Predicted finish: 5th

2010-11 Record: 23-11, 8-8 (5th, Big 12)

Head coach: Frank Haith, first season

Key losses: Justin Safford (6.4 PPG), Ricky Kreklow (2.1 PPG), Laurence Bowers- (11.6 PPG, injury)

It’s amazing the Missouri Tigers are still standing. After experiencing one of the roughest offseasons in recent memory, it’s a wonder MU didn’t simply fold its basketball program up and leave it for dead. First, in March, head coach Mike Anderson left for Arkansas, just weeks after telling a local sportswriter he planned to retire in Columbia (Firestorm #1). Then, several reporters erroneously reported this spring that athletic director Mike Alden had hired Purdue’s Matt Painter (Firestorm #2); when that didn’t materialize, Alden announced the hiring of Frank Haith, a coach who had gone 43-69 in ACC play at Miami (Firestorm #3). Later in the summer, a Yahoo! Sports investigation of the Hurricanes’ athletic programs accused Haith’s staff of paying $10,000 to a recruit (Firestorm #4), and there’s still no closure on that case. And, last but not least, starting forward Laurence Bowers tore his ACL this fall (Firestorm #5). He’s out for the season. After all that, Missouri is still ranked #25 in the preseason polls. That’s because the Tigers bring back a veteran group, headlined by terrific guard play and Big 12 Player of the Year candidate Marcus Denmon.

Marcus Denmon Is an Unselfish Star. (AP/M. Schiefelbein)

The Stars: It’s rare to find a star like Denmon. He’s one of the nation’s top three-point shooters and can score almost at will, but he’s sometimes criticized for playing too unselfishly. That’s part of his game, though. Denmon rarely forces a bad shot, but when he does, it usually goes in. He scores within the flow of the offense, he passes well, he plays tough defense, he rebounds in traffic, and he hustles his tail off. It’s almost as if Denmon is a star with a role player’s attitude, and that’s exactly the way Frank Haith would prefer it. This team feeds off Denmon’s work ethic and leadership, and his 16.9 PPG and 44.8% from three-point land doesn’t hurt, either.

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Zach Hayes is an RTC editor, contributor and bracketologist.

As the pre-Midnight Madness polls trickled out last Friday, it became glaringly obvious to us that consensus was more the exception than the rule. Aside from Duke at the top, teams like Butler and Kentucky somewhere in the middle and a precipitous decline for Purdue following Robbie Hummel re-tearing his ACL, agreement was about as prevalent as a British parliament session. Examining polls from a handful of websites that compiled a top 25 to prepare for the start of practice — ESPN’s Andy Katz, TSN’s Mike DeCourcy, CBS’ Gary Parrish, Fox’s Jeff Goodman and yours truly here at RTC — we found five teams with a noticeable amount of dissent attached to their name in the preseason. Let’s examine those schools and break down what they need to do to match optimistic projections and how they can avoid sinking to the depths of other predictions.

Team #1: Syracuse (Preseason Rankings: #7, #10, #13, #19, #20)

Overrated at #7 if: the Orange are unable to replace the leadership, chemistry and production provided by fifth year seniors Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku and fourth year junior Wes Johnson. At times last season, Syracuse was a well-oiled machine on both ends of the floor. Players embraced their roles offensively and Jim Boeheim had the perfect roster at his disposal to stymie opponents with his patented 2-3 zone. The jury’s still out on whether Kris Joseph will be able to step into Johnson’s shoes and replace that versatility on the wing. Scoop Jardine was that sparkplug off the bench last season — will he be able to channel that effort for 35 minutes per night rather than 21.3 MPG? As many accolades as Fab Melo and Dion Waiters achieved in the high school ranks, depending on freshmen can be risky business. Asking them to drop just three spots in the polls after losing that considerable amount of production seems unreasonable and unrealistic.

