Sam Wasson, Co-Founder and Editor ofbleedCrimson.net covering New Mexico State athletics, and Kevin McCarthy, Founder ofParsing The WAC, are the RTC correspondents for the WAC.
Postseason Preview
It’s Utah State and everyone else. At least that’s what it looks like on the outside looking in. However, this could be one of the most wide open tournaments in years. Anyone can beat anyone. Heading into the final week of play, there was a scenario in which five teams could have finished 9-7 and tied for second. While it didn’t turn out that way, the teams are still tightly bunched and it should lend itself to a few upsets.
The hottest team coming into the tournament is Boise State, having won seven in a row. Right behind them is Utah State with five in a row. Idaho earned the 4-seed and is the only team to have handed Utah State a loss. Hawai’icould be the darkhorse in this tournament as the 5-seed. If they make it past Adrian Oliver and San Jose State, they certainly will have revenge on their minds against Idaho, who swept the season series. The Warriors are the only team to push Utah State in both regular season meetings and have what it takes on a neutral court to upset the regular season champs.
On the other side of the bracket, an exciting showdown between New MexicoState and Boise State looms in the semifinals. That is, if the Aggies can get past their quarterfinal game. They face the winner of the Nevada/Fresno State game and both of those teams beat the Aggies this year. Should fans be lucky enough to see a Boise State/New Mexico State game, it could be the game of the tournament in terms of excitement. These two teams played an epic triple-overtime championship game in the 2008 tournament, with Boise State coming out on top. The Broncos and Aggies split the season series and the average final score of the past nine games is 92-85.
New Mexico State is the defending tournament chance and could make a run to its second straight title and third in five years IF they play with a higher level of energy. Head coach Marvin Menzies is 10-3 in his tournament career and knows how to get his players up for tournament games. The Aggies have made it to at least the semifinal game each year they’ve been in the WAC.
Sam Wasson, Co-Founder and Editor ofbleedCrimson.net covering New Mexico State athletics, and Kevin McCarthy, Founder ofParsing The WAC, are the RTC correspondents for the WAC.
A Look Back
The league wrapped up the second to last week of conference play and there was some shuffling near the top. New Mexico State, which had held the second place spot since the mid January, slipped to third place after getting swept on the road at San Jose State and at Hawai’i. Nevada, which had likewise occupied a top four spot since early in the conference season was swept at home by Idaho and Boise State dropping from third to sixth place. The Broncos have won five games in a row, including four conference games, since losing six of seven in the middle portion of the conference schedule and are poised to claim the coveted 2-seed. All that needs to happen for the Broncos is a win at home on senior night against San Jose State and a loss by New Mexico State to either No. 25/21 UtahState or Nevada. Idaho is also sitting in an ideal spot with a game against Fresno State. A win by them would secure a top four seed and a first round bye in next week’s conference tournament. Louisiana Tech was eliminated from tournament contention as they lost to Hawai’i and San Jose State.
Player of the Week: Boise State’s La’Shard Anderson was named the Player of the Week for February 21–27 after leading Boise State to a pair of road wins last week at Fresno State (70-56) and Nevada (72-66). With the team’s road sweep last week, Boise State moved from fourth place to second place in the conference standings. Anderson scored a career-high 33 points at Fresno State on 11-of-14 shooting (.786), including 4-of-6 from three-point range (.667) and 7-of-8 from the free throw line he also added four assists and three steals. Two nights later he scored a team-high 23 points at Nevada, going 7-11 from the floor, 2-4 from beyond the arc and 7-of-10 from the charity stripe and added five assists and three steals. In the two wins Anderson averaged 28.0 points, 4.5 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals per game. He shot 18-25 (72 percent) from the field, 6-of-10 (60 percent) from three-point range and 14-18 (77.8 percent) from the free throw line.
Power Rankings
1. Utah State (26-3, 13-1)
Up Next: 03/02 at New Mexico State (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. MT), 03/05 at Louisiana Tech
With New Mexico State’s loss, the northern Aggies earned the regular season title outright and Utah State’s senior group marks four regular season titles in four years. The UtAgs capped it off with a revenge victory over Idaho, the only team to defeat them thus far in regular season conference play. The UtAgs wrap up the regular season with a road trip to Las Cruces and Ruston. A road sweep would give Utah State the best regular season conference record (15-1) since Rick Majerus‘ Utah squad finished 14-0 in the 1998-99 season. USU is 64-21 in WAC regular season games since joining the league in 2005-06.
2. Boise State (17-11, 9-6)
Up Next: 03/05 vs. San Jose State
“A pair of victories could have them sitting as high as second place after the weekend depending on what happens to New Mexico State and Nevada.” Those were our words last week, and Boise State went out and got a pair of victories and now sit in second place, a win and a New Mexico State loss away from the 2-seed and a double-bye into the WAC Tournament semifinals. All that stands in the path of a victory is San Jose State and Adrian Oliver‘s 24.3 PPG. The Broncos head into WAC play as one of the hottest teams having won five in a row, the longest win streak in the WAC and they’ve done so winning three straight on the road. The Broncos will take a brief non-conference break to host Cal State-Bakersfield on Wednesday night.
3. New Mexico State (14-15, 8-6)
Up Next: 03/02 vs. No. 25/21 Utah State (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. MT), 03/05 vs. Nevada
The Aggies blew a golden opportunity to wrap up second place and a double-bye after losing twice on the road last week. The Aggies lost 72-70 to San Jose State in overtime and 76-70 to Hawai’i. The Aggies got no production from their interior as the duo of Hamidu Rahman and Tshilidzi Nephawe combined to go 0-for-18 with 17 rebounds and 12 personal fouls in the two games on the road. Junior forward Troy Gillenwater was doubled-up in the scoring column by San Jose State’s Adrian Oliver in the showdown of the league’s two top scorers. Oliver scored 36 points while Gillenwater scored 18 and missed a potential game-winning three in overtime. The Aggies host rival Utah State on Wednesday night in a nationally televised game on ESPN2 and then close out the regular season on Saturday against rival Nevada where they will bid adios to their lone senior, hometown product, GordoCastillo (8.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG).
