Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Louisville has owned Syracuse over the last six years. Will that continue this evening? In the Big 12, Kansas State faces a huge game with in-state rival Kansas. Big Monday is just that on this night. Rankings are subject to change with a new RTC Top 25 coming out today.

#2 Syracuse @ Louisville – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN (****)

Louisville Has Owned the Orange in Recent Years (AP Photo/Kevin Rivoli)

• Syracuse has won five straight games since losing at Notre Dame on January 21, but the Orange better be ready for a challenge tonight in Louisville. The Orange have lost their last seven games to the Cardinals, their last win coming six years ago (Louisville’s first season in the Big East). To stave off another Louisville upset, Syracuse has to play strong defense and turn Louisville over. The Cardinals rank #218 in turnover percentage and Syracuse is among the best in the nation in creating steals and points off turnovers. The Orange fast break is absolutely lethal, quite often sparked by Dion Waiters off the bench. Waiters is #4 among individuals in steal percentage and Louisville has been vulnerable to giveaways all season long. Syracuse is the better team but it must play with poise and toughness on the road against a team that will play hard for all 40 minutes with a raucous home crowd cheering them on.
• Louisville is going to have to make outside shots and stop Syracuse from getting out in transition in order to win its eighth consecutive games against the Orange. Louisville shot the three well in two games last week, going 44% against Connecticut and 46% against West Virginia (season average = 32.8%). Look for Rick Pitino to put Kyle Kuric on the free throw line in Louisville’s zone offense, using the versatile senior to hit the mid-range shot, pass, or drive to the rim. Kuric and point guard Peyton Siva have to probe the zone cautiously but can’t be lulled into passing the ball around the perimeter. To beat Syracuse, Louisville must attack the zone north/south rather than east/west. The Cardinals must shoot the ball well to win, no ifs, ands or buts about it. That’s not a strength for Louisville but Syracuse puts up a lot of points. Louisville must keep pace and put forth a strong defensive effort. Gorgui Dieng has the potential to have a similar impact as Fab Melo defensively. If that’s the case, Louisville may be able to force Syracuse into contested jumpers in their half court offense. Dieng and Melo are incredible presences in the paint so you’d have to think the team that does best in transition and shoots the best from mid-range should win the game.
• If Syracuse is going to lose another regular season game this season, this is it. Pitino has flat out owned Jim Boeheim over the last half decade, coming up with schemes to score against Boeheim’s patented 2-3 zone. Pitino’s issue this season is that his team doesn’t shoot threes well (despite last week’s success) and struggles to score in general. Louisville likes to press and a faster tempo could play right into the hands of the Orange. Louisville has Wayne Blackshear healthy for the first time this season after playing 20 minutes in Saturday’s win over West Virginia. Blackshear could be a key factor in the game because he adds depth and scoring ability to a Louisville lineup that is one of the few that comes close to Syracuse in terms of depth. The Orange are still much superior in that category but Louisville can rotate players in and out, keeping them fresh for 40 minutes. This should be a close game with Louisville’s shooting ability likely to be the determining factor.

#7 Kansas @ Kansas State – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN (****)

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With College Gameday in the house, the Big 12 Conference lead on the line and a century-old rivalry nearing its end, the stakes could not possibly be any higher for Saturday night’s Border War showdown between Kansas and Missouri. It’s not just the league’s must-see game this weekend. It’s one of the most important regular-season games of the entire 2011-12 college basketball season, second maybe only to the rematch in Lawrence later this month. As for the rest of the league, Baylor must keep pace with a road game in Stillwater, while Kansas State will look to salvage its season when it hosts Texas A&M. 

