in Evanston and cranked up his scoring average from 9.9 PPG to 14.2 PPG a season ago. Coble and Thompson realize it’s their last chance to knock that giant monkey off Northwestern’s back. Expect them to respond in a big way.

William Buford, G, Ohio State- Nobody is denying the talent of William Buford. A highly regarded recruit out of Toledo, Buford has had his inconsistencies during his first two seasons in Columbus. Still, if you sit back and look at the big picture, Buford has been very valuable for Thad Matta: right around 44% FG both years, 14.4 PPG and 5.6 RPG as a sophomore and an improving court awareness/floor game. Buford struggled initially last season, making just eight of 38 shots in the Buckeyes’ big non-conference duels with UNC, Cal and Florida State, but he picked it up in Evan Turner’s absence with 20/7/3 at Butler. With Turner history, Buford is the most likely candidate to claim alpha dog status for an Ohio State team whose expectations won’t be lowered this upcoming season. While other key Ohio State weapons have their limitations (Diebler, Lauderdale, Sullinger, Lighty), Buford can do pretty much anything on a basketball court and may harness all of that in 2010-11.

With Evan Turner gone, it's now Buford's team

Maalik Wayns, G, Villanova- Whether Wayns is the first off the bench or pairs with Corey Fisher in this year’s Villanova backcourt, expect dramatically more production from the speedy 6’1 guard. Wayns was stuck behind trusted veterans, notably seniors Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding, in Jay Wright’s rotation down the stretch and his minutes and impact certainly faded. It should be a different story in 2010-11 when Wayns is expected to be a double-digit scorer for the Wildcats. The Philly native showed his chops in two 16-point performances on the road in Big East play, finishing the season with a stellar 43% FG for a green freshman and a positively Nova-esque 81% from the charity stripe. Wayns is a Kyle Lowry clone that can get to the rim at will and could be an all-Big East performer as soon as next season.

Wesley Witherspoon, G-F, Memphis- John Calipari’s departure left the Memphis cupboard quite bare with the exception of Witherspoon and Duke transfer Elliot Williams. Both players had breakout seasons and Memphis actually tinkered on the bubble for most of the Conference USA season. Even with a loaded recruiting class entering the fray, it’s Witherspoon who has earned the right to be the #1 offensive option for Josh Pastner in his junior season. Allowed more opportunities on offense, Witherspoon averaged 13/5 on 47/76/43 and his apex came in two performances against UAB and Gonzaga in which the 6’7 swingman dropped 55 combined points. It’s back to reality for Memphis in 2010-11 and that means NCAA tournament and Conference USA championship expectations. Witherspoon should be the guy to lead that push.

Kawhi Leonard, F, San Diego State- Even at a riper age, Steve Fisher showed his recruiting chops in luring California’s Mr. Basketball to the Aztecs and his freshman season was extremely impressive. If he sticks around long enough, Leonard has the leaping ability and hands to lead the nation in rebounding. He was just 0.1 RPG away from double-digit boards per game as an inexperienced freshman. His offensive repertoire is still limited and needs development, but I don’t think it’s far-fetched to expect first team honors for Leonard in a strong MWC next season. He possesses tremendous athleticism and a quick first step to dribble drive past defenders for an easy two. His back-to-back double-doubles against ranked New Mexico and UNLV to clinch an auto bid for San Diego State last March, including a ridiculous 16/21 against the Rebels, were just glimpses into the talent level of Leonard.

Derrick Williams, F, Arizona- Conventional wisdom heading into Sean Miller’s first season at the helm of the Arizona program was that Nic Wise would have to play Superman for the Wildcats to even sniff a chance at extending their NCAA Tournament streak. When the dust settled in March, it was the freshman Williams, not Wise, that led Arizona in scoring, rebounding and FG%, giving disappointed Wildcat fans serious optimism they could have a definite star on their hands. Williams ranked in the top-100 in the nation in effective FG% and true shooting percentage and got the foul line at a stunning rate, drawing 7.4 fouls per 40 minutes of action. You know those “he’s a freshman!” chants that student sections ring out after a great play? Other than Wall or Cousins, Williams deserved that chant just as much as any newcomer to the college hoops scene last season. Just imagine what this kid can do with a summer of development.

Jeffery Taylor, G/F, Vanderbilt- While the Swedish import didn’t improve much from his freshman to sophomore campaigns, most feel Taylor has the skill set and potential to really take off this season and mold into a potential first round selection in the 2011 Draft. What jumps out most about Taylor are his length and defensive ability. He can guard pretty much any position on the floor and is a solid rebounder for a 6’7 wing. Taylor’s mid-range shooting game has also improved, even if defenders still don’t have to pay attention to him beyond the three-point line (1-11 from downtown on the season is quite poor for a small forward) and he also really faded down the stretch. With Jermaine Beal and A.J. Ogilvy gone, it’s up to Taylor to take advantage of this opportunity and send Vanderbilt back to the NCAA Tournament to avenge last season’s disappointing finish.

Alec Burks, G, Colorado- Believe it or not, Colorado actually has a chance to turn some heads in their last season as a member of the Big 12. Very few schools in the country can match the 1-2 punch of senior Cory Higgins and former coach Jeff Bzdelik’s best recruiting job, sophomore Alec Burks, Missouri’s Gatorade Player of the Year in 2009. Burks, a late bloomer with loads of upside, may not see his numbers jump massively with Higgins still around and what new coach Tad Boyle hopes is an improved secondary cast, but Burks could become a better player and maybe win a little bit in the process, upping his cache nationally. Burks is a quick, athletic wing that loves to get to the rim, but also has shown the chops to be a formidable outside shooter at just 19 years old when next season begins. If he can pack on some upper body strength and learn how to make his teammates better, Burks could really burst onto the scene nationally on a team that many feel is a legitimate sleeper.

We’re back with another a Friday edition of The Morning 5. The end of the (work) week means that we are one week closer to Midnight Madness. We hope you all enjoy your Fourth of July celebrations and be safe with whatever you are doing.

1. As an example of what not to do on your holiday weekend (or any time for that matter) we turn to Atlanta, where Georgia athletic director Damon Evans was arrested for a DUI late Wednesday night. We’re expecting quite a bit of talk about this over the next week, but one Atlanta columnist is already taking him to task for the incident (rather lightly we might add) and we don’t expect that to be the last column on the issue. To compound matters (at least in terms of PR) Evans had previously participated in a video advising fans to not drink and drive.
2. Former UConn star Donyell Marshall was named as an assistant coach at George Washington. The move will reunite Marshall with head coach Karl Hobbs, who was an assistant on the UConn teams of the early ’90s when Marshall starred in Storrs, including his 1993-94 campaign when he was named 1st Team All-American and Big East Player of the Year (and, ironically, knocked George Washington out of the NCAA Tournament in the 2nd round).
3. Dana O’Neil checks in with Fran McCaffery who, as the mid-major coach du jour, left Siena a few months ago to take over at Iowa for Todd Lickliter, who was mid-major coach du jour at Butler before coming to Iowa…and was fired three seasons later.
4. Jay Bilas, attorney-at-law (he actually is one) points out the “slippery slope” of the current NCAA charges against USC, UConn, and Memphis in relation to the UCLA dynasty and the recently departed John Wooden (ESPN Insider required; sorry, but it is an interesting article). Many people might take issue with the timing of this article so soon after Wooden’s death, but those people are missing the point of the article. It isn’t so much an attack on Wooden and his teams, but instead targets the NCAA and its antiquated by-laws. We have some issues with certain points of his argument, but we would love to hear your thoughts on the column (if you have ESPN Insider access).
5. Speaking of legendary coaches, Don Meyer of Northern State (D2) was selected to be the recipient of the John W. Bunn Lifetime Achievement Award. Meyer ranks second all-time in wins by a men’s college basketball coach at any level with 923 wins trailing just Harry Statham of McKendree University (NAIA) who has a healthy lead with 1,022 wins. We have a feeling a certain coach out of Durham might be approaching those numbers in the next few years.

