Gordon was a member of the nation’s deepest and strongest recruiting class in America in 2008, with five players ranked in the Rivals top fifty.  But we honestly have trouble remembering a class that has been a bigger bust than this one.  The reason that UCLA took three losses in the 76 Classic last weekend is directly attributable to the fact that the core of sophomores that remained — Malcolm Lee, Jerime Anderson, J’Mison Morgan, and Gordon — haven’t lived up to their billing.  The fifth member of that class, Jrue Holiday, had a lackluster freshman season (9/4/4 assts) before heading off to NBA riches.  But it has been Gordon among the remaining four who has shown promise as the most efficient player on the UCLA roster this season, averaging 11/5/2 blks and shooting 57% in a little under 25 minutes per game.  With the loss of Gordon, who was one of the only post options at Howland’s disposal, he will have to hope for support from freshman bigs Reeves Nelson (7/5 in 15 MPG) and Brendan Lane (3/2 in 9 MPG) unless J’Mison Morgan (2 pts and 1 reb all season) can find the game that had national powers Kentucky, Louisville and much of the SEC and Big 12 recruiting him two years ago.  Given the obstacles that UCLA is already facing this season, we’re just not convinced that the Bruins can turn things around to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the sixth consecutive year.

The last two summers (here are 2007 and 2008), we’ve taken it upon ourselves to review how these one-and-dones did during their freshman year to determine whether their presence on campus for a mere 6-8 months was worth it for the schools involved.  As it turned out this time around, only four college freshmen (+ Jennings) thought they were ready for the NBA Draft after only one season, so let’s take a look at how things turned out for them and their teams last year.

2009 One-and-Dones

Memphis – Worth It. After losing three starters from their 2008 national runner-up team, Memphis could have slid back into relative mediocrity by Tiger standards – very good, but not great.  One-and-doner Tyreke Evans prevented that from happening.  He averaged 17/5/4 assts/2 stls in 29 mpg and was the most efficient player on the team.  He also showed that he was a gamer, dropping 33 huge points in the Tigers’ loss to Missouri and leading a furious comeback from 24 points down in that contest.   More importantly,  Memphis was 6-3 and ranked #24 in the nation when Evans moved from the shooting guard to the point guard slot; the Tigers then ran off 27 straight wins en route to a #2 seed and another Sweet Sixteen appearance, much of it due to Evans’ command of the team.  Furthermore, prior to John Calipari’s departure, Memphis was building a pretty impressive reputation as a successful stopover for NBA-level point guards.  Is there any coincidence that John Wall followed Calipari to Kentucky after seeing what Evans and Rose were able to do at Memphis?  We’d have to say that Tyreke Evans coming to Memphis for one year was most definitely worth it for that program.

USC – Worth It. USC knew when they signed Demar DeRozan that they were unlikely to have this acrobatic swingman on campus for more than one year.  For much of that year, however, it wasn’t looking like a good fit.  Three points in a loss vs. Seton Hall.  A 2-9 shooting night against Missouri.  Six turnovers and fouling out of another loss at Washington.  But around midseason, as things began to click in DeRozan’s game, USC benefitted.  He provided a consistent threat on the wing and may arguably have been the Trojans’ top option in the last six weeks of the season.  His season numbers were good – 14/6 on 52% shooting – but his stats from February on were better – 16/7 on 54% shooting with 22 of his season-total 51 assists coming in the last nine games.  USC rode DeRozan’s playmaking abilities to win its first-ever Pac-10 Tournament and a convincing win over BC in the NCAAs before succumbing to national runner-up Michigan St in the second round.  Or, in others words, more than what OJ Mayo was able to produce as a one-and-doner in 2007.  Notwithstanding all the choas that has enveloped this program in the interim, we’d have to say that getting DeRozan to USC for one year was worth it.

Ohio St. – Not Worth It. For the third year in a row, Thad Matta lost a one-and-done player whose actual performance during his only season in Columbus didn’t really mesh with what you might expect from an elite prospect.  He lost Daequan Cook in 2007 (along with stars Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr.), Kosta Koufos last year, and BJ Mullens this season.  To date, we’ve yet to see any indication that Mullens has any discernible basketball skill other than being big (7’0).  He averaged 9/5 in about 20 mpg with only two starts over the course of the season, but as an indication of how much Matta ultimately valued him, Mullens’ minutes tailed off considerably in the last 6-8 games.  His defense was often considered suspect (37 blks all season) and he earned a reputation for loafing and failing to get back downcourt after an offensive possession.  OSU had a solid season, mostly on the back of super-soph Evan Turner, but it’s difficult to construct an argument that Mullens brought much of anything to the Buckeye program other than an ability to get drafted in the first round.  Ultimately, that may have been all Matta wanted to get from him, as he’s shown a substantial willingness to take one-and-dones every year that he can.  Still, we don’t think that Mullens was on balance a good pickup for the Buckeyes, so we’re saying that he wasn’t worth it.

UCLA – Not Worth It. After Kevin Love’s departure from Westwood as a one-and-done, we thought UCLA might continue that trend this season with another superb guard ranked #2 in his class named Jrue Holiday.  We were wrong.  Holiday is exceptionally athletic, but he never seemed to ‘get it’ with respect to how Ben Howland runs his team and expects his players to execute.  When we watched Holiday play, we saw a player who had a tendency to play out of control and get frustrated when things weren’t going his way (in other words, like most freshmen).  Had Holiday stuck around for another couple of years at UCLA, he probably could have tamed his tendencies to become an elite guard in college basketball, but we’ll never know.  After averaging a mere 9/4/4 assts as a starter who seriously tailed off down the stretch (single figure points in 10 of his last 13 games) ending in a second round NCAA blowout loss to Villanova, Howland may be questioning why he bothered to take this player for only one season.  His contributions to the program were minimal and his general unhappiness with the program could actually end up hurting UCLA’s recruiting in the future more than it ever helps to have gotten him.  Unlike Demar DeRozan across town at USC, Holiday wasn’t worth it.

*Brandon Jennings – Push.  Of course, this is a weird situation because Jennings didn’t play for an American college last season, instead deciding to go to the Italian leagues and get paid for his services.  He would have been drafted higher last season had he been eligible to come out, but then again, so would have all these one-and-doners except for Evans (who at #4 is about where he would have been last year).  Playing in Europe didn’t hurt him very much despite his paltry stats, but it didn’t appear to help him, either, in any way other than financially.  It’ll be interesting to watch how he develops in the NBA now.  You’d have to believe that Jennings’ previously indomitable confidence would be somewhat tempered after spending a year as the backup-cum-waterboy.  We’re quite certain he had images in his head of going to Italy and winning MVP in his rookie season, but the broken American basketball system doesn’t exactly inspire schoolboy humility.  Will that carry over to his development as an NBA player, or will he be able to accept his European comeuppance and use that to improve his game in the next few years?  There’s no way of knowing at this point.

One-and-Dones: Historical Snapshot

As stated above, RTC has done this for the three years in which the one-and-done rule has been in existence.  We’ve made a qualitative determination as to whether recruiting a particular one-and-done was worth it for each program, and what we’ve found is that so far it’s been a roughly equivalent proposition.  Of the 24 one-and-dones in three years, we’ve found thirteen instances (57%) where the player in question was either worth it or well worth it, “it” being the trouble of landing a top player and dealing with the disruption and potential hole he leaves in the program after one season.  Additionally, in seven of the thirteen ‘worth it’ instances, we found that the player was such a great boost to the program in terms of success and marketing that the residual effects of his presence there will be felt for many years after he’s gone (e.g., OSU and Memphis making it to the NCAA Championship Game).  On the other hand, we can only count ten occasions (42%) where a one-and-done player wasn’t worth the trouble of getting him into the program.  So let’s look at it this way…  if you were a college coach and you knew you had a historically better than even chance that recruiting a John Wall or Derrick Favors would end up making your program better, and a 25-30% chance of truly elevating your program into an elite echelon, there’s no question you do it, right?   What’s the downside?  Your player doesn’t do a whole lot, leaves after one year and you end up where you were before he got there.  Exactly.  Not only is recruiting one-and-dones worth the risk (so long as you’re doing it legally, Tim Floyd), but if you’re not doing it then you’re putting yourself at a serious competitive disadvantage.

1.  Blake Griffin, Oklahoma - BOOM, although the fact that he’s going to ClipperLand means drug addiction and/or horrific injury.  Bill Simmons agrees. 