4. Idaho (16-12, 8-7)
Up Next: 02/03 vs. Fresno State, 02/05 vs. Seattle
The Vandals earned an impressive season sweep of Nevada but lost to Utah State 84-68 but still earned a split in that series and moved into position for a top four finish and a first round bye. The Vandals must take care of business against visiting Fresno State on Thursday night before finishing up with a non-conference game against Seattle on Senior Night.
5. Hawai’i (17-10, 7-7)
Up Next: 03/03 at San Jose State, 03/05 at Fresno State
A three-game conference win streak (Nevada, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State), coinciding with being at home in the islands, has Hawaii looking and feeling fine. This past week, LT fell to the Rainbow Warriors 71-58 with four UH players in double figures scoring and then it was a 76-70 triumph against the Aggies out of Las Cruces, the then second best team in the WAC. In the latter, sophomore center Vander Joaquim totaled an 18/15 double-double while senior frontcourter Bill Amis was at 14/11 with his contribution. Zane Johnson led all scorers with 22 points. Forward Joston Thomas has returned from his personal absence and matters seem patched up between him and coach Gib Arnold. Next up is a trip to San Jose to battle the Spartans and then heading south to face Fresno State. These two road games will be indicators of the real-ness of the Rainbow Warriors.
6. Nevada (11-17, 7-7)
Up Next: 02/24 vs. Idaho, 02/26 vs. Boise State
Oh, what a difference a week makes. The Wolf Pack went into last week dreaming of a two-seed but came out of the week staring up at five teams. Nevada’s home losses were a bit unexpected for a team that had won seven of their previous nine games. The Pack heads east to take on hapless Louisiana Tech and rival New Mexico State. A road sweep could have the Wolf Pack faithful happy once again and could deliver Nevada as high as a three-seed in the WAC tournament. A loss or two could doom the young squad to the second half of the standings and no byes.
7. San Jose State (15-12, 5-9)
Up Next: 03/03 vs. Hawai’i, 03/05 at Boise State
After two wins against Big Sky Conference opponents, the Spartans took down New Mexico State 72-70 in overtime and then Louisiana Tech 72-60. AdrianOliver scored 36 points against NMSU (half of SJSU’s total) and followed up with 23 versus LT. San Jose State is currently tied with Fresno State so the battle for who finishes seventh and eighth and the resulting placement in the WAC tourney will probably come down to the last game of the season. The team in eighth will have to go through Utah State to reach the conference finals. Next up is aloha-ing Hawaii to San Jose and then the regular season closes out with a final game up in Boise.
8. Fresno State (13-16, 5-9)
Up Next: 03/03 at Idaho, 03/05 vs. Hawai’i
A three-game WAC losing streak and a current tie for the last playoff spot is what’s facing the Bulldogs this week. A 70-56 home loss to Boise State, in which FSU shot 17-46 overall and 6-22 from long distance, with Greg Smith totaling just four points, has coach Steve Cleveland‘s squad teetering. Can they head north or is the elevator dropping? It is a young Bulldog team, one with promise but there are definite holes to be filled. A ready-to-contribute physical inside player to team with Smith is a must as is a freshman fitting such a description to groom. The backcourt needs a consistent distance shooter, hopefully someone with size and the point needs a dribble-drive creator. Next up is a never-easy road game up at Idaho followed by hosting Hawaii. Junior wing Tim Steed is expected to miss at least the Vandal matchup due to suspension.
9. Louisiana Tech (12-18, 2-12)
Up Next: 03/03 vs. Nevada, 03/05 vs. No. 25/21 Utah State
The end is near. With a pair of losses on the road last week the Bulldogs were eliminated from WAC tournament contention. It could be an ugly end to an ugly season. The Bulldogs will still likely be without suspended point guard DeAndreBrown and playing shorthanded against the Wolf Pack and Aggies is not a fun way to end the season.
A Look Ahead
While the participants for next week’s conference tournament have been decided, seeds two through nine have not. There is potential for five teams to finish the season at 9-7 and tied for second place, a true indicator of the mediocrity (some might call it parity) of the WAC this season. Even seeds eight and nine are TBD as 5-9 San Jose State and 5-9 Fresno State could both finish at 7-9. It will be one wild and crazy sprint to the finish line for what promises to be a wild and crazy WAC tournament next week.
Sam Wasson, Co-Founder and Editor of bleedCrimson.net covering New Mexico State athletics, and Kevin McCarthy, Founder of Parsing The WAC, are the RTC correspondents for the WAC.
A Look Back
Utah State all but locked up the regular season title this past week as they swept their road trip to San Jose and Honolulu, then downed Nevada at home. The trip wasn’t easy, as they were once again pushed to the brink by the Warriors, but they pulled out an 89-84 double-overtime victory and with two losses by Idaho and BoiseState, the UtAgs have a healthy three-game lead over the rest of the field with New MexicoState three games behind in the loss column with just seven conference games remaining. New Mexico State made the biggest jump of the week as they effectively went from fifth place (after tiebreakers) to solo second place with a home sweep of Boise State (96-87 OT) and Idaho (73-65). The southern Aggies should send their eastern neighbors, Louisiana Tech, a “Thank You” card as the Bulldogs pulled out of a seven-game nosedive to stun Idaho (71-56) and Boise State (70-60). Nevada sits a half-game behind NM State after avenging a conference loss to Fresno State. Just past the midway point of conference play, the top of the standings look strangely familiar as Utah State, New Mexico State and Nevada inhabit the top three spots, just as they have during the past five seasons.
R-E-S-P-E-C-T: With 14 of the Top 25 teams losing last week, Utah State did itself a favor by winning both road games. Even though it wasn’t easy, the UtAgs climbed #21 in the Coaches Poll and #22 in the AP Poll.
Bracketbusters: Utah State and St. Mary’s will battle in the lone ESPNU Bracketbusters televised game involving a WAC team. Their battle will take place at 9:00 p.m. on Saturday of Bracketbusters Weekend on ESPN2. The UtAgs are the lone ranked team in the Bracketbusters field, with St. Mary’s being one of the 14 Top 25 teams that were victimized.
The remaining eight WAC teams will play on Saturday, February 19, in non-televised Bracketbusters matchups.