When Boeheim Speaks, We Should Listen (TSN/B. Leverone)

Underrated at #20 if: Remember last summer when Boeheim hyped up that transfer from Iowa State named Wes Johnson? He’s been doing the same with Fab Melo, telling SI.com’s Seth Davis that his seven-foot freshman will be “a strong contender for national rookie of the year.” Plus, let’s face it: storied, winning programs like Syracuse prefer to reload than rebuild. Last October, we were wondering how the Orange would replace Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris (in hindsight, that looks foolish, but it was true at the time). Why should we believe any differently this time around? NBA scouts have tabbed Joseph as a future lottery pick, Jardine and Brandon Triche shot well enough in 2009-10 to believe they can pick up Rautins’ slack, and Melo is an immediate upgrade offensively over Onuaku. In a conference that lost personnel across the board, Boeheim has a shot to put together back-to-back Big East title squads.

Team #2: Missouri (Preseason Rankings: #8, #12, #13, #16, #16)

Overrated at #8 if: Missouri’s returning talent isn’t that good in the first place. The Tigers return their top three scorers from a season ago, but it’s not as though Missouri lit the world on fire in 2009-10: they lost games to Oral Roberts, Oklahoma and Nebraska before garnering a #10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There’s also concern about the Tigers frontcourt — Laurence Bowers, Ricardo Ratcliffe, Justin Safford and Steve Moore –– regarding their ability to contain the behemoths that face them in the Big 12. Any team that takes care of the basketball, keeps the action in the halfcourt and boasts legitimate scoring big men can negate Mike Anderson’s chaotic full-court press and take the Tigers out of their comfort zone. The prized recruit of Anderson’s class, 6’8 power forward Tony Mitchell out of Texas, is dealing with eligibility concerns and hopes to join Missouri in time for the bulk of Big 12 play, but that proposition is in serious jeopardy.

Underrated at #16 if: people underestimate the ability of Anderson to get the most out of his team. He’s positively giddy about the prospects of this year’s roster. There’s scoring punch on the outside with Kim English and Marcus Denmon, a dynamic point guard duo with Mike Dixon and Paul Pressey and plenty of candidates to thrust themselves into stardom in the frontcourt, especially Ratcliffe, the ultra-talent top junior college recruit. The Tigers full-court press keeps them in any game against any opponent if they’re able to force turnovers and impose their will. Anderson has the speed, versatility and athleticism to pressure opponents into oblivion. English is a phenomenal scorer and potential all-conference performer. If he develops more of a well-rounded game and improves efficiency, Anderson also boasts a go-to scorer when the Tigers need a clutch bucket.

Team #3: North Carolina (Preseason Rankings: #6, #9, #12, #14, #14)

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Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 16 of the second round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses.  Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds.  Here are the Sunday games.

12:10 pm – #1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga  (Buffalo pod)

In the CBS national game to start the day, everyone will get this very enticing game between Syracuse and Gonzaga.  Given the way this year is winding up, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Orange without their big man Arinze Onuaku found itself on the short end of the score around 2:30 pm today.  But we still have faith in Syracuse even without the talented center and we think that Jim Boeheim’s team is too good to fall short of the Final Four this early.  The primary problem that the Zags are going to have is one they didn’t have to worry as much about with Florida State, and that is in stopping the powerful SU offense.  With offensive scoring threats at all five positions, Syracuse is in a far more advantageous position than FSU was (with their limited offense) when Gonzaga caught fire on Friday — if the Zags want to get into a shootout with Syracuse, that’s not likely to end well for them. Still, with the way the Big East has had so many early round troubles, and the WCC looking great with St. Mary’s already in the Sweet Sixteen, we’re not ready to dismiss the Zags based on that alone.  The Syracuse zone is likely to be something that Mark Few’s team has not seen with such athletes all season, so even with their ability to put the ball in the hole, we hesitate to think the Zags can consistently score on it.

The Skinny: Gonzaga will push the Orange, but we still like this team to advance and make a serious push for the national title in coming weeks.

