Dana O'Neil Sheds Light on Unseen Areas of the Game

Regarding fraternity among coaches:

“It’s sad,” another coach said. “I grew up in this game with an idea of what I thought it was or what I thought it should be. Now I see it’s not like that at all. You have low- to mid-major guys aspiring to move up who will do anything to get there and you have guys who, once they get used to a certain lifestyle, will do whatever it takes to keep it.  There’s less of a brotherhood here than there is in football and that bothers me,” another added. “We have more guys stabbing each other in the back or using you guys [the media] to go after their agenda. That’s a big problem.”

We found this quote somewhat surprising in that we figured that competition among football coaches would be even more intense given the structure of their system, where the pyramid is extremely top-heavy and the small schools have virtually no chance to get there. 

On gender roles:

Along with the coach who called the women, “the gestapettes,” another said, “If the NCAA was serious, they’d hire someone who knew what they were doing, not these women out here trying to get a husband.”

Sexist caveman coaches, for the win!  Dana must have especially enjoyed hearing those quotes as the only nationally-focused female college basketball writer of note in the industry.  Ridiculous, and we’d happily buy her a Cosmo if she would tell us who these cretins were (see what we did there?). 

On recruiting to name-brand schools:

Here’s what I think happens a lot — a team loses a kid to someone else and all of a sudden that someone else is cheating. Every time North Carolina loses a kid, someone else is cheating. It’s like there’s so much arrogance with them; they can’t believe someone would rather go somewhere else, so the other team has to be cheating.

We hear this from fans of the major schools (like UNC) all the time.  Seriously – ALL the time.  But it was enlightening to hear it coming from the coaching ranks as well.  We guess nobody is excused from the tendency to blame extraneous factors when things go wrong.  Not even coaches. 

On expense accounts:

One of my players [who left early for the draft] was working out with another top-five draft pick.  They got to talking and my kid said something about not having money or whatever on campus. The other kid said, ‘My coach set up expense accounts all over town for me. Yours didn’t?”

We discussed this one on the M5 and in the comments.  If we assume that the coach in question was talking about the most recent NBA Draft (fresh on his mind), then we’re talking about four schools here — Kentucky, Ohio State, Syracuse or Georgia Tech.  One commenter pointed out that DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors worked out together in New Jersey before the draft.  Connecting a few dots together, we can make some further assumptions about which school was setting up expense accounts and which school wasn’t.  Or, we could just admit that this is nothing more than rumor and means absolutely nothing. 

Regarding phone call violations: 

I get a kick out of the phone calls. Who gets caught with that anymore? It’s a joke. They’re out there catching the guy with the one phone. How about the guy with two and three bat phones?

This quote really makes the UConn assistant coaches and Kelvin Sampson look stupid, right?  Even low-level drug dealers and amateur terrorists  know that you should use burners for any illicit calls. 

On recruiting within your footprint:

But coaches cited the Big Ten’s perceived willingness to police itself and rosters that “made sense,” in which players traditionally come from the footprint of the schools they choose to attend.

We found this particularly interesting, in that there’s a sentiment that if schools/conference tend to recruit outside of their footprint, that raises red flags in some minds.  Certainly most players at Big Ten schools are going to be from Big Ten states because there’s a strong talent base there and who, for example, really wants to move from Arizona to Wisconsin?  But aren’t there some places that hold a fair amount of attraction to any 18-year old nationwide?  We’re thinking about places like Los Angeles, Austin, Chapel Hill, Gainesville, and so on when we say this.  Certainly we’d wonder what was going on if, say, Minnesota started getting players out of southern California and Florida, but we can’t imagine that any red flag should arise from the opposite migration. 

On dirty conferences:

“Oh no, it’s not just a myth,” one coach said about the SEC. “It’s the truth.  Others weren’t so sure, however.  Everyone says the SEC, but that’s because of [the] football thing,” said one coach. “That’s the standard answer, but I’m not sure it’s true.”  Added another: “The perception is the SEC doesn’t have a good reputation. I don’t know if that’s legit or fair. I was on the other side 10 years ago. If a program starts getting better, starts getting kids, the question is always the same: What’s he doing? He’s gotta be doing something. And that adds to the perception.”

So is it spillover from football (where the SEC is universally reknowned as a dirty cesspool), or is it something else?  Admittedly, this one surprised us a bit.  Take John Calipari’s reputation out of the picture because he’s only been at UK for one season, and who else could these coaches be referring to?  Billy Donovan?  Bruce Pearl?  Rick Stansbury?  John Pelphrey?  It seems odd because most current SEC coaches have a fairly clean reputation, unless there are things behind the scenes that we’re not hearing about them. 

On people associated with an athlete having their hand out:

“I almost cringe when I have a job opening,” another coach said. “Here it comes. I used to get calls from other coaches. Now it’s AAU coaches, trying to place their guys.’”  No one admitted to completing the transaction, yet all 20 said they lost a player because they chose not to complete the transaction.  “I think a lot of times they’re just floating it out there, see if you’ll bite,” another coach said. “But you know what? If you don’t, someone else might.”

None admitted to completing the transaction, which means most of them have probably done so at one time or another.  Especially if it wasn’t formally against NCAA rules at the time.  We wonder when this changed, or if it’s always been that way? 

On the biggest problem facing the sport:

Finally, 100 percent consensus: It’s agents and runners. Not only are they sullying the game, but they’re also changing the way players look at their college careers.

The only way we can think about how the NCAA can put an end to this in college athletics is to make the penalties so punitive on the coach and school that they will not touch a player who might be questionable.  By placing the burden on those two entities to do the proper diligence on each player, the NCAA will have the leverage it needs to impose strict liability if a player is cavorting with agents while still in school.  Then, it becomes a situation where there are no excuses — the coach and school are held responsible and punished accordingly.   

1. We hope to have more up on this later today, but this article by Dana O’Neil quoting prominent college coaches (anonymously, of course) about what is wrong with college basketball is reaching an epic level of buzz right now.  There is so much good material here that it’s difficult to pinpoint the best part, but one particular quote stuck out…  “One of my players [who left early for the draft] was working out with another top-five draft pick,” a coach said. “They got to talking and my kid said something about not having money or whatever on campus. The other kid said, ‘My coach set up expense accounts all over town for me. Yours didn’t?” If we assume that the coach is referring to the 2009-10 season, he’s got to be talking about Kentucky, Ohio State, Georgia Tech or Syracuse, right?  Who is your money on?
2. Luke Winn gets all the tough assignments.  This week he’s reporting back the Alps of Austria with the twenty NCAA players who performed the best in the European Under-20 Championships.  Ok, maybe he wasn’t actually there (we have no idea, actually), but he still comes up with a good list.   Leading the way is… say it with us, now…  Arizona’s Kyryl Natyazhko from the Ukraine.  The 6’11 rising sophomore averaged 17/8 in the tournament, which is great news for Sean Miller’s team as they bring back a deep front line with Derrick Williams, Jamelle Horne and Solomon Hill.  Natyazhko only played eleven minutes per game last year, but with numbers like that, there are signs that he could have a breakout year in the desert in 10-11.
3. In this article, Seth Greenberg comments on the First Four expansion of the NCAA Tournament, which some folks are humorously calling the Virginia Tech Invitational.  You have to figure that the Hokies would have gotten a bid in two of the last three seasons had there been a 68-team field, so there’s probably some truth to that quip.
4. Rob Harrington of USA Today takes a look at the summer recruiting circuit to see what themes have emerged as Las Vegas gears up with over 600 AAU teams in town for its various events this weekend.  A quick primer — Michael Gilchrist is still #1, there has been no apparent “Butler Effect,” and players are milking the process to announce in made-for-tv style events.
5. CBS Sportsline is doing an interesting piece called the Flourishing Five to while away the summer months where they break down the top five college programs in America who are at the top of the heap in both basketball and football.  Their #5 choice is Pittsburgh, an interesting one to say the least.  The obvious choices for the top two are Texas and Ohio State, but who are the others?  Florida has to be considered among the top four, but the other one is a bit perplexing.  Would UNC be an option with Butch Davis now at the helm in football?  How about Wisconsin with Bo Ryan and Bret Bielema getting it done?  The top four should be released over the next couple of weeks.

And what about those players — how did it go for them?  We can safely presume that if you’re good enough to be one-and-done, a year in college probably worked out well enough for you (ahem, Tommy Mason-Griffin excepted).  But we’re more interested in the schools.  How did recruiting and ultimately matriculating a one-and-done player work out for those institutions?  Put in real terms, was bringing a player like Derrick Favors on campus at Georgia Tech for one year worthwhile?  What about Calipari’s den of young Cats?  You may recall that we did this school-centric analysis in each of the last three summers (2007, 2008, and 2009), and the basic conclusion that we’ve found is that one-and-done players have generally benefited their schools in the two areas that matter most: 1) wins; and 2) marketability.  Let’s take a closer look at this year’s group.

2010 One-and-Dones

Kentucky – Well Worth It. Say what you want about the meltdown of Calipari’s Cats in the Elite Eight against a tougher, more experienced West Virginia team, but the fact that Kentucky brought in the #1 recruiting class of 2009 and delivered on the implied promise that Cal’s system develops NBA draft picks is why his cadre of one-and-dones (John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton) was well worth it.  And here’s the what behind the why: four five-star prospects arrive in Lexington next year (Enes Kanter, Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones) and two more are signed on for 2011 (Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague) with several others lurking in the wings.  Not every one of these players will become a one-and-doner, so eventually Calipari will be able to season some experienced talent around his annual lottery pick arrivals (see: 2008 Memphis) to give himself a great chance to win that elusive national title.  As far as the difference in Q rating from the Gillispie era to now, it’s like that $22M/year Tiger Woods lost in endorsements since last November somehow ended up in Lexington as gold-plated streets.  UK has become the program du jour for the young, moneyed and hip, and when the head coach infamously stated that this year’s NBA Draft night was the greatest night in the history of Kentucky basketball, he’s referring to marketability.  The pitch: come to Lexington, play a fun style of uptempo basketball, win 30-35 games, market your brand on television through our deals with CBS and ESPN, have a shot to win a title, meet celebrities such as LeBron James and Drake, and end up shaking David Stern’s hand in a year or two…  not exactly fraught with hard decisions.  If Calipari can keep his program in the headlines for the right reasons, this class will be looked at as the tipping point for a whole new era of Kentucky basketball.  Definitely well worth it.