1. Coach K is showing no signs of slowing down as he prepares for his summer stint leading the US Men’s National Team again.  The FIBA World Championships take place in Turkey in mid-September, and the team will be chosen from a pool of 27 players next month.  We’re guessing that the names might include the following: Kobe, LeBron, Dwight, Melo and Kevin.  As for Duke, even though K has to replace three starters, his team next year is probably more talented.
2. In this report, Big 12 coaches talk about their feelings as it appeared their league was going to dismantle last month as a result of the almighty football dollar.  Mark Turgeon and Frank Martin’s comments about how NCAA Tournament revenue finances the rest of the NCAA’s championships is the salient point here.  The NCAA needs to figure a way to get in front of the next round of massive expansion or face the ugly specter of eventually getting crowded out completely.
3. Former Memphis guard Roburt Sallie, a player who averaged just under six PPG yet famously dropped ten threes and 35 total points in the 2009 NCAA first round against Cal State Northridge, is transferring to Louisville for his senior season.  If he finishes his undergraduate degree this summer, as expected, he will be eligible to play immediately for Rick Pitino’s team.  His 11/4 averages and 44% three-point shooting will help UL immediately, a team reeling from losing its top four scorers from last year.
4. If you had to guess the game with the largest online viewing in history (subject to change annually, we’re sure), would you choose the US-Algeria World Cup game (during work hours on a Thursday morning) or… Florida-BYU from last year’s NCAA Tournament (incidentally, also on a Thursday during work hours).  Each game had over 1.1M online viewers, but the hoops game had slightly more.
5. Speaking of World Cup, this is great.  We have a rule around here that any and all Freddy Brown (Georgetown ’84) references will make it onto the site in some capacity, so we couldn’t resist when a comparison was made between Mexico’s Ricardo Osorio’s boneheaded pass to blow the game on Sunday and Brown’s gift to North Carolina’s James Worthy some twenty-eight years ago.

School: Kansas

Will Xavier Henry live up to his NBA potential?

Player Name: Elliot Williams

School: Memphis

Height/Weight: 6’4, 180

NBA Position: Shooting Guard

Projected Draft Range: Late first round/Early second round

Overview: Elliot Williams’ college career began under Mike Krzyzewski at Duke, where he played a very limited role early in his freshman year, before finally getting a starting nod towards the end of the season in a non-conference game against St. John’s. Williams brought an athleticism and defensive intensity that had been sorely missing from the Blue Devil lineup, and he proceeded to start ten of the remaining eleven games for Duke that season. Unfortunately for everyone involved, Williams’ mom developed cancer and following his freshman season, he announced that he would be transferring to Memphis to be closer to his family. After receiving an NCAA waiver, Williams played immediately for Memphis and averaged 18 points while playing 33 minutes a night for the Tigers. The lefty proved himself a capable go-to scorer for Memphis, as well as an excellent defensive presence, despite the Tigers missing the NCAA tournament.

Williams Parlayed an Excellent Year at Memphis into the Draft

Will Translate to the NBA: Williams has good size and long arms which, coupled with his athleticism and tireless motor, make him a disruptive defender. He is capable of both harassing opposing ballhandlers and chasing shooters through screens. With the ball, he has a quick, explosive first step and can get into the lane with ease, where he can score in a variety of ways ranging from a little floater to a spectacular finish above the rim. Williams’ handles are good enough for him to play both guard spots, although he is a more natural two, as most of his penetration offensively is intended to create opportunities for himself – the drive-and-dish does not come naturally to him.

Needs Work: First and foremost, Williams needs to develop his off hand. While he is excellent with his left hand, he is clearly uncomfortable going right, nullifying some of his explosiveness due to his offensive predictability. Secondly, while Williams’ shooting numbers increased dramatically in his sophomore season (he shot just 50% from the line and 25% from three as a frosh, bumped up to 76% and 37% respectively last season), he needs to develop a more consistent jumper. And finally, adding the ability to run a halfcourt offense would greatly improve his worth. While he is capable of driving past defenders, adding the ability to find teammates when help comes would give his already dangerous slashing style another facet.

Comparison Players: When Russell Westbrook came out of UCLA after his sophomore season, he was regarded in much the same way Williams is: excellent and sometimes amazing athlete, superb defender, questionable shooter, slightly undersized off-guard who would need to improve his ballhandling and passing in order to be able to play the point as a pro. Despite his limitations coming out of college, Westbrook has turned into a great young NBA point guard in two years, with plenty of upside still remaining. While Williams may not have quite the upside that Westbrook does, it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see him as Westbrook’s lefty equivalent. Certainly Williams isn’t going anywhere near as high as Westbrook did when he was taken with the fourth pick in 2008, but the team that winds up with the 20-year-old late in the first round gets a guy whose skills have a chance to far exceed his draft position.

Best Case Scenario: Williams spends the next year or so developing a right hand and getting comfortable with his jumper, and by the time he is 22 he is ready for regular minutes on an NBA court, excelling in the open court and on defense while his offensive game steadily improves. By the time he is in his mid-20s, he’s getting starter’s minutes and scoring in double figures, even running some lead guard at times while popping up on NBA all-defensive teams and highlight reels.

2013 Projection: Realistically, in three years Williams is a contributor off the bench on a playoff caliber team, getting 15-20 minutes, defending the heck out of the ball, making big plays in transition and throwing down the occasional dunk over a big man. But, if Williams patches up his weaknesses, 2013 could just be the start of his progression towards an NBA starting role.

Best NBA Fit: Ideally, Williams would go somewhere in the first round to a team with a couple of veteran guards from whom he can learn, but also with a spot for him to come in and get a few minutes off the bench. Looking at the teams at the back of the first round, New Jersey looks like a good place: he can learn from Devin Harris and Courtney Lee, while still having a fighting chance at getting some minutes as a rookie. And, there’s always the chance that Mikhail Prokhorov can lure one of the several attractive free agents to New Jersey to make the Nets a viable team for Williams to grow with.

* Andrew Murawa contributed this draft profile to RTC

The Big 12 went all the way to the brink, peered over the other side into non-existence, and then veered away from the white light at the last minute. The patient is now resting comfortably in Austin, although it has lost a little weight.