Boise State at UC Santa Barbara
Hawai‘i at UC Davis
Idaho at Montana State
UC Riverside at Fresno State
Georgia State at Louisiana Tech
UC Irvine at Nevada
Northern Colorado at New Mexico State
Weber State at San Jose State
Player of the Week: Utah State’s Brian Green was named the Player of the Week after scoring a career-high 25 points and tied his career high with six rebounds, finishing 8-9 from the field, 5-5 from three-point range and 4-4 at the free throw line against San Jose State. Green also tied a school record for shooting percentage from three in the game, which is remarkable, considering Utah State produced prolific three-point shooter Jaycee Carroll. Against Hawai‘i, Green posted 22 points, three rebounds and three assists. Green hit a pair of game-tying shots as he tied it at 66 to send the game to overtime on a long two-pointer, and then hit a 30-footer late in the first overtime to tie the game at 73, sending the teams into the second extra period. Green then sank four straight free throws in the final six seconds of the second overtime to seal the UtAgs’ victory. In the two games Green averaged 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 steals per game. He shot 68.2 percent (15-22) from the field, 68.2 percent (8-13) from beyond the arc and 90 percent (9-10) from the free throw line.
Power Rankings
1. Utah State (21-2, 10-0)
Up Next: 02/05 vs. Boise State
We mentioned last week that the trip to the islands could spell an upset for the UtAgs and it nearly did. Utah State escaped the island of O’ahu thanks to the heroics of Player of the Week Brian Green. The Broncos handled Nevada with ease at the Spectrum on Wednesday night in an ESPN2 showdown, and Boise State comes knocking on Saturday. The Aggies have now won 16 consecutive games, which is the third-longest active win streak in the country behind only Ohio State (22) and Coastal Carolina (18). For those college basketball fans who didn’t stay up for Wednesday’s game or are otherwise unfamiliar with the atmosphere at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan, it is one of the toughest in college basketball and the student section is second to none, as can be seen in the videos below.
2. New Mexico State (12-11, 6-3)
Up Next: 02/03 at Fresno State, 02/07 vs. Louisiana Tech
The roller coaster ride continues for the Aggies, who jumped from fifth place to second with a pair of home victories last week against Boise State (in overtime) and Idaho. New Mexico State rallied from deficits in both games. Against Boise State the Aggies shot 47 free throws and did not miss a shot in overtime, going 5-5 from the floor and 13-13 from the free throw line while scoring an astounding 23 points in the five extra minutes. Against Idaho, hometown senior Gordo Castillo notched a game-high 19 points and hit three crucial three pointers down the stretch in the second half. The Aggies hit the road to take on struggling Fresno State and then return home to face a suddenly rejuvenated Louisiana Tech squad.
3. Nevada (8-14, 5-4)
Up Next: 02/05 vs. San Jose State
Nevada once again had some difficulty with Fresno State but unlike the first meeting, the young Wolf Pack were able to close out the game. Dario Hunt put on a clinic, finishing 9-11 from the field with 24 points and 11 rebounds. Freshman point guard Deonte Burton continues to light up the scoreboard, with a 17-point outings. The Pack couldn’t avenge an earlier defeat in Reno, falling 67-45 on national television. The Wolf Pack led the first meeting by ten points with 14 minutes left to play, but could not seal the deal. Nevada now has a few days to lick its wounds before hosting San Jose State on Saturday.
4. Boise State (12-9, 5-4)
Up Next: 01/27 at New Mexico State, 01/29 at Louisiana Tech
Boise State lost another barnburner against New Mexico State falling 96-87 in overtime. A 3-20 performance from three-point distance spelled doom for the Broncos. Perhaps suffering a bit of a hangover from the loss in the desert, Boise State dropped their second straight conference game, falling to Louisiana Tech 70-60. The Broncos shot just 3-17 from three in that game and for the road trip shot just 6-37 (16.2 percent). Boise State hosts Hawai’i and then travels to Logan to take on league-leader Utah State.
5. Idaho (12-9, 5-4)
Up Next: 02/03 vs. San Jose State, 02/05 vs. Hawai’i
After a disastrous road trip that saw them give up the first league victory to Louisiana Tech and lose to New Mexico State (losing the season series in the process), the Vandals return home where they’ll try to regroup against San Jose State and Hawai’i. A home sweep could put them into the coveted top four as in-state rival Boise State must take on Utah State this week.
6. Hawai’i (12-9, 3-6)
Up Next: 02/03 at Boise State, 02/05 at Idaho
A pair of homecourt victories against Fresno State and San Jose State led to a packed house and major enthusiasm versus visiting league power Utah State. The Rainbow Warriors played tough, losing 89-84 in two overtimes. Bill Amis has been a double-double machine, posting 15 and 12 against USU. Guard/wing Zane Johnson has been in-and-out offensively but nailed six treys in seven attempts versus the Aggies. Next comes a road trip to the land of Famous Potatoes and matchups against Boise State and Idaho. Can UH maintain the momentum on foreign courts where they sport just a 1-3 record in conference play?
7. Louisiana Tech (11-12, 2-7)
Up Next: 02/05 at Fresno State (ESPNU), 02/07 at New Mexico State
A brief reprieve from the WAC power rankings basement for the league’s eastern Bulldogs as they stunned both Idaho schools last week winning by 15 over Idaho and by 10 over Boise State. Olu Ashaolu had a monstrous game against the Vandals with 24 points and 18 rebounds in 37 minutes. He also had three assists, two steals and a block. Ashaolu followed that up with a 15-point, ten-rebound performance against the Broncos. Kenyon McNeaill scored 21 points against Idaho and followed it up with 10 against Boise State. The Bulldogs will look to continue their newfound momentum as they head back out on the road for the Battle of the Bone Part II against Fresno State and then to Las Cruces to take on second place New Mexico State.
8. San Jose State (10-10, 2-7)
Up Next: 02/03 at Idaho, 02/05 at Nevada
A 67-61 loss in Hawaii was followed by an 84-65 L against visiting Utah State. However, the Spartans turned it around versus Fresno State, powered by Adrian Oliver‘s 28 points, 11 boards and eight assists. The Spartans buried 10-of-18 three-point attempts versus the Bulldogs. Justin Graham missed the Utah State game with ankle difficulties but returned in the win over Fresno State. Former starting center Brylle Kamen is still suspended indefinitely. Roadin’ it to Idaho followed by Nevada are the next contests.
