Iowa shocked the college basketball world when it easily knocked off #1 Michigan State in Iowa City two weeks ago. For the rematch in East Lansing tonight, the Spartans will be at full strength, with NPOY candidate Denzel Valentine back in the lineup. Most pundits don’t give Iowa much of a chance to pull off the sweep, but let’s take a look at what the Hawkeyes need to do to move to 4-0 in Big Ten play this evening.

Michigan State will have Denzel Valentine back in uniform for its rematch against Iowa. (Jim Rohash, AP)

1. Don’t Let Valentine Break Their Hearts: The senior Big Ten Player of the Year candidate was clearly rusty in his return game against Penn State on Sunday — shooting 4-of-11 from the floor and 1-of-6 from deep in only 23 minutes of action. Iowa did a great job in holding the Spartans in check from the perimeter in the teams’ first meeting (3-of-13 from three-point range), but it will have to do so here with another big-time shooter to worry about. One key will be how Iowa handles Bryn Forbes. The Hawkeyes held the senior to only three points in their late December meeting, but he has since heated back up (13-of-23 from three). Iowa’s three-point defense is nearly as good as Michigan State’s three-point offense, so whichever unit gets the advantage here will hold a key card in which team wins the game. Read the rest of this entry »

It was supposed to happen with the group led by Adreian Payne, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling two seasons ago — that was the team that was supposed to end Tom Izzo‘s four-year Final Four ‘drought.’ Instead, that Michigan State squad lost to Connecticut in the Elite Eight and it was his follow-up group — led by leftovers like Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice — that recovered from a shocking early home loss to Texas Southern to play in the season’s final weekend. Most of that team returns this season, and some high-impact newcomers are also on board. Shouldn’t Izzo’s Spartans be ranked higher to start the season? Isn’t another March run a distinct possibility?

Denzel Valentine will look to lead Michigan State to bigger and better things in his senior season (Getty).

Sparty begins the season ranked #13 in both major polls. It returns eight of its top 10 scorers from last season and adds West Virginia transfer Eron Harris (17.2 PPG in 2013-14) to the mix. The freshman class includes McDonald’s All-American Devonta Davis along with a couple more knockdown shooters in Kyle Ahrens and Matt McQuaid. Perimeter shooting definitely appears to be a major positive for this team. Multiple shooters could hit close to 40 percent from deep, as Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Harris have all reached that benchmark in recent seasons. Sharing the ball is another positive aspect of what should be an elite offense. Michigan State logged the seventh best team assist rate in the nation last year, assisting on 63.7 percent of its field goals. Valentine in particular has shown an ability to find the open man as a point forward, ranking eighth in the Big Ten in assist rate (26.9 percent) last year and cutting down his turnover rate by two percent despite much higher usage. Lourawls “Tum Tum” Nairn also notched an assist rate above 20 percent, and that number should increase if he gets added minutes with the departure of Trice. This could be an elite Spartans’ offense once the season gets rolling. Read the rest of this entry »

Points were relatively easy to come by in the Big Ten’s third weekend of play, as only three teams of the 12 with games failed to crack the 1.00 point per possession plateau. There were also some outstanding individual scoring games on display, with Penn State’s DJ Newbill (37 points) and Minnesota’s Andre Hollins (31 points) leading the way in that regard. From a team perspective, Purdue and Indiana got crucial road wins to stay among the top half of the league standings, while Maryland continued its outstanding start by dismantling Michigan State in College Park. Elsewhere, Minnesota is no longer winless in conference action, and Penn State remains the only team still looking for a conference win. Well, at least their freshman guard brings a celebrity cousin to the table.

Melo Trimble torched Michigan State as his team knocked off the Spartans by 15 Saturday. (David J. Philip/AP)

Player of the Weekend: Melo Trimble has had issues at times in knocking down perimeter shots, but he had no such problems against Michigan State on Saturday. The freshman combo guard simply went off, scoring 24 points on 8-on-16 shooting from the field. He also hit six threes, five of which came in the first half. Trimble not only should be considered a c0-favorite with Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, but he’s also making a legitimate case for First Team all-Big Ten consideration. Usually he’s a menace for opposing defenses with his keen ability to get to the free throw line, but he only shot two freebies in this game. Instead, he made nearly every shot from behind the arc that he took in the opening stanza. With Jake Layman scoring 23 himself and with Dez Wells capable of going off in any given game, Maryland is one of the few league teams with three legitimate threats on offense. That’s what makes the Terrapins so dangerous. Nothing I’ve said here can top watching this clip, so take a look for yourself. Rest in peace, Tum Tum.