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

• #8 Kansas at #4 Missouri, Saturday, 8 PM CT (ESPN)

Jeff Withey Could Be a Difference-Maker Against Missouri (KemperLesnik/B. Spurlock)

1. Frank Martin may be the most entertaining coach in college basketball, but his recent comments may come back to bite him. Martin referred to a late no-call against Iowa State as “an absolute joke,” a phrase he often uses with reporters to describe a variety of situations. Big 12 commissioner Chuck Neinas said he’s “aware of the situation,” which means he’ll review everything and make a decision. That wasn’t the only thing Martin said, though. He continued: “We never shot a free throw. Every time we took a deep breath on the other side Iowa State shot a free throw.” For precedent, the article mentions that former Texas Tech coach Pat Knight once missed a game after his own criticism of referees. That may be in the works for Martin, depending on how lenient Neinas feels here.
2. Until the Tulsa World pointed it out, we didn’t notice that Oklahoma forward Romero Osby has been wearing a boot since mid-January. Osby said he injured his Achilles, but he’s also said it has improved lately and that the boot is for “precautionary reasons.” It hasn’t seemed to slow Osby at all. Since adding that boot, he has scored in double figures in four of five games, including a double-double against Baylor. Osby has been an important addition for Lon Kruger after transferring from Mississippi State, so it’s important for him to stay healthy and keep producing.
3. The Big 12 is a three-horse race right now between Kansas, Missouri and Baylor. All three will easily make the NCAA Tournament, and all three could potentially earn a top seed. As for the rest of the league? It’s up in the air at this point. Kansas State and Iowa State look like decent bets to make the NCAAs, and the Cyclones in particular are certainly trending up, although neither is a lock at this point. There’s also still a small chance Texas could find a way into the Dance, although Rick Barnes is in serious danger of missing the tourney for the first time during his stint in Austin.
4. As for ISU’s situation, players and coaches are trying to not pay attention to the NCAA Tournament talk. The program hasn’t made the Dance since 2004-05, but the chatter is starting to heat up during Big 12 play. Coach Fred Hoiberg said the team has “been great” in staying focused, and Chris Allen said “I try to stay away from predictions.” Iowa State has its signature win over Kansas, but now it must close out the season strong to stay afloat. Whether players want to talk about it or not, the dream is very much alive at this point.
5. The Border War game between Missouri and Kansas on Saturday may be the most anticipated contest in series history, especially considering it may be the last time the two teams meet in Columbia for the near future. Naturally, MU students are already camping out for College Gameday’s visit on Saturday morning. It’s terrific to see such great fan support, but it begs a serious question: Don’t these people have class? We envy anyone with the ability to skip two days of classes in favor of camping out in a tent outside Mizzou Arena.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Conference battles are heating up across the country as we head into the last month of regular season play. A lot will happen from not till the beginning of March, so it’s more important than ever to get a glimpse of as many teams as you can before tourney time. Let’s take a look at tonight’s action.

Tom Izzo and Michigan State need to prove themselves on the road.

#8 Michigan State at Illinois – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• As of Sunday, there are only three teams that rank in the top ten in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings – Kentucky, Syracuse, and Michigan State. In Big Ten play, Michigan State is lighting it up on the offensive end, ranking number one in both two-point and three-point shooting percentage. The Spartans face a true road test tonight against Illinois and it is on the road where Tom Izzo’s club still needs to prove itself. Michigan State is 2-2 on the road in conference and 4-4 on the season away from the Breslin Center. Michigan State has only allowed 5 teams to shoot over 50% eFG all season and each time it was on the road. They are 1-4 when a team goes over 50% eFG. Izzo and company has to play strong defense against 7’1” Illini center Meyers Leonard, who is hitting 60% of this two-point attempts. Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne are Michigan State’s tallest regulars at 6’9” and 6’10”, respectively. That’s a tough match-up for them individually, so look for the possible double team to prevent Leonard from taking over the game. If the Spartans get beat, it will be because the Illini two-pointed them to death.
• Illinois started the season off at a promising 10-0. They have since gone 5-6 and dropped their last three games and are in danger of dropping completely out of contention in the Big Ten. While Illinois has maintained its mediocre shooting in Big Ten play, their downfall has been an increase in turnovers and poor offensive rebounding. More turnovers and less second chance points equals empty possessions. For a team that has shot under 50% eFG in over half of its games, that’s a losing equation. However, the Illini has two saving graces on their side, they are playing at home where they are 11-1 (3-1) and they have the tallest guy on the court who happens to be very skilled. Illinois needs to feed the big man to have a chance in this one.
• The game hinges on Leonard’s ability to establish himself on the interior and Michigan State’s defensive strategy to deny him the ball. The winner of that chess match is likely to win the game. Also, keep a close eye on turnovers. Michigan State leads the Big Ten in steals, while Illinois gets the ball stolen more than anyone else in the league. Empty possessions for Bruce Weber’s squad will spell doom.