8. Fresno State (8-12, 3-6)
Up Next: 01/20 at Hawai’i, 01/24 vs. Seattle
Coming off four consecutive WAC losses (and a trio of league victories prior to that), the Bulldogs hosted Seattle and downed the Redhawks 86-56. Then, it was back to WAC action. A trip to Nevada produced a 79-76 loss and tripping to San Jose State became a 78-60 L. Rx: Greg Smith needs a pair of other point producers, preferably from middle distance and longer, in order to produce the space in which he can maneuver inside. But that hasn’t been occurring. Smith placed third in the number of shot taken on his team versus the Spartans. Junior wing Tim Steed has enjoyed some high-scoring games but dipped a bit in the last two. Freshman backcourter Kevin Olekaibe poured in 29 points against SJSU but is up-and-down. Steven Shepp possesses a 32/10 assist-to-turnover ration and is excellent on the break, but his shooting percentages are mired around 25%. Coach Cleveland needs to land another solid big … and keep Smith from turning pro. Hosting New Mexico State and then Louisiana Tech come up next.
A Look Ahead
Boise State invades Logan this weekend to try to slow Utah State’s momentum, but after the big win over Nevada, it’s tough to picture any WAC team coming to Logan and escaping with a win. The race for the 2-4 spots in the conference is heating up with four teams fighting for three spots and all are within a game of each other in the loss column. The same can be said for the bottom half of the league as four teams battle for three spots and all four are within a game of each other.
Sam Wasson, Co-Founder and Editor of bleedCrimson.net covering New Mexico State athletics, and Kevin McCarthy, Founder of Parsing The WAC, are the RTC correspondents for the WAC.
A Look Back
The WAC finished up non-conference play and no team did better than the Hawai’i in closing out its non-conference season. Playing shorthanded, the Warriors hung tough with the ACC’s Florida State and then picked up wins over Utah (just its tenth in 57 tries) and a short-handed Mississippi State team from the SEC (playing without Renardo Sidney and Elgin Bailey). New Mexico State lost by 20 to St. Mary’s and Nevada lost by 30 at Washington and by four at Portland while Boise State also lost by nine at Portland.
Player of the Week: San Jose State’s Adrian Oliver was named the Player of the Week for the week of Dec. 20-26. Oliver scored a career-high 42 points in just 25 minutes of play in a 95-62 win over Puget Sound. The 42 points broke the 30-year old San Jose State single-game scoring record of 40 points. Oliver also broke the SJSU single-game mark for the most points in a half with 30, besting his own mark of 25 which he set last season. He also set a San Jose State record for most consecutive three-point baskets made in a game with seven and tied the school record for most threes made in a single game. Oliver out-scored Puget Sound by himself in the first half of the contest, 30-29. In the game, Oliver tallied 42 points on 12-of-15 (80 percent) shooting from the field. He hit 7-of-9 (77.8 percent) shots from three-point range and was 11-of-13 (84.6 percent) from the free throw line. He also recorded three rebounds, four assists, one block and one steal.
Top 10 Scorers Heading Into Conference Play:
Adrian Oliver (SJSU) – 25.8 PPG
Robert Arnold (BSU) – 16.2 PPG
DeAndre Brown (LTU) – 16.1 PPG
Justin Graham (SJSU) – 16.1 PPG
Olu Ashaolu (LTU) – 15.4 PPG
Zane Johnson (UH) – 14.4 PPG
Tai Wesley (USU) – 13.8 PPG
La’Shard Anderson (BSU) – 13.5 PPG
Malik Story (NEV) – 13.3 PPG
Dario Hunt (NEV) – 13.1 PPG
Top 10 Rebounders Heading Into Conference Play:
Dario Hunt (NEV) – 10.2 RPG
Olu Ashaolu (LTU) – 9.1
Brady Jardine (USU) – 8.6
Tai Wesley (USU) – 8.3
Wil Carter (SJSU) – 7.9
Joaquim Vander (UH) – 7.1
Shawn Henderson (UI) – 6.4
Matt Ballard (SJSU) – 6.2
Brandon Wiley (UI) – 6.0
Greg Smith (FSU) – 6.0
Power Rankings
1. Utah State (11-2)
Up Next: 12/29 vs. Hawai’i, 12/31 vs. San Jose State
Utah State heads into conference play as the only WAC team in the RPI Top 100 (56th) but has dropped over 20 spots in the last two weeks despite not losing any games. Utah State sports the league’s best record at 11-2, however, they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row schedule-wise. Believe it or not, their best win (based on RPI) is a win over 4-8 Long Beach State and four of their last five victories have come against teams with RPIs higher than 230 including last week’s pastings of Western Michigan and Troy. The UtAgs open up conference play at home versus a resurgent Hawai’i squad on Wednesday night and then host San Jose State, also a team playing well, on Friday night. Tai Wesley is one of just three WAC players currently in the Top 10 in both scoring and rebounding in the league.
2. Hawai’i (7-2)
Up Next: 12/29 at Utah State, 12/31 at Nevada
Home cooking has aided the sparkling record (8-1 in games in the islands) but regardless, nobody expected such a record, especially early on with a mostly brand new team. The Warriors head into conference play as one of the hotter teams in the league with solid wins over Utah and Mississippi State in the very competitive Diamond Head Classic (won by Butler). Forward Bill Amis remains sidelined but seemingly should be back soon and guard Hiram Thompson is also hurting but still playing major minutes and performing effectively. Counting Amis, Gib Arnold‘s squad has five players scoring in double figures and boasting a 45% overall shooting percentage, plus 40% on three-pointers — this is not last year’s UH roster. Hawaii is also holding opponents to 37% shooting. But 213 turnovers in 12 games needs roundball liposuction. UH opens up at Utah State and at Nevada so we’ll know very quickly how much momentum they generated from their 5th place showing at the Diamond Head Classic.
3. Louisiana Tech (9-5)
Up Next: 12/29 at Boise State, 12/31 at Idaho
Louisiana Tech, 8-5 against Division I teams, their best win is against 6-5 Houston (RPI 216). They’ve played one game against a team with an RPI in the Top 100 and that was against Texas (10-2, RPI 26) to start the season. The Bulldogs have two players in the Top 10 in the league in scoring, DeAndre Brown (3rd) and Olu Ashaolu (5th) and two of the Top 12 rebounders in the league, Olu Ashaolu (2nd) and Brandon Gibson (12th). The Bulldogs are 3rd in the league in scoring averaging 71.3 points per game and they are third in the league in field goal percentage defense with opponents hitting 41.4 percent of their shots. The Bulldogs open up conference play at Boise State and at Idaho.