2.  Hasheem Thabeet, UConn – BUST, his offensive game won’t develop any further and he’s no Dikembe.

4.  Tyreke Evans, Memphis – BUST, not seeing it at this selection; opposing defenses can lay off of him out to 18 feet. 

5.  James  Harden, Arizona St. – BOOM, a Joe Johnson/Monta Ellis clone.  Kid can really play.

6.  Stephen Curry, Davidson – BUST, limitless range but really, #6?  Too many question marks to be this high.

7.  Jordan Hill, Arizona – BUST, nice player but he’s not even as good as Big Baby.

8.  Jrue Holiday, UCLA – BUST, classic example of being a better athlete than player. 

9.  Demar DeRozan, USC – BOOM, DeRozan really came on at the end of the season and appears poised to break out.

10.  Jonny Flynn, Syracuse – BUST, is Flynn really the best true point in this draft?  No way. 

11.  Terrence Williams, Louisville – BUST, seems like the kind of player who will be out of the league in 3 years (does everything well, nothing great).

12.  Gerald Henderson, Duke – BOOM, second best guard in the draft behind Harden.

13.  DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh – HEDGE, this is about the right position for an undersized beast like Blair. 

14.  Earl Clark, Louisville – BOOM, should have been higher but has a reputation for being lazy.  Will shed that and become an excellent NBAer.

15.  Austin Daye, Gonzaga – BUST, we used to love this guy, but he hasn’t shown much improvement in two years of college.  We don’t believe in him.

16.  BJ Mullens, Ohio St. – HUGE BUST, this is a joke.  Either he’ll be washing cars in two years with Patrick O’Bryant or turn into Chris Kaman, who knows?

17.  Ty Lawson, UNC – BOOM, he’s proven that he’s a winner and has improved his game substantially.  Could be TJ Ford w/o the back problems.

18.  James Johnson, Wake Forest – BOOM, has a reputation for being lazy, but he’s silky smooth at his size and will succeed in this league.

19.  Tyler Hansbrough. UNC – HEDGE, we all know what kind of player he’ll be.  Average at best.

20.  Sam Young, Pittsburgh – BOOM, an absolute steal at this pick; Young could end up being a star.

21.  Jeff Teague, Wake Forest – BOOM, would have been a lottery pick had he not packed in the second half of the year; the talent and athleticism is apparent.

24.  Eric Maynor, VCU - HEDGE, nice pickup for this position. 

25.  Jon Brockman, Washington – BUST, sorry, but Brockman just isn’t NBA material in the long run.

26.  Toney Douglas, Florida St. – HEDGE, could go either way here, but we’d expect Douglas to find a niche in the League.

27.  Darren Collison, UCLA – BUST, Collison has always struck us as someone who should have been better than he was. 

29.  Nick Calathes, Florida – BOOM, Calathes will find a way to make himself a good pro if he decides to play in good ole USA instead of Greece.

30.  DaJuan Summers, Georgetown – BUST, but it’s worth a gamble given his natural abilities.  Could become a defensive stalwart at some point if he tried.

Before we take a look at the stragglers, let’s take a quick peek at a few who made up their minds over the last few days.  It should be noted that, by and large, these are good decisions.  It will be interesting to see if that holds through Monday’s deadline.

Players Returning to School

• Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech – interesting decision, as Lawal was probably a late first round pick.  Tech may be this year’s Wake Forest (mucho talent on an underachiever) with Lawal and Iman Shumpert returning with superfrosh Derrick Favors coming in.
• Damion James, Texas – another great decision, as James was staring second round or undrafted square in the face.
• Tyler Smith, Tennessee – Bruce Pearl has to be thrilled as he couldn’t have expected to have the hard-working Smith back for a third year in Knoxville.
• Devan Downey & Dominque Archie, South Carolina – neither of these players were ever serious about leaving because they weren’t going to be picked, but their return will make South Carolina a formidable presence in the SEC East next year.

Players Officially Leaving

• Jrue Holiday, UCLA – no big surprise as Holiday has been moving up the boards  in recent weeks.  Maybe Holiday is another example of a player who blossoms at the next level (he sure didn’t at this one).

The one player whose name is on everyone’s mind due to the fact that it will significantly impact next year’s rankings, however, is Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks.  If he decides to return, and there’s nobody in Lexington who seems to know definitively what he’s going to do, then Kentucky is your preseason #1 team without question.  If he does not return, then it’ll probably go to Kansas with Kentucky and several others coming in closely behind.

Here are a few of the names of other players who have waited to the last minute to let the world know their decisions…

• Luke Harangody, Notre Dame – said to be 50/50, but really should return to South Bend.
• Austin Daye, Gonzaga – seriously leaning draft, and we’re seriously questioning that decision.
• Jeff Teague, Wake Forest – almost definitely going, but Dino Gaudio is making a last-minute pitch?
• Greivis Vasquez, Maryland – does anyone know what this kid will do, including himself?

There are quite a few smaller names, but we feel as if this year most of the impact players who should be returning have made a good decision to do so.  We’ll try to update things tomorrow as the news flows in.

Derrick Brown, Xavier – Brown is not returning to school.  He officially announced his intentions on the first day of the camp, but he says that he’s known for several weeks.  He’s already graduated from school and with the move of his head coach Sean Miller to Arizona, he wasn’t interested in starting over with a new coach.  In drills, his mechanics apparently looked poor, but he has freakish athleticism and will hover in that guaranteed-money cutoff between the first and second rounds.

Austin Daye, Gonzaga – Daye measured out very well at 6’11 in shoes with a 7’3 wingspan, but at 192 pounds he might get blown away by a stiff breeze.  He also excelled in the workouts, showing a strong fundamental basis and a sure stroke from everywhere on the court.   There are still concerns about his relative strength, but according to Chad Ford, a couple of lottery teams were willing to give him another look after his workouts.  Probably leaning draft after this camp.

Taj Gibson, USC – Also measured well, standing 6’10 in shoes with an absurd 7’4 wingspan.  Given that Gibson will be 24 on draft day and he’s on the fence of the first round, he’s probably not returning to school.

Luke Harangody, Notre Dame – ‘Gody did not measure well, standing only 6’8 in shoes, a full inch-and-a-half shorter than his counterpart Tyler Hansbrough.  According to this report, though, he may have the best jumpshot in the entire draft class.  Still, he’s painfully unathletic and it would be a surprise to see Harangody stay in the draft.

Jrue Holiday, UCLA – Another winner in the measurement department, as Holiday showed he’s a big point guard (6’4 in shoes) with a long wingspan.  He was also extremely impressive in workouts, with one scout saying, “that’s the kid we fell in love with in high school.”  Given the exceptional workouts he was having in Chicago, Holiday was getting more buzz than any other guard there and is unlikely to return to Westwood.

Damion James, Texas – James must not have impressed much because most reports failed to mention him.  Given that he’s a projected second-round pick at this point and he told Andy Katz that he’s looking for a guarantee, he would probably do himself well to return to school another year.

Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech – Lawal showed explosiveness and good size for a PF prospect, but according to Andy Katz, he may not be willing to take the chance unless he can secure a first round guarantee.  Not sure he’s going to get that, which would mean probably a better than even chance that Lawal would join Derrick Favors and Iman Shumpert back in the ATL next season.

Jodie Meeks, Kentucky – Meeks is another player looking for a first round guarantee, and he’s unlikely to get it.  He looked like he’s in tremendous shape and he shot the ball well in the camp, but there are still visible holes in his game (most notably, defense).  This Wildcat is probably heading back to Lexington to play off-the-ball with John Wall in 2009-10.

Patrick Mills, St. Mary’s – Mills impressed scouts with his speed and shooting mechanics, but his size makes him a borderline first rounder.  He said that if he is going to be a second round pick, he’ll return to St. Mary’s for his junior season.  It says here that we don’t think that’ll be a problem.

Tyler Smith, Tennessee – Measured in at only 6’6 in shoes, so what position is he at the next level?  Shot the ball well in drills, but remains on the fence depending on whether he’ll be a first or second round pick.  Sound familiar?

Jeff Teague, Wake Forest – Gone.  Says he’s leaving Wake Forest so long as he’s a first rounder, and he assuredly is one.  Athletic point who had a longer wingspan and reach than expected, which helps to explain how a 6’1 guy can throw down such ridiculous dunks in transition.

Greivis Vasquez, Maryland – Vasquez measured well for a combo guard, and his quotes made it sound like this was just for show.  He has little to no shot at the first round this year, and it appeared that he acknowledged as much.  He should be back in College Park next season.

So of the twelve players still sitting on the fence, we’ve got the following staying in the draft: Brown, Daye, Gibson, Holiday, Mills and Teague.  Really only Daye seems to be questionable at this point.  The other six: Harangody, James, Lawal, Meeks, Smith and Vasquez are largely hoping for a first round guarantee that will not be forthcoming (Lawal excepted  in this group).

