Other than Jodie Meeks (see post below), we promised to keep an eye on several other all-americans who were considering leaving school early, but who had put off the decision until the very last minute, i.e., today.  Here’s a list of their decisions, and how it will impact their team…

• Austin Daye, leaving Gonzaga – we said yesterday that we seriously questioned his reported decision to be leaning toward the draft, and it remains so.  Someone will take him due to his size, length and shooting ability, but he’s proven softer than Charmin, so we’re not sure about his long-term prospects.  As for Gonzaga, this is a substantial blow, as the Zags are already losing Josh Heytvelt, Micah Downs and Jeremy Pargo.  It’s never truly a ‘rebuilding’ year for Gonzaga, but Matt Bouldin will have a load to carry in the Pacific NW next season.
• Luke Harangody, staying at Notre Dame – this is a good decision, as Harangody stands to have a good nucleus of players surrounding him at ND next season, and with the Big East not as strong as it was in 2009, the Irish will likely be able to ride ‘Gody and Tory Jackson to an NCAA berth after their disappointing campaign last year.  He’ll also have a legitimate shot at becoming the all-time leading scorer and rebounder in ND basketball history – he needs 730 pts and 370 rebounds, both totals less than he got this season.
• Jeff Teague, leaving Wake Forest – we’re of the opinion that whoever drafts Teague in the late first round will get a steal on par with the Celtics selecting Rajon Rondo several years ago.  In much the same way as Rondo at Kentucky, he mentally checked out of college hoops once he decided he was going pro, but the talent and athleticism is there.  Wake will still have Ish Smith to run point and a decent supporting cast led by Al-Farouq Aminu, but Teague certainly was a difference maker and he will be missed.
• Greivis Vasquez, staying at Maryland – this is another good decision because a more composed senior campaign from Vasquez could easily push the Terp PG into the top twenty of the 2010 draft.  This is huge news for Maryland because the Terps have an experienced team returning to College Park, losing only Dave Neal, and Gary Williams’ team should compete for third place in the ACC next season.
• Ater Majok, staying at Connecticut – this was a pipe dream to begin with, but Majok may end up playing in Europe anyway due to his peripheral association to the ongoing Nate Miles recruiting investigation at UConn.  If he does end up playing for Jim Calhoun next season, there’s no telling how productive he’ll be, so it’s questionable what impact he could have.
• Texas A&M Trio – Chinemelu Elonu is leaving the Aggies, but Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis are returning.  None of these three leaving made any sense whatsoever, and the 6’10 Elonu was clearly talking to the wrong people because he has no shot at getting drafted.  A&M should still be solid with the returns of Sloan and Davis, however.
• Taj Gibson, leaving USC – probably a good decision given his age and the apocalypse going on at USC in the wake of the OJ Mayo scandal.  Do we really need to rehash how this will impact USC next season?  No, we don’t.

We’ll try to do some additional analysis on this year’s draft class later this week, but don’t hold us against it if we don’t.

Well, we’re down to the wire again this year – the NBA’s early entry withdrawal deadline is 5pm EDT Monday – and there are still several notable players who haven’t made up their minds yet.

Before we take a look at the stragglers, let’s take a quick peek at a few who made up their minds over the last few days.  It should be noted that, by and large, these are good decisions.  It will be interesting to see if that holds through Monday’s deadline.

Players Returning to School

• Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech – interesting decision, as Lawal was probably a late first round pick.  Tech may be this year’s Wake Forest (mucho talent on an underachiever) with Lawal and Iman Shumpert returning with superfrosh Derrick Favors coming in.
• Damion James, Texas – another great decision, as James was staring second round or undrafted square in the face.
• Tyler Smith, Tennessee – Bruce Pearl has to be thrilled as he couldn’t have expected to have the hard-working Smith back for a third year in Knoxville.
• Devan Downey & Dominque Archie, South Carolina – neither of these players were ever serious about leaving because they weren’t going to be picked, but their return will make South Carolina a formidable presence in the SEC East next year.

Players Officially Leaving

• Jrue Holiday, UCLA – no big surprise as Holiday has been moving up the boards  in recent weeks.  Maybe Holiday is another example of a player who blossoms at the next level (he sure didn’t at this one).

