Vegas Odds: March Madness Edition

Posted by rtmsf on March 8th, 2012

We’re in the middle of Championship Week and roughly 80 hours away from learning the names of the 68 teams that will compete in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Most of the elite teams have yet to suit up in their conference tourneys so we thought it would be a good time to take another look at how Vegas bookmakers are viewing the best teams heading into this final weekend prior to the bracket release on Sunday. We ran through this exercise in both the preseason and again in December before conference season got under way, so it’s always instructive to see how the perception of teams has changed in the eyes of those who make their livelihoods from knowing such things. Although there’s been a good amount of movement among the top 10 teams on our list, the top two have remained Kentucky and North Carolina with a bullet, far above the rest of the field all season long. As the season has progressed, Vegas has gotten even more in these two teams’ corners, at this point suggesting that combined (and normalized to 100% total among all teams) the Wildcats and Tar Heels have a 33.7% chance of cutting down the nets in New Orleans. One in three — not bad at all.

*The remaining listed schools were too numerous to name, but they included most of the remainder of the power conference teams.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Top 25: FINAL

Posted by KDoyle on March 5th, 2012

For the seventh straight week, Kentucky heads the Top 25. The Wildcats breezed through the SEC portion of their schedule and are en route to the #1 overall seed heading into the NCAA Tournament. Florida and Baylor are two teams that continue to slide as their defense — or lack thereof — has been exposed. The Quick ‘n Dirty after the jump…

 

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

SEC Morning Five: 03.05.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Joyce on March 5th, 2012

  1. Florida has lost three games in a row, but that doesn’t mean the Gators are lacking in confidence. “I don’t think our confidence is ever going to be a problem,” said Florida junior Erik Murphy, who added 14 points and tied a season high with eight rebounds. “We’ve got a bunch of confident guys on this team. We haven’t been playing too great and hopefully we can start putting it together.” The Gators are playing with effort, despite the results. “Whether you play hard or not, you’ve got to come out with the win,” Florida senior point guard Erving Walker said. “We’re in a one-and-done situation now, so we gotta figure this out.” Florida will have a bye into the second round of the SEC Tournament for the extra benefit of added practice time.
  2. The Florida players may not have come through against Kentucky, but the Gators’ fans came ready. Florida fans distributed this chant guide to organize the crowd’s heckling efforts against Kentucky players during Sunday’s game. But do Florida fans really need a guide to remember how to cheer? While it was a was a nice effort, Gator fans were really digging deep on this one. Needles? Wait, Anthony Davis has a unibrow? The heckling fell about as flat as the Gators defense on this Sunday afternoon.
  3. Tennessee is officially on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, but the Vols know they just need to focus on winning. “Whatever the numbers are, there’s nothing we can do but play games and win games,” UT coach Cuonzo Martin said on Sunday. “We control our own situation. Whoever we play against, all we can do is everything in our power to win that game.” Just how many games do the Vols need to win? “A win at the SEC tourney makes NCAA possible,” ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi said, “two wins makes it probable.” Tennessee gets the winner of Ole Miss and Auburn on Friday. The Vols have an RPI of 76 currently, and obviously have work to do in order to feel safe on selection Sunday.
  4. Some might argue that the Vols already have the look and feel of an NCAA Tournament team. The progress the Vols have made under Martin was obvious when Tennessee kept fighting on Saturday even when Vanderbilt cut the Vols’ second half lead to just two points.  “That’s our growth as a team,” Tennessee point guard Trae Golden said. “Back in the day, at the beginning of the season, we probably would’ve lost the lead and lost the game.” Pundits can compare numbers like the RPI all day long, but sometimes a team has to pass the eye test. And Martin knows he has an NCAA team on his hands. “We’re changing the culture and defining what we expect,” he said.
  5. Ole Miss is also in the hunt for an NCAA berth with a solid showing in the SEC Tournament, but the Rebels will need Jelan Kendrick to make an impact. Kendrick didn’t play in the Rebels’ win on Saturday because of a coach’s decision. Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said he would “revisit” the situation before determining whether the troubled freshman will play in the SEC Tournament on Thursday. Saturday marked the third time that Kennedy chose not to play Kendrick even though he was eligible to play.
Share this story

Set Your TiVo: 03.02.12 – 03.04.12

Posted by Brian Otskey on March 2nd, 2012

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are going to mix it up a bit for the final three days of the season. There are so many good games on the schedule that it wouldn’t do them justice to leave them unmentioned, not to mention the games with an impact for bubble teams. Here are some quick hitters on all the games you need to be following.