2:20 pm – #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech  (Milwaukee pod)

You might not see it on their faces, but the Buckeyes are smiling.  Northern Iowa’s removal of Kansas puts Ohio State in the driver’s seat in the Midwest region.  That said, there’s still no way Thad Matta and Evan Turner are going to let the rest of that team look past their opponents and assume an open road to Indianapolis.  Good thing, because Georgia Tech showed us that they’re not just made up of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal and a bunch of suckers.  The Yellow Jackets shot 2-10 from the three point line but balanced that by holding Big 12 player of the year James Anderson to a 3-12 shooting night, 0-6 from beyond the three-point arc, and an overall 11 points.  But the most impressive aspect of Georgia Tech’s performance on Friday night — by FAR — was the fact that they went to the free throw line 25 times — and hit 24 of them!  It wasn’t just Lawal and Favors.  Tech played nine players, and eight of them shot at least one free throw.  Evan Turner isn’t just the player of the year in his conference, though — he’s likely the national POY, so the Tech task is that much tougher.  Turner wasn’t himself in their first round game against UCSB, going 2-13 and posting only nine points (though he did contribute 10 boards and five assists).  He’s looking to break out, and knows he’ll have to be at his best.  Lawal and Favors, though, will be looking to get Dallas Lauderdale, Jon Diebler, and Turner in foul trouble early and open poke some holes in that OSU front line.

The Skinny:  You probably don’t want to go with our Midwest picks, since yesterday we took Kansas and Ohio.  It’s not exactly going out on a limb to say that this will be a great second round game, but that stat line of Turner’s shows you that he can play such an important role on the team even when he’s not scoring.  For Tech to win, they’d have to turn in a similar performance at the free throw line, keep Turner under wraps and coax him into a supporting role again, and cool down Jon Diebler.  That’s a tough trifecta to pull off.  We don’t see it happening.  But we didn’t see Northern Iowa dismissing Kansas, either.

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Patrick Sellars is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 Conference.  The Big 12 Tournament begins on Wednesday at Noon CT.

Final Standings

1. Kansas (15-1, 29-2) – Obviously the Jayhawks are above and beyond the best team in the Big 12, and regardless of what they do in the Big 12 Tournament, KU will be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Overall, this season has been a wildly successful one for the Jayhawks, but Bill Self and his team will not be satisfied unless they’re hoisting the trophy in Indianapolis.
2. Kansas State (11-5, 24-6) – After losing two straight games, one to Kansas in Lawrence and another to lowly Iowa State at home, its safe to say that KSU backed its way into the Big 12 Tournament. Kansas State was one of the many surprise teams in the conference this year, and they’ll hope to continue surprising people all the way into April.
3. Baylor (11-5, 24-6) – This is probably the best team in college basketball that few people are really talking about. Ranked #20 in the nation, Baylor has the resume to be a three seed in the NCAA tournament. After where I picked this team in my preseason poll, I think Scott Drew is a safe pick for my coach of the year in the Big 12.
4. Texas A&M (11-5, 22-8) – After the loss of Derrick Roland I thought the Aggies were done. But behind great leadership from Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, TAMU had a legitimate shot at finishing in second place. Even though they didn’t achieve that feat, Mark Turgeon’s team looks pretty good heading into the conference tournament as the winners of three straight. I think if anyone is going to beat Kansas again it could be the Aggies from A&M.
5. Missouri (10-6, 22-9) – The Tigers are still adjusting to life without Justin Safford (1-2 without him, the one win coming off of a last second buzzer-beater in OT against Iowa State). Mizzou has the best shot to improve their tournament seed if they can beat A&M in the quarterfinals. A third shot at Kansas is what everyone in Columbia is wishing for, but I’m not sure another 20-point loss to Kansas is what MU needs before the NCAA Tournament.
6. Texas (9-7, 23-8) – If there is any sportswriter in the world that picked Texas to finish sixth in the Big 12 please come forward and let me bask in your wisdom. I think its safe to say UT is the surprise team of the season in this conference, even more so than Oklahoma. The Longhorns have one of the most talented teams in the nation and they will probably end up being a #7 seed in the NCAA tournament. No one in Austin is satisfied. However, if the Longhorns go on a run we could still have the Big 12 final that everyone expected, Kansas vs. Texas.
7. Oklahoma State (9-7, 21-9) – If the Cowboys want to make some more noise on the national level now is the time to do it. James Anderson will keep you in just about every game, but the other players around him need to step it up. I think this team could be the surprise of the Big 12 Tournament this season, remember they beat Kansas State in Manhattan back in late January and the Wildcats would be their second round matchup if OSU gets past Oklahoma.
8. Colorado (6-10, 15-15) – Find me one person in Boulder that isn’t happy with an eighth place finish in the Big 12 and I’ll be overly surprised. CU has finally gotten themselves out of the cellar, and this could be enough reason for Cory Higgins to skip the draft and make a run at the NCAA Tournament next season.
9. Texas Tech (4-12, 16-14) – What started out as a promising year for the Red Raiders has ended quite terribly. Right now TTU is riding a seven-game losing streak and even if they were to beat Colorado in the first round of the conference tournament, it is highly unlikely they could beat KU to make some kind of improbable run.
10. Oklahoma (4-12, 13-17) – OU fans would love to see an upset of their in-state rival in the first round game, but I also think many Sooners fans feel the same way about this season that the Coates family felt about Old Yeller. Sure, you’d love to see the season go on, but it might be time to put this team out of their misery and head to the offseason.
11. Iowa State (4-12, 15-16) – I think ISU pulled off the biggest upset of the year in the last game of the regular season. The Cyclones are playing their best basketball at the right time, and Texas can’t take this first round game lightly or they could find themselves on a bus back to Austin as early as Wednesday night.
12. Nebraska (2-14, 14-17) – The Cornhuskers and Mizzou will meet for the third time this season, and the good news for NU is that usually its hard to beat the same team three times in the same season. However, I don’t see the Huskers pulling off an upset of that caliber, and it looks like NU fans can finally focus on the women’s team, which is undefeated.