4. San Jose State (8-3)
Up Next: 12/29 at Fresno State, 12/31 at Utah State
The split for the Spartans is 4-1 at home and 4-2 roadin’ it, the best away record in the league so far. SJSU leads the conference in scoring offense (yes, pick yourself up off the floor) at 75.9 points per game and star backcourter Adrian Oliver is coming off a 42 point performance. It a backcourt-led team with Justin Graham averaging 16.1 points a game on 51% overall shooting and 58% with his 33 trey attempts. But frontcourters Wil Carter and Matt Ballard must do better than 37% and 24% shooting respectively or such deficiencies may prove harmful especially when matched up against the bigs of Utah State and New Mexico State. SJSU meets Fresno State in Fresno on Wednesday and then heads to Logan for a New Year’s Eve matchup with Utah State on Friday.
5. Boise State (7-5)
Up Next: 12/29 vs. Louisiana Tech, 12/31 vs. New Mexico State
The Broncos dropped their final non-conference game of the season at Portland but head into conference play with a chance to make an early statement with home games versus Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State. The Broncos are one of the four surprise teams in the league thus far. While their record is just 6-5 and they’ve lost five of their last six games, first year head coach Leon Rice has them playing competitive ball. They lost by just three against UNLV (11-2, RPI 13) in Vegas and by nine at Portland (10-3, RPI 36). The Broncos are the league’s second best scoring team (74.9 PPG) and the third best scoring defense team (64.0 PPG).
6. Idaho (6-5)
Up Next: 12/29 vs. New Mexico State, 12/31 vs. Louisiana Tech
Idaho looks to get off to a good start in conference play against the outpost schools, New Mexico State and LA Tech. Idaho head into league play as the lowest scoring team in the league averaging just 64.4 points per game but are second in the league in assists per game (13.4) and are the second best three point shooting team in the league (38.5 percent). The Vandals are allowing just 66.0 points per game. Not surprisingly the Vandals do not have a player in the Top 15 in scoring, however, they have three of the top 15 rebounders in the league in Shawn Henderson (7th), Brandon Wiley (9th) and Luiz Toldeo (15th).
7. New Mexico State (6-8)
Up Next: 12/29 at Idaho, 12/31 at Boise State
The Aggies’ struggles have come because of a spate of injuries that at one point had wiped out four of their five projected starters, Troy Gillenwater, Hamidu Rahman, Gordo Castillo and Wendell McKines. Castillo is back on the court but McKines has not played all season due to the broken foot, Gillenwater has not played since the first half of the New Mexico game in Albuquerque on December 11th and Rahman has not played since the December 13th game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Aggies have played eight games against teams in the Top 125 RPI but have lost all eight. The four wins have come against Louisiana twice (1-8, RPI 309), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (0-11, RPI 279) and Pacific (5-5, RPI 126). Head Coach Marvin Menzies believes that two of the remaining three players who are out with injury could see action in the next couple of games. Under Menzies, the Aggies have tied for the regular season title (’07/’08), reached the conference tournament semifinals (’08/’09) and won the conference tournament (’09/’10) in his first three seasons and has led the Aggies to a 32-16 record in conference play. The Aggies have just one player in the Top 15 in scoring, Christian Kabongo (11.5 PPG, 13th) and just one Top 15 rebounder, Tyrone Watson (5.6 RPG, 11th). The Aggies open up on the road making the Idaho swing first in Moscow then to Boise.
8. Fresno State (4-6)
Up Next: 12/29 vs. San Jose State, 01/03 vs. Nevada
The Bulldogs are actually in the positive at home with a 3-2 record but the road hasn’t been so hospitable at 1-4. Taking heed of the admonition that a child shall lead them, frosh backcourter Kevin Olekaibe tops the squad in scoring at 10.7 a contest. The Greg Smith Funk remains ongoing as he is mired at 9.7 points per game along with 6.3 boards each time out. Point guard Steven Shepp just returned from academic exile and should help with the assist-to-turnover ratio. Believe it or not, Steve Cleveland‘s team lacks a familiar name in the top 15 point producers in the WAC, indicating just how much Paul George and to a lesser extent Sylvester Seay are missed offensively. League play commences with San Jose State coming to town on Wednesday, followed by Nevada on Monday.
9. Nevada (3-10)
Up Next: 12/31 vs. Hawai’i, 01/03 at Fresno State
Nevada’s struggles have come because they lost 83 percent of their scoring through the NBA Draft and graduation. They have really struggled to find consistency and their two Division I wins have come against Montana (6-4, RPI 140) and Portland State (6-5, RPI 247). Nevada opens up conference play versus resurgent Hawai’i and then heads to Fresno to take on Fresno State.
A Look Ahead
The league did not look good in non-conference play so the WAC will revert back to a one-bid league. It’s the swan song for Boise State as it completes its farewell tour in the WAC before jumping to the Mountain West next season. Everyone is 0-0 starting tonight and with the change in format to the conference tournament, finishing in the top four in the league assures playing no more than three games in three days (just two games if you’re the first or second place finisher) whereas a bottom four finish means a trip to the Big Dance will require winning a four-game in four days gauntlet.
Sam Wasson, Co-Founder and Editor of bleedCrimson.net covering New Mexico State athletics, and Kevin McCarthy, Founder of Parsing The WAC, are the RTC correspondents for the WAC.
[ed note: this WAC Check-In does not include Wednesday’s games]
A Look Back
The WAC went 12-5 against their schedule over the past week picking up wins over Pacific and Oregon along the way. New Mexico State‘s win over Pacific and Idaho‘s win over Oregon represent two of the better RPI-based wins this season by the WAC and the league moved up one spot in the RPI rankings from 19th to 18th.
Player of the Week. Louisiana Tech’s Olu Ashaolu was named the Player of the Week for the week of Dec. 13-19. Ashaolu, a junior forward, recorded back-to-back double-doubles for the third time this season in a pair of Bulldog wins. He scored 21 points on 10-of-13 shooting and grabbed 13 rebounds in an 80-57 win at Houston Baptist. He then recorded 12 points and 10 rebounds in a 62-61 win at UT-Arlington. Ashaolu averaged 16.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 assists per game for the two-game stretch and shot 68.4 percent (13-of-19) from the field and 75.0 percent (6-of-8) from the free throw line.
