1. Just five years after helping UNC to a NCAA title, Rashad McCants, who was the 14th overall pick in the 2005 NBA Draft, is out of the NBA and struggling to find a way back in. McCants averaged a very respectable 14.9 PPG on 45% FG in his 3rd year in the NBA, but quickly fell out of favor with his coaches and now has a toxic reputation across the NBA. The Cavs offered him a shot on a Summer League, but McCants did not show up in Las Vegas (scroll to last section) for “personal reasons”.
2. We touched on it briefly on Saturday, but we are still waiting to hear from Notre Dame what they plan to do to Eric Atkins and Tim Abromaitis in response to their arrest on Friday night. Our guess? Nothing more than a few extra suicides at the end of practice.
3. Seth Curry suffered a sprained ankle during one of the loaded S.J.G. Greater NC Pro AM games. It doesn’t seem like it was that significant although Curry sat out the rest of the game. Curry said ”It’s just a little sprain. I’ll be all right. I’ll be back out next week.” The bigger question for us is what Coach K plans to do with his starting backcourt next year as he will have to decide between Curry, Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins. Our guess is that Duke will use 3 guards (with Kyle Singler at the 4 and Miles or Mason Plumlee playing at center) and Smith and Irving are basically guaranteed spots, which means that Coach K will have to decide between Curry and Dawkins as the first player off the bench. The problems of the rich…
4. While his predecessor Oliver Purnell has been busy making news at his new job at DePaul, Brad Brownell, who won 20 or more games in all four of his seasons at Wright State (no Duke or UNC on the schedule though), has been trying to get a hold of the program that Purnell built at Clemson. While the Clemson faithful were undoubtedly frustrated with the fast starts followed by what seemed like annual collapses, Purnell did build them into a solid ACC team that made three straight NCAA Tournament trips and made Littlejohn Coliseum a place that opponents dreaded coming to every year. Brownell has a solid group of players left behind by Purnell, but will have to deal with the loss of All-ACC Trevor Booker to the NBA.
5. Last month we mentioned the decision of Carrick Felix to back out of a commitment to be the first junior college recruit to commit to Duke, opting to go to Arizona State instead. Recently he sat down for an interview where he talked about the decision and, although he does not go into the specifics (we did not expect him to, either), he says that he went to Duke because that was where everyone said he should go, but it did not feel right so he went to the Duke coaches who then helped him find the right school.

For the entire 20 At The Top series, click here.

Over the next six Fridays this summer, I’ll have the honor of taking you through the top 20 players in each major conference in college basketball. The list is a combination of many factors:  production, expectations, ceiling, skill set, statistics, efficiency, basically anything under the sun that a college basketball fan like myself obsesses over during the dog days of summer. Hopefully healthy debate is opened up in the comments section. Without further ado, here’s my ACC edition:

1) Kyle Singler, Duke — Singler will top many prognosticators’ preseason national player of the year rankings, and his decision to return for a senior campaign at Duke instantly vaulted the Blue Devils to repeat-or-bust expectations. With a more guard-oriented transition attack planned for Duke this season, Singler will only see his scoring opportunities skyrocket and he’ll be the centerpiece of what should be a ferocious offensive attack. He’s a tremendous competitor, can make shots in spurts and will have another full season at the collegiate level to adjust to the small forward position.

2) Harrison Barnes, North Carolina — Barnes seemingly has no flaws on the basketball court and has the potential to make the type of impact Evan Turner had on Ohio State during what will be Barnes’ one and only season in Chapel Hill. He’s the favorite to go #1 overall in the 2011 Draft — a silky smooth shooter with a confident mid-range game and a fantastic attitude/basketball IQ to boot. Barnes will have to deal with the unparalleled expectations of resurrecting one of the premier programs in the sport.

3) Nolan Smith, Duke — Smith has come a long way since being demoted to the bench in favor of Elliot Williams midway through his sophomore season. If anything, Smith will prove even more lethal this season playing alongside Kyrie Irving in a transition attack and Kyle Singler on the wing. He could top 40% with his three-point shooting and is also the type of poised floor leader that Coach K adores. He’s an undersized 2-guard at 6’2, but played the position last year when Jon Scheyer ran the offense and it didn’t seem to deter Duke come March.

4) Kyrie Irving, Duke — Irving is the truest and most refined point guard at his age that scouts have seen in years. The biggest Duke recruit since the Paulus/McRoberts combo entered Durham, Irving immediately has the responsibility of running the offense of the defending national champs. Blessed with innate court vision and basketball IQ, Irving can also score in bunches, thrives in transition and is especially productive in a pick-and-roll game. Think a reincarnation of Jay Williams, although Irving will only be around for one season.

5) Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech — Delaney enters the season as the hands down favorite to win the ACC scoring title. The combo guard is comfortable both slashing to the basket and shooting threes, although we’ve seen his outside shooting numbers plummet the last two seasons in Blacksburg. The main reason Delaney went off for 12 25+ point performances during his junior year is an incredible ability to get to the free throw line (32^nd in nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes) where he knocks down 85% of his freebies.

6) C.J. Leslie, NC State — Leslie surprised the college basketball world when he spurned John Calipari and decided to save Sidney Lowe’s job in Raleigh. He instantly becomes the best player on an intriguing Wolfpack squad that will look to climb out of the ACC cellar. Leslie is insanely skilled and loves to run where he can show off his athleticism. The perimeter shot needs work and Leslie tends to lose focus, but Lowe reeled in a special talent with a very high ceiling.

7) Chris Singleton, Florida State — Singleton has all of the physical gifts and athletic ability to dominate and should transition to the next level as a 6’8 small forward with the wingspan to defend power forwards. As for the college game, it remains boom-or-bust for Leonard Hamilton’s most talented and most frustrating player. As a prime example, Singleton sandwiched 22 and 23 point performances with a two point showing during ACC play last season. Free throw shooting and a mid-range game also need improvement.

8) Mason Plumlee, Duke — With Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas moving on, the younger Plumlee brother should have more room to shine as the primary option in a somewhat thin Duke frontcourt. The jury’s out on whether he can match the rebounding and toughness that Zoubek provided, but the athletic spurts that Plumlee showed last season lead me to believe he can become deadly on the boards. He does have considerable development in terms of a low-post offensive game.

9) Tracy Smith, NC State — Smith flew way under the radar last season on a downtrodden NC State team, but should see more publicity this winter with an improved supporting cast. Smith scored in double figures in all but two games during his breakout junior campaign in which he averaged 17/7 as the centerpiece of any opposition’s game plan. Now aided by C.J. Leslie, Ryan Harrow and Lorenzo Brown, Smith has the chance to enter the vernacular of more casual college basketball fans.

10) Tyler Zeller, North Carolina — A near-seven footer with a smooth mid-range jumper, Zeller just needs to stay healthy for a full season to maximize his potential. Extend Zeller’s stats from last season per 35 minutes and he was a near double-double performer. Zeller and incoming frosh Barnes could create some serious matchup problems for ACC competition.

11) Durand Scott, Miami — Scott was a hyped freshman out of Rice High in New York City when he entered Coral Gables and his first year was certainly a learning experience. Scott struggled out of the gate but his Hurricanes marched to the ACC semifinal before falling to Duke by three. Scott scored in double figures eight of his last nine games (including 20+ games vs. Duke and Carolina) and will look to carry that momentum, along with considerable upside and room to grow, into the 2010-11 season.

12) John Henson, North Carolina — Henson has the chance to really break out this season. He looked completely overmatched for most of what was undoubtedly a disappointing freshman campaign, but coach Roy Williams saw him making strides during Carolina’s NIT run. A lanky four who can run the floor, Henson just needs to add bulk. He has the wingspan and instincts to be a superior defender eventually.

13) Joe Trapani, Boston College — The former Vermont standout should mold into the most reliable offensive weapon for BC during his last go-round at the Heights. Trapani can push and shove with the big bodies down low or step outside and consistently drain a mid-range or three point jumper. I could see Trapani and Reggie Jackson working well together in what BC hopes is a more fruitful season under new coach Steve Donahue.