Season Awards

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Patrick Sellars is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 Conference.

Power Rankings 

1. Kansas (13-1, 27-2) – The bad news for Kansas fans is that you lost a conference game after a tremendous run. The good news is that you have seen this before, (a road loss to Oklahoma State) and last time the Jayhawks bounced back in a big way, winning the national championship.
2. Kansas State (11-3, 24-4) – Its still not out of the question for the Wildcats to share the conference title with KU.  The game Wednesday in Lawrence will be pretty intense, and KSU probably knows they will need to beat Kansas at least once (on Wednesday, or in the Big 12 Tournament) in order to have an argument for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.
3. Baylor (9-5, 22-6) – That was a huge week for Scott Drew and the Baylor Bears. They needed to hold home court against Texas A&M, which they did, and then go on the road and take care of business against the Sooners. Right now this is probably the last team I’d want to see on my side of the bracket if I was a top seed in the NCAA tournament. BU plays with fire and intensity that is even unmatched by most Big 12 teams, and that’s saying a lot.
4. Texas A&M (9-5, 20-8) – The Aggies, along with the Bears, are in really good shape for a top four seed in the conference tournament and grabbing that all-important first round bye. B.J. Holmes spraining his ankle will not help, but that’s why getting the bye is even more important for TAMU because they would like to give Holmes the extra day of rest and recovery.
5. Missouri (9-5, 21-8) – Losing Justin Safford to a torn ACL costs the Tigers size on the inside which they desperately need. I don’t see the loss of Safford being as important as losing one of their better scorers, but usually when you lose a veteran player late in the season it can demoralize your team. Mizzou should be fine with a guy like Mike Anderson at the helm, but right now they’re fighting very hard to improve their seed in the NCAA tournament and will miss Safford’s presence on the court.
6. Oklahoma State (8-6, 20-8) – The week didn’t start off well with a loss at Texas, but it certainly ended pretty well with their upset over KU. The team you saw on Saturday is definitely not the team that OSU brings every night, as it’s impossible to shoot that well every game, but we did see the Cowboys being more efficient with the basketball. They spread the scoring around even with James Anderson putting up 27 points. The most impressive stat of this game was that OSU outrebounded KU 34-26, that’s something most people never saw coming.
7. Texas (9-6, 23-7) – The Longhorns had a big scare when J’Covan Brown collided with B.J. Holmes in the second half of the game on Saturday. Texas can’t afford to lose a scoring guard especially this late in the season, but he made it back ok on Monday night’s game against Oklahoma.  The Horns will need to win this weekend at Baylor to give itself a shot at a top four seed in KC.
8. Colorado (4-10, 13-15) – Other than the atrocity that was the Mizzou vs. Colorado game on Wednesday night, where we saw CU quit in the first five minutes, the Buffaloes had a pretty good week, taking down Iowa State in Boulder on Saturday to notch their fourth conference win.  That’s the highest conference win total that CU has had since the 2005-06 season. So congratulations to Colorado, and hopefully they can continue to improve and make the whole conference stronger.
9. Texas Tech (4-10, 16-12) – Currently the coldest team in conference play, on a five-game losing streak, TTU will be looking to either upset Baylor at home or beat Colorado on the road this week in order to “right the ship” before the conference tournament starts. John Roberson (14.8 PPG, 5.3 APG) is probably one of the better point guards in the conference that no one talks about, and along with junior Mike Singletary they could lead this team to some upsets in the next two weeks.
10. Oklahoma (4-11, 13-16) – It looks like OU will be luck to get Willie Warren back at all this season. His draft stock has plummeted, so I guess it’s not entirely out of the question that he could skip the NBA draft and stay in Norman. However, it’s more than likely that OU will not have Warren next season, and Jeff Capel will start rebuilding this program.
11. Iowa State (3-11, 14-15) – The Cyclones will have a say in how the Big 12 standings sift out in this last week, and they could be the ultimate spoilers against Mizzou on Tuesday in Ames. More importantly I don’t think any ISU fans expected a possible last place finish this season, and it could be time head coach Greg McDermott is on the hot seat.
12. Nebraska (2-12, 14-15) – I give credit to this Nebraska team because they have not given up, they play every team very tough. However, they just don’t have the talent to compete in the Big 12 right now.  Brian Diaz and Christian Standhardinger, two foreign freshman forwards, will be good for NU in the future. So at least there is something to look forward to on the hard court in Lincoln. But hey, the women’s team is undefeated.