The one player whose name is on everyone’s mind due to the fact that it will significantly impact next year’s rankings, however, is Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks.  If he decides to return, and there’s nobody in Lexington who seems to know definitively what he’s going to do, then Kentucky is your preseason #1 team without question.  If he does not return, then it’ll probably go to Kansas with Kentucky and several others coming in closely behind.

Here are a few of the names of other players who have waited to the last minute to let the world know their decisions…

• Luke Harangody, Notre Dame – said to be 50/50, but really should return to South Bend.
• Austin Daye, Gonzaga – seriously leaning draft, and we’re seriously questioning that decision.
• Jeff Teague, Wake Forest – almost definitely going, but Dino Gaudio is making a last-minute pitch?
• Greivis Vasquez, Maryland – does anyone know what this kid will do, including himself?

There are quite a few smaller names, but we feel as if this year most of the impact players who should be returning have made a good decision to do so.  We’ll try to update things tomorrow as the news flows in.

Another week has started, and we’re within one week of the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline, so let’s see who’s returning…

• LSU’s Tasmin Mitchell will return to Baton Rouge for his senior season (smart move).
• Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds is leaning toward a return to the Main Line for his senior year (also a smart move).
• Arizona’s Nic Wise will also return for his senior season (a wise move, indeed).
• Miami (FL)’s Dwayne Collins has wisened up and will also be back for his senior season (yep, these guys are getting it).
• Memphis players continue to jump ship, with Shawn Taggart now deciding to forgo his senior season (not a great move, but he’s already 24 and who knows what penalties Memphis may face next season).
• Tennessee’s Tyler Smith is still thinking about returning, but he’s also considering going to Europe to start his professional career.  While on the subject of collegians moving to Europe, Luke Winn explores the issue a little further in the context of Nick Calathes’ decision to play in Greece.
• Wake Forest’s Jeff Teague injured his knee in a workout last week, but is expected to remain in the first round and therefore will most likely stay in the draft.

Some other news bouncing around the early summer months…

• Memphis made its defense to the NCAA on Saturday, and we pretty much agree with most of what Gary Parrish writes here.  Details are scarce as to what was actually said at the hearing, but Kentucky’s John Calipari did phone in from China, and Memphis official stated on the record that they feel that they’d made their case to the NCAA.  Not sure what else they could say in that spot though.  Memphis should hear something from the NCAA in 6-8 weeks.
• The Shane Battier Memorial Rule will be in effect beginning next season.  Wonderful.
• We really don’t have a good feeling about the long-term prospects of Josh Pastner at Memphis.  Nothing against the kid, but Calipari is just too tough of a situation there to follow.  He’s showing his recruiting chops already, but can he coach?
• In a cost-cutting measure, three Big Ten schools (Michigan, Ohio St., Wisconsin) are eliminating their annual media guides for their sports teams.  We’d expect this to be a major trend in the next few months nationwide.   The NCAA is also lending a hand by suspending members’ dues this upcoming year.
• A Tennessee congressman named Steve Cohen is petitioning the NBA to change its “one-and-done” rule.  Interesingly, his district includes Memphis, who is of course dealing with the Derrick Rose fiasco.  Georgia Tech’s Paul Hewitt took offense at some of Cohen’s comments about his former player, Thaddeus Young, and is now demanding an apology.
• Former Razorback Patrick Beverley threw Arkansas under the bus in an interview with DraftExpress when he said, “Someone from Arkansas was doing papers, was doing me and some of my teammates’ papers…”
• UK countersues Billy Gillispie.  This could be really fun.
• Gary Parrish explores Billy Donovan’s thoughts on the Orlando Magic making the NBA Finals two years after he backed out of his commitment to coach that team.
• In a bit of a shock, Fairleigh Dickinson fired head coach Tom Green after 26 years of loyal service, including four NCAA Tournament appearances and 407 wins at the school.
• UT-Martin’s head coach, Bret Campbell, resigned after an internal audit found that he had deposited $20k in basketball camp checks directly into his personal account.