Power Rankings
1. Utah State (9-2)
Up Next: 12/22 vs. Western Michigan, 12/23 vs. Troy
Utah State had no trouble with Utah Valley or Idaho State and improved to 9-2 on the season. The UtAgs got 19 points from Brockeith Pane in the victory over Utah Valley and 17 points from Brian Green in the victory over Idaho State in the opener of the World Vision Invitational in Logan, UT. Head coach Stew Morrill cannot be pleased that his Aggies allowed the Bengals to shoot 58.8 percent in the second half, however, shooting 61.1 percent yourselves eases the pain a little. USU will face Western Michigan and Troy to wrap up the Invitational. The Broncos from WMU and the Trojans from Troy did battle in a 102-99 overtime shootout. With Utah State’s defensive struggles against Idaho State in the second half, one has to wonder if either WMU or Troy can do the unthinkable and knock off USU in their own building.
2. Hawai’i (7-2)
Up Next: 12/22 vs. Florida State, 12/23-12/24 vs. TB
Victories versus Hawaii Pacific and Chicago State (on Maui) have righted the team after consecutive losses to Cal Poly and then BYU. Now it’s the Diamond Head Classic, starting out with Florida State and Baylor, Butler, Utah and San Diego rounding out the field. Hawaii is undefeated at home so far this season. Four Warriors are scoring in double figures: Zane Johnson at 12.6 PPG, Joston Thomas at 12.1 PPG, Hiram Thompson at 12.0 PPG and Bo Barnes at 10.1 PPG. Thompson was injured last game — his status is unknown — further depleting the depth at guard after the departures of Anthony Salter and Jordan Coleman. Forward Bill Amis (15.8 PPG) remains on the sidelines but various reports indicate he will see some action very soon.
3. Louisiana Tech (8-4)
Up Next: 12/29 vs. Boise State
The Bulldogs split a pair last week notching a one-point victory over UT-Arlington before losing to Iowa in Iowa City 77-58. The Bulldogs were within one at halftime against the Hawkeyes but a late second half surge by the home team made the final margin a little wider than the contest had actually been. After shooting a perfect 10-of-10 from the free throw line in the first half, La Tech was awarded just four foul shots in the second half and hit just one. Olu Ashaolu continued his strong play with 18 points and 11 rebounds before fouling out. The Bulldogs’ next game will be their home conference opener against Boise State.
4. San Jose State (7-3)
Up Next: 12/22 vs. University of Puget Sound, 12/29 at Fresno State
After falling at the end to crosstown rival Santa Clara, SJSU hosted and beat Eastern Washington (for the second time this season) and then put a pasting on Seattle up in the Emerald City. Puget Sounds comes to town Wednesday for what should be an easy one for the Spartans. One interesting factoid: the Spartans are 4-2 on the road in 2010. San Jose State is still surprisingly still below 40% in team shooting (.394). Senior Justin Graham is all the way back physically, shooting 49% overall and 57% on threes while also topping the team in assists.
5. Boise State (7-4)
Up Next: 23/33 at Portland, 12/29 vs. Louisiana Tech
The Broncos put up a fight at Utah but came up disappointingly short, a two point loss at the Huntsman Center. The disappointing part for the Broncos is that not only was it their fourth consecutive loss but they held an eight point lead at the break despite 51.7 percent shooting by the Utes in the first 20 minutes (the Broncos countered with 51.3 percent shooting in the half) and and nine point lead with just under five minutes left to play. Utah still wielded a hot hand in the second half shooting 53.6 percent while making 6-of-11 threes and 10-of-12 free throws. The Broncos led by one with 22 seconds left after a layup by La’Shard Anderson but a three from Utah’s Will Clyburn with 11 seconds left was followed by a three point miss by the Broncos’ Westly Perryman sealing the loss. The Broncos took out their frustration on UT-Pan American winning 91-62 but the second half defensive struggles for the Broncos continued as UTPA shot 63.6 percent in the second stanza. The Broncos travel to Portland and then open up conference play versus Louisiana Tech.
6. Idaho (6-5)
Up Next: 12/29 vs. New Mexico State
The Vandals nearly extracted revenge against Montana for an early season embarrassment but came up just short falling 64-63. The teams were tied at halftime but the lead went back and forth in the second half with Idaho holding a pair of four and five point leads while Montana tried to pull away late going up by five with 1:14 left to play. Idaho would put on a furious rally and took the lead 63-62 on a jumper from Shawn Henderson but Montana’s Derek Slevig would break the Vandals’ hearts with a jumper with six seconds left to send Idaho to a 64-63 loss. Idaho bounced back by notching the second WAC victory over Oregon this season winning 69-65 (SJSU authored the other Duck killing). The Vandals led by five at the break and trailed just once in the second half, by one point. Idaho got the ultimate in balanced scoring as seven players finished with at least eight points. The Vandals are off until next week when they host NM State in the conference opener.
7. New Mexico State (6-7)
Up Next: 12/23 vs. St. Mary’s, 12/29 at Idaho
The Aggies currently own the league’s longest winning streak (four) which comes immediately after owning the league’s longest losing streak (seven). The Aggies easily handled a couple of lower level schools (Oklahoma Panhandle State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff) but got their best win of the season to-date with a 69-64 victory over Pacific. The Aggies trailed by five at the break but rallied to take the lead with 15:17 remaining and did not trail the rest of the way. Senior guard Gordo Castillo finished with 17 points to lead all scorers. The Aggies added to the win streak by holding off a pesky Louisiana squad 82-76. NM State led by as many as 10 in the first half but went into the break with just a one-point lead. They led by as many as 11 in the second half but needed a late bucket and defensive stop to seal the win. Up next the Aggies host St. Mary’s on Thursday. The Aggies will need their most complete effort of the season if they are to come away with the win over the Gaels. The Aggies lost 100-68 in the season opener last year while playing without Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater which they will be doing again this time around. Hamidu Rahman will also miss the game but the Aggies did receive a bit of good news as McKines is said to be participating in his first walkthrough practice since breaking his foot.