Top games:

West Virginia @ South Florida – 12:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

The Bulls notched a huge win over Louisville earlier this week, but many feel they still have to win this game to ensure their spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers are hanging on by a thread but could really enhance their chances with a nice road victory in Tampa. This game has Big East Tournament implications as well, but both teams need it more for their NCAA chances. As a member of the Big East, South Florida has beaten 14 of the 15 other teams in the league. West Virginia is the only team they have yet to knock off. This would be one heck of a time to grab that win in West Virginia’s last regular season game as a member of the Big East. Pretty much everything is on the line in this game.

Can West Virginia Win A Big One On The Road?

#11 Georgetown @ #8 Marquette – 2:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

Both teams are obviously in the NCAA Tournament so this game is about seeding more than anything. A win over the Golden Eagles would be Georgetown’s ninth against the RPI top 50 and fifth against the top 25. Marquette has just one RPI top 25 win (Wisconsin) so adding another could really help Marquette’s seeding when the NCAA committee debates next Sunday in Indianapolis. The winner of this game will grab the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. The contrast of styles in this game will be fascinating as Marquette looks to run at home against a disciplined Georgetown defensive unit.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

SEC Morning Five: 03.02.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Joyce on March 2nd, 2012

  1. JaMychal Green’s role has been somewhat limited as of late because of a suspension handed down from coach Anthony Grant, but Green stepped up in a big way on Senior Night. “For this to be my last game at the Coliseum, that’s the way I’d like to go out,” Green said. “I really didn’t think of it as my last game, I just thought about winning.” Green scored 13 of his 15 points in the second half, including a tip in with just 34 seconds remaining in the game as the Crimson Tide went on to beat rival Auburn. For Alabama to be effective in the NCAA Tournament, Green will be a key reason why.
  2. Arnett Moultrie is now praising his team for its togetherness, just days after he blasted them for an inability to turn the season around. After the Bulldogs’ win over South Carolina, Moultrie said, “The team is together. It’s always been together since Day 1. We’re enjoying this win right now and hopefully it’ll start a streak and get us going so we can make a nice run in the NCAA Tournament.” Moultrie was a big reason for the victory. The power forward finished with 15 points and 12 rebounds for his 17th double double of the season. This win ended a five-game losing streak for the Bulldogs, and hopefully squashed some team turmoil that seemed to be brewing from within.
  3. After two straight losses, Florida is focused on getting better, even if it is March. While UF’s next opponent, Kentucky, played Georgia Thursday night, the Gators were able to focus on making improvements in practice. “I think the next 11 to 12 days for our team will be critical because we do have some periods where we can practice and focus on ourselves,” coach Billy Donovan said. Florida looks to avoid its first three-game losing streak since the 2009-10 season.
  4. Tennessee kept hope alive for a first round bye in the SEC Tournament. After beating LSU on Wednesday night, the Volunteers need to beat Vanderbilt on Saturday to avoid playing next Thursday in the conference tournament. Coach Cuonzo Martin stressed the team’s desire as the primary reason for its victory Wednesday, and of its key ingredient for success moving forward. “The key was heart,” said Martin. “We’ve been through these situations plenty of times before, and we had the heart and mental toughness to win it.” Martin’s team may have a lot of heart, but it also has a lot of freshman Jarnell Stokes. Stokes came up big on Wednesday with a career high 18 points.
  5. Kentucky has come a long way since 2009 when Georgia came to Lexington and spoiled Senior Night. On March 4, 2009, the Bulldogs beat the Wildcats 90-85 while UK was under head coach Billy Gillispie. What a difference a couple of years make. At the end of Gillispie’s era at UK, the Wildcats’ future was in question as they were coming off a 3-5 end to the SEC season and a trip to the NIT. Now, the Cats are fresh off a Final Four trip, and are hoping to attend another one this year. And of course, the Wildcats are looking to go a perfect 16-0 in conference play for the first time since 2003. A lot has changed, and John Calipari deserves way more credit then he gets for that transformation.
Share this story

SEC Morning Five: 03.1.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Joyce on March 1st, 2012