Once the measurements including the athletic combine stats come out (vertical leap, speed, etc.), we’ll re-visit the 2009 Predraft Camp.

In individual drills, we’d expect smooth athletes like Daye, Holiday, Mills and Teague to shine, but you never really know with these things.  It’ll be interesting to listen to the reports coming out of Chi-town the rest of the week with respect to these players.  According to Andy Katz (provider of the below list), this week will probably not determine the decisions of Teague, Lawal, Holiday, Mills, Gibson and Brown, but he expects Vasquez, ‘Gody, Meeks and Smith back in school soon.  He also says Damion James is expected to remain in the draft, but has nothing to say about Daye.   Stay tuned.

• Jeff Adrien, Connecticut
• Rodrigue Beaubois, Cholet (France)
• DeJuan Blair, Pitt
• Jon Brockman, Washington
• Derrick Brown, Xavier*
• Chase Budinger, Arizona
• Nick Calathes, Florida
• DeMarre Carroll, Missouri
• Omri Casspi, Maccabi Elite (Israel)
• Dionte Christmas, Temple
• Earl Clark, Louisville
• Darren Collison, UCLA
• Dante Cunningham, Villanova
• Stephen Curry, Davidson
• Austin Daye, Gonzaga*
• DeMar DeRozan, USC
• Toney Douglas, Florida State
• Wayne Ellington, North Carolina
• Tyreke Evans, Memphis
• Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
• Taj Gibson, USC*
• Danny Green, North Carolina
• Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
• Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
• Luke Harangody, Notre Dame*
• James Harden, Arizona State
• Gerald Henderson, Duke
• Josh Heytvelt, Gonzaga
• Jordan Hill, Arizona
• Jrue Holiday, UCLA*
• Joe Ingles, Melbourne South Dragons (Australia)
• Damion James, Texas*
• James Johnson, Wake Forest
• Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech*
• Ty Lawson, North Carolina
• Eric Maynor, VCU
• Jack McClinton, Miami
• Jerel McNeal, Marquette
• Jodie Meeks, Kentucky*
• Patrick Mills, Saint Mary’s*
• B.J. Mullens, Ohio State
• Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona State
• A.J. Price, Connecticut
• Tyler Smith, Tennessee*
• DaJuan Summers, Georgetown
• Jermaine Taylor, Central Florida
• Jeff Teague, Wake Forest*
• Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
• Marcus Thornton, LSU
• Greivis Vasquez, Maryland*
• Terrence Williams, Louisville
• Sam Young, Pitt

Players With Agents
First, the players who have already signed with agents, effectively ending their collegiate careers.  For the most part, this group is first-round material, but Brandon Costner, Eric Devendorf, Daniel Hackett and Dar Tucker must know something about their draft status that nobody else does. 

Likely to Stay in Draft 
Next, we have a much smaller group of players who are very likely to stay in the draft, but they have yet to sign with an agent, and there’s been no official word yet.  All five of these players are probably first rounders, but with Nick Calathes, Jrue Holiday and Patty Mills, there remains a possibility of a return to school next season. 

On the Fence
These thirteen players will decide the complexion of college basketball in 2009-10, much as Lawson, Ellington and Green did this season.  For example, if Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson return to Kentucky, that’s a top five team.  If Jeff Teague returns to Wake Forest, same thing.  Derrick Brown at Xavier, Austin Daye at Gonzaga, Luke Harangody at Notre Dame, Gani Lawal at Georgia Tech, Tyler Smith at Tennessee, Jarvis Varnado at Miss. St., Greivis Vasquez at Maryland.  Each of these players is all-american caliber.  This group of players could break a lot of hearts in the next six weeks.

You Gotta be Joking
This group of players has a fair mixture of guys who just want to get evaluated (even though Parrish points out most won’t actually get evaluated) for next season’s draft and players who have no idea what their true value is in terms of NBA scouts.  There are also several who have nowhere else to go, having worn out their welcomes elsewhere.  This list always makes RTC feel a little sad, yet as we now know, the NCAA has enacted a new rule making it so there will be even more ill-informed choices such as these in the future.  Thanks, guys.  Way to look out…

• Early Entry Fatigue.  LSU’s Tasmin Mitchell will test the waters, but he won’t sign with an agent.  Ditto for Memphis’ Shawn Taggart.  And Miami (FL)’s Dwayne Collins has the same idea.   UCLA’s Jrue Holiday is a bit of a surprise given how he struggled at the end of the season, but he too will take a dip. 
• Curry Watch.  One player who has yet to throw his hat in the ring is Davidson’s Stephen Curry.  Will he be back to make a run at Pete Maravich’s all-time scoring record next season?
• Nice raise.  Alabama’s new coach Anthony Grant will earn $1.8M annually through the term of his seven-year contract.
• Nobody?  It’s really hard for us to believe that nobody currently in D1 wanted this guy after he did a pretty good job keeping the Arizona program together this season. 
• Xavier Coaching Search.  Word is that assistant coach Chris Mack is the most likely candidate to take over for the departed Sean Miller. 

vs. Virginia Commonwealth (#11)
Mar. 19 @ 9:50pm

Vegas Line: UCLA -7

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Los Angeles, CA
Conference: Pac 10
Coach: Ben Howland, 149-53
08-09 Record: 25-8 (13-5 in the Pac 10)
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Best Win: 85-76 vs. Washington, February 19
Worst Loss: 82-81 vs. Washington St., February 21
Off. Efficiency Rating: 121.2, 3rd
Def. Efficiency Rating: 92.5, 40th

Nuts ‘n Bolts

Star Player(s): Darren Collison, PG, senior- 14.8 points, 5.0 assists, 1.6 steals, 54% FG, 92% FT; Josh Shipp, SF, senior- 14.4 points, 1.3 steals, 51% FG, 44% 3PT
Unsung Hero: Alfred Aboya, C, senior- 10.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 58% FG
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Darren Collison, 1st round, 24th overall
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 31% (165th nationally); percentage of minutes played by payers coming off the bench
Achilles Heel: 250th out of 330 in field goal percentage defense
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Jrue Holiday steps up his game on both ends of the court and the perimeter defense improves, while the Bruins continue to shoot at the 50.6% that leads the nation.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: The perimeter defense allows easy penetration so opponents shoot at a high percentage and Alfred Aboya gets in foul trouble early.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, Final Four (Lost to Memphis)
Streak: 4 consecutive years
Best NCAA Finish: National champions 11 times, 1995 most recent
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.31. UCLA wins 0.31 more games on average each year than would be expected based on this historical performance of teams with a similar seed.

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: UCLA has played a team from the state of Michigan in every year since 2002.
Distance to First Round Site: 2,709 (Philadelphia, PA)
School’s Claim to Fame: UCLA has more applicants than any other school in the country and counts Jack Black, Francis Ford Coppola, James Dean, Will Forte, James Franco, Heather Locklear, Rob Reiner and Ben Stiller among its enterainment alumni.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Their loss to Princeton in the first round of the 1996 NCAA Tournament as defending champions.
Prediction: Can the Bruins make it to a fourth consecutive Final Four if a couple higher seeds in their bracket are upset? Sure, but a Sweet 16 appearance sounds like a better guess, which isn’t too bad for a down year. Is it?

Major RTC stories: Yeah, You Might Be Better than a UCLA Player
Preview written by… Ryan Rosenblatt of Bruinsnation.com

Pac-10 Final Regular Season Standings
1. Washington 14-4, 24-7
2. UCLA 13-5, 24-7
3. Arizona State 11-7, 22-8
4. California 11-7, 22-9
5. Arizona 9-9, 19-12
6. USC 9-9, 18-12
7. Washington State 8-10, 16-14
8. Oregon State 7-11, 13-16
9. Stanford 6-12, 17-12
10. Oregon 2-16, 8-22

Player of the Year: James Harden
The third sophomore in Pac-10 history to win player of the year. The others were Jason Kidd (1994) and Mike Bibby (1998). Harden is also the third ASU player to win it following Ike Diogu (2005) and Eddie House (2000).

Freshman of the Year: Isaiah Thomas
Thomas set the freshman scoring record for Washington with 477 points and is the fourth Husky to win the award.

Coach of the Year: Lorenzo Romar
This is the second time Romar has won the award, previously he was named coach of the year in 2005.

Defensive Player of the Year: Taj Gibson
He may come back for another year, thanks in part to his good friend O.J Mayo’s advice.