14) Reggie Bullock, North Carolina- — You know that Carolina must have a pretty special recruiting coup when the #2 shooting guard in the entire class (according to Scout) is flying well under the radar. Along with Barnes, Bullock has an excellent chance to start immediately for the Heels. His three-point range is simply off the charts and he may instantly be the deadliest shooter in the ACC. Add some strength and more confidence going to the rim and Bullock could become special in Carolina blue.

15) Dorenzo Hudson, Virginia Tech — Much like Scott, Hudson really came on consistently during the latter half of the ACC slate. Overall, he upped his scoring average nearly 11 points and his FG% by over 7% last season, giving coach Seth Greenberg more than one option for his Hokie attack. His signature performance came against Seton Hall: 9/22 FG, 20/21 FT, 3/7 3pt, 41 points. Key on Delaney and Hudson will make you pay.

16) Jordan Williams, Maryland — One of my soon-to-be household names from last Friday’s column, Williams instantly transforms from role player beside Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes to the number one scoring option in College Park alongside Sean Mosley. After averaging a near double-double last season in his freshman year — including 15/11 against Duke and 21/17 in their NCAA Tournament win over Houston — my money’s on Williams being able to carry the load both scoring and on the glass.

17) Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech — Shumpert is now Paul Hewitt’s go-to player with Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors both departed. He should be able to play more freely without having to worry about touches for the Tech big men. Shumpert has been a bit of an enigma during his time in Atlanta — his assist totals actually went down last season despite playing with loads of talent — but this winter could be when he figures it out.

18) Seth Curry, Duke — The rich get richer. Curry scored over 20 a game at Liberty as a freshman and will come off the bench for the guard-heavy Blue Devils this season. He’s got a chance to become a game-changer and could see crunch time minutes if Duke elects to play small. Curry doesn’t quite have the outside shot of his older brother, but it’s still more than acceptable and Curry has international experience playing with the best.

19) Demontez Stitt, Clemson — Stitt vastly improved his floor game as the lead guard of a fierce Clemson attack last season. At 45/78/39, Stitt is efficient and dependable. The jury’s out on how he adjusts to new coach Brad Brownell’s slower offensive mentality during his senior campaign.

20) Reggie Jackson, Boston College — Evaluators are enamored with Jackson’s raw athleticism, but can he harness his abilities and become a consistent force for BC? Jackson will convert an earth-shattering dunk ,then on the next possession make a head-scratching turnover.  His three-point shot is improving and Jackson does possess the quickness to burst to the rim. He has the potential to become a special piece on an Eagles squad that could be sitting on the bubble this season.

Also considered: Corey Raji (Boston College), Andre Young (Clemson), Michael Snaer (Florida State), Ian Miller (Florida State), Sean Mosley (Maryland), Mychal Parker (Maryland), Malcolm Grant (Miami), Will Graves (North Carolina), Larry Drew II (North Carolina), Ryan Harrow (NC State), Mike Scott (Virginia), Sammy Zeglinski (Virginia), Jeff Jones (Virginia), Jeff Allen (Virginia Tech), C.J. Harris (Wake Forest).

1. The pickings are getting a little lean on the NBA Draft front, as Louisville’s Samardo Samuels, Oklahoma’s Tiny Gallon and Nevada’s Luke Babbitt all declared yesterday.  Babbitt has the best shot at becoming a first rounder, as Gallon and Samuels are not considered by most experts to be in that range.  By our count, these three players make a total of 62 early entries for thirty guaranteed first round spots in the June 24 NBA Draft.  Although the May 8 withdrawal deadline is a complete and utter joke, we hope that many of these players will find the proper counsel needed to make an informed decision about their realistic prospects.
2. This situation involving the new women’s head coach at Missouri could get interesting.
3. The three reasons that Kyle Singler decided to buck the trend and return to school despite being a guaranteed first round pick?  1) Duke; 2) improvement; 3) his senior year.  If he played anywhere other than Duke, everyone would be holding this kid up as everything that’s great about college basketball.
4. Keep an ear to any choice quotes coming from Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney today, as he will be holding a press conference in Arizona as part of the annual BCS meetings.  Question we’d pay a reporter to ask: why, sir, must you and your ilk try to ruin everything?
5. Butler’s Brad Stevens will throw out the ceremonial first pitch for the Chicago Cubs’ May 10 game against the Florida Marlins, and as if that weren’t enough, he’ll also lead the crowd in the singing of Take Me Out to the Ballgame during the 7th inning stretch.  Afterward, Stevens will save a kitten from a tree outside the stadium and offer a homeless man a job.  Seriously, though, good for him so long as he does a little better with the pitch than the Prez did…

Singler Will Be the Top Returnee in America Next Year

Regardless of what Alabi decides, Duke is in tremendous position to defend its title next year.  The Devils lose three regular seniors from its national championship team — Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek — but their replacements are just as talented if not more so in the forms of Kyrie Irving/Seth Curry and the Miles/Mason Plumlee brothers.  The irreplaceable wildcard was always going to be the versatile Singler, but with his return to the Duke lineup Coach K’s team will undoubtedly enter 2010-11 as the #1 team in America with a very good chance at repeating next April.  The team will upgrade its athleticism at the guard positions and among the bigs, and so long as Coach K can find ways to feed and channel the intensity of the Plumlees in the same way as it worked with Zoubek this spring, Duke will be once again be on the grand stage for all of America to hate.  Maybe if we’re really lucky Singler will all of a sudden start attracting random teenage fangirls, begin referring to himself in the third person and use opportune moments during NCAA Tournament games to step on other players’ chests.  If we’re lucky.

Seriously, though, it’s funny how college basketball works sometimes.  Two years ago we had major cognitive dissonance believing that Singler had been considered the equal of UCLA’s Kevin Love when the two were doing battle back in the Oregon high school prep ranks throughout the mid-2000s.  Yet here we sit in 2010 and it is Singler, not Love, who has the chance to make college basketball history with repeat national titles.  We’re certainly not implying that makes him better than Love either then or now, but it’s well beyond what we thought we were getting when the blonde forward came out of Medford three years ago.  And it just goes to show that sometimes it’s better in college basketball to have a stable of pretty-darn-good players who stick around three or four years rather than sicknasty players who you can only keep on campus for one.

Welcome to Indy!

Coach K is the Current Dean of Coaches.  But let’s get one thing put to rest right away.  He’s not John Wooden.  For all you presentists out there convinced that the era we’re currently in is tougher than any other previous one, get your head out of your sphincter.  Make all the excuses you want, but Wooden beat all comers west AND east, year after year after year after year (ten times in twelve seasons).  We could go on and on about this, and if the numbers were anywhere near each other (like if K had eight titles to Wooden’s ten), we’d entertain the argument.  But they’re not, and Coach K would probably be the first to chastise you of such foolishness.  Now, with that said, Krzyzewski is a clear #2 all-time with his most recent title.  Tom Izzo came into the Final Four with everyone gushing about his six appearances in the last twelve years, but it’s K who has done it better for longer, now with eleven F4s and four national championships to his credit.  Whenever he decides to retire, and there’s a good chance it won’t be for another decade, Coach K will have far surpassed the man whom he set his eyes on as a target way back in the early 80s — UNC demigod Dean Smith.  What seemed like a herculean impossibility at that time ultimately came to pass, as Coach K is now the Dean of Tobacco Road and the Smith family tree of he and Roy Williams must combine championships at UNC to simply match those of K (something undoubtedly not lost on Williams in his lair at this very moment).  Furthermore, Krzyzewski proved with this year’s team that he doesn’t have to have better talent than everyone else to cut down the nets — his other championship teams were stacked to the brim with future pros, but it will ultimately be the 2010 national titleist that raises his legacy from one of the coach with the best talent to one of the talent with the best coach.