7. Fresno State (4-6)
Up Next: 12/29 vs. San Jose State
“Home Sweet Home” is the Bulldog mantra of late what with three consecutive Save Mart Center wins over San Diego, Pepperdine and North Dakota State respectively prior to a 65-55 home loss to Pacific. The Bulldogs are off until they start WAC play at home next week: San Jose State then a trip to Nevada. Greg Smith‘s 20 points led to the victory over USD, 15 steals paced Fresno State to the victory over the Waves and a pair of unexpected double-doubles supplied by Nedeljko Golubovic and Bracken Funk sent the Bison (shouldn’t it be the Woodchippers?) back to Fargo. Fresno State is 3-2 at home but just 1-4 away. Smith still leads the Bulldogs in scoring (10.5 PPG) and rebounding (6.8 RPG) but a double-double average is the expectation of him this season. Better outside-shooting from his teammates (currently a collective 25% three-point percentage) will provide more room for Smith to operate but stronger internal motivation is needed from the sophomore.
9. Nevada (3-8)
Up Next: 12/22 at Washington, 12/27 at Portland
The Wolf Pack head to the road to complete non-conference play as they’ll face Washington and Portland. The Pack narrowly lost to Arizona State (78-75) as Olek Czyz made his Wolf Pack debut with 10 points and seven boards and a monster putback dunk in the second half. Nevada followed the loss with a 79-73 victory over Portland State. Malik Story finished with 20 points and six boards as the Pack fought back from a three point deficit late in the second half to pull away with the win.
A Look Ahead
Conference play begins next week but a few teams still have non-conference games to finish up. The sternest test will come on the island of O’ahu as Hawai’i hosts the Diamond Head Classic with Butler, Baylor and Florida State among the participants. New Mexico State hosts St. Mary’s, Nevada travels to Washington and Portland while Boise State also makes the journey to Portland.
Sam Wasson, Co-Founder and Editor of bleedCrimson.net covering New Mexico State athletics, and Kevin McCarthy, Founder of Parsing The WAC, are the RTC correspondents for the WAC.
A Look Back
Heading into the final week and a half of non-conference play the WAC has an RPI ranking of 19 out of 32 teams, and worse yet, has the weakest strength of schedule among the 31 conferences and independents, according to RealTimeRPI. The league has no victories over Top-100 RPI opponents and just four victories over opponents with RPIs in the Top 150. Utah State is the only league member in the RPI Top 100 (#29) and just one of two schools along with Louisiana Tech (#130) in the Top 150. To further illustrate the tough times the league is encountering this season, the longest current winning streak in the league is two, by Fresno State and Utah State. Nevada and New Mexico State recently ended seven-game losing streaks by defeating San Francisco State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, respectively.
Player of the Week: Tai Wesley, Utah State – Wesley takes the honors after leading Utah State to a pair of home wins last week against Long Beach State (81-53) and Cal State Bakersfield (77-58). Against the 49ers, Wesley posted his first double-double of the season with 16 points and a career-high 14 rebounds to go along with a season-high six assists. Against the Roadrunners, he recorded another double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds, to go along with three assists. For the two games, Wesley averaged 16.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.0 steals. He also shot 63.2 percent (12-19) from the field and 61.5 percent (8-13) from the free throw line.
Power Rankings
1. Utah State (7-2)
Up Next: 12/18 at Utah Valley, 12/21 vs. Idaho State, 12/22 vs. Western Michigan, 12/23 vs. Troy
The UtAgs rolled past visiting Cal State-Bakersfield 77-58 getting a double-double from Tai Wesley. The Aggies led 37-16 at halftime while holding UCSB to just 23.1 percent shooting (6-26). The Aggies did, however, allow Bakersfield to shoot 51.4 percent in the second half (18-of-35). Utah State got a game-high 18 points from Tyler Newbold in the victory. Up next for Utah State is another in-state rival in Utah Valley on Saturday and the following week the Aggies host the Basketball Travelers Invitational.
2. Hawai’i (6-2)
Up Next: 12/17 vs. Chicago State, 12/22 vs. Florida State, 12/23-12/24 vs. TBA
Hawai’i bounced back from a pounding at BYU with a pounding of Division-II Hawai’i-Pacific, winning 72-50. Hawai’i got 18 points and nine rebounds from former Arizona Wildcat Zane Johnson in the victory. The Warriors made more news off the court than on the court this past week, losing a pair of players to transfers. Guards Anthony Salter (6.2 minutes per game in five appearances) and Jordan Coleman (0 points and just eight minutes played in two games), bolted, while UH football player Miah Ostrowski joined the roster. Topping off the eventful week, Hawai’I announced that they’re joining the Big West Conference in 2012-2013 for all sports other than football, which will be joining the Mountain West. The Warriors also got good news when it was announced that senior center Bill Amis could return to action against Chicago State. Amis has been out with an injury since just prior to Thanksgiving and he had been their leading scorer, averaging 15.8 points in addition to being their leading rebounder at 6.8 rebounds per game. The return of Amis is also just in time for the Warriors’ toughest stretch of non-conference games as they host the Diamond Head Classic during Christmas week. The hosts will play Florida State first and then a pair of opponents, which are TBA pending the outcome of the games. And they said finals week is slow.
3. Louisiana Tech (8-4)
Up Next: 12/18 vs. UT-Arlington, 12/21 at Iowa
The Bulldogs dropped a tough one at McNeese State, falling 80-70 as McNeese hit 62.5 percent of their shots (10-16), 83.3 percent of their three pointers (5-6) and 76.9 percent of their free throws (20-26) in the second half. Lonnie Smith led the Bulldogs with 19 points. Louisiana Tech bounced back with an 80-57 drubbing of Houston Baptist and got 21 points and 13 rebounds from Olu Ashaolu. They held the Huskies to just 31.6 percent shooting in the game and just 26.7 (8-30) in the second half, a far cry from the lights-out shooting the Bulldogs allowed in the second half against McNeese State. The Bulldogs host UT-Arlington and then travel to Iowa City to take on the Big Ten’s Hawkeyes, a chance for the WAC to pick up a rare win against a Power Six school.
4. San Jose State (6-3)
Up Next: 12/18 at Seattle, 12/22 vs. University of Puget Sound
The Spartans split a pair, losing 67-63 to cross-town rival Santa Clara. The Spartans held a two-point lead with 2:40 left and were tied with 42 seconds but could not come away with the victory. Adrian Oliver led the Spartans with 25 points in the losing effort. SJSU bounced back with a one-point victory over Eastern Washington in the teams’ second meeting of the season. Oliver poured in 29 points and Justin Graham buried a jumper with seven seconds let for the one-point win. The Spartans head north to take on Seattle, who has already defeated a team from the WAC this season (Idaho). The Spartans then return home to take on the University of Puget Sound.