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Steve Fetch is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12. You can also find his musings online at Rock Chalk Talk or on Twitter @fetch9.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was

• Jayhawks Tumble In Ames: Kansas lost its first conference game, losing 74-62 to Iowa State in Ames. Kansas didn’t make many shots and sent the Cyclones to the foul line, but what will undoubtedly make Bill Self the angriest is the general lack of effort. Kansas had the second-lowest offensive rebound rate of Self’s tenure, and there were multiple times when a lone Cyclone got a loose ball despite three Jayhawks being around it. It certainly won’t be a fun couple of practices for the Jayhawks this week as they get prepped for Missouri.
• Nash Bash: Like Kansas, Missouri was bitten by the upset bug, losing 79-72 in Stillwater. LeBryan Nash had by far the best game of his college career, pouring in 27 points on 12-18 shooting (3-4 from three), and the Cowboys held Missouri to just 4-19 shooting from distance. Missouri probably has the best offense in the country, but it is so dependent on jump shots that when they have an off night in that department, they seem to be a bit more vulnerable to an upset than the best offense in the country should be.
• White Shows His Stripes: ESPN had a very nice story on Iowa State forward Royce White, highlighting some of the issues he has had in his life with anxiety. White had numerous criminal and other behavior issues while at Minnesota and while his anxiety should not be used as a blanket excuse, it is yet another caution that we as fans should not make our minds up about a player’s character without knowing the full story.

After Spinning His Wheels For Most Of The Season, LeBryan Nash Raised The Roof In Stillwater. (AP)

Power Rankings

1. Kansas (17-4, 7-1): The Jayhawks remain in first in the rankings due to their loss being “better” than Missouri’s. They are just now hitting the meat of their conference schedule, with three of their next five games on the road at Missouri, Baylor, and Kansas State. Winning all three of them will all but lock up the conference title for Kansas, but if they play like they did in Ames they will be lucky to win one of them, and their streak of Big 12 titles could be over.
2. Missouri (17-2, 4-1): The Tigers, as I mentioned above, rebounded nearly half of their misses at Baylor over the weekend and shot 68% from two, with Ricardo Ratliffe scoring 27 points on 11-14 shooting.  All season, they have struggled rebounding and at defending the two-point shot, so questions about how they will react when faced with size in the tournament are still valid, but they answered some of those questions on Saturday. Read the rest of this entry »

After earning a spot in Frank Martin‘s starting five earlier this month, Jordan Henriquez learned Thursday that his coach has indefinitely suspended him. The situation does not seem all that serious, especially since Martin used the mysterious “conduct detrimental to the team” excuse to suspend his 7’0” junior center. Martin said Henriquez, who will not practice during the suspension, has “lost sense of what’s expected of him on a daily basis.” In his past two outings, Henriquez scored a total of three points in 16 minutes against Oklahoma and Texas. Before that, though, Henriquez actually looked like a breakout candidate. He dominated his team’s win over Missouri on the defensive end and scored 12 points in a loss to Baylor last week. No longer did Henriquez look like a project. He looked like an elite big man in the making.

Frank Martin Wants Jordan Henriquez To Take Some Time Off (Credit: Jeff Moffett/Icon SMI)

Something must have changed with Henriquez’s approach. And it happened rather quickly. But judging by Martin’s encouraging language, don’t expect him to sit out for too long. It doesn’t sound like Henriquez broke any laws or even violated any rules off-the-court. Perhaps a few games off will get his head right.