After last week’s rumors that the University of Texas was all but signed up to head to the Pac-10, bringing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and potentially Texas A&M or Kansas along for the ride, Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe pulled off perhaps the biggest longshot in the college sports year, reportedly in conjunction with an influential group of concerned citizens both within and outside of the world of college athletics, pulling Texas back from the brink with promises of SEC-type money and an ability for the Longhorns to start their own television network, the revenues of which they’ll be able to keep all for themselves. And, just as a little bonus, the remaining ten Big 12 schools (yes, it appears that for the near future, the Big 12 will have ten schools and the Big Ten twelve) will get to split the nearly $20 million in buyout penalties that Colorado and Nebraska must pay for leaving the conference. Maybe Christian Laettner’s shot and Doug Flutie’s pass were more exciting to watch, but Beebe’s last chance attempt at holding the Big 12 together will have a much larger long-term impact on the college sports landscape.

The Most Powerful Athletic Program in College Sports

Texas

The biggest winner here is Texas, on several fronts. According to Beebe’s projections, the Big 12’s next television deal coupled with projected income from a Longhorn television network could provide the university with between $20-$25 million annually, a marked increase from the estimated $10-$11 million they are currently generating.  And, the Longhorns get to remain in a conference with its historic rivals, many of whom were either in the position a few days ago of  doing whatever Texas decided it was going to do, or being left behind if Texas did leave. While the Big 12 was already painted as Texas and the 11 dwarfs before the last week, that image has been cemented in everyone’s minds now. Clearly that will be just another useful recruiting tool for Texas athletics.

Texas A&M

The Aggies come across as the only school in the Big 12 whose leaders were able to think of themselves in a way other than their relationship to Texas. If Texas had made the decision to head west, A&M was already well on its way to paving its own road to the SEC. Whereas before this mess, most would have pointed at Oklahoma or maybe Nebraska as the strong number two program to the Longhorn Ace, Texas A&M went a long way this week toward establishing their own identity. And then, of course, at the last minute the Aggies blinked. Fortunately for them, big daddy Texas still had their backs.

The Little Twelve

So what happens to the conference as a whole? It gets significantly richer, while being in the excellent position of dividing up a bigger pie up into fewer pieces. Beebe’s number should certainly be retired, and any time that he shows up at a Big 12 sporting event for the rest of his lifetime, they should roll out the red carpet for him, sit him down at a nice courtside throne and pay off a few cheerleaders to fan him with feathers and feed him grapes. Iowa State in particular was certainly on the verge of relegation to a mid-major program with Baylor likely not far behind. Missouri’s administrators, who not long ago talked of their involvement in the Big 12 in the past tense, have been saved as well from peddling their wares on the street corner. Kansas and its pre-eminent basketball program has been spared the indignity of either playing out of region in the Big East or asking for shelter from the Mountain West. And all these longtime rivals (or at least most of them) get to continue beating each other up on the playing field. Without a doubt, the 2010-11 season has just taken on some added significance.

Beyond all that, there are the details. First, is this league still the Big 12? We’ve put up with the Big Eleven still calling themselves the Big Ten if only because they were sorta old and quaint, perhaps a little senile, and who could blame them if they couldn’t count anymore. Sure the Atlantic 10 has 14 members, but the Atlantic 14 sounds like a really bad sequel to Ocean’s Eleven. But we really can’t have the Big 12 operating with ten members (assuming they actually stay at ten – more on that in a second), still calling itself the Big 12, can we? The easy solution is to just have the Big Ten and Big 12 swap logos, but something tells me we’re stuck with these names.

Next, the schedules should improve for the conference. As the Pac-10 gave up its claim as the only BCS conference to host a full schedule in football and a home-and-home round-robin in basketball, the Big 12 should be able claim that schedule for their own as its football championship goes on hiatus for awhile and it drops the dead weight at the back end of their basketball slate.

Then, there is also the issue of whether the Big 12 maybe gets a little bit of that expansion greed of its own and tries to reach into the MWC for a couple teams to move back to 12, giving the name meaning again and firing the football championship game back up. Air Force and BYU have already been mentioned, and while I’m not going to say for sure (things ‘round these parts have a way of changing rapidly), I don’t see that happening. The member institutions have this nice new television contract, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense for them to be interested in cutting in two new schools on the deal.

One interesting question that remains is the talk of this television money. The Big 12 still has existing television contracts with Fox (which expires at the end of 2010-11) and ESPN (which expires at the end of 2015-16). Renegotiating the Fox contract surely did not suddenly make the conference flush with all this cash, right? It had to be ESPN that came in to save the day, renegotiating their contract with the Big 12 to allow the conference to stick around. And, in the process, ESPN prevented a bidding war for the rights to the new Pac-16 conference (the Pac-10’s deal expires at the end of 2010-11) and stuck it to Fox a little, since the plans for the new Pac-16 conference network included Fox as an operating partner and perhaps as the main cable conference for the network.   It will be interesting to see the details about exactly where this conference-saving television contract came from at some point in the future.

Pac-10. Or 11. Or 12?

So, with the Big 12 (or 10, or god knows what) all set, where does that leave the Pac-10, which currently has 11 teams? Commissioner Larry Scott is not going to be able to reel in the big fish, but he’s still got a line out there, looking for a 12^th team with the likeliest target being Utah. And frankly, Utah is probably snapping around in the water just begging to get a bite of that hook. Utah is everything the Pac-10 is looking for, and the combination of Colorado and Utah was the likeliest set of invitees to the Pac-10 all along. Utah is a large state research institution in a big western market, and they match well with Colorado as their traveling partner in the Pac-10’s geographical clustered format. Utah athletic director Chris Hill has made it clear that  his school is happy in the MWC, but he would have a hard time turning down an offer from the Pac-10, which would certainly be more profitable.

Utah is Likely to be the 12th Member of the New Pac-12

While the Pac-10 may take a little heat in the general public for having missed out on Texas, the perspective I see is that they swung for the fences, and only wound up with a double. They still will likely end up with the schools they thought they had the best chance of getting at the start of this whole process, and the schools that were the best geographic and cultural matches. The talk is that they’ll still proceed with their plans for a conference cable network, as they’re still well positioned for their upcoming television negotiations (although there isn’t much chance they’ll get the type of money the Big 12 got), and they’ll now be able to hold the football championship game they wanted all along.

And, if the Pac-10 does wind up at 12, don’t expect them to force the Pac-10 moniker on us. They’ll at least be smart enough to call it what it is, the Pac-12.

Mountain West

With Utah apparently the next target for the Pac-10, the Mountain West could wind up basically trading Utah for Boise State. With Utah, the MWC would have been a very strong football conference,but without the Utes they’re basically back to where they were last season. The worst case scenario for the MWC is if the Big 12 does in fact try to get back to twelve teams by poaching a couple of the MWC schools, like Air Force and BYU. In that unlikely scenario, both the MWC and Boise State wind up the big, big losers in the whole affair, with the both sides wondering why they didn’t wait a few more days to make their union official. As it is, however, it looks like mostly a wash. But the college sports landscape may lose another of its big conference rivalries, with BYU and Utah being split up.