Most Improved Player of the Year: Justin Dentmon

First Team All-Pac-10
Jon Brockman F Sr. and Justin Dentmon G Sr. Washington
Darren Collison G Sr. UCLA
James Harden G So. and Jeff Pendergraph F Sr. Arizona State
Jerome Randle G Jr. and Patrick Christopher G Jr. California
Chase Budinger F Jr. and Jordan Hill F. Jr Arizona
Taylor Rochestie G Sr. Washington State

Second Team All-Pac-10
Isaiah Thomas G Fr. Washington
Josh Shipp G/F Sr. UCLA
Nic Wise G Jr. Arizona
Daniel Hackett G Jr. and Taj Gibson F Jr. USC

Pac-10 All-Freshman Team
Isaiah Thomas G Fr. Washington
Jrue Holiday G UCLA
DeMar DeRozan F USC
DeAngelo Casto F and Klay Thompson G Washington
Jeremy Green G Stanford

Pac-10 All-Defensive Team
Alfred Aboya C/F Sr. and Collison UCLA
Hill Arizona
Hackett and Gibson USC

Pac-10 Tournament Preview

Image courtesy of http://www.pac-10.org/

Favorite: Washington.
The regular season Pac-10 champions, Washington, find themselves in the drivers seat for the tournament. They are the favorites riding a five-game winning streak into the tournament. The Huskies fates will depend heavy on Pac-10 Freshman of the Year Isaiah Thomas. He is the best pure scorer and can create his own shot. Mr. Double-Double, Jon Brockman, will also need to play big for the Huskies to pull one out. Do not be surprised if they need a basket late in a game and the ball ends up in senior Justin Dentmon’s hands.

Contenders: UCLA and Arizona State.
This is the first year in Darren Collison’s career that UCLA did not garner the number one seed for the tournament. The Bruins are still a huge threat as the number two seed. They have a great coach who has a knack for getting his team to play better when it matters. The tournament is also right in their backyard, The Staples Center. Arizona State is always a threat with Player of the Year James Harden patrolling the court. They stumbled toward the finish with three losses in their final four games. The Sun Devils played up-and-down ball all year, so who knows what to expect in the tournament, they could lose their first game against Arizona or win the whole tournament.

Dark Horse: Washington State
The dark horse in all this is seven-seed Washington State. The Cougars have won three of their last four, the only loss at Washington. They won at UCLA and beat Arizona and ASU at home. They are playing their best ball at the end of the year and will be a tough matchup for UCLA should they get past Oregon in the first round.

Best game in the first two rounds: No. 2 UCLA vs. 7/10 winner (Assuming No. 7 Washington State beats Oregon)
The Bruins and Cougars split the season series with both teams losing at home. The first game was a two-point loss for the Cougars. They had a chance at the buzzer to win, but a 3-point attempt by Marcus Capers was off target. The second game was a loss for UCLA. It was only their second loss at home all year. In a high scoring game Taylor Rochestie led the Cougars to only their second victory in LA in their last 53 games. Josh Shipp had a buzzer-beater blocked. Both games went down to the buzzer and don’t expect anything less than this one.

Wednesday, March 11

• No. 8 Oregon State vs. No. 9 Stanford, 6 p.m. FSN
• No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Oregon, 8:30 p.m FSN

Thursday, March 12

• No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 12 noon FSN
• No. 1 Washington vs. No. 8/9 winner, 2:30 p.m. FSN
• No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 6 p.m. FSN
• No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 7/10 winner, 8:30 p.m. FSN

Friday, March 13

• Semifinal 1, 6:00 p.m. FSN
• Semifinal 2, 8:30 p.m. FSN

Saturday, March 14

• Championship, 3 p.m. CBS

My checking in on the Pac-10 this week is a breakdown of each teams’ chances at postseason.

Locks

UCLA

Overall: 19-4  Conference: 8-2
Home: 13-1  Road: 4-2  Neutral: 2-1
Last 10: 8-2
Good Wins: at USC, Arizona, California, USC
Bad Losses: Michigan (neutral),

The Bruins have really picked it up under Ben Howland and won 15 of their last 17.  This is the team that was ranked four in the country in the preseason. Darren Collison is leading this tear, while freshman Jrue Holiday scored in double figures three straight games  for the first time this season before facing Notre Dame. They have held home court with only Arizona State beating them at the Pauley Pavilion. The Bruins are in the driver’s seat in the Pac-10 the rest of the way. They have won their last four games by an average of over 22 points a game. Out of the four losses Michigan is the only inexcusable one, at Texas, at Washington, and even at home against Arizona State are not big deals.  At this point they are just fighting for seeding, right now I would have them at a three seed.

Washington

Overall: 17-6 Conference: 8-3
Home: 12-2 Road: 5-3 Neutral: 0-1
Last 10: 7-3
Good Wins:  USC, UCLA, at Arizona State
Bad Losses: at Portland

Only one loss out of first place is not a bad situation for the Huskies. They have held home court well in the Pac-10 going 3-1, with the only loss a triple overtime game against California. They have managed to go 5-2 on the road in the Pac-10 so far.  The early season losses to Florida and Kansas will hurt them, but only when it comes to seeding. Isaiah Thomas is going to be a force for years to come. Right now I would put them at a six seed.

In Good Standing

Arizona State

Overall: 18-5  Conference: 7-4
Home: 9-2  Away: 6-2  Neutral: 3-1
Last 10: 6-4
Good Wins: BYU (neutral), at UCLA, at Arizona,
Bad Losses: Baylor (neutral), Washington State

The Sun Devils looked like the best team in the Pac-10 coming off the non-conference schedule. They had won 11 out of 12 and James Harden looked like the Player of the Year.  Since then they have cooled off a bit, but are still a force to be reckoned with. Harden is still a first or second team All-American. Arizona State is still in the tournament. They are the only team that beat UCLA in the Pavilion this year, which in itself is something to say about a squad.  Even though they are a game behind Washington in the conference I give them a higher seeding at five.

California

Overall: 18-6  Conference: 7-4
Home: 14-1  Road: 4-4  Neutral: 0-1
Last 10: 6-4
Good Wins: Away: at Utah, at Washington Home: Washington, Arizona State, Arizona
Bad Losses: Oregon State, at Stanford

California has put themselves in a good position, but still need to make some noise.  The Utah win was their best win out of conference.  If they could have won at Missouri or against Florida State in Las Vegas I think this team would have no worries. The win against Washington last week was a big one coming off the trip to Southern California. They are in good standing and are probably a lock if they win their next three, but their still is not a lot of room for error. I have them at an eight seed.

Work Left to Do

USC

Overall: 15-7  Conference: 6-4
Home: 13-1  Road: 2-5  Neutral: 0-1
Last 10: 6-4
Good Wins: Home: Arizona State, Arizona, California
Bad Losses: at Oregon State, at Seton Hall

USC is a team all year I expected to be better than they are. They have been up and down.  They are not a good road team (2-5) with the only wins coming against the worst two teams in the conference. The loss at Seton Hall hurts a lot because their best out of conference win was against a bad ACC team, Georgia Tech.  They have managed to play great at home though, (UCLA the only loss) so if they win out their home games and steal two of the four remaining roads they would be tough to keep out of the tournament.  Right now I have them as one of the first teams looking in from the outside.

Arizona

Overall: 16-8 Conference: 6-5
Home: 14-2 Road: 2-6
Last 10: 7-3
Good Wins: Home: Washington, Kansas, Gonzaga
Bad Losses: UAB, at Texas A&M, at UNLV, at Stanford

Arizona is just as bad as USC on the road.  They have more bad losses – UAB, Texas A&M, UNLV, Stanford.  I still think they are a better team than USC. They seem to have finally put it together and have won seven out of the last ten and five straight. Life was breathed into this team the minute Chase Budinger’s face was crushed by the shoe.  Since then they have been putting up a solid fight.  I like them more than USC because of the recent success, better non-conference wins (Kansas and Gonzaga) and they have a win against the top-two in the Pac-10, Washington. I have them as one of the last teams in the tournament at a 9 seed.

NIT Bound

Stanford

Overall: 15-7  Conference: 4-7
Home: 14-1  Road: 4-4
Last 10: 4-6
Good Wins: Arizona, California
Bad Losses: at Washington State, Oregon State

Stanford was undefeated coming into Pac-10 play. The critics said they had played no one though.  The critics were right, their easy scheduling shows everyone was a little too hyped up about Johnny Dawkins’ squad.  They are 4-7 in the Pac-10 with only two impressive wins over Arizona and California, both at home. They seem destined for the NIT and will finish the regular season with no more than 18 wins.