Super Sub of the Weekend: AJ Hammons might win this award multiple times if Purdue keeps winning weekend games. The junior posted his second double-double in the last four games (and his third on the season) with 21 points and 12 rebounds against Penn State on Saturday. While those numbers are nice and all, the biggest takeaway from his effort was that his hustle essentially gave Purdue the opportunity to win the game in overtime. During the game the broadcasters raved about the game-tying three that Kendall Stephens made in the final seconds, but it was Hammons who spun through two Penn State defenders to somehow tip the ball on a missed free throw out to him so he could take the shot in the first place. It’s not a play he would have made in his first two seasons as a Boilermaker, but it shows how far he’s come. You don’t see it all statistically, but if you watch Purdue extensively, you can see all of the subtle improvements he’s made in his productiveness.

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Eleven Big Ten Teams will make their season debuts tonight. While the only true marquee game on the schedule is the Minnesota-Louisville clash in Puerto Rico, here are three things to watch for if you’re checking out the league as the season begins.

• Hampton vs. Iowa: Hampton went 18-13 last year, and the Pirates hung with Penn State in the first round of the CBI before ultimately losing by four points. They return eight players from their top 10 in minutes played for a team that ran at the 11th-fastest tempo in the country last season. They did a tremendous job in blocking shots and holding teams to a low percentage on two-point attempts, and have good front line size to match up with the Hawkeyes on the interior. Iowa no longer has Roy Devyn Marble to handle the ball and take all of its big shots, so Mike Gesell and Josh Oglesby will have to be hitting from long range because points in the paint will not be easy to find. This game bears watching because it will be a track meet up and down the court, and because there is also some small upset potential here if Iowa doesn’t come to play.

Mike Geselll will have to take care of the ball Friday night against Hampton. (Getty)

• Michigan State vs. Navy: The Midshipmen went 9-21 last year, so thinking that they will push Sparty tonight might be something of a stretch. But they do return almost everybody from that team, and they did a solid job forcing turnovers last season. Michigan State, of course, has a new floor general, and although Travis Trice has gotten plenty of reps in his three years in East Lansing, he’s never been the guy. Denzel Valentine has a tendency to cough up the ball on occasion, and Lourawls Nairn will be making his much-anticipated collegiate debut. Keep an eye on whether Michigan State can avoid making silly mistakes here. A sloppy effort against a clearly inferior opponent might be a bad sign as the team gets set to take on Duke in the Champions Classic in four days.
• Minnesota vs. Louisville: This game is the obvious call if you’re looking for opening night intrigue. Minnesota has an early chance to grab a huge non-conference win by playing a top 10 team. Richard Pitino will coach against his dad, who probably knows the Gophers about as well as his son does. Richard, of course, served as an assistant at Louisville just a few seasons ago, so the same likely holds true with the younger Pitino’s knowledge about the Cardinals. If you like guard play, you will get a chance to watch Andre Hollins and Deandre Mathieu take on Chris Jones and Terry Rozier. If the battle in the post is more your cup of tea, then check out Elliott Eliason and Maurice Walker trading haymakers with potential All-American Montrezl Harrell. This one sells itself.

Michigan State lost a lot of talent from last year’s Elite Eight team. Gary Harris and Adreian Payne both heard their names called in the first round of the NBA Draft. Kenny Kaminski had one offcourt problem too many and therefore transferred to Ohio University. Keith Appling also left town, going undrafted after a senior year marred by injuries. As far as replacements, the Spartans ended up with only the 32nd best incoming recruiting class, per ESPN.com. But all is not lost in East Lansing, however, as returnees Branden Dawson and Denzel Valentine are much of the reason Sparty has been slotted into the preseason Top 25 polls. But the success of the season may hinge on Appling’s replacement, Travis Trice, who is expected to take over the majority of the minutes at the lead guard spot and appears that he’ll be a more than capable substitute.

Travis Trice has to play a bigger role for Michigan State to make another run at the B1G title.(Leon Haiip, Getty Images)

Trice should not be unfamiliar to Big Ten fans, as he enters his senior year having played no fewer than 34.9 percent of the available minutes in his three-year career. He started eight games last season, ranking 16th in the league with an assist rate of 18.8 percent. He also held a dazzling assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.3 to 1 (slightly better than Appling’s mark of 2.1 to 1). The Spartans were 6-2 in the games where he started, made possible in no small part by his averages of 9.3 PPG and 3.6 APG on sizzling 18-for-35 shooting from behind the arc. By the end of the season, over the Spartans’ last five games, Michigan State used a lineup that featured Appling and Trice on the floor at the same time 18.3 percent of the time, per kenpom.com, showing that Tom Izzo had developed great trust in Trice’s presence on the floor. These facts are not meant to bash Appling for the solid four years he gave to Michigan State; it’s only to show that Trice can handle a greater share of the responsibility, even if he’s necessarily more of a focus on opposing scouting reports this time around. Appling understandably struggled playing through pain last year, and it seemed as though dwindling confidence in what his body could do played a significant role in his lack of production down the stretch. Trice has struggled with various maladies throughout his career as well, so the obvious caveat with his pending role in the spotlight is of course staying healthy.

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