Team of the Week: Baylor Bears – The Bears desperately needed to beat Texas A&M in order to maintain a shot at a top four seed in the conference tournament. BU took care of business and now they’re back in the top 25.  This week has two potential wins for Baylor, who can move as high as second place because they have the tiebreaker over Kansas State.

Player of the Week: Matt Pilgrim F Oklahoma State (8-8 FG, 2-2 FT, 6 REB) – that was Pilgrim’s line against Kansas. He is averaging just over 8 PPG on the season, so I give him Player of the Week honors for stepping up against the big competition. If OSU can get production from him like this in the tournament they will be a very hard team to beat.

This Week’s Predictions

Tuesday March 2

• Colorado at Nebraska (8:00 PM ET) – Both teams are coming off rare wins in conference play, so there isn’t really a “hot” team to pick in this matchup. I like the Buffaloes because they have a lot more talent in their two star guards, Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, than NU has in their starting lineup.

Winner: Colorado

• Missouri at Iowa State (8:00 PM ET) – The Cyclones will be looking to play spoiler in this matchup. They played Mizzou tough in Columbia so I expect they will do the same in Ames. Marquis Gilstrap had one of his better conference games against MU, so look for him to be a huge factor in this game. Overall, this is not a good matchup for the Tigers but Mike Anderson doesn’t usually let his team lose two games in a row, especially to a team with less talent.

Winner: Missouri

• Baylor at Texas Tech (8:00 PM ET) – The Bears know that they will get Texas Tech’s best shot, especially now that BU is ranked. TTU has played many teams tough at home, regardless of how overmatched they may be, and I don’t think this game with be an exception. However, Baylor has the “Big Three,” LaceDarius Dunn, Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter.

Winner: Baylor

Wednesday March 3

• Kansas State at Kansas (8:00 PM ET ESPN360) – If you don’t have ESPN360, find a friend with it and go to his house for this matchup. Kansas State is now officially the hottest team in the Big 12, going up against a KU team that is probably demoralized after getting blown out in Stillwater. Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente are probably my favorite guard duo to watch in the country, and I also enjoy watching Xavier Henry’s silky smooth shot from behind the arc. If you’re a true college basketball fan you will find some way to watch this game, because it is one of the better matchups of the whole season. Kansas knows if they beat their rival they lock up the Big 12 regular season title, and KSU knows their only chance at sharing the title is to upset the Jayhawks in Lawrence, which just doesn’t happen.