Will the MWC try to replace Utah? If so, it won’t be an upgrade; possible targets would be further WAC teams like Fresno State, Nevada or Utah State, but those conversations may be further down the road.

What’s next?

The next big story will likely be the Pac-10’s courtship of Utah, which shouldn’t really be a long and suspense-filled dalliance. After that, we may downshift into normalcy for awhile. Big Ten expansion has moved back over into the slow lane (although I don’t suspect that they are quite done yet), and Jim Delany’s original 12-18 month timetable is again the order of the day. With the Pac-10 and Big 12 pieces of the puzzle off the table (Orangebloods.com reports that the new TV deal for the Big 12 will lock the schools into the conference for the life of the deal), any further conference realignment will be focused in the east. The Big Ten, if it expands further, will still look at Notre Dame and several Big East football schools. There is talk of Memphis trying to buy its way into a BCS conference via FedEx CEO Fred Smith’s offer of up to $10 million annually for an invitation, and some talk that the Big East may be interested. The SEC could still be interested in some ACC football powers, although the SEC/ESPN contract that was once such hot stuff is no longer all that outrageous anymore. For the time being, however, it looks like we have passed the hyper-critical stage of conference realignment, with just three confirmed moves so far, and it looks like we have avoided the apocalyptic meltdown that was once a distinct possibility. At least until all these television contracts get ready to expire again.

1. Tom Izzo update — shockingly, the Michigan State coach is still considering the Cleveland Cavaliers job, but a report that surfaced late Sunday night stated that LeBron James would be behind the Izzo hiring.  What’s less clear is whether that means James would support the hire as a member of the Cavs or as a member of some other team, a key distinction surely not lost on Izzo in trying to make his decision.  Honestly, the only way that this move makes sense for Izzo is if he can rest assured that he’ll have the opportunity to coach LeBron; otherwise, he’ll be in much the same position that his collegiate forebears such as Pitino, Calipari and Floyd found at the next level — in possession of a swollen bank account but an emaciated roster.
2. You typically don’t see this happen often, but Ralph Willard did it last year when he left Holy Cross to become an assistant at Louisville and now Indiana State head coach Kevin McKenna is leaving his post to become an assistant under Dana Altman at Oregon.  McKenna was only 43-52 in his three seasons at ISU but he did get the Sycamores to the CBI last year, so you wonder what might have been the underlying reason for this move.
3. Was the Pac-10 taking another look at Kansas in light of rumors that Texas A&M is more interested in moving to the SEC (leaving the rest of the Big 12 South to the west coast)?  Pac-10 Commish Larry Scott was scheduled to stop over in Kansas City on Sunday night, but apparently the plane never showed up.  Does this mean that A&M is back on board with the move west?  And what of Missouri, who was so gung-ho about joining the Big Ten a month ago, but who is now scrambling around to try to save itself and the rest of the Big 12 (good luck with that).  Sensing an opportunity to improve its profile, the Mountain West is already looking at both schools as possible expansion candidates.
4. D-day for the Big 12 will be Tuesday, as the regents for the University of Texas will meet to decide what, if anything, to do about the reported offers to join the Pac-10 or the SEC versus staying put.  If the Horns decide to move, the Big 12 will probably be kaput as a major conference, a doomsday situation that had its commissioner spending the weekend trying to convince UT brass that a 10-team conference could still remain viable and that the school would be free to pursue its own television deal (presumably something the new Pac-16 would not allow).  Stay tuned — much more will undoubtedly happen this week.
5. FedEx CEO Fred Smith has his own ideas about conference realignment — if any BCS league agrees to take his beloved Memphis Tigers into its fold, that league could earn up to $10M yearly for the invitation.  The most likely beneficiary?  The Big East, especially if the Big Ten as expected raids some of the conference’s football-playing schools.

1. Why do we keep talking about Coach K going to the NBA?  Recent rumors linked the Duke head coach to the opening with the Cleveland LeBrons, but as expected, K restated that he’s happy in Durham and isn’t going anywhere.  In our opinion, the tipping point for Krzyzewski came in the mid-2000s when he seriously considered leaving Duke for the Lakers job; his dalliance with the prospect of coaching Kobe Bryant in a marquee environment wasn’t enough to get him to leave.  Now, at 63 and with a realistic shot at passing Rupp for five national titles in his career, he’s settled on summering with the US men’s national team to satisfy his desire to work with the world’s best athletes while spending the remainder where he clearly belongs.  Good choice.
2. The Kansas athletic department is looking more and more like a rogue actor, from top to bottom.  With new revelations coming out yesterday that AD Lew Perkins took gifts of thousands of dollars worth of athletic equipment from a local company, we have to wonder where the lines were drawn there, if they were at all.
3. John Calipari has no comment about the Eric Bledsoe controversy, but Andy Staples believes that Calipari’s utilization of plausible deniability is phenomenal in its execution — even better than the dribble-drive offense of which the coach has been so successful in using.
4. To that end, how great would it be if the NCAA finally got serious about regulating these programs and quit concerning itself nearly as much about the Alabama States and West Freakin’ Georgias of the world.  Creating a level playing field for everyone should be the goal, but how about we start with the 75-100 biggest schools and work down from there?
5. We knew Memphis head coach Josh Pastner was an insane workaholic when it came to recruiting, but we didn’t know just how crazy until we read this.  For better or worse, we suppose.

There's been no comment from Bledsoe or UK as of yet.

Mr. Ford, as Thamel and Thayer note, has denied all of the accusations.  And according to Matt May of CatsPause.com, the folks at Kentucky haven’t even received a letter of inquiry about these issues.

If something actually comes from this, the bigger question will be how much the Kentucky program — and specifically John Calipari — actually knew about what was happening.  Fans of the UK coach will note how, regarding the “troubles” at his former jobs at Massachusetts and Memphis, Calipari was never specifically dinged with any wrongdoing, and that the mistakes made by Marcus Camby and Derrick Rose were out of the realm of what Calipari could realistically police.  On the other hand, Calipari-haters are about as giddy as Keith Olbermann watching George W. Bush fall down a flight of stairs.  They’ve already tried the man and handed down a guilty verdict long ago, and have just been waiting for something on which they could pin it.  Both sides would be well-advised to keep calm for now.

Unfortunately for Kentucky fans, it’s the program, and not necssarily the player or coach under investigation, that usually takes the hit if penalties are deemed necessary.  If something comes from this — and again, we don’t know if anything will — could Kentucky be stripped of its 35 wins from last year, which would put them back behind that 2,000-win mark?  Could those UK2K shirts become collector’s items?  Or would the NCAA rule that Bledsoe simply has to pay back whatever money was borrowed?  Since Bledsoe is no longer under the thumb of the NCAA, that might be tough to enforce.  To be sure, even if there is something to be found here, the accusations will be tough to prove.   Academic fraud at a high school is not as easy to verify as you’d think, and this matter of rent payments would be even tougher.  Again, unfortunately for Kentucky supporters, the NCAA is detective, judge, jury, and executioner, and they get to determine what constitutes good, hard, believable evidence.  And even if the NCAA finds something and says that the guilt lies totally with Eric Bledsoe and not with John Calipari or anyone at the University of Kentucky, it’s likely that the UK program would still feel the NCAA’s pimp slap while Bledsoe skates.  IF that happens, you can bet that the Calipari-to-NBA talk will heat up again, and you’d have to figure that the UK recruits who didn’t sign letters of intent would suddenly start to reconsider.