5. Boise State (6-3)
Up Next: 12/17 at Utah, 12/19 vs. Texas-Pan American, 12/22 at Portland
Three is an unlucky number for Boise State. Their football team saw its BCS hopes dashed by a pair of missed field goals, and now the basketball team has lost three in a row, each by three points. The Broncos fell behind 15-0 against UNLV and trailed by 20 in the second half before rallying late from an 11-point deficit with under two minutes to play. The Broncos got to within two points with 23 seconds left before running out of time. Prior to UNLV’s loss to Louisville this past Saturday, the Broncos’ three-point margin was the closest game the Rebels had played all season. Boise State then traveled to Des Moines, Iowa to take on Drake where they once again lost by three points. Paul Noonan led the Broncos with 20 points but 72.7 percent shooting in the second half (16-22) by Drake was too much to overcome. The Broncos travel to Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes before returning home to host Texas-Pan American. A game at wraps up the non-con schedule.
6. Idaho (5-4)
Up Next: 12/18 vs. Montana, 12/21 at Oregon.
The Vandals had their four-game win streak snapped at the hands of Seattle this week. Idaho trailed by eight at halftime, but took a 51-50 lead with 7:40 left to play but would score just five points the rest of the way. Shawn Henderson scored 17 points in the loss. The Vandals wrap up conference play as they host Montana, where they’ll try to extract revenge for an ugly 75-33 loss to the Grizzlies in Missoula. They’ll then travel to Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks.
7. Fresno State (3-5)
Up Next: 12/18 vs. North Dakota State, 12/21 vs. Pacific
The Bulldogs have won two in a row thanks to a return to the west coast. Fresno State defeated Pepperdine 64-51 behind 17 points from Tim Steed. The Bulldogs trailed by one point with 13:10 left to play, but took the lead with 12:47 left to play and never looked back. The Bulldogs have just one player, Greg Smith, averaging double-digits in points. Smith is averaging 10.5 points per game while Garrett Johnson at 9.9 PPG and Kevin Olekaibe at 9.3 PPG are closing in on double-digit averages. The Bulldogs host North Dakota State and Pacific to wrap up non-conference play.
8. New Mexico State (3-7)
Up Next: 12/16 vs. Oklahoma Panhandle State, 12/18 vs. Pacific, 12/21 vs. Louisiana, 12/23 vs. St. Mary’s
The good news for New Mexico State is that they are no longer on a losing streak. The bad news for New Mexico State is that players are dropping like flies. The biggest loss is that of leading scorer Troy Gillenwater (18.4 PPG) who suffered an ankle injury in a loss at in-state rival New Mexico. Gillenwater played just eight minutes in the first half of the Aggies’ loss. Also suffering an ankle injury in that game was senior guard Gordo Castillo (7.7 PPG). The Aggies’ junior center Hamidu Rahman (9.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) returned to action from a calf injury that caused him to miss the three previous games. He scored 14 points and grabbed 17 rebounds in the loss. The Aggies snapped their seven-game losing streak against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, winning easily, 83-49. However, Rahman re-injured his calf in the first half and did not return. The Aggies will be without the trio of Rahman, Gillenwater and Castillo for at least this week’s games and possibly longer. Also in limbo is the return of forward Wendell McKines, who has been out all season after suffering an ankle injury of his own prior to the start of the season. The Aggies have four non-conference games remaining, with the two toughest games figuring to be against Pacific and St. Mary’s.
9. Nevada (2-7)
Up Next: 12/17 vs. Arizona State, 12/22 at Washington, 12/27 at Portland
The Wolf Pack likewise ended a seven-game skid with a 78-64 win over San Francisco State. Dario Hunt scored a game-high 25 points and grabbed 12 rebounds and blocked five shots in the win. The victory did not come easy for the Wolf Pack, as SFSU trailed by just one at halftime. However, a quick spurt out of the gates in the second half put San Francisco State into a double-digit hole from which they would not climb. The Wolf Pack also have a tough non-conference finish, playing a pair of Pac-10 teams and Portland. The Wolf Pack will welcome the addition of Duke transfer Olek Czyz who becomes eligible now that the first semester has completed.
A Look Ahead
All nine teams wrap up non-conference play over the next week and a half and the WAC has a chance to notch some much-needed quality wins and up the aforementioned poor conference RPI. There will be opportunities as opponents include Iowa (9-1, RPI 4), Arizona State (6-2, RPI 28), Washington (4-3, RPI 165), Oregon (5-2, RPI 101), St. Mary’s (5-6, RPI 115), and Florida State (8-1, RPI 34). Conference play is right around the corner and no team has really established themselves as the dominant team to watch for once conference play begins.
The race for the league title and the automatic bid to the NIT should be decided on Thursday night. Utah State hosts Hawai’i with a chance to wrap up the regular season title, their second in the past two seasons. For Utah State however, they’re looking to make their first NCAA tournament appearance since the 2005-06 season, that year they received an at-large bid after finishing second in the regular season and losing to Nevada in the title game of the conference tournament. The UtAgs, despite a record of 25-3 don’t want to leave anything to chance as they still feel the sting of finishing 25-3, being ranked 21st but not receiving an at large bid after losing in the Big West semifinal to Cal State-Northridge 63-62.
As for the rest of the league, the race for second place is on as Nevada (8-4), New Mexico State (8-5), Boise State (7-5) and Idaho (6-6) can all finish as high as 2nd.
And not to be left out, the bottom four teams, Hawai’i (5-8), San Jose State (4-8), Louisiana Tech (4-9) and Fresno State (2-10) are all playing to stay out of the league’s 8/9-seed play-in game (with the winner having to face likely 1-seed Utah State) in the quarterfinal round.
It’s Utah State and everyone else. At least that’s what it looks like on the outside looking in. However, this could be one of the most wide open tournaments in years. Anyone can beat anyone. Heading into the final week of play, there was a scenario in which five teams could have finished 9-7 and tied for second. While it didn’t turn out that way, the teams are still tightly bunched and it should lend itself to a few upsets.