The 2009 NBA Draft Early Entry list is now official, and there are 75 collegiate players with eligibility remaining who think they have a shot at the League this year.  Keep in mind that there are only 60 picks in the 2009 NBA Draft, and the above number doesn’t even include graduating seniors as well as foreign players.  Mathematically speaking, it would serve a number of these players with stars in their eyes well to return to school for at least one more season.  Let’s evaluate each of them.

Players With Agents
First, the players who have already signed with agents, effectively ending their collegiate careers.  For the most part, this group is first-round material, but Brandon Costner, Eric Devendorf, Daniel Hackett and Dar Tucker must know something about their draft status that nobody else does. 

Likely to Stay in Draft 
Next, we have a much smaller group of players who are very likely to stay in the draft, but they have yet to sign with an agent, and there’s been no official word yet.  All five of these players are probably first rounders, but with Nick Calathes, Jrue Holiday and Patty Mills, there remains a possibility of a return to school next season. 

On the Fence
These thirteen players will decide the complexion of college basketball in 2009-10, much as Lawson, Ellington and Green did this season.  For example, if Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson return to Kentucky, that’s a top five team.  If Jeff Teague returns to Wake Forest, same thing.  Derrick Brown at Xavier, Austin Daye at Gonzaga, Luke Harangody at Notre Dame, Gani Lawal at Georgia Tech, Tyler Smith at Tennessee, Jarvis Varnado at Miss. St., Greivis Vasquez at Maryland.  Each of these players is all-american caliber.  This group of players could break a lot of hearts in the next six weeks.

You Gotta be Joking
This group of players has a fair mixture of guys who just want to get evaluated (even though Parrish points out most won’t actually get evaluated) for next season’s draft and players who have no idea what their true value is in terms of NBA scouts.  There are also several who have nowhere else to go, having worn out their welcomes elsewhere.  This list always makes RTC feel a little sad, yet as we now know, the NCAA has enacted a new rule making it so there will be even more ill-informed choices such as these in the future.  Thanks, guys.  Way to look out…

It’s been a light few days, but we’re here to get you caught up on the few things surfacing…

• Florida’s Alex Tyus was transferring, now he’s not.  This confused us until we remembered that he learned from Donovan two-step from the master himself. 
• Bruce Pearl’s romantic overtures know no bounds… not even the head football coach’s wife (not that we blame him). 
• Oddly, USC is no longer recruiting big man Renardo Sidney (who moved to LA three yrs ago for marketing purposes).  Now he may be heading back home to Mississippi St?  Stay tuned on this one.
• Will Syracuse be the one-year football destination for Greg Paulus?
• The NBA’s early entry deadline was Sunday – here are a few of the last-minute entries:  Mississippi St.’s Jarvis Varnado (no agent), UConn’s Ater Majok (no agent), Tennessee’s Tyler Smith (no agent), USC’s Taj Gibson (no agent) and BYU’s Jonathan Tavernari (no agent). 
• Returning:  Iowa St.’s Craig Brackins (a major coup), Michigan’s Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims.
• Gary Parrish doesn’t believe that Davidson will recapture the Curry magic for quite some time. 
• It’s hard to believe this didn’t happen now that the FBI has brought charges against Karen Sypher for attempting to extort Rick Pitino for $10M, two cars, a paid-off house and college tuition.  Wow.  Regardless, we have to agree with Goodman when he says nothing good is ultimately coming from all of this.
• He was only “holding it” for someone named “Luck.”  Welcome to Nevada basketball in the post-Mark Fox era.
• Wichita St.’s Gregg Marshall got a one-year contract extension (to 2015) after an improved second year at the school.
• Good to see the NCAA gumshoes going after the big boys like Northeastern, who received two years probation on Friday.

Andy Katz wrote in his blog today that the NCAA Legislative Committee voted on Monday to make a rule change effective in 2010 that would shorten the amount of time that an early entry would have to ‘test the waters’ with NBA teams before making a final decision to enter the draft.

If the NCAA board of directors endorses the legislative panel’s decision to reduce the early entry decision window from six weeks to approximately one week, there won’t be any reasonable way for underclassmen to test the draft process. USA Today first reported the panel’s decision, which would make underclassmen decide by May 8 whether they were staying in the draft. The current deadline is 10 days before the draft in mid-June. (The rule would go into effect for next year’s draft class.)