Wait Till Next Year

Washington State

Overall: 12-11  Conference: 4-7
Home: 6-6  Road: 4-4  Neutral 2-1
Last 10: 4-6
Good Wins: at Arizona State
Bad Losses: Baylor, at Stanford

Washington State has made little noise in the Pac-10 and even less out of conference.  Their only decent win was at Mississippi State, the rest came against the likes of Idaho, Idaho State, Montana State, Sacramento State, Mississippi Valley State, Canisius, and Farleigh Dickinson. They have an impressive freshman in Klay Thompson that they can build on, but they will have to wait till next year to do it, it will be tough to just finish at .500.

Oregon State

Overall: 10-12  Conference: 4-7
Home: 7-7  Road 3-5
Last 10: 4-6
Good Wins: at California, USC
Bad Losses: at Howard, at Nevada, Washington State, Yale, Montana State

Oregon State’s 4-7 conference record is great to see if you have been following them the last two years. Last year they didn’t win one conference game. Craig Robinson has done a great job with this team. Calvin Haynes looks like he is a force to be reckoned with. Hopefully this team can keep improving, but they will have to wait for next year to prove themselves in the postseason.

Futility

Oregon

Overall: 6-17  Conference: 0-11
Home: 4-10  Road: 2-6  Neutral: 0-1
Last 10: 0-10
Good Wins: Kansas State
Bad Losses: Too many to list

Oregon is chasing a record no one wants.  They have a chance to follow Oregon State’s squad from last year in futility. With a goose egg in the Pac-10 wins column they need to upset somebody before the season finishes out. With only three games remaining at home that may be tough.

Games to watch tonight

• 2/12 USC at Arizona- With both teams fighting for a spot in the dance this game will go a long way to deciding it. USC needs an impressive road victory and Arizona cannot get swept by USC and expect to jump then when Selection Sunday comes around.
• 2/12 UCLA at Arizona State- After Arizona State’s victory in the Pauley, UCLA is out for revenge. If the Sun Devils win they have their ticket punched, if not they still have some business to take care of at home against USC and Arizona. The Sun Devils are going to make it, but a sweep of UCLA would go a long way into seeding.

#20 Syracuse at #16 Villanova at Noon on ESPN and ESPN360.com: The appetizer for a great day of basketball. This isn’t necessarily a must win for either team, but a win today would probably boost their NCAA seed by at least a spot on Selection Sunday. Both teams have virtually assured themselves a NCAA bid (particularly with Syracuse’s relatively easy remaining schedule in the Big East). One of the more interesting aspects of this game is that if the Orangemen lose, there is a decent chance that they will drop out of the top 25 leaving the Big East with only 5 teams in the top 25 after having as many as 9 teams earlier this season. Anyways, back to the game. Watch the match-up at point guard featuring Jonny Flynn against Scottie Reynolds. The winner of that match-up will likely win the game barring an explosion by either Eric Devendorf or Dante Cunningham.

Cincinnati at Georgetown at Noon on The Big East Network, ESPN Full Court, and ESPN360.com: Georgetown is killing me this year. I saw them play in Orlando against Tennessee in the Old Spice Classic. They lost that game, but it was pretty clear to me that day that they had the talent to make it to the Sweet 16 at the very least. I never imagined that they might be in a position at this point in the season that they might not make the NCAA tournament. To be fair, at that time I was also operating under the assumption that Tennessee was good. The Hoyas were able to break their 5-game losing streak against Rutgers and will need to beat the Bearcats if they want to get some momentum heading into their game against Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. If John Thompson III is able to figured out a way to keep Deonta Vaughn in check, the Hoyas should be able to ride Greg Monroe and DaJuan Summer to a victory.

Notre Dame at #12 UCLA at 1 PM on CBS: The Irish are desperate for a victory having lost 6 straight games. They will have to end their losing streak in one of the rare non-conference match-ups this month. Everybody knows Luke Harangody is going to get his (25.3 PPG and 13.2 RPG), but Notre Dame will need Kyle McAlarney to break out of his prolonged shooting slump and get a great game out of Tory Jackson, who will be matched up against the Bruins veteran PG, Darren Collison. Look for UCLA to pull away in the 2nd half behind Collison, Josh Shipp, and Jrue Holiday.

Miami (FL) at #3 Duke at 1:30 PM on Raycom, ESPN Full Court, and ESPN360.com: I’m fully expecting Duke to come back strong at home after the massacre at Littlejohn on Wednesday night, which is something that rtmsf actually predicted before the game (sort of), but nobody picked up on until after the game. (Ok, nobody has really picked up on it yet.) On the other hand, Miami was on the right side of the other blowout upset beating Wake Forest by 27. Look for Kyle Singler to rebound with a strong game after a weak “effort” against Clemson that was plagued by foul trouble. Coach K will likely use Gerald Henderson, the only Blue Devil who showed up against Clemson, on Jack McClinton in an attempt to slow down the mercurial Miami star. If Singler and Henderson can contain or at least equal Dwayne Collins and McClinton, respectively, the Blue Devils should return to their winning ways. Well at least until UNC invades Cameron on Wednesday night.

#17 Texas at Nebraska at 2 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Texas will be looking to rebound after back-to-back losses on the road. Today, they return to Austin to take on the Cornhuskers. Look for A.J. Abrams and Damion James to have big games as Rick Barnes‘s squad will definitely be motivated in this one after falling 3.5 back of conference leader Oklahoma. If Abrams and James have big games that should be enough to hold off Nebraska’s balanced attack.

Michigan at #1 UConn at 6 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: This is a game that the Huskies should be able to win fairly convincingly particularly with the game in Gampel Pavillion, but as this year has taught us never expect too much out of the #1 ranked team in the country. A Michigan win would obviously do wonders for their NCAA tournament chances, but it will tough particularly with John Beilein‘s recent changes in his rotations including bringing DeShawn Sims off the bench in their 71-51 win over Penn State in their last game. The new lineup, which is still led by Manny Harris, may provide some match-up problems for UConn and their big men. I expect UConn to pull this one especially with the recent play of Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien, but Michigan could give them problems and Beilein certainly knows all about the Huskies dating back to his days as the coach at West Virginia.

Charleston at Davidson at 6 PM on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: Most people will tune in just to watch Stephen Curry, but this could actually be a realtively close game (a rarity for the Wildcats in the weak Southern Conference). When these teams met earlier this season, the Wildcats escaped with a 4-point win on the road after Charleston had a chance to tie it with a 3 with less than 10 seconds remaining in the game. This is particularly meaningful as the Wildcats haven’t lost a Southern Conference game since January 20, 2007 (a 43-game winning streak). As an added bonus, you can see Bobby Cremins (former head coach of Georgia Tech) try to come up with a scheme to guard Curry. Cremins is one of the few coaches in the country who has had a player who was at Curry’s level or even above that as he coached Kenny Anderson (along with Dennis Scott and Brian Oliver aka “Lethal Weapon 3″) to the NCAA Final 4 in 1991.

Florida State at #10 Clemson at 7 PM on NESN and Fox Sports: I’m actually more interested in this game than the others for my own selfish reason since I’ll be doing another RTC Live when Clemson comes to Boston College on Tuesday night. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers have returned to Earth after their beatdown the hated Blue Devils just a few days ago. Oliver Purnell‘s squad had better be ready because the Seminoles are a fairly dangerous team (ask Roy Williams, who needed a Ty Lawson 3 at the buzzer to pull out a win against FSU). This is a classic letdown game so it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on it especially if Toney Douglas gets hot or if either Trevor Booker or K.C. Rivers isn’t on his game after the celebrations following the Duke win.

#19 Minnesota at Ohio State at 8 PM on The Big Ten Network: Minnesota will be licking its wounds after getting crushed by Michigan State at the Breslin Center earlier this week. Unfortunately for Tubby Smith, the Gophers have to head to Columbus to take on a Buckeye team that just knocked off Purdue. If Evan Turner is hot, the Buckeyes could make a move into the top 25 with a win here knocking the Gophers out in the process.

#23 Arizona State at Oregon State at 8:30 PM on Fox Sports: James Harden and the Sun Devils will be looking to complete the Oregon sweep against Craig Robinson‘s Beavers. [Ed. Note: Isn't Robinson related to some famous guy? I thought I heard something about it on the news.] The Beavers, who were undefeated following Barack Obama‘s Inauguration, finally lost to Arizona ending Oregon State’s hopes of riding Obama-mania to an undefeated term. If the Sun Devils can contain Calvin Haynes, they should hand the Beavers a second consecutive defeat.