K: Best in the Business

Greatest Title Game Ever? Had Gordon Hayward’s half-court shot found net, we’d be on board with this.  The storyline is just too good.  Even better than Villanova taking down big, bad Georgetown in ’85 or NC State’s miracle of miracles two years earlier.  The Jimmy Chitwood/Bobby Plump comparisons would have been endless, and we’re a little more than halfway convinced that we’d have seen our first-ever title game RTC should the ball have gone through.  Unfortunately for most of America, like many life-story endings awkwardly forced into a Hollywood template, reality leaves you waiting for the next moment that never comes – the Hayward shot didn’t magically bounce up in the air and fall back through…  The truth is that the national championship game was a hard-nosed, calculating, defensive-minded drama between two teams where every single point came with a price tag.  But it wasn’t beautiful, and in order to have greatness bestowed upon a game, it usually needs to end with a make rather than a miss.  This is not always the case, but it’s difficult to buy into the GOAT argument when the last made field goal occurred with just under a minute remaining (as a comparison, the widely-accepted greatest game of all-time, 1992 Duke-Kentucky, had five lead changes in the last 35 seconds of overtime).  So where does it rank?  Still pretty high — for our money, this was the best championship game since 1999 UConn vs. Duke (yes, Memphis-Kansas was thrilling, but not for the entire game), and is definitely in the top 6-8 in the post-Wooden era, but let’s keep our wits about us here. 

People Will Come, Ray.  People Will Most Definitely Come. Mixing metaphors between sports, we found it interesting that the Duke-Butler national title game drew the highest television ratings (14.2) for a championship since 2005′s classic between UNC and Illinois.  This amounted to nearly 48 million Americans tuning into the game at some point during the broadcast, which is the highest aggregate total since 1997 (Kentucky vs. Arizona).  Considering that several traditional powerhouses (UNC, UConn, UCLA) weren’t even invited to the Dance, what can we draw from this?  For one, Duke and Cinderella sell, showing again that casual fans do not need marquee stars such as John Wall or Evan Turner to find a reason to watch a compelling collegiate matchup.  To paraphrase Vitale who has crowed about this forever, college basketball really is still about the names on the front of the jerseys rather than the backs, and people clearly enjoyed rooting against Duke and pulling for the unknown kids from Butler on Monday night.  Crazy to consider but probably true, as much as we’d like to think a Kansas-Kentucky final would have been the preferred matchup, it’s doubtful that casual interest for that game would have been as high.  Another thought, given that Tournament ratings were up 5% across the board this year, is to realize just how important opening weekend buzz is for the shelf life of the Tourney.  If there are no great finishes and upsets, then many casual viewers are lost early, never to return.  This is something that the NCAA should consider very carefully when making a determination on whether two days of expanded first round #9 vs. #24 games are good enough theater for the interst of casual fans.  To someone tuning in only for March Madness, it doesn’t mean anything to him if #9 UNLV loses to #24 Morgan State, but he easily recognizes the gravity if that same #9 UNLV team beats a #1 seeded Kansas two rounds later.  Put in terms the organization can understand better, what does the NCAA stand to lose by moving the Round of 32 to a random Tuesday/Wednesday when many of the biggest and best upsets happen (see: Northern Iowa over Kansas and St. Mary’s over Villanova)?  Will those March-only fans still be as interested at that point or will fatigue of four days of early-round games have already set in by the time the best matchups occur?  We think that these are the hard questions that the NCAA needs to ask itself and be sure about its answers before moving forward with expansion.

Huggins Consoling His Star Player (AP/D. Cummings)

Da’Sean Butler’s ACL Injury.  Butler’s ACL injury on Saturday night was a truly heart-wrenching moment for the charismatic forward who represented so much of the hard work, toughness and swagger that Bob Huggins has brought to Morgantown.  But it also brings up as a bitter reminder the reason that many players who are projected as first rounders in the upcoming NBA Draft need to give it a long, hard look.  Let’s be clear — Butler was never going to be a lottery pick in the eyes of the scouts, so it’s not as if he personally turned away guaranteed millions in previous summers, but the lesson learned is that as much as we hope and want players like Kyle Singler, Gordon Hayward and others to consider staying in a college uniform for another year or two, a single play like the one Butler suffered in the national semifinal can severely damage a player’s livelihood.  As an example of the devastating impact of a knee injury, Butler went from a probable late first rounder to a possible second rounder as a result, and you really hate to see it in the case of a player who did everything the right way throughout his college career.  If we know anything about the character and moxie of this particular player, though, we expect we’ll see him work his way up through the NBDL into the NBA a year or two from now. 

Next Year For These Four.  If Kyle Singler and Gordan Hayward stick around, it’s safe to say that both Duke and Butler are going to be even more loaded than this year.  The defending champs will add superstar point guard Kyrie Irving to replace Jon Scheyer and Seth Curry will become eligible after his transfer year.  You’d expect that the Plumlees will be able to provide what Brian Zoubek did for the team this year, and of course Coach K is still over there on the sidelines.  Butler keeps everyone except Willie Veasley and Avery Jukes (who was so clutch in the first half on Monday night), but the biggest question mark for the Bulldogs is what, if anything, Brad Stevens will do.  If he sticks around, Hayward probably will also, and the Bulldogs will enter 2010-11 as a top five team.  As for Michigan State and West Virginia, it’s the Spartans who are in greater shape for next season, losing only Raymar Morgan and keeping everyone else of consequence.  Don’t be surprised when MSU loses a few early games and everyone forgets about them by March, only to see Izzo put it together again for yet another Final Four run next season — the talent is there.  WVU is another team with a significant amount of production returning, as Bob Huggins loses only Da’Sean Butler and Wellington Smith from a team that you know will defend and rebound their way to another solid campaign.  After most seasons, you expect to see a bunch of Final Four players jumping ship to the NBA, but in this year’s star-less event, each of these teams could come back as good or better than they were in the 2009-10 season. 

The Dream Seemed Possible (Indy Star/S. Riche)

To the consternation of screenwriters, the assembled media, neutral fans, the entire Hoosier State, underdogs everywhere, and advertisers calculating their future CBS promos – pretty much everybody except Duke fans – it did.  The ball hit the backboard, caromed onto the rim and popped off the front of it a little too hard, securing Duke’s fourth national championship in the last twenty seasons.  It wasn’t supposed to end that way, said the storybook tellers.  The tiny school from a few miles north of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis was supposed to give us the timeless Hoosiers story in modern form — with Gordon Hayward taking the role of history’s Bobby Plump and the Butler Bulldogs channeling Milan High.  Instead, in a brutal reminder that real life isn’t Hollywood and history doesn’t often repeat itself, it was an old familiar face and and name who were left standing tall at the end of this night — Coach K and his Blue Devils.

As has been written numerous times in the lead-up to the Final Four and championship game, Duke may be the Evil Empire in the eyes of most college basketball fans, but this particular group of Blue Devils is eminently likable.  Looking back at some of Krzyzewski’s more vitriol-inspiring teams, the 2009-10 national champion lacks an identifiable villain embracing his role as a coldblooded assassin such as Christian Laettner; there is no impossibly accomplished athlete-cum-scholar like Shane Battier on the roster; and the only people on the team who inspire a wipe-that-smug-off-your-face response in fans are assistant coaches Steve Wojciechowski and Chris Collins.  The players themselves engender no such particular hatred.

Gotta Give Him His Due (Indy Star/S. Riche)

No, the only possible element of the 2009-10 Duke Blue Devils is the Darth Vader of Hoops himself, Mike Krzyzewski.  Fans love to hate the man who has now surpassed his mentor Bobby Knight with the most titles in the post-Wooden era, and it’s in no small part because of his sustained success over three decades of college basketball.  This site in particular has been very critical of Coach K’s recruiting strategy of the last half-decade or so, largely eschewing one-and-done type of players in favor of the three and four-year ones who develop over time from very good ball players to great ones.  We didn’t think that his plan of focusing on those next-level recruits like Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and so on without the assistance of an elite NBA talent or two could result in a national championship.  We were wrong.

And we were wrong because of Coach K’s brilliance as a sideline tactician and his ability to learn from personnel mistakes over time.  There’s been a laundry list of big men in the post-Boozer era who have come to Duke and never amounted to much more than window dressing as K highlighted his perimeter attack — Michael Thompson, Josh McRoberts, Jamal Boykin, Olek Czyz, etc. — but his decision to stick with Brian Zoubek in the post this year despite three previous seasons of largely inconsistent play turned this team’s greatest weakness into a strength.  While the bulk of the Devils offense still came from the perimeter, the interior defense and rebounding (esp. second chances) that Zoubek provided was an element that the team hadn’t seen since The Landlord was patrolling the paint in the mid-2000s.