We’ll see what happens.  It’s still early days, yet.  Considering the recent news out of Kansas and Connecticut…it’s been a tough week for some of college basketball’s leviathan programs.

]]> http://rushthecourt.net/2010/05/28/is-this-what-caliparis-detractors-have-been-waiting-for/feed/ 5 http://rushthecourt.net/2010/05/21/morning-five-05-21-10-edition/ http://rushthecourt.net/2010/05/21/morning-five-05-21-10-edition/#comments Fri, 21 May 2010 07:58:04 +0000 rtmsf http://rushthecourt.net/?p=21719

1. The NCAA is discussing the highly-anticipated question as to how to structure the new 68-team NCAA Tournament, and specifically, the four play-in games.  We’ve written extensively about the options on the table (and preferences), but in reading yesterday that there are three possibilities — slotting the last eight auto-bids, the last eight at-larges, or a hybrid of the two (interesting…) — we’re happy that they’re considering the right questions.  In reading the tea leaves, it’s apparent that they are concerned about the same low-RPI leagues ending up in the four PiGs every year, but a proposed “rotation system” seems very contrived.  Does a SWAC team get a bye into the first round as a #15 seed regardless of resume if they’re in the PiG three straight years?  And what of this hybrid option — how would that look?
2. Was the Class of 2007 one of the greatest high school classes of all-time?  It’s difficult to make that statement just three years out, but so far, as this Basketball Prospectus piece shows, the star power of that class (Love, Mayo, Beasley, Gordon, Griffin, etc.) leaves most other classes in the dust.
3. Alabama’s Justin Knox will transfer to either Georgia Tech or UNC after the Tide program refused to grant him a waiver so that he could go to UAB, his top choice.  Knox states that he believes the transfer will help his goal of reaching the NBA, but if that’s true, we’re not really sure what he would have been able to get in Birmingham that he couldn’t get in Tuscaloosa.  Or what he thinks he can get in the ACC that he couldn’t get in the SEC.  The whole thing is just very strange, and Alabama fans are convinced that UAB was recruiting him while he was still a member of the Tide program.
4. With the signing deadline passed this week, here’s your top 25 recruiting classes for 2010.  Kentucky is obviously #1 and Memphis #2 with loads of talent coming in at every position, but the ACC (four of the top ten) and Big Ten (four of the top fifteen) appear to be the leagues with the strongest influx of talent arriving.  In a related piece, Luke Winn lists his top ten developments of the spring recruiting period this year.
5. Speaking of Memphis, guard Roburt Sallie is leaving the program to transfer to a school closer to his hometown of Sacramento, California, or to pursue professional opportunities overseas.  He is due to receive his degree in August, and if he does so, he will not have to sit out the transfer year and will therefore be eligible to play college basketball in 2010-11.  Mike Montgomery on line two.

This past weekend, the NBA Draft early entry deadline came and went. With most of the incoming freshman having decided their destination next fall (looking at you Terrence Jones) and underclassmen making their final announcements about next year’s plans, we finally have a solid sense of how the rosters will shake out for the 2010-11 college basketball season. Sounds like a fantastic time for another top 25 to me. I did my best to project each team’s starting lineup (which of course could change with injuries, suspensions, academic ineligibility, etc. from now until November) and even strapped on some predictions at the end. Enjoy.

1. Duke

Starting Lineup: G Kyrie Irving, G Nolan Smith, F Kyle Singler, F Mason Plumlee, F Miles Plumlee

The Blue Devils established themselves as the near-consensus top team as soon as Kyle Singler opted to return to Durham for another campaign. The losses of big bodies Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek could leave them a bit thin up front and slightly vulnerable against sizable opponents like Kansas State (both will participate in the CBE Classic) or ACC foe Florida State, but Mason Plumlee is a tremendous candidate to break out in his sophomore season. Jon Scheyer is replaced at the point by who scouts are saying might be the best guard to ever come out of New Jersey in Kyrie Irving. Pair him with returnee Nolan Smith and the Blue Devils are a prime candidate to push the tempo this season. Singler and Smith are both definite ACC POY candidates and Irving is the biggest recruit for Coach K since Josh McRoberts. Seth Curry was a 20+ PPG scorer at Liberty in 2008-09 and should be the first guard off the bench, while Andre Dawkins gives Coach K a deadeye shooter for crunch time. This combination of talent plus a championship trophy from April equates to an easy #1 ranking in the preseason.

2. Michigan State

Starting Lineup: G Kalin Lucas, G Durrell Summers, F Draymond Green, F Delvon Roe, C Derrick Nix

The only contributing player missing from last year’s Final Four squad is Raymar Morgan, meaning Tom Izzo is primed for another run deep into March. There are question marks- the readiness of Lucas after his devastating Achilles injury, the focus of Summers for an entire season in a loaded conference and the health of Roe up front. If Lucas returns to form, he’s an All-America candidate, while wings Summers and Chris Allen can spring for six treys on any night. Draymond Green is a bulky point-forward with an improving mid-range jumper that makes him extremely difficult to guard. The bench should also be stellar with Allen, Korie Lucious- who garnered valuable experience in place of Lucas last March- and two highly regarded recruits in Adreian Payne and Keith Appling. As usual, Izzo chose to challenge his Spartans in the preseason. They’ll head to Maui, face Syracuse in the Jimmy V and also have the Big 10/ACC Challenge contest on the docket.

3. Purdue

Starting Lineup: G Lewis Jackson, G Kelsey Barlow, G E’Twaun Moore, F Robbie Hummel, C JaJuan Johnson

The most important announcement of this past weekend was the decision of both E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson to return for their final season in West Lafayette. Both players made the right call- Johnson isn’t strong or consistent enough for the NBA and Moore may have gone undrafted. Plus, the Boilers have a decent shot at bringing home a national title next April. Robbie Hummel is way ahead of schedule recovering from his knee injury and Lewis Jackson will have a full season to blossom without any foot injury hindrances. Matt Painter will miss the leadership and work of lockdown perimeter defender Chris Kramer, but there’s more than enough production on both ends to contemplate beating out Michigan State and Ohio State for a conference title. Look for Kelsey Barlow to step in at Keaton Grant’s spot in the lineup, but I also wouldn’t count out incoming freshman Terone Johnson earning substantial minutes.