#15 Memphis at #18 Gonzaga at 9 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Spokane is the site of ESPN GameDay today and it features a match-up of two highly regarded programs that hit rough patches this season, but have rebounded well. Gonzaga appears to have used their victory over Tennessee in Knoxville as a catalyst for their resurgence (Patty Mills‘s injury didn’t hurt either). Memphis, on the other hand, appears to have found its rhythm again with John Calipari‘s decision to move freshman Tyreke Evans from shooting guard to point guard (the kid is lost when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands). Evans has responded with his best play of the season and the Tigers have not lost since the move. Interestingly, both teams dominance in their leagues means that this is a huge game for each in terms of NCAA seeding. A win today would probably be worth 2 seeds on Selection Sunday assuming both teams are able to run the table for the rest of the regular season. Despite the fact that both teams have pretty balanced scoring attacks (4 starters in double figures for each team), the key to this game will likely be the PG match-up of Evans versus Jeremy Pargo. If the more experienced Pargo can outplay Evans, the Bulldogs should be able to run away with this one. If he isn’t, we could be in for a hard-fought game.

News and Notes

• Arizona State‘s Rihards Kuksiks leads the nation in 3-point percentage, but is only third in the Pac-10. How is that possible? Well NCAA statistical leaders need to make a minimum of 2.5 per game from three-point range to qualify, while Pac-10 needs to make one per game and play in 75 percent of the team’s games. Theo Robertson is shooting 56.2% and Michael Roll is shooting 54.5%, both ahead of Kuksiks’s 46.7%. Either way Kuksiks has had a tough time the past two games going 3-for-20 from behind the arc.
• Ben Howland‘s 13-4 record against California is his best against any team in the Pac-10.
• UCLA’s recent victory over Stanford was UCLA’s largest victory over Stanford at Pauley Pavilion in over 30 years. It was also UCLA’s highest scoring game under Howland. UCLA shot 73% from 3-point range and only 62% from the free throw line. Maybe they should start taking their foul shots from behind the arc.
• California, the best three-point shooting team in the nation at 47%, shot 2-for-16 from three-point range against USC.
• UCLA dominated teams this week. The Bruins went 3-0 with average margin of victory over 21 points.
• Darren Collison, who earlier this year broke the UCLA record for consecutive free-throws with 43, is shooting 94.4% from the line, which leads the nation.
• Craig Robinson has turned it around for Oregon State. The Beavers have four wins in the first half of the Pac-10 schedule for the first time since 2002-03.
• After another week of ups and downs in the Pac-10, there are really only two locks for the tournament at this point: UCLA and Washington. Four others (Arizona, Arizona State, California, and USC) still have work to do.

Now onto the awards. . .

Player of the Week: Justin Dentmon
Dentmon averaged 26.5 points in the Huskies two games this week (including 30 against Arizona State), which is 11 points higher than his season average. He did this by shooting 11-for-19 from three-point range.

Honorable Mention
In Arizona’s undefeated week, Jordan Hill averaged 17 points and 12.5 rebounds a game. Chase Budinger also had a big week for the Wildcats averaging 22 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in the two victories. Freshman Klay Thompson, averaged 18 points and 4.5 rebounds per game this week. He scored 28 in Washington State’s victory over the Sun Devils, including shooting 8-for-10 from downtown.

Team of the Week: Arizona
The team had been left for dead and on a Pac-10 three-game losing streak before managing to beat Pac-10 leader Washington. Yes they were at home, but with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill both playing like monsters at the same time, they look scary good. They have always had the talent, they just need to put it together to make a run at it. If Nic Wise keeps playing like he did against Washington they will be tough to stop.

Game of the Week
USC’s one point win at home over Stanford was the best game of the past week. This one went down to the buzzer. Lawrence Hill had a chance at the buzzer from baseline, but his shot was in-and-out. Taj Gibson returned from the flu, to drop 20 points on the Cardinal.

Best game of the upcoming week
02/07, Notre Dame at UCLA- UCLA is still looking for a marquee win out of conference and this would have looked a lot better at the beginning of the season. Notre Dame has been slipping as of late. This would still help the Bruins come seeding time, especially if Notre Dame wins at Cincinnati and starts playing like they were at the beginning of the season.

Team Rankings
1. UCLA (18-4, 8-2)
Last week: 01/29 W 81-66 over Cal at home, 01/31 W 97-63 over Stanford at home, 02/04 W 76-60 over USC at home
Next week: 02/07 at home vs. Notre Dame

After a tough loss at Washington, UCLA bounced back this week with three victories at home at the Pauley Pavilion. Darren Collison scored 18 points for the Bruins who, coupled with Washington’s loss, moved back into a first place tie in the Pac-10. The Bruins got to the line 23 times and hit a season best 91 percent. They put four other players in double figures, Jrue Holiday with 13 points, Josh Shipp with 11, Alfred Aboya with 10, and Michael Roll with 10. A three-point lead a minute into the second half for UCLA ballooned to as much as 19 points. The Bruins also set a season high with 16 steals with 12 in the first half. In their second game of the week the Bruins put a thorough beating on the Cardinal. In the 36-point victory, the Bruins placed the same five scorers in double-figures again. Collison, Aboya, and Holiday all finished with 15 points. Roll added 12 and Shipp 11. UCLA shot 63% from the field and 73% from behind the arc. In the final victory of the week UCLA stomped out cross-town rival USC. The Bruins had a 23-point lead at halftime en route to a 16-point victory. Shipp finished with 19 including 11-for-12 from the free throw line. Aboya had a double-double with 14 points and 12 rebounds and Holiday filled up the stat sheet with 13 points, seven assists, and five rebounds. Nikola Dragovic added 12 points all on three-pointers.

2. Washington (16-5, 7-2)
Last week: 01/29 L 106-97 at Arizona, 01/31 W 84-71 at Arizona State
Next week: 02/05 at California, 02/08 at Stanford

Washington’s winning streak was snapped in Arizona, just a game earlier than anybody envisioned. Despite Jon Brockman’s 27 points and 16 rebounds Washington came up short losing their second Pac-10 game. Justin Dentmon added 23 points and Isaiah Thomas 15, but it was not enough. At one point the Huskies were down by 16 points in the second half. They managed to cut it to three with just over two minutes left. Thomas’ 15 points were on 7-for-21 shooting including 0-for-7 from downtown. In the Huskies second game in the state of Arizona they managed to come away with a victory. Led by Dentmon’s 30 points and Thomas’ 25, the Sun Devils snagged a 13-point victory. They led by 19 points at two separate times in the second half, but allowed ASU back into the game. ASU cut it to six with two minutes left. Then the Huskies went on a 10-3 run to finish the game. Their strategy of double-teaming James Harden worked well holding him to only five points at halftime.

3. Arizona (14-8, 4-5)
Last week: 01/29 W 106-97 over Washington at home, 01/31 W 66-56 over Washington State at home
Next week: 02/05 at Oregon State, 02/07 at Oregon

Arizona climbed back into the Pac-10 race after losing their previous three conference games. The Wildcats victory over the number one team in the Pac-10, Washington, was huge for them. The Wildcats shot 41-for-51 from the foul line including 34-for-40 in the first half. Nic Wise led the way with 14-for-14 from the stripe finishing with a career-high 29 points. Chase Budinger finished with 25 points, his highest scoring game since the second game of the year. Jordan Hill scored 18 points and had 9 rebounds. Against Washington State, Budinger scored 19 points in the 10-point victory. Budinger only hit 1 of his first 12 shots, but hit 4 of his last 5 to finish the game. Budinger also had 11 rebounds and seven assists. Hill added 16 points and 16 rebounds.

4. USC (15-7, 6-4)
Last week: 01/29 W 70-69 over Stanford at home, 01/31 W 73-62 over Cal at home, 02/04 L 76-60 at UCLA
Next week: Off

USC is bank in the hunt for the Pac-10 crown, now sitting alone in third place at 6-4. In the first game of the week they squeaked one out over Stanford. Taj Gibson scored 20 points in the one-point victory. Daniel Hackett and Leonard Washington added 12 points each. In the second game DeMar DeRozan scored 19 points, after not breaking double digits the last two games. Gibson had another big game scoring 12 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. USC’s three-game winning streak was snapped by UCLA. Gibson was shut down scoring only two points and grabbing four rebounds. Dwight Lewis scored 20 points and DeRozan 15, but it was not enough for the Trojans.

5. Arizona State (16-5, 5-4)
Last week: 01/29 L 65-55 to WSU at home, 01/31 L 84-71 to Washington at home
Next week: 02/05 at Oregon, 02/07 at Oregon State

Arizona State had a disappointing week as they lost ground in the conference race going winless in both games. The Sun Devils took on both squads from Washington at home and came away empty. James Harden led the way against Washington State scoring 26 points, almost half the Sun Devils total. Harden only shot 8-for-20 and 8-for-13 from the stripe. Rihards Kuksiks had his second straight awful shooting game going 2-for-10 from three-point range. Arizona State then took on Washington in what was thought to be a game between top tier teams, but both team were coming off a loss. Harden had a tough game scoring only 15 points with 10 coming after halftime. He faced aggressive double-teams throughout the game. Jeff Pendergraph tried picking up the slack scoring 21 points and corralling 14 rebounds, but it was not enough as ASU lost their second straight game.