Zoubek's Toughness Helped Duke Win the Title (Indy Star/S. Riche)

From our view, this was the difference in not only Duke’s season but also last night’s game.  According to the stat-keepers, Zoubek blocked two shots but his presence was felt on numerous others as the Bulldog players had trouble finishing layup attempts in the lane all night long.  His 7’1 reach was especially important in forcing Gordon Hayward’s potential game-winning fadeaway to hit the rim an inch long, and his six offensive rebounds resulted in seven additional points for his team.  In a game as close as this one, it’s very easy to see his importance.  In previous years, it’s unlikely that without Zoubek inside that the stable of Duke perimeter defenders would have been able to keep an offensively efficient team like Butler to a mere 34.5% shooting, one of their worst showings of the season.

It’s not likely that this particular Duke team will weather well in terms of historical significance, but because of that fact it may have represented one of Coach K’s greatest coaching achievements while cementing his place as the second-best coach of all-time.  His three other champions were loaded to the gills with NBA talent, while it’s difficult to envision anyone other than Kyle Singler on the 2010 champs getting much of a look at the next level (and let’s be honest: Singler is nowhere near as talented as any of Williams/Battier/Boozer or Hurley/Hill/Laettner on the other Duke title teams).  With the bulk of his team likely to be back in Durham next year and a couple of stud recruits joining the team, Coach K will have a good shot at moving past Kentucky’s Rupp with the second-most titles from a single coach and make a run at tying bitter rival UNC with a total of five national championships.  At age 63, you have to figure that K will have several more good chances to get there in the next decade.

Duke (Patrick Sellars)

• A huge part of Duke’s NCAA tournament run can be attributed to center Brian Zoubek. Zoubek is finally playing to his potential and he provides mismatches in the post for Coach K to work with.
• According to The New York Times Singler vs. Hayward is the matchup to watch in the national title game. Both play a very similar style, and their play usually determines who wins the game.
• In order to beat Duke, Butler has to shoot the ball well from behind the arc. So the Blue Devils will try to contain Butler from three-point range.
• The three-headed monster for Duke (Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and Singler) actually out-scored West Virginia on their own Saturday night. The three combined for 63 points, while the Mountaineers managed only 57 as a team.
• Nolan Smith is playing for his late father Derek, and he proudly displays a tattoo on his right bicep honoring his dad.

Butler (Andrew Murawa)

• As Butler prepares for the biggest game in its history, a couple injury questions loom large. Junior forward Matt Howard will be a game-time decision on Monday due to the “mildest of mild concussions” but sophomore guard Shelvin Mack will play, despite suffering through food-poisoning and dehydration that limited him to just 25 minutes in the semifinal game.
• While the physical readiness of two of their star players will remain a question mark for the underdogs, the team has shown throughout the season that if one guy is unavailable, the next player in line is ready to make a contribution.
• The Bulldogs have made their living on the defensive side of the ball, but head coach Brad Stevens knows that they’ll need to pick things up offensively to have a chance against Duke.
• Another key will be whether Butler is capable of keeping the Duke bigs off of the offensive glass, a task that could be even more difficult given Howard’s questionable status.
• And, if everything breaks right for the Bulldogs, John Feinstein writes that the “Hoosiers” comparison will be cemented for history.

9:07 PM — #1 Duke vs #5 Butler

The six months since practices started have passed like a dream. As fans of college basketball, we travel this road every year from mid-October to early April. We always know our destination well in advance, we just don’t know who we’re going to find there. Therein lies the beauty of the NCAA Tournament. The entirety of that six months is spent trying to determine one thing: who’s playin’ on Monday night.

What a situation in which we find ourselves at the end of this particular journey. The fates have determined that the answer to the second most important question of the season is, “Butler and Duke.” There’s only one question left, the biggest one of all. All those practices, weightlifting sessions, sprints, miles, interviews, and games for each of these players on those two teams is now distilled down to one query:

What will you do on Monday night?

Hayward can guard anyone on the floor. And probably will. (AP)

You’ll hear this game described in many ways over the next 24 hours. David vs Goliath. Big vs small. Major vs mid-major. And on this day, considered so solemn by so many, you’ll even see it described as Good vs Evil. It’s not entirely true. We’ll acknowledge that it doesn’t get much more Goliath-like, big, or major than Duke. And because of that, no team in the nation is more polarizing. The mere mention of Duke Basketball can divide a room faster than a British Parliament vote. There is no neutrality on this issue among sports fans. One of the reasons so many people dislike the program is because there are so many people who like it. That is, there are countless Duke fans who have no ties to the school and would struggle to find Durham, North Carolina on a map, but defend their Duke fandom and their right to it as if they were sixth-generation alumni. On the other side, there are those who condemn Duke simply for being in a big conference and having a lot of money to spend on their athletes and the program in general. We prefer to keep the morality issues out of it and stick to basketball, but consider this: before the money and the officially unaffiliated fans will come, there has to be winning. You don’t — or shouldn’t, in a perfect world — gain such things from losing.

Butler, interestingly — because they represent everything that’s said to be the David, the small, the mid-major — has inspired little more than neutrality or apathy among college basketball followers. Yet, on this day more than any other in their history, they find themselves with legions of new fans, most of them with no ties to the school or the program. And it’s not because they, too, have developed a culture of basketball excellence that existed long before Saturday night. It’s not because of the quiet, unassuming, humble man who leads them, known more for looking less than his age than for his ability to coach beyond it. It’s not because of the 25-game winning streak. It’s not because of this NCAA Tournament run, or the Final Four. There are many reasons to be a Butler fan, and there are better ones than the ones I’ve listed. Butler’s new fans have not arrived for any of these reasons. Why do they exist? Because of who Butler plays on Monday night.

Coolest customer in the game? His players think so.

As for the game itself, there’s little that can be said about these teams that hasn’t been said. Butler knows that job one is to somehow put a dent in the Big Three, but they can’t forget about the Other Two. Brian “Don’t Call Him Greg” Zoubek has shown that he’s not just a “serviceable” big man and a space-filler. He’s found his niche as a rebounder and you can see him improve at it each game. He’s also become one of the best in the nation at moving the ball from the post to the hands of an open three-point shooter. Wonder why Duke seems to get more wide open three-point shots than other teams? Watch where the pass came from. Lance Thomas can go on game-turning rebounding runs and is begging the Bulldogs to forget about him. The Big Three are massive, but the Other Two — along with the physical play of the Brothers Plumlee — can bury you by a different route. Part of The Krzyzewski Way is that he brings in kids whom he knows he can get to embrace these allegedly lesser roles.

Butler will change exactly nothing as part of their mission to dilute the Big Three. By now, their defense is famous and their physicality is not so much sneaky as it is just imposing. Gordon Hayward is a viable defender for either Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith or Kyle Singler (or, to be sure, any Duke player except for Zoubek), and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him guard all three of them over the course of the night. The only scenario in which we see Matt Howard not playing is if he’s actually lassoed by a neurologist, but the story here is how Butler has learned how to play without him as the year progressed. Avery Jukes has had a lot to do with that. Indeed, the Howard-Jukes “secondary” defensive effort on whomever they’re assigned should have a major impact on this game.

The most intriguing aspect of this game might not even take place within the lines, but rather just to the side of them. Mike Krzyzewski has seen this movie. Hell, he’s STARRED in this movie several times. Brad Stevens obviously hasn’t, but from looking at him, you’d think that if a fault line opened up right under Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday night, he’d just maintain expression, shrug his shoulders, and calmly start helping people out of the craggy abyss. He’s unflappable, to say the least. If he’s intimidated, he won’t show it, and sometimes that’s enough. We can’t wait, though, to see what Krzyzewski’s concocted in order to poke holes in that steely Butler defense, and we can’t wait to see how Stevens responds, and what defensve assignments he makes to start.

The Skinny: To make a prediction seems insulting to these teams, but we won’t stop now. There are no two teams in the nation who execute what’s in their coaches’ heads better than these two. Brad Stevens knows that beating Duke is a two-pronged proposition: you’ve got to guard the three, and you’ve got to own the glass. If there’s one team that can match up with Duke in that way, it’s Butler. Butler closes out on threes (and sometimes even prevents the catch before the three) better than anyone else, so Bulldog fans should have no fear, there. That leaves the question of rebounding. Our feeling is that Duke, with as many as three players dedicated almost solely to this task on that team, will be too tough on the glass. In another phenomenal basketball game, we predict Duke to win. We predict that Mike Krzyzewski will earn his fourth national championship, tying him with Adolph Rupp, leaving only John Wooden to overcome, if such a thing is really possible. Butler will always be the story of this tournament and this Final Four. But we think Duke will be it’s champion.