  1. After losing two games in a row and four of its last seven, it is time to start wondering what is happening to Florida. In the case of Tuesday’s loss to Vanderbilt, it was simply a matter of not being aware of where the Commodores’ top player and ridiculously good shooter, John Jenkins, was on the floor. “I thought we had a couple of breakdowns where in the zone a couple of times we let Jenkins get loose which is really uncalled for because it’s not hard to locate where he’s at,” Florida coach Billy Donovan said. “And then there was a couple of plays where there were offensive rebounds thrown back out to him. I thought our rebounding to start the second half really, really hurt us.” Jenkins was the catalyst for Vanderbilt, torching the Gators on six of nine shooting from beyond the arc for 22 points on the night. Defensive pressure remains the key for the Gators as they have lost every game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot over 50% from the field.
  2. The guys at Alligator Army have succumbed to the thought that this is who the Florida Gators are this season, for better or for worse. They zeroed in on the aforementioned defensive troubles, but also discussed a couple of offensive struggles. The lack of a post presence has affected other areas of the offense, severely diminishing Florida’s three-point accuracy. The Gators were eight of 24 from three point land, and got very little production from center Patric Young. Young scored just four points in 25 minutes on Tuesday night. In order for Florida to regain its offensive firepower, it will have to figure out how to replace Will Yeguete‘s intensity and toughness and find a way to get Young more involved in the game plan offensively.
  3. Florida’s loss is Vanderbilt’s gain. The Commodores have been in hot pursuit of another marquee win to add to their resume, and their victory over the Gators prove they are peaking at just the right time. Vanderbilt blog, Anchor of Gold, found solace in the fact that the Commodores won this one with grit and determination. “It’s only one game, but it’s the kind of game that this team has found ways to lose in the past.” With the NCAA Tournament on the horizon, and Vanderbilt’s biggest question mark being its confidence, this win couldn’t have come at a better time.
  4. A Sea of Blue took a fantastic look at what Kentucky did to limit John Jenkins’ looks in the Cats victory over Vanderbilt on Saturday. Kentucky guard Doron Lamb was active in chasing Jenkins off screens and curls making it difficult for Jenkins to get an open look at the basket. Stats are not everything as the guys at A Sea of Blue point out. “It would be tempting to say that Lamb had a bad defensive game – Jenkins did score 18 points and shoot 44.4% (4 of 9) on his threes. But a lot of what Lamb did so well was in preventing shots – an aspect of defense that is more difficult to account for systematically.” In light of Jenkins’ performance on Tuesday against Florida, it’s an interesting read and great analysis as always.
  5. John Clay of the Lexington Herald Leader makes the case that Kentucky coach John Calipari should win the conference Coach of the Year honors. As Clay points out before mentioning others in the league worthy of consideration, “John Calipari should win SEC Coach of the Year honors — his team is unbeaten in the league, for heaven’s sake.” Of course, Cal’s Cats haven’t run the table yet. On Thursday, Kentucky faces Georgia, fresh off a win over Florida, and then the Cats travel to Gainesville for an always difficult matchup with Florida. If the Wildcats finish a perfect 16-0, it will be interesting to see if Calipari makes a strong run at the NCAA Coach of the Year award. This could serve as somewhat of a test of how the rest of the country views this accomplishment in terms of the perception of the strength of the SEC.
Share this story

Still Plenty of Questions Surrounding Gators

Posted by rtmsf on February 29th, 2012

David Changas is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after last night’s Florida-Vanderbilt game in Nashville.

As the college basketball regular season draws to a close, talk of bubbles being popped and which teams will secure #1 seeds dominates the conversation. What does not get discussed as much is the teams that are solidly in the field, but who no one expects to hear much from once the Big Dance arrives. One such team is the struggling Florida Gators. After dropping their second road contest in a row to Vanderbilt on Tuesday night, the Gators are staring at the likelihood of ending the regular season with three consecutive losses.