John Wall Was Only the First of Many Cats to Meet Stern

Marshall – Well Worth It. If you recruit a player who wasn’t even ranked in the RSCI top 100 and he ends up dominating your league as a freshman center to the point of becoming the Conference USA defensive POY and leading the nation in blocked shots, it was well worth it.  Hassan Whiteside’s one year in Huntington led the Thundering Herd to its best season in over two decades, culminating in a fourth-place finish in CUSA, big late-season wins over UAB and Tulsa, and a quarterfinal appearance in the CIT.  For a program that hasn’t been to the NCAAs since 1987, any postseason appearance is a great year, and Whiteside’s patrolling of the paint had no small part in it.  The unfortunate part of Whiteside’s meteoric rise is that the Herd had such a good season that as a result it also lost its head coach Donnie Jones, which may impact the long-term marketability aspect of Whiteside’s year there.  Nevertheless, we doubt anyone at Marshall regrets the year that both Whiteside and Jones resided in Huntington together, so we think that this was a huge boost for a mid-major program not used to having such players around.

Georgia Tech – Worth It. Paul Hewitt’s program has been burned by one-and-dones before, notably in 2007 when both Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton led an inconsistent but very talented Yellow Jackets team to its last NCAA Tournament appearance prior to 2010.  We said at the time that the loss of those two players could set back his program a spell, and indeed it took three years and the arrival of all-world prospect Derrick Favors to carry Tech back to the Dance (and presumably save Hewitt’s job for at least another year).  Still, last year’s team was also inconsistent (an ugly hallmark of Hewitt’s) and short of a strong run to the ACC Tournament finals, the Jackets were not likely to have been Dancing.  Favors had solid numbers (12/8/2 BPG), including 21/18 against Maryland and 22/11 against Duke, but there was a lingering sense that the athletic big man had not quite figured it all out just yet.  This one is a very tough call, and it may change if the Tech program falls off again, but considering that GT had gone 27-36 (9-23 ACC) in the previous two seasons and they were a possession away from winning the ACC Tournament against the eventual national champs, we’re going to say that having Favors around for a single year was worth it (conditional on Hewitt continuing to turn things around in Atlanta).

Kansas – Worth It. On a team filled with offensive talent that many pundits, ourselves included, figured would cut down the nets in Indianapolis last year, it was the freshman Xavier Henry who often seemed the steady hand as some of his more experienced peers traded turns jacking up difficult shots (Sherron Collins) or hiding out underneath the basket (Cole Aldrich).  Prior to the beginning of the season, we had serious concerns about comments made by Xavier and his father and, in particular, whether their seeming me-first attitude would negatively impact the loaded title contender.  It didn’t.  Rather, Henry seamlessly transitioned into Bill Self’s system by starting nearly every game on the wing and becoming the 33-win team’s second-leading scorer (taking and making mostly good shots).  In our view, it turned a Jayhawk squad from a really good team into a great one (notwithstanding the Northern Iowa debacle), and it had the corollary effect of showing that Self can handle players with one-and-done aspirations (and difficult family members!) such as Henry.  In fact, Self proved that he can showcase talent in a way that maximizes his team’s potential while also exhibiting that his coaching style isn’t as deliberate and fixed as some might argue.  Therefore, we think that even though Kansas’ season didn’t end as many had expected, Henry’s one year in Lawrence was still worthwhile, as KU won games hand over fist and helped improve the marketability of the program.

Henry Made a Very Good Team a Great One

Texas – Not Worth It. This is a hard one because we recognize that not every one-and-done will be a Kevin Durant or even a John Wall, but much more was expected from Avery Bradley (the top overall recruit by ESPNU) and his team last season.  After a 17-0 start that had resulted in the Horns residing at the very top of the polls in mid-January, UT experienced a complete meltdown after they had seen their own blood.  Texas went 7-10 the rest of the way, bowed out in ugly defeats to Baylor and Wake Forest in March, and turned what looked to be potentially their best season ever into an unmitigated disaster.  Of course, the primary issue for Barnes’ team last season was spotty point guard play, and Bradley appeared to struggle to adjust to his role as a combo guard in the system.  For example, he had more zero-assist games than five-plus ones, and he failed to hit a single three during the final four weeks of the season.  We wondered aloud last year if Texas simply had too many chefs in the kitchen — what with J’Covan Brown, Dogus Balbay and Jordan Hamilton all vying for backcourt minutes — and not one of them exceptional at fulfilling the duties of a traditional point guard.  The bottom line is this for Bradley: if Texas bounces back next season and the offense appears much more fluid, then his removal from Austin may be viewed by many as addition by subtraction.  For that reason, we think that his one-and-done season wasn’t worth the headaches.

Cincinnati – Not Worth It. If you’re a program like Cincinnati trying to claw its way into the elite of the Big East standings for the first time, you expect that a top ten talent like Lance Stephenson will help get you there.  Instead, we now know for a fact that Mick Cronin’s team was not markedly different that the one from the year before (a sub-.500 Big East team), and we’re not sure that Born Ready’s year in the Queen City improved the marketability of that program to where other top prospects will want to follow him there.  There were always questions about his maturity and inability to make the simple pass rather than the spectacular one, but interestingly, when he told Cincinnati reporters that he was likely to stay in college for an additional year to work on his glaring weaknesses (such as his 22% conversion rate from beyond the arc), UC was going through a period of losing five of its last six regular season games.  Ultimately, the Bearcats made it to the NIT and won a game before losing to regional rival Dayton, but it’s a significant difference from what UC fans were hoping for when Stephenson declared his intention to matriculate there last summer.  With a fairly young team set to return next year, Mick Cronin, like Barnes above, may be hoping for an addition-by-subtraction scenario as well.

Oklahoma – Ridiculously Not Worth It. Where to begin with this mess?  Not only was Oklahoma an absolute embarrassment to its brand with a team that basically quit halfway through the year (losing its last nine games), but the two players who were one-and-dones were more apt to be described as rats fleeing a sinking ship than stars moving on to greener pastures.  Tiny Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin both had statistically solid freshman seasons, but neither wowed anyone to the point where they were considered legitimate pro candidates at this point.  After the season, Gallon admitted to taking money while he was in high school, while Mason-Griffin foolishly stayed in the draft without apparent realization that 5’11 combo guards who shoot 40% from the field are in low demand at the next level.  It was no secret that Mason-Griffin clashed with head coach Jeff Capel on occasion, but his smarter move would have been to transfer rather than become the first one-and-done prospect to go undrafted.  Regardless of these two, OU is facing possible NCAA sanctions as a result of Gallon’s misdeed among other allegations, and the program is certainly in no better shape now that these two players (along with sophomore Willie Warren) are gone.  You have to believe that Capel would take back the recruiting of these players if he could, because the resultant damage to the Sooner program is completely  not worth it.

Gallon & Company Left OU on the Deck

One-and-Dones: Historical Snapshot

With another year of evidence by which to assess the impact of one-and-done players on their schools, not much has changed.  As we said last year, our qualitative analysis showed that 54% of one-and-dones (13 of 24) had been, at minimum, worthwhile to the school involved.  With seven of this year’s eleven added to the total, we now find that 57% (20 of 35) were worthwhile recruits, and 60% of those players (12 of 20) were huge successes.  This means that nearly a third of one-and-done players have been what we would describe as “well worth it” for his school, and more than half of all were worth the risk.  Echoing the sentiment we outlined last season, the only conclusion that should be drawn from this, despite the paucity of Final Four appearances by one-and-doners, is that coaches who fail to recruit the very best talent are probably doing themselves a disservice.  The objective of every major program is to make Final Fours and win national championships, but the journey to get there has to be built on a foundation of talent, and successful one-and-dones can pay dividends in terms of future talent well beyond the scope of their W/Ls while briefly on campus.

• Although most people have been talking about the growth of international basketball and its impact on the NBA, we never really saw much of an effect on NCAA basketball other than seeing proven college players get passed over by unproven international talents. Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, anybody? No, we are not talking to you David Kahn! Well, now we are finally starting to see some of the effects. Everybody who reads this site is familiar with the work of Enes Kanter who will play for Kentucky next year (pending a final decision by the NCAA), but it does not stop there as this is a growing trend. Last week Seton Hall received a commitment from center Aaron Geramipoor, who hails from England. [Ed. Note: We're really trying hard not to make any Bobby Gonzalez-Harrod's jokes.] Now, Rutgers, Kentucky, and Maryland have expressed interest in 6’6″ wing Daddy Ugbede from Nigeria (cue up the “Who’s your Daddy?” t-shirts and chants in the student section). Ugbede will enroll in a prep school in Washington, DC, but it is clear that college coaches (and high school coaches for that matter) are starting to look more closely at talent from overseas.
• In May, Georgia head coach Mark Fox surprised many fans by landing Marcus Thornton, which was considered a minor coup given the fact that Texas and Georgia Tech were both offering him a scholarship. This weekend, Fox landed the best recruit to come to Athens in many years when he received a verbal commitment from Kentavious Caldwell, a shooting guard who is ranked as one of the top 5 at his position and top 15 players in this year’s senior class overall by every recruiting service.
• Last week, Marshall Plumlee, the #5 center in this year’s rising senior class, committed to attend Duke following in the footsteps on his brothers, Miles and Mason Plumlee, raising the possibility that all three could play together at Duke next year if Mason (a potential lottery pick in the 2011 NBA Draft) decides to return to Durham for his junior season. Not to be outdone by Coach K, Roy Williams has extended a scholarship offer to Plumlee’s AAU teammate Cody Zeller, the younger brother of Tyler. Cody, who is the #4 power forward in this year’s rising senior class, has not committed to a school yet and has a pretty big list of potential schools according to local newspapers, but we have heard that UNC and a pair of in-state schools (Butler and Indiana) are in the lead right now.