4. Kansas State

Starting Lineup: G Jacob Pullen, G Rodney McGruder, F Dominique Sutton, F Curtis Kelly, F Jamar Samuels

I’m not trying to underestimate the value of Denis Clemente to the Wildcats, but Frank Martin’s team could be even better protecting the Octagon of Doom than last season. Nobody will be out-manning or out-working Kansas State on the boards this season. They feature an assembly line of big bodies that can dominate the backboards and score respectably with UConn transfer Curtis Kelly being the most skilled. Jacob Pullen enters his senior season as the frontrunner for Big 12 Player of the Year and could be a First Team All-American. Pullen has tremendous range on his jumper, but the blow-by-ability (h/t Clark Kellogg) is also sensational. Look for athletic freak Wally Judge to break out in a big way during his sophomore campaign.

5. Villanova

Starting Lineup: G Maalik Wayns, G Corey Fisher, G Corey Stokes, F Antonio Pena, F Mouphtaou Yarou

I started this Top 25 thinking Villanova would be right around the #10-#13 range. After all, they lost clutch extraordinaire and four-year team leader Scottie Reynolds. But they kept moving up my rankings, mostly because I loved what I saw from Maalik Wayns in short spurts last season. He’s the next great Villanova guard and a clone of former Wildcat Kyle Lowry with even better passing ability. Corey Fisher is more than capable of running the Nova offense and could lead the Big East in free throws attempted. No guard duo will get to the line more often than Wayns and Fisher, plus Stokes provides a kick-out dimension for open threes. The frontline should be respectable led by much-improved Antonio Pena and the bench is capable with Dominic Cheek, Taylor King and Isaiah Armwood all bringing different facets to the table. Villanova is the best team in the Big East.

6. Pittsburgh

Starting Lineup: G Ashton Gibbs, G Brad Wanamaker, F Gilbert Brown, F Nasir Robinson, C Gary McGhee

One of the steadiest programs in college basketball, Pittsburgh returns everyone but Jermaine Dixon from a team that shocked most prognosticators and earned a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Panthers almost never lose at home and Jamie Dixon is easily one of the best coaches around. Ashton Gibbs is as good of a pick as any to win conference player of the year honors. Gibbs improved mightily from his freshman to sophomore campaigns and is the best free throw shooter in the nation. Defensive intensity has always been a staple of Pitt basketball, and while ace stopper Dixon has left, this core returning is more than capable of topping the Big East in opponents PPG. Gilbert Brown is an athletic wing that keeps improving and Brad Wanamaker acts as another outside shooter to go with Gibbs. The bench is boasted by speedy guard Travon Woodall and heralded recruit Dante Taylor.

7. Ohio State

Starting Lineup: G William Buford, G Jon Diebler, G/F David Lighty, F Dallas Lauderdale, F Jared Sullinger

The Buckeyes have the pure talent to earn this spot in the Top 25, but they could encounter some problems gelling as a unit, at least in the early going. Evan Turner did everything for this team- he was their go-to scorer, point guard, top rebounder and ran the offense. Two problems confronted Thad Matta last season: shaky point guard play (why Turner had to take on the role) and a consistent low post presence. The latter is solved by bringing in Jared Sullinger, a DeMarcus Cousins-type impact player who could be an All-American his freshman year. The former is still up in the air and could ultimately cost Ohio State when they have to face Kalin Lucas and Lewis Jackson. The pieces are exciting, though. Jon Diebler is a fantastic outside shooter and David Lighty is one of the best defenders in the nation. Look for William Buford to break out on a national level.

8. Butler

Starting Lineup: G Shelvin Mack, G Ronald Nored, G Shawn Vanzant, F Matt Howard, C Andrew Smith

I realize Gordon Hayward was their best player, but people are acting like Butler will fall off drastically in his absence. I’m not convinced; in fact, I think they’ll be a top ten team throughout the season. Shelvin Mack only gets better and better with his jump shot, improving by around 6% in both FG% and 3pt% last year. Now that Chris Kramer has left us, Ronald Nored may take on the role of best perimeter defender in the nation. Nored contained Andy Rautins, Jacob Pullen and Durrell Summers during their NCAA Tournament brigade. If he stays out of foul trouble, Matt Howard is a reliable low-post presence. Their success in March could depend on whether the role players- Vanzant, Smith, Butcher and incoming freshman Khyle Marshall- contribute in the absence of Hayward and Willie Veasley.

9. Baylor

Starting Lineup: G A.J. Walton, G LaceDarius Dunn, F Quincy Acy, F Perry Jones, F Anthony Jones

The athleticism of this team is off the charts, and that’s even with Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter departing. The big question mark will be whether sophomore A.J. Walton can replace Carter at the point. He has the task of finding LaceDarius Dunn off screens for open jumpers and also feeding both Quincy Acy and Perry Jones in the post. Jones is the most heralded recruit to ever come to Baylor and has the potential to surpass Udoh’s production in the low post; in fact, he could go in the top three in next year’s NBA Draft. The question with Jones has always been consistent effort and intensity. Acy is a dunk machine that dropped 24 (literally dropped, it was a dunkfest) on Texas last February and could blossom into a special player alongside Jones. This is a risky spot for Baylor given the loss of Udoh and, more importantly, their point guard Carter, but I trust Scott Drew to blend the pieces together effectively.

10. Georgetown

Starting Lineup: G Chris Wright, G Austin Freeman, G Jason Clark, F Hollis Thompson, F Julian Vaughn

Next year gives us an opportunity to see just how important Greg Monroe was to this team. I’m a big believer in their backcourt duo of Chris Wright and Austin Freeman. Wright is a steady, intelligent playmaker that really emerged down the stretch last season, while Freeman shot a remarkable 44% from deep and has an entire summer to manage his diabetes that seemed to hinder the junior sharpshooter late last season. Jason Clark improved tremendously last season and gives JTIII another shooting weapon. The question mark is obviously production from the post in the absence of Monroe. I saw enough from Thompson and Vaughn last season to not be super concerned. Incoming freshman Nate Lubick will also aid the cause.

11. Washington

Starting Lineup: G Isaiah Thomas, G Venoy Overton, F Justin Holiday, F Terrence Jones, F Matthew Bryan-Amaning

As long as Terrence Jones doesn’t go back on his word and switch allegiances to Kentucky, the Huskies will enter next season as the favorites to run away with the Pac-10. Jones immediately becomes their best player, a hybrid 4-man that many compare to Lamar Odom. He has the ability to beat you from the perimeter or in the low post. The backcourt is stellar with enigmatic point guard Isaiah Thomas back for another hurrah. He’s joined by defensive pest Venoy Overton and Abdul Gaddy, a hyped freshman that never found a niche last season in Seattle. Talented wing and Jones’ high school teammate Terrence Ross should make an impact immediately. Still, there’s no doubt Washington will struggle with offensive production in the paint without Quincy Pondexter.