]]> http://rushthecourt.net/2010/04/04/national-championship-game-analysis/feed/ 0 http://rushthecourt.net/2010/04/02/final-four-game-analysis/ http://rushthecourt.net/2010/04/02/final-four-game-analysis/#comments Sat, 03 Apr 2010 00:31:36 +0000 rtmsf http://rushthecourt.net/?p=21103 RTC will break down the Final Four games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses.  Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds.  Here are Saturday evening’s national semifinals…aka…THE FINAL FOUR!

6:07 pm – #5 Michigan State vs. #5 Butler The winner of this game will have a built-in motivational mechanism, since this game is popularly considered the “Who will lose to West Virginia or Duke on Monday?” game.  Best be careful, because as we know, there’s almost no better way to get your guys ready to play than to tell them that it’s them against the world.  That nobody respects them.  That everyone expects them to lose and lose big.  In the case of Butler, I know I wouldn’t want to face a team playing in their home city and with that motivational tool.  A lot is being made of the home crowd advantage that Butler supposed to enjoy this weekend, but I ask you: because people love the storyline of a mid-major getting to the Final Four, in what city could you play this thing where Butler wouldn’t have most of the fans in the arena rooting for them?  I’ll tell you — East Lansing, Durham, and Morgantown (or anywhere else in West Virginia).  Well, we’re not in any of those towns.  Let me just add this…walking around this downtown area, I see mostly Butler fans, which is understandable.  But it’s not like the Duke, Michigan State, and West Virginia fans stayed home.  It’s Lucas Oil Stadium, people.  It seats over 70,000 (it must, to qualify to host this thing).  The freakin’ Colts play here.  The Butler cheers might be loud, but the other squads will have their supporters, too.  As to what’s going to happen on the floor, watch the boards.  This will be a rebounding battle for the ages, because it’s the biggest disparity between the two teams.  It’s not something Butler does particularly well, and it’s Michigan State’s greatest strength.  Brad Stevens knows his boys have to swarm the glass to have a chance.  They’ve done everything else he’s asked of them in each tournament game, not to mention the rest of the season, and I wouldn’t doubt that you’ll see them turn in their biggest effort on the boards this whole year on Saturday evening. Can Butler do it but still stay out of foul trouble?

We only picked against you three times, Coach Izzo. And we're sorry. (AP/Al Goldis)

What you’ll also see in this game are two of the most efficient basketball teams in the country.  Butler might be a little more famous for it, but the Spartans can match them.  It’s a strange delight to watch two teams that excel at that aspect of the game; you’ve got perfect offensive sets, multiple players moving without the basketball, screens, rolls, back door cuts, great interior passing, scores on almost every possession, and exemplary shooting…and yet you’ll look at the scoreboard and be flummoxed to find that both teams have combined for only about 80 points with five minutes left.  This game gives us two of the best at this.  Butler will not back down from a physical battle.  Of any ranked team this year, the ‘Dawgs are one of the most bullying — they’re just really sneaky about it (except Matt Howard).  They don’t just turn and look at the rim; they box out, hard.  They don’t just give up position down low; they’re right at home in wrestling with you on the block; they don’t just let guys cut through the lane without letting the cutters feel it.  And most impressively, they don’t stand on defense; they — gasp! — get down in a defensive stance and play guys tight in the backcourt.  The individual matchups are even remarkably appealing on paper — Korie Lucious and Durrell Summers vs Shelvin Mack and Willie Veasley, Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward vs Raymar Morgan and Draymond Green (and Delvon Roe).  It’s going to be a pleasure to watch.

The Skinny:  To make a prediction seems like an insult to one of these teams, and that’s tough to do, having enjoyed them both all season.  We’ve picked against Tom Izzo and his Spartans in all but one of their tournament games this time around, and look where that’s gotten us.  Our readers in the MSU camp probably wish we’d do it again, but we can’t do that.  High-scoring, low-scoring…who cares?  What fun it will be.  If we have to go on the record, though, we’ve learned our lesson, Spartan fans.  Trusting Butler doesn’t go on a three-point barrage early behind Mack, Hayward, and Zach Hahn, we’ll take Michigan State to pull away with about three minutes left as the Bulldogs’ foul trouble takes its toll.  Now you know why we’re not telling any of these Indianapolis people where we’re staying.

Will they remember? We think...yes.

8:37 pm – #1 Duke vs. #2 West Virginia.  This semifinal has been touted as the de facto national title game by some media members. While we don’t agree with that assessment we do agree that the winner will be a pretty heavy favorite heading into Monday night. The Mountaineers come into this game as slight underdogs, but after their performance against Kentucky last weekend most analysts would probably consider this game a toss-up. Even though West Virginia comes into this game as the lower seed and underdog, they will not be the ones with chips on their shoulders. That distinction belongs to the Duke Blue Devils, who lost to West Virginia two years ago and then were mocked in the post-game comments by several Mountaineer players. It was one thing for the Blue Devils to be mocked by the Mountaineers star Joe Alexander (now with a career 4.2 PPG and 1.8 RPG average as the #8 overall pick in 2008) who, when told by a reporter that eight Duke players had been McDonald’s all-Americans, responded by asking, “Who?”  It was quite another thing to be shown up by little-used (at the time) Mountaineer guard Joe Mazzulla who entered the game by mocking the Duke floor-slap, then proceeded to torch the Blue Devils for 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists prompting Coach K to refer to him as a “mini-Jason Kidd” after the game. And then there was Cam Thoroughman (averaging 1 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 0.5 APG, and 1.4 fouls per game) who, when told that Greg Paulus had been a McDonald’s all-American, replied  ”Oh, my God. Are you kidding?”  While it may seem like a distant memory with all of Duke’s recent NCAA Tournament failures, and while Krzyzewski has downplayed the significance of those comments leading up to this game, we guarantee you that several of Duke’s upperclassmen who played in that game — that is, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, Brian Zoubek, and Lance Thomas – are well-aware of those barbs.

Mazzulla hopes he and his boys have one more upset in them. (Getty/Win McNamee)

This time, West Virginia is more of a known entity, but it still has a defined superstar in Da’Sean Butler and Mazzulla can still fill up a box score (just ask any Kentucky fan about that), and Duke still has a bevy of McDonald’s all-Americans. However that is where the similarities stop. In 2008, Duke was a talented team that was either unwilling or unable to compete on the boards against the Mountaineers getting out-rebounded 45-19 (that’s not a typo). That will not be the case on Saturday night with this Duke team that works as hard in the paint as any team in the country, to which Scott Drew, Ekpe Udoh, and the rest of the Baylor Bears can attest. This time Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones, and Butler will have their hands full underneath the basket with Zoubek, Singler, Thomas, and the Plumlees. While Duke won’t dominate them offensively under the basket like DeMarcus Cousins did, they certainly will compete with the Mountaineers for every rebound and might even hold the rebounding advantage. On the perimeter the game will probably come down to a few key factors: Duke’s shooting from the outside, whether or not Truck Bryant will play, and Duke’s ability to defend Butler. While much of the attention following the Mountaineers’ win was focused on Mazzulla and their great 3-point shooting, the real key to the game was Kentucky’s atrocious shooting from beyond the arc (4-32). Even though Duke lacks the long-range bomber in the mold of Trajan Langdon, Jason Williams, and J.J. Redick, they still manage to shoot 38.5% from 3-point range as a team, so we highly doubt that the Mountaineers will be able to accumulate such a big advantage from the perimeter. On the other end, Duke will need to find a way to contain Butler and quite frankly they don’t have an individual defender who can match-up with him, so they will need to utilize a team-oriented approach to defending him — or hope that Bob Huggins forgets to utilize him for large stretches of the game like Scott Drew did with LaceDarius Dunn in the Elite 8.  Even with Butler’s brilliance, the Mountaineers will need another player to step-up and provide Butler with some support offensively. The question is, which Mountaineer will it be?  Jones, the almost forgotten man on this team?  Ebanks, the potential lottery pick? Mazzulla, the one who has shown up in big games again and again? If the Mountaineers are able to find that secondary scorer, they just might be able to push Coach K’s “title-less” streak to nearly a decade. If they don’t, the Yankees of college basketball could be playing for yet another title on Monday night.