This legislation was the compromise position after the ACC came to the table asking for a ten-day window following the conclusion of the national championship game.  We’ve written about this before, but let us reiterate for those of you who missed our first tirade: this is a TERRIBLE decision.

As Katz points out very clearly in his post, the withdrawal deadline would then become somewhere around the end of the first week of May each year, which would allow players a window of a mere 7-10 days in which to make themselves available for private workouts with NBA teams.  And if you’re like us and your collegiate days are well into the rear-view mirror, you may have forgotten that the end of April/beginning of May also usually coincides with exams for most college students around the country, even those who play basketball on the side.  In other words, the NCAA is making it that much harder for a prospective early entry to get good feedback on his status.

Let’s take a quick look at a system that generally works – the current one.  Last year, there were 69 American players who originally decided to test the waters.  Thirty-five of those players felt confident enough in their standing to stay in the draft, and 28 of those (80%) were actually selected on draft night in MSG (21 with guaranteed money in the first round).   Now we aren’t going to say what was going through the heads of every one of those 34 players who returned to school (guys like Josh Akognon, Chase Budinger, Jerel McNeal and of course the Carolina trio), but we’d absolutely wager that many of them iniitally thought they were ready for the NBA.  It was only after they were able to get objective feedback from NBA scouts and teams as to their projected draft status that they were able to make an informed decision to not cede their remaining eligibility on a gut feeling.

How quick we are to forget our history.  The reason the early entry withdrawal  rule was initially instituted was to allow players like Scotty Thurman and Thomas Hamilton to get good, objective feedback on their draft status prior to making a final decision.  It’s very easy to think you’re a lottery pick when you’re the best player on a successful college team and everyone around you is telling you that you’re a superstar.  It’s less easy to think that when scouts tell you that you’re undersized, need to work on your shooting or you’re slow for your position at the next level (i.e., the truth).   What the NCAA is endorsing here is the opportunity for more of the former and less of the latter, which will ultimately mean that more players are going to make an ill-informed gut-based decision to stay in the draft, only to be surprised when they’re not chosen six weeks later.  It’s bad for the players’ futures, who throw away an opportunity at a degree and further training in basketball; it’s bad for the schools who could benefit in many ways by getting key non-NBA-ready players to return (cough, cough, UNC), and it’s bad for the game itself, which is always enriched when the players who should still be playing at that level are actually doing so.

Now, we know who is driving this – the coaches (how dare some of these guys complain!).  Despite all the hollow and vacuous lip service they give to being there for their kids and wanting only what’s best for their players, what they’re really doing is making life easier on themselves.  By shaving five weeks from the early entry withdrawal deadline, it will now give Coach Blowhard another month to finish recruiting, shore up his roster and adequately plan for the next season.  There is some merit to this position – some – but by making it eminently more difficult for his players to learn their individual strengths and weaknesses from an objective source prior to the withdrawal deadline (e.g., the NBA Combine, scheduled to start in late May of this year),  they’re much more likely to fall back on gut instincts which will almost always favor the dream of the NBA over taking more exams.  Any benefit to the coach and program by this initiative is more than lost by enabling poor decisionmaking from the players.

From our stance, this is an unconscionable position for the coaches to take, especially given how much they talk about helping their players get to the next level, and we’re extremely disappointed in this decision.  Let’s hope the NCAA Board of Directors shoots it down next week.

There are only FIVE DAYS left to declare, kiddies!  Get your early entry paperwork in NOW!!!