• By now many of you have heard of Anthony Davis who is blowing up on the AAU summer circuit this year. We will have a lot more on him tomorrow, but until then you can check out some YouTube highlights of Davis.
• Davis may have taken all the headlines during the Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, but it was Duke-bound consensus top 5 shooting guard/small forward Michael Gbinije (19 points and 5 rebounds) who led his team to victory with undecided point guard James Robinson adding 24 points. Gbinije ended up winning MVP of the tournament thanks to his offensive output and solid defense against Florida-bound Bradley Beal (#2 rated SG in the class) and undecided Ben McLemore (a top 10 SF/SG) in the finals.

For the entire 20 At The Top series, click here.

Over the next six Fridays this summer, I’ll have the honor of taking you through the top 20 players in each major conference in college basketball. The list is a combination of many factors:  production, expectations, ceiling, skill set, statistics, efficiency, basically anything under the sun that a college basketball fan like myself obsesses over during the dog days of summer. Hopefully healthy debate is opened up in the comments section. Without further ado, here’s my ACC edition:

1) Kyle Singler, Duke — Singler will top many prognosticators’ preseason national player of the year rankings, and his decision to return for a senior campaign at Duke instantly vaulted the Blue Devils to repeat-or-bust expectations. With a more guard-oriented transition attack planned for Duke this season, Singler will only see his scoring opportunities skyrocket and he’ll be the centerpiece of what should be a ferocious offensive attack. He’s a tremendous competitor, can make shots in spurts and will have another full season at the collegiate level to adjust to the small forward position.

2) Harrison Barnes, North Carolina — Barnes seemingly has no flaws on the basketball court and has the potential to make the type of impact Evan Turner had on Ohio State during what will be Barnes’ one and only season in Chapel Hill. He’s the favorite to go #1 overall in the 2011 Draft — a silky smooth shooter with a confident mid-range game and a fantastic attitude/basketball IQ to boot. Barnes will have to deal with the unparalleled expectations of resurrecting one of the premier programs in the sport.

3) Nolan Smith, Duke — Smith has come a long way since being demoted to the bench in favor of Elliot Williams midway through his sophomore season. If anything, Smith will prove even more lethal this season playing alongside Kyrie Irving in a transition attack and Kyle Singler on the wing. He could top 40% with his three-point shooting and is also the type of poised floor leader that Coach K adores. He’s an undersized 2-guard at 6’2, but played the position last year when Jon Scheyer ran the offense and it didn’t seem to deter Duke come March.

4) Kyrie Irving, Duke — Irving is the truest and most refined point guard at his age that scouts have seen in years. The biggest Duke recruit since the Paulus/McRoberts combo entered Durham, Irving immediately has the responsibility of running the offense of the defending national champs. Blessed with innate court vision and basketball IQ, Irving can also score in bunches, thrives in transition and is especially productive in a pick-and-roll game. Think a reincarnation of Jay Williams, although Irving will only be around for one season.

5) Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech — Delaney enters the season as the hands down favorite to win the ACC scoring title. The combo guard is comfortable both slashing to the basket and shooting threes, although we’ve seen his outside shooting numbers plummet the last two seasons in Blacksburg. The main reason Delaney went off for 12 25+ point performances during his junior year is an incredible ability to get to the free throw line (32^nd in nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes) where he knocks down 85% of his freebies.

6) C.J. Leslie, NC State — Leslie surprised the college basketball world when he spurned John Calipari and decided to save Sidney Lowe’s job in Raleigh. He instantly becomes the best player on an intriguing Wolfpack squad that will look to climb out of the ACC cellar. Leslie is insanely skilled and loves to run where he can show off his athleticism. The perimeter shot needs work and Leslie tends to lose focus, but Lowe reeled in a special talent with a very high ceiling.

7) Chris Singleton, Florida State — Singleton has all of the physical gifts and athletic ability to dominate and should transition to the next level as a 6’8 small forward with the wingspan to defend power forwards. As for the college game, it remains boom-or-bust for Leonard Hamilton’s most talented and most frustrating player. As a prime example, Singleton sandwiched 22 and 23 point performances with a two point showing during ACC play last season. Free throw shooting and a mid-range game also need improvement.

8) Mason Plumlee, Duke — With Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas moving on, the younger Plumlee brother should have more room to shine as the primary option in a somewhat thin Duke frontcourt. The jury’s out on whether he can match the rebounding and toughness that Zoubek provided, but the athletic spurts that Plumlee showed last season lead me to believe he can become deadly on the boards. He does have considerable development in terms of a low-post offensive game.

9) Tracy Smith, NC State — Smith flew way under the radar last season on a downtrodden NC State team, but should see more publicity this winter with an improved supporting cast. Smith scored in double figures in all but two games during his breakout junior campaign in which he averaged 17/7 as the centerpiece of any opposition’s game plan. Now aided by C.J. Leslie, Ryan Harrow and Lorenzo Brown, Smith has the chance to enter the vernacular of more casual college basketball fans.

10) Tyler Zeller, North Carolina — A near-seven footer with a smooth mid-range jumper, Zeller just needs to stay healthy for a full season to maximize his potential. Extend Zeller’s stats from last season per 35 minutes and he was a near double-double performer. Zeller and incoming frosh Barnes could create some serious matchup problems for ACC competition.

11) Durand Scott, Miami — Scott was a hyped freshman out of Rice High in New York City when he entered Coral Gables and his first year was certainly a learning experience. Scott struggled out of the gate but his Hurricanes marched to the ACC semifinal before falling to Duke by three. Scott scored in double figures eight of his last nine games (including 20+ games vs. Duke and Carolina) and will look to carry that momentum, along with considerable upside and room to grow, into the 2010-11 season.

12) John Henson, North Carolina — Henson has the chance to really break out this season. He looked completely overmatched for most of what was undoubtedly a disappointing freshman campaign, but coach Roy Williams saw him making strides during Carolina’s NIT run. A lanky four who can run the floor, Henson just needs to add bulk. He has the wingspan and instincts to be a superior defender eventually.

13) Joe Trapani, Boston College — The former Vermont standout should mold into the most reliable offensive weapon for BC during his last go-round at the Heights. Trapani can push and shove with the big bodies down low or step outside and consistently drain a mid-range or three point jumper. I could see Trapani and Reggie Jackson working well together in what BC hopes is a more fruitful season under new coach Steve Donahue.

14) Reggie Bullock, North Carolina- — You know that Carolina must have a pretty special recruiting coup when the #2 shooting guard in the entire class (according to Scout) is flying well under the radar. Along with Barnes, Bullock has an excellent chance to start immediately for the Heels. His three-point range is simply off the charts and he may instantly be the deadliest shooter in the ACC. Add some strength and more confidence going to the rim and Bullock could become special in Carolina blue.

15) Dorenzo Hudson, Virginia Tech — Much like Scott, Hudson really came on consistently during the latter half of the ACC slate. Overall, he upped his scoring average nearly 11 points and his FG% by over 7% last season, giving coach Seth Greenberg more than one option for his Hokie attack. His signature performance came against Seton Hall: 9/22 FG, 20/21 FT, 3/7 3pt, 41 points. Key on Delaney and Hudson will make you pay.

16) Jordan Williams, Maryland — One of my soon-to-be household names from last Friday’s column, Williams instantly transforms from role player beside Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes to the number one scoring option in College Park alongside Sean Mosley. After averaging a near double-double last season in his freshman year — including 15/11 against Duke and 21/17 in their NCAA Tournament win over Houston — my money’s on Williams being able to carry the load both scoring and on the glass.

17) Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech — Shumpert is now Paul Hewitt’s go-to player with Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors both departed. He should be able to play more freely without having to worry about touches for the Tech big men. Shumpert has been a bit of an enigma during his time in Atlanta — his assist totals actually went down last season despite playing with loads of talent — but this winter could be when he figures it out.

18) Seth Curry, Duke — The rich get richer. Curry scored over 20 a game at Liberty as a freshman and will come off the bench for the guard-heavy Blue Devils this season. He’s got a chance to become a game-changer and could see crunch time minutes if Duke elects to play small. Curry doesn’t quite have the outside shot of his older brother, but it’s still more than acceptable and Curry has international experience playing with the best.

19) Demontez Stitt, Clemson — Stitt vastly improved his floor game as the lead guard of a fierce Clemson attack last season. At 45/78/39, Stitt is efficient and dependable. The jury’s out on how he adjusts to new coach Brad Brownell’s slower offensive mentality during his senior campaign.

20) Reggie Jackson, Boston College — Evaluators are enamored with Jackson’s raw athleticism, but can he harness his abilities and become a consistent force for BC? Jackson will convert an earth-shattering dunk ,then on the next possession make a head-scratching turnover.  His three-point shot is improving and Jackson does possess the quickness to burst to the rim. He has the potential to become a special piece on an Eagles squad that could be sitting on the bubble this season.

Also considered: Corey Raji (Boston College), Andre Young (Clemson), Michael Snaer (Florida State), Ian Miller (Florida State), Sean Mosley (Maryland), Mychal Parker (Maryland), Malcolm Grant (Miami), Will Graves (North Carolina), Larry Drew II (North Carolina), Ryan Harrow (NC State), Mike Scott (Virginia), Sammy Zeglinski (Virginia), Jeff Jones (Virginia), Jeff Allen (Virginia Tech), C.J. Harris (Wake Forest).