The Skinny:  In the Elite Eight, Kentucky couldn’t hit a shot from outside to save their season. West Virginia won’t be so fortunate on Saturday, as Singler, Scheyer, and Smith will find a way to hit from the outside. Even if one of them has an off night, the other two should be enough to push Duke over the top and Coach K will return to the title game for the first time in nearly a decade.

Here are the basic ground rules:

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible. Obviously there are some differences. A college basketball team is expected to win more than 9 games (we kept a cut-off at a 75% winning percentage). We replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. I used the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls as the human polls and ESPN.com’s InsiderRPI, KenPom.com, and Sagarin’s ratings as the computer polls. The computer polls include data from the NCAA Tournament, but as you will see it didn’t affect the results that significantly.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

Here are the results:

We will let you digest that for a minute and will provide more information/analysis and the BCS Bowls after the jump.

Some interesting pieces from the rankings:

• Kansas and Kentucky remain #1 and #2 despite losing in the NCAA Tournament. Their ranking is surely bolstered by the human polls, which have not been updated since the start of the NCAA Tournament, but Kansas still holds a slim lead over Duke in the computers even though the former has been eliminated while the latter is still playing.
• The ESPN Inside RPI system really hates the Big 10. Not only did Final Four participant Michigan State get left out of the Top 25 (understandable as the Spartans came in as a #5 seed), but it also left #2 seed and Big 10 regular season and tournament champ Ohio State out of the Top 25.
• The human polls and ESPN Inside RPI really like New Mexico. Sagarin and Ken Pomeroy? Not so much.
• Conversely, the computers sort of like California, but the human voters had no faith in the Bears and didn’t even give them a single Top 25 vote on any of the 96 ballots cast by humans.

Now for some analysis before we announce our BCS match-ups.

• Automatics bids: Kansas (#1 overall and Big 12 champ), Kentucky (#2 overall and SEC champ), Duke (ACC champ), West Virginia (Big East champ), Ohio State (Big 10 champ), Washington (Pac-10 champ), and Syracuse (under paragraph 6 of the automatic qualification guidelines as the #4 overall)
• Other potential teams in the top 14 for at-large spots: Kansas State, Butler, Purdue, New Mexico, Temple, and Baylor
• Butler doesn’t qualify under the top 12 automatic bid as a conference champ because the Horizon League isn’t recognized as a potential automatic qualifier (partly because it does not play football — ok, that has a big effect) under the top 12 rule
• New Mexico does not qualify automatically out of the Mountain West because it won the regular season title not the tournament title (San Diego State won that)
• Villanova and Georgetown are ineligible because two Big East teams are already in the BCS and neither is in the National Championship Game

Now onto the games:

Rose Bowl

Washington (Pac-10 champ) vs. #7 Ohio State (Big 10 champ): For the second year, the Pac-10 regular season champ (California) loses in its conference tournament leaving the Rose Bowl with an unranked team in the “Granddaddy of Them All”. Fortunately for the Rose Bowl, this is probably a more compelling match-up as the NCAA Tournament demonstrated. To show you just how poorly the Pac-10 was viewed this year take a look at California’s line in the rankings graphic above. The Bears did not have a single vote in the AP or ESPN/USA Today poll. They couldn’t even find a homer in Berkeley or San Francisco to throw them a bone. Getting back to the game at hand, this could actually be an entertaining game with what could be amazing individual match-up between Evan Turner and Quincy Pondexter. Turner has the edge in that match-up, but Thad Matta will have his work cut out for him having to come up with a scheme to defend Isaiah Thomas with the roster available to him. We’re guessing Isaiah will get his points, but Turner and the Buckeyes superior depth (especially David Lighty‘s excellent all-around play) should be enough to let Mark Titus walk out of the stadium with a rose in his mouth.

Sugar Bowl

#5 West Virginia (Big East champ) vs. #9 Purdue (At-large)
Yikes. Another less-than-appealing match-up for the BCS, but instead of Tempe this one happens in New Orleans. West Virginia earns the invitation as the Big East champion and it has been legitimized after the fact with their run to the Final Four knocking. The big question here is Purdue, which is a team that fell all the way to a #4 seed, which would imply an overall ranking between #13 and #16, but in the BCS they qualify as an at-large team and the Sugar Bowl/BCS is faced with a difficult dilemma:

1. Select Syracuse with the 2nd at-large. Great match-up, but the teams are from the same conference and already played this year. Even though it was an excellent game decided by one point the BCS won’t pair these teams.
2. Select Butler, New Mexico, or Temple. In the words of Dana Carvey/George Bush: “Nah guh do it.”
3. Select Purdue.

• No Robbie Hummel? Ouch.
• Coming off an embarrassing loss to Minnesota? Is there anybody else available?
• They are a Big 12 school with a big fan base that will travel? We’re sold.

Welcome inside the mind of the BCS Selection Committee. The game will be interesting for about a half and we’ll enjoy watching Chris Kramer getting under the skin of Da’Sean Butler, but this game should be over with plenty of time remaining given the way the Mountaineers and the Boilermakers finished the season.

Fiesta Bowl

#6 Kansas State (At-large) vs. #11 New Mexico (At-large)
I know what you’re saying because we were saying the same things when the BCS Committee announced the pairing as a stunned Greg Anthony and Seth Davis stared at the screen blankly as Greg Gumbel tried valiantly to bring them back to the show. Let’s take you through the Fiesta Bowl’s thought process here. With the first at-large pick they take a Big 12 replacement in Kansas State which would appear to make sense since they are a solid team. After the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl get their selections, the Fiesta Bowl is left to pick between Butler, New Mexico, and Temple because all of the other possibilities were eliminated by prior BCS bowl selections taking a second team from a conference. The selection of Kansas State eliminated Baylor and the automatic bids for West Virginia and Syracuse eliminated Villanova and Georgetown. Scared by the possibility of having a half-full stadium of people wearing purple shirts featuring either a poorly drawn octagon or an angry man in a poorly-tailored suit, the Fiesta Bowl selects the relatively local team in New Mexico with the hope that the Lobo locals will make the drive out to Tempe to watch their team take on the Wildcats. Unfortunately for the Lobo fans, this game could turn ugly real quick as Frank Martin focuses on limiting Darington Hobson‘s touches. The combination of Jacob Pullen, Denis Clemente, and Curtis Kelly proves to be too much for Hobson, Dairese Gary, and Roman Martinez. After the game, which is played in front of a 75% capacity crowd and draws the lowest TV rating in BCS history, several members of the Fiesta Bowl organizing committee are overheard talking loudly with John Feinstein over a speaker phone in a luxury box about Feinstein’s new book about Greg Shaheen’s time at the NCAA.

Orange Bowl

#3 Duke (ACC champ) vs. #4 Syracuse (At-large): The BCS gets its one non-title game that it gets to showcase when trying to prove that one right outweighs a hundred wrongs. The media loves this one from the moment it is announced. The obvious media angle here is Coach K versus Jim Boeheim for just the third time (tied 1-1) with the last meeting occurring in the 1998 Sweet 16 when Coach K led a ridiculously talented group of freshman into Saint Petersburg, Florida and knocked off a good but by no means great Syracuse squad before blowing a late lead against Kentucky in the Elite Eight. This time the game has great match-ups all over the place. The marquee match-up is between potential lottery picks Kyle Singler and Wesley Johnson, but Jon Scheyer versus Andy Rautins, Nolan Smith versus Scoop Jardine, Brian Zoubek and the Plumlees versus Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson, and of course Boeheim’s famed 2-3 zone against Duke’s perimeter shooters. Needless to say CBS will have no problem hyping this game and it should be a fantastic game which the BCS head honchos will be sure to remind you of whenever you bring up the Fiesta Bowl.