Martin needs his center back as soon as possible. Henriquez is not a star, but he is Kansas State’s best shot-blocker and the only player capable of controlling a game defensively in the paint. Fortunately, Martin has assembled a deep team this season with a lot of bodies, especially at forward. Still, Nino Williams, another reserve forward, is also hurt, which means Martin may need to use freshman Adrian Diaz in his rotation more. Diaz, another seven-footer out of Florida, played eight minutes and scored two points against Texas.

1. Fred Hoiberg has injected new life into the Iowa State program this year as the Cyclones and Royce White in particular are starting to make headlines with their pesky play. They nearly knocked off Missouri at home, and they led Kansas at the Phog for a stretch during the second half. But don’t expect a celebration for moral victories in Ames any time soon. As Scott Christopherson puts it, “Oklahoma State does not care that we played Kansas tough at Kansas… Actually, nobody really cares.” That’s harsh, but it’s the mindset Christopherson and ISU need to have for the rest of the season. Hanging tough isn’t good enough in major Division I basketball– that’s what gets coaches fired and players scrutinized.
2. Three Big 12 basketball players have made the Mid-Season Watch List for the Wooden Award, and none of the names will surprise you: Perry Jones (Baylor), Marcus Denmon (Missouri), and Thomas Robinson (Kansas). Overall, 25 players made the list, and the vote will not take place until March. Compared to Denmon and Jones, Robinson probably has a better shot at this national award, but all three will be in the mix for Big 12 Player of the Year and All-Conference honors.
3. A little SEC news may have some collateral damage for the Big 12. Apparently, the SEC may be interested in using Kansas City as a possible host for the men’s basketball tournament in March. Obviously, that would conflict with the Big 12 men’s basketball tournament, which is slated to stay in the city for the time being. There’s no definitive answer on this issue right now, but it underscores a larger point: conference realignment is taking a toll on every team in every conference, and the arguments aren’t over at this point.
4. With all of its injuries and personnel issues, it’s easy to forget about Oklahoma State. At 2-2, though, it’s not as though the Cowboys’ Big 12 season has been a disaster thus far. Yes, the 41-point loss to Baylor does not look good, but Travis Ford‘s teams have made a habit of storming back during his tenure. That’s not to say this Oklahoma State team will replicate that success, of course. Ford’s early teams had an emotional leader in Byron Eaton and a never-say-die attitude. Perhaps Keiton Page is the next candidate to lead Oklahoma State to the promised land– the NCAA Tournament– in his senior season.
5. In desperate need of quality wins right now, Texas will travel to Kansas State in a game both teams need to win to salvage their seasons. The Longhorns are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in more than a decade. They will have to deal with Kansas State’s energetic home crowd, and the Wildcats cannot afford to drop another home game. At 1-3, it’s already been a rough start for Frank Martin‘s team. Things could get ugly in Manhattan if that record falls to 1-4.

Big 12 Alley-Oops and Airballs is a weekly article examining what’s hot and what’s not in Big 12 basketball.

Another week of Big 12 college hoops is in the books, and the contenders are separating themselves in the standings from the pretenders. Still, there are a few middle-dwellers that I cannot figure out. Iowa State has a great coach, a star player, and a winning conference record. However, they lack a marquee win, and have still not shown they can defeat a better team. J’Covan Brown continues to lead Texas to an impressive record, but is relied upon too heavily. The youngsters in burnt orange need to mature, and fast, if they want to make a run at the conference crown.

Royce White Enjoying the Hilton Magic. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Alley-Oops

• Kansas: The Jayhawks are hot, and getting hotter. Kansas recently cracked the Top 10, and judging by their schedule, Kansas might not leave it the rest of the season. They are undefeated in conference play, Thomas Robinson is playing some of the nation’s best basketball, and even Tyshawn Taylor has found a way to reduce his amount of turnovers in recent games.
• Frank Martin: While it’s easy to argue Frank Martin’s placement in this category due to the Wildcats 1-2 record in conference play, Martin might be doing his best coaching job yet this season. After a frustrating loss to Kansas, Martin fired up his boys and executed a perfect game plan against Missouri, handing the Tigers their first loss. Three days later, Kansas State continued their brutal conference start by hosting Baylor. Martin and the Wildcats gave the Bears their toughest test of the season, and narrowly lost by two. There’s no such thing as a good loss, but the way Kansas State played against the undefeated Bears, there was a lot of good to take from the game.