Now that we’re all back in the swing of things from the holiday weekend, let’s dive into another set of morning links.

1. Former Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez was arrested under suspicion of trying to steal a $1,395 man purse from a Ralph Lauren store in a New Jersey mall. The story says “satchel”, but we all know that’s just a nice way of saying man purse. We don’t know which man purse it is, but these are the most likely options (purse 1 or purse 2).
2. Adam Zagoria brings you the winner of future all-name college basketball teams, God’s Gift Achiuwa, who is being recruited St. John’s. Zagoria missed a great potential finishing joke when he forgot to mention the upcoming moment where Knick fans boo the selection of God’s Gift.
3. The Legends Classic announced the match-ups and locations for the regional match-ups of its early season tournament with Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Michigan, and UTEP hosting a bunch of sacrificial lambs–Albany, Bowling Green, Detroit, Gardner-Webb, Mercer, Niagara, Western Carolina, and William & Mary.
4. Georgia’s athletic department took a step toward getting back to business as usual by naming Frank Crumley interim AD on Tuesday.  University prez Michael Adams, though, has formed a committee who will search outside the UGA system for a permanent replacement for Damon Evans.
5. Celebrate we will, for it’s the July evaluation period.  Coaches might not be able to talk to available recruits, but they may watch them as much as they want and determine where — that is, on whom — they’ll concentrate their recruiting efforts.  The period kicked off with a huge showcase in Indianapolis featuring over 4,000 basketball players as well as many of the biggest names in the coaching game.

Over the course of the next month until the NBA Draft on June 24, RTC will be rolling out comprehensive profiles of the 30-35 collegians we feel have the best chance to hear their names called by David Stern in the first round that night.  There won’t be any particular order to the list, but you can scroll back through all the finished profiles by clicking here.

Player Name: Gani Lawal

School: Georgia Tech

Height/Weight: 6’9, 233

NBA Position: Power Forward

Projected Draft Range: Late first round/early second round

Overview: Gani Lawal came to Georgia Tech three seasons ago as a McDonald’s All-American with a reputation as a high-motor rebounder. Over his career with the Yellow Jackets he did nothing to dishonor that reputation, leading his team in both scoring and rebounding the last two season. Last offseason, he tested the draft waters, but wound up returning for his junior year. While his numbers took a bit of a dip in 2009-10, some of that can be attributed to having to share the post touches and rebounds with fellow early entry Derrick Favors. His game, however, did take some strides forward: his mediocre free-throw shooting improved a bit despite a late season dip, he improved his footwork in the post, and he increased his offensive efficiency there. However, he clearly has a limited upside, is not a natural offensive scorer and is limited outside of the paint.

Will Translate to the NBA: Lawal’s work-ethic is impeccable. He’s got a non-stop motor and relishes doing the dirty work inside. He is athletic and a strong rebounder with good size including a 7’0 wingspan, and while limited offensively, is quite aware of that fact and doesn’t force things. He is capable of scoring on the block and around the rim and has a pretty strong left hand for a natural righty. He is also capable of getting up and down the floor well and finishing on the break. While he’ll never be a go-to option at the NBA level, he is capable of being a solid role player, strong defender and strong rebounder.

Needs Work: Nearly all of Lawal’s weaknesses are on the offensive end, and the list is fairly extensive. He doesn’t have much of a face-up game, his handles aren’t great, he doesn’t have a great looking jumpshot and, rightfully so, isn’t very confident in it. He is a terrible free throw shooter, although he showed that he is capable of improving there: he shot nearly 70% from the line prior to the ACC season in 09-10, but reverted to just 46% from the line during ACC play. And, on the defensive end, he could use some work defending on the perimeter. Basically, Lawal is effective in and around the paint; a step or two outside of the lane is where Lawal could use plenty of work.

Comparison Players: He’ll be an NBA role player who contributes defensively and on the glass. He’s Brandon Bass, with maybe an upside of Udonis Haslem, providing energy off the bench, doing the dirty work, and being the type of guy who, when you look at the box scores, you may not even notice: four points on three attempts, five rebounds, a blocked shot in 18 minutes. You know, the kind of guy who is quietly very valuable in the League.

Best Case Scenario: Lawal’s offensive game comes along slowly but surely. He spends a couple of years mostly riding the pine for a team that is an NBA title contender (in an ideal world for Lawal, he is picked at the back end of the first round, earning a guaranteed salary), learning from seasoned veterans and providing spot minutes, sometimes in very important situations. Eventually, maybe three years in, he earns a spot in a rotation, getting 15-20 minutes on normal occasions and getting some starts here and there when the normal starter is injured or otherwise out. At the height of his career, maybe he averages eight points and six rebounds, occasionally going for 15 and 10 for a game here and there.

2013 Projection: In his third season, Lawal should earn a spot in a rotation somewhere, getting minutes spelling a starting power forward. If he hasn’t earned a spot by then, he likely never will and will be headed towards the door rather than the floor. He’ll get a couple of years to get comfortable in the NBA and learn his role, but if by 2013 he is not ready to play minutes on a regular basis, his spot on the roster may be susceptible to being saved for the next young big-man prospect. That said, we think Lawal will earn his minutes by 2013 and be the unspectacular, hard-working contributor that we detail above: rebounder, defender, a garbage man on offense.

Best NBA Fit: Unfortunately for Lawal, many of the spots at the back end of the first round are occupied by teams that missed the playoffs but acquired their picks via trade. Atlanta at #24 would be a good match for Lawal, as there is very little in the way of big men beyond Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia under contract for next season. However there may be more attractive big men still available at that spot. If Lawal does slip into the second round, he would be a great fit with the Lakers at #43. While he certainly doesn’t want to fall that far (or even out of the first round), there are no big men under contract in Los Angeles next year beyond Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom. Lawal would have a very good chance to make the Laker roster and spend a few years learning from some of the best in the game.

* Andrew Murawa contributed this profile to RTC

That sound you just heard may have been the proverbial first domino creaking a little. Today, Orangebloods.com columnist Chip Brown reported that, in advance of the Pac-10 meetings which begin this weekend in San Francisco, the Pac-10 is set to invite six Big 12 schools to join in the creation of the first superconference of the new era of college sports. Brown reports that Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech will be the schools invited, leaving Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska behind. All this comes on the heels of the Big 12 meetings, wrapping up on Friday, which opened with a plea by commissioner Dan Beebe for a united front among member institutions and a commitment to the conference. Obviously, this rumor has huge ramifications for the Big 12 and the Pac-10, but the ripple effect of such a move would be felt across the college sports landscape. We’ll take a look here at the specifics of this rumor and how this rumor could affect other conferences around the country.

Why is this man smiling? Beebe has his work cut out for him. (AP/Mike Fuentes)

The Pac-16. Or Big 16. Or the Great New Superconference

According to the Brown article, which cites multiple unnamed sources, the new conference would be divided into two eight-team divisions with the six Big 12 schools joining Arizona and Arizona State in an Eastern or Inland Division and Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington and Washington State forming the Western or Coastal Division. Then, with the aid of Fox Sports Net, already an operating partner with the Big Ten Network and television partner with both the Pac-10 and Big 12 conferences, the league would create its own cable network akin to the BTN. Perhaps coupled with new television contracts with ABC/ESPN, Fox, CBS, Turner or any other bidders, the projected revenues of the new conference (which would encompass seven of the top 20 television markets in the country) could rival those of the SEC or even the Big Ten.

But this is far from a done deal for a lot of reasons. One big rumor recently has been Texas’ interest in creating its own television network, a move that would allow Texas to keep all of the revenues to itself. And considering Texas’ long-standing disinclination towards sharing profits with other lesser draws (one of the main reasons there has been some Big 12 familial disquiet in the past), they would likely prefer to keep the Big 12 together as-is and move forward with their own plans. However, most people around the conference already see Missouri as good as gone, and Nebraska is at least still in the Big Ten’s sights, so the hopes of keeping the conference whole may be rapidly disappearing.

Texas A&M is also reportedly not entirely on board with the move west. A&M athletic director Bill Byrne was quoted in the Houston Chronicle on Thursday as saying that the SEC could be an option for the Aggies and Oklahoma could also be more inclined to head that way rather than west, both turns of events that could cause the new league to be either scaled down or reconfigured.  It still remains to be seen, however, if the SEC is really interested in taking on more members. With member institutions already raking in about $17 million a year from their new deal with ESPN, that pie would either have to be divided into more and smaller pieces, or renegotiated upon the acceptance of new members. As much as A&M and OU may rather head east, they may not necessarily be invited. And then, there is also the question of how attractive the Oklahoma athletic department is at this point, given their current ongoing NCAA investigation into alleged payment to players, a very serious infraction for a school that was already on probation.

Anyone feel like joining the Pac-10?

As we discussed in our original piece on conference realignment, the worst case scenario for the Big 12 is that it doesn’t exist anymore, and this news today goes a long way towards making that more of a reality. Why is the Big 12 the target for cherry-picking from all sides — the Pac-10 to the west, the Big Ten to the north and the SEC to the east? Well, certainly geography is part of it, and with the Big 12 being smack in the middle of the country and other conferences wishing to expand into relatively nearby geographical areas, member institutions throughout the Big 12 are just primed to be picked at by conferences on the edges. But, beyond that angle, there is the fact that television revenues in the Big 12 are not paid out evenly, with Texas earning over $3 million more per year than Baylor and Iowa State, and even $2 million more than schools like Missouri, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Colorado. Ostensibly, the new superconference would provide a much more equitable distribution of wealth. Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott said recently that a new conference network would need to be an “all-rights-in situation,” again per Orangebloods.com. Revenue sharing in the Big 12 has long been an issue (prompting a hilariously self-unaware quote by Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins: “Revenue sharing is an issue, but if you do some other things there are ways to offset that”), but again at this week’s conference meetings, the issue was not up for discussion. With Missouri in particular displeased with the unequal distribution of wealth, that could be just one more nudge toward the Big Ten door for that school.