• At least one report states that Duke’s Gerald Henderson will enter the draft.  And we thought we already knew this (about Tyreke Evans).
• Xavier’s Derrick Brown, Georgia Tech’s Gani Lawal and Mr. Game Winner, Scottie Reynolds, will all test the waters.   All three should be back in college next season. 
• Steph Curry – still thinking. 
• One dude who will not go pro this year is John Wall.  Luke Winn dissects his recruitment, while Gary Parrish all but pushes him down the aisle to explore the opportunity for him to go pro.  In a separate article, Winn discusses how John Calipari’s move to Kentucky impacted numerous top players in this year’s top 50.  Speaking of which, the final Scout top 100 list is out.
• Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy pleaded guilty to a reduced charge of disorderly conduct for his now-admitted verbal and physical abuse against a Cincinnati cabbie in late December.   What did it cost him?  40 hours of community service and no further “enrichment” of his current contract with Ole Miss.  Interesting.  The civil cases should be phenomenal theater. 
• What’s going on in Gator-Land?  Alex Tyus‘ departure (transfer, not NBA) is the seventh player Billy D. has lost in the past calendar year.   
• Purdue’s starting PG Lewis Jackson got community service and will await his punishment from Matt Painter for his recent DWI arrest on April 12. 
• Jason Whitlock nails at least one part of this Isiah to FIU piece – the part about the strip clubs. 
• Andy Staples takes a look at the boxed-in problem that side deals to the NCAA’s National Letter of Intent are causing.  Paging DeMarcus Cousins…
• Gary Parrish believes that the 09-10 season will be much stronger across the board thanks to the return of numerous lottery picks as well as an influx of prep talent who will have instant impacts (unlike this year, for the most part).

We’re trying to sort through some laptop issues as well as a long-term strategic analysis of the site, so bear with us as we’re only doing semi-regular updates this week…

• Georgetown should be in much better position to make a nice run in the Big East next season as BE FrOY Greg Monroe has decided to return for his sophomore season.
• Oklahoma’s Willie Warren will also return for his encore year.  It’s getting easier to fill out potential 2009-10 all-america lists now. 
• Notre Dame’s 09-10 success might hinge on the shoulders of Luke Harangody’s decision, of which he is currently waffling about.  He is expected to test the waters, but he’s uncertain about what his threshold will be to return.
• Staying in the Big East, Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn removed all doubt by signing with an agent.  We’ll never understand why marginal prospects with the option of returning to school make such a poor decision by closing off that option so early.
• Greg Paulus has received a scholarship offer to play at Michigan next year in football.  Others are probably coming.  Who would have guessed this kind of post-graduate recruiting war in a different sport would start over a Duke PG?
• Former national champion UCLA PG Cameron Dollar will leave Lorenzo Romar’s UW staff to take the head job at Seattle University, as it continues its transition into D1 basketball. 
• John Calipari’s Kentucky gig is off to a quick start as he evaluates returning talent and continues recruiting (even if he doesn’t have office keys yet). 
• Gary Parrish writes an interesting article about the coaching carousel, and how schools like Arizona, Georgia and Memphis got a little burned by overplaying their hand(s) and ill preparation.  Interesting piece.

.

Buzz:  Three More Significant Early Entries.

• Texas’ Damion James, who will not sign with an agent. 
• Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson, also testing the waters.
• Gonzaga’s Austin Daye, ditto.

Happy Income Redistribution Day, everyone!

• Who?  Depaul’s Dar Tucker (Mr. 0-18, with an agent) and Southern Miss’ Jeremy Wise (no agent) have decided to throw their hats in the early entry ring as well. 
• More Greg Paulus.  Thought we were rid of this guy.  So…  he’s not good enough to play for Duke at QB, but he might be at Michigan?  Wow, Rich Rodriguez has a lot further to go than we thought. 
• The Man Who Replaced Wooden.  Former UCLA and UAB coach Gene Bartow was recently diagnosed with stomach cancer, and will begin treatment immediately. 
• Dolla Dolla Bills.  Mizzou’s Mike Anderson parlayed 31 wins and an Elite 8 appearance into seven more years on his contract at a minimum of $1.35M per. 
• Isiah Will Work for Free (sorta).  FIU introduced Isiah Thomas as their new head coach today, and he will not take a salary of $200-300K this season (the Knicks are still paying him $12M for his final two years on his contract).  Jeff Goodman thinks there’s a reasonable chance it might work out for Isiah there, maybe he took some of those sleeping pills as well?  Mike Freeman has a slightly different take.
• Let’s Get Wattaded.  Georgetown guard Omar Wattad will transfer out of the program, destination unknown.