For Better Or Worse, Billy Donovan's Crew Lives By The Three-Point Shot (AP)

Mighty Kentucky comes to the O’Connell Center on Sunday in the regular season finale seeking a perfect SEC record (assuming a home win over Georgia Thursday night). From what the Gators have shown us in their last two outings – and from what Kentucky has shown us over the past two months – there is little reason to think the Wildcats won’t achieve conference perfection. A look at Florida’s resume shows very few wins over quality teams. The Gators have handled most of the teams they should have beaten – Tennessee (twice) and Georgia notwithstanding – but home victories over Florida State and Vanderbilt and a road win against an Alabama team playing without its two best players are the only wins the Gators have over NCAA Tournament-bound teams.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Top 25 Snapshot: 02.29.12

Posted by zhayes9 on February 29th, 2012

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

As the calendar flips from February to March and the college basketball world rejoices at the prospect of another rapidly approaching NCAA Tournament, it’s time to take stock as to where the top teams around the country stand. When the long-awaited tournament does commence, the path to glory evolves into a narrative predicated on matchups rather than rankings, so allow this to serve as more of a final snapshot as the regular season winds to a conclusion. Who is peaking at the right time? Whose style of play translates best into the grind of March? What perceived flaws could derail a run deep into March? Let’s begin with the team most currently resembling a seemingly unflappable juggernaut:

The Spartans crack the top 5 in the latest rankings

1. Kentucky (28-1, 14-0)

Locating a potentially fatal weakness in a team one buzzer-beater away from an undefeated record isn’t an easy task. Freshman point guard Marquis Teague, much like his predecessors at the position under John Calipari, has improved substantially throughout the season, posting 52 assists compared to 21 turnovers in his last nine SEC games. Their athleticism will render even the best man-to-man defense ineffective and the combination of Doron Lamb and Darius Miller can make shots over any zone look. Kentucky also boasts arguably the best perimeter defender in the country in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – whom Calipari utilized to suffocate Dee Bost in the second half of their comeback win in Starkville – and the best post defender in National POY frontrunner Anthony Davis (4.8 blocks per game and countless other alterations and denials). If there’s one nitpick it’s the fact Kentucky rates #84 in the country in three-point defense and rarely forces turnovers defensively; if Teague reverts to his sloppy ways, Lamb/Miller have an off-shooting night against a zone and a team is able to make jump shots over their length, Kentucky could slip in a one-and-done scenario.

2. Syracuse (29-1, 16-1)

The Orange still only have one blemish on their resume – a blowout loss at Notre Dame without indispensable center Fab Melo – but they haven’t exactly been blowing away the opposition the last few weeks, edging West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville and Connecticut by three points or less and barely getting by both USF and Rutgers with late runs. There’s room for improvement, especially on the offensive boards where opponents are snagging 38.3 percent of available misses, one of the drawbacks of playing every possession in a zone defense where no specific man is assigned to keep off the glass. They compensate for plenty of those second-chance points with the best zone defense Jim Boeheim has employed in recent memory and a capacity to convert a Dion Waiters steal (tenth in steal percentage) or a Melo swat (fifth in block percentage) into a transition opportunity where the Orange excel. Their enviable depth also allows Boeheim to shuffle in and out as many as ten different players depending on opposing personnel, foul trouble, the flow of the game and Scoop Jardine’s focus level.

3. Kansas (25-5, 15-2)

Thomas Robinson deservedly receives most of the accolades, but Tyshawn Taylor’s been the best at his position in the Big 12 since conference play began. He’s a matchup nightmare for opposing point guards because of his size, strong frame, quick first step and blazing end-to-end speed. Taylor is also efficient shooting the basketball from both inside (51 percent) and outside (44 percent) the arc while correcting his career-long battle with turnovers, committing just six or more in a game just twice during Big 12 play. With Elijah Johnson taking on more of a distributing role, Travis Releford as a glue guy defender and zero guard depth on the roster, the much-maligned Taylor has had to shoulder a heavy load and is a gigantic reason why Kansas continued their incredible streak of eight consecutive conference titles. Robinson and Taylor will pack a punch, but their prospects in March may come down to whether Jeff Withey can provide a third scoring option and Connor Teahan hits outside shots off the bench. Withey injured his ankle and played just nine minutes against Missouri, a loss that won’t be absorbed so easily in the NCAA Tournament against a bigger frontline.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Set Your TiVo: 02.28.12

Posted by bmulvihill on February 28th, 2012

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are counting down until March as the college hoops frenzy begins to build. Tonight the Michigan State Spartans look to clinch an improbable Big Ten regular season title and some teams in question look for answers in the SEC.