Big 12 Leftovers

While there are big questions for both the Pac-10 schools and the Big 12 schools rumored to be invited, all of that pales in comparison to the questions left for those Big 12 schools rumored to be on the outside looking in. What happens to Kansas, one of the nation’s preeminent basketball schools? How about up-and-coming programs Kansas State and Baylor, the Big 12’s Elite Eight representatives last year? If Oklahoma or Texas A&M wind up getting invited to the SEC instead, perhaps Kansas and Kansas State could take their spots in the new Pac-16. Or, if the original 16 in the rumor wind up together, maybe KU and KSU get a lifeline from the SEC, although neither really fits in geographically or aesthetically with the SEC schools. Baylor would be a logical partner in the MWC with fellow former-SWC member TCU, but does Kansas make any sense in the MWC?

So what about the remaining five Big 12 teams banding together to pick off some conglomeration of MWC and Conference USA teams, resulting in a new Big 12 that looks something like: Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, New Mexico, Rice, TCU, Tulsa and Utah? It makes some sense, but at this point it is likely that the MWC teams would have more clout than the remaining Big 12 teams. Certainly, with the MWC perhaps on the verge of adding Boise State, a quartet of Boise State, BYU, TCU and Utah is far more appealing than the remaining Big 12 schools football-wise, and while Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor would significantly upgrade the already strong MWC basketball slate, does Iowa State get left out in the cold? Does Nebraska get left out if the Big Ten decides to go to the bigger media markets to the East?

Another scenario, which would require several other things to transpire in front of it, is the Big 12 leftovers joining forces with the Big East football leftovers (assuming the Big Ten raids the Big East for some combination of Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse), for a mish-mashed geographic league: say Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Nebraska, South Florida and West Virginia. Yuck.

The reality is, if the rumored six head off to the Pac-16, the remaining Big 12 schools will be in for some major league scrambling.

Effect on Big Ten Expansion

If this comes to fruition, what kind of effect does this have on Big Ten expansion? With many people already considering Missouri a done deal, it puts a lot of pressure on Nebraska to find a way to get invited for Big Ten membership, lest they, their legions of fans, and their historic football program be left scrambling for invitation somewhere else, whether that be the SEC (poor geographic match, although the heft of the Husker football program would fit in well with the SEC schools), MWC (better, but still not great geographically, and a significant step down for the football program), or some other new conglomeration of schools left out in other realignments. It is possible that the disintegration of the Big 12 may actually give the Big Ten more of a reason to go out and get Nebraska, perhaps even prompting them to go beyond 16, because Nebraska and their football program will wind up somewhere at some point and they are an attractive well-supported option. There is also the idea that the Pac-10 jumping to 16 may cement the notion that the Big Ten will at least go to 16, if for no other reason than to keep up with the Joneses.

Will Slive and the SEC go searching for new blood?

Effect on SEC Expansion

More interesting may be the number of different scenarios that get tossed towards the SEC if the ball gets seriously rolling on the Pac-16. If Texas A&M and Oklahoma are seriously not interested in Pac-10 membership, the SEC may be able to snap them up and expand their reach further west, maybe even grabbing Nebraska along the way, making an already strong football conference even stronger, although perhaps further diluting their basketball strength. While this could happen if the Big 12 gets dissolved and suddenly these programs are out there for the taking, the key hurdle for any SEC expansion would be to figure out exactly what happens with their historic television contract with ESPN. It is unlikely that ESPN is just going to pony up another $17 million a year for each new member, so do the member schools all agree to just take a smaller piece of the pie? Quite unlikely, although maybe if Texas is part of the package, ESPN would be more apt to sweeten the pot. But Texas seems particularly unwilling to join the SEC due to their desire to maintain some pretense towards remaining in rarefied academic company. In the end, this really doesn’t change the first major decision that SEC commissioner Mike Slive and the presidents and athletic directors of the member institutions need to make: is expansion even realistic financially for the conference at this point? And if the answer there is yes, then the SEC can start comparing their numerous options from both the Big 12 (Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M), ACC (Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami) and even the Big East (Louisville, West Virginia).

Effect on Big East Expansion

The only major effect a Pac-16 would have on the Big East is if it provided further incentive for the Big Ten to raid a significant number of Big East football schools, a prospect that is perhaps already in the works. There is a scenario where this could be a good thing for the Big East, however. Say the Pac-16 happens, and the Big Ten decides to snatch up free agent Nebraska in addition to Missouri. If the Big Ten is really not interested in going any further than 16 teams, perhaps they can convince Notre Dame to come on board and grab just two of the remaining Big East teams. In that scenario, the Big East only has to find two football replacements to get back to the eight teams necessary to retain the possibility of automatic BCS qualifying status, maybe snatching up teams like Central Florida and Memphis to get back to eight while providing geographic partners for schools like South Florida and Louisville. In the end, the Big East is still in a precarious position, but there may be a little glimmer of hope in this news for them.

Big 12 Meetings Wrap-up

While there is still plenty going on behind the scenes that needs to get sorted out before we have any definitive answers, this newest rumor is a bombshell, to say the least. However, Beebe got it just exactly perfect on Tuesday at the start of the Big 12 meetings when he said: “I think it’s very serious. And I think it’s something that we better be very careful about. If we come to a day where there are four 16-member conferences, then it’s going to be a sad day, and it’s going to be very difficult to not have more legal issues and interventions. The pressures will be immense for certain programs to be successful, (and) there will be less chances to win conference championships and national championships.” He’s right about that, and yet just three days later, we may be on the verge of taking that next step towards that very scenario.

]]> http://rushthecourt.net/2010/06/03/realignment-rumors-on-todays-pac-10big-12-rumblings/feed/ 4 http://rushthecourt.net/2010/06/03/rtc-nba-draft-profiles-derrick-favors/ http://rushthecourt.net/2010/06/03/rtc-nba-draft-profiles-derrick-favors/#comments Thu, 03 Jun 2010 18:16:26 +0000 rtmsf http://rushthecourt.net/?p=21867

Over the course of the next month until the NBA Draft on June 24, RTC will be rolling out comprehensive profiles of the 30-35 collegians we feel have the best chance to hear their names called by David Stern in the first round that night.  There won’t be any particular order to the list, but you can scroll back through all the finished profiles by clicking here.

Player Name: Derrick Favors

School: Georgia Tech

Height/Weight: 6’10, 245

NBA Position: Power Forward

Projected Draft Range: Top five pick

Overview: Derrick Favors came into his lone season with the Yellow Jackets as the one of the most highly recruited players in the nation (Rivals rated him as the #3 recruit, Scout as #2 and ESPN as #1), but despite averaging 12.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG and just over two blocks per game, he had to be considered a bit of a disappointment. Some of that could certainly be attributed to the lackluster play of the Georgia Tech point guards, and having to fight frontcourt-mate Gani Lawal for rebounds, but it is clear that at just 18 years of age, Favors hasn’t come anywhere near his potential yet. But still, there were plenty of intriguing signs, and Favors definitely improved over the course of the season, perhaps playing his best game of the season in the ACC Championship when he racked up 22 points and 11 rebounds against eventual national champion Duke, and scored in double figures in his last eleven games of the season while averaging over nine rebounds a game over that stretch.

Favors Has Superb Finishing Abilities

Will Translate to the NBA: Favors’ measurements are outstanding: a legit 6’10 stature, 7’2 wingspan and 9’2 standing reach, all of which measure up to Dwight Howard’s combine measurements. Given that size, he fits perfectly as an NBA power forward, but can even play center, especially with some added bulk. Aside from the measurements, there is the phenomenal athletic ability: jump-out-of-the-gym hops, gazelle-like open-court speed and a strength that belies his youth. Those skills allow Favors to be a spectacular and strong finisher around and above the rim, while also making him a versatile defender, able to bang with power guys inside or step outside and guard perimeter-oriented forwards. And while Favors was able to rely on superior athleticism to dominate in high school, he showed the ability to expand his game in his Georgia Tech career by improving his footwork and low-post moves over the course of the 2009-10 season.

Needs Work: While his offensive game did improve over the season, there is still a ways to go. He is most comfortable offensively right at the rim and will need to develop more consistent low-post moves and work on his jumper out to 15-18 feet, a shot he is capable of making when confortable. He’ll need to improve his basketball IQ, as he doesn’t handle double-teams well and is not a very good passer out of the post, both issues that led to a very poor 2.5 turnovers per game, a number even more disturbing considering the relative dearth of touches he got in the Yellow Jacket offense. And, perhaps job number one for Favors, he’ll need to continue to get stronger, something that should not be a problem given his frame.

Comparison Players: There’s the Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire comparisons on the upside and the Antonio McDyess and Al Horford comparisons on the downside. Yes. McDyess and Horford are his downsides. However, we most like the Howard comparison, not just because the measurements match up, but also because Howard was without a developed offensive game at the same age. While Howard made his hay early in his career solely on dunks, strong rebounding and defense (and some would say he still does), Favors is capable of doing the same thing: providing positives for his team without a developed offensive game. Both players are amazing athletes, forceful rebounders and intimidating defenders, and if anything, Favors may have more offensive upside than Howard.

Best Case Scenario: Favors develops his body and his offensive game, doing the dirty work necessary early in his career to earn playing time and the respect of his peers and becomes a 20/12 guy or better, anchoring a stout defense while improving his post moves, face-up game, jumpshot, ball-handling and passing. While Favors may not be ready to step into an NBA starting lineup immediately as a rookie, his ability to contribute on defense and on the glass should earn him early minutes and his hard work could vault him into a starting lineup in his second year, especially considering the type of team on which he will end up.

2013 Projection: Favors should clearly be starting by his third NBA season, his body having completed the transition to an NBA fame, his offensive game rounding into shape, and his rebounding and defensive prowess becoming well-known throughout the league. While his transition into a top-flight post player may be a little more protracted (remember, in 2013 he’ll still be just 21), you can pencil him in as a 15/10 guy on a nightly basis with plenty of room still to grow.