6. California (16-6, 5-4)
Last week: 01/29 L 81-66 at UCLA, 01/31 L 73-62 at USC
Next week: 02/05 at home vs. Washington, 02/07 at home vs. WSU

The Golden Bears had a frustrating week in Southern California. They dropped both contests to UCLA and USC. Their conference championship hopes took a hit, they are now a full two games behind UCLA and Washington. Theo Robertson scored 19 points and Jerome Randle added 11, but the team got out-rebounded by eleven, allowed UCLA to shoot 55 percent, and turned the ball over 21 times. Cal led the second game as late as nine minutes left in the second half, but they couldn’t hold it. Jamal Boykin finished with 18 points and 10 rebounds. Randle finished with 12 points while shooting 2-for-8 from downtown.

7. Oregon State (10-10, 4-5)
Last week: 01/31 W 57-54 over Oregon at home
Next week: 02/05 at home vs. Arizona, 02/07 at home vs. Arizona State

Oregon State was victorious in the “Civil War”, pitting Oregon State against Oregon. Calvin Haynes scored 15 points and Omari Johnson added 14 points. The Beavers were down by as many as 12 points in the first half and five at halftime. They finally took the lead for good on a Haynes three-pointer with thirteen minutes remaining.

8. Washington State (12-9, 4-5)
Last week: 01/29 W 65-55 at Arizona State, 01/31 L 66-56 at Arizona
Next week: 02/05 at Stanford, 02/07 at California

Washington State was able to steal a game from the Sun Devils to start the week, but was not as successful against the Wildcats. Freshman Klay Thompson scored a career-high 28 points on 8-for-10 shooting from 3-point range. Aaron Baynes added 22 points and had nine rebounds. The two players combined for 77 percent of the Cougars’ points. Against Arizona, Thompson did not have the hot hand anymore shooting 2-for-7 from downtown. Taylor Rochestie led the way with 22 points and Baynes finished with 12. WSU had a five-point lead at halftime, but gave up 43 second half points.

9. Stanford (13-6, 3-6)
Last week: 01/29 L 70-69 at USC, 01/31 L 97-63 at UCLA
Next week: 02/05 at home vs. WSU, 02/08 at home vs. Washington

Stanford fell further down the Pac-10 totem pole with a winless week on the road. They only loss by one at USC, but Lawrence Hill’s jumper at the buzzer went in-and-out. Hill finished with 19 points and eight rebounds and Landry Fields added 18 points. Stanford lost the lead with nine minutes left in the second half and was never able to get it back despite closing within one multiple times. The Cardinal then got handed a 34-point loss at the hands of UCLA. Stanford only put one player in double-digits, Anthony Goods, who finished with 15 points.

10. Oregon (6-15, 0-9)
Last week: 01/31 L 57-54 at Oregon State,
Next week: 02/05 at home vs. Arizona State

In Oregon’s only game of the week they lost by three at Oregon State. Tajuan Porter finished with 22 points for the Ducks. Oregon held a five-point lead at halftime, but lost it for good with thirteen minutes left in the second half. Matt Humphrey had a three-point heave from just inside halfcourt with no time left.

Game of the Day
#3 Duke at #10 Clemson at 9 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Our second top 10 match-up of the week. Once again the road team is the higher ranked team, but I feel like this time they are also the favorites coming in to the game. All of you know about Duke by now thanks to their frequent appearances on national TV so I will keep it brief. Kyle Singler and Gerald Henderson have emerged as their two most consistent players. Usually that is enough to get them by most teams even if they only get minimal support from the rest of the team. However, when that happens against quality teams the result isn’t always that good (even if they come really really close). The key for the Blue Devils in this game and for the rest of the season will be the play of Brian Zoubek (go ahead and snicker Duke haters) and Nolan Smith. Zoubek merely needs to be a mediocre 7-footer and Coach K and the rest of the Blue Devils staff will be happy. Smith, who replaced Greg Paulus in the starting lineup, has to improve his decision-making. He must have one of the worst assist-to-turnover ratios (1.03 to 1) of any starting PG on a top team in the nation. On the other side of the ball, Clemson may be the most under-appreciated team in the country. I’m not sure if it is the Tigers’ recent history of falling apart down the stretch, but I never hear anybody mentioning them as a team that could make a run in March despite the fact that they probably have the most reasonable losses of any team in the country (Wake Forest and at UNC). The key for Oliver Purnell‘s team will be to have Trevor Booker dominate on the inside. I doubt that Duke will let him play against Zoubek so he will probably have to do it against Singler, which could make for an interesting match-up. If Booker can win that match-up, Clemson will have a shot. After that they will need a strong game out of K.C. Rivers and hope to contain Duke’s outside shooters (particularly Jon Scheyer). I think Clemson will keep it close until midway through the 2nd half when Duke will go on a run and pull away to win by about a dozen.

Worth Watching
West Virginia at #20 Syracuse at 7 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: The Mountaineers are a a perfect example of why it is so hard to read Big East teams. They are only 4-4 in the conference, but all 4 of those losses were to top 10 teams (UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Marquette). Likewise, Syracuse comes in having lost 3 straight and 4 of 5, but 3 of those losses have been on the road (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, and Providence) and the other to one of the hottest teams (Louisville) in the country. The Orangemen should be able to break their recent skid if they can contain Da’Sean Butler and Alex Ruoff, but a lot of that will have to do with whether or not they will have their full compliment of players available. Mookie Jones is done for the year with a hip injury, but someone will have to step up as Jim Boeheim can’t expect to get 62 points from Jonny Flynn and Eric Devendorf every game (and even that didn’t work in their last game).

#19 Minnesota at #14 Michigan State at 8:30 PM on The Big Ten Network: What is going on with the Spartans? Tom Izzo‘s team has lost back-to-back games at the Breslin Center to pretty weak competition (Northwestern and Penn State). Just two weeks ago everyone was talking about this team as a potential Final 4 contender with the return of Goran Suton. Unfortunately for Izzo, the Spartans will be without Raymar Morgan, who is out with “walking pneumonia”. To turn things around, the Spartans will need improved play out of Kalin Lucas, who still boasts an impressive 3.09 to 1 assist to TO ratio, but most of that is from his early season play. They will have to do it against a Gopher team that held Illinois to a ridiculous 36 points in their last game. Keep an eye on Al Nolen and Ralph Sampson III in this one for the Gophers as they will be matched up against Lucas and Suton respectively.

#6 Wake Forest at Miami (FL) at 7:30 PM on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: Wake needs to develop some consistency if they want to be a national championship contender. We know that they can beat the big boys as they knocked off UNC, Clemson, and Duke in a three week stretch. The question is why they can’t maintain that level of play when they go up against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech (both losses). Dino Gaudio will need to figure this out if he wants to get this team up to the level of Duke and UNC at the end of the season. Maybe it’s just a focus thing, which hopefully shouldn’t be an issue in March. Either way, this trip to Miami should be a nice challenge for the Demon Deacons. Jeff Teague will be matched up against Jack McClinton and Al-Farouq Aminu will be up against Dwayne Collins. I think Miami may be able to hold its own in those match-ups. Unfortunately for Frank Haith, the Hurricanes run into depth problems after their top 2 while the Demon Deacons run much deeper. Perhaps Haith should look into giving more PT to his ridiculously athletic freshman DeQuan Jones.

#16 Villanova at Providence at 8 PM on ESPN Full Court and ESPN360.com: Villanova finally got the signature win we were asking for by beating Pittsburgh last week in the last college basketball game at the Spectrum. This time they will have to do it on the road against a Friar team that was playing well before they ran into the UConn buzzsaw. Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds will need to have solid games if Jay Wright‘s crew is going to pull out a rare Big East road win against a Providence team that is actually above them in the Big East standings. Providence will need a solid effort out of its 8-deep rotation including Weyinmi Efejuku and Jonathan Kale to defend its home court tonight.

Keep an Eye On
Notre Dame at Cincinnati at 7:30 PM on ESPN360.com: Mike Brey needs  Kyle McAlarney to snap out of his funk and start helping Luke Harangody out or the Fighting Irish might be looking at trip to the NIT this year. This is a game Notre Dame needs to win if they expect to make the NCAA tournament.