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1. Did you know that Baylor is apparently “for real”? This lovely website had no less than three articles about the matter — one from yours truly — and now Yahoo! Sports is in on the fun with another piece on the Bears’ early success. It’s pretty easy to see why we’re all so high on Scott Drew‘s team after their win at Kansas State. These Bears appear to be having fun this season, and they’re playing together. Like they really want to win this season, despite all of the future NBA accolades for Perry Jones and everybody else on the roster. Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip have made major impacts in their first seasons at the guard position, and this team plays its tail off defensively. Final Four, here they come. Why not?
2. Staying with that BU/KSU game for a moment, Rodney McGruder looked pretty darn good on Tuesday night. He scored 30 points and seems to have emerged as a star, even though he did not get a chance to win the game on the final possession. Frank Martin drew up a play for him, but BU’s defense denied him the ball. Next time KSU is in that situation, you’d better believe it will make sure McGruder has the basketball in his hands. As a strong but explosive wing player, he is a tough matchup for every team, and there’s nothing holding him back from making the All-Big 12 team.
3. And finally, one last note on that game from Tuesday: Frank Martin is awesome on television. Sure, he’ll violate some FCC rules every once in a while, but Martin’s postgame interview with Fox Sports Net is golden. This blog post we linked to also did not show you the halftime interview, in which Martin seemed almost speechless after his team played poorly for the half’s final six minutes. Hopefully, Martin sticks with this whole coaching thing for a little longer, because we couldn’t bear the thought of missing his interviews.
4. Nobody noticed Bedlam on Monday outside of the state of Oklahoma, and some people aren’t happy about how the series has collapsed lately. The Oklahoma/Oklahoma State basketball game was actually scheduled near the same time slot as the BCS National Championship game, which shows you how far the rivalry has fallen. It began at 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU; the football game started at 8 PM CT and had hours of pregame coverage beforehand. If you flipped to the game on Monday, you did at least see a decent crowd turn out in Stillwater. So Bedlam has that going for it.
5. Depending on how old you are, it’s highly probable that you have fond memories of Kansas‘s 2002 Final Four team. Well, members of that team will attend KU’s game with Iowa State on Saturday, but some of the most notable names haven’t confirmed they’ll attend yet. Wayne Simien will be there, but there’s no word on Kirk Hinrich, Nick Collison or Drew Gooden. And what about Roy Williams, people? I’m going to go out on a limb and say the coach won’t be in Lawrence this weekend. Just a hunch. Even if UNC weren’t playing, he might not be so welcome, unless he wears his Jayhawk shirt again.

After 40 minutes of overwhelming deflections, steals and disruptions, it was fitting that Quincy Acy sealed fourth-ranked Baylor‘s 75-73 victory over Kansas State on Tuesday by swatting an inbounds pass away. The undefeated Bears may have allowed KSU to shoot 50% from the field, but they also rattled the Wildcats on their home floor with their superhuman length and athleticism. At one point during the second half, Baylor turned three steals near midcourt into dunks and layups at the other end in the span of four possessions. And before Acy’s final swat as time expired, it was another deflection by Baylor that prevented a potential game-tying layup by Angel Rodriguez, who could not convert a wide open look when a trailing defender tipped the ball out of bounds.

Baylor's Active Hands Helped It Seal a Road Win (KC Star)

Baylor turned the ball over 18 times itself, but KSU finished with 20 turnovers and looked uncomfortable all night long, especially in the second half. Scott Drew has mostly played some form of 2-3 and 1-3-1 zone during the past few seasons, but tonight he went strictly man-to-man in the second half. It paid off. Though KSU found open perimeter looks against BU’s zones, the switch to a man look let the Bears’ defenders hound the opposing guards. It’s scary to imagine what could happen if Baylor continues to defend at this level.

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