Best NBA Fit: Out of the teams most likely to be interested in and able to garner Favors’ services, there is not a bad fit among the bunch. Lately there has been some chatter that the 76ers are interested in Favors at the #2 spot, and with Samuel Dalembert likely on his way out after his contract expires next season, Elton Brand having been MIA for one reason or another the last couple seasons, and little more intriguing talent up front, Favors would be a welcome infusion of talent in the Philly frontcourt. However, as of right now, Favors is just one of three players (Evan Turner and DeMarcus Cousins the others) who the Sixers are considering with the second pick. Should Favors fall past Philly, the Nets would gladly snap him up to pair with Brook Lopez for a frontcourt tandem that could be a terrorizing force in the Eastern Conference for years to come. While it isn’t particularly likely that Favors falls past the third pick, if he does so, the Kings are very interested in him at #5, and with Spencer Hawes in and out of the doghouse in Sacramento last season, they too are very interested in a frontcourt stud. Our choice? We’d love to see Lopez and Favors in Jersey.

With the seemingly constant banter about the Big 10′s imminent conference expansion, Atlantic Coast Conference commissioner John Swofford has said that he will not be `the aggressor’ during a summer in which potential moves will forever change the landscape of college athletics.  This is a big mistake.  Swofford needs to step up and take expansion by the horns.  With the potential of conference realignment looming from coast to coast, it only makes sense for the ACC to be proactive with these changes.  But instead of letting football dollars guide the decision-making, Swofford has a golden opportunity to come at the inevitable from a different perspective and instead alter the college basketball landscape for the better.

Commissioner Swofford Should Be Proactive Here

It is understandable that the driving force behind every conference expansion is football, and rightfully so.  College football brings in huge amounts of revenue that are not only used for athletic purposes but also for academic research opportunities at those universities.  This is very important for every ACC member institution and it makes sense that they should try to harness as much revenue as they can so their institutions can flourish.  But instead of focusing on expanding (or not expanding) for college football why not take a different approach to the usual football expansion?  To do this, the ACC must step back and take a look at the ACC’s overall product.  The conference’s primary business advantage over every other conference in America is its rich basketball tradition that includes a high level of competitiveness, passionate basketball fanbases and a strong presence in the national media regarding the sport.  Ask anyone in California or Michigan the first thing they think of when hearing ”ACC,” and the immediate response will be “basketball.”   Therefore, instead of scouring for leftover football revenue in an oversaturated football market, the ACC should stay true to its roots and take a stranglehold on the college basketball market.

Every conference wants to be considered foremost a ‘football conference’ because of the amount of money that the sport brings in, and the expansion of the ACC in 2003 to include Boston College, Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) was a brilliant maneuver that brought the ACC a football conference championship and all the revenue that goes with it.  But the truth is the ACC is in its best year the fourth or fifth strongest BCS football conference in America and expansion isn’t likely to change that fact (the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12/Pac-10 hybrids would likely get stronger).  Since 2003, the league has only won one of its BCS bowls (Virginia Tech over Cincinnati in 2008), and the last four BCS bowls with the lowest television ratings all featured an ACC team.   On the other hand, in the seven years since expansion the ACC has had three national basketball championships and six Final Four appearances.  Business as usual on the hardwood.

The ACC has long represented the essence of college basketball; it is the conference filled with thoroughbred athletes and teams that every other league still measures itself by annually.  But since the latest football expansion the league has lost some of that advantage.  The ACC Tournament was once the “hottest ticket” in the country, but now the tournament is just another ticket before the NCAA Tournament begins a week later.  This could be due to Duke’s tournament dominance over the past decade, or (more likely) the front office in Greensboro turning its back on the one sport that makes the ACC marketable.  The goal of the ACC should not be to pressure football into a basketball-rich conference but to expand on its quality attributes in college basketball.  Any expansion should be done to enhance the ACC’s overall television market, seeking to improve its college basketball image and competitiveness without losing any revenue or market share in college football.

See, There's a Divison Right There

Please understand that the next proposal is not suggesting that the ACC should expand before the Big 10, but the league should be open to expansion ideas and proactive in considering conference realignments.  By sitting back and waiting, the ACC as we know it runs the risk of either become irrelevant or extinct.  Assuming the Big Ten doesn’t, the ACC should therefore extend invitations to West Virginia, Syracuse, Connecticut and Pittsburgh (Louisville would also be another viable candidate).  By adding these four teams the ACC will finally gain much of the New England television market that Boston College was unsuccessful in delivering.  With a sixteen-team league that stretches up and down the entire eastern seaboard (and the tens of millions of people living in that footprint), an opportunity would arise for the ACC to pursue a television network much like the Big Ten Network.  Most importantly from a brand perspective, this type of expansion would provide growth in the level of basketball competition while suffering little to no decline in football competition.

After expansion the sixteen institutions should be separated into two divisions (North & South) and four subdivisions (for example:  North Atlantic, North Coastal, South Atlantic, and South Coastal):

North Atlantic

• Maryland
• Virginia
• Virginia Tech
• West Virginia

North Coastal

• Boston College
• Connecticut
• Pittsburgh
• Syracuse

South Atlantic

• Duke
• North Carolina
• North Carolina State
• Wake Forest

South Coastal

• Clemson
• Florida State
• Georgia Tech
• Miami (FL)

In football, all division opponents must play each other once per season with one game coming from a team from the opposing division (traditional rival or a rotation), thus creating an eight-game conference schedule.  Division winners will play for ACC title in the ACC Football Championship.  In basketball, all subdivision opponents must play home/away series.  All other opponents will be played once a year in a home and away rotation, creating an eighteen-game conference schedule.  Schedules would still be unbalanced by weight, but at least the league would still have every team playing each other once a season.

This can work.  The ACC should enhance the competitive advantage it already has in college basketball by expanding with basketball supremacy in mind – not football.  The football revenue with expansion would still be sufficient through its current television contracts and the ACC championship game, but by adding four schools with a rich basketball history and tradition the added value of ACC basketball as a brand would significantly trump any other conference in America in that regard.  Can you imagine the general revenue and national spotlight that would be produced from a semifinal Saturday in Madison Square Garden that hosts possible ACC Tourney matchups of Duke/UConn & UNC/Syracuse?  From a conference health perspective, is it better to be fourth-best in football or by far the best in basketball?  Let’s hope John Swofford is carefully considering that question this summer. 

1. The NCAA is discussing the highly-anticipated question as to how to structure the new 68-team NCAA Tournament, and specifically, the four play-in games.  We’ve written extensively about the options on the table (and preferences), but in reading yesterday that there are three possibilities — slotting the last eight auto-bids, the last eight at-larges, or a hybrid of the two (interesting…) — we’re happy that they’re considering the right questions.  In reading the tea leaves, it’s apparent that they are concerned about the same low-RPI leagues ending up in the four PiGs every year, but a proposed “rotation system” seems very contrived.  Does a SWAC team get a bye into the first round as a #15 seed regardless of resume if they’re in the PiG three straight years?  And what of this hybrid option — how would that look?
2. Was the Class of 2007 one of the greatest high school classes of all-time?  It’s difficult to make that statement just three years out, but so far, as this Basketball Prospectus piece shows, the star power of that class (Love, Mayo, Beasley, Gordon, Griffin, etc.) leaves most other classes in the dust.
3. Alabama’s Justin Knox will transfer to either Georgia Tech or UNC after the Tide program refused to grant him a waiver so that he could go to UAB, his top choice.  Knox states that he believes the transfer will help his goal of reaching the NBA, but if that’s true, we’re not really sure what he would have been able to get in Birmingham that he couldn’t get in Tuscaloosa.  Or what he thinks he can get in the ACC that he couldn’t get in the SEC.  The whole thing is just very strange, and Alabama fans are convinced that UAB was recruiting him while he was still a member of the Tide program.
4. With the signing deadline passed this week, here’s your top 25 recruiting classes for 2010.  Kentucky is obviously #1 and Memphis #2 with loads of talent coming in at every position, but the ACC (four of the top ten) and Big Ten (four of the top fifteen) appear to be the leagues with the strongest influx of talent arriving.  In a related piece, Luke Winn lists his top ten developments of the spring recruiting period this year.
5. Speaking of Memphis, guard Roburt Sallie is leaving the program to transfer to a school closer to his hometown of Sacramento, California, or to pursue professional opportunities overseas.  He is due to receive his degree in August, and if he does so, he will not have to sit out the transfer year and will therefore be eligible to play college basketball in 2010-11.  Mike Montgomery on line two.

Overview

College sports fans dodged a major bullet last week when the NCAA announced that the men’s basketball tournament would only be expanding to 68 entrants, rather than the 96-team field that had been widely rumored. However, the face of college sports as we know it is still in jeopardy, as the specter of widespread conference realignment still looms, with the much-speculated-upon expansion of the Big Ten as the key domino that could start a wave of changes leaving the college sports landscape drastically altered.

The elephant in the room issue is the consolidation of power away from the existing six BCS conferences and into a smaller number of “superconferences” with the possibility looming that once any realignment sorts itself out and we’ve got four 16-team conferences, those conferences break away from the NCAA and form their own structure. As Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins puts it: “At some time, the major conferences are going to have their own quasi-NCAA. They’re going to do their own thing.” Former Syracuse AD Jake Crouthamel was even more specific, saying that eventually the Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Pac-10 would expand and ultimately leave the NCAA, even to the point of forming their own competing basketball tournament: “If you look at the history of what’s been going on for the last decade, I think it’s leading in that direction.”