12. Missouri

Starting Lineup: G Phil Pressey, G Kim English, G Marcus Denmon, F Laurence Bowers, F Justin Safford

Missouri may not be the 12^th best team in the nation, but I’m a huge fan of their system, coach and incoming recruiting class. Mike Anderson’s press always keeps his team in games regardless of the deficit and is an absolute nightmare for the opposition. Kim English is an all-Big 12 candidate and Anderson also should get big man Justin Safford back from an ACL injury. His height absence really killed them against Kansas last March and in their second round tournament loss to West Virginia. Missouri has three stud recruits coming to Columbia- Texas natives Tony Mitchell and Paul Pressey (who could run the show immediately with Michael Dixon) along with JC transfer Ricardo Ratcliffe. The Tigers will miss the leadership and defense of J.T. Tiller, but the talent is oozing here. Missouri is my Elite 8 sleeper.

13. Kentucky

Starting Lineup: G Brandon Knight, G Doron Lamb, G Darius Miller, F Josh Harrellson, C Enes Kanter

This seems like a good place for Kentucky. Twice in two years John Calipari will have an entirely new team at his disposal, another unit littered with high-profile recruits that could bolt after just a single season in Lexington. Brandon Knight and Enes Kanter are two of the top ten incoming freshmen in the nation. Knight isn’t quite John Wall in terms of passing ability and making his team better, but he’s much more likely to explode for 30 points. Kanter has advanced post moves for his age and can also step out to about 16 feet. The issue with Kentucky will be at the 4 spot where they currently have little-used Josh Harrellson as the projected starter after missing out on Terrence Jones and C.J. Leslie. I don’t think Calipari expected that to happen.

14. UNLV

Starting Lineup: G Oscar Bellfield, G Tre’Von Willis, G/F Chace Stanback, F Matt Shaw, C Brice Massamba

UNLV is my sleeper for the top-15. They return nearly everyone of note from a squad that beat both BYU and New Mexico last season and lost at the last second to Northern Iowa in the NCAA Tournament. Tre’Von Willis might be the most talented player in the conference, evident by his explosions (57 points in 2 games) against BYU last season. Oscar Bellfield stepped in at point guard and compiled a 2.5 A/T ratio, quite the impressive total for a sophomore. Kentucky transfer Derrick Jasper will be healthy after spraining his MCL last January. UNLV returns their top eight scorers and they all averaged 5 PPG or more. Plus, they boast a fantastic coach to boot. They won’t quite be the early-90s Runnin’ Rebels, but the makeup of this roster is exciting.

15. Gonzaga

Starting Lineup: G Demetri Goodson, G Stephen Gray, F Elias Harris, F Kelly Olynyk, C Robert Sacre

Matt Bouldin was fantastic last season, but I don’t foresee his absence derailing such a steady program. It’s scary to think how good Elias Harris will be with a summer to improve. Remember his 31/13 in a win at Saint Mary’s? You could be seeing plenty more performances at that level from the ultra-skilled German. It wouldn’t stun me if Harris is a lottery pick next summer. I’ll be honest, I expected a lot more from Demetri Goodson after bursting onto the scene with his game-winning floater against Western Kentucky last March. 1.8 APG and 14% from three is abominable for a starting point guard on a team with this much talent. Now he doesn’t have Bouldin as a crutch, either. Stephen Gray is so much more than a three-point specialist, but he needs to shoot better from outside this season. Robert Sacre emerging as a legitimate post presence takes a lot of pressure off Gray to produce.

16. Syracuse

Starting Lineup: G Brandon Triche, G Scoop Jardine, F Kris Joseph, F Rick Jackson, C Fab Melo

Syracuse loses quite possibly the first and third best players in a loaded Big East, yet they should still be more than respectable and will likely begin the season fourth in the conference pecking order (if they’re still a member). The backcourt is boosted by incoming freshman Dion Waiters. Scoop Jardine could have a monstrous year as playmaker, slasher and scorer for the Orange, while sophomore Brandon Triche will likely get the starting nod running the offense. Kris Joseph showed glimpses of future stardom, most notably at the end of their win at Georgetown. He’s fabulous at getting to the rim and can pop from mid-range. Fab Melo and Rick Jackson will take up plenty of space and score the basketball effectively down low. This is still a really good team, folks.

17. Kansas

Starting Lineup: G Josh Selby, G Tyshawn Taylor, F Thomas Robinson, F Markieff Morris, F Marcus Morris

Kansas is quite possibly the hardest team to project. The situation is similar to when Bill Self lost nearly his entire team following their title in 2008 and the Jayhawks still managed a #3 seed and Big 12 title the following year. That happening again really depends on whether players like Thomas Robinson, Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey can play in one of the toughest conferences in the nation. We just haven’t seen enough to know yet. Will Brady Morningstar and Tyrell Reed respond to being depended on more than as role players surrounded by elite talent? Can Josh Selby step in immediately and run the point and will Tyshawn Taylor play the season with his head on straight? Marcus Morris is the lone “sure thing” here. His improvement was remarkable last season to the point where he became their most dependable player. It would be foolish to think Kansas is in for a huge dropoff, but there’s so much yet to be determined.

18. Temple

Starting Lineup: G Ramone Moore, G Juan Fernandez, F Rahlir Jefferson, F Lavoy Allen, F Micheal Eric

I’ll give the Owls the slight edge over Xavier in my Atlantic 10 standings, primarily because they’re the defending champs and return both Juan Fernandez and Lavoy Allen. Fernandez burst onto the scene with his virtuoso performance against then-unblemished Villanova and shot 45% from deep last season. The loss of Ryan Brooks will sting, but Ramone Moore contributed in bursts last season (24 at St. Joe’s) and will develop. Allen’s decision to return was absolutely huge. He’s their best post scorer, rebounder and shot blocker. Question is: Will this be the year Fran Dunphy finally wins an NCAA Tournament game for the first time since 1994?

19. Tennessee

Starting Lineup: G Melvin Goins, G Cameron Tatum, G Scotty Hopson, F Tobias Harris, F Brian Williams

Tennessee will go as far as Scotty Hopson will take them. He has all the talent in the world but fades in and out of games and has yet to show consistency. Case in point: In four of Tennessee’s last seven games, Hopson scored eight points or less, something that can never happen if the Vols want to contend for an SEC title this season. If he stays away from trouble, Brian Williams can be a force down low and 6’8 power forward Tobias Harris joining the squad should be a definite boost. Still, Bruce Pearl lost Wayne Chism, J.P Prince and Bobby Maze from last year’s Elite 8 squad and enters the summer with a big question mark at point guard.

20. Virginia Tech

Starting Lineup: G Malcolm Delaney, G Dorenzo Hudson, G/F Terrell Bell, F Jeff Allen, F J.T. Thompson

Other than Purdue, the team most excited with last weekend’s developments had to be Virginia Tech. The return of Malcolm Delaney boosts the Hokies to a surefire ACC contender.  Seth Greenberg won’t be sweating profusely on Selection Sunday this time around. Delaney might be the top pure scorer in the nation with the ability to shoot with accuracy from anywhere on the floor. He could average 22-23 PPG this season and forms quite the 1-2 backcourt punch with Dorenzo Hudson. Jeff Allen is outstanding in the post, but he’s undersized at 6’7 and Tech could run into difficulty against bigger teams that crash the boards. Luckily, nobody in the ACC other than Florida State really stands out in that category.