BCS Championship Game

#1 Kansas (Big 12 champ) vs. #2 Kentucky (SEC champ)
And here is your payoff. The title game nearly everyone had in their office pool bracket comes to fruition. There isn’t much to not like about this game. You have your youth with a little experience (Kentucky) against your experience with a little youth (Kansas). You also have the two winningest programs in NCAA history with the coaches (Bill Self and John Calipari) from what might be the most memorable NCAA title game of the past 20 years. There are match-ups all over, but the big ones are John Wall versus Sherron Collins, Patrick Patterson against Xavier Henry, and DeMarcus Cousins against Cole Aldrich. This game could feature the most NBA talent on a college basketball floor since the early 1990s and even a NBA homer like Bill Simmons would be sucked in. This game would be so big that SportsCenter would ignore Tiger’s initial Masters press conference (OK, maybe not). We could go on and on about this match-up, but we are already starting to twitch. It’s almost enough to make you wish there was a BCS.

So there are your BCS bowl match-ups. What do you think? Is leaving Butler out worth it to get Kansas versus Kentucky and Duke versus Syracuse? We can already hear the cries from the talking heads on CBS and ESPN, but we are sure that the talking heads and some less egalitarian sportswriters would prefer to have the big boys still around. What about Tom Izzo‘s Spartans? They barely missed the top 14 cut-off to be included in the at-large pool and now they find themselves in yet another Final Four. Should they be excluded from the BCS action?

NCAA title for Scheyer in his senior season?

Advantage Area: Duke has the best perimeter scoring of any Final Four team. Nolan Smith can knock down outside shots, beat defenders off the dribble and has established a patented floater that’s impossible to defend. Jon Scheyer loves to drive or find open shots off of ball screens and is a marksman both from long range and the charity stripe. Kyle Singler is the hardest player to defend when he establishes position near the basket and loves to utilize a mastered fade-away jumper. Any one of these three can score 25 points on a given night and it’ll be the task of a stellar West Virginia defense to contain two of them and force the pressure on one of Singler, Smith and Scheyer to carry the load. Duke has also shed the notion this season of being soft. Their forwards- Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers- are tremendous at finding prime rebounding position with the sole purpose of kicking out to an open guard for an unchallenged three. Nobody plays with more intensity than Duke, something you simply could not see in previous seasons.

Potential Downfall: The Blue Devils are not a particularly good man-to-man defensive team. They play defense at an efficient rate as a unit. The guards don’t overextend as much as in past years because there’s size under the basket to disrupt shots, meaning the guards don’t feel as pressured to force turnovers on a constant basis. If Da’Sean Butler or Kevin Jones can get Scheyer or Singler into a one-on-one isolation opportunity on the offensive end, they should be able to draw a foul at the very least because none of the Duke guards are exceptionally quick. The problem is that the Mountaineers offense is based more on cutting and screening than penetration. Duke also relies completely on three players for their scoring. Their forwards and centers are just there to set effective screens and hit the boards with authority. If one of the Big Three gets in foul trouble and the other has a poor shooting night, Duke could be in serious trouble because they’re so dependent on Singler, Scheyer and Smith.

X-Factor: Brian Zoubek has improved over the course of three months more than any player in college basketball. His breakout performance came against Maryland in the middle of ACC play and Big Z certainly has not regressed since then. There might not be a better rebounder in the nation right now, forming quite a rebounding tag team with Lance Thomas and/or Miles Plumlee. Zoubek also operates at a more efficient rate when he gets the ball in the low post and can power his way to the foul line with his 7’2 frame. Prior to this season, Zoubek was an offensive liability that just clogged up space on the floor. Now he’s a vital cog on a Final Four team.

Key Semifinal Matchup: Kyle Singler vs. Devin Ebanks. Duke’s second leading scorer is coming off a regional final performance in which he didn’t make a shot for the first time in his career and had to chase LaceDarius Dunn around the floor for almost 40 minutes. The matchup with Ebanks might be easier defensively but should be quite the task on the offensive end. Ebanks is a superior defender, extremely long and loves to draw charges. If Ebanks frustrates Singler into another off night, it’ll be up to Smith and Scheyer to bail Duke out once again. Ebanks should also look to push Singler further and further away from the basket because he’s not particularly proficient at dribble penetration that far away from the rim. Both of these small forwards love to induce contact and live at the foul line.

Crunch Time Performer: Jon Scheyer is the #1 option late in games for Duke, although Nolan Smith can also provide a clutch shot like he did against Baylor, and Kyle Singler isn’t chopped liver himself. If Scheyer receives a ball screen from Zoubek or Thomas and gains momentum going to his right, he’s almost impossible to stop from either scoring or drawing a foul. He  loves to linger around the three-point line when a shot goes up for an offensive rebound and kickback, so even if Smith’s name is called late against West Virginia, Scheyer could still end up with an attempt. Also, if the ball is inbounded under the basket by Scheyer, look for him to receive the ball right back in the corner for a three. Duke runs that play constantly and yet nobody seems to be able to defend it.

Experience: This Duke unit doesn’t possess a plethora of tournament experience. The seniors lost in the first round in 2007, lost in the second round in 2008 and lost in the Sweet 16 in 2009, so none of these players have Final Four experience, a rarity for a Duke roster. I’m pretty sure Mike Krzyzewski has been here before, though. Only Michigan State truly has experience at this stage.

Forecast: Duke is the favorite heading into the Final Four, and for good reason. They’re healthy, efficient on both ends and playing their best basketball at the right time. Jon Scheyer has found his outside stroke just in time for the Final Four and Nolan Smith is also peaking. Even their oft-criticized forwards Thomas and Zoubek have perfected their roles within the Duke game plan. Whether they can contain Da’Sean Butler if the game is tight and rebound as effectively as in previous rounds could be the key to advancing. Many believe the tougher test is Saturday’s contest with the Mountaineers rather than the winner of Butler/Michigan State. I’m not as convinced.

Prediction: Duke hasn’t won a national title since 2001. That seems way too long for a program that’s become the standard bearer of college basketball since the mid 80s. Much like the Yankees finally breaking through at the end of the decade, I see Duke beginning a new era on Monday night. Another banner is hoisted to the rafters of Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Blue Devils are your 2010 National Champions.

Obviously, we’re very disappointed as to the allegations that the NCAA has made and the timing of this decision.  After a several-day internal investigation, however, we have decided to comply and not to appeal this decision as the student-athlete in question has indeed jeopardized his amateur eligibility by playing in the Bojangles RTP Pro-Am last summer and accepting unauthorized gifts while there.  Our understanding is that if we do not play him in the Final Four games, we will be in full compliance and will not be held accountable by the NCAA for playing him in previous games this season. 

Losing Singler is a Huge Blow to the Devils

This is obviously a huge blow to Duke’s chances to win the national championship this weekend, but how interesting is it that the NCAA has decided to not hold Duke accountable for the 38 other games Singler has already appeared in this year if they simply hold him out this weekend?  Would Memphis have gotten the same treatment with Derrick Rose on the eve of the Final Four in 2008?  Is the NCAA setting yet another precedent in how they handle ineligible players — i.e., if you discover it in time, we’ll cut you a deal on the games he’s already appeared in?   

Additionally, RTC has done some further investigation and discovered that the RTP Pro-Am is an annual event where many of the former and current players from the area convene for several weeks in July to work on their games in a structured environment – Jerry Stackhouse, Chris Paul and Grant Hill are but a few of the marquee names that appeared last summer.  Like any event of this nature, there are also bags of swag available to the players who agree to play, and the 2009 booty included coupons for free food to Bojangles (a local fast-food chain), new iPhones/iPods and various Nike-sponsored bags, shoes, hats and t-shirts (the shoe giant is one of the primary sponsors of the event).  The NCAA  has been clear in the past that such events are off limits to NCAA athletes such as Singler, but supposedly an enterprising UNC fan took cell phone photos of Singler playing in the games and holding a bag of the above gift items afterward.  Quite literally, holding the bag. 

Coach K faces a monumental task in preparing his team for their semifinal tilt against West Virginia in just over 48 hours without their versatile forward, but he’s performed miracles before on this stage, so we wouldn’t put it past him to find a way to overcome this major hurdle.  The AP has been the only media outlet to get through to him for an interview, and his quote on the matter was succinct but telling about his general feelings on the matter: “Happy April 1, everyone.” 