We Promise It Won't Get This Complicated

The potential expansion of conferences detailed below is not the first shot fired in the consolidation of power, but the next step in an already-existing series of moves that has widened the financial gap between the biggest athletic departments and the rest of the supporting cast. And, as those at the top get bigger and bigger, the underdogs not only fall behind in terms of funding, but they may ultimately be left completely behind: no more Boise State and Utah to steal BCS bowl spots from big-money institutions during the winter, and no more Butler and George Mason sneaking into the Final Four in the spring. While that type of doomsday scenario is still several decision points down the line, what happens in the Big Ten over the next twelve months or so could be the monumental tipping point to drastically move things in that direction.

At present, the most widely rumored targets for Big Ten expansion are Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse from the Big East and Nebraska and Missouri from the Big 12, although as always occurs when the Big Ten thinks about expansion, Notre Dame is in the mix and likely their number one choice. With the Pac-10 also in the midst of contemplating expansion within the next year, these moves could send a ripple effect throughout all of the Division I conferences causing some conferences to get bigger, others to contract, and even some to disappear.  While the specifics remain conjecture and speculation at this point, there are enough common-sense scenarios out there to fuel theories to create one of the most helter-skelter flowcharts ever seen. We’ll take a look conference-by-conference at what could happen, and what kind of fallout might be created by each move, starting with our eleven midwestern friends.

Big Ten

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany confirmed last Wednesday that his conference is considering not only expanding to 12, but also perhaps even 14 or 16 teams. While some of the rationale for the expansion would be the addition of a football championship game for more revenue, the accumulation of more content and more markets for the Big Ten Network is probably more important to their plans. Delany noted that while discussions for this expansion are ongoing, the 12-18 month timetable that was originally announced in December is still the current framework.

Starting with the first domino, there is little doubt that the Fighting Irish would be the Big Ten’s first choice and the most logical fit for the conference, in terms of geography, academics and, frankly, football. Notre Dame and the Big Ten have flirted with each other many times in the past, but there is likely a greater chance that they will consummate their relationship this time around than any time before. For the Big Ten, the attraction is obvious: a huge fan base in historic “Big Ten country,” a ton of athletic history, and excellent academics. For Notre Dame, however, the question is a lot tougher. The Irish have been a football independent throughout their history and current athletic director Jack Swarbrick recently said that their “highest priority is maintaining football independence.” Notre Dame is currently in the middle of a television contract with NBC for the rights to broadcast home football games, a contract that runs through 2015 and an issue that will need to be confronted somehow if the Irish are eventually invited and accept Big Ten membership. The amount of the NBC deal (about $15 million annually) is not prohibitive enough to prevent them from considering membership in the Big Ten, whose member schools currently receive about $20 million annually from their television contracts. It is even possible that if the Big Ten and Notre Dame can come to an agreement, all this expansion talk will end right there: Notre Dame joins up, the Big Ten stops at 12 teams, the Big East poaches a team from CUSA like Central Florida as an additional football school and geographic partner to South Florida or a basketball-only school from the A-10 like Rhode Island or Massachusetts and the end-of-the-world scenario is averted. At present, however, it is being reported that Notre Dame is not being considered in the Big Ten’s expansion plans (a report that nobody in their right mind believes), but if Notre Dame is interested, the Big Ten will certainly be interested as well.

Figure 1: Big Ten Best Case Scenario

However, it is also realistic that with or without Notre Dame, the Big Ten is aiming for 14 or 16 teams to become the first superconference. While the addition of teams such as Missouri and Nebraska makes the most geographic sense, this expansion thing is not really about logic but about dollars, and Delany seems most interested in all the potential viewers that the bigger east coast markets present — notably Rutgers and Syracuse, but also Pittsburgh and potentially Connecticut. Adding three or even all four of those schools would effectively kill Big East football as we know it and potentially damage the Big East basketball enough to persuade a fence-sitting Notre Dame to leap off onto the Big Ten side as well. Swarbick himself admitted in March that “there are things that are large enough to challenge our ability to remain independent and remain in the Big East.” All four (or even three) of those flagship Big East programs bolting for the Big Ten could be one of those “large enough” things.

There have also been rumors about the Big Ten talking to Texas, one of the wackier possibilities and a move that would go a long way toward shattering the Big 12, especially in combination with Nebraska bolting as well and other conferences cannibalizing the remaining Big 12 membership. Why would Texas want to leave their traditional rivals (notably, Oklahoma and Texas A&M) in the Big 12? Big old reason number one: money – the conference’s television contract pales in comparison to the Big Ten’s (or even the SEC’s, another interloper interested in stealing Texas away). While Texas joining the Big Ten is a longshot, it is still a possibility if the Big 12’s member institutions start to get spooked and scatter, something that might happen if Missouri and Nebraska commit early.

Big East

If the Big Ten and Notre Dame finally get hitched and everybody else is happy enough with that arrangement to stay put, the Big East could find one basketball-only replacement pretty easily without starting a resulting avalanche. They could even find an all-sports participant (UCF as mentioned above, or perhaps some other CUSA school) without afflicting too much damage.  Although if they were to snap up Memphis, CUSA’s basketball legitimacy would fall off in a big way.

The doomsday scenario for the Big East occurs, however, if some combination of Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers and Connecticut leave, swiftly eviscerating the conference’s football core and leaving Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia and South Florida looking for a home. Possible scenarios there include the Big East raiding Conference USA for teams like Memphis, UCF and/or Marshall, picking up some of the MAC outliers (Temple, Buffalo) or the whole pack leaving together to form a new conference, leaving basketball-only schools DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Villanova to form a Catholic hoops league or possibly looking to the Atlantic 10 for reinforcements (Temple again, Rhode Island, UMass, Xavier, Richmond, Charlotte, Dayton, St. Joe’s).

Figure 2: Big Ten Goes to 14

The possibilities here are endless, but without a doubt rookie commissioner John Marinatto has his work cut out for him. He has already hired former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue as a consultant, and it is possible that the Big East, already at sixteen basketball schools, could look to expand proactively. There is early talk about trying to get Boston College back from the ACC and possibly swiping Maryland as well. Marinatto has begun talk about a Big East Network, and there are even a couple of ideas to handle the Notre Dame problem: for example, getting the Irish to agree to a deal where they are not a full football member but still schedule a certain number of Big East schools in exchange for their continued membership in the conference in basketball and the non-revenue sports.

From a basketball perspective, imagining a landscape where Georgetown and Syracuse (just to pick one historic rivalry) are not both members of the Big East is a bit scary. But if the nuclear option goes down and the Big East loses three schools to the Big Ten, they could still form a pretty impressive basketball-only conference by raiding the Atlantic 10. DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Villanova plus Xavier, Temple, Rhode Island, Dayton and St. Joseph’s for a 12-team league? Yes, that could work, although it would leave the Atlantic 10 either dead or looking to poach teams from further on down the ladder.

Pac-10

Before we jump to some other conferences that would be impacted by the Big Ten expansion, let’s go west for a bit to another conference actively exploring expansion. Where the Big Ten is looking at options beyond merely a 12-team league, it is thought that 12 is the upper end of the spectrum for the Pac-10 for now. Twelve teams would give the conference the chance to hold a football championship game, but another scenario new Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott is exploring is legislation that would allow a conference to hold a football championship game with only ten members. Throw into the mix the fact that the conference is looking for a new TV deal to replace their current one that expires at the end of 2012 and change is also afoot out west. One major hurdle for the conference to clear in order to be able to expand: expansion requires unanimous approval of the member institutions and there are rumors that Stanford president John Hennessy is against any expansion plans whatsoever.

If the Pac-10 does expand, they’ll be looking for a couple of teams in the same region to match their current ‘traveling partner’ setup. Colorado and Utah are probably the schools that the Pac-10 is most interested in. Both are large research institutions in sizable media markets and close enough together to be traveling partners. BYU and Missouri are far longer shots, with several other west coast athletic powerhouses (UNLV, San Diego State, Boise State, etc) likely having very little chance of being invited to join due to their lack of academic cohesion with the rest of the conference. The problem, however, is that while Utah would probably jump at the chance to bump up to the Pac-10, Colorado presently doesn’t have any reason to want to leave the Big 12. But, if CU administrators see storm clouds on the horizon for the Big 12, they may jump ship ahead of the sturm and drang. And, if Colorado goes west, along with Nebraska and Missouri heading to the Big Ten, maybe Kansas is suddenly also interested in Pac-10 membership. As the Big 12 then crumbles around it, Texas and Oklahoma will need a home, and what about the rest of the conference: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas A&M, Iowa State. If the Big Ten goes to 16 teams and one other conference follows, a third of the BCS conferences is going to have to get swallowed up entirely, and with the Big 12 geographically in the middle of all the others, it is easy to see a scenario where it gets partitioned off bit by bit.

Pac-10 expansion is not a given, considering the conference’s stringent criteria for member institutions and the limited possibilities that fit those specs, and many in the conference want to maintain the conference’s ability to schedule a full round-robin in football and a full home-and-home round-robin in basketball. However, if a couple dominoes fall the right way at the front of the stack, the Pac-10 may have little other choice. A decision on Pac-10 expansion is expected by the end of 2010, with their television contract negotiations likely playing a major role in their eventual decision.

Big 12

While the Big East has the most to lose due to expansion, the Big 12 is not far behind their eastern brethren. If Nebraska and Missouri are invited to join the Big Ten, they would probably jump at the opportunity given the financial implications. Those decisions could prompt a feeding frenzy that would leave the Big 12 every bit the memory that its progenitor, the Southwest Conference, currently is.  Furthermore, if the Big Ten expands to 16 teams, it could prompt the SEC to look into its own expansion possibilities, with teams like Texas and Oklahoma being among the many potential candidates. With the sharks circling to the north, south and east, perhaps Colorado and even Kansas then head to the Pac-10, leaving the remaining conference teams all fighting for a few lifeboats. Some of the less powerful schools could wind up heading to a greatly-expanded Pac-10, the SEC or even the Mountain West.  If all goes wrong for the Big East, they’ll at least still be able to fall back into a pretty strong basketball-only conference. If it all goes wrong for the Big 12, there is no more Big 12, a crazy but realistic thought given the circumstances.