21. Illinois

Starting Lineup: G D.J. Richardson, G Demetri McCamey, F Jereme Richmond, F Mike Davis, C Mike Tisdale

Illinois is yet another talented team from the Big 10. We all saw the verbal spats between Demetri McCamey and Bruce Weber late last season, so chemistry is a legitimate concern. McCamey was probably reluctant to return to Champaign, but his presence makes the Illini light years better. After all, he did lead all of college basketball in assists. D.J. Richardson looks like the better player over Brandon Paul, and that’s not a diss at Paul’s ability. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale also return for their senior campaigns. Davis is a fantastic rebounder but fell off a bit offensively last season. Tisdale, a 7’1 center with a sweet jumper, just keeps getting better.

22. BYU

Starting Lineup: G Jimmer Fredette, G Jackson Emery, G Kyle Collinsworth, F Noah Hartsock, F Brandon Davies

Jonathan Tavernari graduated, Michael Loyd didn’t mesh and Taylor Haws has a mission to complete, but BYU still has a solid club returning for another push in the Mountain West. The most obvious reason is the decision of one Jimmer Fredette to come back to Provo. Fredette is a First Team All-American contender that shot 46/89/44 as a junior and scored 133 points in his last four games last season. That’s not a typo. Backcourt mate Jackson Emery is also back and incoming freshman Kyle Collinsworth will get playing time right away. Davies and Hartsock should be able to hold their own in the frontcourt.

23. North Carolina

Starting Lineup: G Larry Drew, G Will Graves, F Harrison Barnes, F Tyler Zeller, F John Henson

The Heels won’t be reclaiming any glory in 2010-11, but they should be much better. The biggest reason is stud freshman Harrison Barnes, the best rookie to play college basketball next winter. Barnes is a 6’6 wing with a fantastic mid-range game, high basketball IQ and is very athletic. Last year’s players will be challenged by the loaded incoming class, whether it be Kendall Marshall at the point pushing Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland or Reggie Bullock at the 2 giving Will Graves some competition for playing time. The frontline got plenty thinner with the departure of Ed Davis and the Wear twins and Tyler Zeller likes to float to the perimeter. John Henson needs to get a lot tougher and a lot stronger this summer to make an impact.

24. Memphis

Starting Lineup: G Joe Jackson, G Will Barton, G/F Wesley Witherspoon, F Will Coleman, F Angel Garcia

A top-15 team with Elliot Williams, Memphis will have to settle for #24 and one of the more intriguing teams for next season. I’m going to assume the freshman duo of Joe Jackson and Will Barton form the backcourt immediately for Josh Pastner. There’s just way too much talent to think any differently, plus Williams and Willie Kemp are gone and Roburt Sallie is better suited as a three-point popper off the bench. Wesley Witherspoon had a stretch last season where he scored 55 points in two games against UAB and Gonzaga. Will Coleman finished the season with two double-doubles and Angel Garcia has skill through the roof. There’s so much potential here.

25. Utah State

Starting Lineup: G Tyler Newbold, G Pooh Williams, F Brady Jardine, F Tai Wesley, F Nate Bendall

One of the most successful mid-major programs in college basketball the last five years, Utah State might have their best team under Stew Morrill next season. The only loss is Jared Quayle from a team that once again dominated the WAC. Tai Wesley and Nate Bendall is a fearsome duo in the post and Tyler Newbold should hold his own replacing Quayle at the point with Pooh Williams as another option. The conference was hurt by the early departures of Nevada’s Luke Babbitt and New Mexico State’s Jahmar Young, meaning the Aggies could go all General Sherman on the conference. I just wish they’d play someone in November and December.

Just missed: Xavier, Florida, Texas, Richmond, NC State.

Sleepers: San Diego State, Georgia, Northwestern, Colorado, St. John’s.

Preseason Awards

National Player of the Year- Kyle Singler, Duke

National Freshman of the Year- Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

National Coach of the Year- Mike Anderson, Missouri

First Team All-America:

G- Kalin Lucas (Michigan State)

G- Jacob Pullen (Kansas State)

G- Jimmer Fredette (BYU)

F- Kyle Singler (Duke)

F- JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)

1. Butler will have to deal with the ghoulish specter of Expectations next year without star forward Gordon Hayward, who has decided to remain in the NBA Draft pool.  The Bulldogs should still be very good in 2010-11, but it’s unlikely to expect another run at the national title without the versatile Hayward back on campus.  Ole Miss guard Terrico White has also decided to stay in the draft, forgoing his final two years of eligibility.  This is a questionable decision, as some prognosticators think White may sneak into the bottom of the first round, while others think he’ll be lucky to be drafted.  With the withdrawal deadline looming on Saturday, there will be a number of these over the next few days (we hope) and Northern Arizona’s Cam Jones is one of the first to announce a return to school.
2. Some coaching news from yesterday as Temple’s Fran Dunphy was rewarded for another NCAA campaign with an extension that will keep him secure through the 2018 season.  At Kentucky, John Calipari responded to the Chicago Bull rumors with an audio tweet stating that he’s only interested in an extension at UK, not a raise.  After the Tim Welsh debacle at Hofstra, the university wasted no time in hiring Mo Cassara, an assistant that Welsh had hired from Boston College, for the top spot.  A month ago he didn’t even have a job — now he’s the head coach.
3. How about some transfer news today to round out things?  Memphis added New Orleans transfer Charles Carmouche, a scoring guard who will be eligible immediately for his final two seasons as a result of UNO’s self-demotion to Division 3.  Alabama is restricting rising senior Justin Knox’s transfer bid to UAB as a result of what they think is tampering.  Bizarre situation for the 2008-09 SEC men’s basketball scholar-athlete of the year who will have already graduated from the school this year.
4. Oklahoma State forward Matt Pilgrim has been served with a protective order by a woman who is claiming that he raped her on April 12.  Pilgrim was an integral part of the inside game for the Pokes last season (8/7) and undoubtedly was expected to be even more prominent next year.  He posted this on his Facebook page on Wednesday afternoon: “I can’t take it no more… I always play the victim. (All) I’ve done was work hard to prove people wrong… People lie and every one that know(s) me know(s) my passion to become somebody, but Satan is working overtime on me…. But I’m (going to) let God handle this… I will still work hard to provide for me and the ones I love. Please do (not believe what’s) going on. I just want peace… Sorry to everyone that is affected by this.”  You never know what the details will show in situations like these, so let’s just hope that justice (whatever its form) is served in the end.
5. Testing the waters is a sham now that the NCAA caved in to several prominent whiners coaches and gives prospective NBA players a mere two weeks during  many schools’ exam period to gauge their stock.  We have a piece up on this today, and Gary Parrish chimed in as well with some of his own research from the NBA side of the ledger (result: most NBA teams aren’t interested in this right now).  If the NCAA has any interest in actually helping its student-athletes make educated decisions, then they’ll admit they flubbed this one and create a more realistic window for kids to get evaluated.  Well, at least they got the important stuff, y’know, like throwing ‘bows, figured out.