Tennessee at Arkansas at 8 PM on Raycom, Fox Sports South, and ESPN360.com: Can freshman Scotty Hopson be the one to reenergize the Vols who have struggled to play up their pre-season #8 ranking? Bruce Pearl might want to give him some more PT against the confusing Arkansas team that beat Texas and Oklahoma (the Sooners only loss), but is just 1-5 in the SEC.

Texas A&M at #2 Oklahoma at 9 PM on The Big 12 Network, ESPN Full Court, and ESPN360.com: Watch this one for Blake Griffin, who will be your national Player of the Year barring some freak injury or sketchy voting. I guess the Aggies played Oklahoma close at College Station so this could be a decent game, but since it is in Norman I doubt it will be that close after the half unless the Sooners are already looking ahead to Texas and Kansas two weeks from now.

USC at #12 UCLA at 10:30 PM on Fox Sports: Ben Howland‘s will be going for a sweep of the California Pac-10 teams at Pauley Pavilion against their cross-town rivals. The Trojans are my pick for secretly good team that nobody is talking about, but could make a run in March. Watch this one for the battle of the freshmen: DeMar DeRozan and Jrue Holiday. They won’t be matched up against each other, but it should be fun to see Josh Shipp guard DeRozan. As an added bonus, you might get to see Lil’ Romeo (ok, maybe not).

Check in with RTC on Saturday all day long as we piggyback the slowly burning wick of Boom Goes the Dynamite, your virtually live weekly journal of notes and observations about the day’s biggest games. 

Saturday
Game of the Day
#3 UConn at #19 Notre Dame at 7 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: The Irish will be looking to bounce back from consecutive road losses (at Louisville and at Syracuse), but that will be a tall task (insert Hasheem Thabeet joke here) against UConn–a team that many consider the best in the Big East (not just based on ranking). Reigning Big East POY Luke Harangody will have his hands full on the inside battling Thabeet and Jeff Adrien. The match-up on the outside should be even more interesting with the Irish backcourt of Kyle McAlarney, Tory Jackson, and Ryan Ayers battling A.J. Price, Jerome Dyson, and Kemba Walker. I’m not sure if the Irish have anybody to contend with slashing ability of UConn, but the key to this game will likely be the production of Price and Walker.

Although UConn is clearly the superior team in this match-up, they will have a tough time in South Bend as the Fighting Irish come into the game with a NCAA-best 44-game home winning streak. Mike Brey desperately needs this game if he wants to establish his team in the upper half of the league. A win for UConn would solidify their place as the Big East favorites and build on their already strong resume. It will be a hard-fought game, but I think in the end Jim Calhoun‘s squad will end the streak tonight.

Others to Watch
#11 UCLA at Washington at 4 PM on FSN: After a slow start (2-3), the Huskies have rallied to win 11 of their last 12 with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT to Cal. I’m not sure what clicked up there in Seattle, but now they are looking like a Pac-10 contender. If they want to challenge for the league title, they will have to knock off UCLA, the current kings of the Pac-10. I’m sure that Ben Howland has been all over his Bruins for their awful execution down the stretch last Saturday in their loss at home to Arizona State. It does not look like the Bruins have fully recovered from that meltdown as they nearly lost in Pullman to Washington State Thursday night and only survived thanks to a career-high 20 points from Nikola Dragovic. UCLA will need more consistent play from its perimeter players (Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Jrue Holldiay) or hope they find an inside game if they want to make yet another Final 4 appearance. For those of you who haven’t been following the Huskies, keep an eye on their diminutive freshman point guard Isaiah Thomas (15.8 PPG and 3.2 APG). It looks like is a future star in the Pac-10. Let’s hope that he isn’t charge of personnel moves/recruiting.

#23 Baylor at #5 Oklahoma at 4 PM on ESPNU: This is a match-up of two of the top 3 teams in the Big 12 (at least according to the polls). The Bears rely on a balanced attack with 5 players averaging double figures led by Curtis Jerrells, who averages 17.1 PPG. Scott Drew will need all 5 guys to hit their averages and hope for a little luck to steal one in Norman as Oklahoma is the clear favorite in the league. They are led by national POY candidate Blake Griffin who comes in averaging a ridiculous 22.3 PPG and 13.6 RPG. If he can get consistent support from Willie Warren and Tony Crocker this Sooner team could make deep run in March because I don’t think anybody in the country can guard Griffin.

Keep an eye on
Maryland at #2 Duke at Noon on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Even though this has traditionally been a heated rivalry I normally would not keep this game here except for the fact that if Duke wins they will be your new #1 team in the country. If they do get to #1, John Stevens is pretty sure that you will hear about it.

UW-Milwaukee at #17 Butler at Noon on Time Warner Sports 32, ESPN Full Court, and ESPN360.com: Butler is clearly the class of the Horizon League, but UW-Milwaukee may be the second best team in the conference so if anybody is going to knock Butler off in their conference tournament and create total chaos on Selection Sunday it may well be the Panthers.

#24 Memphis at Tennessee at 3:30 PM on CBS: It’s amazing that this match-up, which featured two powerhouses last year, has been reduced to this level. Memphis has the excuse of losing Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts. The Vols certainly lost some key players, but after coming into the season ranked in the top 10, this has to be a very disappointing start for Bruce Pearl. This would be a good way to start to resurrect the Vols’ season.

Wisconsin at #24 Illinois at 4 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Bruce Weber will be looking for his Fighting Illini to continue their impressive start against a Badger team that is coming off 3 straight losses with the last 2 coming in OT.

#13 Xavier at LSU at 8 PM on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: Normally I would hype this game as a mid-major team trying to steal one against the mighty BCS, but I can’t really do that this year with Butler ranked 13th and the SEC’s conspicuous absence from the polls (Florida is ranked in one, but will be gone with that awful loss to South Carolina). Ignoring that, this would be a great win for Xavier to add to their already strong resume for Selection Sunday, but they shouldn’t be overconfident heading into Baton Rouge as the Tigers having been playing well this season and are undefeated at home. [Yes. I realize I just warned Xavier not to be overconfident heading into a road game against a SEC team.]

Sunday
Game of the Day
#12 Louisville at #8 Syracuse at Noon on Big East Network, ESPN Full Court, and ESPN360.com: Finally we have a great game on Sunday. After several weekends with loaded Saturdays followed by a set of duds on Sunday, we get the hottest team in the Big East (Louisville) traveling to play at the team with the most to prove (Syracuse). We at RTC had been critical of Rick Pitino‘s Cardinals when they started slowly but they seem to have turned it around although it seems like the nation did not seem to take notice until they knocked off then #1 Pittsburgh. On the other sideline, Jim Boeheim‘s squad will be looking to bounce back from a difficult stretch where they lost games on the road to Georgetown and Pittsburgh with a win at home against Notre Dame sandwiched between those losses.

This game will likely come down to which team’s strength wins out. Syracuse has the edge on the outisde with Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, and Andy Rautins having the upper hand in their match-up Earl Clark and Edgar Sosa. Louisville will have the edge on the inside with Samardo Samuels and Terrence Williams going against Arinze Onuaku and Paul Harris. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched with Syracuse’s advantages being perimeter play and home court while Louisville’s advantages being inside play and momentum. I’ll go with the easy 2s and momentum and take Louisville to continue their current hot streak.

Others to Watch
#7 Michigan State at Ohio State at 3:45 PM on CBS: OSU had been playing better before its trip to Illinois the other night.  Still, West Virginia is the only team to get them on their home court this season, so Michigan St. had best bring a better game than it brought Wed. night against Northwestern, or they’ll be staring at 2 Ls this week.

#4 Pittsburgh at West Virginia at 4 PM on Big East Network, ESPN Full Court, and ESPN360.com: This game suddenly became even more interesting considering how dominant the Mountaineers looked tonight in DC against Georgetown.  Pitt recovered nicely with a home win against Syracuse, and they match up very well with the undersized WVU team, but so did Georgetown.  One thing you can be sure about in this one – most players will leave this one black and blue.

Virginia Tech at Miami at 5:30 PM on FSN: Anyone want to lay odds on which Virginia Tech team shows up coming off their victory over #1 Wake Forest on Wednesday?  Will it be the Hokie team that lost to Seton Hall and Georgia, or the one who led Wake from start to finish?  We’re betting it’s the SH/Georgia version.

Georgia Tech at #9 Clemson at 7:45 PM on FSN: This is a really weak set of FSN games this weekend (frankly the entire weekend is disappointing).  Still, if you’ve got nothing else going on, you can spend a couple of hours watching Paul Hewitt try to save his job and Oliver Purnell try to convince you that the Tigers are legit.