Butler (Andrew Murawa)

• If you didn’t already have plenty of reasons to root for the Bulldogs this weekend, how about the fact that senior forward Avery Jukes has already formed a foundation dedicated to aiding poor children and helping them with their education.  I don’t know about you, but when I was 22 the foundation I was most interested in starting in my name likely had Beer Fund at the title.
• The question remains about how big of a home-court advantage Butler will have this weekend. The Horizon League commissioner Jon LeCrone thinks it will be, well, substantial.
• For those Bulldog fans that aren’t able to get inside Lucas Oil Stadium for the games, they can head over to Hinkle Fieldhouse for a viewing party, with donations supporting the Jukes Foundation.
• But if you do need tickets, don’t go trying to look up Brad Stevens, as he has already passed the “ticket business” on down the line.
• As great of an accomplishment as the Final Four is, Stevens claims that the Bulldogs going undefeated in the Horizon League was their biggest feat of the year. So what if he’s about the only one who thinks that?
• Not only is this Bulldog team in the Final Four, they are also a very young team, with only two contributing seniors on the squad and a trio of sophomores who were largely overlooked in the recruiting process.

West Virginia (Ryan Restivo of SienaSaintsBlog)

• A West Virginia fan had a very interesting fan experience early in March, but made sure to watch Villanova-West Virginia on March 6 before checking in to the hospital for a heart attack. USA Today notes, she got a surprise visit from Da’Sean Butler.
• It’s been a little over two years since Duke and WVU met in the NCAA Tournament, and both teams feel that they have matured in the interim.
• WVU Alum Bob Huggins has brought the Mountaineers to the top.
• Meanwhile The Philadelphia Inquirer notes the Mountaineers’ strength is rebounding and defense.
• Bucky Waters, who was head coach  at Duke and West Virginia, expects a good game.

Duke

• Duke and its opponent West Virginia are two of the best teams in the country at getting extra chances at the basket from offensive rebounds and turnovers.  According to an analysis from The Audacity of Hoops, the Devils and Mountaineers average between six and seven extra chances per game.
• The (Duke) Chronicle’s Gabe Starosta gives insight into what the Duke campus if feeling this week in Durham.
• Stewart Mandel of SI makes the case that this year’s Duke team isn’t anywhere near hateable, and should actually have you rooting for them this weekend (almost).
• Kyle Singler’s handiwork created a t-shirt image to celebrate Duke’s unbeaten home slate this season.  He is expected to create another image to commemmorate Duke’s trip to the Final Four.

Michigan State (Tom Hager)

• Michigan State coach Tom Izzo decided to take a bus to Indianapolis rather than fly, as part of a team bonding experience.  On their way to the bus, the team was greeted by hundreds of fans.
• Larry Lage, who got to sit with Izzo as he made his game preparations, points out that if MSU wins the title this year, Izzo would have the highest all-time winning percentage in NCAA tournament history.
• Beyond The Arc stated something that has largely been untold: although Izzo’s sixth final four appearance is impressive, they did not have to face a difficult path to win their regional.
• Although Kalin Lucas’ achilles injury may diminish a large part of MSU’s offensive production, it is possible that the biggest hole in their team is the lack of leadership.
• According to Izzo, for the first time in years, he feels his team is as good as any other team left.

Here’s your vignette.  You have 35 seconds to take a shot:

A week ago, the news went out that West Virginia point guard Darryl “Truck” Bryant had fractured the fifth metatarsal bone in his right foot and that he’d be out for the season. There was even talk that he’d need surgery to fix the break instead of the usual regimen of ice, rest, and a bulky, annoying stabilizer boot.

Then, the Mountaineers beat Kentucky. Bryant is now medically cleared to play in the Final Four.

Using your knowledge in each of the fields of cybernetics, Bob Huggins‘ black warm-up suit collection, and the “High Risk Zone” of the fifth metatarsal bone, how do you account for the change in Darryl Bryant’s status for the games this weekend?  Please select one answer only:

• a) Darryl Bryant’s right pinkie toe is an orthopedic and osteologic wonder.  It heals even FASTER than that stoic but awesome liquid robot from Terminator 2, and the words “Bryant Metatarsal” will now be added to our language as something representing a person’s/object’s strong point –  the diametric opposite of “Achilles’ Heel.”  As in: “That’s right, Greg Gumbel, Kentucky’s Achilles’ heels are their 3-point shooting and their perimeter defense, but the ability of Wall, Cousins, and Patterson to get close looks in the lane is their Bryant Metatarsal,” *
  
• b) the injury wasn’t as bad as originally thought, and the Truck should never have been parked,
  
• c) the “rest of the season” part was added because whoever sent out the press release assumed WVU would lose to UK, thereby rendering their prognosis about Bryant correct…or,
  
• d) Bryant’s going to try to tough it out…because it’s the Four.

Time’s up.  If you selected a), then, like us, you’re probably hoping that this really is the case. If you chose b) or c), you’re just cynical and wrong and may show yourself out.  If you chose d), we think you’re right.

Bryant (historically) scores more, but is Mazzulla the better option? (David Smith/AP)

Bryant’s change in status should surprise nobody.  It’s easy to wonder how a guy can go from possibly needing surgery one day to being medically cleared to play the next, but there are three reasons why you could see Bryant on the floor this weekend.  First, in athletes, fixing this type of fracture with surgery instead of the ice/rest/boot combo is gaining popularity as the ideal treatment.  Second, Bryant was fitted for a special orthotic shoe-and-insert on Monday — in Durham, North Carolina, of all places — which could help to allow him to play.  Assuming the insert does not, at some point in the first half, emit a strange royal blue-colored sleeping gas to which all Blue Devils are immune (we’re kidding, Durham-area foot doctors), the device is designed to take some weight off the broken bone and reduce Bryant’s level of pain.

Third…it’s the Final Four.

Bryant’s availability presents Huggins with a little quiz-question of his own.  Whom do you play?  Is Truck Bryant with an orthotic shoe better than a rejuvenated (and further rehabilitated) Joe Mazzulla?  There’s been no word on how Bryant moves with this thing or if it alleviates enough pain for him to be effective.  To be honest, though, we feel the spot is Mazzulla’s no matter what.  Mazzulla is the preferred player at this position anyway, but had to sit out last year after injuring and having surgery on his left shoulder (his dominant side) in a game in December.  Bryant was moved to point guard and has filled in admirably for over a year, but Mazzulla’s mobility and confidence have increased during the course of this season.  Since the Big East Tournament semifinal game against Notre Dame, Mazzulla has been the more effective point guard, and Huggins has recognized it.  Mazzulla has played more minutes, scored more points, and dished more assists than Bryant.  A full-strength Bryant.

Mazzulla flexed some muscle against Greg Paulus and the Devils on that night in 2008. (Jim Young/Reuters)

The most compelling reason we feel that there’s no contest here is what happened in 2008.  In the NCAA Tournament’s second round that year, #7 West Virginia knocked off #2 Duke, 73-67.  Mazzulla, then a sophomore, was the point guard on that team.  His line that night?  How about 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists.  True, some of their roles were less than what they are now, but Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Brian Zoubek, and Lance Thomas all played on that Duke team.  We know that game predates Mazzulla’s injury, but the guy almost dropped a triple-double in a tournament win over a Duke team that contained many of these players in the tournament two seasons ago.  That’s no guarantee that he’ll do it again.  But does it make him a better option right now than Truck Bryant with a weird shoe and questionable mobility?  We think so.  Combine that with how he stepped up against Kentucky with the game of his life, driving to his left on that repaired shoulder and into the paint numerous times with the looming prospect of running into the billboard known as DeMarcus Cousins, and we need no further evidence that this guy can bring it in big games when he’s got his confidence.

We’re not piling on Darryl Bryant.  We love the guy, and not just because he’s nicknamed “Truck.”  We’re extolling Mazzulla, not trashing Bryant.  Darryl Bryant stepped in for an injured teammate as a freshman and did what was asked of him longer and better than his coach probably expected.  If he’s able to play this weekend, we hope he does.  No matter the Mountaineers’ fate, the guy deserves to play in the Final Four now that they’re here. Right now, though, we’re  just not sure how much he should be playing if Joe “The Schoola” Mazzulla is the other option.

[* = The equity partners of RTC will reward any CBS announcer/analyst...let's see, here...five dollars for every time they use "Bryant Metatarsal" in this fashion during broadcasts this weekend.  Yes, five dollars.  Don't judge us. It's been a long season, and gas is expensive.]