Figure 4: Big Ten to 16 and Effect on Big 12

SEC

The Big Ten is the number one conference in terms of revenue produced. The SEC is a strong second. If the Big Ten expands to just 12 teams, that probably provides no impetus for the SEC to respond. But if the doomsday scenario occurs and the Big Ten moves to 16, the SEC might want to respond, and they’ll likely have no problem doing so.

The first question to ask is why would the SEC expand? They don’t have to expand by four teams to 16 just because the Big Ten does. Right now, there is no question that the SEC is the best football conference in the land and it is the Big Ten that needs to make a move to catch up to the SEC, not the other way around. One key difference between the two is that the SEC doesn’t have its own television network but it already has a huge 15-year contract with ESPN to broadcast their games. Adding more teams is not going make the conference any richer (in fact, depending on the terms of any SEC expansion, it may cause the existing teams to have to split the existing contractual revenue into more slices). So just because the Big Ten gets bigger doesn’t mean that the SEC is necessarily going to respond in kind. SEC commissioner Mike Slive’s comment that “if there is going to be a significant shift in the conference paradigm, the SEC will be strategic and thoughtful to make sure it maintains its position as one of the nation’s pre-eminent conferences” can  be read either way.

However, if they did pursue expansion, the only problem they would have is choosing between their many different options, a decision that would likely be influenced by how the Big Ten got to 16. If the Big Ten raided the Big East to the point of near-extinction, teams like South Florida, West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati would be pretty good matches with the SEC. If the Big 12 lost Nebraska and Missouri, perhaps Oklahoma and Texas would fall into the SEC’s lap. Or maybe the SEC tries to get out ahead of the game and go after schools like Florida State, Miami, Clemson and Georgia Tech from the ACC, all of whom would be better matches with the SEC both in terms of geography and philosophy, triggering a whole different set of dominoes.

ACC

It is possible that even if the Big Ten expands to 16, the ACC could get out of this whole mess unscathed and unchanged. It is also possible that any of Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland or Miami could be gone and any of Cincinnati, Connecticut, Lousiville, South Florida and West Virginia could be in. So far there is no indication that the ACC has any interest in expanding beyond twelve teams and likely any move that the ACC were to make would have to be in response to other fallen dominoes which finally reached them, courtesy of either poaching by the Big East or the SEC.

By the time you get down to discussing the potential fallout of Big Ten expansion reaching the ACC, you’ve got what-ifs and maybes piled sky high and the potential flowchart diagramming the whole mess beginning to double back on itself. I suppose the ACC has the best chance of avoiding any of the blowback from changes made up the line from them, but at the same time they seem to be in a spot where they are just going to have to react to whatever changes around them. There is no possible scenario where the ACC goes away in the short term, as the core of the conference on Tobacco Road is going nowhere, but the peripheral teams outside of that area may shift. And, it isn’t even out of the realm of possibility that the ACC is comfortable sliding back to just ten teams, or even eight or nine, given their troubles selling any number of tickets to their football championship, and even recently lagging ticket sales for the ACC Tournament.

Figure 6: ACC Fallout

Other Conferences

As all the dominoes above fall, there will undoubtedly be fallout in the non-BCS conferences. The Atlantic 10 could be raided by the Big East for their basketball-only schools. Depending on the number of teams that leave that conference, they could be looking for teams from either the Colonial or the MAAC. Conference USA teams could be replacements for Big East football schools, or if those schools decide that the Big East without Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse is not for them, there could be an entirely new conference made up of some of those leftover Big East football schools and some of the Conference USA teams. It’s even possible teams in the lower rungs of the conference (St. Bonaventure, Fordham, La Salle) find their way back down to conferences like the MAAC, the America East or the NEC. The Mountain West could either be the beneficiary of teams after the breakup of the Big 12, or the league itself could be erased as those teams head either to the Pac-10 or the Big 12 in other scenarios. And it is certainly possible that the WAC and the MWC might find each other thrust together again (they split in the late 90s) if they lose even a handful of teams. Short-term, the MWC doesn’t want to add just a single team to get up to ten (Boise State has been the hot-topic of conversation around the MWC for a couple of years) because of the football scheduling implications for Air Force (a 10-team MWC would require nine regular season games, and the Air Force has two non-conference obligations to their fellow military academies, leaving them just one “free” game each year), but if Utah leaves for the Pac-10 and Boise State brings along some combination of Nevada, New Mexico State, Utah State and Fresno State to form a 12-team conference, that could be a possibility (nevermind the side-effects of leaving schools like Hawaii, Idaho and San Jose State out in the cold).

Summary

In the end, it is clear that we could be on the precipice of an era of wholesale expansion of major conferences to 12 teams at a minimum, or as far as 16 for two or three conferences, and there has even been some talk of the Big East doing some pre-emptive expansion of their own, to as many as 20 teams. While the Big Ten is likely the first big domino in a long line of them, there are plenty of key points along the line where sanity could take over and prevent a complete makeover of the college sports scene as we currently know it. But the Big Ten blowing right by twelve and becoming the Big sixTEeN will likely force at least the Big East and Big 12 to scramble, and a couple other properly placed blows (like the Pac-10 poaching Colorado) could set the whole thing tumbling.  Is this a good thing for college basketball and intercollegiate sports in general?  We suppose that it depends on your perspective, but one thing we’re quite certain of is that the moneyed interests playing this shell game don’t really care what we (or you) think.  Caveat emptor. 

Ohio State assistant Alan Major will take over at Charlotte and try to get that school back to the NCAA for the first time in six years, which shouldn’t be too hard with the pending expansion.  The 49ers were 19-12 under Bobby Lutz last season and were in the talk for an at-large bid late in the year out of a very tough Atlantic 10, but they put an end to such speculation by dropping seven of their last eight games.  This is Major’s first head coaching job, and it will be interesting to see what kind of talent he brings to Charlotte having spent time under one of the better recruiters in the game in Thad Matta at both Xavier and OSU.

Three more declare, but look for one to return. In a move that surprised nobody, Georgia Tech freshman forward Derrick Favors declared for the NBA draft, joining fellow Yellow Jacket Gani Lawal in that endeavor.  Favors was in the top 50 in both blocks (2.1 BPG) and field goal percentage (61.1%) as a freshman and was second on the Georgia Tech squad (behind Lawal) in scoring at 12.4 PPG.  With those numbers, plus a 6’10, 246-pound frame, Favors is projected to be the third pick in the draft by NBADraft.net.

Mississippi’s Terrico White is also headed for the NBA draft, but don’t be surprised to see him back in Oxford next year.  The 6’5 sophomore forward is not hiring an agent, and it sounds like he’s going through the process just to be evaluated in order to see where he ranks and where he needs to improve his game.  Can’t blame him at all.  Though he doesn’t appear in either round on the current NBADraft.net list, his name did show up there from time to time over last season and he’s listed as the seventh pick on their 2011 draft.  White averaged 15.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG last year for the Rebels and his stock will certainly improve with a year to develop further expertise in the backcourt.  One man who won’t be back next year is VCU’s Larry Sanders.  The 6’11 and 235-pound junior center averaged 14.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 2.1 BPG for the Rams last year and says he plans on hiring an agent.  NBA Draft.net has him projected as a late first-rounder.

Few college basketball fans are born with their love for the game. For most aficionados, at some point on the way from infancy to college hoops fan, there is a moment. A single play, shot, player, game, or event at which point they say to themselves, “I will always have this in my life.” Because it is the time of the season that carries the most gravitas, these things often happen in March. We asked some of our friends and correspondents: what was the thing that turned you into a lifelong college basketball fan? What was your…March Moment? We’ll be posting some of their answers for the rest of the month.

In this installment, Back Door Cuts contributor Mike Walsh describes how his March Moment changed his life and put him on a path from which he’s yet to stray:

Without a doubt, my defining March moment is from the 2001 NCAA tournament. It was my sophomore year at Saint Joseph’s University and as the assistant sports editor at the student paper, I was lucky enough to travel to San Diego to cover our boys as the No. 9 seed in the West bracket.

In the first round, the Hawks topped eighth-seeded Georgia Tech. It was the first tournament game I ever saw in person and watching my team win from press row was icing on the cake. In the second round, St. Joe’s drew No. 1 seed Stanford. On paper, it shouldn’t have been close. In the first half, it didn’t look like it was going to be.

But then, I and everyone else in the arena witnessed an unforgettable performance.

You know those games where the whole arena is buzzing with the prospect of an upset in the making? This turned out to be one of those games. You know those players who are suddenly thrust into the spotlight after a stellar showing on the NCAA’s biggest stage? St. Joe’s junior guard Marvin O’Connor was that player.

O'Connor (in red) in a Big 5 game against Penn

On the shoulders of the scorching hot shooting guard, who tied a career high with 37 points on 15-of-20 shooting, the Hawks wiped out a 14-point first half deficit and gave the top-seeded Cardinal all they could handle in the second half. For a while, it felt like it could be one of those rare instances where a No. 1 seed was sent packing on the first weekend.

But then, with 11.9 seconds left on the clock O’Connor walked off the court, having just fouled out, his dreams of a Sweet Sixteen berth just out of reach. The entire arena rose to its feet, applauding an other-worldly effort from a player that many had never heard of before against a team they routinely watched on the highlight reels.

My goosebumps had goosebumps.

Never had I seen such a reaction for a player on the losing team, especially not on a neutral court on the other side of the country. A truly special performance elicited a truly special moment.

St. Joe’s lost that game, 90-83. But that reception for O’Connor stands out more to me than the final score. It was that very moment that made me realize this is what I wanted to do with my life. I decided to devote the rest of my college career to journalism and pursue that passion professionally after graduation … all because of one standing ovation.