Winner: Kansas

• Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (9:00 PM ET ESPN2) – The fact is without B.J. Holmes, A&M is not the same team. Last time these teams played the Cowboys came out on top, and this time I think they will get the best of the Aggies again. Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis are a tremendous inside-outside duo for A&M, but it won’t be enough to stop James Anderson and company.

Winner: Oklahoma State

Saturday March 6

• Texas A&M at Oklahoma (12 PM ET ESPN) – The Aggies will be looking for redemption against a different Oklahoma team in Norman. There will be a lot of fans on hand for this game, but the excitement level of the crowd remains to be seen. It’s hard to cheer on a team that has suspended three players and their “star” is most likely out for the year with a sickness. Tommy Mason-Griffin is the new leader at OU, but I don’t think he’s ready to lead his team to an upset of this caliber. TAMU knows they need a win to clinch a top four spot in the conference, and Mark Turgeon will make sure his guys are ready to play on Saturday.

Winner: Texas A&M

• Nebraska at Oklahoma State (1:30 PM ET) – I’m not a liar, so I won’t say that the Cornhuskers have much of a chance in this game. It is going to be James Anderson’s last game in Stillwater, and look for him to put on a show in his “curtain call.”

Winner: Oklahoma State

• Kansas at Missouri (2 PM ET CBS) – It’s always a great environment when these two rivals play. Last season, Zaire Taylor hit a game winner in Columbia and the Mizzou fans rushed the court (both teams were ranked in the top 20 so it was hardly an upset), which shows how intense this rivalry is on both sides. KU will again be looking to put MU in its place, and since the Tigers have absolutely no answer for Cole Aldrich I like Kansas to win this one easily.

Winner: Kansas

• Texas Tech at Colorado (4 PM ET) – This will most likely be the battle for eighth place in the conference. Colorado fans want to see as many wins out of their Buffs as possible this season, and I think they will pleased on Saturday. Colorado will have its best week since they upset Baylor, and finish at 6-10 in conference play.

Winner: Colorado

• Texas at Baylor (4 PM ET ESPN) – Baylor has lost at least one game every week they show up in the rankings. I don’t think this week will be any different as the Longhorns will come into Waco and upset the Bears. It took Baylor overtime to upset Texas in Austin, so we all know we’re in store for a great basketball game.

Winner: Texas

• Iowa State at Kansas State (6 PM ET)– Craig Brackins had his best game of the season against KSU in their first matchup. I like Brackins to have another great game, but the Wildcats will come out on top to clinch second place in the conference.

Winner: Kansas State

1. Robbie Hummel aftermath.  Obviously, Purdue losing Hummel to a season-ending ACL injury will get a lot of attention.  Here’s what some of the big names are writing about it – Gary Parrish, Jeff Goodman, Mike DeCourcy, Andy Glockner.  Everyone agrees that this is a situation that Purdue will not be able to overcome.  One thing’s for sure, though — America may have found its team to root for in the postseason this year.
2. You gotta give it up for ESPN’s Jeannine Edwards going on John Calipari’s show and getting into a friendly banter about last year’s odd situation with former UK coach Billy Gillispie, well-chronicled on this very site.
3. Expect this to enable a lot of snarky dialogue today in the blogosphere: FIU head coach Isiah Thomas was ejected from his team’s game against Middle Tennessee State last night (a loss, 74-71).   Thomas ran onto the court to protest a call and was thrown out for his behavior.  FIU is now 7-23 on the season and 4-13 in the Sun Belt Conference, in case you were wondering (and we know you were).
4. Missouri’s Justin Safford joined Robbie Hummel with torn ACL injuries this week, but oddly, MU officials are leaving open the possibility of Safford returning to the team this season.  The junior starting forward tore the ligament in the Tigers’ blowout win over Colorado on Wednesday night, and he was averaging 9/4 in twenty minutes per game this year.
5. Syracuse is expecting to set a new on-campus record for attendance at the Carrier Dome on Saturday night for their battle with Villanova.  34,616 tickets have been sold, nearly a thousand more than the previous record crowd in 2006 for Gerry McNamara’s last home game.