#4 Michigan State at #21 Indiana – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

  • With a win tonight, Michigan State would clinch the Big Ten regular season title and a possible number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans are playing extremely strong basketball heading into March having won seven games in a row. Over the last 10 games, only Minnesota was able to shoot above 50% eFG against Tom Izzo and company. Keep a close eye on how Sparty defends Indiana’s two-point shooting specifically Cody Zeller. While Indiana is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation, they do not take many from downtown and their offense depends quite heavily on the free throw line. If Michigan State is playing strong interior defense without fouling, the Hoosiers will have a tough time winning this game.

Tom Izzo goes for another regular season Big Ten title tonight.

  • It will be important for Indiana to establish Zeller early by feeding the post. Additionally, the guards need to drive the ball to the net to create fouls or easy three-point opportunities on the drive and kick. Look to see if Indiana can create turnovers. Michigan State has had some trouble with turnovers including a turnover rate of 28% in their last game against Nebraska. While that game was a complete blow out, Indiana’s offense can make a team pay for such mistakes. The Hoosiers are 3-7 when creating turnovers on less than 18% of opponents possessions, so it’s an extremely important stat to watch during the game.
  • This game will be won in the paint. Michigan State throws Draymond Green, Adreian Payne, and Derrick Nix at Zeller. The trio held Zeller to 4 points and 4 rebounds in 23 minutes of action in the Spartans victory over the Hoosiers in late December. Zeller is going to have to have a much bigger game in order to take this one from the Spartans.
Share this story

SEC Morning Five: 02.28.12 Edition

Posted by Brian Joyce on February 28th, 2012

  1. Kentucky’s Anthony Davis was named SEC Player of the Week for his demonstrative performances against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Davis averaged 20.5 points, 11 rebounds, 3.5 blocks, and two steals including a career-high 28 points to go with 11 rebounds against the Commodores. Kentucky’s freshmen swept the awards this week as Wildcat Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was named the SEC Freshman of the Week. Kidd-Gilchrist averaged 13 points, nine rebounds, two assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals. He scored 18 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in Kentucky’s win in Starkville.
  2. Despite the loss on Saturday, Vanderbilt was encouraged with its play against the #1 team in the land, the Kentucky Wildcats. “We got down 10 and I thought our guys really showed some courage coming back and getting the game back to where it was,” Commodores coach Kevin Stallings said. While winning is the measure of any good team, Vanderbilt has to feel good about playing tough in Rupp Arena where the Cats have won 51 straight. “They’ve had their way with most people in here,” Stallings said. “We lost but the game was a game for 38 or 39 of the 40 minutes.” Vanderbilt’s experience in a hostile environment in Rupp, albeit during a loss, could give the ‘Dores the confidence they need going into March that they can play with anyone in the country.
  3. Tennessee freshman Jarnell Stokes is still adjusting to the college game, after he became eligible for the Volunteers during mid-season. Vols coach Cuonzo Martin, for one, is impressed with Stokes’ progress. “Jarnell has a good pace to his game; he doesn’t rush, he does a good job reading the defense, and for his size, he has good footwork and quickness,” Martin said. “You’re asking a kid that should still be in high school kid to come in and play at the SEC level against great competition without a preseason or the 14 games before league play.” As good as Stokes has been for Tennessee this season, even mid-season form is a scary thought for Vols’ opponents.
  4. Without the physical nature of forward Will Yeguete, Florida struggled on the defensive end in its loss to Georgia on Saturday. “We got hung up on screens and did not do a great job defensively at all,” coach Billy Donovan said. The Gators let the Bulldogs shoot 52.9 percent from the field, while being outscored by Georgia 38-26 in the paint. “There is an immaturity in understanding the other team’s guys are on scholarship. The other team’s guys are preparing hard,” Donovan said. Field goal percentage defense has been an especially important measure for Donovan’s Gators. Florida has given up over 50% shooting three times this season (at Tennessee, at Kentucky, and at Georgia), and all three games ended up as losses for the Gators.
  5. Mississippi State Bulldogs has been unraveling late in conference play. After appearing to be one of the surprise teams of the season with their solid play throughout the early going, the Bulldogs are on an alarming five game losing streak. “It’s real disappointing because I just see our season slipping away right in front of our eyes,” forward Arnett Moultrie said. “All we need is one win. I believe we’ll be able to get on a winning streak.” The players, obviously, aren’t taking this situation lightly.  “It’s real disappointing,” point guard Dee Bost said. “It isn’t fun. It’s not exciting.” Luckily for the Dogs, postseason success is most often the standard for which teams are measured and Mississippi State still has time to turn this season around.
Share this story